The Financial Review reports on a “jumbo-sized” poll from RedBridge Group/Accent Research conducted separately from the regular monthly series, the most recent instalment of which had a partly overlapping field work period (November 7 to November 13, compared with November 7 to 26 for the latest result). The sample of 4775, compared with 1011 from the regular poll, allows for “statistically meaningful breakdowns on the result”, notably in relation to the issue I explored by last week’s post on the Australian Election Study, namely the interaction of gender and age.
The headline result from the poll shows a less resounding Labor lead than in the poll from a fortnight ago, at 54-46 on two-party preferred (compared with 56-44), from primary votes of Labor 35% (down three), Coalition 26% (up two), and Greens 10% (up one), while repeating its extraordinary result of 18% for One Nation. Breakdowns for the four largest states have Labor leading 56-44 in New South Wales (55.3-44.7 at the election), 54-46 in Victoria (56.3-43.7) and 58-42 in Western Australia (55.8-44.2), and trailing 48-52 in Queensland (49.4-50.6).
The age-by-gender results sit well with my own findings from the Australian Election Study in showing twice as many women than men supporting the Greens among Gen Z, at 37% and 18%, with Labor doing better among the young men (44% to 31%) and the Coalition doing poorly among both (20% to 16%). In line with international trends, distinctions are much subtler among older cohorts: the gender gap for the Greens reduces to 16% to 11% among millennials, and the only other difference of significance is that One Nation are at 26% among Gen X men and 17% among women, the former eclipsing the Coalition on 24%. (UPDATE: Full report here).
UPDATE (DemosAU MRP poll): In a big day for jumbo-sized polls, DemosAU has reported what I believe to be its first MRP poll for Capital Brief, conducted October 5 to November 11 from a sample of 6528. Its national seat projection is 98 seats for Labor, 29 for the Coalition, 12 for One Nation, 11 for others and none for the Greens. One Nation are deemed to be firm in Capricornia, Flynn and Wright; leaning in Hinkler, Wide Bay, Lyne, Parkes and Riverina; and leading in Calare, Canning, Grey and Groom. Longman, Ryan, Casey and La Trobe are rated more likely than not to be gained by Labor, while teals are rated likely to gain Goldstein and lose Bradfield. Labor leads 56-44 on voting intention, from primary votes of Labor 33%, Coalition 24%, Greens 13% and One Nation 17%.
Ven says:
Sunday, December 7, 2025 at 6:14 pm
”
nadia says:
Sunday, December 7, 2025 at 6:10 pm
Latest National Resolve Poll
{Comparison with their 9-Nov poll}
* ALP 35% (+2)
* LNP 26% (-3)
* GRN 11% (-1)
* ON 14% (+2)
* Others/Indies 14% (nc)
Link: https://www.smh.com.au/national/resolve-political-monitor-20210322-p57cvx.html
”
Is sub-30s baked in?
==========
Well it’s the lowest on the Resolve series per the article HH dug up.
We’ll probably get a new thread later this evening once the sample etc comes through.
Reform has peaked and Conservative Party has a bit of momentum.
Interesting set of numbers out of Victoria on that Resolve poll.
* ALP & LNP 31% evens.
* Grn & O.N. 11% evens.
* Indies/Others 16%
What would that make it? a 51-49 ALP 2PP. Maybe 50.5 to 49.5
Edit: These are the Fed figures in Vic (ie: Albo).
Allan’s figures will come through on Tues arvo.
Good afternoon all. On the Anika Wells saga, which I will call TravelRant, rather than TravelGate, I withdraw the criticism I made earlier this morning.
I had pointed out that criticism of the cost of Wells’ unavoidable work trips was a beatup, whereas taking the family to Thredbo was not OK (assuming it was not a work trip).
Obviously, if Wells was in Thredbo for the Paralympics event (hence a work trip), then my concern does not apply.
In my defence, the reporting of this non0-incident simply said Wells and her kids went to Thredbo, not that she went there for a work event. Lack of context = lousy reporting. So yeah, its all a beatup.
Based off those surveys, I maintain my position that any DD this term will be a “sensible migration plan” election.
(And so much for the “Environment laws” DD some were tickling).
”
nadiasays:
Sunday, December 7, 2025 at 6:22 pm
Interesting set of numbers out of Victoria on that Resolve poll.
* ALP & LNP 31% evens.
* Grn & O.N. 11% evens.
* Indies/Others 16%
What would that make it? a 51-49 ALP 2PP. Maybe 50.5 to 49.5
Edit: These are the Fed figures in Vic (ie: Albo).
Allan’s figures will come through on Tues arvo.
”
nadia
That is not good for ALP. Victorian Labor government is weighing down on Federal Labor popularity.
Unlike QLD, where people seem to differentiate between state and federal Labor.
So England avoided innings defeat. We have see where it will be 10 wickets or 9 wickets win for Australia.
Taylormade
If I understand things correctly, Yabba did well applying the simplex method to milk processing, I think that’s pretty cool.
“Rest of Australia” 41 to Labor, 19 to LNP.
As I have said before, Australian Labor is effectively a WA+SA party.
And as I have also said previously, after the 2021 WA election the WA Liberals should have just shut up shop and start again with a Pro-WA conservative party (potentially as a federal Coalition member).
D&M and anyone interested in gravitational waves (BTW, this is blue tick X account)
Black Hole
@konstructivizm
Albert Einstein and his young collaborator Nathan Rosen triumphantly submit a paper to the world’s most prestigious physics journal. The title alone is a mic-drop:
“Do Gravitational Waves Exist?” Their answer: a flat, definitive No. Yes, the same Einstein who, in 1916, had personally predicted these ripples in spacetime through general relativity now steps forward to bury his own brainchild.The manuscript lands on the desk of an anonymous referee at Physical Review. The reviewer (later revealed to be astrophysicist Howard Percy Robertson) sends it back with a brutal verdict: “You’ve got a fundamental mathematical error here.”Einstein loses it. He fires off an enraged letter to the editor: “We did not send you this paper so that some referee could edit it. We’re withdrawing it.” And he does, immediately. He also swears he’ll never publish in that journal again, and, true to his word, he never does for the rest of his life.With quiet help from colleagues, the mistake gets fixed. The revised version, published elsewhere, cautiously admits: fine, the waves can exist… but only as cylindrical wavefronts.Fast-forward almost a century.February 11, 2016. LIGO detectors pick up the faintest tremor: two black holes, a billion light-years away, spiraling into each other. Spacetime ripples exactly the way Einstein described in 1916, and not at all the way he tried to kill in http://1936.One of the greatest minds in history almost murdered one of his most beautiful predictions, all because of pride and a single missed term in an http://equation.In the end, experiment had the last word.Gravitational waves are real. And they’re still whispering to us about the universe’s most violent catastrophes. Photo: Nathan Rosen and Albert Einstein, early 1950s, the two men who very nearly killed the discovery of the century.
11:57 PM · Dec 6, 2025
·
12.3K
Views
https://x.com/konstructivizm/status/1997289262769672556
I only take state-based results in federal Resolve polls seriously if they show a trend is starting to set in, with low sample sizes they tend to bounce around more with higher margins of error.
That said, I think Victorian Labor is in trouble if their primary vote trends below 30% and the L/NP vote gets above 40% and it’s starting to approach that mark.
But we’ll have to see how things play out in the new year. Labor did look like it was in a losing position after nearly losing the safe seat of Werribee in February, but they managed to turn that around by winter. Hopefully they can do that again.
Bizzcan @ #1909 Sunday, December 7th, 2025 – 6:38 pm
Perhaps going back to naming itself the Liberal Country League?
Jolly Jumbuck says:
Sunday, December 7, 2025 at 2:27 pm
More Reactionary grumbling. You stick wth that. The alienation of Reactionaries from the wider community more generally is awesomely good news for Australia.
You know if Ukraine really wanted to piss off Putin they could disarm Russian forces in Transnistria.
”
Bizzcansays:
Sunday, December 7, 2025 at 6:38 pm
“Rest of Australia” 41 to Labor, 19 to LNP.
As I have said before, Australian Labor is effectively a WA+SA party.
And as I have also said previously, after the 2021 WA election the WA Liberals should have just shut up shop and start again with a Pro-WA conservative party (potentially as a federal Coalition member).
”
But the serious L-NP cookers are in WA, SA and VIC.
That is the reason it concerns me that ALP and L-NP are on parity in Victoria.
Ven says:
Sunday, December 7, 2025 at 6:14 pm
Is sub-30s baked in?
All going well the Reactionary PV will decline into the teens, from where it will never recover.
”
bcsays:
Sunday, December 7, 2025 at 6:46 pm
You know if Ukraine really wanted to piss off Putin they could disarm Russian forces in Transnistria.
”
Putin said in Press Conference that he will take Donbas either by force or other means.
One for SL
https://citynews.com.au/2025/motorists-pooh-pooh-petrol-for-low-emission-options/?utm_source=mailpoet&utm_medium=email&utm_source_platform=mailpoet&utm_campaign=canberra-daily-today-s-news-today_7801
Ven says:
Sunday, December 7, 2025 at 6:47 pm
”
Bizzcansays:
Sunday, December 7, 2025 at 6:38 pm
“Rest of Australia” 41 to Labor, 19 to LNP.
As I have said before, Australian Labor is effectively a WA+SA party.
And as I have also said previously, after the 2021 WA election the WA Liberals should have just shut up shop and start again with a Pro-WA conservative party (potentially as a federal Coalition member).
”
But the serious L-NP cookers are in WA, SA and VIC.
The WA Liberal Party is practically extinct. The cookers, such as they be, are remarkably few in number and are thoroughly desiccated antiquaries. The last remaining Liberals I know personally are in their 70s, 80s or even 90s. They have no idea what’s going on beyond their own subscriptions to odd-ball phobias and obsolete doctrines.
Interesting numbers indeed Nadia, especially in Victoria
Does anyone else get the feeling the switch to female leaders in NSW, Victoria, SA (likely tomorrow) all feels a little bit stage managed in terms of addressing the broader Liberal problem with female voters?
Noting the ACT went the other way although that may have been an own goal
It’ll be interesting to see if there in movement in the female voting numbers in this round of polls or not
‘Hard Being Green says:
Sunday, December 7, 2025 at 6:56 pm
Interesting numbers indeed Nadia, especially in Victoria
Does anyone else get the feeling the switch to female leaders in NSW, Victoria, SA (likely tomorrow) all feels a little bit stage managed in terms of addressing the broader Liberal problem with female voters?
Noting the ACT went the other way although that may have been an own goal
…’
=====================
Yep. You don’t fix misogyny by putting up patsies.
Parton is, IMO, the Liberal leader most likely to succeed in the ACT so that was a smart move.
Player One says:
Sunday, December 7, 2025 at 1:12 pm
It doesn’t seem to matter what the problem is. The solution is always “More migration!”
In general, more people is a very good thing. I love people and wish many more could come and settle with us. Our host/endogenous population is in decline. We are fortunate that migrants want to come here. We should welcome them.
The Reactionaries will try to chum up phobia. They are despicable and should be politically destroyed. Fortunately they will be.
I came across this essay arguing that means testing is effectively a highly inefficient tax. I’m not sure I agree.
https://westernsydneywonk.wordpress.com/2021/06/05/means-testing-is-a-dog-of-a-tax-and-it-will-destroy-welfare-state/comment-page-1/
Vensays:
Sunday, December 7, 2025 at 6:47 pm
But the serious L-NP cookers are in WA, SA and VIC.
That is the reason it concerns me that ALP and L-NP are on parity in Victoria.
______________________
Yeah but the two issues are highly interlinked
In Victoria they build a rail line and everyone goes “oh no, won’t someone think of the debt!?!”
In WA they build a rail line and everyone goes “this is how it’s done you stupid Victorians”.
@nadia at 6:19pm
It gets worse for Starmer, there was leadership approval ratings released from YouGov last week.
Starmer: 15% Approval (-4), 76% Disapproval (+3), -61% Net Approval
Badenoch: 30% Approval (+9), 45% Disapproval (-8), -15% Net Approval
Davey: 29% Approval (+4), 32% Disapproval (-2), -3% Net Approval
Oddly nothing in there about Farage or Polanski, but the questions do seem to be specifically focused on Labour and the Conservatives.
https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/P_Main_Political_Tracker_Survey_Rotation14_sr_18.pdf
Kirsdarke says:
Sunday, December 7, 2025 at 7:10 pm
@nadia at 6:19pm
It gets worse for Starmer, there was leadership approval ratings released from YouGov last week.
Starmer: 15% Approval (-4), 76% Disapproval (+3), -61% Net Approval
Badenoch: 30% Approval (+9), 45% Disapproval (-8), -15% Net Approval
Davey: 29% Approval (+4), 32% Disapproval (-2), -3% Net Approval
Oddly nothing in there about Farage or Polanski, but the questions do seem to be specifically focused on Labour and the Conservatives.
=========
Gosh, 76!
Absolutely no comment from me!
Bc
“ I came across this essay arguing that means testing is effectively a highly inefficient tax. I’m not sure I agree.”
https://westernsydneywonk.wordpress.com/2021/06/05/means-testing-is-a-dog-of-a-tax-and-it-will-destroy-welfare-state/comment-page-1/
I share your skepticism. When I first started studying economics I was taught that means testing was introduced to improve the efficiency of taxation. And it does 🙂
Hack:
We are fortunate that migrants want to come here. We should welcome them.
I totally agree. Sadly, for a certain demographic, the solution to their own disgruntlement is apparently “Less migration!” – including none at all.
Hard Being Green says:
Sunday, December 7, 2025 at 6:56 pm
Interesting numbers indeed Nadia, especially in Victoria
Does anyone else get the feeling the switch to female leaders in NSW, Victoria, SA (likely tomorrow) all feels a little bit stage managed in terms of addressing the broader Liberal problem with female voters?
Noting the ACT went the other way although that may have been an own goal
It’ll be interesting to see if there in movement in the female voting numbers in this round of polls or not
==============
Yep, just looking at those figures out of Victoria, I’m guessing when the state based figures emerge they will show a tick up for the state Libs and a tick down for state Labor.
This will be Jess Wilson’s first major poll as leader I suppose, as the last major poll (Demos AU) covered the “end of Battin”.
Having said that, Battin had the Lib Vic primary in the 40’s at the start of the year (on Resolve).
Don’t think Wilson will get it to that level, but the Vic Lib primary should tick up in 48 hours when it (the state Resolve poll) is released.
High Streetsays:
Sunday, December 7, 2025 at 12:52 pm
SL will have some better graphs but NSW has made it through the first really hot days of summer without electricity prices skyrocketing. Average NSW and QLD only approx. $50/MWh after 6 days. A forecast larger price spike yesterday did not eventuate (the days may not have reached as hot as was predicted), and a hot day on Friday did not eventuate to much.
No price spikes this week as max temp is only cracking 27 degs once, and that is to only 31.
Looking odds on that both September and December qtrs will show significant price drops from last year. Hopefully the government can turn this into a positive narrative in March when the draft DMO comes out.
______________________
Thanks, High Street. I look forward to your posts. I don’t have any recent graphs for electricity prices and if I did, they would be pretty boring due to the lack of price volatility.
For the uninitiated, it might seem trivial to focus on short term wholesale electricity pricing. However, due to the marginal pricing method used in the NEM – where the highest successful bidder sets the price for all other bidders – and a market price cap of $20,300/MWh, even short-lived high pricing events can have a disproportionate effect on retail electricity prices.
As High Street noted, if we can avoid too many price spikes and maintain the low prices from the last quarter, retail prices will drop next year.
New thread.
From the SMH
“ Exclusive polling shows support for Pauline Hanson’s party has risen to a record high as fears over the housing market and infrastructure fuel frustration over immigration.”
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/coalition-vote-crashes-to-record-low-as-housing-anger-fuels-one-nation-surge-poll-20251206-p5nlfd.html
bcsays:
Sunday, December 7, 2025 at 7:02 pm
I came across this essay arguing that means testing is effectively a highly inefficient tax. I’m not sure I agree.
https://westernsydneywonk.wordpress.com/2021/06/05/means-testing-is-a-dog-of-a-tax-and-it-will-destroy-welfare-state/comment-page-1/
_______________________
So I have five observations:
1) this article is an example of an economists brain as sleep deprived (or on cocaine).
2) I’d caution any analysis that mixes stocks (wealth) and flows (income) so casually – yes it is often used for some things (debt to GDP) but it is not always appropriate.
3) I think the article is a good example of making a very specific analytical definition (that denying the pension is tax that has a diminished rate for higher wealth holders) to make a specific policy demand (wealth tax) but ignoring the basic premise that if we apply this thinking to pensions, it would be proper to apply this thinking to all transfers.
For example, by this logic, I face an effective marginal tax on my wealth in the millions of per cent because I do not get a critical minerals product credit or instant asset write off, because I face the discrimination of not owning a critical minerals mine or a fleet of ford raptors to operate it.
4) the broad thrust of history has been a steady expansion of welfare benefits.
5) this line is blatantly wrong: “Cashflow is irrelevant. A dollar is a dollar; it doesn’t matter whether you lose a dollar from a receipt or pay an extra dollar in expense” – it’s wrong because people across income and wealth groups have very different marginal propensities to consumers, which has a tangible impact on inflation.
Hack @ #1922 Sunday, December 7th, 2025 – 7:02 pm
Yeah, nah 🙁