As you will have read elsewhere, Angus Taylor has replaced Sussan Ley as the leader of the Liberal Party. The significance of the occasion was further sharpened, from the perspective of this website, when Ley promptly announced she would be leaving parliament, requiring a by-election for the regional New South Wales seat of Farrer, which she has held since gaining it from the Nationals in 2001. This promises to be a radically complex contest involving both the Liberals and Nationals, with the later rated “likely” to run by a party source quoted in The Australian; One Nation, who have opened nominations for preselection; and perhaps two independents with substantial track records.
It could also lead to further state by-elections, as both the local state members have indicated they might run. Albury MP Justin Clancy said he would “consider carefully” whether to run for a Liberal preselection which, according to The Australian, “looks set to nominate a candidate from the Right”. Helen Dalton, who won the state seat of Murray for Shooters Fishers and Farmers in 2019 and retained it as an independent in 2023, said she had some “serious thinking to do” in deciding whether to run. Michelle Milthorpe, who ran as an independent in Farrer in 2025 with backing from Climate 200, has announced she will run.
Also on the immediate by-election calendar:
• The Victorian state seat of Nepean faces a by-election at a date yet to be determined following the resignation of former Liberal deputy leader Sam Groth. Lucy Callander of the Mornington Peninsula Leader reports the party has given special dispensation for Mornington mayor Anthony Marsh to run for preselection, despite not having hitherto been a party member. Also in the mix are former Frankston mayor Nathan Conroy, who ran unsuccessfully for the federal seat of Dunkley at the by-election in 2023 and the general election in 2025, and David Burgess, a Sorrento real estate agent and upper house candidate in 2022. Also mentioned have been Marty Barr, a senior executive at Myer and former adviser to Denis Napthine; Briony Camp, who ran under maiden name of Briony Hutton in Hastings at the 2022 election; Jacquie Blackwell, chair of the state party’s women’s council; and Alex Screen, a financial adviser.
• Last week’s resignation by the only Greens member in the Northern Territory parliament, Kat McNamara, has proceeded quickly to a date of March 7 being set for the by-election in her northern Darwin seat of Nightcliff. McNamara unseated former Labor Chief Minister Natasha Fyles by 36 votes at the August 2024 election, after an unusually weak flow of Country Liberal preferences to Labor. The Greens candidate for the by-election is Suki Dorras-Walker, a community legal service paralegal and former teacher who ran for the party in Fannie Bay in 2024. Labor’s candidate is Ed Smelt, a Darwin councillor and civil engineer. A Country Liberal candidate is expected to be named in the coming days.
Two items of polling to relate:
• Roy Morgan, whose weekly surveying is conducted from Monday to Saturday, went to print last night with results from its 1216 responses from Monday to Thursday. This showed a further two-and-a-half point drop for the Coalition vote to 20%, with Labor up two from an unusually soft result last week to 30.5%, with One Nation up half to 25% and the Greens down half to 13%. Respondent preference allocation was markedly favourable to Labor, giving them a blowout two-party lead over the Coalition of 58.5-41.5, out from 53.5-46.5. The change on 2025 election preference flows was more modest, from 53-47 to 55-45.
• A Tasmanian state poll from DemosAU offers a look into a parallel world without One Nation, finding both Liberal and Labor losing ground to all other comers since the July 2025 election. The Liberals are at 35%, down six from the previous poll in November, and five from the July election; Labor are on 23%, down one on November and three on July; the Greens are on 15%, unchanged on the last poll and up half a point on the election; Shooters Fishers and Farmers are on 4%, up two on November and one on July; independents are only 17%, up three on November and two on July; and others is on 6%, up two on the previous poll. The poll was conducted January 27 to February 12 from a sample of 1071.
A royal commission into the CFMEU could take a while. It would be a perpetual motion machine.
Diogenessays:
Sunday, February 15, 2026 at 6:02 pm
A royal commission into the CFMEU could take a while. It would be a perpetual motion machine.
_________________________________
I would convene the Star Chamber and sort it out quickly.
Resolve
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/one-nation-hunts-down-the-coalition-but-voters-give-taylor-some-ground-20260215-p5o2eh.html?btis
Graph of the day
https://mliebreich.substack.com/p/fission-versus-fusion-an-update
nath says:
Sunday, February 15, 2026 at 5:50 pm
Upnorthsays:
Sunday, February 15, 2026 at 5:49 pm
SL says:
Sunday, February 15, 2026 at 5:47 pm
Weirdly, nuclear energy is one of the few things that unites the Tories.
中华人民共和国
I guess they can’t split the Atom.
________________
Queensland master of comedy ova here.
中华人民共和国
Awwww you big softy. Embarrassing me like that. Did your Coke Zero arrive??
SLsays:
Sunday, February 15, 2026 at 6:05 pm
Graph of the day
______________________
Nice!
Further detail on the AUKUS shipyard announcement today. First set of works budget $3.9 billion, total shipyard budget $30 billion. In stages till late 2030s.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-02-15/down-payment-for-30b-adelaide-submarine-shipyard/106346484
Building the shipyard to a nuclear engineering standard is essential, and I have grumbled in the past that this was not yet happening. So its good they are moving. The lack of a published timetable will make it difficult to monitor progress.
lol SL
Dio:
In this country, we obey the laws of thermodynamics!
laughtong says:
Sunday, February 15, 2026 at 6:04 pm
Resolve
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/one-nation-hunts-down-the-coalition-but-voters-give-taylor-some-ground-20260215-p5o2eh.html?btis
…
The way the Age has written that up is as dodgy af
It appears that they asked two voting questions one asking voters to imagine that Sussan Ley was leader and the second that Angus Taylor was leader. Then they presented only the second set of numbers as though it was taken after he was leader even though for most respondents it was a hypothetical.
Of course we’re left guessing what Resolve actually did because unlike every other pollster (certainly APC members) they don’t and will not tell us how they presented the question to respondents in unambiguous terms through a methodology statement.
And Fairfax lets them get away with this sh*t
A vender/lessor of orange witches’ hats in Sydney, and/or a lawyer for the CFEMU are my two aspirations for the next life.
I read the Resolve poll with no paywall
https://removepaywalls.com/
So resolve is ALP 32, LNP 23 and ON 23 with little detail of anything else and no 2PP
m sure it won’t last long though.
Upnorth says:
Saturday, February 14, 2026 at 8:26 pm
Fulvio Sammut says:
Saturday, February 14, 2026 at 8:03 pm
Timmy was upset with carpet cleaners of unspecified ethnic origin.
Some one else muddied the waters over Uber Eats contractors/employees.
中华人民共和国
It was Nath who didn’t get his Coke Zero.
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
I’m confused !!!
As someone who has never ordered Uber Eats or someone who has never had someone
else, other than me or Ms 98.6, clean their carpet, and someone who has never drank Coke Zero,
I now feel that I’m missing out, out of touch, getting old, not supporting migrants or just don’t
waste money.
Call me old fashioned ?
Celebrate on election night in May 2028, if it happens, and not before.
The polls are not good for ALP at the moment. As you posted the right side of politics is having more numbers with 30% openly declaring themselves as MAGA.
I thought getting rid of Dutton will settle the things politically. But December 14th, 2025, changed everything, IMO.
Resolve poll numbers (differing from the last poll on 12 February)
ALP: 32% (+1)
LNP: 23% (+3)
ON: 23% (-2)
GRN: 11% (-1)
IND: 6% (-2)
OTH: 5% (=)
More here
https://www.smh.com.au/national/resolve-political-monitor-20210322-p57cvx.html
98.6says:
As someone who has never ordered Uber Eats
________________________
Me, get delivery like a G
See hungry Dogg’s gotta eat
I get mine every day, every week
Chicken wings to the crib I’m sittin’ in
Burger in the low-low
Hope they kept the pickle in
Wonton on a catamaran
Oodles of noodles, thank you, my man
Tacos to the chateau, please
SL @ #588 Sunday, February 15th, 2026 – 5:47 pm
Gina the Hutt must have her preeeeecioussss. No one else is going to keep funding the dried up residua of 80 year old marketing scams.
Yay. 🙂 Another Resolve poll.
A poll result from respondents totally devoid of any fact or knowledge.. it’s just a myth..
Ven:
Actually, I think the polls are looking pretty strong for the ALP right now, and they would probably win a reasonable majority on the numbers we’ve been seeing lately.
But there are danger signs there too, and if the government is too complacent on issues like cost-of-living and housing or gets caught up in one-scandal-too-many, the ALP primary is low enough that they don’t have to lose much to the various right-wing parties before things start looking rather scary.
So resolve is 52/48 to ALP assuming 75% of ON goes to the LNP, 80% greens to ALP and the rest 50/50.
And opposed by fools as well MI
Don’t support uber eats, they are more extractive than 20th century Texas oil men.
2PP & 2CP ALP vs PHON calculations for the February 14 Resolve poll.
ALP vs LNP: 54.3-45.7
ALP vs PHON: 56.7-43.3
Asha @ #622 Sunday, February 15th, 2026 – 6:32 pm
Yeah. I reckon they’ll get through this if they stick to their “We’ll do what we say we’ll do” strategy, so no breaking promises unless necessary and if they do, keep people in the loop so it doesn’t feel like a betrayal, no nasty surprises, and above all listen to what ordinary people are saying.
The Christian Right including Catholic fundamentalism is the single greatest threat to world peace & surviving the climate threat.
Rubio..
“We in America have no interest in being polite and orderly caretakers of the West’s managed decline,” said Rubio. “We do not seek to separate, but to revitalize an old friendship and renew the greatest civilization in human history.”
Civilization was an inescapable theme on Saturday morning in Munich, evoked by Rubio a dozen times in his speech and later touched on by his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi, who used the label to describe both China and Europe as partner — not rival — civilizations.
While Wang struck a different chord in his address to delegates, calling for improved global governance with the United Nations, Rubio reiterated Trump’s nations-first view on foreign policy and dismissed the UN as an effective arbiter of international relations.
“Rubio thinks very much about the competition between the United States and China,” said Walker, adding that despite the softer tone, Rubio echoed Vance’s message that a show of national strength was “the way to get things done,” and not the “liberal, international” approach promoted by the EU.
“For the European Union, the underlying ideas and the rhetoric Rubio was using here is actually quite troubling because the whole point of the European Union is almost to move beyond the idea of nation, and not to try to express ideas such as that the West is, as Rubio said, the greatest civilization in human history.”
https://www.dw.com/en/european-leaders-von-der-leyen-starmer-wadephul-welcome-rubio-speech-in-munich/a-75970369
New thread.
yabba @ #569 Sunday, February 15th, 2026 – 4:12 pm
Thank you.
Her questions fenced,
our troubled dreams.
His welcome gate,
a path revealed.
Good to see you Late Riser!
“ Thomas Brian Mutter says:
Sunday, February 15, 2026 at 6:36 pm
2PP & 2CP ALP vs PHON calculations for the February 14 Resolve poll.
ALP vs LNP: 54.3-45.7
ALP vs PHON: 56.7-43.3”
__________
So, despite the LNP-MSM-LIKUD axis of evil throwing everything including the kitchen sink at Albo and Labor over summer, a corresponding explosion of right wing-nut popularism, and an interest rate hike nothing of substance has changed for labor’s polling on those numbers since it won 94 seats at the federal election 9 months ago. Even after allowing for a 3 point bounce to the LNP this week following their leadership spill.
Of course, I think things are much worse for the LNP in the 88 seats that are classified as ‘metropolitan’ by the AEC. Replete as they are with younger, multicultural and higher educated Australians. So even less of a chance of the Tories finding a pathway back to the treasury benches than ever.
Kirsdarke says:
Sunday, February 15, 2026 at 6:24 pm
Resolve poll numbers (differing from the last poll on 12 February)
ALP: 32% (+1)
LNP: 23% (+3)
ON: 23% (-2)
GRN: 11% (-1)
IND: 6% (-2)
OTH: 5% (=)
————————
With federal lib/nats and one nation taking each primary votes of each other and 2pp
I will go on previous federal election results 2pp, not saying this is accurate ,
but the way im going whether it right or not, see at the federal election
this is only for Labor vs lib/nats
primary votes
Labor primary vote 32%
Lib/nats combined 23%
2pp
Labor 64%
Lib/nats 36%
”
Ashasays:
Sunday, February 15, 2026 at 6:32 pm
Ven:
Actually, I think the polls are looking pretty strong for the ALP right now, and they would probably win a reasonable majority on the numbers we’ve been seeing lately.
But there are danger signs there too, and if the government is too complacent on issues like cost-of-living and housing or gets caught up in one-scandal-too-many, the ALP primary is low enough that they don’t have to lose much to the various right-wing parties before things start looking rather scary.
”
Asha
The ‘cost of living’ won’t ease before next election, if at all, housing crisis will not be solved unless federal government opts for ‘Granny flat’s type public housing, electricity prices won’t come down unless federal government provides atleast 6 hours free power/day (which will be 3 hours from July 1, 2026).
We have seen how ferocious the media was against Albanese and his government after Bondi shootings.
‘Get Albo’ is the mantra of Australian legacy media.
BW@4.47pm
That was my visceral reaction when I hear her say that. But “idiot” was the word I used.
It reminded me of the context when she announced her “No more work from home for public servants.” She told the story of her son starting an internship at a firm in Canberra(?). She suggested that they get coffee together on his first day, since they would both be in Canberra. Her son told her he would be working from home on the first day of his internship, and she said, in releasing a new Federal Opposition policy “who works from home during an internship? And it has to stop!”.
So, she later insisted it would only apply to Commonwealth public servants, but we all understood that
* Her son was working for a private company
* Given that his situation was what had drawn her ire, we assumed that once she stopped public servants from working from home, good ole private enterprise would have the moral authority to do the same.
* Given the high cost of housing and child care, during COVID, many families had moved further out from the city than comfortable commuting distance, assuming around 50% work from home was here to stay. They had based their mortgages and work situations around it.
Of course they were going to preference against the party suggesting this policy. And all the small businesses who were thriving because people were going to their local coffee shop and lunch place to get a break from the home office? Well they were probably not going to preference the Coalition over the ALP either.
So after that announcement the ALP was probably already halfway to 94 seats.
And for the first day for Hume’s son as an Intern being work from home makes perfect sense to me. Hosting Intern’s (or Vacation Scholars as we call them in my industry) is actually a lot of unpaid work for the host. And the amount of form filling and sheer documentation that needs to be read through on the first day – do it from home! Why drag someone into the office to tell them “sit here, read this, and by the way I will check in on you at 5 pm after I have finished my insert here* tasks that I will actually be working on until at least 9pm tonight.
* Enforceable Undertaking / Policy document in response to the Royal Commission/ Teaching / ARC or NHMRC grant writing / Research paper that I need to finish before applying for the former …
If it turns out her son was actually in at work, and had just other plans, then it is one of the most consequential outcomes ever from a young guy trying to say, politely “not today mum”!
And the other really dumb policy announced by the Coalition before the May 2025 election was ” Nuclear, we are going to nuclear” to get clean energy to deal with climate change. And then Dutton himself says, at a press conference, that “of course to make nuclear work we will have to withdraw some renewable energy from the grid”.
So, all those suburban coalition voters, who had installed large numbers of solar panels on their largish houses heard “you know that pay-back time you calculated for your panels? Forget it. By government decree you will get nothing, in abundance!”
In early February 2025 I was at the hairdresser- small business – not the natural home of the socialist left. I commented that I was weighing up getting solar panels and a battery soon. At that stage there was a good subsidy for solar panels. The response was amazing!
Hairdressers, clients, they all lined up to show me their apps and how well they were doing from their solar panels. Most, at that stage, had not opted for batteries, because “the payback time was too long”.
There were just everyday people, who were more than capable, thank you very much, of understanding the economics of power generation, and how to benefit from it.
And then Dutton threatens to rip their solar panels out? While he did not say that he would do exactly that, we all understand the economics of power supply these days. We know what “grid charges” are. So a quite numerate electorate figured that they would pay for Dutton’s nuclear fantasy through “grid charges”.
And that provided the second half of the 94 seat victory.
And Hume has just doubled down on that stupidity!! As well as her earlier No work from home stupidity.
SL @ 6:05 pm
Fission and Fusion?
Just another day in the COALition.
“When dementia addled elderly poorlean is stuck in a tinkle soaked Nursing home. Who’s going
to wipe her bed sore ridden arse after she’s just gone? Nepalese and Bangladeshi nursing assistants, that’s who. No skippy born and bread adult will go within cooee of a Nursing home job at the facilities where my elderly relatives live, and they’re the expensive religious ones where you’d think they’d mainly hire good christian white folk, not brown idol worshippers.”
My anecdotal knowledge: nursing homes outside the metropolitan capital cities have a much lower rate of non-English speaking background personal care attendants, and also much lower rates of turnover and issues of being terminated because of failing to keep up with basic requirements.
Also, Pauline is one tough cookie. She may very well be amongst the 50 percent of people who don’t need residential aged care at all. She could be actively involved in politics all the way into her nineties and simply die of old age with all her independence and marbles intact.
And not all elderly people develop dementia. Approximately 30% of people who live to be over a hundred remain free of it.