The Australian reports Newspoll has the Coalition with an unchanged two-party lead of 51-49, from primary votes of Labor 32% (up one), Coalition 39% (up one), Greens 12% (steady) and One Nation 7% (steady). Despite the stable voting intention results, Anthony Albanese records much improved personal ratings, up four on approval to 41% and down five on disapproval to 53%, and increases his lead as preferred prime minister from 45-40 to 47-38. Peter Dutton is down two on approval to 39% and up two on approval to 53%. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1255.
Hack, woke, Partisansays:
Sunday, March 9, 2025 at 11:23 pm
paul A says:
Sunday, March 9, 2025 at 11:11 pm
” Labor have 2 months to campaign on economic management, the nuclear issue and Trump=Dutton. We are going to romp home. ”
====================
If I remember, you were adamant that Kamala was going to romp home too.
I think you may have even posted that Alaska, Texas & Florida would turn “blue”.
I may have to go back through the “U.S. threads”, to confirm the nonsense you posted.
A telling sign of tonight’s newspoll is a complete lack of mentioning over at Sky News. They upload several segments every hour of the day and not one of their uploads from the last few hours has any reference to it.
51-49, I say it was actually 50-50 at best for the libs
78 million voted for Trump he won the lot and he promised them he would do what he is doing.
Good to see a politician not breaking promises.
Dems are a rabble no figurehead.
Abc have just given the seat of Collie to labor they are now on 41.
paul A says:
Sunday, March 9, 2025 at 11:27 pm
Tough gig mj, but the reality is that there are a lot of loons who spend their time all day/every day carrying on about Trump, like it has an impact. I assume it is some sort of therapy for them.
Check out the threads from last week. All “they” post is Trump/Trump/Trump/Trump/Trump.
They are obsessed – It’s known as T.D.S.
———
Trump is creating chaos, he isn’t fit to lead anything in a constructive way which should be obvious to any reasonable person.
Also trump’s already entered the negative in polling so don’t know where pied Pipers getting their people liking Trump if anything they are voters remorse
“Abc have just given the seat of Collie to labor they are now on 41.”
hang on ….. didn’t i see dasS UberPotatoFuhrer saying that the Libs in W.A. did so well in Collie that it was an obvious endorsement of his Nuklear Reactors for all policy??? 🙂
mj @ #55 Sunday, March 9th, 2025 – 11:50 pm
Indeed, it’s all vicious nasty fun when you kick down someone else’s woke DEI sandcastle, but afterward comes the realization of “…oh, shit, what do we do now?” when they realized they actually don’t have anything in place they can replace it with.
Pied piper is once again trying his luck in the green card lottery to start over again in the central Florida Everglades as an unskilled migrant.
He is just honing his talking points here in readiness for the eventual approval.
“The thing about countries like Ukraine is they’ll let you do anything, grab ‘em by the pussy…”
Republican men blaming Ukraine for their predicament really is of a piece.
The Coalition nuclear plan originally stated 5 * 1 GW standard plants and 2 of 400-600 KW SMR. But their update a few months ago included figures and a graph on projected contributions to total TWH generation.
The numbers stated needed the plan to include 10 * 1 GW plants and the two SMR
Numbers numbers too hard for journos, pretty graph no problem.
39% LNP on Newspoll.
Must be a high, this parliamentary term, for Newspoll.
Rewi @ #61 Monday, March 10th, 2025 – 12:05 am
It really is disturbing how many people of the pro-Russian far-right are into this psychosexual bullshit.
Also don’t forget that even for the still theoretical small modular reactors best practice planning would dictate exclusion zone radiuses of up to 5-10km from the reactor core to safeguard against any natural- man made disaster.
Supposedly reactors the size of a basketball but buffer zones wider than the Korean DMZ.
On a side note im watching Tony Barry of Redbridge on sky news. Appears little more than an extension of the news limited PR apparatus. After 10 minutes of his musings I don’t think I could take anything redbridge puts out with any seriousness again.
paul Asays:
If anyone wants to know the drivvel stooge, (aka hack, woke partisan) posts here, well here it is.
By all means, go back to the U.S Presidential Election blog dated 30-Oct, to read it all un-sexed.
Complete drivvel.
___________________
Briefly, AKA Stooge, AKA Hack, woke partisan, alternates between deep despair and unregulated triumphalism and while he can be insufferable I have grown a bit fond of him over the years, as I have with many of the strange creatures that assemble here.
I will say another thing about him. His posts on the global economy and global trade are some of the finest you will find here.
So, nobody’s into maths then?
‘Dave’ I can’t get over how much youve been able to moderate and let go of your self and embrace this new construct !.
Do you at least still offer up savvy tips on monetary investment, private equity funds, the share market and so on?.
paul A says:
Monday, March 10, 2025 at 12:09 am
39% LNP on Newspoll.
Must be a high, this parliamentary term, for Newspoll.
———
You sound insecure about the LNP’s prospects.
Leftie, the secret has been 3 fold. Meditation for at least an hour a day. The use of edibles to chill the fuck out. And at least half an hour a day on the heavy bag to get the anger out. I’m not really into lifting weights or jogging. But half an hour on the heavy bag is a really good workout that doesn’t really strain your joints. Just keep on punching.
mjsays:
Monday, March 10, 2025 at 12:57 am
“paul A says:
Monday, March 10, 2025 at 12:09 am
39% LNP on Newspoll.
Must be a high, this parliamentary term, for Newspoll.
———
You sound insecure about the LNP’s prospects.
He is extremely insecure about the LNP’s prospects…..and wrong too. LNP got 40 in November…..and 39 the next couple after that
paul A says:
Sunday, March 9, 2025 at 11:41 pm
Yes. I was carried away by hope. I’m like that. I want the best for my fellow human beings. I believe a better future has to be possible. We lost. Not by a lot, but by enough. I’ve picked myself up. I’m mostly motivated to be more active by the lies of Reactionaries. I despise their mendacity….their easy cruelties and dumb-fuck stupidity.
I and my comrades…we will fight. We will win. We will never give up.
Then after the work out, smoke a spliff in the jacuzzi, maybe a little bit of vodka lemon lime and bitters. I’m more relaxed, no road rage incidents where I end up chasing someone down and dragging them out of their car. Also exploring new sexual fetishes because you can get a bit stale in the sack.
That’s not advice, that’s a prescription.
Latest Trump brainfart:
Donald Trump has threatened to impose new tariffs on Canada, including a 250% duty on dairy products and lumber imported from the country.
When you put someone in charge of finding government efficiencies who doesn’t understand how government works, this is what happens.
…
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/03/09/doge-government-credit-card-limits/
And now the corporate sector is publicly expressing concern.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/03/09/doge-companies-warnings-sec-filings/
A new report has torpedoed Peter Dutton’s claim that the Coalition’s nuclear power plan for Australia would be 44% cheaper than Labor’s plan for renewables, finding instead that it would inflate average consumer electricity bills by up to 41% between now and 2030.
https://johnmenadue.com/duttons-stuff-ups-n-plan-could-add-up-to-600-per-year-to-bills-by-2030/
____________
Nice work, Tritium Ted!
Most things Musk becomes involved in, go out to an early lead in the first lap, manage to bluff the second lap, come back to the field very quickly during the third lap and either don’t finish, throw the jockey or wander in defeated asking for the ambulance as the fourth lap disintegrates into a shambles.
The Trump/Musk bromance is a gridlock waiting for an excuse.
Dutton and the leftovers have placed their “hard earned” on the “urger’s” selection and the Liberals will rue the day they lazily allowed the “walloper” anywhere near the leadership.
The Liberals knew of Dutton’s inadequacies when they promoted the faux religious weirdo Morrison ahead of Dutton,then “doubled down”, at the next opportunity.
And it seems the enough voters have a clearer view now and are attempting to avoid another unnecessary political collision.
David Rowe
goll says:
Monday, March 10, 2025 at 7:21 am
___________________
Is it painful?
The Wall St Journal editorial of a couple of days back that ripped into Trump indicates that Rupert still likes to pick up the pen from time to time.
Any PBer who happens to have a WSJ subscription (and I doubt that there are many) can read the editorial here.
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/donald-trump-tariffs-emergency-power-ieepa-trade-mexico-canada-33e2739a?mod=opinion_lead_pos1
Otherwise, there is quite a good summary available here:
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5184045-wall-street-journal-donald-trump-tariffs/
Why do I think Rupert wrote it himself? Well, apart from the fact that Trump’s tariffs are exactly the sort of issue that would get him worked up enough to write an editorial himself, there is this particular paragraph:
“He’s treating the North American economy as a personal plaything, as markets gyrate with each presidential whim. It’s doubtful Mr. Trump even has the power to impose these tariffs, and we hope his afflatus gets a legal challenge.”
This style of writing is the sort that we’ve come to know and love in editorials in the Oz and the London Times over many years. It’s pure Rupert: especially the use of the word “afflatus” (which means poetic inspiration coming directly from the muses). He and his father were always pseudo-intellectuals, and I suspect were somewhat enviouis of Keith’s brother Walter, who became a professor of English literature at UWA and a renowned public intellectual.
It’s promising to be quite a scrap between Trump and Rupert over this issue. Rupert also doesn’t seem to be all that impressed about the Ukraine stuff. Watch this space.
gol:
Musk is facing an imminent ‘please explain’ from Tesla shareholders. His public behaviour and slashing the public service is trashing the Tesla brand.
How did a first term government get to a consistent 51:49 against it in polling with Peter Dutton of all people? Was it all the work of corrupt media units?
As Bob Hawke said The Australian people always get it right – and clearly nearly 1 in 3 will vote for neither Albo or Dutton.
Morning all. Trump’s tariffs are almost certain to tip the US economy into recession. The only question is how long it takes.
The controversy over Trump’s words and international actions distracts from other domestic extremes. The USA really is sliding into authoritarian rule. The story below is about the arrest and likely deportation of a protest leader. There is no allegation that he broke any law. The protests were peaceful, and against Israel.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/mar/09/ice-arrests-palestinian-activist-columbia-protests
Does anyone else remember Australian 1970s protests against Apartheid or 1980s protests against nuclear weapons?
PS: response to paul A last night.
My current personal obsession with Trump is not TDS: it is fuelled by what he is doing to the world ATM, including me personally as a self-funded retiree whose economic well-being has already been damaged by his ridiculous economic policies.
I wasn’t that interested in what going on during Trump 1.0, because, even though he proposed to do a lot of crazy stuff, he was stopped from doing it by those around him. This time round we are getting pure unadulterated Trump and surely even his most fervent supporters must be starting to wonder if there is truly a firm hand on the tiller, or if perhaps that white smudge that is steadily growing on the horizon might be an iceberg towards which their hero is steering the Titanic.
It doesn’t matter who you are or where you live on this planet, the threat of the US collapsing economically and/or politically should be overwhelming importance to you, because its consequences are likely to be diabolical for you. What’s happening there is far more important for Australia’s future that the comparatively trivial matter of who wins the forthcoming election.
Good Morning everyone. I’m sorry to say that I’ve been dealing with a family crisis this morning and also a close friend who was taken to hospital last night, so my daily news roundup has been severely affected as a result. I notice that BK is around, so if he has the time to throw something together that would be much appreciated. If he doesn’t have the time then I will get around to it myself later. Thanks in advance for your understanding.
meher – the best advice I have read re Trump was an interview with McConnell (who absolutely hates him and given he is not recontesting and has 2 years left on his term can say and do as he pleases).
Basically he said dont listen to the noise but look at what the final outcome is.
In other words he can say terrible things about Ukraine and tariffs but what is the actual outcome. It’s hard to see the US elite being happy if Trump attempts to impose a Munich on Ukraine and you have already referred to the money power in relation to tariffs.
As to the constitutional succession – Trump can be impeached but that would need his popularity to crater, I dont know if they can do a double header, ie him and Vance but if it got bad enough I am sure it could be arranged.
After an anti-war candidate won Romania’s presidential election, the election was overturned with the support of the EU, and the winner has now been banned from the re-run. This is what NATO’s “defense of democracy” has come to.
meher baba says:
Monday, March 10, 2025 at 7:48 am
PS: response to paul A last night.
My current personal obsession with Trump is not TDS: it is fuelled by what he is doing to the world ATM, including me personally as a self-funded retiree whose economic well-being has already been damaged by his ridiculous economic policies.
I assume Paul A is referring to his superannuation… smart ( & conservative ) money was get out of shares & into cash bank deposits.. zero risk & all you might do is forego some profit.. obvious choice
The expected gains for the Coalition are as follows:
NSW – Robertson, Gilmore, Bennelong, Paterson, Parramatta
Victoria – Aston, McEwen, Chisholm, Kooyong, Dunkley
Queensland – Ryan
NT – Lingiari
WA – Tangney, Curtin
So a minimum 14 seats gained (not counting ex-LNP MPs) off a base of 57; 2 off the Teals, 11 off Labor and 1 off the Greens
Resulting in 71 seats for the Coalition and probably more (they will probably win a couple out of Shortland, Bruce, Hunter, Corangamite, Solomon, Boothby)
At an absolute BARE MINIMUM the Coalition can form government with Katter, Dai Le, Sharkie and one of other independents
More likely it will be a Coalition majority government
Now that parliament hasn’t been dissolved for April election it isn’t too late for a leadership challenge to save the furniture – but who’s going to be the sacrificial-lamb/lame-duck PM?
Just quickly to meher baba,
paul A is simply one of those ‘black shirted’ thugs deployed by Authoritarian despots, and their putative Authoritarian fellow travellers, to enforce the rules and the rule he is attempting to enforce by berating us as having TDS, is that there will be no criticism of the Dear Deranged Leader. It’s just Double Speak by way of beginning to enforce that rule, which will become more actively pursued should the global Authoritarian Alliance, of which he is a fulsome supporter, gets to rule over us. The ‘mild’ criticism of us as having ‘TDS’ today, but a more thoroughgoing enforcement directed at us down the line, should the things he wants to happen come to pass.
Good morning, all.
Newspoll WOW!
The more people see of Albanese, the more they like him.
The more they see of Dutton’s money grubbing history, the less they like him.
Which reminds me.
Apart from slagging the prime minister while the latter is at the storm front helping Australians, has Dutton surfaced since his cockroach money raid?
Boerwar:
It didn’t translate into votes!
Abbott never had a positive net rating as LOTO, yet he waltzed into the PM post.
Geoffrey Epstein,
The initial winner of Romania’s election was a Putin puppet who got there via a massive Russian interference effort. The Romanian courts rightly discovered this and disqualified him from running again.
Not all democratic elections are good elections these days ipso facto, especially as far as Russian interference is concerned.
What is Dutton going to do about his Musk Lite – the efficiency Tsar who efficiently found time to snag $11,000 of the taxpayers’ ready and who is still under investigation for doing efficient roadie for her oppo – again on the taxpayer.
Price may have taken her inspiration from Ley who wangled the taxpayers’ ready to do some property speculation on the Goldie.
And Ley may have taken HER inspiration from Dutton’s 26 property deals in 35 years.
Talk about a Liberal Party grubby money bubble.
Is Dutton worth the risk?
So just how hamfisted and tin eared is Peter Dutton? Quite a lot, according to this Sean Carney article.
He catalogs 4 recent – meaning the last 2 weeks – political mistakes Dutton has made:
1. Bank shares profits during the GFC, and Dutton’s response saying he was ‘aspirational’
2. Closely followed by prioritising Justin Hemmes fund raiser in a Sydney mansion over flood preparedness
3. The hamfisted order to cancel working from home arrangements for public servants, raising industrial relations as an issue from it being dormant
4. The barely disguised aping of Donald Trump exposes Dutton’s tin ear. The people are aghast with what is going on in our treaty partner, but not Dutton..
The fourth moment also related to this issue of representing Australia. In recent weeks, Dutton had made progress in distancing himself from Donald Trump. After the dubious decision to call Trump a “big thinker”, Dutton expressed support for Ukraine, lamented the White House confrontation with Volodomyr Zelensky, and said he’d lobby Trump. But then Sky host Chris Kenny put to Dutton that he must be pleased Europe was stepping up on Ukraine. Dutton said he was but added, somewhat oddly, “and I think, frankly, President Trump can claim credit for that.”
And does it matter that this string of gaffes from Dutton have occurred prior to the campaign starting? With most now getting information from asynchronous channels – where the timestamp immediacy is no longer controlling the narrative, the mounting Dutton mistakes are a gift to those who believe Peak Dutton was reached two weeks ago.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/dutton-just-had-his-worst-two-weeks-as-leader-a-later-election-can-only-help-him-20250309-p5li61.html
Chumps Soft Coup…
“They want to know if we’re in a constitutional crisis. So this is my answer. And I realize this is like, it strikes some people, I think, as too legalistically formal and not emotionally satisfying.
I don’t think we’re in a constitutional crisis. I think the constitutional crisis is at a point, not where Donald Trump is doing unconstitutional things, which he is, not at the point at which he is violating the law, which he is, but at the point that his administration refuses to comply with court orders. And though they are clearly playing a game of cat and mouse with a number of these courts where they are ordered to do something, they’re not actually saying, Your Honor, we’re simply not abiding by your order.
They’re saying, oh, we didn’t think your order covered this, or we thought we were abiding by your order, or, you know. And some of that is disingenuous. But to me, the constitutional crisis comes when a judge says, you are in contempt, and the DOJ lawyer says, my client doesn’t care, and we’re simply not going to abide by those orders.”
From Defending Democracy: The United States is in a “Soft Coup” | Joyce Vance, 10 Mar 2025
https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/defending-democracy/id1660317917?i=1000698464502&r=204
This material may be protected by copyright.
Personally I believe American Democracy is dead, buried & cremated.. just waiting for eulogy to be published.
Scromo
The only changes in the Newspoll that are well beyond the MOE in that Newspoll are the net sats and the preferred prime minister.
People are finally taking a good hard look at Dutton.
And they are discovering that he is a Nasty Grubby Trump Groupie who kicks down, sucks up and grabs money on the way through.
By way of contrast people are starting to see the real Albanese: a decent person and a steady hand who is good in a crisis.
It is not too late for the Liberals to swap Dutton for someone decent… if they have anyone decent left. He is dooming them to another three years of opposition.
Re Newspoll: it’s a bit of a surprise to me. I really thought that the damage that Trump is doing to the right wing political “brand” would have pushed the 2pp needle a little more towards Labor.
But then, perhaps the 2pp figure in all of the polls is a little less reliable than it once was. We have long known that respondent-allocated preferences are not the best guide. And, given that we seem to be in the midst of a trend away from the major parties, it seems possible that the good old fallback of using preference distributions based on what happened at the last election might also becoming less reliable.
There is clearly a large and growing group of voters in the “middle” who are intending to give their first preferences to a third party or an independent and who really don’t have much of a preference for Labor over the Coalition or vice versa. But my growing suspicion is that, if push comes to shove, enough of these will go for the status quo to end up giving Labor slightly more than 50 per cent 2pp: probably not enough for outright government, but enough to be in the box seat to form a minority government. In many electorates, we are probably looking at these people giving their eight or ninth or umpteenth preference to Labor, but still putting them ahead of the Coalition. I feel that Albo’s surprisingly good showing in the Newspoll PPM result is indicative that something like this might happen. We’re talking about people voting on the basis of “better the devil you know”: especially with Trump making the world so uncertain.
When the “meh” feeling among a large part of the electorate is so strong, and the preferences for one major party over the other are only perceivable at a highly subterranean level, I don’t believe polling methodologies are going to be sufficiently callibrated to accurately assess the underlying 2pp.
This is not partisan hack stuff on my part. I think Albo is a poor leader and it is not surprising that he struggling more than any PM should be doing towards the end of their first term. And I’ll be very surprised if he wins a second term of majority government. (Pleasantly surprised, because I think minority governments are even less effective that most majority governments.)
I’m simply sceptical that the Coalition is doing quite so well as the polls are suggesting.
Geoffrey Epstein says:
Monday, March 10, 2025 at 7:57 am
Kremlin-line propaganda….more and more disinformation from Putin’s local troll service.
Of course they said the outcome was “foreign interference”, but how do you know it’s true – because the people overturning an election said so? What do you expect someone to say when they want to overturn an election? Have you considered what the claim actually means? Have you wondered what the evidence is? Do you ever spend more than five seconds thinking about anything?
BW
I see Angus Taylor being talked up in the media – obviously positioning for post election fallout, but if the bottom falls out of Dutton’s numbers, it may not be too late for a ‘save the furniture’ Liberal leadership change.
I suspect sweet talking Angus would do better with a potentially burgeoning Teal crossbench in negotiations, than Dutton – who has insulted this group personally, and through policies antithetical to the Teal core beliefs.