Nine Newspapers reports a new Resolve Strategic poll which dealt with last week’s complications by asking respondents separate questions about voting intention in Sussan Ley and Angus Taylor leadership scenarios through to Thursday, at which point it stopped asking about Ley. The Taylor scenario results have been published as the headline, showing Labor on 32%, up two on last month’s poll and a point higher than in the Sussan Ley scenario; the Coalition on 23%, down five on last month but up three on the Ley scenario; One Nation on 23%, up five last month but down two on the Ley scenario; and the Greens on 11%, up one on last month but down one on the Ley scenario. No two-party preferred is provided, but I make this out to be 54-46 to Labor over the Coalition based on 2025 election preference flows. UPDATE: An accompanying report says the poll has Labor leading 55-45 on respondent-allocated preferences.
Anthony Albanese records a combined very good and good rating of 35%, unchanged on last time, and a combined poor and very poor of 55%, down one. A final result is provided for Sussan Ley showing her on 27% positive, down eight, and 50% negative, up eight, with Albanese leading 38-22 on preferred prime minister, out from 33-29. A question on preferred Liberal leader had Ley on 19%, Andrew Hastie on 13%, Angus Taylor on 10%, Tim Wilson on 4% and Ted O’Brien on 3%, with 52% uncommitted. We are further told of various leaders’ “net likeability” ratings: minus 12 for Albanese, minus 11 for Ley, plus four for Hastie, plus seven for Pauline Hanson, minus eight for David Littleproud and minus eight for Chris Bowen, though I consider such numbers of limited value in the absence of name recognition and uncommitted ratings. The overall survey period for the poll was Sunday to Saturday, with a sample of 1800.
From the end of the previous thread:
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Sunday, February 15, 2026 at 6:48 pm
“ Thomas Brian Mutter says:
Sunday, February 15, 2026 at 6:36 pm
2PP & 2CP ALP vs PHON calculations for the February 14 Resolve poll.
ALP vs LNP: 54.3-45.7
ALP vs PHON: 56.7-43.3”
__________
So, despite the LNP-MSM-LIKUD axis of evil throwing everything including the kitchen sink at Albo and Labor over summer, a corresponding explosion of right wing-nut popularism, and an interest rate hike nothing of substance has changed for labor’s polling on those numbers since it won 94 seats at the federal election 9 months ago. Even after allowing for a 3 point bounce to the LNP this week following their leadership spill.
Of course, I think things are much worse for the LNP in the 88 seats that are classified as ‘metropolitan’ by the AEC. Replete as they are with younger, multicultural and higher educated Australians. So even less of a chance of the Tories finding a pathway back to the treasury benches than ever.
I reckon if Taylor is unable to get the L/NP vote above 30% by the end of 2027, they’ll switch to Hastie.
It’ll be interesting to watch the next round of polls, starting with this one I guess, LNP already taking back some One Nation votes
Combined majors on 55%, can they get back to 60% plus?
Possible small bounce for the Coalition that needs to be confirmed by more polling.
davidwh says:
Sunday, February 15, 2026 at 6:51 pm
Possible small bounce for the Coalition that needs to be confirmed by more polling.
中华人民共和国
Dead Cat bounce cobber??
It originated from an old Wall Street saying: “Even a dead cat will bounce once if it falls far enough.” A dead cat bounce, also known as a “sucker rally,” is a slang financial expression describing a sharp but temporary increase in share prices after a major decline.
I’ll stick by my gut feeling that Taylor will take the Libs and the Coalition back to 30%, and ON will get back to 15%
House of Representatives seat count according to the February 14 Resolve poll:
ALP: 92 seats
LNP: 34 seats
PHON: 6 seats
GRN: 2 seats
T-IND: 11 seats
IND: 3 seats
OTH: 2 seats
From previous thread
Asha
The ‘cost of living’ won’t ease before next election, if at all, housing crisis will not be solved unless federal government opts for ‘Granny flat’s type public housing, electricity prices won’t come down unless federal government provides atleast 6 hours free power/day (which will be 3 hours from July 1, 2026).
We have seen how ferocious the media was against Albanese and his government after Bondi shootings.
‘Get Albo’ is the mantra of Australian legacy media.
The only way to deal with ON is by moving more to the Right. Hastie is realistically the only option to ensure that ON does not become the Official Opposition or the senior right-of-centre party.
Whether he can sell himself to peel off votes from the suburban, lower-middle-class Labor voters by propagating the CULTURE WARS remains to be seen.
If, like me, you think there are not enough stories about Australian truck trailers, check these out:
https://thedriven.io/2026/02/10/how-battery-powered-truck-trailers-can-cut-diesel-use-by-up-to-50-pct/
https://electrek.co/2026/02/14/genius-adding-solar-panels-to-semi-trailers-is-an-idea-so-obvious-it-hurts/
I reckon the damage has been done to the Liberals, ON will stay in the 20% range at the expense of the LNP. Give the voters the choice of two racist tory parties and they will choose the real one.
Timmy
Liberal Party moving to the right makes no sense when the Liberal Party is losing metro and country seats to its left.
Ven, there’s a good chance that electricity prices will drop mid-year due to the significant drops in wholesale prices in the last two quarters as well as the futures prices:
Dr Fumbles McStupid
Liberals and Conservatives should make it official by splitting.
What will Price do if Angus sees her for the political poison she is and doesn’t promote her to the opposition front bench? Then again he isn’t that bright but…
https://www.news.com.au/national/politics/come-at-me-why-jacinta-nampijinpa-price-wont-apologise-over-indian-migration-controversy/news-story/0d11e3b7f48edf926be3b8341e01432b
SL says:
Sunday, February 15, 2026 at 7:03 pm
If, like me, you think there are not enough stories about Australian truck trailers, check these out:
South Australian company VE Motion has launched Australia’s first commercially available powered trailer system for heavy transport, offering a large battery pack for the trailer – instead of the prime mover – that it says can cut diesel use by up to 50 per cent.
____________________________
How about having wind turbines on the roof as well, faster you go more energy and pipe it to the batteries, even more savings.
If the voters were serious about who they wanted to lead the federal liberal party ,
and got the 3rd pick Angus Taylor on 10%/
Will the federal lib/nats improve ? .
Late Risersays:
Sunday, February 15, 2026 at 6:44 pm
Her questions fenced,
our troubled dreams.
His welcome gate,
a path revealed.
_______________________
Have missed your poetry in the mornings.
Former Victorian premier Jeff Kennett has urged the Coalition and Pauline Hanson’s One Nation to strike a preference deal ahead of November’s state election, declaring all “reasonable” parties and independents have a duty to unite to end Labor’s “corrupt” 14 years in office.
Mr Kennett said there was a growing view in the community that the Labor governments led by Daniel Andrews and his successor Jacinta Allan had been plagued by corruption from the outset, predicting the Coalition would win the next election and govern in minority with One Nation and independents from Melbourne’s west.
His intervention comes after a DemosAU/PremierNational poll showed One Nation’s primary vote surging to 21 per cent in Victoria – just two points behind Labor on 23 per cent and within striking distance of the Coalition on 29 per cent – a result that would decimate Labor but intensify debate over preference flows on the right.
Two early tests of One Nation’s momentum will come over the next few months with by-elections in the state seat of Nepean, triggered by the abrupt resignation of former deputy Liberal leader Sam Groth, and in Sussan Ley’s federal seat of Farrer in southwestern NSW. One Nation will announce its Nepean candidate within days.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/jeff-kennett-calls-for-coalitionone-nation-deal-amid-polling-surge/news-story/4d883322a7294561fd433c7301693bad?amp
Timmysays:
Sunday, February 15, 2026 at 7:01 pm
The only way to deal with ON is by moving more to the Right. Hastie is realistically the only option to ensure that ON does not become the Official Opposition or the senior right-of-centre party.
______________
If you are a Labor strategist do you want ON to replace the LNP as the senior right of center party?
There are some serious advantages if that occurred.
Dingbat says:
Sunday, February 15, 2026 at 7:11 pm
Oh good, another member of the Scroll Past Club. I thought he’d done his dash but he’s back.
___________
Much safer exercise than what Andrew Earlwood indulges in 🙂
nath says:
Sunday, February 15, 2026 at 7:15 pm
Timmysays:
Sunday, February 15, 2026 at 7:01 pm
The only way to deal with ON is by moving more to the Right. Hastie is realistically the only option to ensure that ON does not become the Official Opposition or the senior right-of-centre party.
______________
If you are a Labor strategist do you want ON to replace the LNP as the senior right of center party?
There are some serious advantages if that occurred.
_______________
Disagree. Coalition is a known quantity. ONP also wouldn’t have a Teal problem. Better the devil you know.
Riffing off SL’s fission/fusion graph from the previous thread and Jane Hume’s renewed enthusiasm for nuclear at any cost, I thought I’d leap ahead of the curve to give you the Small Modular Fusion Reactor.
https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/products/compact-fusion.html
Prediction: it’ll take less than a week before Jane, Ted and Dan (or all of them) are pushing this horse uphill.
Looking more closely at the Resolve results – some interesting nuance here:
ALP Primary
NSW 32
VIC 29
QLD 30
Rest 37
LNP Primary
NSW 21
VIC 21
QLD 25
Rest 25
ON Primary
NSW 24
VIC 25
QLD 23
Rest 19
Holdenhillbilly @ #20 Sunday, February 15th, 2026 – 7:15 pm
See how the Thatcherite Failure still wants to be relevant 27 years after Victorian voters kicked him out.
Honestly the Liberals should still listen to him, that’ll make them lose even more seats.
Griffsays:
Disagree. Coalition is a known quantity. ONP also wouldn’t have a Teal problem. Better the devil you know.
___________________________
Well ON would have a Teal problem cos those seats are needed for the non-Labor side to get a majority.
The leader of the opposition to everything Jess whats her name,is out of the blocks brandishing yet another royal commission threat into the CFMEU and a the rotten labor state govt.
Trouble is,the real boss lady was on top of things and had referred the story to IBAC in the middle of July 2024.
Not her problem that IBAC is well known to be slower than half dead garden snail thanks to all the referrals the opposition have made to it over several years.
Blog Intro
A final result is provided for Sussan Ley showing her on 27% positive, down eight, and 50% negative, up eight.
_______________________
Just for perspective with the recent Vic poll.
Jacinta Allan is at +16% and -53%.
Luigi Smithsays:
Sunday, February 15, 2026 at 7:18 pm
Riffing off SL’s fission/fusion graph from the previous thread and Jane Hume’s renewed enthusiasm for nuclear at any cost, I thought I’d leap ahead of the curve to give you the Small Modular Fusion Reactor.
https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/products/compact-fusion.html
Prediction: it’ll take less than a week before Jane, Ted and Dan (or all of them) are pushing this horse uphill.
_________________
Get back to us when you fit it on the back of a ute.
Kirsdarke
If the Resolve primaries for Victoria have any State relevance, the Libs had better hope there is no leakage from the ON pox on all your houses crew.
ALP 29
VIC 21
ON 25
GRN 12
Barely 1 in 5 Victorians support the Liberal Party.
Grimeesays:
Sunday, February 15, 2026 at 7:22 pm
Trouble is,the real boss lady was on top of things and had referred the story to IBAC in the middle of July 2024.
_______________________
July 2024. Days after Nick McKenzie broke his story in the Age.
Give us something from 2017 to 2024 and i might take notice.
It had been going on for years.
Grimee says:
Sunday, February 15, 2026 at 7:22 pm
The leader of the opposition to everything Jess whats her name,is out of the blocks brandishing yet another royal commission threat into the CFMEU and a the rotten labor state govt.
———————————————————
The lib/nats at federal and state levels, do not have political intelligence .
The Howard government royal commission failed to get unions and Bill Shorten
The Abbot government royal commission failed to get unions and Bill Shorten and Julia Gillard , it did get some people exposed thought , not who the federal lib/nats and propaganda media units wanted, instead it was
The hero’s of the federal lib/nats and propaganda media units who were exposed
Taylormade says:
Sunday, February 15, 2026 at 7:23 pm
Blog Intro
A final result is provided for Sussan Ley showing her on 27% positive, down eight, and 50% negative, up eight.
_______________________
Just for perspective with the recent Vic poll.
Jacinta Allan is at +16% and -53%.
———————————
Lol Taylormade
Grimee says:
Sunday, February 15, 2026 at 7:22 p
I note the allegations include: • A person appointed as a CFMEU health and safety official on a State rail upgrade project using a car assigned for health and safety purposes to engage in bikie gang
activities. • A person using a State rail upgrade project vehicle to drive to Footscray Hospital
when bleeding from a gunshot wound. • Persons who are members of outlaw motorcycle gangs and their allegedly criminal associates being employed in union delegate positions on major projects and
adversely influencing the operations of companies on major project sites. • CMEU officials advising building companies to hire bikie-controlled subcontractors,
or, to retain underworld standover men. • CFMEU using its influence as to companies that are awarded project related work based on whether the company has an enterprise bargaining agreement and/or
labour hire agreement backed by the CFMEU.
This is all so trivial.. .. Have an RC into how many of the dodgy “developers “ have connections to major drug suppliers .. in Sydney .. awash with cocaine .. many of the “colourful characters “ live high up in “ secure “ high rise apartments.. to avoid the drive by shootings
That Queensland result Sprocket posted would see the LNP loses its heartland.
Labor and One Nation would make serious gains and I dare say the collapse in the LNP vote would see the Greens lose Ryan.
There are a few too many people on here tonight comparing this new Resolve poll to things other than the last Resolve poll – you can’t really do that.
Against the Resolve poll from 1 month ago: ALP +1, LNP -5, GRN +1, ON +5,
Against the Resolve Poll from late December: ALP (0), LNP -5, GRN -1, ON +7
There’s only 1 significant movement in all of that.
If the late December poll had a 2PP of 54/46, you’d reckon this one would too. The 52/48 result from last month looked a bit too soft for ALP and it has turned out to be.
Labor ahead 54/46 on voting attention at the moment and it won’t be long until the BludgerTrack measure catches up. This is more likely low than high as there seems good reason to think last election preference flows for ON are higher than they would currently be from these elevated ON results and the LNP 2PP figure is at great risk from a lower ON flow than people are assuming..
Well well well. How exciting is politics atm. I can report that many of the Gen Z voters who got behind Albo are very unhappy about his handling of recent matters. The NSW police strong arming folk will be losing them votes as is the lost right to protest. Most of all, it’s the lack of anything bold agenda wise given the majority.
I am even hearing of a shift to one nation. Albo is going to have to tackle housing tax policy and immigration to win these youngsters back as he’s giving off all talk no action vibes.
Given they are now the largest voting bloc, they can not be taken for granted
So ‘DEI Hire’ Jess Wilson now sits on a 21% primary vote in our second largest state, and people think she’s on track to victory in November.
Battin was the ‘path forward”, not her.
ALP up 3 in a month, and the Libs down 12 points in sicktoria!
Even Jeff Kennett has weighed in today – clearly at wits end.
As much as i hate to say it, prepare for a fourth term Labor gov’t in Vic come November.
I would love to see the crybaby meltdown about preferential voting if the ALP gained seats on an even lower primary vote.
Dr Fumbles McStupid, a few friends down here have what people think of as roof top wind turbines, but they all live in the country side.
Those little buggers are loud, generally at the top of a 15 metre pole. They kind of sound like drones up close. If a neighbourhood fitted itself out with them it’d be like a swarm of angry bees every time the wind blew.
I’ve been wanting to put one up myself but I’m in a suburb and I didn’t want to risk the noise complaints after making the capital expenditure.
ALABAMA
21% the federal polling.
High Street – which Resolve poll do you want to compare it too then? A poll from a decade ago ?
You really are a labor looney, aren’t you.
“I reckon if Taylor is unable to get the L/NP vote above 30% by the end of 2027, they’ll switch to Hastie.”
That long?
It will be interesting to see what percentage of the right wing rusted ons will return to the Liberal fold now that Ley is gone and Angus is spouting all the ON-adjacent lines, and who’s burned on trusting the Libs again and sticks with ON. Whatever it is, I expect Angus to blow it within months.
I stick to what I said at some point mid last year – Labor should be preparing for the next election on the assumption that immigration is the hot button issue besides interest rates, and the opposition will have fully embraced right wing populism (I forget if I specifically said Hastie would be the leader of the Libs or not, but probably yes), and they can’t make the mistake of 2019 in assuming the Libs won’t change leader before the election.
From the previous thread
BW@4.47pm
That was my visceral reaction when I hear her say that. But “idiot” was the word I used.
It reminded me of the context when she announced her “No more work from home for public servants.” She told the story of her son starting an internship at a firm in Canberra(?). She suggested that they get coffee together on his first day, since they would both be in Canberra. Her son told her he would be working from home on the first day of his internship, and she said, in releasing a new Federal Opposition policy “who works from home during an internship? And it has to stop!”.
So, she later insisted it would only apply to Commonwealth public servants, but we all understood that
* Her son was working for a private company
* Given that his situation was what had drawn her ire, we assumed that once she stopped public servants from working from home, good ole private enterprise would have the moral authority to do the same.
* Given the high cost of housing and child care, during COVID, many families had moved further out from the city than comfortable commuting distance, assuming around 50% work from home was here to stay. They had based their mortgages and work situations around it.
Of course they were going to preference against the party suggesting this policy. And all the small businesses who were thriving because people were going to their local coffee shop and lunch place to get a break from the home office? Well they were probably not going to preference the Coalition over the ALP either.
So after that announcement the ALP was probably already halfway to 94 seats.
And for the first day for Hume’s son as an Intern being work from home makes perfect sense to me. Hosting Intern’s (or Vacation Scholars as we call them in my industry) is actually a lot of unpaid work for the host. And the amount of form filling and sheer documentation that needs to be read through on the first day – do it from home! Why drag someone into the office to tell them “sit here, read this, and by the way I will check in on you at 5 pm after I have finished my insert here* tasks that I will actually be working on until at least 9pm tonight.
* Enforceable Undertaking / Policy document in response to the Royal Commission/ Teaching / ARC or NHMRC grant writing / Research paper that I need to finish before applying for the former …
If it turns out her son was actually in at work, and had just other plans, then it is one of the most consequential outcomes ever from a young guy trying to say, politely “not today mum”!
And the other really dumb policy announced by the Coalition before the May 2025 election was ” Nuclear, we are going to nuclear” to get clean energy to deal with climate change. And then Dutton himself says, at a press conference, that “of course to make nuclear work we will have to withdraw some renewable energy from the grid”.
So, all those suburban coalition voters, who had installed large numbers of solar panels on their largish houses heard “you know that pay-back time you calculated for your panels? Forget it. By government decree you will get nothing, in abundance!”
In early February 2025 I was at the hairdresser- small business – not the natural home of the socialist left. I commented that I was weighing up getting solar panels and a battery soon. At that stage there was a good subsidy for solar panels. The response was amazing!
Hairdressers, clients, they all lined up to show me their apps and how well they were doing from their solar panels. Most, at that stage, had not opted for batteries, because “the payback time was too long”.
There were just everyday people, who were more than capable, thank you very much, of understanding the economics of power generation, and how to benefit from it.
And then Dutton threatens to rip their solar panels out? While he did not say that he would do exactly that, we all understand the economics of power supply these days. We know what “grid charges” are. So a quite numerate electorate figured that they would pay for Dutton’s nuclear fantasy through “grid charges”.
And that provided the second half of the 94 seat victory.
And Hume has just doubled down on that stupidity!! As well as her earlier No work from home stupidity.
Click to Edit –
sprocket_ @ #31 Sunday, February 15th, 2026 – 7:25 pm
While I hope the One Nation vote is a mirage that will dissipate once they have to start actually running candidates and policies and have a few embarrassments in the campaign period for insufficient vetting or come up with nonsense like repealing the ban on nazi imagery, I can’t deny that Victorian Labor is probably in trouble.
What it should do right away is abolish group ticket voting for the Upper House and put an end to the Glenn Druery Roulette.
Another thing it should do is solve the Jacinta Allan problem, she’s extremely unpopular at the moment and just ignoring that will hurt them.
Arky @ #44 Sunday, February 15th, 2026 – 7:42 pm
Yeah, that long. Even if Taylor turns out to be a failure of a leader, they’ll want as little time as possible between Hastie becoming leader and the election. If they dump Taylor for Hastie at the end of 2026 for example then there’ll be all of 2027 and half of 2028 for Hastie’s weaknesses to be exposed.
Taylormade @ #32 Sunday, February 15th, 2026 – 7:27 pm
So the Premier acted smartly when she became aware of the issue.What a terrible thing to do,or you going to come out and call her a liar?
https://www.ibac.vic.gov.au/publications-and-resources/article/corruption-risks-associated-with-major-transport-infrastructure-projects
https://www.ibac.vic.gov.au/corruption-risks-in-major-infrastructure-projects
Not only is the federal by-election is a test for Angus Taylor ,
At the time of this years federal budget reply , will be less than 2 years to the 2028 federal election .
Stephen Spencer @sspencer_63
Timmy’s going to save money for the federal Budget by finding imaginary savings in the Victorian state budget… A someone send this man a copy of the constitution?
Quote
Tim Wilson@TimWilsonMP
Federal Budget saving #1: a Liberal-led government would stop the $15 billion of your taxes Federal Labor has given to organised crime through the CFMEU-Labor cartel of corruption.
So according to the trend in now every single poll from every major pollster for the last month has been not only Labor gaining back primary vote support, but they’re also in a position to win roughly the same number of seats that they won in 2025 (a range of around 88-97 seats with 92 seats being the average).