Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.
The US presidential election is on November 5. In Nate Silver’s aggregate of US national polls, Kamala Harris has a 49.3-46.1 lead over Donald Trump (49.3-46.2 in my previous US election article for The Conversation on Monday). In presidential elections, the Electoral College is decisive, not the national popular vote. Harris has at least a one-point lead in enough states to win the Electoral College by a 276-262 margin.
The New York Times released polls from the highly regarded Siena on Tuesday, which had good and bad news for Harris. Siena’s national poll gave Harris a 49-46 lead, her best position in this poll. But Trump led by a thumping 55-41 in Florida, which used to be a swing state. This caused Silver’s Florida aggregate to move two points in Trump’s favour, and he now leads by 5.5 points there.
On Wednesday, Quinnipiac polls of Wisconsin and Michigan gave Trump 2-3 point leads, though Harris had a three-point lead in Pennsylvania. Silver’s model now gives Harris a 53.5% chance to win the Electoral College, down from 56% on Monday. There’s a 23% chance that Harris wins the popular vote, but loses the Electoral College. The FiveThirtyEight model is now very close to Silver, with Harris a 53% chance to win.
Two right-wing candidates to contest UK Conservative leadership
As in previous UK Conservative leadership elections, the final two candidates are selected by Conservative MPs, with Conservative party members to choose between these final candidates. At Wednesday’s final round of MPs’ votes, the right-wing Kemi Badenoch won 42 of the 120 votes, the right-wing Robert Jenrick 41 and the more centrist James Cleverly 37.
Cleverly had easily won the previous round of MPs’ votes on Tuesday with 39 votes, followed by Jenrick on 31 and Badenoch on 30. It’s likely that a tactical voting blunder caused him to finish third and be eliminated, with some of his supporters voting for Jenrick as they thought Cleverly had a better chance to beat Jenrick than Badenoch in the members’ vote.
Members will now decide between Badenoch and Jenrick by an online vote, with the final result to be announced November 2. A late September YouGov poll of Conservative members gave Badenoch a 41-38 lead over Jenrick.
Labour and PM Keir Starmer’s dreadful start to the term continues, with a recent More in Common poll giving Labour just a 29-28 lead over the Conservatives with 19% for Reform and 11% for the Liberal Democrats, although three other early October polls gave Labour 5-8 point leads. The latest two polls that have asked about Starmer’s ratings have him at net -30 (Opinium) and net -36 (YouGov).
Far-right wins most seats in Austria
Austria uses proportional representation with a 4% threshold to elect its 183 seats. At the September 29 election, the far-right FPÖ won 57 seats (up 26 since the 2019 election), the conservative ÖVP 51 seats (down 20), the centre-left SPÖ 41 (up one), the liberal NEOS 18 (up three) and the Greens 16 (down ten).
The FPÖ had its best result in an Austrian election and it was the first time since World War Two that a far-right party has won the most seats. However, the FPÖ is well short of the 92 seats needed for a majority. The ÖVP and the Greens had formed a coalition government after the 2019 election. A coalition between the ÖVP and SPÖ is the only way to keep the FPÖ out of government.
Japanese election: October 27
The conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has formed government after every Japanese election since 1955 except after the 2009 election. Of the 465 lower house seats, 289 are elected by first-past-the-post, while the remaining 176 are elected using proportional representation in 11 multi-member electorates.
This election is being held a year early after Shigeru Ishiba replaced Fumio Kishida as LDP leader and PM on September 27 and called an early election. Polls indicate the LDP is far ahead of their nearest party rival, the centre-left Constitutional Democrats, but there’s a large “no party” vote. The LDP should easily win yet another election.
Guys
Watch the video in this tweet posted by Colin Allred, Texas Democratic candidate. This is one of clips of Allred and Cuz Senate debate.
Colin Allred
@ColinAllredTX
On January 6, I got ready to defend my colleagues and texted my wife: “Whatever happens, I love you.”
Ted Cruz was hiding in a supply closet. If you summon a mob to overturn a free and fair election, you should lose your job. This election is his accountability.
#TXSenateDebate
https://x.com/ColinAllredTX/status/1846349831951786128?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1846349831951786128%7Ctwgr%5E24ab4e50ac15d85652f6f5e9675c3eeafd00bcd0%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailykos.com%2Fstories%2F2024%2F10%2F15%2F2277136%2F-Colin-Allred-has-a-word-about-Ted-Cruz
The claim is that the pollsters affiliated with MAGA are producing shit polls. They are following the money. Unlike here, looking like a winner is deemed electorally favourable in the US and especially so when the POTUS candidate stakes his whole identity on being one.
MAGA peeps want to feel like they are on the winning team. It actually drives turnout. Trump knows this. That is why he dumps hard on any affiliated poll that publishes bad numbers.
Also, being able to claim he is ahead in some polls will help in post a losing election.
This isnt a conspiracy theory. Many of these polls are outright banned from the 538 averages and many more are weighted very softly. The conspiracy theory is that they fudge their polls and publish en masse to alter polling averages. But you dont have to go this far, you can simply leave it at MAGA affiliated pollsters selectively publishing the polls they choose to help their team. They probably do a little push polling here and there or adjust based on biased assumptions.
The long standing MAGA pollsters with some reputation to will refrain from this sort of behaviour closer to the election.
The Marist poll is another coffin nail for Dancing Don, but MAGA cash cows are juicing the betting markets, bringing their proto-Pol Pot in to $1.70, and I am pumping $50s into this bad boy like it’s complimentary schooners in the gaming lounge at the East Cessnock Bowling Club. Is it an orchestrated effort to help their orange overlord maintain a credible narrative? Who cares it’s free money and I am grabbing as much as I can get.
FUBAR @ #738 Wednesday, October 16th, 2024 – 4:23 pm
You appear to deny that Jan-6 was a Trump-incited insurrection that came very close to succeeding. I think many would (quite fairly) construe that as supporting Trump.
FUBAR says Wednesday, October 16, 2024 at 5:35 pm
The Democrats could have nominated Jesus F Christ and Trump would likely still have similar levels of support as he has now. It’s not the Democrats who are supporting Trump. If he gets elected the people deserving of blame should be the ones who voted for and facilitated him, not his opponents.
I do agree that Biden should not have stood for reelection.
Can sprocket_ post up the Marist poll, I am too lazy and drunk/stupid, thanks.
Will they turn out though?
It was a demonstration that became a riot. It was not an insurrection. They couldn’t take control of anything. That’s not supporting Trump or the dickheads who went into the Capitol. It’s just facts. I have no problem with the book being thrown at the dickheads involved – should be more of it for all violent protests.
That’s just a cop out.
Harris has improved on Biden’s numbers. A centrist non-woke Democrat should easily beat Trump. There’s plenty of them.
In view of Donald Trump’s witless and often scary meanderings, it is worth remembering how just three months ago the discussion was all about Joe Biden’s decline, with what eventually proved irresistible pressure on him to resign.
But compare the pair. Joe Biden may be past his peak, but he is obviously vastly more grounded in the real world than his opponent. He may be slower in the cut and thrust of debate, but when it comes to serious decisions, I’d take Biden over Trump any day. Decline or not, Joe Biden’s moral compass is intact. Donald Trump never had one.
Further, the President surrounded by a bright and competent team, not least his Vice President, who would compensate for his deficiencies. On the other hand, Donald Trump is surrounded by a bunch of chancers, extremists and whackos.
And nearly half of Americans would consider voting for Trump?
Harris is no better than a 40% chance by my calculations. I think Trump is very very slight value (not really worth a bet) in the wagering markets as we speak.
At everyone of the last four Presidential elections there has been a swing against the party that has held the White house.Obama in 2008 got a 9.6% swing, Romney in 2012 3.3%, Trump 1.8% in 2016 and Biden 2.4% in 2020.
The best case scenario I can see for Harris is she lands about where Obama did in 2012 when he won the popular vote by 3.9% vote worst case is she lands about where Clinton did in 2016 and wins the popular vote by about 2%.
The median of that would be 3 but with the disadvantage of holding the white house I think it will more likely end up with Trump getting about the same swing as he got in 2016 and Democrats losing the popular vote by about 2.7 and I think that will give him about a 60% chance of winning because scratch for the Democrats to me looks about 3.2.
The fact the poll aggregates are coming up with similar numbers to what historical trends would suggest and the betting markets are actually in line with the polls makes me suspect they are probably going to nail it this time at least as far as the popular vote is concerned.
Omar Comin’ says:
Wednesday, October 16, 2024 at 6:02 pm
Is that like the free money Sportsbet paid out in 2019?
FUBAR – What was the aim of the rioters?
Not sure why I’m not seeing the post from Mike Madrid@madrid_mike
FUBAR, the bills I took from the delusional MAGAts in 2020 smell like bacon but that could be due to me rubbing them on my nipples
I haven’t posted on the U.S. blog since July.
Who do posters think will win (note, not who do you want to win).
Who do you think will win?
Vox pop pls
Bellwether says:
Wednesday, October 16, 2024 at 6:20 pm
You’d have to ask the participants. And, guess what, they have been – in their court cases.
They had no plan to take over the United States. For whatever reason, the security forces botched the control of the protest and it became a riot and they were able to break into the Capitol. The plonkers then wandered around until they were rounded up.
There’s very specific things that define an insurrection – almost none of which existed. They didn’t take control of any source of power. There was zero support from the military or security services. They didn’t take control of any communications such as TV or a radio station. They didn’t seize any transportation hubs. Nothing that they did met the definition of an insurrection.
”
Kirsdarkesays:
Wednesday, October 16, 2024 at 5:57 pm
At least one good thing happened today, 100-year-old former President Jimmy Carter was able to cast his early vote for Harris in Georgia.
Just one vote, but a significant one. His remaining days alive might be few in number, but maybe he’ll last a few more weeks to see Harris win.
”
Kirsdarke
Jimmy Carter is the last US President from Georgia (maybe the only one from Georgia, idk). He is the only decent, ethical and moral person to be US President post WW2. IMO, if his opponent wasn’t Gerald Ford, he could have lost 1976 election.
Georgians should fullfill his last wish and vote for Kamala Harris in this election.
Omar Comin’ says:
Wednesday, October 16, 2024 at 6:26 pm
You do you.
Proud of you. Keep it up.
Partisan polling in the US breaks 2:1 to the Republicans. It’s a thing, look it up.
Hey Ven,
Haven’t seen you for a while. I see you’ve been busy on the U.S. thread.
Where are things tracking in your opinion?
nadia88 says:
Wednesday, October 16, 2024 at 6:30 pm
I had previously said Harris. Extremely underwhelmed now, but have not changed the call, yet.
Despite my embarrassing meltdowns on Sunday and Monday, which I’m ashamed about and I apologise for, I’m leaning toward a Harris win now.
Trump’s 40 minute “trance” yesterday at his rally was, plain simply, weird.
I reckon a lot of people over there would see that and think what American comedian Reginald D Hunter said on Good News Week back in 2009 when he witnessed the entire Australian audience sing the Vegemite song.
nadia88: “I haven’t posted on the U.S. blog since July.
Who do posters think will win (note, not who do you want to win).
Who do you think will win?
Vox pop pls”
—————————————————————————–
With great pain and sadness, particularly on behalf of my Ukrainian and Taiwanese friends, I am going to say that I think Trump will win (the electoral college: he’ll almost certainly lose in terms of the total votes cast).
I also believe the Republicans will win the Senate, and I think the House is a toss up.
@Mostly Interested.
Yeh that explains Trump out performing the polling aggregates at the last two elections.Stop smoking copium or the aches and pains might be very painful come Nov 6.
On current indicators the more likely result is Trump wins, you would need to be letting cognitive bias corrupt your thinking to reach any other conclusion.
Still time for data to start trending her way and her chances to improve but suggestions that they will are just tea leaf reading. All one can do is look at the numbers as they stand today.
nadia88 @ #766 Wednesday, October 16th, 2024 – 6:30 pm
Unless Harris’s polling improves, I’d say Trump. It will later be proven to be a fraudulent win, but it will not be overturned.
How Trump allies stoked election chaos in Detroit in 2020 — and what they’re planning in 2024
Trump campaign and RNC staffers were central players in attempts to “stop the count” in Detroit in 2020, an NBC News investigation reveals. Next month, they claim 200,000 “patriots” will volunteer to watch the polls.
https://www-nbcnews-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna174091?amp_gsa=1&_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQIUAKwASCAAgM%3D#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=17290653154421&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&share=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nbcnews.com%2Fpolitics%2F2024-election%2Ftrump-election-chaos-detroit-misinformation-rcna174091
@Howlin wolves, thanks for your analysis and can I say I am banking on more just like it, and many thanks to the stooge polls that “flooded the zone” as they say.
It’s tough, but we’re 20 days out and getting to the meaty end.
Couple of hours time we’re 19 days away from the next U.S. Pres election.
I’m not interested in attacking posters views either way, just interested in your political intuition.
Thanks for responses so far.
As mentioned 3 months ago – I hope “yo’all” posters take a sickie ( or no Grand kids) on Weds 6-Nov (our time). Will be a big day.
”
nadia88says:
Wednesday, October 16, 2024 at 6:40 pm
Hey Ven,
Haven’t seen you for a while. I see you’ve been busy on the U.S. thread.
Where are things tracking in your opinion?
”
As per early voting trends (not polls), Democratic party voters are voting in large numbers in early voting. The margin is about 51 %(Dems), 33% (Reps) and rest 16% (others).
Oh Howlin Wolves, “Copium” is a gas that drops from masks in the panel above the seats of the Trump Train after the election, “Hopium” is what they smoke before the election, such as when Marist drops a crippling bombshell on their beleaguered campaign.
No, no, no Ven, no hiding behind “early voting trends”.
I want your personal opinion pls. You and Fess have been all over this blog, and I’ll barrel Fess when she logs on.
Who will win (in your opinion)?
Trump or Harris.
I’m interested in the opinions of committed posters. We are getting close – less than 3 weeks now.
Harris.
Over 300000 people voted on day 1 of in person early voting in Georgia as per Georgia Secretary of State.
It is more than double the previous record.
”
nadia88says:
Wednesday, October 16, 2024 at 7:08 pm
No, no, no Ven, no hiding behind “early voting trends”.
I want your personal opinion pls. You and Fess have been all over this blog, and I’ll barrel Fess when she logs on.
Who will win (in your opinion)?
Trump or Harris.
I’m interested in the opinions of committed posters. We are getting close – less than 3 weeks now.
”
Not now nadia. Probably closer to election.
Barrel me? I’ve been honest with my opinions and they’ve so far turned out to be accurate.
Why you feel you need to “barrel me” about my opinion is anyone’s guess. But FWIW as I’ve said all along, this is a close race. It is Trump’s to lose, but Harris has made great grounds on his margins.
Who will win? Who knows? This is a MOE election, a coin toss election. If I had to lay money right now I’d say Harris holds the advantage, but Trump is attempting to swamp the airwaves and the polls in the final weeks.
I’ve posted my thoughts on his strategy down thread.
nadia
I thought Harris would lead by much more bigger margin in polls in reliable polls after initial enthusiasm for Harris till end of September. But that did not happen. I am disappointed about that.
In the meantime, NYT/Sienna polls, which were doom and gloom for Dems, there is improvement in their numbers in favour of Harris team.
The ground game and financial support of Democrats is very good.
Some analysts say ground game in USA is worth about 3%. So there is that.
Ok Ven.
There will be a “1 week to the U.S. election” thread in a fortnight.
I will chase you around then!
Thanks to you too for your diligent posting.
First Muslim mayor of Michigan city endorses Trump for president
https://mynbc15.com/news/beyond-the-podium/first-muslim-mayor-of-michigan-city-endorses-trump-for-president-2024-election-politics-kamala-harris-amer-ghalib-flint-middle-east-palestine-israel-democrats-gaza-biden-uncommitted-third-party-voters
Marist Poll….
Harris +5 Points Against Trump Nationally
In the presidential contest, Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump by five points among likely voters, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate. The race gets closer, however, among registered voters nationally. Here, three points separate the two candidates.
Marist Poll Likely Voters. Interviews conducted October 8th through October 10th, 2024, n=1,401 MOE +/- 3.9 percentage points. Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding.
Harris (52%) leads Trump (47%) among likely voters nationally, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate. Earlier this month, two points separated Harris (50%) and Trump (48%) among likely voters.
The contest is tighter among registered voters. Among the general electorate, Harris receives 51% to 48% for Trump. In early October, the same margin separated Harris (50%) and Trump (47%) among the broader electorate.
https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/the-u-s-presidential-contest-october-16-2024/
Full poll https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Marist-Poll_USA-NOS-and-Tables_202410150832.pdf
Trump is 54% chance to win media reporting .
Trump is 54% chance to win media reporting .
Biden will be sayin……
Harris will win, relatively comfortable margin.
Harris is choppin’ wood, carrying water.
Trump is angry uncle, dancing queen.
Omar Comin’
You’re on fire, keep on serving it up to them!
I’m loving the Republican money coming for Trump too, keep it up Trumpsters!
Money for jam backing Harris/Walz!
Looking at the Marist Poll cross tabs..
1% of likely voters voting for a 3rd party
11% of Republicans voting for Harris – likely (8% the other way)
13% of registered Republicans say Harris (9% the other way)
White vote is close
Harris 48
Trump 51
Black vote, not so much
Harris 75
Trump 23
https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Marist-Poll_USA-NOS-and-Tables_202410150832.pdf
Hey Stooge my friend.
Hope all’s good with you.
Good to see you being very strong on this thread.
Keep it up!
What’s the sound of one hand clapping.
Confessions says:
Wednesday, October 16, 2024 at 7:27 pm
and I’ll barrel Fess when she logs on.
Barrel me? I’ve been honest with my opinions and they’ve so far turned out to be accurate.
Why you feel you need to “barrel me” about my opinion is anyone’s guess.
=============================
Surprised you chose to “take offence” at that comment Fess. I actually thought we got along quite well.
“Barrel me” is code speak for asking your opinion, which I suppose I value as you have been active on the U.S thread.
But OK, no probs. Sorry you chose to take offence at a simple question.
So you are Harris
Big update to the early vote tally on NBC.
Dems now +6 points in terms of ballots actually cast versus ballots requested. Reps are +3 (both are in positive territory because ‘Other’ is -9).
This is an increase in the (notional) Dem advantage on response rate/follow-through.