The Australian reports Newspoll has the Coalition with an unchanged two-party lead of 51-49, from primary votes of Labor 32% (up one), Coalition 39% (up one), Greens 12% (steady) and One Nation 7% (steady). Despite the stable voting intention results, Anthony Albanese records much improved personal ratings, up four on approval to 41% and down five on disapproval to 53%, and increases his lead as preferred prime minister from 45-40 to 47-38. Peter Dutton is down two on approval to 39% and up two on approval to 53%. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1255.
Would Labor benefit from announcing that they are going to preference “Trumpeters of Patriots” behind the Liberals or Nationals? Attempt to do a wedge, like how the Liberals have at times make a big deal about leaving the Greens behind Labor?
I stick by Mumble and Michelle Grattan’s observation that the government usually picks up support during an election campaign, from where they are at the beginning.
As stated before, I think that this Newspoll probably is indicating that the YouGov poll from a few days ago might’ve been an outlier. Still, I think I’d wanna see more polls come out over the span of this week to see if there might be some sort of recovery for Labor in polling.
For now, I’m leaning of the opinion that the RBA rate cuts and other recent events probably haven’t affected polling trends too much.
@C@tmommasays: Sunday, March 9, 2025 at 10:23 pm
Pretty sure Kevin Bonham has stated in his blog that polling does narrow the closer we get to an election so I am expecting that to happen.
B. S. Fairman @ #1 Sunday, March 9th, 2025 – 10:23 pm
I think their best strategy would probably be to just treat them as the weirdos they are and keep them at arm’s length, but if pressed, answer questions about them like,
“What are those freaks on about? Clive’s a billionaire and all he comes up with is tacky $20 imagery like that? What country does he think he’s campaigning in, America?”
I have to admit, the first time I read about a ‘Jamaica coalition’ I had no idea what the knife and fork they were talking about. Now I’m really into these colour combinations. It’s like a code, or puzzle.
B. S. Fairman says:
Sunday, March 9, 2025 at 10:23 pm
Would Labor benefit from announcing that they are going to preference “Trumpeters of Patriots” behind the Liberals or Nationals? Attempt to do a wedge, like how the Liberals have at times make a big deal about leaving the Greens behind Labor?
_____________________________________________
How long will it be before Clive’s women candidates become labelled Strumpets of Patriots?
The polls have averaged 50/50 since forever now and nothing I can see indicates a change of Government. Someone can show us the LNP’s path to Government, I’m sure, but it is looking pretty hazy from here. Over to the experts!
And for something left field:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/mar/09/russian-officials-criticised-for-giving-meat-grinders-to-mothers-of-soldiers-killed-in-ukraine
Dutton is like a zombie trying to avoid the inevitable sunrise which will be the may election. He will try to duck, weave and avoid it but in the end it will get him
Re-posted
The Trump effect – the elevation of uncertainty about the future – will help re-elect Labor. This was almost certainly a factor in Labor’s really impressive victory yesterday here in WA. By the time the Federal election is held in May voters will have fully tuned in to the catastrophe that is Trump-in-power.
Voters will rally to the relative safety of the Government they know. I think the Liberals are at risk of losing quite a few more seats. The Trump-cringe will haunt the Reactionaries, making it difficult for them to campaign. Wherever Dutton goes he will remind voters of Trump. And that will mean that whenever he campaigns he will be campaigning for Labor. We’ve already seen this. Dutton has gone into hiding.
In another effect, Trump is already hurting the property market. Buyers are holding back….conserving their cash, just in case. Buyers are already starting to factor in the prospects of a Trump-led recession. This will undoubtedly affect political expression in the same way as it is influencing investment behaviour.
Trump has saved the day for the Canadian Liberals, for President Macron, for Keir Starmer. He is going to assist Albo too. He has ruined Le Pen’s run. He will stem Dutton’s hopes. Trump. The emperor is naked and the populace do not like what they see.
Yes, Rod Harradine, it’s like the Coalition can magic up a 21 seat comeback from a 50-50 Newspoll result. 😀
TPOF @ #8 Sunday, March 9th, 2025 – 10:32 pm
Wow. There is such a thing as the “Babushka effect” in Russia where mothers of young men get so outraged by their sons being killed in war that it drives them toward acts of revolution.
With this it’s like the government is actively taunting them.
Bludgeoned Westiesays:
Sunday, March 9, 2025 at 10:24 pm
Bludgeoned, the UGov poll has Labor primary vote at 31. Newspoll has it at 32. So which one is the outlier?
If you take out the crazy Resolve poll a couple of weeks back which almost certainly was an Outlier, the ALP primary is 0-1% down on 2022 (at present) and the LNP is 1-2% up. I’m not seeing that translate into a 3% 2PP swing, which even if it did happen, I reckon is totally 50/50 as to whom would form government. Best reading of the polls, as stated by WB on Bludgertrak and KB on his aggregates, is that current voting intention is between 50.5- 49.5, in one way or the other.
If you don’t think there is a very good chance the labor vote will jump 1% the week after an election is called, you don’t know your history.
Quentin perhaps- but I’d err more on the side of genuine concern coming through from benson et al because he knows Dutton will now have to develop policies to not only prosecute but also release.
They know that having to make Dutton formulate a budget reply will be disastrous.
They know that Albanese was steadfast and decisive in declaring support for Ukraine just as Europe was cobbling together a coalition of the ‘willing’
They know that Labor now gets to bask in the glory of incumbency as they mop up SE QLD and begin work on a milk and honey budget.
But most importantly they know that mimicry of trumpism won’t work in a nation that values and relies on social safety net no matter your political or social economic status.
Just as work choices failed spectacularly for Howard so will this emulation for Dutton.
The news limited ranking committee can obviously see the writing on the wall.
Honestly guys when I heard Simon saying that the people don’t want to a coalition government I think they have people inside the coalition campaign talking to the Australian newspapers saying it’s going to be a minority government because that was a weird headline from them
I found the video I was looking for the other day! I’m sure you all remember! I’m sure there’s no need to post the video itself, because the answer is so obvious!!
196-182*0.5=7!!
Anthony being strong on Ukraine may have helped his rating, Australians will never vote for 7 large nuclear power plants…I am calling the election now, Labor will be returned.
Poll trend is for past 18 months or so labor going backwards steadily.
From 57-43 up to 49-51 behind.
To ignore this for 18 months is whacky and to wait to the last moment to go to an election ignores the trend.
So a budget with red ink for years to be presented more time for own goals that drags labors vote down as it has for a long time problem now is a couple more own goals and the vote is down to 47-53 behind.
I don’t know Christopher, I think the hunter could flip to the Libs because they really want a nuclear plant built in the upper hunter. They are also excited by the prospect of not having to persevere with their main industry of digging up coal to power the nation.
Christopher J says:
Sunday, March 9, 2025 at 10:41 pm
Anthony being strong on Ukraine may have helped his rating, Australians will never vote for 7 large nuclear power plants…I am calling the election now, Labor will be returned.
Yup. The nuclear policy is aimed at comforting the Reactionaries – the party members. It is anathema to voters. Dutton has chosen to make his mob unsupportable. How very conceited they are.
Fairly deflating result for the A.L.P.
They had sooooo much to talk about. $8.5b on mediscam, RBA rate cuts (btw Labor can now rig rate cuts), Dutton threatening to sack 36k public servants. Albo swanning around Brisbane like some sort of public embarassment. Peter Dutton flying in for the cyclone, as Albo pissed off (noted by QLD’ers I’m sure), probably to his $4.3m dacha so he can watch events unfold on skynews.
What happenned – Libs up! Nearly 40%.
Of more concern, is the Greens are in the doldrums, Pauline is riding high, and both Kevin Bonham and YouGov are of the opinion that Greens/Pauline preferences are flowing in a different way to what they did in 2022.
But Laborite loons – believe this newspoll to be what you want it to be!
It’s a shit poll for Albo.
Dutton could simply refuse to formulate a budget reply and say “you’ll find out later”.
With the current state of the national media, he could choose to do that with impunity.
Hello Davidwh I hope you fared well after a last nights and today’s weather.
Guys who still think that Liberals are gonna get a majority government I would tone down your retric because it looks like it’s going to be a minority this isn’t a Queensland or Western Australia where we knew months out what the results going to be that’s why if I was a in the labour campaign I’ll be happy that it’s 50/50 and not worse you can come back from a 51 to a 49 ask Scott Morrison
Piped piper you’ve lost your usual schizoid-delusional manic hyperbole this evening?
First entropy running out of browsing data on his prepaid mobile earlier and now this??
Pied Piper did you pull that um 47 to 53 to the liberals at your ass because it does seem like it
Hack, woke, Partisan
Yes which is why I wanted Labor to go in May not April. On April 30 the US first quarter GDP numbers will be released and I expect it will show negative growth, brought on by the reckless new administration. That will not help Dutton and the Coalition who are seeking to mimic everything Trump does.
And also they didn’t expect they would have to produce a budget reply, and I think that will add considerably to their difficulties in their largely ‘policy free’ campaigning.
And it can’t help them when their one major policy, nuclear power plants, is derided as a non-starter not just by recent Liberal Cabinet Minster Chris Pyne, but also by current Nationals Senator Matt Canavan.
paul A says:
Sunday, March 9, 2025 at 10:45 pm
This Newspoll suggests that Labor support has bottomed and is firming to levels consistent with 2022 results.
The question is….why is this occurring. The answer is twofold. First, domestic economic signals are working for Labor after 3 years of working against Labor. And second: Trump.
These two factors will return Labor with an increased majority. I haven’t had a look at the pickable fruit. But I will.
The Reactionaries deserve to be crushed. Hopefully they will be. There has never been a more unelectable bunch of lazy, bigoted, ideological misfits than the current Opposition. They should dissolve themselves.
Plus there’s a larger-than-zero chance that Trump might respond to that by sending a Carrier invasion fleet to take over Greenland and/or Panama in response to that bad economic news, or even send military aid to Russia and as a result that MAGA politics become much harder to defend.
How anti democratic “you’ll find out later”. Astroturfers got nothing better to do than talk trash
Scromoll
Dutton could simply refuse to formulate a budget reply and say “you’ll find out later”.
With the current state of the national media, he could choose to do that with impunity.
May not be such a good idea if there is a hung Parliament and you are trying to negotiate with Independents for support.
This was Tony Abbott’s approach to costings before the 2010 election, and ‘I would have got away with it except for the hung Parliament and those pesky Independents’ who soon found out the truth, which Abbott had thought would only come to light if he’d won and then it would be too late for anyone to complain.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/abbott-digs-himself-a-hole-20100902-14rjp.html
It’s a bad time to have your party associated with the orange maniac in the White House. Dutton has made his bed and now can enjoy the stench.
The irony of the nuclear issue coming back to bite Dutton and the LNP long after its usefulness as a wedge /point of difference is utterly hilarious.
Dutton never had any intention of building such costly and controversial things. Everything about them goes against all the core LNP values of perceived budgetary constraint and austerity. His strategists can no longer contain the nuclear animal they created and meant merely as a side show. Now they are entering into an election with a hallmark policy that fails every cost-benefit analysis and a return on investment 7 decades away.
If the real 2PP is 50- 50 then results of 51 – 49 or 52 – 48 either way are within standard deviation for a sample of 1000 – 1250.
What is surprising with Newspoll is its lack of randomness which suggests a level of data massaging.
leftieBrawler
I have thought for months they must be regretting the whole nuclear thing – and thinking they could have instead just run on a ‘cossie-livs’ strategy, seeing as that seemed to work in the USA.
The government will now hand down a budget, most likely in deficit, and Dutton will give a reply. Albanese will then call the date of the election.
The election is “there” for both parties to be won!
I will thoroughly examine the betting markets tomorrow afternoon/night.
So who is going to win???
The improver from here on to during the election campaign.
The tip: election night, you know the story…w—-ka
“paul Asays:
Sunday, March 9, 2025 at 10:45 pm
Fairly deflating result for the A.L.P.
They had sooooo much to talk about. $8.5b on mediscam, RBA rate cuts (btw Labor can now rig rate cuts), Dutton threatening to sack 36k public servants. Albo swanning around Brisbane like some sort of public embarassment. Peter Dutton flying in for the cyclone, as Albo pissed off (noted by QLD’ers I’m sure), probably to his $4.3m dacha so he can watch events unfold on skynews.
What happenned – Libs up! Nearly 40%.
Of more concern, is the Greens are in the doldrums, Pauline is riding high, and both Kevin Bonham and YouGov are of the opinion that Greens/Pauline preferences are flowing in a different way to what they did in 2022.
But Laborite loons – believe this newspoll to be what you want it to be!
It’s a shit poll for Albo.”
How doth the lady protest?!?
The polls are increasing looking more similar to 2022 than anything else
And I doth suspect that the campaign ain’t gonna help dutton
But please do post again how you think this poll that has albos star rising and Duttons falling as the only outside of moe outcome as some how being bad for Labor
Giddy up. REnewed majority incoming!
Dutton has been such a disaster as opposition leader the only hope for the Liberals is to dump him as leader asap.
Even Susan Ley would be a better opposition leader.
Interesting Newspoll 🙂
I suggest Dutton should react like that WA Liberal last night who said “Maybe we haven’t gone far enough to the right?”
There has still only been one interest rate reduction so far. Labor needs to keep focusing on cost of living and it’s polling should improve further.
Hack, woke, Partisan.
You are one of the few Australian’s who fret about Donald Trump on a daily basis. For those of us who rarely post here, we see the same sort of loonies repetitively posting about Trump like it means something (think of Confessions and Victoria). They are obsessed with Trump to the extent they may have T.D.S. like you clearly do. Confessions has a history of hysteria – please check out the former U.S. threads, if you want to see her posting nonsense.
You need to get over the democratic election result last November, unless you wish to go down the “rigged” rabbit hole nonsense. If, however, you’re after “group think agreement”, then you’ve found the right place.
On more pertinant issues, if you wish to pretend that Labor is on track to pick up Federal seats in W.A. (as you forthrightedly posted upthread), after copping a 17-18% primary swing, please by all means believe this. They won’t, but if it makes you feel good to believe they will, then do so.
We have another poster on the site who believes Labor is on track to increase their seats in wokeToria, despite the Federal Labor vote apparently sitting at around 25%. (ie: an 8% primary decline).
We are told every morning that the ALP will pick up more seats, based on these sorts of figures.
Fair dinks. You’ll read it here on this site. They’re out there.
Hack woke p. – You need to get out of your shell a bit, my friend.
Centre says:
Sunday, March 9, 2025 at 11:02 pm
The government will now hand down a budget, most likely in deficit, and Dutton will give a reply. Albanese will then call the date of the election.
In deficit? Almost certainly not in deficit. The budgetary position is firm and getting firmer. Labor will campaign as the superior economic manager. They will contrast their achievements with a decade of Liberal stupidities and failure
Preciously rocket rocket.
It was a joint venture initiative with the LNP PR division over at sky news concocted up in late 2022 when it appeared things couldn’t get any worse for Dutton and the LNP. The honey moon just kept going for Labor and well before the voice.
Rolls Royce and GE had just released a few 2 minute you tube videos on the wonders of small reactors and how they will power the future- reactors the size of a basket ball that could power 300k households.
Well they ran with that but in doing so renewed the resolve of the likes of Simon Holmes a court and his climate 200 org.
The prospect of the teals being able to retain their cross bench presence was significantly increased by the LNP nuclear strategy.
I spoke with the man briefly at a Sydney event in late 2022 and you could tell the small reactor theoretical nonsense had really hit a nerve. If the teals hold up we will owe people like Simon a debt of gratitude
The Trumpists being the sober and rational analysts is a novel concept.
leftieBrawler
Yes I forgot that, that it was all about SMR’s to start with, until they realised no-one could possibly sell that fantasy with a straight face.
My favourite line to any Coalition spruikers of nuclear power is to ask them how are they planning to reverse John Howard’s (Coalition followers genuflect) legislated ban on nuclear power in the Senate.
paul A says:
Sunday, March 9, 2025 at 11:11 pm
In a partial reverse of the covid result from 2021, the Reactionary vote in WA has improved somewhat. However, the 2PP split yesterday was notably stronger for Labor than the 2PP split in the 2022 Federal election.
Labor have 2 months to campaign on economic management, the nuclear issue and Trump=Dutton. We are going to romp home.
I was at a usually Lib-Leaning polling place yesterday. Labor won very easily. The Liberals are essentially unelectable. So very many voters were pleased to see the red t-shirt and take an HTV from me. They like Labor. They say so with their ballots. Just wait. 2 months….a budget, a campaign and continuing debacle in the US….just watch. Australia is not the US. We are going to give the Reactionaries a hiding they will not forget.
10 billion at least in deficit.
West Aussies now have the insurance of a labor government locally so they can now vote for balance which Aussies like which is at one level labor and at another level liberal.
So they can vote liberal and give fed labor a kicking.
mj says:
Sunday, March 9, 2025 at 11:15 pm
The Trumpists being the sober and rational analysts is a novel concept.
============================
Tough gig mj, but the reality is that there are a lot of loons who spend their time all day/every day carrying on about Trump, like it has an impact. I assume it is some sort of therapy for them.
Check out the threads from last week. All “they” post is Trump/Trump/Trump/Trump/Trump.
They are obsessed – It’s known as T.D.S.
paul A says:
Sunday, March 9, 2025 at 11:11 pm
Hack, woke, Partisan.
Confessions has a history of hysteria
A sexist slur from a reactionary Trump-o-phile
Hack woke p. – You need to get out of your shell a bit, my friend.
Supercilious polemics from an arrogant reactionary. You’re not my friend. I detest everything you stand for. I will add an extra couple days door-knocking in Hasluck.
The reactionaries might like to wave away the concerns about Trump. This is empty bravado and totally underestimates voters, something that only a fool would do.
Trump has trashed 80 years of foreign and security policy. He has declared economic war on the economic partners of the US. He is a really conspicuous liar and compulsive criminal. The voters know it. They really do not like it. He is a wrecking ball.
pied piper says:
Sunday, March 9, 2025 at 11:26 pm
10 billion at least in deficit.
10 billion? Nah…we have a Labor Treasurer. We know how to run fiscal policy. The Reactionaries are idiots. They cannot manage money. Voters will be reminded of this.