With a state election looming on March 21, South Australian Liberal leader Vincent Tarzia has stepped down, citing a wish to focus on his family and local community and denying he had been undermined, and denying knowledge of recently reported efforts to have him make way for Shadow Health Minister Ashton Hurn. The Advertiser reports a statement from Hurn says only that she “will be speaking with my colleagues ahead of a party room meeting”. The deputy leader, Josh Teague, “shrugged off questions of whether he would put his hand up”.
UPDATE (6/12): The Advertiser (which reported this morning that Ashton Hurn was almost certain to be elected leader unopposed after Josh Teague said he would not contest) reports a poll conducted by new-ish outfit Fox & Hedgehog from November 24 to December 5, thus of little use in gauging the temperature after Tarzia’s departure, had Labor leading 61-39 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Labor 41%, Liberal 21%, Greens 12% and One Nation 13%. Peter Malinauskas was rated positively by 51%, neutrally or uncertainly by 25% and negatively by 19%, compared with 17%, 36% and 25% for Tarzia (the balance saying they had never heard of them), with Malinauskas leading 54-18 on preferred premier. Ashton Hurn recorded 10% positive, 29% neutral and 12% negative.
Pauline Hanson recorded the highest approval out of a number of federal politicians canvassed at 38%, though partly this reflected high name recognition, with 24% neutral and 36% negative. Anthony Albanese scored 33%, 24% and 41%, Sussan Ley 16%, 35% and 29%. Further results for Penny Wong, Don Farrell, Alex Antic, Angus Taylor and Andrew Hastie, together with detailed voting intention breakdowns, are featured in the full report.
That’s an interesting comparison WB. Only caveat is WA Labor was heading into their third term, not their second, and so you would likely expect more resignations. Still four months to go too
Out of curiosity I went and looked at government retirements at the 2021 WA state election and it was about 15% of the then party room.
So you could argue SA Labor is currently sitting at an average turnover rate. Only reason I’m watching closely is the stature of retirements: Deputy Premier, Treasurer and Speaker of the House, all at once.
South Australia has been in “managed decline” since ALP won in the 1960’s. Some interesting statistics
SA had 12 seats out of 124 (approx 10%) in the federal parliament in 1966 when SA ALP came to power. Today it is 10 out of 150 (6%). ALP has been in power most of the last 60 years (72% of the time). By contrast WA has gone from 9/124 to 16/150.
1966 – Adelaide was the 3rd biggest city in Australia, now the 5th.
We had a manufacturing / agricultural base with Phillips, Kelvinators, Holdens, Mitsubishi / Chrysler, HQ of Elders. All now gone. These real world industries have been replaced with circuses – Gather Round, Supercar races, etc..
And South Australians – you voted for it.
I live in Vic now, but lived in Adelaide most of my life. – Go Crows and Sturt
A lot of the economic criticisms of SA are symptomatic of what some economists are politely calling “the Australian Disease.” A very complacent economy that is built on a few bubbles and some good fortune that refuses to innovate or diversify. We’ve already seen what happens when the manufacturing bubble bursts (which, contrary to the rhetoric of partisans on both sides, didn’t happen purely because one side or another screwed up) and we’re currently balancing precariously on three other bubbles: mining, which we’ve already seen how delicate it can be and how damaging sudden changes are, real estate, which is almost a ponzi scheme in nature – especially as we’re seeing now where ownership is more for investment portfolios and asset collatoral than actually housing anyone or any business, and most depressingly, sports gambling which is probably the strongest most “recession-proof” industry but is also predatory and tends to economically harm the lower end of the economic spectrum.
Adelaide (and SA), unfortunately struggles in this area more so than the Eastern states as it is awkwardly placed (it is in the middle of the continent, facing only Antarctica, which rules it out from being a major port city, its distance from other populations precludes it from being a major commercial hub and its climate also stymies natural population growth that benefits other cities in similar situations around the world. Adelaide’s economic future depends on thinking outside the box and setting itself up as the centre of new industries and keeping trained/educated people in town. That means money, from both state and federal governments, it also requires long-term thinking. Both of these things are very much antithetical to modern political thinking, where the attitude to such things is just to put more bandaids on the bubbles (or hope there’s some windfall that can sustain things for another few decades), neoliberal edge-trimming, or just shrugging and pretending it’s not happening (or, in the case of interstate people, calling South Australians lazy and telling them to pull their socks up.)
Falling back on nostalgia for a halcyon era that never was just exacerbates this problem. Also, slower population growth relative to the rest of the country isn’t population decline.
”
Paul James Bakersays:
Saturday, December 6, 2025 at 11:45 am
South Australia has been in “managed decline” since ALP won in the 1960’s. Some interesting statistics
SA had 12 seats out of 124 (approx 10%) in the federal parliament in 1966 when SA ALP came to power. Today it is 10 out of 150 (6%). ALP has been in power most of the last 60 years (72% of the time). By contrast WA has gone from 9/124 to 16/150.
1966 – Adelaide was the 3rd biggest city in Australia, now the 5th.
We had a manufacturing / agricultural base with Phillips, Kelvinators, Holdens, Mitsubishi / Chrysler, HQ of Elders. All now gone. These real world industries have been replaced with circuses – Gather Round, Supercar races, etc..
And South Australians – you voted for it.
I live in Vic now, but lived in Adelaide most of my life. – Go Crows and Sturt
”
Paul James Baker
The car industry was smashed when Abbott government was in power because they refused to subsidise car industry because they want to smash unions.
Having said what I’ve said, one party rule is a bad thing (even if it’s intermittently interrupted by the occasional one term government on the other side) and having pretty much no opposition is also a bad thing, so I sincerely hope the Liberal Party sorts its shit out ASAP, although I fear that means leaning into reactionary populism, like so many other centre-right parties have (and Antic et al are pushing hard for), which maybe might make them a more hardened opposition but would be detrimental to the state’s future, policy-wise.
Ven @ #54 Saturday, December 6th, 2025 – 1:10 pm
The Abbott Government’s decision was devastating and did pull the rug out from under the state, especially as we were still bruising from the Olympic Dam expansion cancellation news, and I definitely don’t want to downplay it but lets not pretend the industry wasn’t already on a sharp decline.
Like, what stung most about it wasn’t necessarily him pulling the plug so quickly on it, it was how spiteful and nasty the attitude behind it was and the fact that, when pressed about what SA should do to economically recover, their attitude was “You’re on your own. Figure it out” and then implying that the state will get no help from them if Labor remains in power on the state level.
The problem with turning over the Liberal leader in South Australia is that Unlike Victoria where it’s a whole year out from the election, and New South Wales where the election is in 2027 South Australia’s election is only 4 months away which would make it nearly impossible to run a full campaign against Labor with a leader that hasn’t even been tested out yet in terms of just simply being in parliament.
TK
She did manage to really rattle his cage on a very dodgy ramping policy that she called out. He really lost it. In fairness to him, he didn’t realise how dishonest SA Health were being.
But you saw the result with the lady dying in a corridor outside a kitchen at the RAH with no equipment.
Daniel T. Nomention of Narungga in your review. Lib/ Ind Lib still likely?
Daniel T. No mention of Narungga in your review. Lib/ Ind Lib still likely?
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Thomas Brian Muttersays:
Saturday, December 6, 2025 at 5:30 pm
The problem with turning over the Liberal leader in South Australia is that Unlike Victoria where it’s a whole year out from the election, and New South Wales where the election is in 2027 South Australia’s election is only 4 months away which would make it nearly impossible to run a full campaign against Labor with a leader that hasn’t even been tested out yet in terms of just simply being in parliament.
”
Maybe they hey are expecting Bob Hawke performance as opposition leader from the would be opposition leader (whoever he/she is)
If Premier Fabio is so horrible as some on this thread say, then why is he so popular?
Good question @Ven, lol.
I guess the point is that, yes he is popular, but a big part of that is simply that the alternative is deeply unpopular.
aggmagpie @ #63 Sunday, December 7th, 2025 – 3:23 am
That does seem to be the case, the Liberals are more invested in fighting each other than they are in fighting the government, so, that rips themselves apart more effectively than other parties can.
Meanwhile SA Labor seems to be quite happy to go with Premier Fabio, or at least happy to stay quiet and let their opposition fight their battles for them.
@Kirsdarke yeah, Mali’s not going anywhere anytime soon. Susan Close’s retirement honestly makes me a bit sad; she’s my local member and I always assumed she’d be the natural successor, especially with all the (probably idle) speculation about Mali going federal one day.
SA remains the only state or territory to have never had a woman as leader, and it’s hard to see that changing anytime soon. I couldn’t even tell you who the most senior woman in the government is now — they’re all either too junior or not really leadership prospects.
If Hurn gets up, I might actually end up voting Liberal out of sheer principle for representation, lol. Plus their 50c public transport fares policy! I mean someone’s gotta vote for them! 😛
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aggmagpiesays:
Sunday, December 7, 2025 at 4:18 am
@Kirsdarke yeah, Mali’s not going anywhere anytime soon. Susan Close’s retirement honestly makes me a bit sad; she’s my local member and I always assumed she’d be the natural successor, especially with all the (probably idle) speculation about Mali going federal one day.
SA remains the only state or territory to have never had a woman as leader, and it’s hard to see that changing anytime soon. I couldn’t even tell you who the most senior woman in the government is now — they’re all either too junior or not really leadership prospects.
If Hurn gets up, I might actually end up voting Liberal out of sheer principle for representation, lol. Plus their 50c public transport fares policy! I mean someone’s gotta vote for them!
”
aggmagpies
Think of Antic and his gang of Christian fundamentalists. That may persuade you not to vote for SA Libs. 🙂
aggmagpie says:
Sunday, December 7, 2025 at 4:18 am
@Kirsdarke yeah, Mali’s not going anywhere anytime soon. Susan Close’s retirement honestly makes me a bit sad; she’s my local member and I always assumed she’d be the natural successor, especially with all the (probably idle) speculation about Mali going federal one day.
SA remains the only state or territory to have never had a woman as leader, and it’s hard to see that changing anytime soon. I couldn’t even tell you who the most senior woman in the government is now — they’re all either too junior or not really leadership prospects.
If Hurn gets up, I might actually end up voting Liberal out of sheer principle for representation, lol. Plus their 50c public transport fares policy! I mean someone’s gotta vote for them!
=========
It’s going to be an interesting election, albeit I suspect, over very quickly on election night.
I’m picking the Libs to hang onto 5 lower house seats, although there will be some here who say that even that is way to “generous”.
aggmagpie @ #65 Sunday, December 7th, 2025 – 3:48 am
I know what you mean there and I sort of felt that with Close too. Although, to be honest, I feel like Close would have only been given the job if they were facing a huge defeat at the next election and they choose to throw her in the front of it as a sacrifice (and maybe soften the blow.) Although, they tried that with Weatherill too and that backfired on them.
The problem is SA Labor in its top echelon is a boy’s club. Farrell’s faves always fail upwards and stick around like a bad smell. I would not be surprised to see Koutsantonis as leader one day, despite the fact he is electoral poison and emblematic of everything wrong with SDA… I mean SA Labor, just because he is a part of that clique.
I think the thing that grinds my gears the most is how they congratulate themselves for advancing female representation in politics but there’s an obvious glass ceiling above them all. It’s like a company congratulating themselves for hiring women because of how many secretaries work for them, or congratulating themselves for hiring racial minorities, referring to cleaners, groundskeepers and low level maintenance workers.
As a friend once said a few years back: I am sick of celebrating the “milestone” of another woman being chosen to serve under a man.
Wat
All their ministers in the big jobs are men.
Premier (and Defence)
Treasurer (with Energy and Mining)
Attorney General
Health
Education (and Police bizarrely)
aggmagpies
Think of Antic and his gang of Christian fundamentalists. That may persuade you not to vote for SA Libs.
———————————————
And the other faction has become hard core conservatives addicted to SkyNews – climate deniers. Trump fans.
The moderates are either gone or flirting like windsocks with the two powerful factions.
Makes you miss Isobel?
@Ven yeah Antic’s name definitely makes me think twice haha. I do try to differentiate between federal and state though. Obviously the two parties are connected, but does anyone know if Antic has actually managed to “take over” the state branch yet? I’ve seen the reports about him stacking branches with new rank and file members and I assume the long term plan is to filter that influence up into preselections for candidates aligned with him, but that’s a big project and one that would take a while to fully land, probably closer to 2030.
From the outside, all of the state Liberal MPs look left wing compared to him. If Hurn ends up as leader, would that basically signal that Antic is not the one in control? Because I believe Hurn is considered a moderate — can anyone confirm?
And now I’m curious about the overall factional split in the state party. It feels like the most conservative MPs are the ones who have ended up on the crossbench (Fraser Ellis, Troy Bell, etc).
Hurn is a moderate. The conservatives still like her because she might save them a few seats and they probably think they can push her around.
Moderates still control the party room going in to the election, so her numbers aren’t an issue right now. However, the state of the party room post-election, or once they win some seats back might change that dynamic. But, as Diogenes pointed out, even if the conservatives have the deciding vote in future, some of them (not all, some will be stubborn) will prioritise winning the election and instead use their leverage to bell her collar (however, she’d be toast if her polling numbers fall.) Very similar to Turnbull.
Actually, this is kind of the big issue I have with the SA Liberals. Sometimes they have some genuinely good leaders with some innovative vision but the problem is the team behind them often undermine them and act as a trojan horse for some bad stuff. My mind goes to Dean Brown who basically got undermined by Olsen and the cranks. Even Marshall, who I thought was a good Premier, had an increasingly shaky hold on his own party room and one of the things that motivated me to preference Labor last election, despite being lukewarm on Malinauskas, was the fact that I didn’t believe Marshall would be able to hang on for another term.
As long as Antic and his ragtag gang of biblebashers are there, the Liberals are cactus!
Ashton Hurn announces she will run.
I don’t think Marshall actually wanted to be Premier and acted like it by giving Grant Stevens and Nicola Spurrier control of the state. They did a good job but it made him look weak.
I agree with BK. Antic is a clusterf#ck.
Add Nicole Flint to that list as well, she and Alex Antic think the same.
Flint had absolutely nothing to say about being smashed in the May election in Boothby 60-40, probably believes the Sky News lies that the election wasn’t “legit” and that the people were “wrong” or “brianwashed”
Fine by me if Labor win a supermajority hahahaha
DT
Not sure if they will get a supermajority, which I take to be owning both houses. There seems to be a big One Nation vote, who are probably disillusioned Lib voters.
Labor will probably do well in the LC but their total will fall short of a majority (it’s almost impossible to have a majority in the LC.) The Greens would have balance of power and the easiest path to legislation.
I dont think interstate people say SA people are ‘lazy’ but lacking vision might be more Apt.
Dunstan definitely wanted something different but also something deliverable in a small city and state. Playfords manufacturing was a false dawn.
Stobieland could have gone all in on education like some European or North American cities, a real super university campus, Portland on Torrens. And the tech, knowledge and dare I mention defence industries would naturally follow that.
The rest of Australia gets sick of hearing about the cargo cult of submarine construction. They are not there to give Adelaide people jobs but for the most serious and existential crisis Australia could ever have and they have got to work. I’m less interested in whether Joe bogan got a few months welding work out of it.
Ashton Hurn elected Liberal SA leader unanimously.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-12-08/liberal-mp-ashton-hurn-secures-party-leadership/106113466
I agree with BK. No matter how reasonable Hurn is personally, as long as Alex Antic’s faction dominates the SA Liberals (they have complete control of both Federal and State admin committees) then this is window dressing.
@Socrates They really left it way too late to put a first term MP in as opposition leader, unless it’s a Malcolm Turnbull type I think the idea is a bad one anyway. Zac Kirkup was a decent MP but wasn’t ready for Leader duties. I think Vic and NSW Libs will find out the hard way too.
Luke
I agree. Changing leader at this late stage is tokenism. Many of the political journos have already gone on summer break.
@Socrates They really left it way too late to put a first term MP in as opposition leader, unless it’s a Malcolm Turnbull type I think the idea is a bad one anyway. Zac Kirkup was a decent MP but wasn’t ready for Leader duties. I think Vic and NSW Libs will find out the hard way too.
———-
All this century we have heard ad nauseam how the ALP in Victoria will be trounced at the next election. Only on LNP leader has won, Baillieu, and no one was more surprised than him. And he held a one seat majority, which the libs quickly squandered.
I hate to sound like the middle aged balding white man that I am, but all these first term women leaders feel a lot like tokenism: What woman problem, we have a lady leader. If they weren’t libs I would wish them well!
I have just discovered I won’t be able to get to Adelaide for the election. (I’m in Melbourne on Friday and Mildura on the Monday of that weekend….). Bummer. It would be a good one to attend.