It is now six months minus one day until a South Australian state election scheduled for March 21, and three months plus one day since the last published opinion poll. One should not to hold one’s breath awaiting for a change to the latter situation (although you never know), but there has naturally been a substantial accumulation of election-related news in the interim, which can be summarised as follows:
• This week’s surprise retirement announcements by Deputy Premier Susan Close and Treasurer Stephen Mullighan create plum Labor preselection vacancies in their respective seats of Port Adelaide and Lee, but I’m aware of no reporting as to who might fill them.
• The Liberal Party state council last week determined the order of the party’s Legislative Council ticket, which will be headed by the two incumbents seeking re-election as Liberals, Ben Hood and Heidi Girolamo. The ticket is dominated by factional conservatives: in addition to Hood and Girolamo, their numbers include Rowan Mumford at number three, a former state party president who ran unsuccessfully in Kavel in 2022; Thea Hennessey at number four, co-owner of a construction business and part-time policy adviser, who was favoured for second position by Antic; and Belinda Crawford-Marshall in the unpromising sixth position. The only moderate is KD Singh, an Adelaide financial planner who emigrated from India in 2008, who holds a fifth position that has not availed the party since 2002. Of the other two Liberals with expiring terms, Terry Stephens will retire and Jing Lee, who resigned from the party in January and will seek re-election with her newly founded Better Community party.
• The upper house preselection occurred against the backdrop of division within the conservative camp between Senator Alex Antic and federal Barker MP Tony Pasin on the one hand, and former federal Boothby MP Nicolle Flint on the other. David Penberthy of The Australian reported last month that the two sides were respectively identified by their opponents as the “prayer group” and the “coalition of the disaffected”. Antic sought unsuccessfully to have Girolamo reduced to an unwinnable spot behind Hennessy, Playford mayor Glenn Docherty (who withdrew his nomination) and Crawford-Marshall.
• The Liberals have confirmed that Frank Pangallo, an upper house member who began political life with the Nick Xenophon’s SA-Best, will be their candidate for the Adelaide seat of Waite. Pangallo said in June he was “weighing up” joining the Liberal Party, criticising Labor over the cost of living, ambulance ramping and the state’s algal bloom crisis. Pangallo hit a spot of trouble last week when it emerged that sources he provided to parliament in support of a niche theory linking algal blooms to water desalination plants had been generated by AI.
• Independent Mount Gambier MP Troy Bell resigned from parliament a fortnight ago after losing an appeal against his conviction on 20 counts of stealing from a not-for-profit he was running during his former career as a teacher. Speaker Leon Bignell announced that no by-election would be held to replace him, leaving the seat vacant through to an election fixed for March 21. The Liberal candidate for the seat is Lamorna Alexander, governance and compliance manager with a community services not-for-profit. Fred Smith of The SE Voice reported last month that Alexander was preselected ahead of fertility specialist Lucy Lines.
• The Liberal candidate for the South East seat of Mackillop is Rebekah Rosser, a public relations consultant and former ministerial adviser, who was preselected last month ahead of Matt Neumann, a Bordertown pastor, and Lachie Haynes, an agricultural sales representative and former electorate officer to federal Barker MP Tony Pasin.
• Liberal MP Matt Cowdrey announced in June that he would not seek re-election in his western Adelaide seat of Colton, citing a desire to “move on from partisan politics”. Cowdrey did well to hold his seat by a 4.8% margin in 2022 in the face of a 1.4% swing, which the redistribution has increased to 5.0%. The new Liberal candidate is Bec Sutton, a project manager at SA Health.
• The Advertiser reported in August that former Liberal leader David Speirs, who quit parliament last year amid drug charges for which he was convicted in April, is expected by both parties to run as an independent in his former seat of Black on a campaign built around the algal bloom crisis. The by-election held after Speirs’ departure was won for Labor by Alex Dighton with a 12.6% swing.
• Former One Nation MLC Sarah Game will seek re-election under her new Fair Go for Australians party, and has enlisted as a running mate Adelaide councillor Henry Davis, who quit the Liberal Party in April complaining of a “disjointed party at war with itself”. (UPDATE: Rohan in comments notes that “Sarah Game MLC is not up for re-election this time – so presumably her ‘running mate’ Henry Davis will lead her party’s ticket in 2026.”)
Can we please keep this thread for discussion of South Australian state politics. The open thread for general discussion is here.
Interesting to see the Liberals announce they’ll run on 50 cent public transport fares
A popular move from an unpopular party, could win them a few votes though
Libs need to run hard on the state debt blowout and the endless health stuff ups.
Also all gloss no substance another attack avenue.
Also the failing conservation, public sector union job for life state monopoly and its incompetence.
Q: A popular move from an unpopular party, could win them a few votes though
Yes, I think this will be their first ‘cut through’ moment in 4 years. Some fares are ridiculous (a one stop train ride, ticket purchased on train $6.00)…while many SAs have free travel at all times.
Q: Libs need to run hard on the state debt blowout
The SA budget is in surplus this year, paying down debt, despite huge capital works.
Sarah Game MLC is not up for re-election this time – so presumably her ‘running mate’ Henry Davis will lead her party’s ticket in 2026.
I find it symbolic of the state the SA Liberals are in that in the week some surprise resignations might have allowed them to challenge the Malinauskas government, they are still pre-occupied with factional battles over pre-selection, and whether to recycle defeated past candidates.
“Interesting to see the Liberals announce they’ll run on 50 cent public transport fares”
This was a popular policy in Qld and could potentially help encourage people to come back into the CBD more often, which would be good for the city economy.
However I have two reservations:
– in reality, the Marshall government cut PT funding when it was last in office.
– SA has not developed public transport networks comparable with other mainland State capitals. It would make more sense to fund expansions of the system, like trains to Roseworthy and Concordia, or trams to the eastern and western suburbs. Most people’s only option is infrequent and unreliable buses.
Cutting the wage bill of labors union mates good Libs do not sell out the public interest to the public sector unions.
Hard Being Green @ 7:03 am
Interesting to see the Liberals announce they’ll run on 50 cent public transport fares
A popular move from an unpopular party, could win them a few votes though
The current fare structure needs an overhaul, no doubt, but cheap fares are not much use if public transport services are unattractive or non-existent. There might be a minimal gain in patronage but a significant reduction in the revenue which would help pay for improvements.
See the list: 104 ex-politicians in SA receive generous lifetime pensions
More than 100 former South Australian MPs continue receiving six figure lifetime pensions under a scheme closed decades ago. See the list.
Leon Georgiou
Leon Georgiou
@TiserLG
2 min read
September 22, 2025 – 5:00AM
Rob Lucas, Isobel Redmond and Michael Atkinson are just three of the 100 former politicians who receive a lifetime pension.
Rob Lucas, Isobel Redmond and Michael Atkinson are just three of the 100 former politicians who receive a lifetime pension.
While millions of South Australians face an uncertain retirement with modest superannuation balances amid a cost of living crisis, a select group of former politicians are enjoying a comfortable post-politics life, thanks to one of the nation’s most generous retirement schemes.
https://www-adelaidenow-com-au.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/see-the-list-104-expoliticians-in-sa-receive-generous-lifetime-pensions/news-story/c2417879c59373f6a036dae3d1ebacda?amp=&_gsa=1&_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQGsAEggAID#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=17585061380794&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&share=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.adelaidenow.com.au%2Fnews%2Fsouth-australia%2Fsee-the-list-104-expoliticians-in-sa-receive-generous-lifetime-pensions%2Fnews-story%2Fc2417879c59373f6a036dae3d1ebacda
The algae improving would help Labor. Not that they need it.
If your two main election promises, fixing ramping and building a hydrogen industry, are in tatters and you are still crushing the opposition, you don’t have much to worry about.
The Libs need to lose and change to the wonderful Ashton Hurn.
Key update:
Definitely True 10
Probably True 3
Probably False 1
Definitely False 0
7 false keys needed for opposition 2PP win.
If it was today:
Definitely True 12
Probably True 1
Probably False 1
Definitely False 0
The worst job in Australia is a state opposition leader. Nobody knows who you are and, unless public opinion has turned against the state government, you’re effectively banging your head against the wall, so I do genuinely sympathise a little with the Opposition.
That said, there’s a difference between waiting for your time and trying to speed up the process of turning public opinion against the government. The Liberals have been sleepwalking this whole term and you would barely know they’re there. They should be making noise about the myriad of issues the government could be vulnerable on, instead of relying on the Advertiser (whose readership is nowhere near as strong as it was even back in the 2010s) to do it for them. Say what you will about last time they were in opposition, at least they were visible (at least post-2010.)
That should be their focus, not internal ideological changes or leaning more into idiotic culture war shit, nor waiting for a magical leader who might woo people over by being young and pretty. Do the work. It takes time but it’s worth it. Instead of waiting twelve, sixteen or possibly twenty years (not locking any of those in as a prediction btw) for an “it’s time” factor to carry you over the line.
Wat
They’re basically lazy from what I can tell.
That offer of 50 cent public transport fares is like Dutton’s fuel discount. It won’t sway the voters. It’s a stunt policy. At least Queensland Labor were smart enough to put it in place when they were in government. They lost anyway. From Opposition it’s a vote buying stunt that proves you don’t have substantive policies and the electorate will see it that way. It’s also cover for the more extremist positions your party probably has, such as the SA Liberals appear to hold with the Ultra Conservative takeover Antics.
Can someone please provide a summary or link to the Australian version of the keys that people are referring to? (Not that it helped much in the US last time!)
shiftalingsays:
Tuesday, September 23, 2025 at 10:25 am
“Can someone please provide a summary or link to the Australian version of the keys that people are referring to? (Not that it helped much in the US last time!)”
Key 1: Midterm Gains
Key 2: No close primary contest
Key 3: Incumbent Seeking Re-election
Key 4: No major third party
Key 5: The economy is not in resession/people don’t feel like they are in a resession
Key 6: Real per capita gdp growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms
Key 7: Major Policy Change
Key 8: No major, violent, widespread social unrest
Key 9: No major scandal recognised by both sides of politics
Key 10: No foreign or military failure
Key 11: Major foreign or military success, like winning a war
Key 12: The incumbent party leader is appealing to moderate voters of the challenging party
Key 13: The leader of the challenging party is not appealing to moderate voters of the Incumbent party.
Key 14: True if there’s something major triggering a ‘Rally around the flag effect’
7 false keys needed for opposition 2PP victory.
Also, my keys work with USA 2024. (Lichtman got 2 keys wrong; he didn’t follow his own definition for key 11, and more than 60% of Americans felt like they were in a recession, which I reckon would flip key 5 false)
Substantial number of those keys irrelevant for Australia at the state level, keys 1-5, 10, 11, 14
Thanks Arange
Dougsays:
Tuesday, September 23, 2025 at 1:29 pm
“Substantial number of those keys irrelevant for Australia at the state level, keys 1-5, 10, 11, 14”
I’m not sure how you don’t think the economy is a driving factor of voting intention.
Another way of looking at it would be with a nation-wide large swing to the incumbent gov, that swing would largely be driven by the keys, and those same keys would therefore be the same (with some regional variation), which would allow those swings to happen.
I’m not sure what to substitute the military-related keys for rn. Maybe as Nadia88 suggested, crime.
Just replace ‘midterms’ with how the incumbent gov is doing in the polls at the exact mid-point of the term.
I’m not sure how key 3 is inapplicable.
Just replace ‘no close primary contest’ with ‘no close leadership spill’
With key 4, just swap the ‘5% rule’ with a ‘20% rule’
With key 14, my answer is pretty much the same as the economy;
Just look at today where it’s true virtually everywhere thanks to Trump, and it’s pushing up incumbents. See the parallels with 2017-21?
shiftalingsays:
Tuesday, September 23, 2025 at 1:35 pm
“Thanks Arange”
You’re welcome (always ready to defend/explain the keys when I’m not busy or being spammed)
Edit for a part of my post at 1:54 PM:
I’m not sure how you don’t think the economy is a driving factor of voting intention.
Another way of looking at it would be with a nation-wide large swing to the incumbent gov, that swing would largely be driven by the keys, and those same keys would therefore be the same (with some regional variation) in each part of that country, which would allow those swings to happen.
Hey Arange. I’ve been a bit of a silent observer here for a little while. I’ve attached some adjustments you could make to the wording of the keys in the Australian context, so as to try to avoid people getting hung up on the wording rather than understanding the overall point. By no means is this imperative. You can do whatever you want.
Key 1: Polls (either in general or at this point) are showing the government winning the TPP
Key 2: No leadership threats
Key 3: Leader is the same as the last election
Key 4: No third party is threatening government seats
Key 5: The economy is not in recession/people don’t feel like they are in a recession
Key 6: Real per capita gdp growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms
Key 7: Major Policy Change
Key 8: No major, violent, widespread social unrest
Key 9: No major scandal recognised by both sides of politics
Key 10: No security failure (I think both crime at the state level and foreign/military policy under the umbrella of security works)
Key 11: Major security success, like winning a war (or reducing crime rates)
Key 12: The incumbent party leader is appealing to moderate voters of the challenging party
Key 13: The leader of the challenging party is not appealing to moderate voters of the Incumbent party.
Key 14: “Rally ‘round the flag” effect is in play
Arange, I’m not having a go at you at all, but I think you should adapt your keys to the Australian situation completely. Pay tribute to the original of course but you’ve clearly done enough work on it.
Arange’s Ozzy keys – oi oi oi!
Bouldersays:
Tuesday, September 23, 2025 at 3:06 pm
“Hey Arange. I’ve been a bit of a silent observer here for a little while. I’ve attached some adjustments you could make to the wording of the keys in the Australian context, so as to try to avoid people getting hung up on the wording rather than understanding the overall point. By no means is this imperative. You can do whatever you want.”
Thanks. I appreciate it. I really do.
I’m not too sure how much of it (if any) I’ll actually use, but it’s nice to look at someone else’s take when it’s actually constructive criticism.
MABWMsays:
Tuesday, September 23, 2025 at 8:46 pm
“I think you should adapt your keys to the Australian situation completely. Pay tribute to the original of course but you’ve clearly done enough work on it.”
They kinda already are, but I’ll keep it in mind
I think that Aussie adaptation is pretty damn solid actually, though in general with these kind of systems I’m not a fan at all of something as definitive a prediction as “7 false keys needed for an opposition TTP victory”, and far prefer something along the lines of “the more keys that are false, the more likely the opposition is to win government and/or win the TPP vote.”
The keys are quite interesting.
Key 4: I reckon probably leave it at a less subjective test. Perhaps something along the lines of “No third party is consistently polling 15% or greater. The test for “consistently” possibly being the 3rd party has hit 15% or greater on 3 different polls in the past month. If they have, then that would tip Key 4 into False.
Key 8: Leave as is as it can be easily transposed between Fed & State issues. eg: During 2021/22 in Vic there were a series of large anti lockdown demos. As the protest was directed against the Vic State gov’t, that may have tipped that key False.
If the current “March for Australia” rallies continue to persist during this term (2025-2028) and get more widespread and voluble, then I’d say that key would tip false, but against the Federal gov’t. Reason: The main issue of the protests is immigration which is clearly a Fed (not state) issue.
Key 11: Per state correlation, yes crime would need to be transposed. The test is difficult though as the media like to highlight every crime creating an impression of anarchy. Perhaps a straightfwd test would be a comparison of 12 monthly crime stats in the 2 preceeding years leading up to the gen election.
So crime rates dropping down year on year = key would flip True
& crime rates going up year on year (in the election leadup) = Key would flip False
Anyway, your system Arange. Many thanks once again. Look fwd to a bit of analysis leading up to the next S.A. & Vic elections.
Back on Key 11, sorry to waffle around.
Taking the upcoming S.A. election to be held in March 2027.
I don’t know when S.A. Police publish their crime stats, but if it’s year on year, I’d compare the crime figures for the year ending 31-12-2025, with 31-12-2024.
If they’re bad they’ll probably get released in January, about 5.58pm on Australia Day eve.
But regardless, if the stats show an increase in crime, then false.
If they show a decrease (year on year), then true.
Hope this makes sense.
It is a bit rich that the people of Mount Gambier are going to be left unrepresented for 6 months ( 1/8 of the parliamentary term). A by election could have been called and be over before the November sittings. Not sure if there are any sitting days next year. What justification is there. If it had been 3 year terms it would have been 1/6 of the term.
Apparently there is no specific requirement for the issue of writs for a by-election in S.A., within a certain prescribed time.
I figure the Speaker has taken into account the proximity to the end of the term.
I’m sure though if there had been a petition from either Labor or the Greens, then they may have had one.
Doesn’t benefit Labor forcing the locals to an unecessary by-election, and given the suspected polling in S.A., I doubt the Libs want one either.
Asha and nadia88
Thanks. Will keep in mind.
By elections are not there for the convenience of political parties – they are about representation. MPs do more than sit in parliament – they advocate for their communities outside parliament. What are Mount Gambier meant to do for six months? If there had been no parliamentary sitting time then it would have been quite understandable. Would they have done the same thing if the vacancy occurred in March and the general election was scheduled in September?