The Australian reports Newspoll has the Coalition with an unchanged two-party lead of 51-49, from primary votes of Labor 32% (up one), Coalition 39% (up one), Greens 12% (steady) and One Nation 7% (steady). Despite the stable voting intention results, Anthony Albanese records much improved personal ratings, up four on approval to 41% and down five on disapproval to 53%, and increases his lead as preferred prime minister from 45-40 to 47-38. Peter Dutton is down two on approval to 39% and up two on approval to 53%. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1255.
Everyone has been framing the upcoming budget as a danger for Labor, but it outs the spotlight straight onto Dutton with his LOTO reply, and there’ll be nothing in it. A disaster for Dutton.
I think the “bottom falling out of Dutton’s numbers” is a rather optimistic scenario for the posters from the Left.
I think “middle Australia” is far more aligned with Trump than most of the university-educated intellectual snob-set realise.
US Cartoons:
Scromo
The facts don’t support your wishcasting about Trump support in Australia – this from March 4.
The Australia Institute surveyed a nationally representative sample of 2,009 Australians about President Donald Trump, security and the US–Australian alliance.
The results show that:
• Three in 10 Australians (31%) think Donald Trump is the greatest threat to world peace, more than chose Vladimir Putin (27%) or Xi Jinping (27%).
• Most women (56%) feel less secure in Australia since the election of Donald Trump; only 13% of women feel more secure.
• More Australians prefer a more independent foreign policy than prefer a closer alliance with the United States (44% v 35%).
• Half of Australians (48%) are not at all confident that Donald Trump would defend Australia’s interests if Australia were threatened, compared to only 16% who are very confident that he would do so.
• Half of Australians (51%) think Donald Trump’s election is a bad thing for the world, twice as many as think it is a good thing (25%).
https://australiainstitute.org.au/report/polling-president-trump-security-and-the-us-australian-alliance/
C@tmommasays:
Monday, March 10, 2025 at 7:51 am
_____________________
No dramas C@t.
Reading all about Collingwood’s loss will keep me occupied for a while. A nice sleep in for Victorians due to Labour day.
C@t
Hope your family situation settles down
Shout out to those up north. Take care.
Meanwhile another hot day in Melbourne town, on this Labour Day holiday.
Dem Rep Jake Auchinloss on CNN
———-
: “Zelenskyy flew to Washington, but he walked into the Kremlin.”
ScromoIIsays:
Monday, March 10, 2025 at 8:24 am
I think the “bottom falling out of Dutton’s numbers” is a rather optimistic scenario for the posters from the Left.
I think “middle Australia” is far more aligned with Trump than most of the university-educated intellectual snob-set realise
———
LOL the average middle Australian is far more likely to be university or tafe qualified than a Trump supporter.
If the liberals don’t get over the delusion that there’s a Trumpian base just waiting to vote liberal they will be staying in opposition.
meher baba says:
Monday, March 10, 2025 at 8:16 am
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Some reasonable considerations in the post except for a persistent inability to recognize Albanese’s leadership style.
Albanese is not strong man Trump/Dutton style.
It is collaborative and managerial. Ministers have a remarkable degree of autonomy. It is how his cabinet works. Peeps like yourself should actually recognize what a remarkably functional Cabinet Government this has been. Government policies nest properly. They have been through good quality policy processes. Program management, ditto. There is fiscal discipline. There is Cabinet in Confidence discipline. This is a remarkably functional government. Think back to Rudd, Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison by contrast – nearly always in a shambles.
The result has been a government that has implemented reform policies across the board – climate, HR, health, education, foreign policy, veterans affairs, housing, womens issues, indigenous programs… with the conspicuous failure of defence purchasing.
Good governance and across-the-board outcomes take good leadership.
Sure Albanese has to put up with an MSM that would not recognize good governance for quids.
Dutton, by way of contrast, has a habit of adopting large policy positions (and back flipping on them) without bothering to consult his colleagues. That LOOKs strong but it is exactly Trump’s style of one man government that is wrecking the joint in the US and will surely lead to a continuation of Coalition shambles should Dutton stumble into being the PM.
A resounding result in WA for state Labor.
Defense economist Perun’s youtube video this morning looks extremely topical.
“ The Changing War in Ukraine – The U.S. Aid Freeze, Momentum & how the War has changed in 2025”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QhTjj_2Nldc
Sprocket 8.20am
W R Taylor will not survive the scrutiny, two other siblings on the teat, dodgy agricultural practices, the dodgiest water dealer around, largest number of wind turbines in an electorate, Barnaby has an outstanding IOU and enough other stuff in his cupboard.
It’s not too late to be rid of the phantom opposition leader, but no other Liberals would be suitable.
That leaves only Barnaby!
Spent the weekend down in Wannon.
Tehan and Dyson are locked in an epic battle. Both must be spending a fortune.
So many ads on the regional TV variations.
They look to be in competition for who has the most roadside signs. They are everywhere from Colac onwards. Dyson’s are more prominent.
goll
If the Liberal Party really deteriorates, the dominant Dutton Queensland faction could well split off and join the Nationals. Tony Abbott mused about this possibility back in the day.
Having abandoned ‘inner city elites’ and surrendered a dozen seats to the Teals, a re-branding into an expanded National Party is not out of the question.
A Barnaby Joyce type figure would be ideal to capture the public attention, something the hamfisted and tin eared Dutton hasn’t – and the ‘country town cranky accountant’ image of Littleproud is underwhelming.
So when are the next polls due out this week?
YouGov to release one to say that the last one was an outlier and it’s really 52/48 to the Coalition?
Cat
I saw your earlier post and I offer my best wishes to your family.
Australia’s external sector is running a surplus in AUD, meaning it is spending less AUD than it earns.
The domestic non-government sector is in the same boat.
What are the implications for the currency issuer’s fiscal statement?
Bueller? Bueller?
Lars I’d say 51-49 is a pretty good win considering the sustained and daily onslaught brought about by the various News limited arms. They don’t even try to hide their intent anymore. Throw in the speersification of the ABC and the break up of fairfax for good measure.
It’s very hard to get any sort of balanced narrative in the msm today for federal Labor.
Fundamentally this has been a reasonable and stable government. Yes albo spent too long in official mourning following the referendum as well as signing the disastrous FTA with India.
Beyond those things Albo has just been unlucky to be the one at the helm when a lot of slow burning issues that were ignored by previous successive governments came to ahead. The immigration crisis being top of that list.
The housing crisis has been brewing for decades in the too hard basket and it was unfortunate that it exploded on Labor’s watch.
As a part of the globally integrated finance markets there is almost nothing individual governments can do to counter things like inflation, stagnated wage growth etc.
We are about to get 2022 Palmer redux.
Every Murdoch tabloid across the country has this yellow footer on the front page – first theme?
Divisive racism against our First Peoples.
Brisbane and SEQ may be over the threat from a cyclone and high winds but the rain is still falling and the flooding threat is real. We may not know how bad the flooding gets till the end of the week. Dutton is still missing.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/mar/09/more-than-330000-buildings-without-power-as-ex-tropical-cyclone-alfred-brings-dangerous-rain-and-winds
Trump’s sellout of Ukraine is total. Despite Zelensky giving in to the minerals demand Trump still won’t restore US military aid or intelligence.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/trump-wants-see-just-minerals-deal-restart-aid-intel-ukraine-rcna195508
Hahaha what a great paper is the Tele.
When it was Morrison sending the country into debt for the next 4 generations via the $750 a week, every week for everyone on the payroll of his SME mates it was simply a case of ‘nothing to see here’
But we can’t have what any smart incumbent would do going into an election and hand down a budget full of goodies.
Clive going all out to ensure he breaks the 4% threshold so that Mr and Mrs Tax payer foot the bill for this campaign instead of it coming out of his billions. Genius move- Clive stokes his ego, Newslimited get a piece of the action and all thanks to you and me!
ScromoII: ‘I think “middle Australia” is far more aligned with Trump than most of the university-educated intellectual snob-set realise.’
Yeah! Smart arse uni students with their knowledge, scientific literacy and understanding of how the economy works and stuff…
BW: “… a persistent inability to recognize Albanese’s leadership style.
Albanese is not strong man Trump/Dutton style.It is collaborative and managerial. Ministers have a remarkable degree of autonomy. It is how his cabinet works. Peeps like yourself should actually recognize what a remarkably functional Cabinet Government this has been. ”
—————————————————————————–
Nice try. Your description would certainly apply to Hawke’s style of leadership. But why don’t you write a letter to Tanya Plibersek and ask her whether she agrees that ministers under Albo have “a remarkable degree of autonomy”?
Albo has run his government with a very tight rein, with the aim of avoiding political problems above all else. He has announced quite a lot of initiatives, but it seems to me that they are all rather piecemeal and not part of an overall strategy.
A good example, the changes to Medicare: the urgent care clinics, the increased money for bulk-billing, GP training, etc. The urgent care clinics aren’t a bad idea looked at in isolation, but as some medicos have pointed out on this forum, their main effect is to draw GPs out of general practice to work on the fringes of the acute care system: which is great news for state governments in terms of reducing pressure on EDs, but probably not great news for people living in outer suburban and rural areas where there is a shortage of GPs. Why has the Federal Government prioritised the needs of the state governments over those of ordinary people? Deal-making, which is what Albo likes to do more than anything else.
To his credit, Butler clearly wants to talk about a major restructuring of primary care, including how it is funded. I don’t entirely agree with his vision, but at least he seems to have one. But it isn’t being realised through the various health initiatives that pop out from time to time, so he presumably isn’t getting anywhere with it in Cabinet discussions and is certainly not being given any autonomy in implementing it. No doubt because it’s a bit scary and might lead to political problems.
Albo’s and Wong’s approach towards the conflict in the Middle East is another classic illustration. They’ve tried to avoid offending anyone and have ended up pissing off both the local Jewish community and the local Muslim community.
It’s this lack of ambition and general inability to paint a “big picture” that has made me unimpressed with the Albanese Government. There seems to be a strong undercurrent of fear of failure which, as often happens, is actually causing them to drift slowly towards the waterfall. I suspect that much of the election campaign is going to focus on the risk of putting Dutton in charge. That in itself will illustrate that they are struggling to produce a narrative of what they are on about. Even though there is so much that could be done in terms of structural reform: not all of which would necessarily be unpopular.
And please don’t respond with a listicle. The Hawke Government didn’t need listicles, they were able to point towards big picture achievements. First term: the Accord and Medicare. First and second terms: budget surpluses, major reforms to economic management, the taxation system and the social welfare system. Third term: the first comprehensive national response to environmental issues. Unfortunately, after 1990 there was a lot of infighting and then Keating’s tepid period in charge, which nevertheless brought us Native Title, APEC and competition policy reforms.
Albo’s one attempt at a big picture reform – the Voice – turned into a faceplant.
I think I’m being fair rather than mean. Albo would have made quite an effective NSW Premier: a job that is mainly about wheeling and dealing and looking after a wide range of interest groups. But we should be looking for a bit more than this from a PM. Hawke and, to some extent, Keating gave us more. So did Howard, no matter what you think about his polices. Since then, we haven’t had much to get excited about, although I reckon Gillard had a bit of an urge to reform, and would have achieved more if she hadn’t been hacked down from within. Turnbull wanted to be a reformer, but wasn’t capable of achieving anything. The rest didn’t achieve much. We’re getting used to it, but we shouldn’t be.
Mary Carney won with 85% of the Vote in the Canadian Liberal Leadership vote.
Furthermore, Meher, I think there’s actually an appetite for reform. People actually want changes around taxation, there’s even discussion around taxing property.
ScromoII @ #118 Monday, March 10th, 2025 – 8:52 am
Scrotum II is a bag of pus. Leaking all over the place.
Australia – Lions led by Donkeys?
Socrates @ #124 Monday, March 10th, 2025 – 9:09 am
The ‘minerals deal’ is trivially easy for Zelensky to delay or frustrate completely. Trump can break agreements with disdain. So can Zelensky.
Canada’s Liberal leadership race: Mark Carney chosen as new Liberal leader
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/livestory/liberal-leadership-race-mark-carney-chosen-as-new-liberal-leader-9.6678061
live updates
Mark Carney was overwhelmingly elected new leader of the Liberal Party and will soon be Canada’s 24th prime minister.
https://web.archive.org/web/20250309224051/https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-liberal-party-to-select-new-leader-ending-justin-trudeaus-nearly-12/
Time for a bit of Morn Patrol:
From the Smage:
Trump likely to go ahead with his steel/aloominum tariffs this week and Australia is unlikely to get an exemption.
https://www.theage.com.au/world/north-america/i-doubt-it-top-trump-adviser-talks-down-chance-of-tariff-exemption-20250309-p5li3j.html
Trump’s second term is shaping up as a mix of sadism, incompetence and corruption
https://www.theage.com.au/world/north-america/how-trump-derangement-syndrome-led-americans-back-for-another-round-20250309-p5li4x.html
Lindsay Fox is backing Amelia Hamer in Kooyong
https://www.theage.com.au/national/old-family-links-put-a-fox-among-the-liberals-in-kooyong-20250309-p5li68.html
Sean Kelly writes about The unforced errors Dutton made in his worst fortnight as opposition leader
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/dutton-just-had-his-worst-two-weeks-as-leader-a-later-election-can-only-help-him-20250309-p5li61.html
Over at the Australian
Anthony Albanese has pledged to ‘hold insurance companies to account’ and Peter Dutton says he’s trapped at home by rising waters with ‘very dangerous’ thunderstorms set to add to rainfall totals of above 450mm for the weekend.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics-alfred-latest-flash-flooding-a-high-risk-as-alfred-lingers/live-coverage/92a46bd1ebbefd88acfb3c78845c8be1
Simon (Benson) says – Something something Newspoll says whoever is in government this time won’t be in government next time…
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/newspoll-shows-were-drifting-to-an-electoral-disaster/news-story/e61b3cc0782772b61cc832ccb5edcb15
He also writes that Support for Anthony Albanese’s performance has lifted but not enough to carry Labor to a winnable position, while Newspoll also shows a majority of voters are not convinced the Coalition is ready to govern again.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/newspoll-majority-of-voters-believe-coalition-not-yet-ready-to-govern-again/news-story/c429e633ae4d0c5d578eed3abe53e91e
Chris Mitchell writes that Trump’s second term is already a success globally, insofar as challenging the madder agenda of identity politics that consumed the Democrats under President Joe Biden.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/media/trump-20-deserves-no-more-or-less-than-fair-scrutiny-from-the-media/news-story/031f84478ccbf1709fb69522f81e3801
Mr Fishnet Stockings has penned an article about global affairs:
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/europes-leaders-are-still-in-denial-over-ukraine/news-story/940d0da429ac2e7ee595a171f16444df
Over at the Independent:
Michelle Pini writes that Gina Rinehart and Peter Dutton prepare for Trumpian ‘Golden Shower’ down under
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/gina-rinehart-and-peter-dutton-prepare-for-trumpian-golden-shower-down-under,19505
Victoria Fielding writes that Trump’s overreach making the world finally see the Right
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/trumps-overreach-making-the-world-finally-see-the-right,19507
Peter Dutton’s Dickensian working-from-home ban
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/duttons-dickensian-working-from-home-ban,19497
Dutton’s nuclear disaster: Cheap lies and a $20 billion deficit
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/duttons-nuclear-disaster-cheap-lies-and-a-20-billion-deficit,19447
Finally at The Guardian:
Three key takeaways from the WA election which hint at Labor’s fortunes (and challenges) in federal vote
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/mar/10/three-key-takeaways-from-the-wa-election-which-hint-at-labors-fortunes-and-challenges-in-federal-vote
‘I hate to predict things’: Trump doesn’t rule out US recession amid trade tariffs
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/mar/09/trump-recession-trade-tariffs
Mark Carney to be next Canadian PM after winning Liberal leadership race
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/mar/09/mark-carney-to-be-next-canada-pm-after-winning-liberal-leadership-race
Cartoons:
Morning all. Well the last few days has been fun. Alfred actually was worse after it stopped being a cyclone. Saturday night was worse than Friday night. Anyway all is good here and we can start getting back to normal.
Polling still looking like a minority Labor government
Looks like Rudd,Cook,Wong and Albanese stupid comments about Trump over the years including that he is a “traitor” means tariffs this week.
Well done labor why is Rudd still ambassador to The USA after what he said?
Selfish personal opinions put above the national interest by federal labor government.
Labor has lost the mortgage belt from Werribee to Perth and they are waiting with baseball bats for the election to cancel labor.
Watching Mark Carney’s victory speech, he is giving a big chunk in French – in part because his French language skills have been questioned. And he is trying to tie the opposition directly to Trump.
He has also announce the scraping of their carbon tax for SME.
pied piper; Your making big assumptions about Trumps ability to remember anything about Australia for that long.
Thanks Alpha zero et al for today’s musings
Mark Carney – “You can’t stand up to Trump if you are kneeling at the altar of Trump”.
Benson can’t be taken seriously.
pied piper says:
Monday, March 10, 2025 at 9:55 am
Looks like Rudd,Cook,Wong and Albanese stupid comments about Trump over the years including that he is a “traitor” means tariffs this week.
Well done labor why is Rudd still ambassador to The USA after what he said?
Rudd spoke for all of us. Trump is a traitor. The punters are tuned in to that. His tariff policies show that not only is he a traitor he is a destructive idiot.
Voters will not blame Labor for Trump. But they will not forget that Dutton and the reactionaries have associated themselves with the moron who is now smashing everything. Their awareness of this is helping to lift Labor support. By the time of the election the Liberals will be wishing they’d never heard of Donald Trump….the criminal, the gangster, the rapist, the turncoat, the coward and the bully.
What does a Dutton LOTO budget reply even look like? More nuclear, less WFH, less public servants and services, less support of Ukraine, and ummm, yep that’s about it.
Perhaps put on your bingo cards ‘war on woke’, and if that pops up that tells you they’ve banked the farm on a Trump campaign and are not nimble enough or smart enough to have seen that high tide mark is already a distant and fading vision in the rear view mirror of Australian’s minds.
Meanwhile mark down a massive injection of funds by Chalmers in the budget to Northern NSW and SE Qld for future proofing against flooding. Duttons powder is wet from all that non-existent climate change induced cyclonic rain and wind.
So how fond of Peter Dutton is Gina Reinhardt?
Very fond. So fond that workers and visitors to her Roy Hill mine in the Pilbara are greeted by a mural of biblical proportions. The AFR has the scoop.
Mark Di Sefano
‘ There isn’t photos or video of Peter Dutton’s trips for his billionaire patrons Gina Rinehart and Justine Hemmes.’
But Rinehart has erected a fantastic mural at her Roy Hill mine site of her 70th birthday. We’ve been sent it, and it shows Dutton by her side.
Dutton needs to be very careful here – the Canadian Liberals seem to be benefiting mightily from Trump’s tariff attacks on Canada. It is not a good time to be attacking a government that is making the utmost effort to deal with a dangerous moron like Trump.
Mark Carney and his govt will win the next Canadian election
So how fond of Peter Dutton is Gina Reinhardt?
Oh …… looked that up and its … actually real…. 🙁
Thats ……. in a sense …very very sad.
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2025-opinion-trump-promises-data/, note the line with the Reps (hello mid terms?) controlling Congress he doesn’t need to care about job approval
Is Cyclone Alfred Albos Tampa moment? “I’ll decide how best to spend relief money amd where to spend it, here’s a levy for you, and a levy for you, a levy for you and a levy for you.”