The Poll Bludger’s long-awaited federal election guide is now in action. It’s outwardly similar to this site’s past such guides but, in very real if not immediately apparent ways, better. A beginner’s guide:
• There is a page for each of the 150 lower house electorates, featuring overviews of their history and demographic profiles, candidate lists that are as up-to-date as I can make it (an ongoing task) with write-ups for those deemed competitive, an interactive map display with booth results from the 2022 election (which opens if you click the “activate” button at the bottom of the post, chart and tabular table of the 2022 results, historical charts showing party votes going back to 2001, and a number of charts recording the electorate’s demographic indicators. The historical vote charts now include primary as well as two-party preferred, which took some doing. One of the ways you can get all this is through a map-based landing page which also contains what could loosely be described as a pendulum.
• Margins and party vote shares are based on my own determinations where redistributions have been held, namely New South Wales, Victoria, Western Australia and the Northern Territory, and will thus differ from those of the ABC and the AEC. To follow on from this rather arcane earlier post discussing the various approaches taken by practitioners of electoral science in estimating support for independent members in areas where they weren’t on the ballot paper last time, some further explanation is warranted for the margins shown in five seats where independents made the final counts in 2022 and where the boundaries have changed: Fowler, Wentworth, Goldstein, Kooyong and Wannon. I have implemented a new method of estimating latent independent support to add to those described in the earlier post (by the AEC, Antony Green, Ben Raue, and me on my first go), in which statistical models have been developed to predict teal vote share based on the Indigenous Voice yes vote and various demographic variables. We seem to be in fairly close accord in most cases, but are all over the shop with Wentworth (UPDATE: Which turns out to be a tabulation error on my parts, which I’ve now corrected).
• There is also Senate guide featuring an overview page and individual pages for the six states and two territories, along similar lines to the aforementioned lower house seat pages.
• An overview page reviews the 2022 result, explains a few of the basics, considers where the election might be won, lost or fought to a draw, and has chart and table displays of results from last time and election past.
• The BludgerTrack poll aggregate now has a home under the roof of the federal election guide.
This seems to amount to around 80,000 words on top of all the coding and data aggregation that was required, and much of it constitutes preliminary work for the live results that will feature on this site on election night and beyond, which I humbly submit will put all its rivals in the shade. To this point, all I have to show for all this is satisfaction with a job well done: if you think something more is deserved, donations are gratefully received through the “become a supporter” button at the top of the site and at the bottom of each post.
While we’re here, some polling loose ends:
• The weekly Roy Morgan poll has the Coalition with an unchanged 52-48 lead on respondent-allocated preferences, but in from 52-48 to 51-49 based on 2022 election preference flows. The primary votes are Labor 29.5% (up one), Coalition 40.5% (down one-and-a-half), Greens 11.5% (down one-and-a-half) and One Nation 6% (up two). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1567.
• Further results from last week’s Resolve Strategic poll show 61% support for keeping January 26 as the date for Australia Day, substantially up from 47% when the same question was asked two years ago, with opposition down from 39% to 24%. There remains a marked generational effect, with respective numbers of 35% and 42% for those 18-to-34 and 79% and 12% for 55-plus. Fifty-two per cent expressed support for Peter Dutton’s proposal to enshrine the date in law, with 24% opposed.
Yes, I think Trump very clearly has narcissistic personality, although the problem is with whether he achieves the threshold for disorder. The fact that he may not have crossed the threshold for disorder is perhaps more an indictment on American society than anything else.
The trump dick riders will be happy even if they take a financial hit. Sticking it to internationalists is what they want. Politics often trumps personal gain, except for defined benefits millionaires.
The Wombat @ #1540 Sunday, February 2nd, 2025 – 3:43 pm
Then you disagree with the rest of the world except for Uruguay, the Vatican and a few small pacific and Caribbean states that have sold their foreign policy for some arms.
The Chinese Civil War has been in a state of uneasy truce for the last 75 years – sometimes shots have been fired and during the Cultural Revolution the Kuomintang thought they had a chance at winning. In the end it will be resolved probably with some face saving formula. Personally I suspect Trump has no interest in sabre rattling and perhaps even war to maintain Taiwan. As the self proclaimed master of the deal he will tell the Taiwanese to make the best deal they can.
I’m having trouble with striking the balance between the necessity to take Trump’s actions seriously & the impulse to just, as BW said, go along for the ride & laugh at it all. Probably a fairly common problem.
On second thought, even those countries which recognise Taiwan do so on the basis that the administration in Taipei is the government of China. No countries recognise Taiwan as an independent nation.
OC along with yet another deflections.
Legalisms and polite pretenses abound around Taiwan.
What is real is brute force and the whim of the megalomaniacs.
The official legal status of Taiwan or Greenland, or what anybody else thinks are germane considerations, are totally irrelevant to Xi and to Trump.
Laws to Xi are as laws to Trump. It is my way or the highway.
If Xi thinks the can capture Taiwan without undue cost he will capture Taiwan.
Simple as that.
Trump Signs Executive Order Raising Tariffs On Canada, Mexico, and China. UPDATE: Canadian Tariffs!
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2025/2/1/2300686/-Trump-Signs-Executive-Order-Raising-Tariffs-On-Canada-Mexico-and-China?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web
“Looks like Trump has started his trade war with Canada, Mexico, and China. According to updates from the NYT, Trump signed an executive order placing 25 tariffs on Canada and Mexico, with a 10% tariff on Canadian oil. China got hit with a 10% tariff. All these tariffs are to take effect on Tuesday at 1201. ”
“UPDATE:
David Adams, the president of a trade group that includes the Canadian manufacturing operations of Honda and Toyota, said that the tariffs will quickly cause automakers on both sides of the border to shut down assembly lines because the industry is so interconnected. “It’s not a good situation,” said Adams, the president of the Global Automakers of Canada.
I will watch for this. Toyota has a manufacturing facility in Georgetown, KY. If there is a shut down there, I wonder what dear Old Moscow Mitch will say about Trump’s tariffs? Nothing I bet.
”
“2nd UPDATE: Canada Imposes Tariffs On 150 Billion Dollars Worth of American Goods.
Canada is imposing 25% tariffs on at least 150 billion dollars worth of American goods. Canada is being selective in hitting specific American goods from primarily red states (orange juice from Florida, and bourbon from Kentucky and so forth).”
‘Peter C says:
Sunday, February 2, 2025 at 3:59 pm
Irene
….’
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This is grossly offensive. It is against the site’s rules. Beyond a shadow of a doubt. Delete it now, please.
Every western country thinks Taiwan has become a new country. We just don’t say it. If China is unable to exercise power over Taiwan, and as regimes come and go in mainland China, eventually we will recognise the blindingly obvious, at a time when it’s not likely to result in a war. Which may well be a century or two from now, which is but a blink of the eye of history. All that matters in the mean time is that the people of Taiwan effectively have autonomy from the CCP.
Correct.
Irene, I would hardly classify what you post as ‘facts’. 😐
Calm down Irene.
Boerwar @ #1557 Sunday, February 2nd, 2025 – 4:00 pm
BW
I am not quite getting your argument – The Chinese attitude to Taiwan is consistent with international law – are you saying this is a bad thing.
C@tmomma, BW
I repeat
2nd UPDATE: Canada Imposes Tariffs On 150 Billion Dollars Worth of American Goods.
Canada is imposing 25% tariffs on at least 150 billion dollars worth of American goods. Canada is being selective in hitting specific American goods from primarily red states (orange juice from Florida, and bourbon from Kentucky and so forth).
after Trump imposes tariffs on Canada.
Oakeshott Countrysays:
Sunday, February 2, 2025 at 3:48 pm
Sorry I can’t edit on this computer.
The point of the impeachment wasn’t about the relationship being improper but that Clinton had perjured himself.
============================================
As i said it was 25 years ago and can’t remember the full details. If that is the case. No, i don’t believe he should have been impeached. If we impeach USA Presidents for lying (even, just under oath). They would need to have 5 or 6 of them a term. Trump would be being impeached for every second sentence.
Mr Trudeau said Canada would impose 25% tariffs on $155bn Canadian dollars (£85.9bn) of US goods in response to Mr Trump’s 25% tariffs on goods. Energy imported from Canada, including oil, natural gas and electricity, would be taxed at a rate of 10%.
Duties on $30bn Canadian dollars (£16.6bn) in trade in American alcohol and fruit will take effect on Tuesday when the US tariffs are set to start. The remaining $125bn Canadian dollars (£69.3bn) will take effect in 21 days.
Trade war begins. No winners.
The Wombat @ #1560 Sunday, February 2nd, 2025 – 4:03 pm
Do they?
It has certainly been Australian Government policy since the year dot that there is one China – the only real change has been that in 1973 Australia has recognised the Beijing Government as the legitimate authority rather that the Taipei regime.
In relation to Trump, 77 million of them voted for this, he telegraphed before the election what he’d do and they still voted for it.
Irene is a good and regular contributor, and she’s subject to a lot of abuse from certain people because she’s not on board the pro Albanese bandwagon.
All views ought to be welcome here
DS
Yes to a degree that is acceptable to the moderator.
So LVT, how many applications for divorce are proceedings initiated by women?
As with everything it is a 2 way street
Divorce is the result of a breakdown of relationships, no doubt for a raft of reasons
So to bring gender into it is just plain wrong
So as with Irene and other anti Labor contributors to this site there is minimal substance to their deluded criticisms regardless, their contributions easily consigned to the rubbish bin by those who do respond on the specifics
And the other thing I note is that they never respond to fact
They just move onto some other garbage
Will we ever see a Federal Labor leader with the high level of political, intellectual, practical and verbal skills of a Keating or Andrews again …?
Deleted my last post. I need to go back to Economics 101…
Well, we know one thing for sure now this trade war’s started. If the RBA doesn’t reduce rates it’ll be Labor’s fault.
C@tmomma, BW, Wombat
Is ‘Five eyes’ pact in tatters with real trade war between neighbours US and Canada?
Is NATO in tatters because Trump will grab Greenland by hook or crook?
WHO is certainly in tatters after Trump pulled out of it because US is major donor.
WTO is in complete tatters after Trump is imposing tariffs willy nillyon any country doesn’t agree to his threats.
By imposing tariffs on Canada and Mexico, Trump demonstrated that what China did to Australia (i.e imposing tariffs on Australian goods into China when Australia did something China did not like.
steve davissays:
Sunday, February 2, 2025 at 4:12 pm
DS
Yes to a degree that is acceptable to the moderator.
==============================================
I don’t think anyone has suggested Irene be banned though. Writing a post opposing her views. While obviously not a welcome wagon, should not be seen as an attempt to run her out of Dodge.
OC
It is not hard. I am not sure why you are trying to make it complicated.
International law is getting past its use-by date with Putin, Xi and Trump.
Xi is all for international law until he isn’t.
And he acts accordingly.
Trump, ditto.
There is simply no point in discussion international law or what third parties think.
Might is as a might does.
“Is ‘Five eyes’ pact in tatters with real trade war between neighbours US and Canada?
Is NATO in tatters because Trump will grab Greenland by hook or crook?’
Absolute no brainer. Trump is just a destroyer. He could see AUKUS off too anyday too. Agreements mean nothing to him
Canadian province of Nova Scotia has ordered American alcohol be removed from shelves.
Entropy
Everyone should be able to post their views of course, but there has to be acceptable language in posts.
Trump, Xi and Putin imply bullying is ok.
Trump, Xi and Putin imply that might is right.
Trump and Putin imply crime pays
Trump and Putin behave like Caligula-Nero rolled into one.
But the thing is Trump is elected by the most powerful and strongest democratic nation in the world, whereas Putin and Xi are dictators.
HH
There is going to be a lot of ‘tit for tat’measures in the coming months no doubt.
As I have put on here before, Capital is global
Hence Companies such as Honda and Toyota responding to the tariffs imposed on Canada
We have obligations to orderly society – and that includes cross border obligations including honouring Contracts (usually written in USD’s)
Australia is impacted by global events
Some on this site do not seem to appreciate or understand these reliance’s and these obligations
And the importance of them
The move from coal as a source of energy is being consummated by Capital – so the owners of these assets, including global Companies exiting those assets for the reasons they are (globally)
And they are investing in alternatives such that they still have a market (and a business)
It is interesting that Capital is not promoting nuclear energy in Australia
No doubt Nuckleer Pete was trusting that Capital would commit to funding a nuclear industry in Australia
They have not and that is significant
So it is all down to the taxpayer
And in a trade war, a Nation of 350 million loses to the rest of the world
Simple mathematics
Before you get to how much USA sovereign debt is owned by China
steve davissays:
Sunday, February 2, 2025 at 4:08 pm
Trade war begins.
==================================================
Begun, it has.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GbXUhQcVWQ0
Haha..
What If you earnt the money and the wife runs off with another fella Peter c?
Do you think it’s reasonable that the wife gets a share of the assets ?
”
Holdenhillbillysays:
Sunday, February 2, 2025 at 4:26 pm
Canadian province of Nova Scotia has ordered American alcohol be removed from shelves.
”
I thought Canadian Liberal party is dead and about to be buried and cremated due to Trudeau stupid actions as Canadian PM.
But I think Trump unwittingly has given a new lease of life to Canadian Liberal party. Canadians under attack will look to party of governance even if it causes pain to act on Trump tariffs.
The Canadian government is acting by imposing tariffs on USA. I think Canadian government popularity will increase atleast in short term. The Canadian opposition cannot go against what the government is doing.
Trump is about to find out how popular he really is.
Holdenhillbillysays:
Sunday, February 2, 2025 at 4:26 pm
Canadian province of Nova Scotia has ordered American alcohol be removed from shelves.
*************************************************
Given my experience of American liquor, that must come as quite a relief to the people of Nova Scotia.
Rex Douglassays:
Sunday, February 2, 2025 at 4:39 pm
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Aptly named too i see. She really stanke that exercise in propaganda up.
Ha!
Peter Dutton has said a re-elected Coalition government would not launch an independent inquiry to identify areas of inflated government spending, despite the opposition mounting continued attacks on Labor’s expenditure and pledging to reduce government inefficiency in the lead up to the election.
Appearing on ABC’s Insiders, the Opposition leader said he would not follow former Liberal Prime Minister Tony Abbott in promising a National Commission of Audit style inquiry, to identify savings and sustainability issues, and instead his government would do it themselves.
“We’re not having a similar style audit, but many of us have sat around the expenditure review committee. I was assistant treasurer to Peter Costello many years ago. We know what we’re doing,” he said.
“We’re able to hit the ground running, and we’ve worked with the departments, with many of the departmental heads that are there now, and I have no doubt that we’ll be able to find where Labor has put fat into the system that is not helping do anything but drive inflation.”
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/cops-fears-over-pms-office-leak-kept-him-in-the-dark-over-caravan-terror-plot-dutton/live-coverage/c0f5b37472087464b10071de2b73ca76#/entry/10692513
Trump is trying to be clever by imposing only a 10% tariff on oil, natural gas and electricity supplies from Canada while other imports are taxed at 25%. I read earlier that some northern states are extremely dependent on these energy supplies from Canada – they cannot just whip up new pipelines and electricity transmission lines. Also, the idea was floated that Canada could cut off or limit supplies should they wish, as a retaliatory measure. It will be interesting to see what Canada actually does.
Well, LVT there are such things as Property Orders handed down by the Family Court of Australia where each party presents
So no one “runs off with the money”
As I understand the criteria for the Family Court of Australia is the interests of the children
But keep knocking yourself out
My first visit to Hong Kong was when holidaying thru SE Asia in 1970, when you went to the New Territories and looked thru binoculars at China
Past that my knowledge of China is transitioning from a subsistence economy to what we see today, with how many Cities with populations exceeding the population of Australia?
And the biggest trading partner with how many Nations and Zones?
Plus both David Hayes and David Hall train in Hong Kong – as do others including jockeys
Plus Australian businesses not only manufacture in China but conduct business in China (as do many USA brands attracted by market)
I haven’t seen Insiders for many, many years, but I might give this a go.
Jo Dyer @instanterudite.bsky.social
Sick of #insiders? From Feb 16, you will have an alternative! @theshot.net.au is launching The Sunday Shot – join @davemilbo.bsky.social & me & some of Australia’s best independent journalists at 9am every Sunday as we dive into the key issues of what is going to be a volatile election campaign.
Ven at 4.32pm
“But the thing is Trump is elected by the most powerful and strongest democratic nation in the world, whereas Putin and Xi are dictators.”
I reckon the US is a marginal democracy at best. They cling to an ancient constitution and ignore bits that don’t match their agenda. Money has a huge impact on elections. Gerrymandering is rife, governments enact legislation that make it difficult for some people to vote, judges are appointed with views that match desired outcomes to litigation, and now they have a bloke who is a felon, sexual preditor, and proven liar ruling by decree.
Soharsays:
Sunday, February 2, 2025 at 5:07 pm
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Party like it is 1928, then jump off the buildings, like it is 1929. Conservatives, not here for along time, just a good time.
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum on Saturday ordered retaliatory tariffs in response to the U.S. decision to slap 25% tariffs on all goods coming from Mexico, as a trade war broke out between the two neighbors.
In a lengthy post on X, Sheinbaum said her government sought dialogue rather than confrontation with its top trade partner to the north, but that Mexico had been forced to respond in kind.
“I’ve instructed my economy minister to implement the plan B we’ve been working on, which includes tariff and non-tariff measures in defense of Mexico’s interests,” Sheinbaum posted, without specifying what U.S. goods her government will target.
The United States is by far Mexico’s most important foreign market, and Mexico in 2023 overtook China as top destination for U.S. exports: https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/mexican-president-orders-retaliatory-tariffs-against-us-2025-02-02/
Canada and China economy basketcases so good timing by Trump.
Really good he has targeted cheaper China purchases by Americans aka Temu etc.
Mexico will not be allowed to be a front for Chinas Auto industry to get around car protection policy of the USA.
Trump was elected by the majority and they obviously voted for bringing countries that flood USA with drugs to account.
Good 10 days of Trump first term so far.
Rumour is not much new in the soon to be released Kennedy assassin docs but the FBI had it in for Luther King bigtime docs reveal.
pied pipersays:
Sunday, February 2, 2025 at 5:31 pm
Canada and China economy basketcases so good timing by Trump.
Really good he has targeted cheaper China purchases by Americans aka Temu etc.
Mexico will not be allowed to be a front for Chinas Auto industry to get around car protection policy of the USA.
Trump was elected by the majority and they obviously voted for bringing countries that flood USA with drugs to account.
Good 10 days of Trump first term so far.
=================================================
Not for Australia.
“ASX, dollar to dip as shock Trump tariff move unsettles markets
The Australian share market is expected to fall from near-record highs following President Donald Trump’s shock move to immediately forge ahead with tariffs.”
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=TAWEB_WRE170_a_GGL&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theaustralian.com.au%2Fbusiness%2Fcompanies%2Fbig-miners-could-bear-the-brunt-of-president-trumps-move-to-swiftly-impose-tariffs%2Fnews-story%2Fcd9d1d1df892506c80ca6595ac49a955&memtype=anonymous&mode=premium&v21=LOW-Segment-1-SCORE&V21spcbehaviour=append
Spurred on by incessant hatred the right wing astro turfer keyboard warriors take their toxic and unique understandings of reality to new heights.