Resolve Strategic: 55-45 to Labor (open thread)

Labor remains well on top in the final Resolve Strategic poll for the year, despite concerns about the immigration rate.

What is presumably the year’s final monthly Resolve Strategic poll for Nine Newspapers reverses a movement in the Coalition’s favour in the last result, with Labor’s two-party lead out from 53-47 to 55-45. Labor is up two on the primary vote to 35% and the Coalition down three to 26%, with the Greens down one to 11% and One Nation up two to 14%. Sussan Ley nonetheless records improved personal ratings, her combined very good and good rating on the question of performance in recent weeks up six to 39% (albeit that the improvement is entirely from “good” rather than “very good”) and combined poor and very poor down four to 37%. Anthony Albanese is up four on very good plus good to 48% and down one on poor plus very poor to 43%, and his lead as preferred prime minister shifts from 39-25 to 41-26.

Also featured are questions on immigration that tell a now familiar story: after being told of a system that features “net migration intake of 316,000 per year and grants permanent visas to 185,000 people per year”, 53% rated the level too high, 4% too low and 33% about right, compared with 49%, 5% and 27% when the question was last asked in September. The 53% were then asked about six possible reasons for holding that view, with 81% ticking the box for pressure on housing prices and 52% doing so for “a loss of Australian culture and identity”. Four further questions on potential immigration policies found the most restrictive most favoured, peaking at 64% support and 13% opposition for “pausing any immigration until our housing situation has caught up”. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Sunday from a sample of 1800.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,321 comments on “Resolve Strategic: 55-45 to Labor (open thread)”

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  1. Socratessays:

    Likewise Wells has referred all her claims to an independent audit. That is scrutiny
    _________________________________
    Never refer yourself to in independent audit unless you already know the outcome.

  4. Socratessays:
    Wednesday, December 10, 2025 at 10:40 pm
    As an admitted Labor supporter I have no political motive in throwing a blanket over the Lehrmann case. It is series of Liberal v Liberal court battles.
    I am simply sick of it after four years.
    _______________________
    You got sick of it as soon as Gallager and Wong started copping some blowback.

  6. Ven

    Anderson never had great results in Australia(and Terry Alderman was better than him in England). England’s current squad have some decent fast bowlers, but they like many before them think the extra bounce here means they should bowl shorter, which is just daft (like their batters trying to drive on the up). Starc knows how its done, bowl tempters mixed with stump line, sandshoe crushers ala Thommo. If Wood, Archer etc had done the same we might be in a different place(also if Brooks had been lucky first innings in Perth)

  7. nathsays:
    Wednesday, December 10, 2025 at 10:58 pm
    Never refer yourself to in independent audit unless you already know the outcome.
    _______________________
    Who could ever forget Water Minister Harriet Shing announcing her independent investigation into the Maribyrnong floods.
    It lasted all of 5 minutes before she had to backtrack and start all over again with new terms of reference.

  10. Has this been posted?

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-mps-who-spent-more-than-100-000-and-the-ministers-who-spent-0-on-family-travel-20251209-p5nm8t.html

    This SMH piece on travel expenses is wild. Anika Wells is getting absolutely dragged for her claims, meanwhile Don Farrell has claimed almost three times as much and Adelaide is practically around the corner from Canberra compared to QLD. He’s the one clearly rorting the scheme, yet there’s barely a whisper about him. What a disgrace.

    Time for Farrell to front up and explain himself and here’s hoping the old right-wing fart will just resign.

    It’s pretty telling watching how an ambitious young woman in cabinet gets torn to shreds over this while a powerful old man coasts by without scrutiny. Even more interesting given the rumours that this whole thing is an inside hit job from within Labor itself.

  11. Official study released as to how Kamala lost pretty much lines up in how things turned out.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/dec/10/kamala-harris-election-autopsy

    It lines up completely with this video from Vaush in critiquing the Kamala Consultant Team on their Pod Save America interview where they were like “We did nothing wrong, it was the voters”, and “We don’t believe in anything other than what the data tells us about idPol crap”.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wYi_ACpVoyY

    Hopefully none of these people will be allowed anywhere near the central DNC strategy team in 2026 or 2028, since if they do, they’ll probably lose even then.

  12. If the government expects us to believe that the social media ID scheme is about reducing bullying, then how do they explain the weak lettuce leaf report released a few weeks ago by their rapid review into school bullying? Over 1600 submissions, mostly from bullied children and their parents, and yet all the report recommended was pretty much to keep doing nothing much, only now schools have to tell parents within two days that they’re going to keep doing nothing much? Such a wasted opportunity to actually do something about school bullying, and yet all they could come up with was a bunch of vague ‘principles’, but still leave it up to individual schools to choose how to respond? So, business as usual? No ban on ‘restorative practices’ (mediation) despite all the stories of harm, no discussion of class sizes, or childcare culture (or abuse), no broad strategy on how to handle bullying, just a weak lettuce leaf report discussing the problem but not really offering any solutions.

    Against that backdrop, how do they expect us to believe that reducing bullying and its harms is the primary motivator behind this ID scheme, when they couldn’t even take that inquiry process seriously? Do they even have a backup plan if suicides increase instead of decreasing, as they’re expecting? I don’t just mean among the kids, I mean among all the adults who are also losing access to accounts? Vulnerable people who are losing access to the online communities which keep their heads above water, all because they value their privacy too much to do facial recognition to prove their age? Have they even considered how many extremely vulnerable adults will reject participating in this and hence be left out in the cold without support networks? Many of whom, ironically, were bullied at school and are suffering the lifelong harms of that?

  13. “This SMH piece on travel expenses is wild.”
    I had a laugh at the comment from some-one remarking that Sussan Ley had kept her head down “for some reason”. Probably a good idea not to pipe up and remind everyone you committed actions that people may consider to be deliberate fraud against the commonwealth.

  14. First Dog on the Moon on the social media ban …

    And of course we know why the Greens want to have the kids on social media, so that they can
    indoctrinate them from an early age with their pixie fairy dust economic magic pudding rubbish.
    And their dog spouts the party line.

  15. News Corp’s free mass-market news site, news.com.au, was the first to publish details of Wells’ $100,000 trip to New York under the headline “Eye-watering cost to spruik social media ban” last Tuesday evening, before mysteriously sending the link dead shortly after.

    But sources with insight into the publishing decision have told On Background the story was pulled by editor-in-chief of Free News and Lifestyle Mick Carroll because it jarred with News Corp’s advocacy through its Let Them Be Kids campaign for the Albanese government’s social media ban for under-16s.

    The story, produced by News Corp’s NewsWire service and published to news.com.au, was based on a Senate Estimates questions on notice document leaked to the journalists that included details of Wells’ itinerary during the trip and the substantial costs.

    What the document also included, but which wasn’t mentioned in the short-lived story, was a NYC meeting between Wells and News Corp’s Let Them Be Kids campaign, fronted by The Courier Mail’s weekend editor Melanie Pilling, who was also present in New York.

    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/vanishing-act-the-anika-wells-expenses-exclusive-pulled-by-news-corp-20251208-p5nlti.html


  18. aggmagpie says:
    ….
    It’s pretty telling watching how an ambitious young woman in cabinet gets torn to shreds over this while a powerful old man coasts by without scrutiny. Even more interesting given the rumours that this whole thing is an inside hit job from within Labor itself.

    It is all public data. The options extend far beyond parliament. According to article William posted, News published and went oops.

    Were the Liberal staffers really that stupid?

    Did Labor start a long game, start the horses running than switch to the Liberals. Too risky.

    My money is on the group that is losing a market share. We have the yanks with money interfering in our government.

  19. agitprop,
    [indoctrinate them from an early age with their pixie fairy dust economic magic pudding rubbish.]

    The episodes without the pixie fairy dust, replaced by the cattle dog dust economic magic pudding rubbish should be a bell ringer !

  20. The overseas owned media are intent on regaining its preeminent position as the maker and breaker of all things political in the lucky country.
    And the “respected commentators” and “revered journalists” of the press are ensuring “which side their bread is buttered on”.
    The “lucky country” is indeed lucky to have the services of “the great Albodini” at a time of “the fake pandemonium” caused as a result of the “sky” about to be falling down.
    Thank goodness for the cricket next week!

  21. World News & Politics Patrol:

    US Seizes Oil Tanker Off the Coast of Venezuela: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-10/us-seizes-oil-tanker-off-the-coast-of-venezuela?embedded-checkout=true

    Zelensky ‘ready’ to hold elections during war, if partners ensure security: https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-ready-to-hold-elections-during-war-if-partners-ensure-security/

    Czech Republic develops missile that puts Moscow in range. Ukraine gets it for combat trials: https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/12/10/czech-republic-develops-missile-that-puts-moscow-in-range-ukraine-gets-it-for-combat-trials/

    US could ask foreign tourists for five-year social media history before entry: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c1dz0g2ykpeo

    UK government ‘would consider’ Australia-style social media ban for under-16s: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/lisa-nandy-starmer-social-media-youth-plan-b2881684.html

    The Home Secretary was clear today; we must identify and address any links between ethnicity, religion and culture – and child rape. We won’t turn away from this. Victims come first: https://x.com/miketapptweets/status/1998464759855792218

    Articles of Impeachment Introduced Against Pete Hegseth: https://www.newsweek.com/articles-of-impeachment-introduced-against-pete-hegseth-11188538

    Billionaire Trump Gives Jaw-Dropping Lecture to Parents as Prices Surge: https://www.thedailybeast.com/billionaire-donald-trump-sends-christmas-affordability-message-to-parents-as-prices-surge/

    Articles of Impeachment Introduced Against RFK Jr: https://www.newsweek.com/articles-of-impeachment-introduced-against-rfk-jr-11186772

    DOD gave $620M loan to startup backed by Donald Trump Jr.’s venture capital firm: https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/donald-trump-jr-dod-loan/

    Trump, 79, Derails Speech to Thirst Over Leavitt, 28: https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-79-derails-speech-to-thirst-over-leavitt-28/

    Rahm Emanuel says US should follow Australia’s youth social media ban: https://www.politico.com/news/2025/12/09/rahm-emanuel-says-u-s-should-follow-australias-youth-social-media-ban-00682185

    ICE is using smartwatches to track pregnant women, even during labor: ‘She was so afraid they would take her baby’: https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/dec/10/ice-tracking-pregnant-women

    Justice Department can unseal records from Epstein’s 2019 sex trafficking case, judge says: https://apnews.com/article/epstein-sex-trafficking-case-records-justice-department-016bbded12959c90d1679e15aa273b60

    Eileen Higgins becomes Miami’s first Democratic mayor in 30 years: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/dec/09/miami-mayor-election-winner-eileen-higgins

    Fed cuts interest rates by a quarter point amid apparent split over US economy: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/dec/10/fed-interest-rates-us-economy

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