The weekly Roy Morgan poll is the second strong result for Labor out of the last three, crediting them with a 51.5-48.5 lead after a 50.5-49.5 result in favour of the Coalition last time. Labor was up one-and-a-half on the primary vote to 30%, with the Coalition down three to 37%, the Greens steady on 13.5% and One Nation up one to 5%. The two-party measure that goes off 2022 preference flows rather than respondent allocation has Labor leading 52-48, after a 50-50 result last time. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1719.
A Freshwater Strategy poll conducted for the News Corp papers points to a combined 5% swing against the teal independent members in Wentworth, Warringah, Mackellar, Goldstein, Kooyong and Curtin, which if uniform would return all but Warringah and Wentworth to the Liberal Party. No further detail on voting intention was provided beyond the fact that the incumbents’ primary votes had “largely held up”, but the Liberals had gained potentially decisive support at the expense of Labor and the Greens. Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton were tied 39-all on preferred prime minister, and 42% said they would support their MP backing a Labor minority government against 47% who said they wouldn’t. The poll was conducted last Wednesday to Friday from a sample of 830.
Nicely put.
So about the dei thing I’m autistic so if I get a job because someone says hey maybe we need to hire more autistic people does that mean dei’s bad because if anything it sounds like it’s a good thing to get people who can’t get a job a job like say hey I can work this job but I need wheelchair access and if they’re good at it you give it to them I don’t know it’s just seems like a bunch of people are angry that there’s more diverse people now because remember variety is the spice of life
Been There, Been There, Been There, you poor Silly Billy.
Don’t go there LOL
Listen carefully, you are like an 8 year-old playing footy in the backyard and you want to play in the NRL final series the next day.
Go back and give yourself 10+ years of serious study before you totally embarrass yourself 😀
Centresays:
Thursday, March 13, 2025 at 10:35 pm
I caught Rudd on the 7.30 Report before the footy.
Rudd is a highly experienced expert on international affairs no doubt – but hello, Trump does not like you!
When Dutton wins the election I’m sure Rudd will go.
—–
I got the impression from that interview that he wanted to spew out a few expletives, knowing him and what he is witnessing it’s understandable.
Dutton and Gina are likely going to lose the election because of the orange maniac people will think they have a similar nutjob agenda planned, Dutton hitched his wagon to this and sadly for him it’s blowing up now.
Just caught up with this by Mr Crowe.
He cheery picks what the regulator has said and completely ignores the reasons given for their conclusions.
How can there be a sensible debate when journalists/commentators do such a sloppy job and are more interested in promoting angst with half stories.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/politicians-have-been-telling-us-powerful-lies-for-years-it-s-about-to-get-worse-20250313-p5lj91.html
Centre I’m going to be honest you know who kos he’s been saying both major parties don’t have the seats to to form government no one is going to get to 76 seats also betting can be wrong remember 2019 because s*** Can Happen that’s why I’m keep saying don’t count Labor out
mj
I think the fact that the US is a serious ally and in these geopolitical times, with Albo not even being able to arrange a phone call with Trump spells disaster for him!
Advantage Dutton.
Quentin R
You are entitled to and I respect your views. I’ll be here after the election, promise 🙂
Listen Centre.
Don’t know why I bother replying to your pathetic response.
I’ve framed markets for bookmakers back in the day, based on ratings and money invested.
You might think you’re a guru, but you are just a pretend know all.
Anyone that takes any notice of you and your pseudo betting assessments are more the fool!
Centresays:
Thursday, March 13, 2025 at 11:26 pm
mj
I think the fact that the US is a serious ally and in these geopolitical times, with Albo not even being able to arrange a phone call with Trump spells disaster for him!
Advantage Dutton.
—-
No reasonable person or country can trust the USA on being a reliable ally when they are shitting on their closest friends.
Been There at 11.46pm, I also have done casual work for a bookie in the Kimberley about 50 years ago, before the TAB became a thing in that part of the world. Centre is talking out of his arse.
Been There OK let’s go:
Firstly, you couldn’t frame a photo to hang on a wall, so GET REAL or don’t bother.
Secondly, you have a short memory (remember USA election). I reported betting market activity and the polls followed. You showed ZERO regard for the market, like most others, and paid the price, paid the price big time.
Thirdly, what a you saying…that bookmakers only frame prices according to money wagered? In other words, more or less money means a shorter or longer price, is that it…
Cheers Granny,
This bloke needs slapping down.
Still has his little fan club though.
Hope things are going well for you over there in the west, saw you copped a bit of moisture today.
Be it noted that it was around when the Fitzgerald Commission was finding corruption under every rock it lifted that Mr Dutton decided that the Queensland Police Force would be his kind of place.
Granny Anny, where are you talking out of?
ZIP out of it!
Where are the coalition going to get all these seats from to be able to form any sort of government?.
They hold 58 seats- just three more than what Labor was left with after the devastation of 2013 and less than 10 more than Labor in 1996 after they were obliterated.
Not one of those elections featured a cross bench of almost 20 members of which about 90% were socially progressive and pro renewable energy/ green policy.
Add to that a sitting American president causing havoc and chaos with tariffs, upending our implied security guarantees and the general western hegemony and accepted order. Add that he is closely fused by association with said Opposition that is trying to win back government.
Am I missing something here ???? I’m I the crazy one??
True Centre, but at this stage of the game it’s a false market, small pools, dumb money, maybe most or some of it yours.
Anyone trying to predict an election result on betting prices right now is an idiot.
Been There, you are shifting the goal-posts. It’s now the stage of my prediction that is your problem, is it?
I can make a determination of the outcome of an election according to my analysis of the betting markets at my choosing!
You have learnt very little from the US election, haven’t you!
You are not crazy Leftie.
It’s those that think LNP have any chance of getting enough seats to overturn the deficit.
It’s not going to happen.
Been There
Let me give you a tip and listen carefully…
The monetary value wagered in a fixed odds betting system alone does NOT determine the odds, as you so critically of me suggest, do you know why?
Just spent some time with Dr Sophie’s campaign this week and I can say with 100% certainty that even if (God forbid) the Coalition end up with a couple more seats than Labor but are short of a majority, the Teals will support Labor to form government. There is nothing on the Teals policy platform that is even remotely aligned to the Coalition agenda.
leftieBrawler says:
Thursday, March 13, 2025 at 11:56 pm
Where are the coalition going to get all these seats from to be able to form any sort of government?.
———
The WA election is probably fairly indicative of what will happen federally if you look at the swings. You also have to take into account that the 2021 WA election was a huge anomaly in Labor’s favour.
Rural – Swings to conservatives but mostly in seats they already hold.
Outer suburbs/provincial – big swings to others generally but only half of that going to conservatives, will probably deliver a decent number of seats to the LNP but the vote here is very changeable and clearly these seats will decide the election.
Inner/middle suburbs – little 2PP movement perhaps a shift of votes towards Greens and other minors or independents – break even or even backwards trajectory for conservatives.
Team Katich says Thursday, March 13, 2025 at 10:03 pm
You are totally correct. All through history the places you see the greatest innovation are often the places you see the most diversity. Diversity of people, diversity of thought and diversity of talent. The US is actually a great example.
There appears to be an assumption by the MAGA crowd that anyone not white and male is only in their position because they’re a DEI hire. It’s just sexism and racism.
Studies have shown that people tend to hire other people just like themselves. One of the things diversity programs do is ensure the talent pool is widened and that more people get an opportunity, not just the privileged.
Or we could go back to the day when only men who went to the right schools were entitled to the important jobs. Where your tie and family connections was more important than your abilities. That’s the path to mediocrity and mediocrity is not a formula for a country’s future success.
Been There
I will give you just one reason “why” because I want to go to bed.
The money bet alone does not determine betting odds…because the bookmakers love making money, therefore won’t shorten odds, when taking money from dumbies who keep betting on Kamala, and clowns like you!
* I think you are a good bloke, please don’t piss me off
Don’t ask me do I know why, I redirect that question to you.
Look I’m not going to argue with an idiot anymore.
Goodnight all, and Centre, educate yourself!
,
I don’t think there’s any good promoting how good you are on inclusionary policies when many people feel they are struggling, the Voice referendum result clearly demonstrated that government needs to sort out mundane economic pressures first before embarking on anything more abstract. Modern Labor would prefer it be the other way around which is their current problem.
New YouGov dropped like 15 minutes ago. 51-49 ALP very similar results as last time.
https://au.yougov.com/politics/articles/51801-labor-consolidates-51-49-lead-albanese-ties-dutton-in-voter-satisfaction-for-the-first-time-in-a-year
So?
The logical conclusion of your statement is that no one should ever join a Police Service as Police are always being charged with corruption.
Are you claiming that anyone joining the Police intend to be corrupt? What evidence do you have to support that?
Another 400 pts down on the Dow Jones
An early good morning all. Thanks to Alex for that link to the new YouGov poll. It says:
“ Paul Smith, YouGov Director of Public Data commented, “Anthony Albanese’s personal satisfaction levels have notably improved, particularly as Australians overwhelmingly back his commitment to stand with Ukraine. Overseas leaders who’ve opposed Trump’s policies have seen improvements in their polling results, and Trump’s recent 25% tariff decision presents an opportunity for Albanese to further improve his leadership standing.”
The only voting cohort which disagrees with support for Ukraine is PHON voters. Even Liberals oppose Trump’s behavior.
https://au.yougov.com/politics/articles/51801-labor-consolidates-51-49-lead-albanese-ties-dutton-in-voter-satisfaction-for-the-first-time-in-a-year
Between Cyclone Alfred and his sympathy for Trump, Dutton has had another bad week.
I remain of the view Dutton and Albo need to back away from USA under Trump, including AUKUS. Malcolm Turnbull in this Foreign Policy article argues for the same.
https://www.australianforeignaffairs.com/afamonthly/what-albanese-should-do-about-trump#mtr
PS. The YouGov poll had a robust sample (1500) and was largely taken before the US tariff decision (7th to 13 March).
David Rowe
New thread.
Re betting markets. Centre bet currently has Longman 10-1 on for the Coalition and 6/1 against for Labor. It will be a lot closer than that on 17th May. The markets are thin at present and at best a rough guide.
Say what is the margin of error for an 859 size sample?
Turnbull not keen on sucking up
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/sFIjrDOEYig