12:07pm Tuesday Wikipedia shows the popular votes as well as the points system used (100 points for each of the 343 electorates, for a total of 34,300). Carney won 86.8% of the membership vote out of nearly 152,000 total votes and 85.9% of the points.
9:37am Carney has been elected Liberal leader and will replace Trudeau as PM, after winning a first round majority. Carney won 85.9% of the vote, a bigger share than Trudeau in 2013 (a bit over 80%).
9:04am Monday The CBC has a live blog on the Liberal convention happening now that will announce the winner.
Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.
I covered today’s Canadian federal Liberal leadership election in late January and mid-February. Preferential voting is used, with each of Canada’s 343 electorates having 100 points and those points assigned in proportion to votes in that electorate. With a total of 34,300 points, 17,151 are needed for a majority. This system skews towards electorates with relatively few registered Liberal voters.
Voting commenced on February 26 and ends at 6am AEDT Monday, with results to be announced in Ottawa. The winner will replace Justin Trudeau as Liberal leader and PM. Parliament, where the Liberals don’t hold a majority, will resume on March 23 after it was prorogued for the leadership election. The next Canadian federal election is due by October, but it could be held earlier.
Mark Carney, former governor of the Bank of Canada and Bank of England, had 68% among Liberal supporters in a February Léger poll, but a Mainstreet poll gave him only a 43-31 lead over former deputy PM Chrystia Freeland. Carney also has a big lead in endorsements.
All Canadian general elections use first past the post. The CBC Poll Tracker was updated Wednesday. The Conservatives lead the centre-left Liberals by 40.3-30.8, with 14.4% for the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP), 6.8% for the left-wing separatist Quebec Bloc (BQ) (29.1% in Quebec), 4.2% for the Greens and 2.5% for the far-right People’s. Seet estimates are 171 of 343 Conservatives, one short of a majority, 125 Liberals, 31 BQ, 14 NDP and two Greens.
Éric Grenier’s commentary said that polls taken in the last week are not showing the Liberal surge that was seen previously, with a Léger poll giving the Conservatives a 13-point lead, up from three points. However, polls used by the Tracker don’t include Carney in the readout; if they did it would be closer. An EKOS poll that is not yet included in the Tracker gave the Liberals a five-point lead, up from one in the previous EKOS poll.
Conservatives easily win third successive term in Ontario
Ontario is Canadia’s most populous province. At the February 27 election that was held about 15 months early, the Conservatives won 80 of the 124 seats (down three since the 2022 election), the NDP 27 seats (down four), the Liberals 14 (up six) and the Greens two (steady). Conservative Doug Ford became the first premier to win three successive majorities since 1959.
Vote shares were 43.0% Conservatives (up 2.1%), 30.0% Liberals (up 6.1%), 18.6% NDP (down 5.2%) and 4.8% Greens (down 1.1%). Despite the third place in popular votes over 11% behind the Liberals, the NDP won 13 more seats than the Liberals.
US, Austria and Germany
Sadly, FiveThirtyEight has been shut down by US ABC news. However, Nate Silver now has an aggregate of Donald Trump’s approval in US national polls. Trump is at net +0.8 (48.1% approve, 47.3% disapprove). At this stage of his presidency, Trump’s net approval is worse than for any other president going back to Truman, except Trump’s first term.
Special elections (by-elections in Australia) will occur on April 1 in two federal House Republican-held Florida seats. At the 2024 election, Republicans won both these seats by 32-33 points. Republicans hold the House by 218-215, so winning both these special elections will return them to the 220-215 result in 2024.
Austria uses proportional representation with a 4% threshold. At the September 29 election, the far-right FPÖ won 57 of the 183 seats (up 26 since 2019), the conservative ÖVP 51 (down 20), the centre-left SPÖ 41 (up one), the liberal NEOS 18 (up three) and the Greens 16 (down ten). A coalition government of ÖVP, SPÖ and NEOS was formed on March 2, five months after the election.
A week after the February 23 German federal election, where the centre-left SPD finished third behind the far-right AfD and conservative CDU/CSU, a state election was held in Hamburg using PR with a 5% threshold. The SPD won 45 of the 121 seats (down nine since 2020), the CDU 26 (up 11), the Greens 25 (down eight), the Left 15 (up two) and the AfD ten (up three). Despite the losses, the SPD and Greens easily won enough seats for a combined majority.
[‘…the Liberals surge back in Canadian federal polls.’]
Trump has at last done something useful.
I posted this on the main site to emphasize how bizarre is the Australian process of choosing political leaders.
If I were one of the army of volunteers who do all the door-knocking, phoning, manning polling stations, setting up sausage sizzles, stuffing envelopes, putting up corflutes and election signs, I think I might be worthy of having some say in who the leader of the party is going to be.
Surely the idea of a small group in the caucus room, with all of the machinations that involves, is past it’s best by date. The leadership circus of the ALP and the Coalition 10 years ago indicates how destabilizing it is, not to mention undemocratic.
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“This is how a modern democratic political party chooses its leader. In this case, Canada’s Liberal party is choosing the next Prime Minister to succeed Justin Trudeau on Sunday.
The members of the Liberal party who do all the ground work during an election campaign actually have a choice in who will lead them. Not just a small group of MP’s in the caucus room, a feature of Australia’s recent unstable leadership dramas.
After declaring their candidacy in January, the candidates embarked on a cross-country tour to attract support from grass-roots Liberal party supporters. They then participated in English and French debates.
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“Under the procedure outlined by the party’s constitution, all registered Liberals will be eligible to vote directly for leader by preferential ballot as long as they have been registered at least 41 days before the day of the leadership vote.
To be eligible to register as a Liberal, and thus be permitted to vote, one must be a Canadian citizen, permanent resident of Canada, or have status under the Indian Act; not be a member of another political party; and be a minimum of 14 years old
As of the January 27, 2025 registration deadline, there are approximately 400,000 registered voters eligible to cast ballots.
To be nominated, a candidate must collect 300 signatures from registered Liberals, including at least 100 from three different provinces or territories]
Candidates are required to pay a $350,000 entrance fee to run. The fee is to be paid in four installments between January 23 and February 17 with only the initial $50,000 installment being refundable]
Votes will be weighted, with each electoral district being allocated 100 points, and with points in a district allocated in proportion to each candidate by the number of first-preference votes received.
• February 24, 2025 – The French debate is held in Montreal.
• February 25, 2025 – The English debate is held in Montreal.
• February 26, 2025, 8 a.m. (EST) – Voting period begins.
• March 9, 2025 – Voting period ends at 3 p.m. (EDT). Voting results announced at an event in Ottawa
To win, 17,151 points are required. If no candidate receives a majority of points on the first count, the candidate with the fewest points will be eliminated and their votes will be distributed in each electoral district among the remaining leadership contestants according to the next preference indicated.
This process would then continue until one candidate has received a majority of points.” WIKIPEDIA “
beguiledagain
Probably better than party members voting.
Which gave the UK Tories Liz Truss, and now Kemi Badenoch – as an outsider I would think both were very bad choices for their party
How is it possible to have a Democracy with first past the post voting?
Rocket Rocket says:
Sunday, March 9, 2025 at 7:18 pm
beguiledagain
Probably better than party members voting.
Which gave the UK Tories Liz Truss, and now Kemi Badenoch – as an outsider I would think both were very bad choices for their party
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Ah the Poms.
Using Canada as an example once more, in the last 77 years.
The Liberal Party members chose:
Louis St. Laurent, Prime Minister for 9 years. International statesman,
Lester Pearson, Prime Minister for 5 years. Nobel Peace Prize winner. Introduced the new Canadian flag and gave “everything bulk-billed” REAL Medicare to Canadians in a minority Parliament.
Pierre Trudeau, Prime Minister for 15 years. Enough said.
Jean Chretien, Prime Minister for 10 years.
Justin Trudeau, Prime Minister for 10 years.
Not a bad bunch. See any turkeys there? They must have been doing something right.
The only other Liberal leader was John Turner who succeeded Pierre Trudeau and was defeated by Brian Mulroney, the shady Tory PM who accepted hundreds of thousands of dollars from a lobbyist in brown paper envelopes and didn’t declare it.
Sceptic says:
Sunday, March 9, 2025 at 7:40 pm
How is it possible to have a Democracy with first past the post voting?
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You’re absolutely right.
I will always mark Justin down for not following through on his campaign promise in 2015 to put an end to FPTP. He had a majority and could have made the change without too much trouble.
For the life of me I’ll never understand why the Liberals never went ahead with it. If they had, in progressive Canada, the Liberals with the NDP, the Greens and perhaps the BLoc Quebecois from time to time, would effectively freeze out the Tories.
French Catholics with their civilizing effect on an Angloid polity
beguiledagain
So is the Canadian Liberals’ system more akin to a Primary in US? As in, can voters choose to be on the electoral roll registered as Liberal, Conservative, NDP etc?
Whereas the UK Tories it is just the ?60,000 party members voting, who are very unrepresentative, even of Tory voters.
beguiledagain,
It is the Labor Party branch members who now also get a say in who our federal parliamentary leader should be, as well as the Caucus.
Geoffrey Epstein says:
Sunday, March 9, 2025 at 9:18 pm
Not a bad bunch. See any turkeys there? They must have been doing something right.
French Catholics with their civilizing effect on an Angloid polity
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Yes. It also demonstrates what a model Canada is for the world in tolerance.
It’s impressive that the two founding peoples have lived peacefully together (except for very occasional incidents) for more than 150 years. Bilingual, bicultural and now multicultural.
Those leaders from minority Quebec have also had to have been able to relate to the majority of Anglos and of course the diverse population of recent generations.
You get some idea of what sort of country it is in the choice of head of state, Governor General.
In the past 25 years, four Governors General have been women. Two of them came to Canada as refugees, from China and from Haiti. The current vice-regal officer is an Inuit woman.
Rocket Rocket says:
Sunday, March 9, 2025 at 9:36 pm
beguiledagain
So is the Canadian Liberals’ system more akin to a Primary in US? As in, can voters choose to be on the electoral roll registered as Liberal, Conservative, NDP etc?
Whereas the UK Tories it is just the ?60,000 party members voting, who are very unrepresentative, even of Tory voters.
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No, not like the primary system. As I understand it, if you sign up as a member of the Liberal Party and register you can vote. I don’t think there is any blood test to determine if you share the party’s values.
As I said, if you look at the record, you can’t help but be impressed with the results in Canada.
C@tmomma says:
Sunday, March 9, 2025 at 9:49 pm
beguiledagain,
It is the Labor Party branch members who now also get a say in who our federal parliamentary leader should be, as well as the Caucus.
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Yes, thank you for pointing that out.
I understand that there have been recent changes to reflect that. But doesn’t the caucus still outweigh the branch members.
Perhaps you could refresh my memory on how Albo was elected. Was it one person one vote which is where I’m coming from.
beguiledagain, I don’t think the last Aus federal Labor leadership was contested, so Albo won unopposed after Shorten resigned after the 2019 election. Shorten and Albo contested in 2013, and Shorten won a bigger share of Labor’s caucus than Albo with the membership. It’s 50-50 weighting between caucus and members.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D3uOXXGjb6g
So the Germans are going to try and adjust the debt break before the new parliament sits. Very abnormal.
Canadian Leadership Convention Live – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u-xmSZgHl64
Mark Carney romped home with a massive 85% of the vote.
beguiledagain says:
Monday, March 10, 2025 at 11:26 am
B. S. Fairman says:
Monday, March 10, 2025 at 10:14 am
Mark Carney – “You can’t stand up to Trump if you are kneeling at the altar of Trump
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The actual quote was even better than that, describing his forthcoming Conservative opponent Pierre Poilievre:
“A person who worships at the altar of Donald Trump, will kneel before him, not stand up to him.”
Does that remind you of someone else. Name starts with a D. Does that help.
Connect the dots.
“New Prime Minister of Canada PICKED! Who is he??” | J.J. McCullough
https://youtu.be/4PT1922ye1w?si=gRSR3DybkCrutNuw
It’ll probably be the case that Carney would call a snap election shortly. Otherwise since he doesn’t have a seat in parliament, it might be awkward if he has to do a Campbell Newman and direct his party from the gallery when it resumes at the end of March.
The Australian Democrats had membership elections for leader and the membership kept voting for people the party room didn’t want to work with… so there is a danger to that model. I quite like a hybrid system where the party room is 50% of the vote and the membership is 50%. That way both sides kind of have a veto.
The Liberal Party of Canada also has 500,000 members so that kind of mainstream grassroots participation is way beyond any Australian party.
Eric Grenier and his friend Phillipe can analyse the numbers to death and conclude that the Conservatives are still ahead in Canada, but the reality is obvious: the Liberals, under new leader Mark Carney, are favourites to win the 2025 federal general election in Canada.
A very, very, historically remarkable turnaround in the polls over a period of just 6-8 weeks.
Carney will call the election imminently while he is still fresh and new and leading in PM polls vs. Poilievre, before he picks up too much baggage. He will definitely not wait until October. And, incredibly, I believe at this point he will win with a majority (currently it’s a minority-led government).
Though I wouldn’t count Poilievre out just yet. Carney’s got some good lines against him, but I can see Poilievre winning actual debates with Carney and he’s a wily opponent.
But as someone said above, Trump – or more to the point his tariffs and the rhetoric around them – have transformed everything. Even a Trudeau-led Liberal party would after all have stood a decent chance of winning the 2025 election – though I’m not sure his approval numbers would have gone up so much (or his party’s VI) if he had not already done ‘the right thing’ in the eyes of the electorate by resigning, so in a sense his resignation was what provided the launchpad for their exponential turnaround.
As well as the Special/By-elections in the USA taking place over this year, there’s also the significant off-year state elections in Virginia and New Jersey.
The likely candidates for Virginia Governor (currently held by Republican Glenn Youngkin, who is term-limited and can’t run this time) appear to be Abigail Spanberger (D) and Winsome Earle-Sears (R). Polling has Spanberger leading over Earle-Sears, the latest one being 46-40. Primaries will be held on 17 June.
In New Jersey the incumbent Phil Murphy (D) is also term-limited, and the likely candidates at the moment there are Jack Ciattarelli (R), while the Democrats appear to be holding a hotly contested primary, with polling and fundraising closely spread between Mikie Sherill, Ras Baraka, Steve Sweeney, Josh Gottheimer, Steven Fulop and Sean Spiller. The primaries will be held on 10 June.
There’s also the significant New York City Mayoral election, which has former Governor Andrew Cuomo holding the lead in that.