The Poll Bludger’s long-awaited federal election guide is now in action. It’s outwardly similar to this site’s past such guides but, in very real if not immediately apparent ways, better. A beginner’s guide:
• There is a page for each of the 150 lower house electorates, featuring overviews of their history and demographic profiles, candidate lists that are as up-to-date as I can make it (an ongoing task) with write-ups for those deemed competitive, an interactive map display with booth results from the 2022 election (which opens if you click the “activate” button at the bottom of the post, chart and tabular table of the 2022 results, historical charts showing party votes going back to 2001, and a number of charts recording the electorate’s demographic indicators. The historical vote charts now include primary as well as two-party preferred, which took some doing. One of the ways you can get all this is through a map-based landing page which also contains what could loosely be described as a pendulum.
• Margins and party vote shares are based on my own determinations where redistributions have been held, namely New South Wales, Victoria, Western Australia and the Northern Territory, and will thus differ from those of the ABC and the AEC. To follow on from this rather arcane earlier post discussing the various approaches taken by practitioners of electoral science in estimating support for independent members in areas where they weren’t on the ballot paper last time, some further explanation is warranted for the margins shown in five seats where independents made the final counts in 2022 and where the boundaries have changed: Fowler, Wentworth, Goldstein, Kooyong and Wannon. I have implemented a new method of estimating latent independent support to add to those described in the earlier post (by the AEC, Antony Green, Ben Raue, and me on my first go), in which statistical models have been developed to predict teal vote share based on the Indigenous Voice yes vote and various demographic variables. We seem to be in fairly close accord in most cases, but are all over the shop with Wentworth (UPDATE: Which turns out to be a tabulation error on my parts, which I’ve now corrected).
• There is also Senate guide featuring an overview page and individual pages for the six states and two territories, along similar lines to the aforementioned lower house seat pages.
• An overview page reviews the 2022 result, explains a few of the basics, considers where the election might be won, lost or fought to a draw, and has chart and table displays of results from last time and election past.
• The BludgerTrack poll aggregate now has a home under the roof of the federal election guide.
This seems to amount to around 80,000 words on top of all the coding and data aggregation that was required, and much of it constitutes preliminary work for the live results that will feature on this site on election night and beyond, which I humbly submit will put all its rivals in the shade. To this point, all I have to show for all this is satisfaction with a job well done: if you think something more is deserved, donations are gratefully received through the “become a supporter” button at the top of the site and at the bottom of each post.
While we’re here, some polling loose ends:
• The weekly Roy Morgan poll has the Coalition with an unchanged 52-48 lead on respondent-allocated preferences, but in from 52-48 to 51-49 based on 2022 election preference flows. The primary votes are Labor 29.5% (up one), Coalition 40.5% (down one-and-a-half), Greens 11.5% (down one-and-a-half) and One Nation 6% (up two). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1567.
• Further results from last week’s Resolve Strategic poll show 61% support for keeping January 26 as the date for Australia Day, substantially up from 47% when the same question was asked two years ago, with opposition down from 39% to 24%. There remains a marked generational effect, with respective numbers of 35% and 42% for those 18-to-34 and 79% and 12% for 55-plus. Fifty-two per cent expressed support for Peter Dutton’s proposal to enshrine the date in law, with 24% opposed.
Lars Von Trier says:
Sunday, February 2, 2025 at 5:33 pm
Dodging the question Peter C?
Oh dear – you haven’t told them ur a men’s rights advocate have you?
__________
Perhaps Peter is taking your approach. Never explain 😉
p.s. why so grumpy these past few days? I thought you were Team Spender?
Democracy Sausagesays:
Sunday, February 2, 2025 at 4:10 pm
In relation to Trump, 77 million of them voted for this, he telegraphed before the election what he’d do and they still voted for it.
Irene is a good and regular contributor, and she’s subject to a lot of abuse from certain people because she’s not on board the pro Albanese bandwagon.
All views ought to be welcome here
————–
Thanks DS. Have to laugh how so many passionate Labor supporters writing here pretend that they don’t support Dutton.
But with many identical policies they do.
Both Labor and the LNP have as a priority:
1)USA,
2)Business, businesses who donate to Labor, the LNP and get the policy and taxpayer money they are looking for.
3)Wealthier Australians.
4)Cruelty to asylum seekers.
5)Limited almost no interest in environmental protection, 0.1% of any budget is spent here.
6) ignore global warming with the rush to increase fossil fuel – coal mine extensions and gas drilling.
As with all the above Labor and LNP are in lockstep. One of the duopolies most dangerous common ground.
7) Secrecy when it comes to the NACC exposing corruption. Hasn’t happened yet.
8) Refuse to increase the Medicare rebate so fewer Australians need to pay an often significant gap.
9) no dental in Medicare.
10) no accountability for the very generous taxpayers money given to the wealthy owners of aged care, child care, private hospital insurance, private schools receiving significantly more Federal money than public schools who take all levels of child disadvantage.
And the unfair Job Providers and the significant provider rorting in the NDIS.
Labor are scared of bad media. So it is easiest for them to retain power ( they hope ) if they align with Dutton and the LNP on most policies.
Yet Labor has a majority in the lower house.
And in the Senate, with the Greens and Independents (Labor 25, Greens 11, say Pocock, Lambie, Thorpe, at least 3 Independents) , they have sufficient to pass any Legislation against LNP (30), + even say 4 Independents.
To say Labor needs Dutton to support any legislation is just not true.
The truth is they want the support of Dutton or they won’t pass most legislation even if it is party policy as the ‘Nature Positive ‘ legislation is. Was an election promise in 2022. And earlier in 2018.
These facts can’t be denied. Even by C@t.
Current Labor MP loyalty to Dutton and the LNP visible to all.
Yep Albo went all in on Communist China instead of USA who he does not like as he is a leftie.
So China is dragging Australia down due to Fed labor appeasement of China who hate democracy.Trump may go after China for Covid damages as well.
After Covid it’s been well known western business on mass have been decoupling from China but fed labor hooked us back up to Chinas sinking economy.
57-43 labor up now behind 49-51 at least maybe more.
Irene says:
Sunday, February 2, 2025 at 5:44 pm
Another Gish Gallop. You didn’t get around to answering my question the other day.
Do you want Australia to experience deflation?
Lars Von Triersays:
Sunday, February 2, 2025 at 5:33 pm
Dodging the question Peter C?
Oh dear – you haven’t told them ur a men’s rights advocate have you?
====================================================
I don’t believe anyone on this site is obligated to respond to your stalking of them. It’s not like you have published, an autobiography of all your exact beliefs either.
If you going to make some accusation against someone. At least provide a copy of the post you are basing it on. Otherwise you just appear to be pulling garbage from nowhere.
No one has won this yet.
Err under labor services inflation is currently running above 4% that’s about 70% of the Australian economy.
Only the ignorant aka labor would argue deflation is an issue mind you fed labor Albanese government has given us two years of a percapita recession ,terrible economic growth ,high inflation,high spending,high taxing,2013 living standards,13 interest rate hikes and a partridge in a pear tree looking over its shoulder at being homeless due to Albos population Ponzi scheme.
Did the rorter pay back the taxpayer for his Airbus frolicks?
Public sector unions slugs and snails are labors masters at the expense of taxpayers.
terrible so terrible to have nothing substantial to complain about when you are privileged and haven’t had to do it really tough.
We have already had a corrupt right wing govt rort this place.
The conservative major parties have gone full dystopia on the planet and its inhabitants.
No compassion. No understanding. No empathy.
Irene
As the primary votes of the two majors continue to fall the preferential system will eventually fail to prop them up. A Grand Coalition will be relatively easy for the party leaders to organise but much harder to accept on PB.
Any ideas where this will be broadcast?
Griff says:
Sunday, February 2, 2025 at 5:48 pm
Irene says:
Sunday, February 2, 2025 at 5:44 pm
Another Gish Gallop. You didn’t get around to answering my question the other day.
Do you want Australia to experience deflation?
———————————++++
Deflation is a sustained decrease in the price of goods and services. It occurs when the inflation rate falls below zero.
Not sure anything I wrote equates to this?
And OC. Yes I agree a Grand Coalition of Labor and LNP is a very likely scenario. I wonder if after the next election?
Will cause much agitation and justifying here. I’d like to see that!
The American voting public can’t say they weren’t warned about the perilousness of a second Trump presidency. The Harris campaign, among many other critics, unsuccessfully brought its attention to what a cruel, revengeful & unprincipled man he is. Everything they were warned about is now coming to fruition – failing miserably to take note of Santayana’s strong injunction. This is just one example of how far he’s prepared to go.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NKo2kUY6RiY&t=294s
And I thought the Cuban missile crisis was scary. Further, Republican Senators had the opportunity to block the nominations of unsuited cabinet secretaries but were more concerned with their longevity – Freudian slip?
Confessions @6.16pm
“Any ideas where this will be broadcast?”
Maybe Youtube, but I can’t see where exactly. This is their website.
https://theshot.net.au/
Massive storm going through Geelong.
Thunder, lightning, hail, wind.
You name it. Were getting it.
Official Election campaign in WA starts Wednesday hopefully we will not have a blackout on polls like recent NT and QLD elections.
Yes OC bring on the Grand Coalition.
I am sure some of our posters will be well capable of the necessary contortions to justify the need for the Grand Coalition.
On reflection I agree with u that the grand coalition is a necessary precondition for the final collapse of the duopoly.
I’m not sure if it’s been mentioned, but Ken Martin has been elected as the DNC Chairman today.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/feb/01/ken-martin-chair-democratic-national-committee
He might turn out to be a good choice. He’s from Minnesota for a start and the Democrats have been fairly successful in that state for the past few election cycles, when on paper it would otherwise have voting patterns similar to Wisconsin and Michigan.
But I suppose we’ll have to see how all that turns out. As usual the first tests will be the off-year elections in New Jersey and Virginia that will take place in November, as well as the House of Reps special elections.
Did anybody see Paul Keating’s comments re Trump in the AFR?
Not exactly a condemnation – more saying Trump is more honest and may just avoid a major war.
Thank you Sohar. I’ll keep an eye out.
Looking back on the LVT posts over the last few pages, the Gen Z member has had the keyboard.
Pass the baton please!
A grand coalition sounds just grand to me.
Babet, Antic, Thorpe and Katter with the BOP. What could possibly go wRONg?
Today when Peter Dutton was asked to respond to the Qld floods he said..
” We are going to ban those woke mamby pamby wind turbines that caused the flood & build 4 new gas & coal fired power stations to heat the air & drive the rain clouds away”
Well, whatever else happens I think I can safely say that Trump has killed off any notion of the ‘rules based order’ for the foreseeable future.
Robert Reich:
”Trump is leading a move to replace democracy with oligarchy.
He’s implementing a plan to make the wealthiest people in America far wealthier and more powerful, including Trump himself, and to turn American democracy into a giant corporation run by a handful of absurdly rich men.
He thinks he can accomplish this by getting the rest of us so angry at one another — over immigration, LGBTQ+ rights, abortion, diversity, and the like — that we don’t look upward and see where most of the wealth and power have gone.”
https://open.substack.com/pub/robertreich/p/trumps-first-week-the-real-story?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email
sustainable snailsays:
Sunday, February 2, 2025 at 5:41 pm
[Spurred on by incessant hatred the right wing astro turfer keyboard warriors take their toxic and unique understandings of reality to new heights.]
to new lows!
FYI anyone in Moncrieff
I doubt that a Federal Grand Coalition is even possible in Australia at the moment, even if it were a good idea. The Coalition doesn’t do consenus or bipartisanship.
https://bsky.app/profile/sassisam.bsky.social/post/3lh4bsnyxmk2g
Remember steve777 – as Nelson Mandela said “Something is impossible until is done”
LVT: “Did anybody see Paul Keating’s comments re Trump in the AFR?
Not exactly a condemnation – more saying Trump is more honest and may just avoid a major war.”
———————————————————————-
Yes I saw them. Increasingly, PJK’s public commentary makes me feel a bit nauseous.
I interpreted what he said as being that, when the inevitable Chinese attack on Taiwan happens, Trump is less likely to respond militarily than would be a Democrat or other Republican President. And that would make PJK happy because he doesn’t give a toss about Taiwan, but is keen to keep being able to do whatever it is he does with the Chinese: presumably because it’s a nice little earner.
Could someone with Herald Sun access, kindly look at this article pls and check for any polling figures.
I’m expecting a Redbridge Poll to drop soon. Nothing from Kos Samaras yet, so could be a big nothing.
They released via the Daily Telegraph last time – Herald Sun is part of the same media network.
Link: https://www.heraldsun.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=HSWEB_WRE170_a&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.heraldsun.com.au%2Fnews%2Fvictoria%2Fbackroom-baz-polling-figures-put-jacinta-allans-future-in-doubt%2Fnews-story%2F0e8e6304f5f9a6752c680c7258cda0d1&memtype=anonymous&mode=premium&v21=GROUPA-Segment-2-NOSCORE
Seeing Irene’s and pied piper’s sequential posts (at 5:45), being utterly mutually exclusive yet equally incoherent, feels more like a parody than a serious discussion.
Your coordination is comedy gold.
”
Jackolsays:
Sunday, February 2, 2025 at 7:29 pm
Well, whatever else happens I think I can safely say that Trump has killed off any notion of the ‘rules based order’ for the foreseeable future.
”
Jackol
If Trump follows ‘rules based order’, he has to face consequences of being convicted felon, convicted sexual assaulter, fraudster.
He also told his MAGA followers that “I am your retribution ”
It may sound unbelievable but the POTUS said that.
Of course grand coalitions are not uncommon. They happen in Europe all the time. Their different electoral systems sometime necessitate this – proportional representation or MMP in many polities. One of the major motivations has been to keep the Far Right out of power. That won’t work here, where the Liberal and National parties have incorporated all but the most extreme on the Right* side of politics into their ranks.
* i.e. wrong
I don’t have an AFR subscription, but this seems on the money with today’s PK.
Such a shame.
You ok Taylomade?
meher babasays:
. And that would make PJK happy because he doesn’t give a toss about Taiwan, but is keen to keep being able to do whatever it is he does with the Chinese: presumably because it’s a nice little earner.
____________________________
I thought very highly of PJK until we found out he was on a Pratt retainer. But I have to wonder if I could knock back 300k a year for not a lot.
nadia88 says:
Sunday, February 2, 2025 at 7:46 pm
No new polling in the linked article.
Thks Griff – much appreciated.
Samaras mentioned last Monday that Redbridge was in the field, so I’m expecting a poll any day.
They usually do good samples too, ie: well > 2000 respondents.
Anyway, thks. We will wait.
22% primary polling figure for Allan. You’d have to say Dan Andrew’s timing was exquisite.
What we have seen is, on major policy issues, this government has sought to negotiate with the Coalition such that sustainable legislation is passed thru BOTH Houses of Parliament
The funding of political campaigns is the latest
The government has concluded (correctly in my view) that it is preferable to progress legislation with bilateral support – instead of relying on the support of the Greens in the Senate hence being held hostage by the Greens the latest episode being the delayed environment legislation
Parliament operates to the benefit of the Nation and its citizens
It is not a War Zone
So if the government, in seeking to pass its legislation seeks and responds to the Opposition, that surely is a responsible and sustainable path to progressing legislation (noting the need to pass the legislation thru the Upper House where neither of the major parties carry the numbers (and probably never will given this is Australia)
So do you paralyse legislation on the alter of the Greens and radicalism or do you negotiate with the Opposition parties?
The problem is, as the history instructs, those on the opposition benches are no better than the Greens, opposing everything thinking there is political advantage in opposing
Noting the Senate as the ultimate arbitrator
And given the foregoing, why the parliament is described as a kindergarten
The invitations to the Opposition have been there
Unfortunately things have not improved since the Rudd days and his attempts for more civility in the parliament
Remember the courtesies he offered the Howard’s in their shifting of abode?
The ability of the government to garner the support of the Teals, including by the civility on offer in the House (versus the other side) is noted
Albanese and his government are respectful and they acknowledge contributions (noting no one is ever always right just as no one is always wrong).
The numbers are never tested in that House
It is the Senate which is the problem – and the Greens and their naivety in matters of commerce and industry and the intersection of commerce and industry with the Globe
dave: “I thought very highly of PJK until we found out he was on a Pratt retainer. But I have to wonder if I could knock back 300k a year for not a lot.”
I am with you on that. But PJK already has a lot of money, so he could possibly afford to have more scruples.
40m from the Telstra deal for one. Over 80 yrs old how much more could he want ?
Well that’s true MB. That’s what his pension was supposed to enable. Scruples.
If I was a billionaire I would definitely have Ross Cameron on 300k for the odd chat.
Vensays:
Sunday, February 2, 2025 at 7:48 pm
”
Jackolsays:
Sunday, February 2, 2025 at 7:29 pm
Well, whatever else happens I think I can safely say that Trump has killed off any notion of the ‘rules based order’ for the foreseeable future.
”
Jackol
If Trump follows ‘rules based order’, he has to face consequences of being convicted felon, convicted sexual assaulter, fraudster.
He also told his MAGA followers that “I am your retribution ”
It may sound unbelievable but the POTUS said that.
===============================================
“I am your retribution”
Talk about someone with a God complex.
“Vengeance is mine, and I will repay, says the Lord.”
Though he should of done this one instead, far more appropriate for his current actions.
“I am become Death, the destroyer of worlds”
Lars – Samaras has suggested things are grim in Vic, so I suppose he has access to preliminary data, but as yet not published. He “tweeted” this last week & after the Resolve poll came out.
He mentioned the poll data would come out before the by-elections this Saturday, so hopefully this week, or maybe tonight or overnight.
I see James Campbell is busy on the Herald Sun tonight. Campbell dropped the last polling figures from memory.
Who’s playing parts of Jacob and Wilhelm tonight ?
Lots of possible candidates auditioning for the “on going” sort after roles.
Could Victoria be the first sub 2- state ?