The Age reports the bi-monthly Resolve Strategic poll of Victorian state voting intention has Labor on 28% (down two), the Coalition on 39% (up six) and the Greens on 12% (steady), with the Coalition leading 51-49 on respondent-allocated preferences. As usual, this involved a sample of 1100 combining the Victorian samples from the pollster’s two regular monthly national surveys, which in this case complicates matters since it means the first half was conducted before the November 18 Liberal leadership change and the second half after. While the change is well within the margin of error, the report says the Coalition in fact did better in the first part of the period than the second, at 39% and 37% respectively.
Jess Wilson records a net approval rating of plus 11, presumably encompassing only the latter part of the survey, which is “the best by any Liberal leader since Resolve started polling in 2021”. Jacinta Allan is at minus 32, while Wilson leads by 41-24 as preferred premier, compared with a 33-27 lead for Brad Battin two months ago.
UPDATE (RedBridge Group/Accent Research): Now a RedBridge Group/Accent Research poll for the Financial Review records a tie on two-party preferred, after the pollster’s October result had Labor leading 52-48. The primary votes are Labor 31% (down one), Coalition 40% (up three), Greens 12% (down one), “minor left” 2%, “minor right” 4%, independents 6% and others 5%. Jacinta Allan records a 20% combined good and very good rating, 14% neither and 60% poor and very poor, while Jess Wilson is on 25% positive, 23% neutral and 22% negative. The poll was conducted from November 24 (a week after the Liberal leadership change) to December 8 from a sample of 1021. Extensive breakdowns are featured in the accompanying release.
Other Victorian electoral news:
• This site now boasts a Victorian state election poll aggregate, which currently credits Labor with a two-party lead of 50.3-49.7. This uses a bias-adjustment measure in which Newspoll serves as the centre of gravity, but apart from DemosAU’s Labor primary vote being inflated by a bit over two points, the adjustments are fairly modest. A permanent link can be accessed at the top of the sidebar.
• A Freshwater Strategy poll for the Herald Sun, conducted from November 21 to 24 from a sample of 1220 (Wilson became leader on November 18), had a 50-50 result on two-party preferred, with the Coalition on 37%, Labor on 30% and the Greens on 15%. Personal ratings (presumably favourable minus unfavourable, though neutral was a response option) were minus 32 for Jacinta Allan, plus 15 for Jess Wilson and plus 10 for Brad Battin, with Wilson leading Battin 47-31 as preferred premier. Thirty-three per cent said the change made them more likely to vote Liberal, 11% less likely, and 50% neither. Fifty-four per cent felt the change would improve the Coalition’s prospects, with 18% disagreeing and 26% doing neither. Sixty-two per cent professed awareness of the Liberal leadership change, with 32% unaware (always instructive in these cases is the gender gap, with 36% of women and 27% of men conceding ignorance).
• A Liberal preselection for Malvern, to be vacated at the election with the retirement of former party leader Michael O’Brien, was held a fortnight ago and won by Amelia Hamer, a former staffer to then Financial Services Minister Jane Hume and more recently director of strategy for financial technology start-up Airwallex and unsuccessful candidate for Kooyong at the May federal election. Daniella White of The Age reports Hamer, whose backers included Jeff Kennett, scored a surprisingly clear first-round win the ballot with 118 votes to 51 for Jacqueline Blackwell, who led a group that campaigned against prolonged school closures during the pandemic, and had determined backing from Josh Frydenberg. Also in the field were Lana Collaris, a barrister, with 31 votes, and Xavier Boffa, executive director of the Samuel Griffith Society, with 13.
• Annika Smethurst of The Age reports a new outfit called The West party will field candidates in western Melbourne, campaigning on neglect of its fast-growing suburbs. The principal of the outfit is Paul Hopper, who will again run in Werribee after polling 5.9% there as an independent at the February by-election. Hopper has been party to a High Court challenge against exemptions to campaign spending caps for the major parties’ “nominated entities”. Also identified as candidates are Newport Traders Association president Gill Gannon in Williamstown; Luan Walker, a Vietnamese-born former Liberal candidate, in St Albans; and for the Legislative Council, Joe Garra, an obstetrician who polled 11.2% as an independent in Werribee in 2018, and former Wyndham councillor Sahana Ramesh.
Time for Jacinta to go. If the magic trick of changing leaders works for the libs it can work for Labor too.
One thing interesting is that while the libs federally want to dump their moderates they seem to be having a renaissance at state level in some states.
Labor panicking and throwing out Jacinta will cause them far more harm than her leading them into the election will.
The victorian lib/nats combined primary vote under 40% in opinion polls , Real time voting in the Werribee By election. liberal primary vote was close to Labor both under 30%, the swing against Labor did not go to liberal party
the liberal party primary vote probably close to the 2022 victorian state election 29% .
Still a Labor majority looking likely
Greens on 15, nice. Bring on minority government
Battin will be wondering WTF?
Honeymoon period soon over for the Dei pick and btw Battin was on + 18 in another poll before stupid dumping.
Tpp the same under Wonder Woman as Battin and the other poll shows it has gone backwards.
They have the Malcolm’s the VIC liberal losers,that is snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
Cretins! Dummkophs !
Hmmm Kennett a fan and today’s Kennett article not behind a paywall.
Just do not mention Battin at all hey!
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/opinion/jeff-kennett-liberals-put-their-faith-in-women-leaders-and-jess-wilson-has-best-shot-of-being-elected/news-story/7e32b5b8e476ba98a86d91707e9febb2
Jess going well, has momentum, scoring runs. What to do with the train to nowhere. Will probably have to build minimum part of it and dump the rest. Sorts that out and it’s a win. Can’t wait to watch Melbourne’s Commonwealth Games.
Surely there’s no way any single party can glean a majority with a sub-30 primary vote.
Surely?
That the Libs vote dropped in the Resolve polling after the leadership change and the Age still tried to present it as the change to Wilson boosting their numbers tells you everything you need to know.
And this should be in her honeymoon period with voters (at least the voters aware the change has happened at all).
Meanwhile the Age spruiking of the new party reminds me of their spruiking of that mob before the last election, I think they were called the Angry Victorians, who didn’t even end up making it to the election to run candidates. The pitch is basically the same.
@Corleone “Time for Jacinta to go. If the magic trick of changing leaders works for the libs it can work for Labor too.
One thing interesting is that while the libs federally want to dump their moderates they seem to be having a renaissance at state level in some states. ”
The numbers show Wilson down on where Battin was. Change worked what?
And as for renaissance of moderates, Wilson (who’s from the IPA, so moderate is a relative term) overthrew Battin because Bev Macarthur and other Moira Deeming allies got jack of him. She’s very explicitly in the job with the backing of the nutters, Macarthur installed in a plum job as payback, etc. Let’s see if she puts out any moderate policy before declaring a “renaissance” eh?
Hope you’re right, getting bad vibes on Allen vs Wilson
Only consolation, if Labor do get back in I don’t know what magic tricks are left for the Libs after Wilson.
My two considerations are the maintenance of public services and the SRL. The latter if it makes it through 2026 will be practically finished in 2030 and a bit like MMT, will have gone from a drag on Labor to a positive. People who ride it from Box Hill to Cheltenham but don’t live on that section will be wanting it extended.
In the long term, I’m happy for there to be an opposition with a base of low taxes, all that jazz, just not the religious loons and crazies.
Funny summary by WB fails to mention who Hamer is (though most would know by now).
Pity the politics we would get with Premier Hamer won’t be her grandfather’s. Richard Court moderated his father’s approaches and John Cain was a bit more up-to-date than his father had been at the time. But Hamer won’t be either of this – regressive and right wing.
Arky says:
Wednesday, December 10, 2025 at 9:06 am
That the Libs vote dropped in the Resolve polling after the leadership change and the Age still tried to present it as the change to Wilson boosting their numbers tells you everything you need to know.
…
The nonsense out of the age and sun seems to be getting seriously deranged.
”But Hamer won’t be either of this – regressive and right wing.”
It’s how you get ahead in today’s “Liberal” party. Sussan Ley is catching on, with her Trumpian “Australian Values” and deportations.
It does not matter, nothing will save Victoria now. Labor or Labor lite. They are both quasi facist (love big corporations) and socialist (endless welfare for the least productive) authoritarian parties. Greens are just sheer nutcases in a bubble world, sycophants on the real wealth creators.
Federally, Australia is all headed the same way. Some people are starting to wake up and moving to parties that are more freedom orientated.
“Freedom oriented” – would that be One Nation, Clive Palmer’s next vanity project, Shooters &c, Libertarians?
Corleone
The mystery of Hamer’s politics, she is aligned to the Pesutto faction, people who know her say she is a moderate, people who don’t know her say she is right wing, but who is right. If Hamer is really hard right, Rob Baillieu would have been all over it.
Pied Piper
Brad Battin had limited appear beyond law & order. The Liberal Party has to win professional women from a pro-women government. Battin’s brand of politics did poorly in the federal election.
Wilson herself may be perfectly fine, it’s the nutters she leads who are the problem. Just as election campaigns brought Dutton and Guy and Guy down, so too will a little scrutiny of the Libs. Thoughts and prayers.
Ante Meridian says:
Wednesday, December 10, 2025 at 8:33 am
Surely there’s no way any single party can glean a majority with a sub-30 primary vote
—————————-
Labor primary vote will be in the 30’s
The Age’s reporting yesterday was wild. They framed a 39% to 37% change from Battin to Wilson as the “Jess Wilson factor” causing a “surge” in their primary vote.
Wait, what? Essentially the numbers showed a +6 with Battin followed by a -2 with Wilson (33, 39, 37), hardly the “Jess Wilson factor” causing the overall surge between polls.
I don’t say that to infer any opinion about who is actually better for them, just to demonstrate how poor The Age’s reporting is and how clearly they are desperately trying to carve out a narrative.
I think things will settle next with year Labor’s primary being in the 30-32 range, the Coalition primary back around 35-36, and probably a 5% 2PP swing (around 50/50 2PP) that might net the Coalition about 8 seats. Something like 36 LNP, 31 ALP, 13 GRN, 20 Other seems realistic to me.
Labor will go hard into campaign (and attack) mode as we enter 2026, the Liberals will have to come up with actual policies, some of the shine will be taken off the new leader and you can always rely on the Liberals to tear themselves apart. The whole scenario of the hard-right faction ousting their ally Battin for a Pesutto ally over Battin supporting Pesutto’s loan, and supporting Wilson on the condition that Macarthur get the upper-house leadership, is fragile to say the least. Their temporary “unity” is unlikely to last, especially as pre-selections roll around and we all know what faction runs most of the branches.
How has changing a leader made a party, one that barely functions as one somehow become more palatable. Could it be nothing more than the next new bright shiny thing.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/dec/10/victoria-liberal-candidate-grant-hutchinson-croydon-denies-bullying-claim-ntwnfb
__________________
Vic Libs probably in a bit of trouble here with this candidate for the crucial state seat of Croydon.
This seems like a pretty poor poll for an Opposition with a brand new and seemingly electable leader facing off against an 11-year-old government. Labor seems ready to lose in Victoria, and the Coalition really should be registering large-ish leads at this stage of the cycle. This is a pre-Christmas poll, of course, and it’s still eleven months from election day, but this poll doesn’t really scream “change of government”.
Not sure why this is so surprising.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. Labor are winning by default, not because of incredible policies and absolutely not because of charisma. Jobs for the boys, in bed with the Chinese, endemic low-grade corruption, a dismal environmental record that greenwashes extinction made palatable by sheer contrast, and pretty absent on vision for many a year now. This is not the party of Paul Keating.
Labor are winning because their opponents are even worse. Give the people an alternative they can get behind and they’ll send Labor packing, at least for a term or two.
I say this as someone that has voted Labor for 29 years.
LNP are in a winnable position with 11 months to go BUT the elephant in the room is the hopeless state of the LNP federally. Having said that 2 important factors occurred over the last month – inflation at 3.8% so the next rate move is up and the LNP FINALLY ditching net zero. Net zero is like being shackled to a corpse. Over the next 2 years it will be blamed for the sky rocketing energy prices and ALP will own that.
Christ, if these people were around 100 years ago they’d be bitching about creating the electricity grid in the first place.
“Too expensive, it’s complicated and I don’t understand so therefore I hate it, what’s wrong with keeping on using gas lamps and candles anyway?”
Is Jess Wilson the lipstick on the Liberal Pig ?
She has become the leader of the Libs with the support of Bev McArthur and Moira Deeming and their far right faction. Her speech opposing the motion of apology to indigenous Victorians reeked of culture war vitriol only surpassed by the hypocrisy of participating in a smoking ceremony celebrating the Treaty that she has undertaken to repeal in the first 100 days of her premiership should the LNP win government.
And the MSM insist on burnishing her “moderate” credentials.
She will remain leader only while she jumps to the orders of the far right nutters in the party room.
What the dickens!
run “as a form of Christian ministry”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/dec/10/victoria-liberal-candidate-grant-hutchinson-croydon-denies-bullying-claim-ntwnfb
Key update:
Definitely True 7
Probably True 1
Probably False 2
Definitely False 4
7 false keys for opposition 2PP win.
If it was today:
Definitely True 7
Probably True 1
Probably False 0
Definitely False 6
Thanks Arange, I thought you may drop by.
That is looking really tight.
There is a new poll on the AFR website, I’m just about to drop it on the main thread. Vic Polling
Vic based vote intention poll.
Pollster: Redbridge/Accent
Sample: 1021
Poll Period: 21-Nov to 8-Dec
… and apologies, there appears to be a bit of a secret from the journo as to the exact primaries, but they do provide a graph.
* LNP 40%
* ALP (looks to be about) 31%
* GRN (looks to be about) 17%. Stonking figure if true.
* Others (looks to be about 12%)
Their 2PP 50-50
Once again, for some reason the exact figures are not being published. Gosh, mega irritating!
Link: https://www.afr.com/politics/voters-see-vic-politics-as-the-deeply-unpopular-versus-the-untested-20251210-p5nmiw
& via Kos Samaras too..
https://x.com/KosSamaras/status/1998959635127247252?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
Do we think Wilson gets more popular the more she is seen, or the less?
Clearly her side were looking for a ‘bounce’ but don’t know if it is coming.
Kos seemed quite firm on the outer suburbs saving Labor, contra the narrative.
Particularly if the LNP do their usual trick of firming up rural seats they already have (or were going to get anyway)
-40 approval is disastrous. JA is losing better premier to a generic opposition leader.
No one has come back from such sustained poor ratings.
Media pushing Wilson to the hilt now. Seven and Nine going bananas over her and Murdoch press as well.
Labor should target climate change significantly next year and Wilson will need to have a policy on it or else she may eventually be in trouble in her seat. The seat she is in now has a pro climate change council and part of the seat has Monique Ryan as well. Wilson will need to have some policies in this area.
My way to peel back some Gen X drift to ON from labor
-use the dammed SEC they went to the trouble to set up last time
-ads on the TV and social media. “Remember before Kennett sold off YOUR SEC”
-get young teenage males on the TV and soc media “I didn’t wanna finish school and go to uni. Instead I am an apprentice with the SEC and getting a trade that will get me a $100K job by the time I am 25. All because of the government getting back where it should be – ” yadadada
-footage of the Latrobe Valley power “the people of victoria built these massive powerstations for future generations with the SEC. generations worked for the SEC and built up all this value. The Liberals sold it for a pittance. New power is coming – cleaner and cheaper than ever – and the SEC is back. Your SEC.”
Labor should go as economically populist as they can.