Essential Research’s fortnightly poll has Labor down two on the primary vote to 34%, the Coalition down one to 26%, the Greens down one to 10% and One Nation up two from what was already a record high to 17%, with 5% undecided. Labor’s lead on the 2PP+ measure narrows from 50-44 to 49-45, with the balance undecided. Monthly leadership ratings have Anthony Albanese down four on approval to 43% and up two on approval to 45%, with Sussan Ley up three to 34% and down one to 43%.
Helpfully, further questions focus on One Nation, though the survey was conducted before Barnaby Joyce announced he was joining the party. Thirty-one per cent rated that the most likely outcome when asked about his next move, compared with 23% for remaining as an independent and 10% for rejoining the Nationals. Thirty-three per cent rated that him joining One Nation would make them more likely to vote for the party, and 52% less likely; 30% that him becoming leader would make them more likely and 54% less likely.
The social media ban on under-16s was supported by 57% and opposed by 21%, though the trajectory is downward, the results having been 63% and 19% when the question was previously asked in September. Fourteen per cent felt it would be effective, 52% somewhat effective and 34% not effective. Sixty-seven percent supported and 15% opposed the social media ban on under-16s, though only 35% were confident it would work, with 58% not confident (similar questions in last week’s Resolve Strategic poll found 67% supportive and 15% opposed, with 35% confident it would work and 50% not confident).
The monthly “national mood” reading has one point increases for both “right direction” and “wrong direction”, to 36% and 48% respectively. Twenty-five per cent felt the year was better than they expected going in, with 40% worse; 26% rate themselves better off and 42% worse off. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1030.
The BludgerTrack poll aggregate hitherto had One Nation levelling off, but the addition of this result has the trendline pointing upward again. Which serves as a useful introduction to the following:
• As noted in a previous post, a DemosAU MRP poll published last week projected a median outcome of 12 seats for One Nation, with 98 for Labor, 29 for the Coalition, 12 for One Nation, 11 for others and none for the Greens. One Nation were deemed to be firm in Capricornia, Flynn and Wright; leaning in Hinkler, Wide Bay, Lyne, Parkes and Riverina; and leading in Calare, Canning, Grey and Groom. A follow-up release probed into where One Nation’s support was coming from, offering unsurprising findings about it being among older and non-university educated voters located outside inner metropolitan areas. “Approximately one in five” who voted Coalition in May were now professing support for One Nation.
• Relatedly, I had an analysis published in Crikey last week that drew on current voting intention by past vote numbers from RedBridge Group/Accent Research, Freshwater Strategy and Essential Research to ascertain what seats were likely to be gained by One Nation as their share of the national vote increased. This concluded that Capricornia and Wright would be gained from the Coalition at 12%; Flynn and Hinkler at 14%; Parkes from the Coalition, and Forde and Hunter from Labor, at 15%; Longman at 17%; and Wide Bay and Canning from the Coalition, and Blair from Labor, at 18%.
• Last week’s Resolve Strategic poll found 29% would be more likely and 19% less likely to vote One Nation if Barnaby Joyce led the party, including 39% more likely and 11% less likely among Coalition and 49% more likely and 8% less likely among One Nation (respectively with samples of 448 and 219).
Ven @ #1474 Sunday, December 14th, 2025 – 9:17 pm
C@tmomma @ #1501 Sunday, December 14th, 2025 – 10:00 pm
If he had a gun licence, presumably the police would have had to make a judgement about his eligibility for one. That’s probably all the Police Commissioner is referring to.
DPR of CBR says:
Sunday, December 14, 2025 at 10:53 pm
Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
Sunday, December 14, 2025 at 10:32 pm
…
– – – – – – – – – –
Channel 7 announcing details of the white tee-shirt guy who disarmed “white pants”. As you surmised, copped two bullets to his left arm for his trouble and will go into surgery shortly. FWIW, his name is Ahmed.
中华人民共和国
As Griff said “we are all Australian”.
Thanks for letting us know DPR. I truly hope Ahmed successfully recovers and receives some recognition for a truly heroic act.
Night all. Please stay safe.
We are very privileged here in Australia to be able to live in general peaceful terms.
Every now and then something comes along to shatter this confidence.
This tragic evil event, is one such incident.
Night all
A segue, especially important tonight:
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4g64e67n7eo
Ven would approve.
Amen, Upnorth
I agree strongly with that
Not all heroes wear capes, 43-year-old Ahmed al Ahmed who likely saved countless lives when he wrestled with the gunman.
This man isn’t Australian born, but a hero we all needed tonight!!
TPOF
There are some things we don’t agree on but that’s a beautiful story of people living harmoniously.
Well, that’s pretty fucked.
As an irreligious person I just cannot comprehend it.
Look after yourselves and your loved ones, Bludgers.
Hopefully, the news that the hero was a Muslim will help dampen down the bigot element!
SAVoter @ #1506 Sunday, December 14th, 2025 – 10:51 pm
+1
Something for the “Deport ’em all” people to remember. I want people like this in my country. They embody the modern Australian ideal. More than people like Pauline Hanson do. (And definitely more so than any violent extremist.)
Thats the end of the expenses bullshit then.
Pauline would just say who cares, throw them all out.
This issue needs to be revisited in light of the Sydney attack. The return of guns.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/aug/25/australias-gun-lobby-says-its-winning-the-fight-against-firearm-control-as-numbers-surge
The Canberra Bubble bubbles on…
Sorry, but it *is* time to have a proper discussion about what we want migration to look like. Things can’t go on as they are. These two men are two men who should not have been allowed into the country. The Canberra Bubble can’t keep ignoring this debate.
Pauline has never spoken for the majority of Australians thank goodness.
“ Not all heroes wear capes, 43-year-old Ahmed al Ahmed who likely saved countless lives when he wrestled with the gunman.”
Amazing that he didn’t shoot the gunman, or bludgeon him senseless with the gun. Must be a very peaceful man.
Pauline demonises a whole religion based on the action of a few, given the shooters have attacked people based on their religion, I think she should STFU, she is part of the problem.
Looks like “white pants” is the shooter who was killed.
After being disarmed, he returned to the stairwell where the other shooters were located.
In the footage posted by G.of.W at 8.10pm, you can see in the background at around the 1 min, 47 mark, that a “marksman” turned up in the background, which attracted the attention of one of the “black pants” shooters. Whether that “marksman” was NSW Police or C.S.G. NSW, will be determined in the future.
Most of the online footage is getting blurred out by the media, and no doubt the Office of E-Safety will block Ghosts’ 8.10 pm “X” feed post, overnight, especially the bit after “white pants” runs off after being disarmed.
”
TPOFsays:
Sunday, December 14, 2025 at 11:20 pm
A segue, especially important tonight:
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4g64e67n7eo
Ven would approve.
”
Of course I do. Thanks TPOF for the article.
steve davis says:
Sunday, December 14, 2025 at 11:55 pm
Thats the end of the expenses bullshit then.
===============
Nope.
The “expenses thing” was the warm up act.
For something different after this dreadful day. Bob Geldof on David Bowie and Live Aid: https://www.youtube.com/shorts/egq4YhvJlnI
Trust Netanyahu to apportion blame on the Albanese Government for the Bondi massacre. Nothing could be further from the truth:
[‘Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said he believes the Australian government poured oil on the flames of antisemitism through its silence on anti-Jewish sentiment in the country.
“A few months ago, I wrote a letter to the Prime Minister of Australia. I said that their policy was pouring oil on the flames of antisemitism and encouraging the hatred of Jews that is raging in the streets of Australia,” Netanyahu said ahead of his weekly cabinet meeting.
“Antisemitism is a cancer that spreads when leaders remain silent, and they must replace weakness with strength in facing it.”
“That did not happen in Australia – and today, something terrible occurred there. A cold-blooded murder,” Netanyahu added.
Some context: Speaking earlier, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese described the attack as “an act of evil, antisemitism, terrorism that has struck the heart of our nation” and said that “an attack on Jewish Australians is an attack on every Australian.”] – CNN
New thread.