Nine Newspapers reports a new Resolve Strategic poll which dealt with last week’s complications by asking respondents separate questions about voting intention in Sussan Ley and Angus Taylor leadership scenarios through to Thursday, at which point it stopped asking about Ley. The Taylor scenario results have been published as the headline, showing Labor on 32%, up two on last month’s poll and a point higher than in the Sussan Ley scenario; the Coalition on 23%, down five on last month but up three on the Ley scenario; One Nation on 23%, up five last month but down two on the Ley scenario; and the Greens on 11%, up one on last month but down one on the Ley scenario. No two-party preferred is provided, but I make this out to be 54-46 to Labor over the Coalition based on 2025 election preference flows. UPDATE: An accompanying report says the poll has Labor leading 55-45 on respondent-allocated preferences.
Anthony Albanese records a combined very good and good rating of 35%, unchanged on last time, and a combined poor and very poor of 55%, down one. A final result is provided for Sussan Ley showing her on 27% positive, down eight, and 50% negative, up eight, with Albanese leading 38-22 on preferred prime minister, out from 33-29. A question on preferred Liberal leader had Ley on 19%, Andrew Hastie on 13%, Angus Taylor on 10%, Tim Wilson on 4% and Ted O’Brien on 3%, with 52% uncommitted. We are further told of various leaders’ “net likeability” ratings: minus 12 for Albanese, minus 11 for Ley, plus four for Hastie, plus seven for Pauline Hanson, minus eight for David Littleproud and minus eight for Chris Bowen, though I consider such numbers of limited value in the absence of name recognition and uncommitted ratings. The overall survey period for the poll was Sunday to Saturday, with a sample of 1800.
Upnorth,
I can’t argue with any of that. It’s certainly true that our system is better than most.
Nevertheless, it still gets up my nose when certain persons celebrate the system producing a result that suits them even though it’s clearly not democratic, then turn around and whinge the next time things go against them.
-ABC
Well, he hasn’t been stripped of his titles of a prince and a duke. He was created a prince under Letters Patent issued by George V in 1917, and, as a duke, by his mother in 1986.
The only way he can be de-princed is by Letters Patent issued by his old man, amending the Letters Patent of his great-grandfather, George V, and his dear mother.
And to de-duke him would require an Act of the UK Parliament or another way known as Royal Prerogative Revocation. This method is untested and probably unconstitutional.
Thus, until his father and Starmer decide to make it formal, AMW is still a prince & a duke. Incidentally, Charles 1 went to the chopping block in 1649 as a king.
For many people Lent, if they acknowledge it at all, is the 40 day period leading up to a four day long weekend during which they consume copious amounts of chocolate and hot cross buns.
The fairest electoral system would be proportional representation. Putting aside Constitutional issues and assuming that it operated in a Lower House of 150 seats on the numbers in the Resolve Poll featured in this thread, the result would be:
Labor 48
Green 16
Coalition 35
One Nation 34
Someone Else 17
Good luck forming a Government out of that lot.
davidwh,
‘Crusification’: Brilliant! I’m putting that in my lexicon right next to ‘coronated’ (Kirsdarke’s contribution to the world of neologisms.)
For sure Upnorth, for sure. But it is the developing storm in the name of PHON that is worrying me.
Canadians and Aussies are pulling out all their stops to keep crazy Tories.
It is now established fact based on polls that PHON has become substantial force in the electorate. As per polls, they are eating up L-NP live. I don’t know whether it is the snake eating its own tail.
If you look at the history of modern history of France and Germany in the last 20 years or so, the far-right and hard-right have gained substantial ground in politics.
End rant.
Happy to help. 🙂
Wish I could edit the post. 🙂
So, according to the ABC Trump is releasing the files on aliens and UFO encounters because “Trump told reporters Mr Obama “gave classified information. He is not supposed to be doing that”.
The president did not specify which part of Mr Obama’s remarks were classified, but claimed “he made a big mistake”.
Of his own beliefs about aliens, Mr Trump said: “I don’t know if they are real or not.”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-02-20/trump-orders-release-ufo-uap-extraterrestrials-files/106370826
_________________________
So it is some sort of dig a Obama from the man who filled the Mar a Lago toilet with stolen classified papers. I thought it was more a case of Trump watching a rerun of Independence Day at 3am and believing it was real.
Anyhow, why just aliens and UFOs, why not the whole of the X-Files?, cmon, what about Big Foot, Loch Ness monster, Beast of Bodmin Moor, Yeti, Ghosts/Spooks and Spectres, Psychic and Telekinetic powers, poltergeists, mass hypnosis, tarot cards, the existence of the Ministry of Magic and jugglers.
I’m glad you can’t edit the post. I reckon it’s great! New words have to come from somewhere.
And you keep coming up with these crazy loopholes in the US Electoral system, which Trump would take up without any hesitation.
Putin did that in Russia. When he came up with successive term constraints, he made Medvedev the President for one term while he remained PM of Duma, and then came back the next term, changed the rules and apparently became President for life.
Has the surge in the One Nation vote absorbed that of the other Far Right minors – Libertarians, Shooters, Christianists and Palmists? It makes a big difference in how we interpret polls. For example, if One Nation’s 23% includes most of the vote that had previously gone to other Far Right minors, the “Other” vote would, via preferences, mostly go to Labor, given that the remainder would be Teals, Cannabis, Animals, Socialists and local independents.
Example from 2025 election – seat of Hunter:
One Nation – 16.1%
Other RWNJ – 8.3%
I miss Nadia (or nadia, as she insisted on casing it).
I just wanted to say that in case she’s lurking around and might see this post.
Ramadan happens to coincide with Lent this year, but it moves back by about 10 days every year as the Islamic calendar is a lunar one, and thus shorter than the Gregorian one.
JM From Qld says:
Friday, February 20, 2026 at 10:53 pm
Ramadan happens to coincide with Lent this year, but it moves back by about 10 days every year as the Islamic calendar is a lunar one, and thus shorter than the Gregorian one.
———-
The Orthodox Churches still follow the Julian Calendar as did Catholics until the Gregorian reform. Are you saying the Islamic calendar is the same as the Roman Empire??
How amusing.
@Ante Meridian:
“Anyone who lauds our electoral system when it produces a result they approve of had better be prepared to keep doing so when it bites them (and the country) on the arse.”
Short memory AM? Any regular Labor voter has already seen Australia elect plenty of shit conservative governments, including in pretty close circumstances (like Howard losing the primary vote to Beazley) without cracking the shits at how this makes the overall system unfair. Unlike Trump and unlike certain minor party voters after the 2025 election.
JM From Qld,
Lunar calendars are usually corrected every few years, aren’t they? So the islamic calendar should jump forward every now and then instead of always falling further and further behind?
You are absolutely right Upnorth. PHON needs to be fought every step of the way.
Upnorth
Oh it’s bitten me and Australia on the arse plenty of times. In my home state of Queensland the QLP made sure Labor couldn’t win for decades. Federally the DLP did the same.
Labor often won over 50% of the TPP vote but still lost elections.
Once between 1956 and 1989, in 1972, Labor outpolled the coalition on primary votes but the QLP (in its last hurrah) still meant that Labor had less than 50% in the 2pp. The myth of Labor being cheated of government in Joh’s Queensland is a myth.
Arky says:
Friday, February 20, 2026 at 11:05 pm
@Ante Meridian:
“Anyone who lauds our electoral system when it produces a result they approve of had better be prepared to keep doing so when it bites them (and the country) on the arse.”
Short memory AM? Any regular Labor voter has already seen Australia elect plenty of shit conservative governments, including in pretty close circumstances (like Howard losing the primary vote to Beazley) without cracking the shits at how this makes the overall system unfair. Unlike Trump and unlike certain minor party voters after the 2025 election.
中华人民共和国
Labor also won the 2PP votes in 1954 and 1961 but as we know didn’t gain office.
One year since Arange started posting.
Prediction record:
Correctly predicted WA state election 2PP; Predicted a 2PP of 57.0%, result was 57.1%. (mainly just looked at the polls)
Wrongly Predicted Conservative popular vote win in Canada; would’ve been right if I used the version of the keys I use now.
Correctly predicted 2PP ALP win in Federal election. Was 3.7% off. Correctly saw that something was wrong with the keys at the time.
Correctly predicted Liberal popular vote win in Tasmania near the start of the campaign with Arange’s Keys, when YouGov had them 3 points behind.
Correctly predicted Kiama Labor win
Correctly predicted both NJ and VA gubernatorial elections.
Wrongly predicted Hitchinbrook by-election, however, still showed a chance for the LNP to win.
Bean
Don’t make such sweeping statements. No. I am not a fisherman and never went to fishing in my life.
Oakeshott Country says:
Friday, February 20, 2026 at 11:14 pm
Upnorth
Oh it’s bitten me and Australia on the arse plenty of times. In my home state of Queensland the QLP made sure Labor couldn’t win for decades. Federally the DLP did the same.
Labor often won over 50% of the TPP vote but still lost elections.
Once between 1956 and 1989, in 1972, Labor outpolled the coalition on primary votes but the QLP (in its last hurrah) still meant that Labor had less than 50% in the 2pp. The myth of Labor being cheated of government in Joh’s Queensland is a myth.
中华人民共和国
When the Aboriginal community of Wujul-Wujul was deliberately excised from the marginal National Party electorate of Barron River and placed into the then safe Labor Electorate of Cook by the National Party appointed Electoral Commission, you know the jig is up cobber.
When Theo Russell Copper,as Premier, went to the 1989 election as the Member for Roma he represented 8,200 voters. Wayne Goss as Leader of the Opposition represented 29,200.
Labor had plenty to gripe about matey.
The maldistribution of seats occurred and was a Queensland tradition tgoing back to the 19th century but that has nothing to do with your false claim that “ Labor often won over 50% of the TPP vote but still lost elections.”
In SA, Labor won 4 elections in a row and lost the 2pp in 3/4. One by 47/53!
That’s when you start questioning democracy. That’s a mandate!! For the loser.
Omar
Told ya that Epstein could have worked as spy for Israel and Russia!
Files reveal Epstein was offered chance to buy US Pentagon, FBI buildings
New files show Epstein, who had close ties to Israel, was offered sensitive US government real estate deals.
https://www-aljazeera-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2026/2/19/files-reveal-epstein-was-offered-chance-to-buy-us-pentagon-fbi-buildings?amp_gsa=1&_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQGsAEggAID#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=17715837270756&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&share=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.aljazeera.com%2Fnews%2F2026%2F2%2F19%2Ffiles-reveal-epstein-was-offered-chance-to-buy-us-pentagon-fbi-buildings
“Among millions of emails published last month, an FBI informant wrote in a memo that Epstein was a “Mossad Agent” working for Israel.
“Epstein was close to the former Prime Minister of Israel, Ehud Barak, and trained as a spy under him,” the memo adds.
Epstein maintained a decade-long relationship with Ehud Barak, a former Israeli prime minister and one-time senior military intelligence figure. Barak visited Epstein’s New York townhouse more than 30 times between 2013 and 2017.
The ties between Epstein and Israel have come into sharp focus following the release of the documents. Beyond his interactions with members of the global elite, including Barak, the files document Epstein’s financial support for Israeli groups, including Friends of the Israeli army and the settler organisation the Jewish National Fund, as well as his connections to the Mossad, Israel’s overseas intelligence agency.”
The Coalition would still have probably won most of the elections that it did in Bjelke-Peterson’s time without the Bjelkemander, but it still resulted in both Labor and the Liberals winning significantly less seats than they would have in a properly democratic one-vote, one-value system.
Dio
Last I heard from Concord a few months ago was a very angry meeting with the “higher target”. Haven’t spoken to my source for a while.
Yellow ad on the front page of this morning’s Courier Mail, third or fourth day in a row.
All mention the Titanic in them
No, not the Titanic 11.
“Message to Angus Taylor from Clive Palmer,
Rearranging The Deck Chairs On The Titanic Did Not Stop It From Sinking”
With two smiling photos of Clive.
You maybe true. But he was in power for a long time due to gerrymandering of QLD state electoral.
However, my point is, based on what posted, he could have lost election(s), which would have led to QLD Labor government.
Who knows how things would have turned if QLD Labor stopped the continuous run Bjelke-Peterson government.
Asha
1972 was a likely lose for Joh but the presence of QLP and a lack of full distribution to get a 2pp makes it difficult to know. The others probably did have a 2pp greater than 50% for the coalition.
For those interested in a longer read on the intelligence environment leading up to Putin’s reckless and bloody invasion of imperial conquest in Ukraine, this is worth reading. It draws attention to the errors of judgement made by advisors and decisionmakers alike, and on all sides alike. Yes, including those made even by the most clear-cut hero of this war among all the leaders involved: President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
“A war foretold:
how the CIA and MI6 got hold of Putin’s Ukraine plans and why nobody believed them”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2026/feb/20/a-war-foretold-cia-mi6-putin-ukraine-plans-russia
And another thing that really gets up my nose…
Those who defend the system that gets one party umpteen seats with about four or five percent of the vote while other parties get more than ten percent and zero seats by saying, (essentially) ‘It’s the system, suck it up’, only to immediately start whingeing about the Senate.
To them I say, “The Senate is also part of the system. Suck it up.”
Rex Douglassays:
Friday, February 20, 2026 at 3:17 pm
The Dolphin Essential (2025) superceded the Dolphin Dynamic and Dolphin Sport.
BYD are continuing the development of the Dolphin in 2026, as is the norm for all models.
I mentioned the Dolphin as a friend ordered the Essential about 3 weeks ago and collected it at their Clayton office yesterday.
– – – – – – – –
Rather late on (had a busy evening) but thanks for the extra info, Rex.
The dealer I visited didn’t make that clear. Will be taking another look – as you say, looks like great value for money.
Diogenes: SA Labor’s knack of getting conservative independents to work with them helps. Of those three elections between 2002 and 2014, two of them were minority governments. Getting a minority of seats from a minority of votes seems fair enough – they played the game better with the crossbench. It’s only 2010 that sticks out as a wrong-side winner (26/47 seats from 48.4% 2pp).
Entropy says:
Friday, February 20, 2026 at 6:27 pm
Surprised those on here that always bring up Sudan have failed to do so today. Considering we finally have a UN possible genocide ruling.
“The United Nations’ Independent International Fact-Finding Mission for the Sudan has said the siege and capture of Al-Fasher by a paramilitary group bears “the hallmarks of genocide”.
https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/sudan-civil-war-genocide-united-nations/9ci878kco
Entropy, I had it in the DP yesterday. Maybe you should read it sometime. 😉
Wasn’t 1969 QLD election another with a Labor primary win? Could be getting my figures muddled, though.
Asha says:
Friday, February 20, 2026 at 9:08 pm
Yesterday I had a search on YouTube for a clip of that drunk Olympics reporter that went viral. One of the first results was from Sky’s channel.
I click on it to find that that the one and half minute video began with a minute of Chris Kenny going on about Albo and the ISIS brides, before finally cutting to less than thirty seconds of the actual clip advertised in the title and thumbnail.
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
They do that sort of stuff all the time.
I’m almost embarrassed to say I watch it.
BUT I do watch it because of that saying “Know Thy Enemy”.
Sometimes, no mostly, I will click on a story and click on mute,
then wait till the bullshit passes and just watch what I want.
Works a treat.
Going back to Queensland State Elections post The 1957 Spilt, the following is interesting clearly showing how the DLP supported the reelection of the NLP until 1972. Labor went very close to winning the a primary vote in 1966.
The 1974 election was a disaster for Labor even though they beat the Nationals by 12%. Liberal preferences flowed strongly to the National Party in that poll and following.
So going back to Ante Meridins original post, preferential voting has worked both in favour and against the Party I think best to manage Politics in Australia.
However as stated earlier whilst it’s no means perfect, combined with compulsory voting tends to give our Nation fairly centrist stable Government. Night all.
Queensland State Elections – Primary Vote (%)
1957–1989
1957
ALP: 42.0
Country: 19.5
Liberal: 24.0
QLP (DLP): 23.0
1960
ALP: 46.7
Country: 19.9
Liberal: 24.4
DLP: 7.9
1963
ALP: 44.8
Country: 21.3
Liberal: 23.7
DLP: 7.5
1966
ALP: 49.1
Country: 20.9
Liberal: 22.7
DLP: 6.5
1969
ALP: 45.0
Country: 21.4
Liberal: 23.7
DLP: 6.5
1972
ALP: 46.7
Country/National: 20.9
Liberal: 22.2
DLP: 4.4
1974
ALP: 40.1
National: 28.0
Liberal: 32.3
1977
ALP: 46.7
National: 35.1
Liberal: 24.0
1980
ALP: 45.0
National: 27.9
Liberal: 22.0
1983
ALP: 44.0
National: 38.9
Liberal: 18.0
1986
ALP: 41.3
National: 39.6
Liberal: 13.9
1989
ALP: 50.8
National: 24.0
Liberal: 23.7
It feels good to live in a place where the vast majority of the population can make a collective decision, and sometimes put petty partisanship aside.
Boerwar 9.14pm
That’s the comment that I’ve liked the best tonight.
It sort of explains the ON apparition and how it is fueled.
Only this week, a ON “philosopher” was explaining to me how solar panels were part of the “leftish” climate change hoax.
It seems that solar panels around his farm are heating the air around his farm and this prevents his farm receiving its share of the expected rainfall!
The % of voters intending to vote ON probably correlates with the % of stupids out there wanting to “hang on to every litre of water”.
It’s approximately the same % of voters that became convinced that the “voice referendum” would destroy their right to possess ownership of everything and the “rising up” of indigenous hoards would take all the fish in the sea and hide all the gold in inland Australia.
@Ante Meridian
I’m not sure, but considering there are internal arguments every year about when the month ticks over (traditionally the moon must be visualised by the naked eye – some also consider local vs international sighting vs scientific calculation of the lunar phases) it wouldn’t surprise me.
Bob Carr described that as “majority votes in majority seats” when a journalist asked the same question you are asking after his first election win.
Dennis Shanahan also predicted that John Howard could win with 2PP of 47/53 just before 2007 federal election.
Horrible nightmarish day for Trump.
Stunning reversal for Trump. His biggest loss yet in this term.
US Supreme Court strikes down Trump’s global tariffs 6-3, terms them illegal
A Chief Justice John Roberts-led bench upheld a lower court ruling that Trump exceeded his authority by invoking the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to levy broad import taxes.
https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/us-supreme-court-strikes-down-donald-trumps-sweeping-global-tariffs-terms-measures-illegal-2871795-2026-02-20
Trump lost almost all his leverage with other countries after SCOTUS tariff ruling. Now he can only threaten them with brute force saying things like I will bomb you to smithereens if you don’t give what I want.
Associated Press
Supreme Court strikes down Trump’s sweeping tariffs
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2026/2/20/2369583/-Supreme-Court-strikes-down-Trump-s-sweeping-tariffs?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_4&pm_medium=web
Democrats don’t want you to forget the cost of Trump’s dumb tariffs
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2026/2/20/2369594/-Democrats-don-t-want-you-to-forget-the-cost-of-Trump-s-dumb-tariffs?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_1&pm_medium=web
Read rest of the statements from other Democratic party leaders on SCOTUS tariff ruling.
PP
Where are you? Now globalists win. Your head must be hurting a lot now. 🙂
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2026/2/20/2369456/-Offshore-wind-triumphs-over-Trump-in-court-but-future-projects-face-delays?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_7&pm_medium=web
SL
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2026/2/20/2369456/-Offshore-wind-triumphs-over-Trump-in-court-but-future-projects-face-delays?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_7&pm_medium=web
Continuing my post @5:23 am
Offshore wind triumphs over Trump in court, but future projects face delays
“The five East Coast offshore wind projects that recently won court victories over the Trump administration have restarted construction, but they make up just a small fraction of Atlantic states’ ambitious plans for offshore wind. And the dozens of projects that have yet to start construction have little chance of advancing while Trump remains in office.
“If you were going to make the best estimate of what’s going to happen, it would be that no other projects other than these five are going to move forward over the next three years,” said Warren Leon, executive director of the Clean Energy States Alliance, a nonprofit coalition of state energy agencies.”
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The Daily Beast
@thedailybeast
The Coast Guard was trying to find a missing service member when officials say Kristi Noem intervened in the search-and-rescue mission.
From thedailybeast.com
11:29 PM · Feb 17, 2026
·
1.2M
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Coast Guard Brass Secretly Fume at ICE Barbie Over Jaw-Dropping Order
https://www.thedailybeast.com/coast-guard-brass-secretly-fume-at-ice-barbie-over-jaw-dropping-order/?utm_source=twitter_owned_tdb&utm_medium=socialflow&utm_campaign=owned_social&via=twitter_page
“I was so brave I wanted to give myself the Congressional Medal of Honor. “- Don the Depraved
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2026/2/20/2369555/-I-was-so-brave-I-wanted-to-give-myself-the-Congressional-Medal-of-Honor-Don-the-Depraved?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web
Trump is becoming more and more uninhibited as days go by.