The Poll Bludger’s long-awaited federal election guide is now in action. It’s outwardly similar to this site’s past such guides but, in very real if not immediately apparent ways, better. A beginner’s guide:
• There is a page for each of the 150 lower house electorates, featuring overviews of their history and demographic profiles, candidate lists that are as up-to-date as I can make it (an ongoing task) with write-ups for those deemed competitive, an interactive map display with booth results from the 2022 election (which opens if you click the “activate” button at the bottom of the post, chart and tabular table of the 2022 results, historical charts showing party votes going back to 2001, and a number of charts recording the electorate’s demographic indicators. The historical vote charts now include primary as well as two-party preferred, which took some doing. One of the ways you can get all this is through a map-based landing page which also contains what could loosely be described as a pendulum.
• Margins and party vote shares are based on my own determinations where redistributions have been held, namely New South Wales, Victoria, Western Australia and the Northern Territory, and will thus differ from those of the ABC and the AEC. To follow on from this rather arcane earlier post discussing the various approaches taken by practitioners of electoral science in estimating support for independent members in areas where they weren’t on the ballot paper last time, some further explanation is warranted for the margins shown in five seats where independents made the final counts in 2022 and where the boundaries have changed: Fowler, Wentworth, Goldstein, Kooyong and Wannon. I have implemented a new method of estimating latent independent support to add to those described in the earlier post (by the AEC, Antony Green, Ben Raue, and me on my first go), in which statistical models have been developed to predict teal vote share based on the Indigenous Voice yes vote and various demographic variables. We seem to be in fairly close accord in most cases, but are all over the shop with Wentworth (UPDATE: Which turns out to be a tabulation error on my parts, which I’ve now corrected).
• There is also Senate guide featuring an overview page and individual pages for the six states and two territories, along similar lines to the aforementioned lower house seat pages.
• An overview page reviews the 2022 result, explains a few of the basics, considers where the election might be won, lost or fought to a draw, and has chart and table displays of results from last time and election past.
• The BludgerTrack poll aggregate now has a home under the roof of the federal election guide.
This seems to amount to around 80,000 words on top of all the coding and data aggregation that was required, and much of it constitutes preliminary work for the live results that will feature on this site on election night and beyond, which I humbly submit will put all its rivals in the shade. To this point, all I have to show for all this is satisfaction with a job well done: if you think something more is deserved, donations are gratefully received through the “become a supporter” button at the top of the site and at the bottom of each post.
While we’re here, some polling loose ends:
• The weekly Roy Morgan poll has the Coalition with an unchanged 52-48 lead on respondent-allocated preferences, but in from 52-48 to 51-49 based on 2022 election preference flows. The primary votes are Labor 29.5% (up one), Coalition 40.5% (down one-and-a-half), Greens 11.5% (down one-and-a-half) and One Nation 6% (up two). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1567.
• Further results from last week’s Resolve Strategic poll show 61% support for keeping January 26 as the date for Australia Day, substantially up from 47% when the same question was asked two years ago, with opposition down from 39% to 24%. There remains a marked generational effect, with respective numbers of 35% and 42% for those 18-to-34 and 79% and 12% for 55-plus. Fifty-two per cent expressed support for Peter Dutton’s proposal to enshrine the date in law, with 24% opposed.
Bad policy is not progressive. Support of destroying farmland and food bowls which drives up food prices, destroying national parks, koala and other animal and fauna habitats with ridiculous renewables only equipment which needs replacing every 10 or so years is not progressive.
I am yet to know of a so called progressive policy David Pocock has tabled or supported. Like the greens and teals, I find them to be regressive and harmful.
They are called the regressives, due to their fiscal illiteracy, support for bad economic, ridiculous environmental and bad social policy.
Thank you and WOW!
Will be invaluable.
Sad reading for Team Dutton – no wonder they so wanted to panic Albo to break his promise to go full term and call an early election.
An interest rate cut based on sustained lower inflation, supports the sound economic management on display. And this in a world where the Trump-inspired oligarchs like Gina Reinhardt are sooling Peter Dutton to replicate the chaos unfolding in Washington on us.
Why risk our steady recovery by electing proven economic dunces obsessed with imported culture wars.
Major banks close to consensus on February interest rate cut call
Cecile Lefort
Markets reporter
Jan 29, 2025 – 4.13pm
Three of the four major bank forecasters agree the Reserve Bank will cut interest rates in February after inflation slowed by more than expected, stoking hopes that the RBA will finally join the global monetary easing pulse.
Money markets imply a 95 per cent chance the RBA will deliver the first cash rate reduction in nearly five years at its policy meeting on February 18.
The big banks are almost unanimous about an interest rate cut next month.
That probability was 75 per cent before official data showed that trimmed mean inflation, the RBA’s preferred gauge, cooled to 3.2 per cent in the December quarter, from 3.6 per cent in the three months to September 30, undershooting economists’ forecasts for a 3.3 per cent result.
Importantly for the RBA, core inflation came in below its own 3.4 per cent projection.
ANZ, Commonwealth Bank and Westpac are unified in predicting February easing. National Australia Bank is reviewing its forecast; it anticipated May.
https://www.afr.com/markets/debt-markets/major-banks-close-to-consensus-on-february-interest-rate-cut-call-20250128-p5l7uh#:~:text=Three%20of%20the%20four%20major,the%20global%20monetary%20easing%20pulse.
Fantastic resource William, will enjoy exploring it all in anticipation of the big event. Greatly appreciated.
One small error in para 3 your narrative
some further explanation is warranted for the margins shown in five independent-held seats where the boundaries have changed: Fowler, Wentworth, Goldstein, Kooyong and Wannon.
Is there something about Dan Tehan in Wannon he is about to announce 🙂
Thankyou for showing all the primary votes
It is good to see all the political partys primary votes listed
Shows why it will be difficult for the federal lib/nats with a combined primary vote below 40% to be a chance of minority government with the liberal party primary vote in the mid 20%’s
William
Just wondering how Adam Bandt in Melbourne on +6.5% gets into the ‘safe’ column on the pendulum? Shouldn’t he be between Flinders and Capricornia in the ‘marginal’?
Many thanks William -brilliant work.
(Not sure if you are welcoming pedantry but Hunter has been Labor (or Lang Labour) since 1910 not 2010. This is in the first line but the detailed history has it right)
With the interest rates cut likely
which Angus Taylor will be seen
The one which will be nemesis to Peter Dutton leadership, which will call for the interest rates to rise and continue to claim inflation is too high , ignoring when under the former federal lib/nats government inflation was consistently over 6%+ and interest rates went up.
Or the Angus Taylor which will show why he
should be the federal liberal party and likely leader of the opposition , if Labor likely retains federal government
Sprocket you know what happens when u get so excited – disappointment follows.
I don’t want to see u get hurt again.
William thanks. The new Federal election format is excellent with information easy to reach. Great work!
For Sturt the Greens candidate is Katie McClusker. She is a former public servant and long time Greens party office worker and candidate. She came close in the last State election in Dunstan.
https://womensagenda.com.au/female-candidate/katie-mccusker/
Amazing work, William.
Great stuff. Thanks so much. Legend.
https://i.imgur.com/5Pe0YGX.jpeg


The Australian today is spending an inordinate amount of ink on attacking trans Australians – a very small population with much higher instances of mental health issues and self harm than the avg, but where they do engage in gender affirming surgery have regret rates substantially lower than that of other surgeries like a knee replacement (<1% : ~18%)
Wholesale electricity prices jump on coal outages and record demand in fresh bill threat – Colin Packham (The Australian $); In a piece about how a series of coal power generator failures in the last quarter of 2024 saw wholesale electricity prices soaring 80%, the journo spends over half the article bagging renewables which had no such outages.
Richard Marles ‘excited’ over defence ties with US – Ben Packham (The Australian $); Richard Marles says he is ‘excited’ to work with US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth after a phone call with his newly confirmed counterpart on Wednesday. Hegseth faces allegations of sexual misconduct, financial mismanagement and (well documented) public drunkenness.
Tanya Plibersek’s nature positive reforms push back on the legislative agenda – Rhiannon Down (The Australian $); Labor is renewing its push to pass legislation establishing an environmental watchdog in the final sitting fortnight before a federal election is called, after the reforms became blocked late last year when Anthony Albanese caved to pressure and killed a deal with the Greens.
February rate cut and April election in play after inflation drops – Michael Read and Phillip Coorey (AFR $); Read & Coorey report that Chalmers is upbeat after yesterdays figures showing headline inflation collapsed from 3.6 in the September quarter to 3.2 in December, and are pipping an April 12 election date.
Is this the end of the ‘smoko’ break? – David Marin-Guzman (AFR $); The industry responsible for the largest child labour force in the country is seeking to further degrade the entitlements of their low paid employees under the guise that they don’t smoke cigarettes anymore.
Huawei ban architect urges caution on DeepSeek security concerns – Tom McIlroy and Andrew Tillett (AFR $); Former Australian Signals Directorate deputy director-general reckons Chinese EVs are a bigger national security concern than Deepseek for their ability to hoover up data and send it to China.
Sarah Schwartz must be punished: The instrumentalisation of a dissenting Jew – Bernard Keane (Crikey $); After calling out Peter Dutton’s use of Australian Jews for his own political purposes, Sarah Schwartz has faced a concerted newscorp smear campaign of demonisation.
Dutton has the worldview of a Queensland cop, someone once wrote. We should take that seriously – Andrew Stafford (Crikey $); Author of Pig City, Andrew Stafford recalls the political tenure of Joe Bjelke-Petersen, and the associated corruption of the Queensland police force – and assesses that perhaps someone brought up in the wake of that may not have the most hospitable worldview.
NSW Police suspect caravan of explosives was meant for antisemitic attack – Rich James (Crikey $); The worm looks at today’s top story, a caravan full of explosives, at the Australian inflation data, and the US interest rate.
Chocolate Torte – Samantha Seneviratne (NYT Cooking $);
Torta caprese is a dark, rich almond and chocolate cake lifted only with whipped eggs. Originally from the Italian island of Capri, they’re usually made with raw almonds or almond flour.
I have spent more time than I realised this morning exploring this lovely new toy. Thank you William!
A tidy piece of work. Tysm WB
William
Thank you for the election guide. Even by your standards, it is a magnum opus!
Good Morning Dawn Patrollers!
We’ll start with the question on everyone’s lips. Will they or won’t they?
The biggest momentum on financial markets right now must surely be bets on the Reserve Bank cutting interest rates in February. If this was a horse race, a rate cut on February 18 is now looking like a punt on Black Caviar (who went 25 races undefeated).
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-01-29/has-the-rba-got-any-choice-but-to-cut-rates-in-february/104872364
The Reserve Bank is now trapped – and Anthony Albanese could not be happier with its predicament.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/cut-bullock-cut-inflation-figures-give-rba-no-choice-but-to-lower-rates-20250129-p5l7yd.html
Not assured though. KPMG chief economist Brendan Rynne cautioned a rate cut next month was not a done deal, noting core inflation was still above the RBA’s target band.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/rate-cut-on-the-cards-as-inflation-falls-to-2-4-per-cent-20250129-p5l7yb.html
The RBA had predicted the trimmed mean to rise 0.7 per cent for the quarter in its November forecast, although a surprise drop in housing costs had substantially lowered inflation expectations since. Though insurance rises are still a problem area.
https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/finance/finance-news/2025/01/29/inflation-fall-january-2025
Economists had forecast that a 3.2% reading would be enough to trigger a rate cut next month, offering relief to mortgage holders and representing a vote of confidence that high inflation levels were being reined in.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/jan/29/australias-underlying-inflation-rate-falls-to-32-to-bolster-case-for-rba-rate-cut-next-month
Greg Jericho believes: No more excuses: the time has come for the RBA to cut interest rates.
Failure to do so would be wrong, and highly political, given the latest inflation figures.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2025/jan/29/rba-interest-rates-decision-australia-inflation
Michelle Grattan’s view is after Wednesday’s encouraging inflation numbers, the Albanese government – and the financial markets – would be shocked if the Reserve Bank doesn’t cut interest rates in February. Having said that, with interest rates there are no guarantees, especially in a volatile world.
https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-chalmers-claims-sustained-progress-against-inflation-as-government-crosses-its-fingers-for-rate-cut-248538
David Speer’s analysis suggests the ball is in the RBA’s court on interest rates — and Anthony Albanese’s waiting game goes on.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-01-30/ball-in-rba-court-on-interest-rates-albanese-waits/104873058
Despite a senior cabinet minister admitting privately to this writer(Jacob Greber), that Labor can ill-afford wanton displays of hubris at the prospect of looming interest rate relief — after all, too many households are still in pain — the treasurer struggled to contain his glee over Wednesday’s inflation data.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-01-29/relived-chalmers-says-worst-of-inflation-battle-behind-us/104872568
In the other big news of the day, the owner of a caravan containing the address of a Sydney synagogue and enough stolen explosives to create a 40-metre blast wave is in police custody. The owner of the van, which was found at Dural in Sydney’s north-west on January 19, has not been charged in relation to the discovery of the explosives but has been previously arrested for other alleged offending, the Herald understands.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/caravan-of-explosives-found-in-sydney-synagogue-targeted-police-20250129-p5l854.html
A caravan of explosives was found in greater Sydney. Here’s what we know so far.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/jan/29/caravan-of-explosives-found-in-sydney-what-we-know-so-far-ntwnfb
Julian Leeser, the federal member for the Sydney suburb where a caravan was found allegedly containing explosives, says the revelation of a potential attack targeting the Jewish community is deeply disturbing.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-01-30/federal-mps-respond-caravan-explosives-investigation/104874144
Prominent anti-Voice campaigner Warren Mundine has been accused of making “disrespectful” remarks after he claimed there was “no doubt” the preselected Liberal candidate for the blue-ribbon Sydney seat of Bradfield was picked because she is a woman. Sour grapes much?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-01-29/warren-mundine-gisele-kapterian-bradfield-liberal/104866978
Peter Dutton has committed a future Coalition government to supporting “in principle” the Northern Territory government’s list of seven key requests to address crime in Alice Springs. The Northern Territory government says the Albanese government has so far only responded to one of the seven requests, enabling greater use of drones by police.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-01-29/dutton-finocchiaro-seven-point-crime-plan/104870842
In Queensland Jarrod Bleijie has thrown doubt on the promise he made during the election campaign to extend a rail line to Maroochydore on the Sunshine Coast in time for the 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games. Promises made. Promises broken.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-01-29/lnp-rail-promise-going-off-the-tracks-jarrod-bleijie/104872432
If elected, the WA Nationals will commit $100 million towards an Esperance desalination plant to shore up water for the Goldfields. The state government says it looked into the idea but found it made no economic or environmental sense.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-01-29/esperance-desalination-goldfields-kalgoorlie-water-supply-wa/104872804
Artificial intelligence, autism and child protection in focus as Peter Malinauskas reshuffles cabinet.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-01-29/ai-autism-child-protection-in-sa-cabinet-reshuffle/104870350
The NSW Police have finally caught the person who allegedly has been repeatedly spray painting the electorate office of Summer Hill Labor MP, Jo Haylen. Because he came back to do it again!
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-01-29/nsw-man-charged-after-jo-haylen-transport-office-damaged/104873088
Deputy Vice Chancellor Research at Charles Sturt Uni, Mark Evans says Australian democracy is not dead, but needs help to ensure its survival.
https://theconversation.com/australian-democracy-is-not-dead-but-needs-help-to-ensure-its-survival-235638
Alexandra Smith opines that a law and order auction will not be enough to win Dutton government in a cost-of-living crisis. But it will help him cement his leadership as a hard head in exactly the geographic areas of NSW he needs to win. Albanese still has time to turn his fortunes around, but only if he truly understands the risk of looking impotent when voters are scared.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/sydney-can-shake-off-its-summer-of-bad-news-albanese-may-not-be-so-lucky-20250129-p5l7zk.html
Shaun Carney observes that Peter Dutton is now looking for the holdout voters such as women of all ages and younger people to try to get the Liberals enough seats to have an edge over Labor. His reputation as a bloodless tough guy can only take him so far.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/you-can-dress-dutton-as-ham-but-that-doesn-t-make-him-pm-material-20250128-p5l7tz.html
In today’s attention-grabbing Trump news, the Trump administration on Wednesday rescinded its sweeping freeze of federal assistance, which roiled Washington and caused widespread confusion about which programs were affected by the move, according to a copy of the memo obtained by POLITICO.
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/01/29/trump-rescinds-spending-freeze-on-federal-assistance-00201280
Donald Trump orders detention centre in Guantanamo Bay opened to hold illegal migrants.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-01-30/trump-orders-migrants-sent-to-guantanamo-bay/104874682
Donald Trump to cancel student visas of ‘Hamas sympathisers’ at pro-Palestinian rallies.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-01-30/trump-student-visas-palestine/104874402
Project 2025 is already massively reshaping America. The OMB memo is the boldest, and clearest example of how the administration is employing Project 2025’s strategies.
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/01/29/trump-federal-spending-freeze-project-2025-007378
Key moments from RFK Jr’s senate hearings for health secretary confirmation.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-01-30/rfk-jr-senate-committee-hearings-health-secretary/104874432
‘Headed for technofascism’: the rightwing roots of Silicon Valley. The industry’s liberal reputation is misleading. Its reactionary tendencies – celebrating wealth, power and traditional masculinity – have been clear since the dotcom mania of the 1990s.
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/ng-interactive/2025/jan/29/silicon-valley-rightwing-technofascism
Elon Musk sparks backlash over a gesture at Trump’s inauguration, raising questions about intent, symbols and the power of perception, writes Vince Hooper.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/musks-controversial-gesture-and-the-anatomy-of-a-social-media-frenzy,19367
In other World news.
UK Labour is constantly torn between its self-image as a party of radical change and its fear of alienating voters with the wrong kind of radicalism.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/jan/29/labour-big-ideas-always-end-up-looking-small-ed-miliband
Dozens killed in crowd crushes at Kumbh Mela in India. Witnesses describe people being trampled amid surging crowds on the banks of the Ganges during Hindu festival.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jan/29/india-crowd-crush-kumbh-mela-religious-festival-death-toll-injuries-prayagraj
Greenland should consider rejoining the EU for ‘protection,’ Danish MEP says. “Clearly the situation has changed dramatically since ’85,” when Greenland left the EU, senior lawmaker says.
https://www.politico.eu/article/greenland-should-rejoin-the-eu-denmark-mep-morten-lokkegaard-says/
A Trump gas deal risks EU’s green goals, Finland warns .
https://www.politico.eu/article/finland-energy-environment-minister-kai-mykkanen-donald-trump-gas-deal-fossil-fuels-climate-change/
Germany’s likely next chancellor wants tougher migration measures even with far-right support, triggering a backlash ahead of a national election.
https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-friedrich-merz-cdu-political-tightrope-far-right-votes-afd-migration-crackdown/
Japan vows to prioritise Australia over its own navy with new Mogami warships. Tokyo is stepping up its campaign to win a lucrative Australian naval contract by pledging to give “priority” to warship exports over its own navy. Japan’s defence chief says if his country’s upgraded Mogami design is chosen, it will enhance cooperation and interoperability with Australia and the United States.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-01-29/japan-vows-to-give-australia-first-access-to-mogami-warship/104868658
Cartoons!
Matt Golding

Cathy Wilcox

Dionne Gain

First Dog On the Moon

David Squires

Mark David

Xavier Donovan

From the Internet
Americans, huh?

Enjoy!
World News & Politics Patrol:
Documents and devices possibly containing valuable information about Moscow’s military were among the items seized by Ukraine’s troops in an operation in Russia’s Kursk region, according to Ukraine’s military. Soldiers from Ukraine’s 8th Regiment of the Special Operations Forces (SOF) discovered the items in an operation in which seven Russian and two North Korean troops were killed.
https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine-military-plans-north-korea-kursk-2022596
Zelensky: Trump’s ‘Just and Fair’ Rhetoric on Russia Is ‘Exactly What Putin Is Afraid Of’: https://www.kyivpost.com/post/46262
Syria has demanded reparations from Russia in order to “rebuild trust” after a meeting between Damascus’ new administration and a Moscow delegation, according to local news sources. Russia and Syria’s meeting to discuss future relations comes as Moscow looks to retain its two military bases in the Middle Eastern country: https://www.newsweek.com/syria-demands-reparations-russia-2022813
Egypt will not participate in the displacement of Palestinians, an “act of injustice” that would threaten Egyptian security, President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi said on Wednesday in his first public response to U.S. President Donald Trump’s call for Cairo to take in residents of the Gaza Strip.
Speaking at a press conference with visiting Kenyan President William Ruto, Sisi said Egypt would work with Trump to reach peace between Israel and Palestinians based on a two-state solution: https://www.reuters.com/world/sisi-says-egypt-will-not-participate-act-injustice-displacing-palestinians-2025-01-29/
Keir Starmer has warned the new Tory leader Kemi Badenoch risks following in the footsteps of her disastrous predecessor Liz Truss. In a brutal slapdown at PMQs, the PM warned the leader of the opposition, who has been in the job less than three months, “if she keeps on like this she is going to be the next lettuce”: https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/keir-starmers-savage-response-kemi-34574006
55% of Britons now say it was wrong for the UK to leave the EU, with just 11% seeing Brexit as more of a success than a failure: https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/51484-how-do-britons-feel-about-brexit-five-years-on
Part 2:
Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) is embracing her role as one of her party’s sharpest critics of President Trump as other Democrats workshop a softer approach to him. The “squad” member skipped Trump’s inauguration, marking the first in a series of public back-and-forth exchanges with some of the president’s most loyal defenders on social media. After declaring that she doesn’t support “rapists” to explain her absence, the firebrand congresswoman later directed her ire at Elon Musk for making what many Democrats perceived to be a “Nazi salute” while giving a political speech. Now, she’s calling the early days of Trump’s presidency a “billionaire feeding frenzy.”: https://thehill.com/homenews/house/5111319-aoc-fox-news-trump-criticism/
The Trump’s administration’s Office of Management and Budget released a new memo Wednesday rescinding a controversial memo issued late Monday that froze a wide swath of federal financial assistance, which had paralyzed many federal programs and caused a huge uproar on Capitol Hill.
The decision came amid strong behind-the-scenes pushback from Republican lawmakers on Capitol Hill, according to a GOP senator who was apprised of the decision to reverse Monday’s budget memo: https://thehill.com/homenews/5113527-omb-federal-funding-freeze-rescind/
The Army rushed to satisfy President Donald Trump’s executive orders this week, sparking so much confusion that top officials directed a halt on new contracts and then walked it back — the latest muddled response to a series of chaotic actions by the White House. Top officials misinterpreted Trump’s order on diversity, equity and inclusion and set an Army freeze on deals for new weapons. The Pentagon clarified on Tuesday that it wasn’t going to issue a pause. The move upended the defense industry and signaled a broader uncertainty around the president’s sweeping actions: https://www.politico.com/news/2025/01/28/army-trump-executive-order-chaos-00201074
Donald Trump is the least popular newly elected president since the Second World War, with the exception of himself in 2017, according to a set of polls. Since taking office on Jan 20, the Republican has moved quickly to impose restrictions on immigration and scale back the size of the US government, efforts that have generally gone down well with the public: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/01/29/donald-trump-least-popular-newly-elected-president-ww2-usa/
Medicaid cuts would affect around 22 million people in states that expanded the program, according to a new analysis by the Democratic National Committee (DNC). “The state-by-state breakdown shows that gutting the program would involve “decimating rural communities across the country,” according to the analysis. Ten states have not expanded Medicaid, as is allowed under the Affordable Care Act: https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/5113432-medicaid-cuts-dnc-analysis/
A survey from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research has revealed that only about 3 in 10 U.S. adults support Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s nomination to be secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services. But President Trump’s choice of Kennedy is popular among Republicans: About 6 in 10 approve, compared to about 1 in 10 Democrats: https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5113533-only-3-in-10-approve-of-rfk-jr-nomination-poll/
Trump says he’ll hold undocumented immigrants at Guantanamo Bay: https://www.axios.com/2025/01/29/trump-guantanamo-bay-undocumented-immigrants
Former U.S. Sen. Bob Menendez was sentenced Wednesday to 11 years in prison for selling his once-considerable clout in Washington for gold bars, a luxury car and hundreds of thousands of dollars in cash bribes. Prosecutors have asked a federal judge to give the Democrat 15 years behind bars for crimes that include acting as an agent of the Egyptian government: https://www.nbcwashington.com/news/national-international/former-new-jersey-senator-bob-menendez-sentence/3828507/?amp=1
Donald Trump has appealed his hush-money conviction, seeking to erase the verdict that made him the first person with a criminal record to win the presidency. The president’s lawyers filed a notice of appeal on Wednesday, asking the state’s mid-level appeals court to overturn his conviction last May on 34 counts of falsifying business records: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jan/29/trump-appeals-hush-money-conviction
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2025/01/poll-roundup-long-slow-slide-continues.html
Poll Roundup: The Long Slow Slide Continues
Last-election-prefs aggregate 50.6 to Coalition (+0.3 since start of year)
#weatheronPB
Some clouds walking past,
the quiet, smiling, bright sun,
distract me a time.
I would love to see an AOC V JD Vance contest in 2028!
What is it with this guy,I certainly don’t know.
Maybe he has a Chip on his shoulder from all those years of toeing the line at F**& Murdoch’s Orstraylian.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/battin-s-liberals-are-soaring-in-the-polls-they-might-just-be-the-dog-that-caught-the-car-20250129-p5l7wn.html
Thanks for the morning roundups Banquo, Cat and Holden Hillbilly. Excellent efforts all. The combined effect is really comprehensive.
On the coverage of the inflation news, all the neutral observers are pointing out that both the figures are good and the prospects of an interest rates cut are high. There is no credible reason to say otherwise.
So what does The Australian do? Shift half the front page to a distraction piece. Instead of the most important economic news in twelve months we get culture wars about trans rights. The Oz is quite pathetic these days.
Also whilst I agree that Chalmers was struggling to suppress a smile yesterday, nobody pointed out that Angus Taylor looked like he had spent twenty minutes sucking on lemons before he went on camera.
C@tmomma, Socrates, Sprocket
Democrats flip Iowa state Senate seat in deep red Trump country
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2025/1/29/2299961/-Democrats-flip-Iowa-state-Senate-seat-in-deep-red-Trump-country?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_7&pm_medium=web
“Democrats on Tuesday flipped an Iowa state Senate seat in a district Donald Trump carried by 21 percentage points just a few months earlier, an incredible special election result that may serve as an early warning signal for Republicans about the 2026 midterms.
Democrat Mike Zimmer defeated Republican Kate Whittington, 52% to 48%, in a special election for Senate District 35—a rural seat located on the state’s eastern side.
In November 2022, Republican Chris Cournoyer defeated her Democratic opponent, 61% to 39%, in this same seat—making Zimmer’s win a massive shift toward Democrats. (Cournoyer resigned the seat to become Iowa’s lieutenant governor, creating the vacancy.)”
From the Guardian:
“Minns says explosives investigation needed to take place ‘away from the media spotlight’
Asked why the public did not learn of the caravan laden with explosives found in Dural until several days later, the premier, Chris Minns, told ABC News Breakfast “sometimes, experienced police officers … need to conduct their inquiries away from the media spotlight”:
We would release all of the information we possibly could as early as possible unless it compromised the police inquiry. That has to be the No 1 priority of New South Wales police and the government.
At some points during these complicated investigations police need to work in a clandestine way, using methods and tactics they don’t speak about publicly, so criminals don’t know what police are getting up when they launch these investigations.
I don’t want the public to believe that over the last 10 days police were twiddling their thumbs. The exact opposite was the case in New South Wales … If the public believe that police or the government will issue a media release when they begin a counter-terrorism investigation, that is not going to happen.
Sometimes, experienced police officers … need to conduct their inquiries away from the media spotlight, and I back their judgment in relation to this 100%.”
You would think it is bleeding obvious that information would not be put into the public arena if it would compromise police investigations, but the media and Coalition political hacks are still jumping up and down about it.
In scanning the articles at The Age online, there is no mention of the inflation figures or the prospect of a cut in the Target Cash Rate, noting the comments of the Fed Reserve
We just can’t have anything positive in the media, can we?
Instead that Battin’s Liberals are soaring (in their polling)
On the prior thread I put some historical context going back to 1978 and Malcolm Fraser
Fraser called on the States to create employment
Simply, for all the negatives regarding the infrastructure spend in Victoria, that activity where projects are now nearing completion, kept Australia from recession post the GFC and in the face of a pandemic
Kept Australia from recession (look at where the Target Cash Rate has been since the GFC and ask why such accommodating settings)
Before you get to community needs including the needs of our future generations
It is a pity Malcolm is not still around as a voice of reason referencing his positions of 1978 in regard cooperation across the fragments of society and those who represent those fragments
Instead we have what the Liberal Party has degenerated to
Kieran Gilbert @Kieran_Gilbert
As reported by @CamReddin
Assistant Treasurer Stephen Jones is leaving parliament, won’t recontest his seat of Whitlam #auspol announcement at 10am
TPOF,
Chris Minns is a good communicator. He knows how to knock media and Coalition shenanigans on the head.
Thanks for the guide William
Probably an overachiever I reckon. Good luck to him for the future.
Great job by Mali to create an AI portfolio with the minister having worked in computer science.
On interest rates, a single 0.25% drop would be nice but a few more would be a lot better. Any chance of that?
Thanks William, an excellent election tool.
US Cartoons:










Guide is funky.
Lefties do make good haters photo with dude about condom /Trump and 1945 gold!
Media labor cheer squad all want to pressure reserve bank .
More they do it more reserve will refuse as always if failed labor federal government did not bring in too many people,spend massive etc etc then they the bank would not had to increase rates 13 times under labor.
One cut and labor and its media bragging about it will incinerate more votes .
Big trouble for Albo last thing he would want and he would not of agreed to nature positive parliamentary action next week as it torch’s his WA vote ,Cook went beserk yesterday at labor feds in media.Damaging.
Tanya has decided via her staffers to get revenge on Albo for him throwing her under the bus more than once and backbenchers may also be playing a role worried they are out of a seat soon.
Next week will be ugly if Albo does not shut this down but can he though ?
Uncle Phil and AFR sniffs this and have it front page treatment.
As usual with this government own goals and one step forward two steps back.
This is a fascinating proposition that I just picked up from a podcast with a guy embedded in the tech world. To wit, that the Chinese Hedge Fund guys behind DeepSeek, developed it purely so they could short Nvidia stocks and make a killing.
Sounds plausible to me. I’ve watched ‘Billions’ 😀
pied pipsqueak,
You conservative luvvies don’t like it up you, do you? Calling it ‘hating on’ the right because someone does a pisstake of Trump? Don’t you remember Alan Jones and the Liberals’ greatest hits about Julia Gillard? ‘Sleepy Joe’? ‘Gavin Newscum’? But that’s something you’ll never complain about.
You guys are hypocrites of the first order. Fair dinkum.
Anyway, us Progressives have had to put up with it since President Orangutan and Slovenian Barbie came down the faux gold escalator, so if the tables get turned, too bad.
Diversion above.Lie down now and have a bex!
Trump has nothing to do with Albo vs Tanya.
Thought cartoon was funny about Trump !
Those of you who think that one measly interest rate reduction is going to make any impact on Albanese’s fortunes are sure to be bitterly disappointed.
It will merely slow the rate of further decline – would an election be held now it would probably result in a Dutton majority government (or very nearly so). Remember that we had 14 interest rate rises during this term where very, very little substantive policy change was passed.
The best that Albanese can do now is call an election as soon as possible and fall on his sword.
The age of wokery and “welcomes-to-country” is OVER!
“I would love to see an AOC V JD Vance contest in 2028!”
Me too. Assuming that Trump is unable to get a third term in 2028 (which is a very big “if”), JD Vance would absolutely crush AOC who might only win Massachussetts and Vermont. She wouldn’t even win California outside a three-mile radius of downtown LA and San Francisco.
Minns & the NSW Police Commissioner should liaise with a committee of prominent members of the Jewish community in Sydney about threats posed by those who would do them harm. The caravan full of explosives has taken anti-Semitism to a new level. A committee of, say, three could provide an undertaking not to reveal intelligence that could impede police investigations or affect court proceedings. And while this could already be in place, I get the feeling it’s not.
I see Albanese/Labor hater Scromoll is singing the same song as the West newspaper today.
After banging on for eons, the West grudgingly admits that inflation has come down but…wait for it….a reduction in interests rates which may come/may not come really is of no account and will not make any/much difference to voting intentions.
I suppose the ex-Newscorp editor in the West still keeps an eye on the Oz paper for his thoughts.
By the way Scromoll, bit concerned about you and the Welcome to Country dislike.
Would it be fair to say you would also like to see the reintroduction of the White Australia policy?
Maybe too all those “woke” people you also seem to have a set against should be rounded up and be made to shut up.
You sound like a voice from the past….like, the long-ago past.
We are lucky in Oz that sour comments like yours are part of the democratic process. Out in the open where we can all see them and belittle them for what they are worth = nothing.
This latter would be in keeping with your
Ven
“Democrats flip Iowa state Senate seat in deep red Trump country”
“Democrat Mike Zimmer defeated Republican Kate Whittington, 52% to 48%, in a special election for Senate District 35—a rural seat located on the state’s eastern side.
In November 2022, Republican Chris Cournoyer defeated her Democratic opponent, 61% to 39%, in this same seat—making Zimmer’s win a massive shift toward Democrats. (Cournoyer resigned the seat to become Iowa’s lieutenant governor, creating the vacancy.)”
————————————————————
Thanks for the news. You are correct that it is encouraging news for the Democrats in the 2026 mid term.
Yet I also find it so frustrating. Lots of observers, including some here, but many in US media, pointed out that Trump’s promises were undeliverable and he was doomed to disappoint his poorer MAGA supporters before the US election. Yet they voted for him anyway.
The US media (and Russian influencers) had a lot to answer for in the 2016 election result. In a close result their failure to scrutinise Trump may have cost Clinton the election.
In some ways 2024 was much worse. US voters should have known what Trump was like. US media did fact check Trump effectively in the debates etc. Yet Trump won by a small but clear margin. Many poor Americans clearly voted against their own self interest.
Social media disinformation campaigns are going to keep getting used, because the evidence is that they work on enough idiots to swing an election.
Oh Scromoll, an amendment…..a hater of all things on the centre and left of politics after your pro Republican anti-Democrat rank a couple of posts later. You really are a sad case. But, its good that your poisonous views (at least from my perspective) get to see the light of day.
Keep the bile flowing….it becomes you.
ScromoIIsays:
Thursday, January 30, 2025 at 10:09 am
Those of you who think that one measly interest rate reduction is going to make any impact on Albanese’s fortunes are sure to be bitterly disappointed
_____________________
Agree.
Who could ever forget Earlwood wanking on for days about Labor passing all the backed up legislation at the end of last year.
Bragged about it being a massive game changer.
Yet KB’s tracker has the Coalition + .3 since the start of the year.
ScromoIIsays
Those of you who think that one measly interest rate reduction is going to make any impact on Albanese’s fortunes are sure to be bitterly disappointed.
It will merely slow the rate of further decline – would an election be held now it would probably result in a Dutton majority government (or very nearly so). Remember that we had 14 interest rate rises during this term where very, very little substantive policy change was passed.
The best that Albanese can do now is call an election as soon as possible and fall on his sword.
The age of wokery and “welcomes-to-country” is OVER!’
You might be right S. But you might also be wrong. The race will get tighter toward election day, particularly if there is an interest rate cut. And really, what has your guy got? Some nuclear plants that he is not going to build and sack some public servants? The madness of Trumpism is also making the electorate nervous. All of a sudden, Dutton looks like a risk.
SMH blog:
A woman accused of a separate antisemitic attack was allegedly named in a search warrant related to the explosive-filled caravan found in Sydney’s northwest.
Robert, who owns a property on Derriwong Rd, where the caravan was found on January 19 after being abandoned for six weeks, said “about 20 police” from the terrorism squad “barged down the doors” of his home on January 21. Robert does not live at the property and said his tenants include two elderly women and a son with a disability. “They said the reason for the raid was the explosives. They said this house was linked to the caravan,” Robert said.
Robert’s daughter added that the search warrant referenced the names Tammie Farrugia – who was recently charged over an antisemitic attack in Woollahra on December 11 – and the 24-year-old’s partner, Scott Marshall.
Scromo getting rightly bollocked for disinformation, like:
Remember that we had 14 interest rate rises during this term where very, very little substantive policy change was passed.
Two, count ‘em, two Budget surpluses.
UK Cartoons and other miscellany
Andy Bunday

Patrick Blower

Peter Schrank

Morten Morland

Ella Baron

Matt

Dave Brown

Martyn Turner

Jonsey

The New Yorker. Brendan Loper

The New Yorker. Shannon Wheeler

The New Yorker. Jimmy Craig

Pat Hudson

And a word of advice to the minority of us who are servicing a mortgage
Media is informing that on a loan of $600,000- over 30 years a 25 Basis Points reduction in the Target Cash Rate will put $100- a month in their pockets (so a schnitzel at the local pub every week)
Home mortgage loans are set and forget products, the repayment obligations not being shifted by the bank with every move in the Target Cash Rate ( imagine the administration if this were the case advising every customer then monitoring compliance!)
The interest rate on which the principal plus interest repayments are calculated is based on a rate arbitrated by the lender – not the market per se
My advice is that the objective is to repay the loan – because that is where the difference comes from, having no debt
So instead of flocking to your bank asking for your repayments to be reduced continue to service as is (and with lower interest rates more is coming off principal than going to the lender as interest)
And see how many years it takes off the 30 years to repay the loan
As with government and the investment into infrastructure and services, you always play the long game