What is presumably the year’s final monthly Resolve Strategic poll for Nine Newspapers reverses a movement in the Coalition’s favour in the last result, with Labor’s two-party lead out from 53-47 to 55-45. Labor is up two on the primary vote to 35% and the Coalition down three to 26%, with the Greens down one to 11% and One Nation up two to 14%. Sussan Ley nonetheless records improved personal ratings, her combined very good and good rating on the question of performance in recent weeks up six to 39% (albeit that the improvement is entirely from “good” rather than “very good”) and combined poor and very poor down four to 37%. Anthony Albanese is up four on very good plus good to 48% and down one on poor plus very poor to 43%, and his lead as preferred prime minister shifts from 39-25 to 41-26.
Also featured are questions on immigration that tell a now familiar story: after being told of a system that features “net migration intake of 316,000 per year and grants permanent visas to 185,000 people per year”, 53% rated the level too high, 4% too low and 33% about right, compared with 49%, 5% and 27% when the question was last asked in September. The 53% were then asked about six possible reasons for holding that view, with 81% ticking the box for pressure on housing prices and 52% doing so for “a loss of Australian culture and identity”. Four further questions on potential immigration policies found the most restrictive most favoured, peaking at 64% support and 13% opposition for “pausing any immigration until our housing situation has caught up”. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Sunday from a sample of 1800.
Hard being Green,
Just on gender with this recent poll.
* Males (nationally) are almost voting at 40% for Labor
* For Females it is much more subdued at 31%, however the Green vote is higher at 16%
To access the “gender” data, on the middle right of the poll screen are two tabs – one is called Regions and the other Gender. Click on the gender box and off you go.
Here’s your housing crisis….
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BnqcPUUTCYs
Alan Kohler today.
Thanks Nadia
Interesting to see One Nation polling better with females than males this time around. An age breakdown would be interesting. Greens always do better with females
(From old thread)
Re Nadia @6:22, re Victorian State polling:
”* ALP & LNP 31% evens.
* Grn & O.N. 11% evens.
* Indies/Others 16%
What would that make it?”
My calculation ALP 2PP = 31 + 0 + 9 + 3 + 9 = 52%.
Will they knock off the runs before the storm front hits….?
Will Norris and Verstappen take each other out, leaving Piastri to pick up the P1 championship?
Kirsdarkesays:
Sunday, December 7, 2025 at 7:10 pm
@nadia at 6:19pm
It gets worse for Starmer, there was leadership approval ratings released from YouGov last week.
Starmer: 15% Approval (-4), 76% Disapproval (+3), -61% Net Approval
Badenoch: 30% Approval (+9), 45% Disapproval (-8), -15% Net Approval
Davey: 29% Approval (+4), 32% Disapproval (-2), -3% Net Approval
_________________
Starmer has large support on here which is some consolation for him.
It seems quite likely that the Liberal party changes to women leaders is a valiant attempt to win back women voters.
But they also need policies that might appeal to those voters – indeed, to all voters – rather than expecting to win elections without any policies at all.
Seems Sussan Ley is actually saving the L/NP from dipping even more.
Hard Being Green says:
Sunday, December 7, 2025 at 7:38 pm
Thanks Nadia
Interesting to see One Nation polling better with females than males this time around. An age breakdown would be interesting. Greens always do better with females
=============
O.N. (on Resolve) actually overtook the Greens amongst women on their 14-Sep poll, and maintained that lead until the 9-Nov poll where they drew evens. O.N. (amongst women), have again taken the lead today.
Would be interesting to know the age break-down of the women allegedly supporting O.N. over the Greens. Kos Samaras has been reporting all sorts of gloom this past few months for the Libs, however he somehow overlooked this little stat.
Resolve used to have a sub-tab for age, but it seems to have disappeared.
Anyway, i’d guess the Greens female vote is higher with under 50’s, and the O.N. female vote is higher for over 50’s.
Thanks also steve777 – very tight Federal 2PP in Victoria. Ven may be correct that the Allan gov’t may be weighing the federal ALP vote down a tad. We’ll see in 48 hours.
Edit: I apologise. The Greens National vote amongst women sits at 16% on this poll, which is 1 point higher than the O.N. vote of 15%
O.N. took the lead on the 14-Oct poll, and the greens have just taken it back.
Rex Douglas says:
Sunday, December 7, 2025 at 7:42 pm
Kirsdarke says:
Sunday, December 7, 2025 at 7:10 pm
@nadia at 6:19pm
It gets worse for Starmer, there was leadership approval ratings released from YouGov last week.
Starmer: 15% Approval (-4), 76% Disapproval (+3), -61% Net Approval
Badenoch: 30% Approval (+9), 45% Disapproval (-8), -15% Net Approval
Davey: 29% Approval (+4), 32% Disapproval (-2), -3% Net Approval
_________________
Starmer has large support on here which is some consolation for him.
================
… another positive is that the “76” figure gets Pres Macron off the hook for a week or so.
Rex – I am not sure if that is true as such. But she is probably not the actual problem that is dragging them down. A change of federal leader is unlikely to lead to a massive bounce.
https://www.lbc.co.uk/article/sir-keir-starmer-former-deputy-angela-rayner-return-to-cabinet-5HjdP52_2/
Angela Raynor to return to cabinet in the U.K.
She’s the one most likely to take his job next year after the council elections.
Probably better to have her on the inside p—ing out, then on the outside p—ing in.
Nearly all of the drop in Liberal support goes straight to One Nation, who are like the Liberals apart from having no “moderates” and no one who believes that we should at least appear to be doing something about the climate.
BW those storms are moving fast so may cause a delay.
There will be a massive bounce back for libs when they clear out so called moderates like Ley.
Seat warming for another six months or so.
Interest rate rises, with labors spending at a record for a fed gov will help.
Herald Sun 07/12
Clennell, wise to politicians stacking private trips with “official” functions to justify slugging taxpayers, asked Wells whether she’d known about her friend’s birthday party before she scheduled those “official engagements”.
Wells stood with mouth open for four seconds before stuttering: “I don’t … I can check the timeline for you, but, Andrew, this was a work trip.
_______________________
I think we can safely say she did know after that piss weak response.
Taylormade says:
Sunday, December 7, 2025 at 8:14 pm
Herald Sun 07/12
Clennell, wise…’
==============
‘Clennell’ and ‘wise’ are not two words that readily go together.
Clennell is a Labor-slagging hack.
nadia and newyboy
”
nadiasays:
Sunday, December 7, 2025 at 7:49 pm
Rex Douglas says:
Sunday, December 7, 2025 at 7:42 pm
Kirsdarke says:
Sunday, December 7, 2025 at 7:10 pm
@nadia at 6:19pm
It gets worse for Starmer, there was leadership approval ratings released from YouGov last week.
Starmer: 15% Approval (-4), 76% Disapproval (+3), -61% Net Approval
Badenoch: 30% Approval (+9), 45% Disapproval (-8), -15% Net Approval
Davey: 29% Approval (+4), 32% Disapproval (-2), -3% Net Approval
_________________
Starmer has large support on here which is some consolation for him.
================
… another positive is that the “76” figure gets Pres Macron off the hook for a week or so.
”
nadia and newyboy
The leaders of Britain, France and Germany, who are the bulwark of European support behind Ukraine and Zelensky, are deeply (when I say deeply, I mean seriously deeply unpopular. Infact I have never seen leaders of Britain, France and Germany so unpopular), it will be very difficult to convince their populace of further assistance to Ukraine.
Boerwarsays:
Sunday, December 7, 2025 at 8:17 pm
Taylormade says:
Sunday, December 7, 2025 at 8:14 pm
Herald Sun 07/12
Clennell, wise…’
==============
‘Clennell’ and ‘wise’ are not two words that readily go together.
Clennell is a Labor-slagging hack.
_______________________
It was a perfectly reasonable question for any journalist to ask and she fluffed it.
It was a perfectly reasonable question for any journalist to ask and she fluffed it.
__________________________________________________
In other considered opinions Taylormade does not think
is any good.
Well played Australia. Eight wicket margin is a fair measure of the match. England bowled well and Root and Stokes batted well, but Australia’s catching was vastly superior.
Following up a question from the previous thread:
bcsays:
Sunday, December 7, 2025 at 7:02 pm
I came across this essay arguing that means testing is effectively a highly inefficient tax. I’m not sure I agree.
https://westernsydneywonk.wordpress.com/2021/06/05/means-testing-is-a-dog-of-a-tax-and-it-will-destroy-welfare-state/comment-page-1/
_______________________
So I have five observations:
1) this article is an example of an economists brain as sleep deprived (or on cocaine).
2) I’d caution any analysis that mixes stocks (wealth) and flows (income) so casually – yes it is often used for some things (debt to GDP) but it is not always appropriate.
3) I think the article is a good example of making a very specific analytical definition (that denying the pension is tax that has a diminished rate for higher wealth holders) to make a specific policy demand (wealth tax) but ignoring the basic premise that if we apply this thinking to pensions, it would be proper to apply this thinking to all transfers.
For example, by this logic, I face an effective marginal tax on my wealth in the millions of per cent because I do not get a critical minerals product credit or instant asset write off, because I face the discrimination of not owning a critical minerals mine or a fleet of ford raptors to operate it.
4) the broad thrust of history has been a steady expansion of welfare benefits.
5) this line is blatantly wrong: “Cashflow is irrelevant. A dollar is a dollar; it doesn’t matter whether you lose a dollar from a receipt or pay an extra dollar in expense” – it’s wrong because people across income and wealth groups have very different marginal propensities to consumers, which has a tangible impact on inflation.
Oh yikes, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has similarly awful approval ratings.
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/german-chancellor-s-approval-collapses-with-23-satisfied-poll-finds/3754911
23% Approval, 75% Disapproval.
Party votes appear to be:
AfD: 26% (+5 from election)
CDU/CSU: 25% (-3)
SDP: 14% (-1)
Greens: 12% (=)
Left: 11% (+2)
At least thankfully it seems those pro-Russian leftists in the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance don’t seem to be breaching the 5% threshold needed to get seats for List candidates in their system.
Ven says:
Sunday, December 7, 2025 at 8:23 pm
…….nadia and newyboy
The leaders of Britain, France and Germany, who are the bulwark of European support behind Ukraine and Zelensky, are deeply (when I say deeply, I mean seriously deeply unpopular. Infact I have never seen leaders of Britain, France and Germany so unpopular), it will be very difficult to convince their populace of further assistance to Ukraine.
=================
Hmmm, yes I saw that Starmer visited Macron & Merz recently, seeking advice from those two on how to beat “Reform”.
Link: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15356055/Keir-Starmer-reveals-hes-enlisted-help-German-French-leaders-beat-Nigel-Farages-Reform-UK.html
If I was Starmer, I wouldn’t be wasting my time seeking Macron or Merz’s advice. I’d be speaking to my backbench.
Thanks for the Germany update Kirsdarke. Here’s the latest from France.
Macron Approval 15%, Disapproval 82% YouGov
https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/53597-how-popular-are-national-leaders-in-europe-november-2025
I’ll take back my 7.49 pm post.
Look’s like Starmer is back off the hook as Macron “takes the lead” again.
9pm tonight WA time Grand Prix.
Verstappen has come from nowhere pressure massive on the two other drivers.
Pied Piper
The Liberal Party won’t win government getting rid of the moderates and going right. Walking away from Net Zero has not helped their polling.
@nadia at 8:43pm
I suppose we’ll have some solid results about how Germany’s going in March next year, they have 2 state elections due.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Baden-W%C3%BCrttemberg_state_election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Rhineland-Palatinate_state_election
Both of which are West German states, so we’ll see if AfD makes inroads across the Cold War wall.
Then later on in September there’s East German states that look quite prepared to elect AfD state governments.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Mecklenburg-Vorpommern_state_election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Saxony-Anhalt_state_election
And there’s also Berlin in September (which I assume is a mix of East/West) where the Left party is making big gains.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Berlin_state_election
Amazing what the Russian social media influence campaigns can do to the popularity of good European and British leaders who are in opposition against Russia and Putin. It’s certainly got its supporters here as well who are convinced it’s the leaders of those countries who are the problem, and not Russia.
Good to see One Nation rabid racists & Country Party voters are behind an alcoholic running the country..
Among Coalition and One Nation voters, support for a Joyce-led One Nation is even more pronounced: 39 per cent and 49 per cent of voters, respectively, are more likely to vote for Hanson’s party if Joyce joins and becomes leader. Just 11 per cent and 8 per cent are less likely to vote for One Nation.
Resolve prove why polling companies are a threat to democracy… all they do is provide petrol to a fire
Resolve prove why polling companies are a threat to democracy… all they do is provide petrol to a fire
Exactly, Sceptic. And you only have to look at the breathless way every damn poll in the world is breathlessly reported here, down to helpful references to the page numbers and cross tabs that will ‘enlighten’ us further. When those same people, obsessively focussed on every damn poll in existence, were singularly unable to predict the result of the only poll that counts. The election.
Not to mention, and I have said it before, how quickly people have forgotten about Cambridge Analytica and the lesson of how ‘polling’ companies have been set up on purpose to flood the zone with shit polls, for the express purpose of swaying public opinion.
Oh well, I guess the rejoinder will be, but this is a site about polls! *sigh* If only this was a site for discretion and perspective about polls as well. Instead we are being herded into believing in the inevitability of Right Wing success the world over.
But I’m with you, Sceptic. A bit of scepticism goes a long way.
It’s more the fact that these leaders appear to be absolutely powerless to fight back against this pro-Russian fascist cabal that pisses me off the most.
If the leaders can’t fight back then what’s the point of them? Make way for people who can. Otherwise Russia looks like it could do a victory parade from Moscow to London with Alice Weidel in Germany, Jordan Bardella in France and Nigel Farage in the UK cheering them along all the way in 2030.
Paddington Starmer is in a mess of his own making nothing to do with child-murderer Putin 😡
Hack @ #1922 Sunday, December 7th, 2025 – 7:02 pm
Yeah, nah 🙁
c@t,
Per Macron, Merz & Starmer…and their respective polling.
Germany: I don’t know much about, except that Merz’s polling isn’t too flash, and it would appear his honeymoon with the voters is over. I don’t know if there is “Russian propaganda” flowing through the German media. Possibly in the eastern part, as that area was under Russian control post WW2.
The CDU & CSU used to be opposing parties, but he now heads an alliance of both. Without knowing much about that country, it looks similar to an alliance of the ALP & LNP batting off O.N.
France: Macron was targetted by the “yellow vests” campaign, but his polling fell off a cliff after he raised the retirement age in April 2023, from 62, to 64. He’s hated by both the far left & far right.
U.K.: I’ve never seen such a spectacular collapse of polling for a government only 17 months old.
The Westminster and Council by-elections, tell a worse picture than the official polls. The recent 14% primary, as reported here on Friday, is much better than some of the single figure by-election results U.K. Labour is getting atm, that is, when they bother to field a candidate.
Link here: https://www.markpack.org.uk/
{Click on the council by-election results tab to the right of the page}
Over the past week, in the U.K….
* Sir Keir did a speech attacking “brexit” and telling voters they were mislead, and that brexit is the cause of your woes. He basically told voters they were/are “stupid”. This won’t go down well.
* U.K. Labour also got into an unedifying mess with trans-gender members, telling them they could no longer participate in a Labour Women’s forum. We’re talking about a “handful of bio-men who identify as women”, who were attending a conference where they would probably, “& only”, talk on a few pieces of legislation or policy proposals. It’s certainly not a “militia of transgender women” coming to a changeroom near you.
Link here: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c773vm4n3n0o
To make things worse, they’ve apparently been told they can attend a few “fringe events”.
You’re talking about paid up members of the party, who’ve basically being told to fk-off.
To me, this U.K. Labour gov’t, is a mess. A complete, directionless, mess.
55;45 to the ALP! Really. Every day I read in the papers how cooked Albo is.
55;45 is an extraordinary outcome. And yet I think it overestimates the LNP vote by a significant margin.
I mean, seriously, what kind of moron could look at Barnaby Joyce and think, I need more of that in my government?
nadia @ #35 Sunday, December 7th, 2025 – 9:51 pm
Hit the nail on the head. I agree with this.
nadia says:
Sunday, December 7, 2025 at 9:51 pm
Germany: I think the CDU & CSU are more similar, so I think you mean the SDP? I guess it is Aus Labor’ish, though Wikipedia states that “It served as a junior partner to a CDU/CSU-led government from 1966 to 1969, 2005 to 2009, 2013 to 2021 and again since 2025. ” (aka, more like if Labor were in coalition with Menzies Liberals).
France: Broke basket case with everyone promising sunshine and rainbows.
UK: Broke basket case with everyone promising sunshine and rainbows (Brexit edition).
But I think the thing that ties them all together is that each have a big, bad right wing party as the principle opposition (with or without an actual parliamentary presence ala Reform); and are opposed by a veritable Star Wars Cantina of left wing parties – and a lot of them are pretty much are as pro-Russia as their right wing opposition (to be fair, the UK and German Greens parties are not, but I believe the latter has been “out-left’ed” on this front).
pied piper says:
Sunday, December 7, 2025 at 8:09 pm
There will be a massive bounce back for libs when they clear out so called moderates like Ley.
Seat warming for another six months or so.
Oh very droll. The Reactionary vote is in free fall. Why-oh-why would anyone vote for those idiots? They have absolutely no connection with nor feeling for the interests, values, needs and wants of the overwhelming majority of the electorate. There are very very few people under the age of 35 who will go near them. Their remnant support is among the twilight generation.
The single best thing they could do is to vote for their dissolution. By the time their US political kin – MAGA – come unstuck next year the Reactionaries will be totally unelectable. Well before the next Australian election the Reactionary vote will test the teens.
Australians will not vote for anti-social, incompetent, deceitful, ideological/doctrinal imbeciles.
MABWM says:
Sunday, December 7, 2025 at 9:53 pm
55;45 to the ALP! Really. Every day I read in the papers how cooked Albo is.
55;45 is an extraordinary outcome. And yet I think it overestimates the LNP vote by a significant margin.
I mean, seriously, what kind of moron could look at Barnaby Joyce and think, I need more of that in my government?
______________________________________
The problem is that the professional score-keepers are not keeping up, or are now having to shift goal posts in order to maintain an oppositional narrative (and to things people don’t care about or want).
The big one of the past month was the EPBC act changes, which we were assured would only ever pass with LNP approval or would fall into the new year and even be DD trigger. But boy those passed quickly in the end.
The quiet achievement not much discussed was the content quota on the big foreign streamers – also passed quite quickly despite some claiming that there was a secret back-down happening.
Yes there are some big things outstanding (gambling ads for one), but there are other examples of incredible goal shifting. The Amy Remeikis piece posted earlier made the ludicrous claim that, all of a sudden, no one cares about gas reservation now (I wonder why she would think that now? It has certainly been her employer’s position for the last decade that it would be an instant vote winner).
Plus there are some issues bubbling away that are only getting piecemeal attention. Migration for starters is by far the preferred way of tackling housing costs by the majority of the public – I don’t take ON’s rise lightly. Also I’ve not seen any polls on this, but I’m starting to suspect the public is even turning against the NDIS as more stories of rorts and cost explosion occurs.
On (or ON?) Barnaby Joyce, the issue is that while he may be the worst performer for the LNP, he would still be a massive up-lift for ON. It is about basic political sense – Pauline Hanson’s party would perform a lot better if Pauline herself just shut up for a few months and stop doing “overtly” racists stunts. This is a very cynical view, but what ON needs is some anti-migration non-white senators to give some “we’re not racist” cover (like how Jacinta Nampijinpa Price does for the LNP).
Player One says:
Sunday, December 7, 2025 at 9:25 pm
Hack @ #1922 Sunday, December 7th, 2025 – 7:02 pm
In general, more people is a very good thing.
Yeah, nah
Scale
Complexity
Variety
Resilience
Energy
Vitality
Strength in numbers
Of course this does not conform to the current Reactionary doctrinal sermon.
If you’d like to see a place that once upon a time had a population and an economy of sorts, visit Nullagine. Visit the stations on the Indian-Pacific rail line. Live it up in Cook.
Picture this scenario
People of Britain, France and Germany hate their leaders as per the net approval ratings. Those ratings are diabolical to put it mildly.
Trump supports Putin version of events and okay with the peace process as dictated by Putin.
Trump also said that Europe needs to contribute to defence of Europe far greater than now.
That means Britain, France and Germany have to increase their defence expenditure not only for their defence but also for the defence of Europe and Ukraine.
Hence, the financial resources they spent on social security payments will need to be drastically reduced. Try tell that to people who hate you i.e. we will reduce social security payments because we want to increase defence expenditure and provide assistance to Ukraine to defend against Russia.
Imagine what the people will think when the leader tries to explain that.
Ven says:
Sunday, December 7, 2025 at 11:01 pm
There needs to be explicitly redistributive tax reform. The behemoths – the billion and trillion dollar corporates – need to pay more. A lot more. And workers should pay less. Noticeably less.
Ven @ #42 Sunday, December 7th, 2025 – 11:01 pm
Yeah, I picture that scenario alright. If that happens then, as mentioned, Putin or whatever successor comes along if he cark’s it will be able to run a victory parade from Moscow to London in the 2030’s. Heck, even if most of their Soviet-era tanks break down, the pro-Russian governments along the way would be eager to service them to get them back on their way. Even through the UK-France Channel Tunnel.
The CDU & CSU used to be opposing parties, but he now heads an alliance of both. Without knowing much about that country, it looks similar to an alliance of the ALP & LNP batting off O.N.
——————
Sorry, but that is incorrect. (And I think a typo of sorts.) The CDU and CSU are and always have been sister parties. The CDU is the nationwide version of the party, the CSU is the Bavarian portion. (a bit like the Libs in Australia and the LNP in Queensland – indeed there are a multitude of similarities. They are Christian Democrats – in truth they are quite conservative socially and fiscally.
It is the SPD – (A labor type party) who have always traditionally been the “other side” to the CDU and CSU.
The rise of Alternativ fuer Deutshland are the extreme right wing anti-immigration party that have grown out of the former East German States. They are an articulate version of One Nation, but nastier and more astute.
The CDU/CSU and the SPD have been joining up to combat their rise. Let’s hope they win out. The AfD are ultra nationalist hate mongers.
(Ich wohnte dort in die Achtziger Jahren.)
______________
The LNP won’t join up with the ALP to bat off ON. The LNP and ON are in bed together.
Also with the AfD on 26%, they’re not far off on the 33% it took for Hitler to win eventually in 1932-33.
Thankfully they don’t seem to be making much gains from that at the moment, but after September next year when they’ll probably win some State governments that’ll shift things.
DHS agents pepper-spray Rep. Grijalva, Sentinel reporter during protest sparked by Tucson raid
Grijalva called DHS tactics ‘abusive’ after crowd hit by fusillade of tear gas & pepper balls when federal agents tried to leave Taco Giro restaurant
https://www.tucsonsentinel.com/tag/adelita+grijalva/
MABWM (Mittelalterhaarloserweissmann!) says:
Sunday, December 7, 2025 at 11:22 pm
The CDU & CSU used to be opposing parties, but he now heads an alliance of both. Without knowing much about that country, it looks similar to an alliance of the ALP & LNP batting off O.N.
——————
Sorry, but that is incorrect. (And I think a typo of sorts.) The CDU and CSU are and always have been sister parties. The CDU is the nationwide version of the party, the CSU is the Bavarian portion. (a bit like the Libs in Australia and the LNP in Queensland – indeed there are a multitude of similarities. They are Christian Democrats – in truth they are quite conservative socially and fiscally.
It is the SPD – (A labor type party) who have always traditionally been the “other side” to the CDU and CSU.
The rise of Alternativ fuer Deutshland are the extreme right wing anti-immigration party that have grown out of the former East German States. They are an articulate version of One Nation, but nastier and more astute.
The CDU/CSU and the SPD have been joining up to combat their rise. Let’s hope they win out. The AfD are ultra nationalist hate mongers.
==============
Ok. So the picture is even bigger.
It’s the CDU/CSU and the now the SPD joining up to combat their rise.
In “Oz speak” it’s the Libs, the QLD LNP & Labor, versus O.N.
Got it.
The CDU/CSU and SPD were in coalition under Merkel. She explains German politics in her book Freedom.
nadia @ #48 Sunday, December 7th, 2025 – 11:35 pm
And with Germany’s MMP voting system, a government pretty much has to be formed from a Coalition.
With AfD as the biggest party on 26%, the CDU/SPD “Grand Coalition” on (25+14=39%) can’t form a majority, and the remainder being the Greens on 12% and The Left on 11% who want nothing to do with such an outfit, a majority government in Germany thus becomes unelectable until pressure builds enough for some kind of breakthrough, the most likely scenario being an AfD-CDU Coalition with an AfD Chancellor.
There’s plenty of books on 1930’s Germany on how that went down last time.