Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.
The US presidential election is on November 5. In Nate Silver’s aggregate of US national polls, Kamala Harris has a 49.3-46.1 lead over Donald Trump (49.3-46.2 in my previous US election article for The Conversation on Monday). In presidential elections, the Electoral College is decisive, not the national popular vote. Harris has at least a one-point lead in enough states to win the Electoral College by a 276-262 margin.
The New York Times released polls from the highly regarded Siena on Tuesday, which had good and bad news for Harris. Siena’s national poll gave Harris a 49-46 lead, her best position in this poll. But Trump led by a thumping 55-41 in Florida, which used to be a swing state. This caused Silver’s Florida aggregate to move two points in Trump’s favour, and he now leads by 5.5 points there.
On Wednesday, Quinnipiac polls of Wisconsin and Michigan gave Trump 2-3 point leads, though Harris had a three-point lead in Pennsylvania. Silver’s model now gives Harris a 53.5% chance to win the Electoral College, down from 56% on Monday. There’s a 23% chance that Harris wins the popular vote, but loses the Electoral College. The FiveThirtyEight model is now very close to Silver, with Harris a 53% chance to win.
Two right-wing candidates to contest UK Conservative leadership
As in previous UK Conservative leadership elections, the final two candidates are selected by Conservative MPs, with Conservative party members to choose between these final candidates. At Wednesday’s final round of MPs’ votes, the right-wing Kemi Badenoch won 42 of the 120 votes, the right-wing Robert Jenrick 41 and the more centrist James Cleverly 37.
Cleverly had easily won the previous round of MPs’ votes on Tuesday with 39 votes, followed by Jenrick on 31 and Badenoch on 30. It’s likely that a tactical voting blunder caused him to finish third and be eliminated, with some of his supporters voting for Jenrick as they thought Cleverly had a better chance to beat Jenrick than Badenoch in the members’ vote.
Members will now decide between Badenoch and Jenrick by an online vote, with the final result to be announced November 2. A late September YouGov poll of Conservative members gave Badenoch a 41-38 lead over Jenrick.
Labour and PM Keir Starmer’s dreadful start to the term continues, with a recent More in Common poll giving Labour just a 29-28 lead over the Conservatives with 19% for Reform and 11% for the Liberal Democrats, although three other early October polls gave Labour 5-8 point leads. The latest two polls that have asked about Starmer’s ratings have him at net -30 (Opinium) and net -36 (YouGov).
Far-right wins most seats in Austria
Austria uses proportional representation with a 4% threshold to elect its 183 seats. At the September 29 election, the far-right FPÖ won 57 seats (up 26 since the 2019 election), the conservative ÖVP 51 seats (down 20), the centre-left SPÖ 41 (up one), the liberal NEOS 18 (up three) and the Greens 16 (down ten).
The FPÖ had its best result in an Austrian election and it was the first time since World War Two that a far-right party has won the most seats. However, the FPÖ is well short of the 92 seats needed for a majority. The ÖVP and the Greens had formed a coalition government after the 2019 election. A coalition between the ÖVP and SPÖ is the only way to keep the FPÖ out of government.
Japanese election: October 27
The conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has formed government after every Japanese election since 1955 except after the 2009 election. Of the 465 lower house seats, 289 are elected by first-past-the-post, while the remaining 176 are elected using proportional representation in 11 multi-member electorates.
This election is being held a year early after Shigeru Ishiba replaced Fumio Kishida as LDP leader and PM on September 27 and called an early election. Polls indicate the LDP is far ahead of their nearest party rival, the centre-left Constitutional Democrats, but there’s a large “no party” vote. The LDP should easily win yet another election.
Hugo Lowell of The Guardian US is assigned to the Trump campaign, and his insights always of interest..
New — Elon Musk donated $75m to America PAC, which is doing the bulk of the Trump campaign’s ground game work across the battleground states. Musk donated $15m in July, $30m in August and $30m in September, per FEC filings. Notably, he’s the PAC’s only donor.
America PAC has spent roughly $30m of that money doing Trump’s ground game thru a number of vendors: current list includes Blitz Canvassing, Echo Canyon, Stampede/Patriot Grassroots and the Synapse Group. That’s 40% of the money gone to a field operation of questionable success
Should just call that “bribery”.
As per NBC early voting trends
Early voting Georgia:
328,754 mail-in and early in-person votes cast
Registered Democrats: 48%
Registered Republicans: 45%
Other: 7%
Elon Musk paying canvassers to go door to door with a walking map reminds me of Big Gina paying a busload of Irish backpackers to go up to New England to man the booths for her boy Barnyard.
The billionaire way of winning an election…
Money talks, bullshit walks…
Vice President Kamala Harris and the Democratic Party have dwarfed former President Donald Trump and the Republican Party in joint fundraising over the last three months, the latest campaign disclosure filings show.
Harris Victory Fund and Harris Action Fund, the joint fundraising committees between the Harris campaign, the DNC and state Democratic Party committees, together raised $652 million between July and September this year, according to new filings.
That amounted to nearly twice the $340 million that their GOP equivalents, the Trump 47 Committee and Trump National Committee, raised during the same period, the filings show.
https://abcnews.go.com/US/democrats-joint-fundraising-doubles-republicans-3-months-filings/story?id=114843249
Must be a Qld thing, I’ve never heard of it. And don’t go all passive aggressive on me simply because I’ve called you on your terminology. That would be disappointing, I have to say.
As to the presidential election, my thoughts are clear, as I’ve laid out over the past few weeks.
Who do you reckon will win Been There.
Note not who do you want to win?
Trump lost his mind over the announcement of Harris’ interview on Fox News and posted on his social media:
“Lyin’ Kamala Harris has wisely chosen Bret Baier, of FoxNews, to do a much needed interview, because he is considered to be ‘Fair & Balanced,’ though often very soft to those on the ‘cocktail circuit’ Left. I would have preferred seeing a more hard hitting journalist, but Fox has grown so weak and soft on the Democrats, constantly polluting the airwaves with unopposed Kamala Representatives, that it all doesn’t matter anymore. Hopefully, the people will understand on November 5th, and Early Voting. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!”
I hope so Fess, because we always got along on this site.
nadia:
Please don’t barrel me and we will continue to get along.
Hi Nadia
I’m very confident Harris/Walz will win due to the silent female vote re abortion issues.
Victoria has pointed this fact out multiple times but most choose to disregard and some disrespect.
Yes, I want Harris/Walz team to win, as does most of the decent world.
I think the results will be;
President – Harris
House – Democrats by 4 or 5
Senate – Republicans by 1
I was simply after your opinion Fess, but it appears to have been misread by you, for reasons unknown.
Perhaps you were following the lead of others.
We shan’t cross paths again.
nadia, I’ve backed Harris since she replaced Biden, and I still do. Harris by a country mile but I will accept 270 EC votes. And don’t become disheartened by some of the nastiness of
some posters. I like you as I think many do on this site.
During Bush Jr and Obama , Dredge report was rabidly right wing. It probably is even now, idk
But now this
@Been There thank you, thank you, I will print and frame your comment and place it on my “hate wall” to help me maintain my 24/7 hypervigilant anti-MAGA snark patrol, which is really the least I can do.
Thanks Mavis.
Tough copping a dagger from a surprising source, but I shall soldier on.
I meant no harm.
Hope all’s well with you down at the Goldie!
Nadia
I must admit I was a bit taken aback by your terminology at first. It was an unusual way of putting it. But I’m surprised that Confessions took such a hard line over it, even after you explained that you meant no offense.
Have the polls been catching up to the betting markets yet?
The last time I reported betting market action, they read the following:
Trump 55%
Harris 45%
Still plunging Harris/Walz Centre!
What are you doing except searching for a bite?
Have the polls been catching up to the betting markets yet?
Hello I am the publisher of the Nimbin Good Times and I am wondering if you would be interested in writing an opinion piece for our Widely Respected Journal Of Record?
Hey Been There
My betting position on this US election is neutral.
I’ve backed Kamala at $2.40, then again at $2.12, before cashing out on Trump at $2.00.
Regardless of who wins, I’ve shown a slight gain. Although I might be tempted to have another bet…
I look forward to your Everest, Caulfield Cup tips, see how good you are 🙂
Sorry Centre you should know better.
I’m not going to cut my prices, especially knowing we have some money people on this site.
Been There
What… lol you are kidding
Nobody on this site is going to cut your odds lol
You said you were going to check your parameters on those races and let us know?
Don’t worry, I’ll give you the winner of The Everest on Friday night 😉
Centre
My selections will come Friday night too.
Load up your betting accounts people!
Cheers
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PYh2koOUmQA
Daily kos
Abbreviated Pundit Roundup:
The polls can’t help us to know who will win, even if they are correct (and they won’t be). What we see now is margin of error stuff. But there’s plenty of status quo out there, if you are so inclined. For example:, this is from Morning Consult (Harris 50-46, lead down 2 points, still 50 or more). There’s not much movement since Sept. 1.
weekly Morning Consult poll
And just today we have MULaw (national) tied, and NPR/Marist +5 and TIPP +4.
And AARP has Michigan tied, which was a two point Trump lead in their last poll
Steve777 @ #761 Wednesday, October 16th, 2024 – 6:18 pm
Trump has gotten a pass because he and his team came up with a genius term for his incoherent rambling-the ‘Weave’. Simple as that. He euphemised it into non-existence.
That and the fact that journalists that actually cause problems for Trump generally get threats of pipe bombs in their mailboxes, or actual pipe bombs.
In GA, watch 2 old white guys, who always voted Republican, say now
James Singer
@Jemsinger
WATCH: In most pro-Trump country in GA, two voters say why they won’t vote for Trump:
On January 6th: “I feel like he’s anti-American. He’s trying to overthrow our government”
“Last time you say him talking did you watch his lips? Were they moving? He’s lying.”
https://x.com/Jemsinger/status/1846157287636746548?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1846157287636746548%7Ctwgr%5Ec4846a7d9aff28e5930f0526b323f089a80793b9%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailykos.com%2Fstories%2F2024%2F10%2F16%2F2276975%2F-Abbreviated-Pundit-Roundup-The-polls-can-t-predict-a-close-election
evads @ #813 Wednesday, October 16th, 2024 – 8:35 pm
I agree, except for the Senate, which I think will be 50-50.
C@tmomma @ #832 Wednesday, October 16th, 2024 – 9:37 pm
One of the stupider things that’s happened this cycle. 🙁
Only consolation is that Trump thinks he can get away with more than he can. “THEY’RE EATING THE PETS!!1” was a step too far. May he take many more over the next few weeks.
Barrell is a term I’ve never heard of in the context exposed until tonight.
I can understand someone taking offence at the term.
Fess took it the wrong way and replied with some vindictive.
Nadia apologised for the misunderstanding but Fess wanted to carry on.
Now it looks like we’ve lost Nadia and her insights.
Fess is a decent poster too.
Lose/lose situation at the moment.
Hopefully things can be fixed, reach out, it’s not that hard.
@ Centre
Betting market is actually lagging behind the polling latest 538 aggregate is Harris +2.4 that is 60 – 40 Trump territory and that is being conservative.
Remember you can’t make money following money you got to price it up yourself somehow and if you don’t use polling as at least part of the equation you are just another mug punter betting on gut feeling.
Why would you bother betting off the 538 national aggregate when they have state-level averages for every state that matters?
Heh Gang.
I love youse all, but can we keep the personal vitriol to the main stream, please?
Nadia, I’m not sure if you have me down on your sweep, but I’m firmly in the Harris/Walz camp on wishcasting, but I think Trump will emerge as President, whether he wins the election or not. Ironically he who has been whinging about stolen elections etc for the last 8 years is probably going to steal this one. Not metaphorically but literally.
Again the fact that it is “close” is extraordinary- it should be 90/10 just on candidate selection vs Whomever runs against Trump.
Sorry for being pessimistic, but democracy is dead. The only way to save democracy and beat the “shy fascists” is for women to turn out en masse to protect their rights. Cat ladies, it is down to you. For Kamala to emerge victorious she needs to thump Trump across the board.
And put me in the Nadia fan club list – always analytical, always on point and adds to the discourse. A true Pseph tragic. (‘Fess has clearly misinterpreted your queries – You two need to put it down to a misunderstanding and resume debate! Love youse both.)
No gut feeling there howling wolves
Just not pandering to the hysteria that Trumps a cert!
Isn’t that a gut feeling for many?
Gut feeling has nothing to do with my betting on a Harris/Walz win.
It’s more about the reality.
If people can’t see it by now, they never will!
Some people need to have a long hard look at themselves in the mirror.
You’ve always had a delicate way of putting yourself FUBAR.
Conflict resolution is obviously not one of your learned skills!
Anyway I’m going to bed.
Very special day for me today.
Love youse all!
I’m fascinated by the Nebraska Senate race, Nadia.
Because, it seems Montana could be lost , but with a dem President, they could still get stuff done in the Senate.
And, also, I’m feeling really anxious about the big race.
I’m now going by Damon, as there’s another Damo that I’ve seen. !
Pretty sure I’m not the one driving other posters of the site.
Been There says:
Wednesday, October 16, 2024 at 7:57 pm
Hey Stooge my friend.
Hope all’s good with you.
Good to see you being very strong on this thread.
Keep it up!
Been There, so good to see you too. I’m very well, thank you. I’ve been pre-occupied with some family matters and with some creative projects, but have been logging on here when I can.
Like you, I’m confident that Harris will win. The MAGA-infected will do whatever they can to frustrate the democratic process but I reckon the data – that is, not the polls – evident in the early voting trends, the registrations, the donations, the attendances at rallies, the participation of women all signal a clear advantage for Harris. The Democrats will leave no stone unturned in the swing contests. The voters who have been serially insulted, abused and degraded by Trump are about to deliver their rebuke.
The polls are not data. They are satay sticks: designed to tempt the diner to come back for more.
See you again soon my friend. Good luck with the wagers.
I think it’s smart of Harris to appear on Fox News for a 30-minute interview with Bret Baier. I recently read that quite a few swinging voters prefer Fox to CNN & MSNBC.
[‘Judge blocks hand-counting of election ballots in Georgia
In a ruling late Tuesday, Fulton County Superior Court Judge Robert McBurney wrote that the so-called hand count rule “is too much, too late,” after the State Election Board passed a rule in September requiring that three poll workers each count the paper ballots by hand after the polls close. McBurney blocked its enforcement while he considered the merits of the case.’] – AP
I’d love Harris to go on Joe Rogan. I doubt she will. He’d have far too many tough questions. He could start on the many issues around the COVID Pandemic and go from there.
New thread.