The Herald Sun reports a RedBridge Group poll of state voting intention in Victoria has Labor leading 52-48 on two-party preferred, out from 51.5-48.5 at the last such poll in July, from primary votes of Labor 32%, Coalition 37% and Greens 13% – in each case down a point on last time. The poll was conducted September 3 to 11 from a sample of 2005 – Kos Samaras of RedBridge Group relates further breakdowns via X.
Further Victorian electoral news:
• The Age reports Labor sources saying it is “increasingly likely” the government will move to abolish group voting tickets for the Legislative Council early next year, the state being the last holdout for a system that once prevailed in the Senate and all state upper houses. Most recently, a new system for the Western Australian Legislative Council took effect at the election in March which also abolished the previously existing system of six six-member regions, similar to Victoria’s system of eight five-member regions. The election of the entire chamber at large meant a low quota for election that allowed Legalise Cannabis and Animal Justice to win seats: tellingly, the Victorian branches of these parties “support the abolition of group voting tickets only if accompanied by a bigger reform like replacing the eight regions with a single statewide electorate”.
• Former Liberal leader Michael O’Brien announced a fortnight ago that he will retire at the next election, creating a vacancy in his historically safe seat of Malvern. Rachel Eddie of The Age reports those named as possible successors include Jacquie Blackwell, chair of the state party’s women’s council, and an ally of the locally influential Josh Frydenberg; Amelia Hamer, the stock market analyst who ran unsuccessfully against Monique Ryan in Kooyong at the May federal election; Holly Byrne, a local business owner; Josh Fast, a “former corporate lawyer who now runs an education business” and Marcus Pearl, a former Port Phillip councillor.
• Shannon Deery of the Herald Sun reports the parliament’s longest serving current member, former Treasurer Kim Wells, has told Liberal colleagues he will retire at the next election, creating a preselection vacancy in his outer eastern Melbourne seat of Rowville. Another recently announced Liberal retiree is Croydon MP David Hodgett.
• The Australian reports Western Victoria region MLC Gayle Tierney has rejected suggestions she will retire at the next election, an eventuality that some in the party were pointing to as a potential lifeline for Dylan Wight should he face a preselection challenge in Tarneit. That possibility was in turn raised when the party’s national executive lifted a seven-year ban on Indian community powerbroker Jasvinder Sidhu from contesting preselections, imposed in 2020 after a party investigation alleged he had “engaged in branch-stacking and stoked ethnic resentment”. All concerned are members of the Socialist Left.
Boer War and Ghost of Whitlam – you both are completely clueless about world events. You both appear to live in some ignorant university closet bereft of any knowledge of world events and trends economically, geopolitically, and militarily outside that safe little closet. Go on take a chance and leave the closet. What you see might scare you and make you sad but that’s life. Toughen up.
The diff between PP and Rob is that at least PP is brief.
Why do men need to ‘toughen up’? I prefer men to be sensitive, ethical and considerate. Btw, it’s not ‘life’ to be a hard arse. Only men with inadequacy complexes are that way.
Rob
The Liberals preference Labor ahead of ONP in Kooyong.
A post-split Liberal Party would not be left wing, the Greens are left wing liberals, and a post-split Liberal Party wouldn’t be expected to win over hard core Green voters in Balmain and Brunswick.
A Liberal Party free of Hastie, Antic, Price and SAD could absorbed the Teals and other independents and picking up Labor and Green preferences wouldn’t be wiped out. Let’s pretend the split happens, a new Liberal Party would win 6 Teal seats, Indi, Mayo, maybe Calare and Clark, and hold existing seats – Goldstein, Flinders and Berowra, and that’s before looking at right lending Labor seats and other Coalition seats that would go Liberal ahead of Conservative.
These are more bogus polls per usual, Labor is not “ahead” and I am looking forward to proving all those wrong who think Labor will win a 4th term.
You are ignoring the fundamental issue people are angry at the govenrment over, which is inaction on youth crime including the brutal murder of 2 boys in Melbournes west recently.
Allan cannot win, replace her with Carroll to give them a fighting chance.
Labor will not win Prahran either. Liberals will increase their vote there.
So we have a full on phon fanboy?
I get that pp is just trolling but this one seems to be serious and goes for personal insults too.
And yet we are talking about the Victorian state election.
Literally unless phon stand in every seat, and that isn’t certain, they will struggle against alp, lnp and greens who will contest every seat.
And phon have a funny habit of splintering in parliament within months of being elected, much like lambie.
Yet our wannabee nsdap is somehow gonna sturm them communists out of spring st.
Again, the Chinese and Indian potential deportees, the doctors wives and so on aren’t voting fash.
Keep slaying those strawmen Rob. You put em up, you knock em down!
Daniel Tsays:
Saturday, September 20, 2025 at 6:31 pm
“These are more bogus polls per usual, Labor is not “ahead” and I am looking forward to proving all those wrong who think Labor will win a 4th term.”
With all due respect, didn’t you also say the incumbent gov was behind in Tasmania?
The Liberals and the media have gone hard on the crime narrative for the last 3 state elections and in Victoria at Federal level too. It has clearly not worked. Why is it going to start working now? The average punter Does Not Care about dodgy tobacco shops being burned down. Crime rate did go up last year but is still lower than it was in 2016. Whatever effect wall to wall tabloid media hype of the issue has is long since baked into the numbers.
As for the meta issue of right-wing populism, the driving issue in Europe is border control. The freedom of movement within the EU and porous land borders in much of the EU has created a feeling in the EU and former EU member England of being swamped by both legal and illegal immigration.
By contrast, in Australia the numbers of illegal immigrants we received in Australia were laughable by EU standards even at the height of boat arrivals, and are now nothing. Australians are confident that our borders are controlled. But this is why calls by the Greens etc to dismantle the current border protection policies, however well meaning, can’t be answered and are actually one of the most stupid and dangerous Greens positions. The Coalition themselves created one of the strongest bullwarks Australian society has against the far right’s fearmongering and this would be a horrific time in history to give it away.
We still have the issue of legal immigration numbers to deal with; but again there’s not a genuine problem and I am confident the government can fight back about the negative perceptions which are mostly fuelled by social media bullshit and held by a minority of misled souls rather than being as widespread and perhaps a bit more justified as they are in the EU.
The Coalition has already been smashed a couple of times for believing that imitating Trump and the populist right is the path to victory in Australia. That’s not about to suddenly flip as the ALP is alive to the issue. But by all means keep believing that mindlessly imitating overseas assholes is your path to power. And it is all about power – far right populists have no interest in improving anything for anybody but themselves, just scaring their way to personal aggrandisement, so don’t expect any respect or quarter from me if you advocate for that shit.
A saw an anti-Labor hitpiece video from ABC Landline featuring whining rural libnat Victorians crying about power lines.
Featuring a nice talking head spot from a “Kate Makin” who is described as being from the “Rural Councils Victoria” complaining about everything under the sun, roads, childcare, housing, workforce.
No mention that Ms Makin is either a Liberal Party member or pretending to be an independent while being married to Matt Makin, a Liberal Party factional heavyweight in the area. No mention that the roads she was crying about are her council responsibility, especially the potholed, broken local roads shown in the video.
The video also gave voice to anti-scientific, anti-windfarm, tin foil anti-electricity type nutters from the pro-LNP group the Victorian Farmers Federation.
Then gave the Government all of 60 seconds to respond to the crazies. And absolutely no-one from a group that welcomes renewables.
Then pops up a militant anti-renewable type Jason Barratt, who last year formed a protest group that was immediately exposed as being a pro-LNP astro-turf group when it came into existence with immediate promotion by Gerard Rennick. ABC also boosted their propaganda last year too. Barratt has previous stated that he (being a CFA member) and his group would refuse to fight fires around renewable projects. “He doesn’t want wind turbines or transmission lines near him”. Well great, no-one gets anything anywhere unless every single person agrees to it.
Disgraceful reporting. It was a pro-LNP propaganda piece from pro-LNP mouthpieces disguised as “angry farmers”.
The most honest thing in the entire piece was Barratt saying “we would like a change of Government” with a minute left. I’m sure he would have been happy to fight fires at Dutton’s proposed nuclear reactors.
And no mention of the FACT that Victorian Parliament seats like Ripon, Eureka, Macedon and Bendigo West, voted for Labor at the last election, so this small band of nutters doesn’t represent everyone in the area.
The Libs have to win a gazillion seats in Victoria. In order to do so they need to be about 55/45 ahead in the polls, before the spotlight is turned on their candidates and (non-)policies.
They are notionally trailing 52/48 as we speak. With a primary vote in the 20s!
Jacinta Allan is going to romp home – if these numbers hold up. To say otherwise is just wish casting.
Sure the anti-Dan angry men are getting angrier and louder, but they only have one vote each. One bra to burn, so to speak. Eventually they will realise Dan retired. Retired! At a time of his choosing. That makes him about the third leader in world history to voluntarily walk away. That’s gotta hurt.
Dan the covid failure deserted like a weak dog.
Massive debt he created and a crime basketcase.
China sellout along with his leftie high debt failure the current premier obviously a quota recipient.
And there’s the evidence. Boom Tish!
Piedpiper is PB’s low IQ quota recipient
The idea that right wing parties fall back on Laura Norder is a bit of a trope, but I think there is some truth to it in the circumstances.
If we look at each portfolio of specifically state government and what levers the government actually has, the 2 most important, health and education, are generally about money and throwing more at them. Seeing as the Libs claim they don’t want to do that, we move to transport, which is also about money but includes debates about transport modes and routes. Removing money from transport doesn’t help it improve so the only leverage Libs have is to stir discontent about routes and modes (hence anti-SRL)
But when we move to Laura, we can see the levers give them some degrees of freedom. Sure, money is needed for police and jails, but they also have the freedom to rail against “Sentences” including non-custodial ones, against the perpetrators at a psychic level – in other words, not actually promising anything, but just a shared desire with the right wing voters, for victimisation of perps and the groups they may come from, for example, the “African” youth with the machete rather than the white older man who commits fraud.
So Laura is a kind of playpen where right wingers can run wild with imagined and real policy prescriptions, knowing that while you probably could orchestrate an orgy of police hiring and jail building, mostly what you will be doing is press conferences where you single out bad people and say how bad they are. Which is cheaper than underground trains and you can deliver from day one.
The comments about crime above show out of touch some of you are. In our friendship group we have a had a friend have two guns (legal and locked in a safe) stolen. Cash and jewellery also stolen. Police were very open with the fact they are snowed under and only gave the case priority because there was a gun involved. One gun recovered and the 20 year old with it now out on bail – the cash probably paid the bail. Other friends are nervous about leaving their 22 year old daughter at home at night as their have been aggravated break in their town house complex. The levels of retail crime have become a major issue. The problem with Allan government is that they are so slow. They have not yet acted on tobacco but innocent people have been killed. On shop crime they promised action months ago but nothing has happened. The SDA is quite rightly pissed off. They don’t seem to actually care. As for African gangs, it was an issue – I was accosted by some young sudanese in my office building lift in 2018. A young colleague of Asian background was assaulted – trips to police and hospital. We had to leave in pairs at night for months – it was real and did happen. Law and order could be the big sleeper issue in 2026.
Crime comes and goes. I remember it far worse and I survived.
Daniel T says:
Saturday, September 20, 2025 at 6:31 pm
..
You are ignoring the fundamental issue people are angry at the govenrment over, which is inaction on youth crime including the brutal murder of 2 boys in Melbournes west recently.
..
The two boys were black, not members of black gangs but two young kids coming home from tennis practice.
The politics of hate is now all the Liberals have to offer. It has consequences.
And Blackburnpseph comes forward and shows the politics of hate is all the Liberals have to offer.
And pp offers incoherent nonsense.
Crime figures out this morning from the government and the highest since records began. Lots of areas have increases of 25% year on year. It is an issue that will not go away and it is an issue where the government has to take full responsibility. Will we get next years figures 6 – 7 weeks out from the election?
I can’t speak about general crime in Victoria as I have fortunately not been personally impacted but as for retail crime, I have an observation.
I worked for a major supermarket in outer Melbourne for 6 years until 2005 and there were more efforts to prevent shoplifting. The supermarket would even have a security guard on duty in the evening despite the area not having a higher than normal crime rate.
By the time a family member finished working for a department store in the same area in 2020 owned by the same parent company, there were almost no efforts to prevent shoplifting.
There’s no security guard at all in either store at any time and staff were told not to bother stopping shoplifters, which is understandable from a staff safety standpoint but also creates a vacuum in the absence of other measures. Potential shoplifters figured this out and naturally store theft went through the roof.
Can the state government be absolutely responsible for an increase in retail theft if retailers, especially larger, cashed up ones aren’t doing their part to prevent theft?
You have have nothing positive to offer, just scream Laura Norder. Those black muslim immigrant refugee trans machete gangs! (don’t say a word about violent neo-nazis). How could Dan Andrews let this happen!
GoW well said!
I keep hearing that the Libs think the magic African Gang member gonna get them over the line despite every previous election failing to demonstrate that.
I trust Labor won’t exploit the SovCit killing but if you want to look at dangerous violence (against police too) that is motivated by the Right, you don’t have to search far.