Miscellany: BludgerTrack, Newspoll aggregates, One Nation Senate vacancy (open thread)

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate returns, as does Newspoll’s semi-regular demographic and geographic aggregation.

A little under five months after the federal election, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate has made its return, presently aggregating 14 poll results on voting intention and eight for leadership ratings. Going back as far as mid-June, it records a stable picture on two-party preferred, with Labor holding a consistent lead of around 57.5-42.5, but is distinctive on the primary vote in picking up a surge to One Nation, who are at level pegging with the Greens, at the expense of the Coalition. The series now makes use of the data from Roy Morgan, which was excluded in the previous term for reasons including its excessive frequency relative to other pollsters. This hasn’t been an issue post-election, having moved to roughly monthly reporting (a fresh result should be along later today), and it’s also relevant that it performed rather well at the election by leaning more strongly to Labor than its rivals.

BludgerTrack does not currently have enough data to work with to produce state breakdowns, but it gets one step closer today with The Australian publishing the first Newspoll geographic and demographic breakdown since the election, combining 3811 responses from three polls going back to mid-July. The full results on voting intention can be found under the “Poll Data” tab in the BludgerTrack display. At state level, it records two-party results of 60-40 to Labor in New South Wales (a swing to Labor of around 4.5% since the election), 58-42 in Victoria (around 1.5%), 51-49 in Queensland (ditto), 54-46 in Western Australia (a swing of around 2% to the Coalition) and 55-45 in South Australia (around 4% to the Coalition, bearing in mind that by this point the sample size is down to 283). There is no gender gap on two-party preferred, with Labor leading 57-43 among men and women, but Anthony Albanese has a narrower advantage over Sussan Ley on preferred prime minister among women (49-31) than men (54-31).

One further point to be noted is that New South Wales has a new Senator in Sean Bell, who fills the One Nation vacancy arising from the retirement of Warwick Stacey, who was elected in May, on grounds of ill health. A former adviser to Pauline Hanson, Bell was announced by the party as Stacey’s designated successor one day before a joint standing of state parliament convened to rubber-stamp its choice last week. Bell in fact lives in Queensland, but a party spokesperson told Max Maddison of the Sydney Morning Herald he was “in the process” of moving to the state he now represents.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,430 thoughts on “Miscellany: BludgerTrack, Newspoll aggregates, One Nation Senate vacancy (open thread)”

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  2. I don’t think Hastie has ever answered the question as to whether he is a Creationist. His father apparently is.

    I don’t think Morrison ever answered the question either.

    Frankly I don’t really care if someone believes in God or not. But if they refuse to accept the scientific consensus over Evolution then that’s a problem for me.

  3. Steve777 says:
    Thursday, September 25, 2025 at 4:05 pm
    ”Liberal MP Andrew Hastie says he supports the opposition leader, Sussan Ley, and anyone suggesting otherwise is “being mischievous”, rubbishing speculation he is preparing a tilt at the leadership.”

    He “officially denied” wanting the leadership a while ago, now denies it again. Not only that, he now says he supports the leader. Not sure whether he is “ambitious for her” but he probably is.

    So it’s definitely on.
    ============
    I think so.
    Clearly bubbling atm. The moderates bringing out Sinodinos & Vanstone suggests a threat.
    Parliament next sits between 7-9 October. That will be when they all gather together again.

  4. Boerwar says:
    Thursday, September 25, 2025 at 6:04 pm

    Pegasus says:
    Thursday, September 25, 2025 at 6:02 pm

    Greg Jericho: Australia, along with other OECD countries, is mired in mediocrity…’
    ======================
    I do hope Jericho excepted the Greens from this droll appreciation.

    ____________________________________________

    No, the problem with Greg Jericho is that he is becoming increasingly lazy in one aspect, and increasingly deranged in another.

    I suspect he is reacting to the SMH headline, which was somewhat positive for Australia … so of course had to be adversely reacted too.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australia-could-soon-have-the-strongest-economy-in-the-developed-world-but-it-s-a-weak-field-20250923-p5mx6p.html

    I’d react to two specific points he made –

    Firstly: “The OECD doesn’t care about climate change”

    Well, if he opened the link

    https://www.oecd.org/en/topics/sub-issues/economic-outlook.html

    And scrolled down slightly to the long run projections:

    He may have been far more amenable to stuff like (shhh, don’t tell the Chinese – their targets are “perfect” remember):
    https://www.oecd.org/en/topics/sub-issues/economic-outlook/long-run-economic-scenarios-2025-update.html

    I can’t emphasis enough – the OECD released at the same time a larger parallel report modeling different climate transition paths, along side the paper with the “one climate change reference”. Jericho is a lazy hack.

    Secondly, Greg does like to live with some strong tunnel vision – perfectly encapsulated by his unemployment rate chart:

    I can only describe Greg as “Trumpian” – demanding the head of our central bank leadership in the same way Trump seeks to sack the Fed, both for the crime of not rapidly cutting interest rates.

  5. Mavis@6.36pm

    Hastie can’t even be original, and there is little doubt that he’s unaware of what Powell advocated:

    ‘Yesterday Andrew Hastie used words that echoed those of English white nationalist Enoch Powell and his infamous “Rivers of Blood”* speech,’ she said.

    ‘Powell told the 1968 Conservative Party conference that white British people found themselves “made strangers in their own country”.

    ‘Andrew Hastie repeated very similar words yesterday in relation to migration numbers when he said ‘we’re starting to feel like strangers in our own home.

    ‘Is Hastie, who has said he wishes to lead the Liberal Party and the country, harking back to Enoch Powell because he is ignorant of history? Or is he using Powell’s words deliberately? I don’t know, but we must be very careful in this debate.’

    Spender also reflected on her upbringing with her mother, iconic Aussie fashion designer Carla Zampatti, who migrated from Italy to Australia in 1950.

    ‘Australia is a nation where half the population was either born overseas or had at least one parent born overseas.’

    She cautioned against the normalisation of divisive rhetoric, citing the March for Australia rallies on August 31, where neo-Nazi group members delivered speeches and violent clashes erupted between demonstrators and counter-protesters in Melbourne.

    ‘Already we’ve seen neo-Nazi organised anti-immigration rallies. Now disturbing echoes of the racist division of the past have crept into the political mainstream.’

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15131791/andrew-hastie-stranger-spender-migration.html

    * https://anth1001.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/enoch-powell_speech.pdf

    Thanks for posting this!

    I presume Hastie and the other far right peoples are assuming that Australia will go the way of Hungary and the USA (for example), where eventually the non-far-right option will be discredited, and no matter how nasty and nutty they seem. The assumption is that eventually they will be voted in by the populace – or close enough to said outcome (see e.g Weimar Germany 1932), that with some bully-boy anti-democratic effort, the far-right revolution takes care if itself.

  6. Mr Conviction: What’s behind Andrew Hastie’s new crusade?
    ByNatassia Chrysanthos, Paul Sakkal and James Massola

    When Coalition MPs were jostling for fresh positions after their shattering election loss this year, Andrew Hastie had one request of new leader Sussan Ley. The West Australian MP and former soldier wanted to branch out of the security space.

    Hastie had felt pigeonholed during his three years as defence spokesman under Peter Dutton. Colleagues say the WA frontbencher, one of the few opposition MPs to improve the Liberal vote in his electorate, grew increasingly frustrated as Dutton, himself a former defence minister, kept Hastie out of the political fray, partly so he didn’t emerge as a rival. Hastie used his spare time in the previous parliament to study for a graduate diploma in economics online through Harvard Extension School and expand his credentials.

    So when it came time for Ley to reset the frontbench in May, Hastie asked to spread his wings. He requested either an economics portfolio or something firmly outside national security, such as health or education. Ley gave him home affairs.

    Several close colleagues say this grievance is one driver of Hastie’s bullish activity in the past few months. The frontbencher, 42, is building a brand as a conviction politician by commenting on issues outside his portfolio in a steady stream of provocative social media posts and radio interviews.

    “He’s been terribly frustrated at a personal and professional level,” says a friend and political ally. Now, he’s refusing to be boxed in.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/mr-conviction-what-s-behind-andrew-hastie-s-new-crusade-20250924-p5mxhu.html

    More study? I thought he said he wished he could spend more time with his young family?

  7. Shellbell, using Occam’s razor, is the voice of reason.

    My comments on the Boele / Kapterian AEC case were tinged with my irritation that Kapterian had mentioned Boele as well as the AEC in her submission to the court, thus potentially bankrupting Boele.

    I need to remember that what is lawful is not what I consider fair.

  8. Looking at the polling in Hungary, the days of the Right ruling there are probably going to come to close next year. Same with Israel where Bibi’s days are numbered and there has to be an election in 12 months.

  9. ‘Queensland Senator Matt Canavan backed Mr Hastie’s recent activism, saying he’s tapped into community “hunger” for change.

    “Clearly, Andrew is tapping a vein of frustration here, including among young people online. So all power to him,” Senator Canavan told 7.30.

    Senator Canavan said he still wants the current leader, Ms Ley, “to do very well” though.’

    – ABC

    Canavan’s full of shit. How can he support the disloyal Hastie yet still want Ley “to do very well”? And Hastie should stop reading the comments section of the Daily Mail to form his views; they aren’t indicative of where the majority of the electorate sits – the sensible centre.

  10. Mavissays:
    Thursday, September 25, 2025 at 8:01 pm
    [‘Queensland Senator Matt Canavan backed Mr Hastie’s recent activism, saying he’s tapped into community “hunger” for change.
    ___________________
    This is all about getting his name out there.

  11. B. S. Fairman says:
    Thursday, September 25, 2025 at 7:57 pm
    Looking at the polling in Hungary, the days of the Right ruling there are probably going to come to close next year.
    ===========
    Really?
    The party challenging Fidesz (Orban’s club) is known as Tisza.
    Tisza is an offshoot of Fidesz and is also a Conservative Right wing outfit.

    Tisza Link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tisza_Party

    Current polling:
    Fidesz 43% {= Far Right}
    Tisza 37% {= Right wing Conservative}
    Others – who cares

    Link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_Hungarian_parliamentary_election

  12. Congressional lawmakers and their aides are bracing for a shutdown that appears inevitable after President Trump canceled a meeting planned for Thursday with Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer (N.Y.) and House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries (N.Y.).
    Senate Democrats have said they cannot vote for any House-passed government funding bill if GOP leaders refuse to sit down and talk with them, but Republicans say there’s nothing to negotiate, framing next week’s vote on a “clean” continuing resolution to keep the government open as a take-it-or-leave-it proposition.
    “I think there’s a 99 percent chance that there’s a shutdown. There just doesn’t seem to be any endgame for either party to get out of a shutdown,” said Brian Darling, a GOP strategist and former Senate aide. “Republicans want to show that they want to get their priorities funded and I think the Democrats need to dig in and show that they can fight. I think both parties have an incentive from their base to shut their government down, it’s just a matter of how long,” he said.
    Trump has made it clear he’s not ready to offer any concessions to Schumer and Jeffries. He’s also prepared to make the shutdown as painful as possible for Democrats by prioritizing funding for Republican requests and shifting money from Democratic-leaning states to GOP strongholds.
    https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5520645-trump-democrats-funding-showdown/

  14. noth

    I don’t think Hastie has ever answered the question as to whether he is a Creationist. His father apparently is.

    I don’t think Morrison ever answered the question either.

    Frankly I don’t really care if someone believes in God or not. But if they refuse to accept the scientific consensus over Evolution then that’s a problem for me.

    They are New Earth creationists.

    Hastie and Morrison go to Assemblies of God churches. They come under different names “Hillsong’, “ShireLive’, but if you go to the development applications, they are all listed as “Assemblies of God”.

    Unfortunately, through my ex-husband’s family*, I got to know one of the first Assemblies of God churches in Australia, at what is now Orchard Hills near Penrith.

    I tend to be polite when it comes to talking about other peoples religion, but these people were seriously weird. Christmas presents to the kids were books by Duane Gish. The one church service I attended, for a niece’s christening, was so weird that I just said NO, NEVER Again!! And saying that to my in-laws and then husband was full rebellion, and the beginning of the end for my marriage. You do not say no to the, and if you do they pursue you to the ends of the Earth.

    At the weird service, there were people falling about themselves with echolalia, and three hours of ?. I was about to write three hours of Hell Fire and Brimstone, but it was really just three hours of not much.

    Anyway, taking of Hellfire and Brimstone:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yk_xNGkFHO0

  15. Usually “money bills” in the U.S. are filibuster proof. ie: A straight 50+1 majority is required to get them through the Senate. Non “money bills” require a “60+” vote in the Senate.

    Looks like Republicans’ Lisa Murkowski and Rand Paul have blocked the current legislation, leading to a possible gov’t shutdown in early October.

    Perhaps those two Senators are “sniffing the breeze” in the U.S.
    Swings against Pres Trump in recent elections are hovering around the 6-8% mark.

  16. Holdenhillbilly @ #1362 Thursday, September 25th, 2025 – 8:12 pm

    Congressional lawmakers and their aides are bracing for a shutdown that appears inevitable after President Trump canceled a meeting planned for Thursday with Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer (N.Y.) and House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries (N.Y.).
    Senate Democrats have said they cannot vote for any House-passed government funding bill if GOP leaders refuse to sit down and talk with them, but Republicans say there’s nothing to negotiate, framing next week’s vote on a “clean” continuing resolution to keep the government open as a take-it-or-leave-it proposition.
    “I think there’s a 99 percent chance that there’s a shutdown. There just doesn’t seem to be any endgame for either party to get out of a shutdown,” said Brian Darling, a GOP strategist and former Senate aide. “Republicans want to show that they want to get their priorities funded and I think the Democrats need to dig in and show that they can fight. I think both parties have an incentive from their base to shut their government down, it’s just a matter of how long,” he said.
    Trump has made it clear he’s not ready to offer any concessions to Schumer and Jeffries. He’s also prepared to make the shutdown as painful as possible for Democrats by prioritizing funding for Republican requests and shifting money from Democratic-leaning states to GOP strongholds.
    https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5520645-trump-democrats-funding-showdown/

    I’m making a prediction that there won’t be a shutdown. Hakeem Jeffries and Chuck Schumer have pool noodles instead of spines and they’ll do their usual whimpering before voting for whatever shit sandwich the Republicans serve to them.

  18. Kirsdarke,

    Murkowski & Paul, are possibly the “Sinema and Manchen” of the Biden era.

    Difficult herding politicians as Pres Trump is now finding out.

    I agree with you though, although I think it is they who will backflip and get the finance bill through.

  19. nath says:
    Thursday, September 25, 2025 at 7:20 pm
    “rankly I don’t really care if someone believes in God or not. But if they refuse to accept the scientific consensus over Evolution then that’s a problem for me.”

    There is a problem there.. the positions are mutually exclusive.

  20. Mainstream Christians mostly don’t have a problem with evolution. The teaching is that God created the Universe and everything in it. How he did it, when or how long it took is not an issue.

  22. Kirsdarke, whilst I agree with your assessment of Schumer and Jeffries, not getting a bill through with current numbers can only be a Republican problem. Given how poor the current government there is, shutdown would be an improvement.

  23. Nadia – Sure, Tisza is conservative but it is not loopy pro-Putin Trump like Far Right populism. They are also pro-European Union.
    Also the polling you quote is heavily biased to Fidesz.
    Anything different to the current situation is going to be an improvement over Orban.

  24. Zwaktyld @ #1372 Thursday, September 25th, 2025 – 8:50 pm

    Kirsdarke, whilst I agree with your assessment of Schumer and Jeffries, not getting a bill through with current numbers can only be a Republican problem. Given how poor the current government there is, shutdown would be an improvement.

    Ordinarily yes, it would be. But given that Schumer and enough Weimar Democrats voted for cloture for the “Big Beautiful Bill” for it to pass, well, it just won’t suit their lobbyists to be inconvenient this time around.

  25. B. S. Fairman says:
    Thursday, September 25, 2025 at 8:55 pm
    Nadia – Sure, Tisza is conservative but it is not loopy pro-Putin Trump like Far Right populism. They are also pro-European Union.
    Also the polling you quote is heavily biased to Fidesz.
    ===============
    The polling I quote is a direct lift from wiki. I didn’t arrange the polling figures between your original post at 7.57 pm , and my reply post at 8.04 pm.
    How do you know the polling numbers are “heavily biased”to Fidesz?

  30. nath:
    Frankly I don’t really care if someone believes in God or not. But if they refuse to accept the scientific consensus over Evolution then that’s a problem for me.

    This is the benchmark for me as well. I cannot abide Young Earth creationists. Them, and the flat earthers (flerfers).

  32. Nadia – From the same Wiki Article. It warns about the pollster having alleged biases. The most recent one is from a pollster described “as Trumps Pollster”. There is certainly a variance between the polls there described as pro-Government and Anti-Government. So who actually knows who is in front.
    It does seem however, that the opposition has consolidated behind the main opposition grouping as opposed to being fragmented as they have been for the virtually the whole Orban’s reign.

  33. frednk – Fight over the caucus or the carcass? Or the carcass of the caucus? The bones are not going to have much meat left on them soon.

  34. Wow, those last words from whoever it was replacing Andrew Bolt in that last bit.

    “Andrew Hastie is now the Liberal Party leader, he just hasn’t been given the position yet.”

  35. B.S.F.

    So it seems that the Hard Right & the Conservative Right in Hungary are galvanising about 80% of the vote (43 + 37) : leaving about 20% to the “left”.

    It might be easier we refer to Hungary as the “Alabama” of Europe.
    It happens.

  37. Evolution is not just a scientific consensus or a theory. Modern medicine, the treatment of disease and infection prove it every second. It is tested and found correct in every minute of every hour in every hospital on the globe.

  38. Tony BURKO a fed labor government globalist should remove the 100,000 visa overstayers who have exhausted their appeal process.
    Tens of thousands more are also appealing.
    Hastie has done well and will let the seat warmer get nowhere for a year then will pop up and take libs forward.

  39. Nadia – I disagree with your view that Tisza is a right wing party. They seem fairly centrist in terms of their policies.
    They are the left wing option if the only alternative is Orban’s neo-fascism.

  41. Another thing I’ve seen popping up often in the University underpayment cases is when a staff member has previously been paid non-superannuated allowances, which at some point, often through either an updated enterprise agreement or a legislative change, became superannuated allowances.

    Meaning that the person didn’t so much as get underpaid on a fortnightly salary, but that their superannuation wasn’t paid correctly.

    What of course the problem here is that, even when they get that missed superannuation paid, they’ve often missed out in the capital growth of that money over time.

  42. OC
    Did she have her handcuffs?
    You really missed out there
    —————————-
    I just hope that was a gun in her pocket.
    ………

    Been on a walk with the eldest on a Tassie mountain. It snowed. Doesn’t get better. Thanks Tassie.

  44. More payroll drama.

    The other common underpayment comes from casual rates. Often universities pay casuals based on their degree level. I’ve seen quite a few casual academic staff who attained their PhD not get the higher level casual rate this award entitles them to. It’s a bit set and forget on those rates so a person who never informed their uni they got conferred a higher degree often means the pay rates haven’t been updated (or back dated when they do).

    I’m here all night with this comedy gold.

  46. B.S.F.

    “My view that Tisza is a right wing party”????????

    Have you read the wiki entry: to quote…

    “The Respect and Freedom Party (Hungarian: Tisztelet és Szabadság Párt

    ˈtistɛlɛt ˈeːʃ ˈsɒbɒt͡ʃːaːɡ ˈpaːrt

    , TISZA), commonly referred to as the Tisza Party (Hungarian: Tisza Párt

    ˈtisɒ ˈpaːrt

    ), is a conservative political party in Hungary that was founded in 2020. It rapidly rose to prominence when former Fidesz party member Péter Magyar joined;”

    Can I ask – why do you think this is my view? I am just going by the wiki entry, and before anyone goes “rabbiting on” that wiki is rigged or “rubbish”, wiki is one of the most audited and fact checked sites on the internet.

    Regardless, if you want to believe that a left wing party would utilise the descriptor “conservative” to galvanise left and far left voters, well OK.

    I think the simpler expression of, “Hungary is the Alabama or Florida of Europe”, is probably more realistic. It happens in the U.S.A. and probably happens in Europe too.

  47. “He’s been terribly frustrated at a personal and professional level,” says a friend and political ally. Now, he’s refusing to be boxed in.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/mr-conviction-what-s-behind-andrew-hastie-s-new-crusade-20250924-p5mxhu.html

    Meh. If Andrew Hastie was given health or economics portfolio he would whinge about something else. It’s manufacturing a reason to challenge. Whether Julia Gillard justifying a challenge because Kevin Rudd sent out adviser to test the numbers or Malcolm Turnbull coming up with a flimsy reason insisting he had to do it and it wasn’t to do with ambition. We have heard them all and Hastie is not fooling anyone with his crocodile tears ‘feeling boxed in’. He’s been given a very senior portfolio rather then made irrelevant. I really think he’s done himself harm with this undermining. He looks like a wrecker and opportunist rather then doing the hard yards and staying loyal like Jim Chalmers.


  48. B. S. Fairman says:
    Thursday, September 25, 2025 at 9:13 pm

    frednk – Fight over the caucus or the carcass? Or the carcass of the caucus? The bones are not going to have much meat left on them soon.

    Carcuss.

  49. TK, the snow is falling late this year, it usually stops by the end of August. My better half marks her birthday for the spot in the year for when the weather breaks warmer (this weekend)

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