Miscellany: BludgerTrack, Newspoll aggregates, One Nation Senate vacancy (open thread)

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate returns, as does Newspoll’s semi-regular demographic and geographic aggregation.

A little under five months after the federal election, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate has made its return, presently aggregating 14 poll results on voting intention and eight for leadership ratings. Going back as far as mid-June, it records a stable picture on two-party preferred, with Labor holding a consistent lead of around 57.5-42.5, but is distinctive on the primary vote in picking up a surge to One Nation, who are at level pegging with the Greens, at the expense of the Coalition. The series now makes use of the data from Roy Morgan, which was excluded in the previous term for reasons including its excessive frequency relative to other pollsters. This hasn’t been an issue post-election, having moved to roughly monthly reporting (a fresh result should be along later today), and it’s also relevant that it performed rather well at the election by leaning more strongly to Labor than its rivals.

BludgerTrack does not currently have enough data to work with to produce state breakdowns, but it gets one step closer today with The Australian publishing the first Newspoll geographic and demographic breakdown since the election, combining 3811 responses from three polls going back to mid-July. The full results on voting intention can be found under the “Poll Data” tab in the BludgerTrack display. At state level, it records two-party results of 60-40 to Labor in New South Wales (a swing to Labor of around 4.5% since the election), 58-42 in Victoria (around 1.5%), 51-49 in Queensland (ditto), 54-46 in Western Australia (a swing of around 2% to the Coalition) and 55-45 in South Australia (around 4% to the Coalition, bearing in mind that by this point the sample size is down to 283). There is no gender gap on two-party preferred, with Labor leading 57-43 among men and women, but Anthony Albanese has a narrower advantage over Sussan Ley on preferred prime minister among women (49-31) than men (54-31).

One further point to be noted is that New South Wales has a new Senator in Sean Bell, who fills the One Nation vacancy arising from the retirement of Warwick Stacey, who was elected in May, on grounds of ill health. A former adviser to Pauline Hanson, Bell was announced by the party as Stacey’s designated successor one day before a joint standing of state parliament convened to rubber-stamp its choice last week. Bell in fact lives in Queensland, but a party spokesperson told Max Maddison of the Sydney Morning Herald he was “in the process” of moving to the state he now represents.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,430 thoughts on “Miscellany: BludgerTrack, Newspoll aggregates, One Nation Senate vacancy (open thread)”

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  1. Hastie in the name. Kind of reminds me of Dean Winter (previous Tas Lab LOTO), way too hasty in pulling the trigger in a motion of no confidence, ended up being blamed for the subsequent election, lost the Labor leadership.

    Hastie would have gotten his chance after the next election in 2028. And that chance would have been a damn sight better than what he is going to end up with. He’ll burn his own opportunity at becoming PM with this ill thought through move.

  2. nath says:
    Thursday, September 25, 2025 at 9:29 pm
    Anyway I wonder if Snoop Dogg is gonna do Gin and Juice on Saturday
    ==========
    Anyway, onto the footy. Forget about Snoop Dogg.

    My picks:

    * Fri Melb to def Cronulla
    * Sat Fitzroy to def Geelong
    * Sun Penrith to def Brisbane

    No polls over the weekend, unless YouGov decides to drop one.

  3. Mostly Interested @ #1401 Thursday, September 25th, 2025 – 9:41 pm

    Hastie in the name. Kind of reminds me of Dean Winter (previous Tas Lab LOTO), way too hasty in pulling the trigger in a motion of no confidence, ended up being blamed for the subsequent election, lost the Labor leadership.

    Hastie would have gotten his chance after the next election in 2028. And that chance would have been a damn sight better than what he is going to end up with. He’ll burn his own opportunity at becoming PM with this ill thought through move.

    Yeah, I agree with that. And a lot of it is probably due to Big Gina getting too impatient to establish a Trumpist party in control of Australia.

  4. Andrew Hastie reminds me of that other handsome WA Liberal who thought his destiny was to be Prime Minister, Christian Porter. Not in deed but in attitude.

  5. nadia88,
    Coaches are figuring out Penrith. If you can stop them moving the ball around quickly then you kill their momentum. The players opposite just have to be thinking quick enough to figure out which way the ball is going to go.

  6. Hastie saw another female candidate a local state WA liberal leader earlier this year miles behind and ended up further behind after the WA state poll.SHE WAS LABOR LITE.

    He will go for leadership before the next election.

  7. ”
    Kirsdarkesays:
    Thursday, September 25, 2025 at 8:30 pm
    Holdenhillbilly @ #1362 Thursday, September 25th, 2025 – 8:12 pm

    Congressional lawmakers and their aides are bracing for a shutdown that appears inevitable after President Trump canceled a meeting planned for Thursday with Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer (N.Y.) and House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries (N.Y.).
    Senate Democrats have said they cannot vote for any House-passed government funding bill if GOP leaders refuse to sit down and talk with them, but Republicans say there’s nothing to negotiate, framing next week’s vote on a “clean” continuing resolution to keep the government open as a take-it-or-leave-it proposition.
    “I think there’s a 99 percent chance that there’s a shutdown. There just doesn’t seem to be any endgame for either party to get out of a shutdown,” said Brian Darling, a GOP strategist and former Senate aide. “Republicans want to show that they want to get their priorities funded and I think the Democrats need to dig in and show that they can fight. I think both parties have an incentive from their base to shut their government down, it’s just a matter of how long,” he said.
    Trump has made it clear he’s not ready to offer any concessions to Schumer and Jeffries. He’s also prepared to make the shutdown as painful as possible for Democrats by prioritizing funding for Republican requests and shifting money from Democratic-leaning states to GOP strongholds.
    https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5520645-trump-democrats-funding-showdown/

    I’m making a prediction that there won’t be a shutdown. Hakeem Jeffries and Chuck Schumer have pool noodles instead of spines and they’ll do their usual whimpering before voting for whatever shit sandwich the Republicans serve to them.
    ”

    Republicans are counting on it.

  8. Pied Piper
    The Liberal Party were never winning the next election, Hastie has made it worse for his party and his own career. His “strangers in their own home” might excite PHON voters, it won’t help win marginal seats in suburban Australia.

  9. nadia88says:
    Thursday, September 25, 2025 at 9:45 pm
    nath says:
    Thursday, September 25, 2025 at 9:29 pm
    Anyway I wonder if Snoop Dogg is gonna do Gin and Juice on Saturday
    ==========
    Anyway, onto the footy. Forget about Snoop Dogg.
    _______________________
    Kingpin kicking back while his workers slang his rocks
    Coming up like a fat rat
    Big money, big cars, big bodyguards on his back
    So it’s difficult to get him
    (But I got the hook up with somebody
    Who knows how to get in contact with him)
    Hit him like this and like that
    Let ’em know that I’m looking for a big fat dope sack

  10. pied pipersays:
    Thursday, September 25, 2025 at 9:57 pm
    “SHE WAS LABOR LITE.”

    Just to make sure we don’t misinterpret you, how do you define “LABOR LITE”

  11. nath says:
    Thursday, September 25, 2025 at 10:04 pm
    nadia88 says:
    Thursday, September 25, 2025 at 9:45 pm
    nath says:
    Thursday, September 25, 2025 at 9:29 pm
    Anyway I wonder if Snoop Dogg is gonna do Gin and Juice on Saturday
    ==========
    Anyway, onto the footy. Forget about Snoop Dogg.
    _______________________
    Kingpin kicking back while his workers slang his rocks
    Coming up like a fat rat
    Big money, big cars, big bodyguards on his back
    So it’s difficult to get him
    (But I got the hook up with somebody
    Who knows how to get in contact with him)
    Hit him like this and like that
    Let ’em know that I’m looking for a big fat dope sack
    ===========
    Right nath. Awesome.
    Is that before or after Welcome to Country?
    Are you doing footy tips. Yes or no?

  12. I don’t know what Welcome to Country has got to do with it but I’m sure Uncle Colin will be with the swiftness, and get it right with the quickness, and handle his business yo.

  13. C@tmomma says:
    Thursday, September 25, 2025 at 9:55 pm
    nadia88,
    Coaches are figuring out Penrith. If you can stop them moving the ball around quickly then you kill their momentum. The players opposite just have to be thinking quick enough to figure out which way the ball is going to go.
    =======
    C@t, I think Penrith will be OK on Sunday. More finals experience, plus the 2023 GF nightmare will play on Brisbane’s mind. Also Leota is in the team. He’s catching the ball atm like he’s catching a baby.
    Dylan Edwards has been playing poorly this past month, but Coach Cleary says he’s in, which means he’s in. Me, personally, I would’ve dropped Edwards for Eisenhuth.
    Regardless, I think the Panthers will win on Sunday.

  14. Tisza in Hungary is centre-right – in Germany they would join Merz’s CDU. A Tisza win under Magyar, though, would be a win for Europe, but not necessarily for Ukraine:

    Tisza supports the Fidesz government’s position against sending weapons or troops to support Ukraine following Russia’s invasion. The party also is opposed to Ukraine’s accelerated EU accession. Orbán has attempted to paint the party as pro-Ukraine, including accusations from the government that Ukraine was using Magyar to undermine them; however, no evidence has been provided to back such claims up.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tisza_Party#:~:text=Tisza%20supports%20the%20Fidesz%20government's,to%20Ukraine's%20accelerated%20EU%20accession.

    I suppose that Hungary under Peter Magyar might be less stubbornly obstructionist towards EU and NATO help for Ukraine.

  15. nath says:
    Thursday, September 25, 2025 at 10:18 pm
    I don’t know what Welcome to Country has got to do with it but I’m sure Uncle Colin will be with the swiftness, and get it right with the quickness, and handle his business yo.
    =============
    Nath – Footy tips, now!

    Centre – if you’re scrolling through tonight/tomorrow, footy tips pls. I know you picked Brisbane as the GF winner waaaaaaaaaayyyyyyy back in Feb. Business end of the season. Your tips for this weekend pls

  16. nadia88says:

    Nath – Footy tips, now!
    ___________________
    Well I don’t pay any attention to that rubbish they play up north, but I hope Brisbane can get up. However Geelong look too strong.

  18. nathsays:
    Thursday, September 25, 2025 at 10:26 pm
    nadia88says:

    Nath – Footy tips, now!
    ___________________
    Well I don’t pay any attention to that rubbish they play up north, but I hope Brisbane can get up. However Geelong look too strong.
    ================================================

    That’s what happens when your not constrained by a salary cap like every body else. Adam Treloar would be still playing for Collingwood if Hard Yakka was allowed to pay his wage outside the salary cap. Only “Cotton On” is allowed to do that though. While for the soft cap only Morris Finance can pay coaches outside the cap. It’s shocking what they allow “S.Hocking” to get away with.

  19. newy boy,

    Tisza winning would be a win for Ukraine, in comparison to Fidesz. Tisza are split on support for Ukraine (their voters are marginally favourable), but they would likely not be obstructionist in power.

    – – –

    In general they are “conservative” in the sense of supporting very low personal income tax, deregulation and removal of barriers for small business. But they also support a number of things we would consider “progressive” – improvements to social services, reduction/removal of VAT (GST) from fresh food and medicine, redirecting health care funds from the private to the public sector, reforms to parliament (voting, transparency, salaries etc), devolution of things that we handle at state level.

    A bit of a hodge-podge, partly because of the influence of ex-Fidesz-turned-anti-Fidesz members. A centre-right party, but probably more centre than right (noting that Hungary’s Overton window is well to the right of most of Europe, that makes them a “left-wing” option). Here, they would straddle Labor’s right wing and the old-school Liberal Wets (if there are any left).

  21. Whew, big Nine-Fairfax article on Andrew Hastie. Unfortunately paywalled, but here’s what I got from it.

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/mr-conviction-what-s-behind-andrew-hastie-s-new-crusade-20250924-p5mxhu.html

    As Hastie outlines a new direction for the Liberals, he’s activating a cheer squad among elements of the party’s right, who are pushing his leadership potential. Other colleagues are suspicious of his strategy. Hastie is not cowed by their criticism; he’s called Liberal MPs who background against him “nameless cowards” and “muppets”. His actions have fuelled speculation of a leadership challenge, and Hastie is doing little to douse that.

    But those close to him say his mission is much broader. His endgame is a re-booted Liberal Party that stands for family, community and nation, rather than worshipping at the altar of globalisation. If that means splintering the party or losing his seat, so be it.

    Another moderate MP said Hastie’s positions were so divorced from Liberal orthodoxy that they would eventually be held against him. The MP would not fight Hastie in public because, like his ally Price, he was “flaming out” on his own.

    Hastie might not mind. “If I go out with the tide in 2½ years, that’s great; I’ll get a lot more time with my kids back,” he said last week.

    But in the meantime, he’s preparing for battle. In response to a comment left on one of his social media posts about Charlie Kirk, which asked about the right-wing speaker’s contentious views on race and sexuality, Hastie spoke in life-and-death terms about what he sees as a hinge point in history.

    “The next leg of the journey won’t be for the faint-hearted mate,” he wrote.

  22. Re π’d Piper @9:57 ”

    Hastie

    will go for leadership before the next election”

    I think that you are right. Of course he will go on to lose. He has very little appeal beyond the Coalition’s very right-wing base. For a start, he won’t be winning back the Teal seats, nor most other metropolitan seats.

  25. For democratcs and anti-fascists, it should be pleasing that Hastie intends to fight politically this term. As long as he thinks the right policy presentation can sway Australian voters, he is promoting a democratic attitude. But it’s much harder to understand which voters he thinks will switch to him. Australian politics just isn’t the same as in the US and Europe: there isn’t some group of disaffected voters who you can activate for, in many cases, the first time. This is probably partly why the Australian right has been so successful in the last few decades and why Australia looks more conservative. And he can’t even get voters to switch within the right — unless he wants to appeal to teal seats — because of preferential voting. It just seems so pointless. But maybe it is a time for try anything and see what sticks, because there’s no way you’d expect anything to work.

  26. Blood and soil reactionary far-right Trumpist garbage on behalf of Gina along with delusional, cult indoctrination fairy-tale nonsense.

    “We unlock our innate God-given drive to design and build complex things.”
    Imagine god sitting back (6000 years ago according to Hastie I’m sure) and thinking “yeah, I’ll make a group of people called Australians, who won’t exist for 5800 years, and make them good at designing cars, which is something I won’t allow humans to invent for 5900 years.

  30. If you only ever read one article on Australia’s climate reduction targets, you should make it this one -it’s a very simple and concise explanation of how weak those targets really are …

    https://johnmenadue.com/post/2025/09/the-world-isnt-even-trying-to-phase-out-fossil-fuels/

    From an Australian perspective, LULUCF has been very helpful to successive federal governments in claiming that Australia is doing well in meeting emissions reduction targets. Australia chose 2005 as its baseline year for reporting under the Paris Agreement. Conveniently for subsequent reporting (and meeting targets!), 2005 was a peak year for deforestation emissions. Consequently, all subsequent emissions reporting has had a “built-in” reduction that now is in excess of 20% of total emissions reductions.

    The other problem that adds to the difficulty in accurately accounting for actual fossil fuel usage is that emissions that have been offset are classed as emissions reductions, even though they are not actual reductions; the fuel is still being used, and emissions are still entering the atmosphere. Climate Action Tracker is a scientific research initiative that tracks government climate action globally. Its latest report for Australia states that “currently less than a third of the reductions achieved by companies covered by the Safeguard Mechanism were for real emissions reductions and two-thirds due to the use of offsets”. The Safeguard Mechanism is Australia’s main policy instrument for reducing industrial emissions.

    When LULUCF reductions are taken into account, together with the extensive use of offsetting, the government’s 2035 emissions reduction target of 62%-70% is closer to 32%-40% when related to actual fossil fuel emissions reductions. This is a very weak target for the key requirement to phase out fossil fuels.

    The article concludes …

    The Albanese Government likes to talk about its vision for Australia to become a renewable energy superpower. The government needs to understand that if Australia and many other countries continue to support fossil fuels, there won’t be any renewable energy superpowers. The outcome will instead be that the world will be fully occupied dealing with the devastation resulting from unmitigated climate change.

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