The Poll Bludger’s long-awaited federal election guide is now in action. It’s outwardly similar to this site’s past such guides but, in very real if not immediately apparent ways, better. A beginner’s guide:
• There is a page for each of the 150 lower house electorates, featuring overviews of their history and demographic profiles, candidate lists that are as up-to-date as I can make it (an ongoing task) with write-ups for those deemed competitive, an interactive map display with booth results from the 2022 election (which opens if you click the “activate” button at the bottom of the post, chart and tabular table of the 2022 results, historical charts showing party votes going back to 2001, and a number of charts recording the electorate’s demographic indicators. The historical vote charts now include primary as well as two-party preferred, which took some doing. One of the ways you can get all this is through a map-based landing page which also contains what could loosely be described as a pendulum.
• Margins and party vote shares are based on my own determinations where redistributions have been held, namely New South Wales, Victoria, Western Australia and the Northern Territory, and will thus differ from those of the ABC and the AEC. To follow on from this rather arcane earlier post discussing the various approaches taken by practitioners of electoral science in estimating support for independent members in areas where they weren’t on the ballot paper last time, some further explanation is warranted for the margins shown in five seats where independents made the final counts in 2022 and where the boundaries have changed: Fowler, Wentworth, Goldstein, Kooyong and Wannon. I have implemented a new method of estimating latent independent support to add to those described in the earlier post (by the AEC, Antony Green, Ben Raue, and me on my first go), in which statistical models have been developed to predict teal vote share based on the Indigenous Voice yes vote and various demographic variables. We seem to be in fairly close accord in most cases, but are all over the shop with Wentworth (UPDATE: Which turns out to be a tabulation error on my parts, which I’ve now corrected).
• There is also Senate guide featuring an overview page and individual pages for the six states and two territories, along similar lines to the aforementioned lower house seat pages.
• An overview page reviews the 2022 result, explains a few of the basics, considers where the election might be won, lost or fought to a draw, and has chart and table displays of results from last time and election past.
• The BludgerTrack poll aggregate now has a home under the roof of the federal election guide.
This seems to amount to around 80,000 words on top of all the coding and data aggregation that was required, and much of it constitutes preliminary work for the live results that will feature on this site on election night and beyond, which I humbly submit will put all its rivals in the shade. To this point, all I have to show for all this is satisfaction with a job well done: if you think something more is deserved, donations are gratefully received through the “become a supporter” button at the top of the site and at the bottom of each post.
While we’re here, some polling loose ends:
• The weekly Roy Morgan poll has the Coalition with an unchanged 52-48 lead on respondent-allocated preferences, but in from 52-48 to 51-49 based on 2022 election preference flows. The primary votes are Labor 29.5% (up one), Coalition 40.5% (down one-and-a-half), Greens 11.5% (down one-and-a-half) and One Nation 6% (up two). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1567.
• Further results from last week’s Resolve Strategic poll show 61% support for keeping January 26 as the date for Australia Day, substantially up from 47% when the same question was asked two years ago, with opposition down from 39% to 24%. There remains a marked generational effect, with respective numbers of 35% and 42% for those 18-to-34 and 79% and 12% for 55-plus. Fifty-two per cent expressed support for Peter Dutton’s proposal to enshrine the date in law, with 24% opposed.
Ireland has preferential voting, albeit in multi-member electorates. For 100 years there was a bitterly contested duopoly largely based on whose grandfather tied whose grandfather to the land mine.
A diversity of political parties led to the combined first preferences of the duopoly being little more than 40%.
The possibility of someone outside the duopoly gaining power concentrated their leaders minds and within days the 100 years of hatred were forgotten and they have been best mates on the front bench for the last 5 years.
Given the commentary on Keating having a retainer with Pratt, one of Australia’s business leaders courtesy of their family business model including trading in the USA, what about ANZ offering employment to Birmingham (or before that NAB to Baird) as but an example?
Do you see the “Labor types” encouraging that you transfer your business from ANZ or NAB on the basis of these appointments?
No
It only comes from the Tories and their Greens
And there are many, many other instances dating back to Doug Antony and his son
The ONLY reason I contribute this is to draw attention to the criticism being of Keating but not others of different political stripes entering private enterprise after their political careers (who employs Morrison or Abbott?)
Keating I would offer contributes to Pratt’s business model with his expertise and in a frank and fearless manner
From my knowledge, Keating is no “yes man”
And every enterprise needs a recalcitrant, at least
Rex Douglassays:
Sunday, February 2, 2025 at 7:53 pm
You ok Taylomade?
_____________________
Thanks for asking, it is chaos down here.
Am ok here, but Waurn Ponds community Facebook page says SES responding to 154 requests for help and for people to be patient.
It’s about to start again according to the BOM radar and looks worse than the earlier storm. Lots of thunder happening.
Hmmmmm Victoria is currently on blackout alert it’s having three hot days in a row.
Sub 20 primary would be due to ignoring developments on the gas front.Day 1 over but industry back tomorrow for day 2 watch state gov shut down some.
A negative feedback loop or 20 is crunching Victoria so a blackout cannot be ruled out sadly under the socialists.
Two independent nutjobs want to be able to smoke a joint in parliament when legislation they supported gets through.True one of todays papers in VIC.!
Our tight-wingers are praying for blackouts.
Confessions
Jo Dyer Nd the Shot crew do a regular podcast that is downloadable on podcasting Aps like Overcast. Well worth a listen and free.
A grand coalition is possible, probably even likely in the not too distant future, there is not much separating the major parties in reality. Once that happens though their time is truly up because then the whole facade of being 2 distinct parties would collapse for real among the general public which will hurt them both so they’ll try and avoid that outcome for as long as is realistically possible.
Pretty amazing that Dutton is trying to get away without announcing any spending cuts before the election – saying they’ll be done once they get in.
Its indicative that the Libs feel they dont need to and the weakness of the Govt in that they can’t even get traction on an obvious point like this.
Steve777says:
Sunday, February 2, 2025 at 8:47 pm
Our right-wingers are praying for blackouts.
_____________________
Have got the candles out ready.
This storm is intense.
OC
Yep (:
On the other hand, the two centre right parties have probably not done too bad a job in getting Ireland from where it was in 1979, when Pope John Paul II visited*, to when Pope Francis visited in 2018, by which time Ireland had both legal abortion and legal gay marriage.
Softly, softly catchee monkey?
I do not know. But following the family history in Ireland, and now actually writing it up, I still cannot get over the miracle of the Celtic tiger.
Since circa 1980 (when they discovered contraception) they must have done something right?
“ Yes I saw them. Increasingly, PJK’s public commentary makes me feel a bit nauseous.”
_________
Good. Maybe it will act as a form of Ipicac to the Tory mind virus you are suffering from Meher.
As for your assertion that he’s only saying stuff because he’s in the pay of the CCP, or at least has business interests in China, he’s come out and flat out denied that.
Anyhoo, Pratt little earners aside he’s made most of his money in investing in a small Aussie owned start up 20 years ago – Boost Mobile – and cashed in when the founder – Peter Adderton – sold it off to Telstra last month.
You can’t get your feeble mind around the fact that Taiwan is a construct of the losing side of the Chinese civil war and propped up as an American fly in the ointment. You can’t grasp the basic fact that America’s only interest in the fate of Taiwan is as a mechanism to contain China in the event it wants to invade or blockade China. Its people are mere pawns to sucker useful fools like you into agreeing to stupid things – like suborning Australia’s natural National Interests into another round of yankee bullshitfuckery.
Keating is right: Taiwan is not Australia’s strategic concern.
I have finally had the chance to closely examine the activities of the betting market.
The last time I reported the market percentages read as follows:
Coalition 59.5%
Labor 40.5%
In the time since, inflation data had been released and bookmakers reacted accordingly by firming the chances for Labor to, I believe, around 44%.
However, the very latest betting reads as follows:
Coalition 58%
Labor 42%
Extraordinarily, support that had been expected for Labor has come for the Coalition.
The bookmakers are taking very little risk with the Coalition. At this stage, I am predicting one word for the Labor Superfans going forward….. PAIN.
As trump unleashes his trade war China sheets the fentanyl problem to where it belongs.
“the foreign ministry in Beijing said: “Fentanyl is America’s problem. ”
It appears Beijing is correct.. Americans seek to blame others for their own problems…
Mexican drug cartels are the leaders in fentanyl production. Two organizations, the Sinaloa Cartel, and the Jalisco New Generation Cartel, manage most of the production and distribution networks, often depending on American citizens to smuggle fentanyl across the border. Between 2017 and 2021, 86 percent of fentanyl traffickers were American citizens.
In 2021, U.S. citizens were 86.3 percent of convicted fentanyl drug traffickers—ten times greater than convictions of illegal immigrants for the same offense.
Over 90 percent of fentanyl seizures occur at legal crossing points or interior vehicle checkpoints, not on illegal migration routes, so U.S. citizens (who are subject to less scrutiny) when crossing legally are the best smugglers.
https://www.cato.org/blog/fentanyl-smuggled-us-citizens-us-citizens-not-asylum-seekers
“ I don’t have an AFR subscription, but this seems on the money with today’s PK.
Such a shame.”
______
Meher’s tory mind virus seems to be infecting you fess. That’s the shame.
I deliberately avoid Insiders these days but have been reading Dutton’s comments in this ABC article.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-02-02/peter-dutton-vows-to-cut-government-spending/104886686
To me this interview gives Labor a golden opportunity to attack Dutton. Between further tax cuts, nuclear power and probably weakening Labor’s efforts to rein in corporate tax avoidance, the Liberals will have to make public service cuts or blow out debt or both.
Dutton might think himself “clever” by not saying where. But now Labor can validly say Dutton might cut anywhere. Medicare? Why not? Education? Probably. Welfare benefits? Sure. Public housing? He would love to cut it.
Dutton is closely ideologically aligned with Abbott. There is no reason to believe Dutton if PM would hesitate to make any of the cuts Abbott made in 2014/15.
Lars Von Triersays:
Sunday, February 2, 2025 at 8:58 pm
Pretty amazing that Dutton is trying to get away without announcing any spending cuts before the election – saying they’ll be done once they get in.
Its indicative that the Libs feel they dont need to and the weakness of the Govt in that they can’t even get traction on an obvious point like this.
——-
Yep it’s quite damning on the strength of Labor’s frontbench generally that they lack the gumption to even successfully prosecute the political equivalent of a free hit.
mj
I think that you have very different priorities to me.
The difference between the ALP and Coalition on addressing climate change and the fast adoption of renewable energy is measured in light years.
Peter Dutton pretends to have a nuclear energy plan, but this plan will in reality mean spending taxpayers money on keeping coal-fired power plants open well beyond their lifetimes.
And, Dutton has also said, very clearly, that he will reduce the amount of renewable energy that we currently have. How will he even do this? Some sort of Musk / Trump email to the owners / workers of renewable energy projects offering them a few months of profits / wages if they just wind down / resign now?
Our economic need to adapt to the fact that the world is transitioning to renewable energy and that any country that does not do this will be left far behind economically is urgent.
But sure, vote for Dutton, it will make no difference to Australia’s future.
If memory serves me correctly PJK made some 10’s of millions some decades ago from a company called Lake Technology that was involved with digital signal technology which was sold to Dolby.
Correct D&M
Then the small matter of Labor presenting at Fair Work Australia in National pay cases
For starters
D&M
That unfortunately sounds like a secular form of prosperity theology! I think Ireland more than Australia has been the lucky country for the last 50 years and the prosperity has been achieved despite rather than because of the rightist governments. Would a leftist government threaten this? Probably not.
Certainly it is a long way from De Valera’s “The Ireland that we Dreamed of” (now disparaged as “Comely maidens dancing at the cross-roads”)
The ideal Ireland that we would have, the Ireland that we dreamed of, would be the home of a people who valued material wealth only as a basis for right living, of a people who, satisfied with frugal comfort, devoted their leisure to the things of the spirit – a land whose countryside would be bright with cosy homesteads, whose fields and villages would be joyous with the sounds of industry, with the romping of sturdy children, the contest of athletic youths and the laughter of happy maidens, whose firesides would be forums for the wisdom of serene old age. The home, in short, of a people living the life that God desires that men should live.
Things are getting quite complicated in Prahran
Link: https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/ex-labor-mp-targets-greens-in-prahran-boosting-liberal-hopeful-s-bid-20250128-p5l7og.html
The Ex Labor member (Lupton) , is using Labor branch members to assist with his campaign. He now has the backing of the ex Premier Steve Bracks, as well as the right wing outfit “Advance Australia”, Lupton is placing the Libs at No.2 on his HTV card. Bracks quoted as saying, “I am not aware of Lupton’s preferences”. They were published on 22-Jan.
Animosity between the Greens and Labor has now reached Prahran.
It appears to be a “Get the Greens” campaign.
Will be a fascinating by-election.
For the record, I’m tipping a Lib pick up for this seat.
The Dutton budget strategy will be a hoot, save $billions in unknown spending cuts, cut 36000 public servants and other ‘efficiencies’ like the big ticket ‘welcome to country’ and extra flags, then spend hundred of billions on nuclear plants.
The superfans dont appreciate that off camera the 2 party duopoly has quite cordial relations. There was a glimpse in the friendly rapport recently seen between Dutton and Shorten.
It won’t be personalities who prevent the Grand Coalition – more working out who gets what. Its likely to be something like Labor PM, Liberal Treasurer or vice versa.
I think that PJK did make a pile out of his Lake investment, RP.
Perhaps not as much as from Boost though.
I look forward to the next set of opinion polls…
I wouldn’t be expecting them to read any more encouraging for Tennis Albo.
*night
Douglas and Milkosays:
Sunday, February 2, 2025 at 9:09 pm
I think that you have very different priorities to me.
The difference between the ALP and Coalition on addressing climate change and the fast adoption of renewable energy is measured in light years.
—–
We might do, certainly Labor is more pro-renewable energy but there are more important things in the minds of the average voter. If rapidly increasing numbers of people can’t afford to house themselves it’s unreasonable to expect them to vote for you.
Andrew Earlwood
“ Keating is right: Taiwan is not Australia’s strategic concern.”
——————————————————————
+1
You would think after blindly following the USA into four wars in Korea (justifiable, draw), Vietnam (unjustifiable, loss), Afghanistan (justifiable at first but not after 2011, loss) and Iraq (unjustifiable, loss) we might learn our lesson(s). Sadly not.
Lesson one. The original excuse for the war later turns out to have been false.
Lesson two. The USA mostly loses wars it starts on the basis of bad intelligence.
Lesson three. After the wars end, fears of the end of civilization after the USA leaves turn out to be false too.
Australia is, thanks to its remoteness, one of the safest places on earth. If we would learn to stop playing deputy sheriff we would be one of the safest peoples too.
Douglas and Milkosays:
Sunday, February 2, 2025 at 9:09 pm
Why didn’t you mention industry relations policy? Does, like, worker protection not even matter anymore?
Abbott famously denied there would be cuts to health, education, pensions, the abc etc.
https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/no-cuts-to-the-abc-or-sbs-abbott/2y6tkqtoj
I guess people were entitled, if naively, to take him at his word. Though more fool them.
Dutton says there are going to be cuts.
He won’t say to what.
If people think that’s ok, well vote Liberal.
And don’t complain when it comes to pass.
LVT
Rotating Prime Minister like Ireland’s rotating Taoiseach?
Labor can’t attack Dutton.
They don’t know how.
That Dutton is going to coast into government is a dismal reflection on the gutless cowards and cream puffs which make up Labor’s front bench.
They’re scared of Dutton.
Dutton knows it.
Lars Von Trier says:
Sunday, February 2, 2025 at 8:58 pm
Pretty amazing that Dutton is trying to get away without announcing any spending cuts before the election – saying they’ll be done once they get in.
Its indicative that the Libs feel they dont need to and the weakness of the Govt in that they can’t even get traction on an obvious point like this.
___________
This is a good point Lars. It is more honest for Dutton to say there will be cuts without saying where as opposed to Abbott promising not to cut 😉
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-07-28/no-cuts-to-abc-promise-check/5389220
Edit: I see Ross has already mentioned this
I’m really finding this hard to understand. At absolute worst, Labor should be no greater than even money. The Liberals have a giant task in front of them yet Ladbrokes have them at $1.62 Labor at $2.20. Very strange.
Ghost 51/49
I’m guessing punters are extrapolating current polling trends to project what might happen in a few months time in assessing the LNP to be favourites.
As for this Grand Coalition hypothetical, it is telling to see which posters are spruiking it 🙂
malcolm says:
Sunday, February 2, 2025 at 9:39 pm
Ghost 51/49
—————
Which poll malcolm?
Redbridge
There is already a grand coalition. It has been remarkably successful: Liberal and the Nationals.
malcolm
Who’s got the 51? Libs or Labor?
OC,
The asterisk in my post above about Ireland in 1979 was meant to point to a comment that I dod not make.
In the 1970s and 1980s, Ireland was quite poor and definitely priest-ridden. We sent money back to our relatives in Ballinacarriga in the 1970s, to help with funerals, headstones etc, and got photos in return. I was a teenager at the time, but I was shocked at how poor the family who had remained in Ireland was compared to those of us who found ourselves in the US or Australia.
In the 1980s and 1990s, Irish friends in Australia said that they were here to escape a theocracy, in the strongest terms. But even in the 2000s, I got the same comments. The young educated people felt that they could not live in Ireland under what they saw as a theocracy. At the time I wondered if it was that bad.
But, the death of an Irish dentist of Indian origin, Savita Halappanavar, after a partial miscarriage in 2012, when she was denied the normal (outside Ireland) care of having surgical intervention.
She was instead made to sit in a hospital in Galway, until she developed septicaemia, and died: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_of_Savita_Halappanavar#:~:text=Savita%20Halappanavar%20(née%20Savita%20Andanappa,was%20denied%20on%20legal%20grounds.
If I sound personally affronted, it is because I have strong research links with NUIG (National University of Ireland, Galway), and I was coming and going from 2007 until 2019, when COVID put a stop to physical travel, while women were being denied the basic life-saving treatment of having a surgical intervention for partial miscarriage. I mean WTF! The foetus cannot be saved – so why make the woman die?
Anyway all, sorry for the rant. I am very upset that this is exactly where the US is now heading.
I’ve just checked the ghostwhovotes “X” feed. It’s still quoting last week’s Newspoll.
51-49 to the LNP.
malcolm – what’s going on? Redbridge poll or are you playing games
Steve777says:
Sunday, February 2, 2025 at 8:47 pm
Our tight-wingers are praying for blackouts.
===============================================
Under an LNP Government there will be no lightning strikes on power transformers or substations. Nor any trees come down on powerlines in a storm. This is the sort of crap that right wingers are feeding us now.
Has anyone else seen Peter Dutton’s ‘I’m a really nice guy, I smile, I’m a family man, but I have buns of steel because I used to be a plod’ ad on TV yet?
I was bombarded with it every 10 minutes on channel 1112 while I was watching ‘Antiques Road Trip’ with my son!
Does he really think that will work for him?
Griffsays:
Sunday, February 2, 2025 at 9:40 pm
As for this Grand Coalition hypothetical, it is telling to see which posters are spruiking it
——–
You think you’re astute surprised this has passed your x-ray vision insight as a possible outcome.
He’d better not be. William takes a very dim view of that.
Sohar @ #1590 Sunday, February 2nd, 2025 – 4:37 pm
The 1929 reply aside, it’s not even true.
They had that after 2016 as well. And 2004.
Watching the Billy Joel concert from his Borough – which brings back memories
When I saw him again in Melbourne then with 4 small children in tow I said to them that you do not have to sit – you and get on your feet and dance and clap and carry on
But, back in the real World what will be the impact of the developments we read of on Equity Markets and Bond Yields?
The Trump effect is here so strap in and trust in your Fund Managers and their placements
We may be in for a savage period of time none of us can do anything about
Bystander @ #1696 Sunday, February 2nd, 2025 – 9:48 pm
It’s 100% last week’s Newspoll. Whoever ‘malcolm’ is he’s just trying to yank our chains and throw chum into the water. What makes people go for the bait so quickly?
So do I bystander.
Mafs has a eugenics wishing bride !
Then current affair advert comes on about a lady who had a dental procedure went to sleep and the Aussie now cannot get rid of a seriously English accent she got whilst asleep.
Oh Dear!