The Poll Bludger’s long-awaited federal election guide is now in action. It’s outwardly similar to this site’s past such guides but, in very real if not immediately apparent ways, better. A beginner’s guide:
• There is a page for each of the 150 lower house electorates, featuring overviews of their history and demographic profiles, candidate lists that are as up-to-date as I can make it (an ongoing task) with write-ups for those deemed competitive, an interactive map display with booth results from the 2022 election (which opens if you click the “activate” button at the bottom of the post, chart and tabular table of the 2022 results, historical charts showing party votes going back to 2001, and a number of charts recording the electorate’s demographic indicators. The historical vote charts now include primary as well as two-party preferred, which took some doing. One of the ways you can get all this is through a map-based landing page which also contains what could loosely be described as a pendulum.
• Margins and party vote shares are based on my own determinations where redistributions have been held, namely New South Wales, Victoria, Western Australia and the Northern Territory, and will thus differ from those of the ABC and the AEC. To follow on from this rather arcane earlier post discussing the various approaches taken by practitioners of electoral science in estimating support for independent members in areas where they weren’t on the ballot paper last time, some further explanation is warranted for the margins shown in five seats where independents made the final counts in 2022 and where the boundaries have changed: Fowler, Wentworth, Goldstein, Kooyong and Wannon. I have implemented a new method of estimating latent independent support to add to those described in the earlier post (by the AEC, Antony Green, Ben Raue, and me on my first go), in which statistical models have been developed to predict teal vote share based on the Indigenous Voice yes vote and various demographic variables. We seem to be in fairly close accord in most cases, but are all over the shop with Wentworth (UPDATE: Which turns out to be a tabulation error on my parts, which I’ve now corrected).
• There is also Senate guide featuring an overview page and individual pages for the six states and two territories, along similar lines to the aforementioned lower house seat pages.
• An overview page reviews the 2022 result, explains a few of the basics, considers where the election might be won, lost or fought to a draw, and has chart and table displays of results from last time and election past.
• The BludgerTrack poll aggregate now has a home under the roof of the federal election guide.
This seems to amount to around 80,000 words on top of all the coding and data aggregation that was required, and much of it constitutes preliminary work for the live results that will feature on this site on election night and beyond, which I humbly submit will put all its rivals in the shade. To this point, all I have to show for all this is satisfaction with a job well done: if you think something more is deserved, donations are gratefully received through the “become a supporter” button at the top of the site and at the bottom of each post.
While we’re here, some polling loose ends:
• The weekly Roy Morgan poll has the Coalition with an unchanged 52-48 lead on respondent-allocated preferences, but in from 52-48 to 51-49 based on 2022 election preference flows. The primary votes are Labor 29.5% (up one), Coalition 40.5% (down one-and-a-half), Greens 11.5% (down one-and-a-half) and One Nation 6% (up two). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1567.
• Further results from last week’s Resolve Strategic poll show 61% support for keeping January 26 as the date for Australia Day, substantially up from 47% when the same question was asked two years ago, with opposition down from 39% to 24%. There remains a marked generational effect, with respective numbers of 35% and 42% for those 18-to-34 and 79% and 12% for 55-plus. Fifty-two per cent expressed support for Peter Dutton’s proposal to enshrine the date in law, with 24% opposed.
C@tmomma @ #1695 Sunday, February 2nd, 2025 – 9:46 pm
Yeah, I’ve seen it. And I get flashbacks to Dominic Cummings from Spitting Image constantly trying to pass himself off as a human from Durham when he’s obviously an alien from Epsilon V.
Only the running theme is that it actually works because everyone around him is too stupid to notice.
Lars Von Trier @ #1674 Sunday, February 2nd, 2025 – 9:18 pm
You are a fabulist, Lars Von Trier. Not fabulous, a fabulist.
The bookies odds are not that strange Bystander at 9.35pm. The return offered reflects where the mug punters are placing their money, less of course a healthy profit margin for the bookie. The pool of money punted at this very early stage is likely to be small, and a few idiots have read the billionaire’s newspapers and decided to put a tiny bit of money on the libs.
Only the running theme is that it actually works because everyone around him is too stupid to notice.
That’s what I’m scared may happen here. 🙁
c@t we’re due for a Redbridge poll.
I’m mega unimpressed with “malcolm”.
Nothing on the Samaras “X” feed, except for some polling data from Freshwater.
Nothing on the redbridge website, nor the Herald sun/Daily Tele.
Looks like he’s quoting last week’s Newspoll feed from Ghosties “X” site.
Very un-impressed.
mj says:
Sunday, February 2, 2025 at 9:48 pm
Griffsays:
Sunday, February 2, 2025 at 9:40 pm
As for this Grand Coalition hypothetical, it is telling to see which posters are spruiking it
——–
You think you’re astute surprised this has passed your x-ray vision insight as a possible outcome.
_______
Of course it is a possibility. As is The Greens obtaining a parliamentary majority. But the probability of either situation occuring is rather low 😉
Granny Anny @ #1705 Sunday, February 2nd, 2025 – 9:56 pm
Eg Centre
nadia88 @ #1707 Sunday, February 2nd, 2025 – 9:57 pm
It’s just not fair dealing to drop something like that into the mix.
I agree with Bystander as well.
I mean, what have you got left after people start doing that and get away with it?
It could have been an innocent mistake but the post was worded in such a way that it seemed like new news.
There’s no way a Grand Coalition would work in Australia as politics are as they are.
Things may change if for example we end up going through an election every 6 months from now if minority governments keep on collapsing, but at the moment both Labor and Liberals would rather serve as opposition leader than Deputy PM to their opponents, and anything less would be treated as political treason by their party members.
So Dutton says lnp will hit the ground running with cuts after election but can’t say where the cuts will be. Seems to be a disconnect there.
Hi N88 and Cat mama nice to see you guys again still thinking this is anyone’s game at the moment this isn’t like the 2022 election where we knew that Labor had it still think it’s gonna be a bad night for both mage parties even then I think the age of big majorities for both parties are over think we never going to see a party get around 80 or 90 seats
Spence @ #1710 Sunday, February 2nd, 2025 – 10:03 pm
Seems to be disingenuousness on steroids there.
I mean, you just have to look at the sort of cuts Trump is making in the US to get the idea that Dutton’s would be along exactly the same lines here.
THAT’S why he doesn’t want to tell us about them!
C@tmommasays:
Sunday, February 2, 2025 at 9:46 pm
Has anyone else seen Peter Dutton’s ‘I’m a really nice guy, I smile, I’m a family man, but I have buns of steel because I used to be a plod’ ad on TV yet?
I was bombarded with it every 10 minutes on channel 1112 while I was watching ‘Antiques Road Trip’ with my son!
Does he really think that will work for him?
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The Spud doth protest to much, methinks.
If you have tell people you are a nice guy, you probably aren’t.
Wat Tyler @ #1696 Sunday, February 2nd, 2025 – 9:18 pm
Also 1952.
(I don’t include 2000 because, while at the time there was a potential for a Supreme Court pick, there were no vacancies in the court for the 2001-05 Presidential term.)
C@tmommasays:
Sunday, February 2, 2025 at 10:05 pm
Spence @ #1710 Sunday, February 2nd, 2025 – 10:03 pm
So Dutton says lnp will hit the ground running with cuts after election but can’t say where the cuts will be. Seems to be a disconnect there.
Seems to be disingenuousness on steroids there.
I mean, you just have to look at the sort of cuts Trump is making in the US to get the idea that Dutton’s would be along exactly the same lines here.
THAT’S why he doesn’t want to tell us about them!
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If you don’t know. Vote NO to Dutton’s cuts.
C@tmomma says:
Sunday, February 2, 2025 at 9:55 pm
Lars Von Trier @ #1674 Sunday, February 2nd, 2025 – 9:18 pm
The superfans dont appreciate that off camera the 2 party duopoly has quite cordial relations. There was a glimpse in the friendly rapport recently seen between Dutton and Shorten.
It won’t be personalities who prevent the Grand Coalition – more working out who gets what. Its likely to be something like Labor PM, Liberal Treasurer or vice versa.
You are a fabulist, Lars Von Trier. Not fabulous, a fabulist.
_________________________
No c@t, I am a fatalist – it’s a comin Soon!
What’s telling is that Dutton thinks he can get away with not announcing any spending cuts.
I guess he pulled off nukes so why wouldn’t he try this too?
It might cause high drama on PB but most workers and peasants will shrug their shoulders and say fair enough.
Joel
And a concert in the late 1970’s – and after the thronging crowd had departed we got to learn of the Boroughs of New York
This concert showing now is history
And in the old Parliament House there was the Members Bar
The days of Billy Wentworth going into the House to have a sleep!!
They were the days
QuentinR.,
My thinking is that the rupture has occurred over decades, well actually it seems to happen all the time in Australia. Especially on the conservative side. Labor has had the DLP split and The Greens calve off from the left of Labor. But the conservatives are already functioning like a barely-held together collective of LNP, Liberals, CLP & Nationals. However, now they have had their biggest split with the Teals taking a fair proportion of their former voters away from them. Of course, the UAP and PHON and whatever the Liberal Democrats are calling themselves these days split off from the right of the Coalition.
There will be no grand coalitions though. That’s just crazy talk. Neither major party of government would join with the other to form government in a million years. The only time they ever come together is when they agree to pass legislation. Increasingly rare these days.
I’m betting Dutton’s first big idea will be to both cut off immigration and force NDIS recipients and Jobseekers to fill in the gaps of low-paid labour that would be the result of that.
Of course the idea of forcing 65-year-olds to work full days on potato farms just to get the pittance they’d earn before qualifying for the pension would probably make a lot of people upset, so of course he can’t reveal such a plan until after the election.
Good to see you around too Quentin.
Yes, I thought we may have a poll tonight, but alas no.
The upcoming election is looking like it will be a long night. Not long to go. Another 10-14 weeks away.
Hope all’s well with you in your part of the world.
Another poll around 5pm tomorrow and then another on Tues morning.
Of course when people on PB tell you something definitely isn’t going to happen – you can pretty much be assured it will happen.
I can recall the day Dutton announced opposition to the Voice on here – and there was rejoicing on here for one that it would lead to a split in the Liberals and Albo was guaranteed a second term etc etc
Granny & c@t,
With the betting stuff.
I think it’s more along the lines of asking people – who do you think will win?
The pollster’s obviously ask – who do you want to win?
The latter is more relevent to polling of course. With “Centre”, I do keep an eye on his posts, as he was pretty confident on the former U.S. threads. He know’s his stuff.
With the betting markets – really don’t know what to make of them. Honestly, I prefer raw primary figures, than betting odds.
Lars Von Triersays:
Sunday, February 2, 2025 at 10:12 pm
What’s telling is that Dutton thinks he can get away with not announcing any spending cuts.
I guess he pulled off nukes so why wouldn’t he try this too?
It might cause high drama on PB but most workers and peasants will shrug their shoulders and say fair enough.
===================================================
So the general public that wanted complete details of every aspect of the Voice. Even though it would probably would have little or no effect, on the majority of them. Yet cuts that could severely effect the quality of services, like in health they receive. They don’t need any details for and will just shrug. Yeah, i’ll buy that.
Kirsdarke says:
Sunday, February 2, 2025 at 10:13 pm
I’m betting Dutton’s first big idea will be to both cut off immigration and force NDIS recipients and Jobseekers to fill in the gaps of low-paid labour that would be the result of that.
Of course the idea of forcing 65-year-olds to work full days on potato farms just to get the pittance they’d earn before qualifying for the pension would probably make a lot of people upset, so of course he can’t reveal such a plan until after the election.
————-
You still sticking with Dutton to win.
Lars Von Trier says:
Sunday, February 2, 2025 at 10:15 pm
Of course when people on PB tell you something definitely isn’t going to happen – you can pretty much be assured it will happen.
I can recall the day Dutton announced opposition to the Voice on here – and there was rejoicing on here for one that it would lead to a split in the Liberals and Albo was guaranteed a second term etc etc
_______
Thank you for yet another illustration of the Epimenides paradox 🙂
Edit: I am tired. It is self-referential but not strictly a paradox. As you were Lars!
Well there you go, thought the storms were going to miss us but just caught the edge. Lucky I opened the windows and switched off the AC as now Blackout as usual. Every time we get a bit of stormy weather power goes off!
Dutton isn’t trying to get people to love him. He’s just getting people used to him, so he doesn’t seem that bad and can be an acceptable alternative, so voters can still take their anger out on this Government.
He’s just trying to neutralise the “Opposition is a greater risk” factor and keep the focus on the voters’ dissatisfaction with the Government.
Abbott did the same thing when he was Opposition Leader. People didn’t like him much but he managed to soften himself enough to be tolerable enough to risk going with in order to punish the Labor Government.
Entropy @ #1713 Sunday, February 2nd, 2025 – 10:07 pm
The most ridiculous part of the ad is the traditional walking through an open field with the rest of the happy Dutton family, done in slow mo. 🙄 😆
Wat Tyler,
So people should reflect back to the Abbott era and think, ‘Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.’
nadia88 @ #1725 Sunday, February 2nd, 2025 – 10:21 pm
Actually no. The first week of Trump has shaken up most of my predictions. Namely in that when the Canadian Liberals seemed to be dead in the water, now one month later they’re back in the game.
I’m leaning more toward the position that Australians will more likely sour toward Dutton in the next few months, especially when Big Gina has pinned him down to be a Mini-Trump.
Of course, Labor under Albo has to make moves as well to take advantage of this to reverse their political fortunes.
Kirsdarke @ #1720 Sunday, February 2nd, 2025 – 10:13 pm
Kirsdarke,
Dutton may cut off refugee immigration but he is going to reopen the Temporary Visa spigot to drive down wages again.
C@tmomma @ #1732 Sunday, February 2nd, 2025 – 10:26 pm
Hmm, I’m not really sure. The first surprise I got since the US Election in November was just how viciously the US Republicans fought amongst themselves over the whole H1-B visa issue. The techbro capitalists vs. the white ethnostate racists. I’m betting there’s a similar schism in the Australian hard-right that they might not want too much focus to be brought upon.
Kirsdarkesays:
Sunday, February 2, 2025 at 10:25 pm
nadia88 @ #1725 Sunday, February 2nd, 2025 – 10:21 pm
Kirsdarke says:
Sunday, February 2, 2025 at 10:13 pm
I’m betting Dutton’s first big idea will be to both cut off immigration and force NDIS recipients and Jobseekers to fill in the gaps of low-paid labour that would be the result of that.
Of course the idea of forcing 65-year-olds to work full days on potato farms just to get the pittance they’d earn before qualifying for the pension would probably make a lot of people upset, so of course he can’t reveal such a plan until after the election.
————-
You still sticking with Dutton to win.
Actually no. The first week of Trump has shaken up most of my predictions. Namely in that when the Canadian Liberals seemed to be dead in the water, now one month later they’re back in the game.
I’m leaning more toward the position that Australians will more likely sour toward Dutton in the next few months, especially when Big Gina has pinned him down to be a Mini-Trump.
Of course, Labor under Albo has to make moves as well to take advantage of this to reverse their political fortunes.
===================================================
Personally i’m not a great fan of predicting the outcome of elections. As your prediction has zero influence on the actual outcome anyway. Though some of the RWNJ’s on here may think otherwise, the way they go on at times. The only times when predictions are useful is when testing a model. So basically using a model to come up with hypothesis and seeing if what it predicts confers with reality. Something again that RWNJ’s don’t understand. Considering Global warming models have very successfully predicted the global temperature increases we see today. Yet RWNJ’s are still in denial over this.
So the punters want cost of living measures and cuts as well? FMD.
LVT says: ‘Of course when people on PB tell you something definitely isn’t going to happen – you can pretty much be assured it will happen’
Anthony Albanese will definitely not win the next federal election breaking the hearts and minds of the coalition’s right wing supporters.
Player 1 says Dutton runs the country now.
steve davissays:
Sunday, February 2, 2025 at 10:43 pm
Player 1 says Dutton runs the country now.
============================================
Player 1 probably just has a thing for nasty bald men.
@Entropy at 10:35pm
That’s fair enough. Just what I meant to say is that at the moment in February I feel a bit more confident that things can turn around for Labor under Albo than I was in December/January.
Namely that the type of person that supported or dismissed the dangers of Trump 2.0 by thinking “Nah, he won’t actually do the things he says he’ll do” are being proven wrong barely a week later by him doing the things he said he’ll do.” might possibly be having doubts about happily voting for MAGA in Australia at this moment.
Kirs yeah I think the problem with Peter is that he actually gave Labor a great attack ad with the we won’t announce cuts too after the election they can easily run Tony Abbott adds when he said that’s going to be no cuts and then do the same to Peter that’s why I find it funny when people say lay lost the selection no they barely become the election campaign also saying for the responses and n88 and Cat mama yeah I do think that legislation is not going get it through a lot anymore probably one or two big ones that they agree with s*** I barely think budgets are gonna get through anymore we’ll get the Tony Abbot budget
Kris I also think people are still apprehensive or Peter concerning how the polling is at the moment that’s why was surprised where people think that the liberals were gonna win it’s still anyone’s gang that’s why I have a feeling it’s gonna be the poles are going to be stagged and it’s going to be a s*** night for both parties
I am just reminding everyone not to take too much notice of gambling odds because they are effected by big bets and remember the last Ghost summary was 51/49.
malcolmsays:
Sunday, February 2, 2025 at 10:49 pm
I am just reminding everyone not to take too much notice of gambling odds because they are effected by big bets and remember the last Ghost summary was 51/49.
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Gambling odds are pretty meaningless this far out from an election. A week or two before the poll, they obviously do have some meaning then.
Odds meant nothing in 2019. Sportsbet even paid out on a Labor win before the Saturday.
Kirsdarkesays:
Sunday, February 2, 2025 at 10:45 pm
@Entropy at 10:35pm
That’s fair enough. Just what I meant to say is that at the moment in February I feel a bit more confident that things can turn around for Labor under Albo than I was in December/January.
Namely that the type of person that supported or dismissed the dangers of Trump 2.0 by thinking “Nah, he won’t actually do the things he says he’ll do” are being proven wrong barely a week later by him doing the things he said he’ll do.” might possibly be having doubts about happily voting for MAGA in Australia at this moment.
================================================
Yes i agree. I was worried that Trump would be to slow an economic train crash. To be able to be used as a morality tale before our election. Trump has proved me wrong and shown himself to be an expert at derailing and crashing economic trains in record times, plus the odd aeroplane.
Interesting WA state labor have been campaigning hard in rural WA maybe worried about sheep export and gun licensing etc.
Albo has been here often so how many times will Cook want Albo alongside him campaigning?
Libs will be lucky if McGowan is busy and avoids helping Cook out with a guest appearance or two.
”So Dutton says lnp will hit the ground running with cuts after election but can’t say where the cuts will be. Seems to be a disconnect there.”
He won’t tell us because the cuts will be as popular as a sneeze in a lift.
Anyway, has anyone asked the Thug why we need to cut public services? The whole thing seems to relate to tropes that might have rung true in the distant past but after 50 years of neoliberal “reform” and periodic bouts of austerity, what’s left?
That’s right, the Right’s big supporters and bankrollers don’t want to pay tax and, unless they can write the regulations, don’t want to be regulated.
Steve777says:
Sunday, February 2, 2025 at 11:07 pm
”So Dutton says lnp will hit the ground running with cuts after election but can’t say where the cuts will be. Seems to be a disconnect there.”
He won’t tell us because the cuts will be as popular as a sneeze in a lift.
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Or a Nuclear power plant in your town.
Which i gather they are using a USA beauty queen to spruik now.
How long before Trump orders any reference to solar power be removed?
Will “Little Miss Sunshine” be banned?
David Frum of The Atlantic looks at the price that the United States might have to ultimately pay for the shoe salesman’s declaration of (trade) war:
Trump is single-handedly reneging on 80 years of American work to persuade others to trust and rely on the United States. He is remodeling the international image of the U.S. after himself: impulsive, self-seeking, short-sighted, and untrustworthy. First-term Trump might have been dismissed as an aberration, brought to office by a fluke of America’s archaic Electoral College. A returned Trump, this time empowered by a genuine popular-vote victory, cannot be so readily dismissed. He obviously represents something deep in American politics, something likely enduring, something that other countries must take into account. […]
Over the past five centuries, the Euro-Atlantic world has seen the rise of one great power after another: Habsburg Spain, Bourbon and Napoleonic France, Victorian Britain, Imperial and then Nazi Germany, the Soviet Union. Each of those powers was ultimately brought down because it frightened other powers into uniting against it. […]
The United States since 1945 tried a different way. It reconciled the world to its dominance in great part by using that dominance for the benefit of willing partners. The United States provided security, it opened markets, it welcomed the improving prosperity of fellow democracies and like-minded allies. Who would hazard the costs and dangers of uniting to topple such a benign hegemon—at least, so long as the hegemon remained benign?
In the 21st century, the United States faces a new kind of adversary. Past rivals might have matched the U.S. in wealth, technology, or military strength, but not in all three. China today is the nearest peer power the U.S. has faced since Americans battled the British Empire in the War of 1812. To balance China while keeping the peace, the U.S. will need more and better friends than ever before. Trump is doing his utmost instead to alienate and offend those friends.
Dutton isn’t choosing to not reveal cuts as a strategic calculation, Lars. It’s out of necessity. It’s years since the LNP had the kind of talent in the party that could devise a scheme that could be effectively sold to the public. Even with the support of the MSM.
And it’s the pathetic state of the media that makes it relatively safe for Dutton to do that.