Three new federal poll results:
• The monthly Resolve Strategic poll from Nine Newspapers has Labor up two to 30%, the Coalition up one to 38%, the Greens down one to 12% and One Nation down one to 5%. This pollster does not provide two-party preferred, but if the 15% none-of-the-above vote is treated as a single (it includes an unlikely 12% independent vote), the result is almost exactly 50-50 based on preference flows in 2022. Both leaders are steady on approval and down a point on disapproval, Anthony Albanese to 35% and 52% and Peter Dutton to 41% and 41%, with Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister out from 35-34 to 38-35. The poll also finds a telling 55% professing no opinion as to which party has better handled the situation in the Middle East, with 22% favouring “Peter Dutton and the Liberals” and 18% “Anthony Albanese and Labor”. It was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1606.
• The weekly Roy Morgan poll had a tie on two-party preferred after a 51-49 result to the Coalition last time, from primary votes of Labor 31.5% (up one-and-a-half), Coalition 37.5% (down half), Greens 12.5% (down one) and One Nation 5.5% (up one). Using the two-party measure based on 2022 election flows, Labor leads 52-48, out from 51.5-48.5 The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1697.
• The Guardian’s routine early drop of the fortnightly Essential Research poll doesn’t include voting intention results. Stay tuned for later today on that one.
UPDATE: Essential Research’s voting intention results have Labor up three points to 32%, the Coalition down one to 34%, the Greens steady on 12%, One Nation steady on 8%, and undecided unchanged at 5%. The 2PP+ measure has Labor leading 49-47, with the balance undecided, after trailing 48-47 a fortnight ago. Further questions find fully 40% saying “our political system needs fundamental change”, compared with 48% who think it “needs some reform but is fundamentally sound” and only 12% who think it is “working well”. A semi-regular question on Israel’s military action in Gaza records, for some reason, an eight-point rise in “unsure” since August to 32%: 32% favour Israel’s permanent withdrawal, down seven, 18% a temporary ceasefire, down three, and 19% consider Israel’s actions justified, up two. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1139.
Arky:
Australia, like America, is a country built on immigration from all over the place.
Arky, Australia, like America, was built by immigrants from England, Scotland, Wales and Ireland.
Have a look at old photos of development in Sydney, Brisbane and Melbourne from around 1910.
And keep in mind, until Federation in 1901, there were no border controls.
Anyone could get off a ship and go to work.
Albo doesn’t have the mettle.
“Albo doesn’t have the mettle.”
____
But surely Integrity, you would agree, that the pressing issue of the day is the lack of mettle that Adam Baa-ndt is displaying in failing to manage Dorinda Cox out!
Thinking of the cost of military activity in recent times where both Australia and New Zealand were involved, in both human and dollar terms, Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan, you could hardly argue they were sound investments. Perhaps Pied would be happier if we had spent all that money training doctors and bricklayers.
‘mj says:
Tuesday, October 8, 2024 at 10:30 am
Arky imo there is no upside taking a pro-Israel or pro-Palestine stance, it jeopardises social cohesion and assists wannabe fascists like Dutton to stoke fears.
I’m not suggesting these seats are going to the Coalition, I just see it as a bad move socially and domestically to be taking sides in a heated conflict.’
======================
Agreed.
Bandt was gutless when it came to managing Thorpe.
Bandt is gutless when it comes to managing Cox.
Bandt is gutless when it comes to managing his working relationship with Dutton.
Soc
I take your point on managing vehicle emissions.
‘nadia88 says:
Tuesday, October 8, 2024 at 10:05 am
Essential Primaries are now up. Another poll showing good news for Labor. This is now three in a row suggesting an uptick in the ALP primary. We should have a Newspoll in 5 days time, so I’d say that will also show a primary uptick for the ALP.
Anyway, Essential Report figures…
* ALP 32% (up 3). Big jump for a poll not known for big movements.
* LNP 34% (down 1)
* GRN 12% (steady)
* PHON 8% (steady)
* Clive 1% (down 1)
* Others/Indies 13% (down 1)
Their 2PP 49 to 47 (ALP ahead)
Rough PB 2PP calculation 52.4% ALP (which I have jumping up from roughly 50.3% last time).
Of note also with the report, is the age breakdown section, with the Greens now polling 22% in the 18-34 age bracket, a jump of 5 pts in a fortnight, and within reach of overtaking the LNP.
Having said that, their sample size is usually smallish (around 1030).
It’s a polling outfit not usually known for big jumps either way.
Link: https://essentialreport.com.au/reports/federal-political-insights‘
———————-
+3%?
First poll movement for quite a while that has nudged the MOE borders.
Given that tax cuts happened long enough ago to have been noticed, and talk has turned from more interest rate rises to the timing of cuts it’s not surprising that Labor vote shows some signs of recovery
From the Guardian’s Daniel Hurst:
‘Greens senator Mehreen Faruqi accused Israel of acting with impunity from the US and other “puppets”. She said Labor had “taken no action” and had been “cowardly”.
The hard truth is that both the old parties – Labor and the Liberals pick and choose who they see as victims.”
She said the old parties also picked when international law applied and who deserved justice.
Faruqi said:
People will hold this Labor government to account come the election … for their complicity in Israel’s genocide in Gaza. We will not be erased, we will not be silenced. It is the genocide that is the problem not the people protesting against it.”
===========================
Apparently Hamas, Heshbollah, the Houthis and Iran do not do genocide.
And, in that, lies the fundamental problem for the Greens.
They have been completely captured by one of the two genocidal sides.
Dutton, ditto.
@badthinker:
“Arky:
Australia, like America, is a country built on immigration from all over the place.
Arky, Australia, like America, was built by immigrants from England, Scotland, Wales and Ireland.”
This is an incredibly blinkered view of history.
In the case of Australia, besides the indigenous people, you’re rather forgetting all the Chinese and Southern and Eastern Europeans coming here from the gold rush era onwards.
In the case of America, I rather think a lot of the building was done by the black slaves….
‘subgeometer says:
Tuesday, October 8, 2024 at 11:01 am
Given that tax cuts happened long enough ago to have been noticed, and talk has turned from more interest rate rises to the timing of cuts it’s not surprising that Labor vote shows some signs of recovery’
========================
IMO, too soon to say and also that there are too many variables. The Greens have been trending down for a month or so which may indicate that Greens voters are deserting them for being too extreme. But all that is within the MOE, in any case.
I see that the Guardian is giving just two senators more attention and a platform than all the remaining senators put together.
No faux nid nodding to balance at The Guardian!
I wouldn’t be surprised if McKim’s calls on intervening in the RBA has left a few of their more centrist voters feeling a bit sour about them.
Boer,
The difference is that Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis are all listed as terrorist organisations, which makes them the subject of various sanctions from the Australian government.
So far Australia has barely raised more than Penny Wong’s eyebrow against Israel, a nation and government which has been (rightfully IMO) accused of enacting a genocide against palestinians, using starvation as a weapon of war, and at best being callous in their indifference to civilian casualties
Australia is always crapping on about the international ‘rules based order’, but won’t do anything when our friend / ally (depending on the language being used that week) violates those same rules. It’s hugely hypocritical
The october 7 attacks were an absolute travesty, and you’ll find no sympathy from me towards Hamas, or Hezbollah, the houthis or the Iranian government, but IMO the Israeli response has been SO disproportionate that I view Netanyahu as a war criminal, and under his government Israel is pretty much a Rogue state intent on starting a wider war in the middle east.
our government should be sanctioning all involved, including the israeli government. Continuing to do arms deals with companies like Elbit or the F35 program is unconscionable
Question about who domestical is going to deal with the middle east crisis better is fairly redundant. Neither Albo or Dutton is going to be able to solve a 70 year problem from Australia.
What is possible is someone could stir the pot and inflame racial tensions – it is not like there are not hot heads on both sides – and then when the pot boils over they will pointing fingers. Not naming names here.
Boerwarsays:
Tuesday, October 8, 2024 at 11:04 am
_______________________
Disagree (shockingly). The Greens don’t platform the ME terrorist orgs. Dutto platforms the Israeli state. Apples & oranges.
You never see Australian flags at the Palestinian, Hamas, and Hezbollah protests.
You see them at Israeli vigils.
Arky says:
Tuesday, October 8, 2024 at 11:05 am
You are correct in that there were immigrants from other places. However, in terms of percentages of the population, bad thinker is correct.
Your comment with respect to the US and slavery, they were concentrated in the South East of the US and on plantations. The nation building type activities of building cities, railways, dams etc. were mainly by immigrants, not slaves.
Another reason for a small swing back to the ALP: ANZ-Indeed Australian Job Ads rose 1.6% m/m in September. The rebound was led by Queensland, where Job Ads rose to their highest level since October last year.
Kevin Bonham@kevinbonham: Essential (raw primaries not on same scale as other polls because undecided left in) ALP 32 L-NP 34 Green 12 ON 8 UAP 1 Ind/other 9 undecided 5
“2PP+” by respondent prefs ALP leads 49-47 (=51.0,+1.5)
My last-election estimate 52.6 to ALP (+2.2)
https://x.com/drelidavid/status/1843392303408513309?s=46&t=vv4u7neJSOYfytaeCZ8Erw
Be Bold! – the conga line of critics say to Albanese.
Okay, what about a referendum on advancing the indigenous cause? It is part of our policy and a promise made says Albanese.
What a crock of shit says Dutton. Let’s make sure it does not get up says Dutton. Who cares if it might just be something worth while!
Referendum does not succeed.
Conga line of right wing critics again (and pathetic so-called Labor folk)…..
Albo! Be bold! Show leadership! Find a spine! Pathetic……………ad nauseum
Albanese ….Ho hum……business as usual from a craven Leader of the Opposition, his Green lap dogs and banshees from the right-wing media.
Middle East terrorists deserve all the punishment and sanctions they get. Without being sympathetic, it’s not hard to figure out why they came about.
* Jews and Arabs have lived mostly harmoniously in the Middle East for centuries.
* During WW1, the British “Balfour Declaration” promised Jewish people a homeland in Palestine. Note that the reason the declaration was made was political, an effort to win the support of Jewish communities in both Allied countries like the United States, and enemy countries like Austria and Hungary. It had nothing to do with anti semitism.
* In 1917 the British replaced the Ottoman Empire in Palestine. That ended 1400 years of Islamic rule in that part of the world.
* Jewish migration to Palestine began, and greatly increased with the rise of Nazism.
* Tensions between Palestinians and Zionists led to violence.
* In 1947 the United Nations adopted resolution 181 that created separate Jewish and Palestinian States. Some on the right saw this as an opportunity to export their Jewish citizens.
* Jerusalem was divided, half Jewish, half Palestinian.
* In 1967, Israel militarily absorbed East Jerusalem, the West Bank, and the Golan Heights.
* The two sides recognised one another for the first time in 1993 with the Oslo Accords.
* Israel continued to forcibly establish settlements in East Jerusalem and the West Bank.
* A system like apartheid developed with the building of a massive wall, road blocks, and checkpoints.
* Gaza was blockaded in 2007.
* The establishment of blockades, walls, road blocks, and check points is intended to improve the safety of Israeli Citizens. It could be argued not 100% successfully.
* The population of Israel is now about 10 million with about three quarters being Jewish. There are almost as many Jewish people in the United States.
Right wingers have no concept of human nature. They think that “strong man” rule is the way to go. Most people don’t like being told what to do, and Palestinians in the main will be no different. When you consider the raw deal they have been dealt, the reaction is understandable, and without condoning terrorism, it is understandable that some responses will be more abhorrent that others.
There is no simple solution. However, in my opinion western powers in the main created the problem so they should now step up and resolve it.
Boerwar
“Bandt was gutless when it came to managing Thorpe.
Bandt is gutless when it comes to managing Cox.
Bandt is gutless when it comes to managing his working relationship with Dutton.”
On this we are agreed. I suspect lately that some of the Greens spoiling under Bandt has been to deflect attention from his own internal failures.
No way that many people could have left Cox’s office over two years without anybody in Bandt’s office noticing. If they did then the COS was not doing their job.
Granny Anny says:
Tuesday, October 8, 2024 at 11:39 am
Strangely, you failed to mention that Israel was attacked by all four neighbours plus Iraq on the day it came into existence.
Genuinely feel bad for Albanese, there is literally nothing more he could do for the Jewish councils and yet they boo him. I doubt even Dutton could do more. Reminds me of the attitudes towards Biden too, he is literally their best and most reliable ally in all of American and Israeli history, yet they boo him. Not commenting from any perspective on the war here, just seems a bit disrespectful.
Socrates says:
Tuesday, October 8, 2024 at 11:47 am
There’s no way that the Greens would do anything about Cox’s behaviour – she’s got the Identity Politics Double Indemnity. She can’t be held responsible for her own behaviour and actions – that’s everyone else’s fault.
Bean says:
Tuesday, October 8, 2024 at 11:57 am
Albo has provided support and get out of jail free cards to those who parade Hamas and Hezbollah support – the ones responsible for the unspeakable acts against thousands of Jews and continue to hold hostages and use human shields. So, yeah, booing is the minimum he deserves.
White supremacist Jacob Hersant has become the first person found guilty of breaking a Victorian law that bans performing the Nazi salute in public. Hersant was outside the County Court last year, having just been sentenced for another offence, when he raised his arm and made a salute in front of journalists. He quickly lowered his arm and said: “Oh, nearly did it, it’s illegal now isn’t it?”
As he walked away, Hersant called out: “Australia for the white man, heil Hitler.”
Hersant performed the gesture days after Victorian lawmakers passed the Nazi Salute Prohibition Bill, making it illegal to deliberately perform the action in public. The offence carries a maximum penalty of $23,000 or 12 months’ jail.
On Tuesday, Magistrate Brett Sonnet ruled Hersant was guilty of performing the salute, after the neo-Nazi fought the charge and argued the laws were constitutionally invalid.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-10-08/vic-nazi-salute-jacob-hersant-court/104443118
‘FUBAR says:
Tuesday, October 8, 2024 at 11:59 am
Socrates says:
Tuesday, October 8, 2024 at 11:47 am
There’s no way that the Greens would do anything about Cox’s behaviour – she’s got the Identity Politics Double Indemnity. She can’t be held responsible for her own behaviour and actions – that’s everyone else’s fault.’
==================
By one of those very curious co-incidences, the wording here is exactly like that deployed by badthinker.
Is it always somebody else who does the Greens’ dirty work so that Bandt can claim clean fingers?
The Greens ran Rhiannon out of town.
The Greens ran Buckingham out of town.
https://newmatilda.com/2019/08/06/greens-to-formally-apologise-over-buckingham-sexual-assault-saga-but-secret-internal-report-still-hangs-over-partys-head/
The Greens ran Thorpe out of town.
The Greens ran Gale out of town.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jun/18/victorian-greens-leader-ousts-partys-state-convener-over-past-comments-about-trans-people
Cox had better watch herself.
And who do the Greens talk about?
Rhiannon? No. Thorpe? No. Buckingham? No. Gale? No. Cox? No.
The lovely Greens talk about Payman. All the time. Join the dots.
Fubar, thanks for adding that fact. It goes to show the tremendous fortitude of the Jews, who incidentally are not a race but a religion. The first Jews in modern Israel came from all over the world, including a few from North Africa.
However, that fact doesn’t mean that the Palestinians haven’t been dealt a raw deal.
MJ you love to sink the slipper into Albo. I don’t read what he says about the middle east is “taking sides” like the Greens and Liberals have done, not at all. He took awhile to find an anti’islamaphobia envoy but Recognition of October 7 is NOT taking sides in my mind. I think you are very harsh.
“our government should be sanctioning all involved, including the israeli government”
While our government very rarely sanctions anybody who is not the target of UN sanctions, apart from Russia which wasn’t sanctioned only because they have a veto, and we don’t for example sanction China despite Tibet and the Uyghurs (among many many other human rights violations), or various African countries where child soldiers, child labour and various other major violations occur, there was an argument for this before Iran attacked.
At this point sanctions against Israel would appear to be (and kind of actually be) effectively giving aid and comfort to Iran and denying Israel’s right of self-defence as a nation-state, and also what’s that word, collectively punishing Israelis (including Palestinian Israelis!).
The more likely thing is targeted sanctions aimed personally at Netanyahu and other figures who’ve identifiably ordered war crimes. But again, the Iran attacks have 100% delayed the opportunity to take such a step.
On Tuesday, Magistrate Brett Sonnet ruled Hersant was guilty of performing the salute, after the neo-Nazi fought the charge and argued the laws were constitutionally invalid.
Of course, he did. Only the laws he likes are ‘valid’. 🙄
Arkysays:
Tuesday, October 8, 2024 at 12:22 pm
____________
Conflating sanctions with collective punishment (a war crime) is obviously ludicrous. Australia has a positive obligation to ensure that it is not aiding in the perpetration of war crimes.
Past Failure to act on other humanitarian crises in other totalitarian regimes is not a reason continue to do so.
Looks like it only took a week for the realization that Inflation is beaten and interest rates cuts are coming, to flow through to the Poll results.
It’s the Economy Stupid might be the phrase again next year. I always suspected it was dangerous for LNP to blame Government so much for “cost of living crisis” when it only takes a few months and the data and sentiment can swing around 180 degrees.
UNRWA must be looking forward to getting back into business supply the billions of dollars and logistics to rebuild the Gaza tunnel system – bigger than the London Underground – but, really, they didn’t know anything.
Reserve bank statement today aka interest rates going up….
‘RBA Board minutes released – inflation to keep rising, labour market to keep loosening’.
By Gareth Hutchens Abc today.
The minutes of the Reserve Bank’s 23-24 September board meeting have just been released.
“”Members observed that monetary policy could need to be tightened, even if the Board’s judgements about consumption, the labour market and supply potential prove correct, should present financial conditions turn out to be insufficiently restrictive to return inflation to target.
“Members noted that the easing in financial conditions over prior months and the pick-up in credit growth made this scenario somewhat more plausible, as did the observation that banks were well placed to facilitate any strengthening in credit demand.”
@Bean: “Genuinely feel bad for Albanese, there is literally nothing more he could do for the Jewish councils and yet they boo him. I doubt even Dutton could do more. Reminds me of the attitudes towards Biden too, he is literally their best and most reliable ally in all of American and Israeli history, yet they boo him. Not commenting from any perspective on the war here, just seems a bit disrespectful.”
As we’ve seen here ad nauseum, to Palestinian campaigners, Albo deserves to be jeered and called a genocide supporter and there are supporters of Israel who think the same way of him. In both cases his crime is to not 100% back their side and ignore their side’s faults.
@FUBAR: “Albo has provided support and get out of jail free cards to those who parade Hamas and Hezbollah support”
Has not. Receipts please.
@Granny Anny: However, FUBAR is right on the point that leaving out the Arab reaction to the UN establishing Israel (both in 1948 and over the next two decades) makes your summary look a bit, well, slanted.
FUBAR says:
Your comment with respect to the US and slavery, they were concentrated in the South East of the US and on plantations. The nation building type activities of building cities, railways, dams etc. were mainly by immigrants, not slaves.
_______
Hey. If FUBAR says it, it’s gotta be bullshit.
One historian, Theodore Kornweibel, has recently begun to research in detail the southern railroads’ use of slave labor. Kornweibel found documented evidence for slave labor on over 75 % of southern railroads. He has also estimated that over 10,000 slaves a year were working on the railroads in the South between 1857 and 1865.
https://railroads.unl.edu/blog/?p=32
Civilians dying due to military action is not in and of itself a war crime.
pp
Meh.
Two bob each way.
The RBA has a problem. It does not want to stimulate credit growth by predicting that the next movement in interest rates will be downwards.
I wonder in that lizard brain of Dutton’s did he realise that being cheered openly by Australian Jews and aligning himself so closely to them won’t do him any good electorally in the long run up to the next federal election?
I don’t think Allegra Spender will be kicked out by the people of Wentworth. I don’t think Mark Dreyfus is going to be defeated in Isaacs. I don’t even think Josh Burns is going to be defeated in Macnamara. So that just leaves Peter Dutton as far away as ever from power as he no doubt has pissed off the socially conservative Muslims in predominantly Labor seats he was hoping to win.
So it’s actually the Prime Minister who has been the more politically astute one here. He may have been booed by a few Jewish-Australians at the commemoration yesterday but that group isn’t homogenous and I think the words of Alex Ryvchin yesterday were more akin to the general view. He didn’t say the PM was weak, instead he echoed the PM’s call for social cohesiveness.
So, yet again Dutton appears to have won the battle but lost the war.
dave says:
Tuesday, October 8, 2024 at 12:36 pm
That’s in the “South” where there were slaves. The vast majority of the US and the building of it was not by slaves.
‘FUBAR says:
Tuesday, October 8, 2024 at 12:36 pm
Civilians dying due to military action is not in and of itself a war crime.’
========================
However using human shields can be a war crime.
But these are all subsets of the major crime on both sides: statements of genocidal intention and acts to give effect to those statements.
When both are chanting ‘from the river to the sea’ you get an idea of the depths of depravity of both sides.
doyleysays:
Tuesday, October 8, 2024 at 9:44 am
I might suggest that posters who continue to go on and on about how badly Albanese has handled the domestic “ politics” of the Middle East crisis and how he does not have hic “ fingers on the pulse of the public mood “ may find the current Essential poll enlightening.
_____________________
Hold on. So much for you ignoring all polls apart from Newspoll.
You have changed allegiances.
Is it a permanent change or is it only for this Essential in particular ?
@banquo: “Conflating sanctions with collective punishment (a war crime) is obviously ludicrous. ”
Tell that to the United Nations.
Human rights scholars have for decades criticised broad economic sanctions as a tool that harmed the common people of a country while not dissuading the government figures responsible for the things that triggered the sanctions (who in many cases, although not Israel, aren’t even elected and might be oppressing those same common people themselves), and thus the UN long ago changed tack to a policy of “smart sanctions”. This is why the vast majority of sanctions now are issued against named individuals and organizations, not countries.
FUBAR says:
Tuesday, October 8, 2024 at 12:39 pm
dave says:
Tuesday, October 8, 2024 at 12:36 pm
That’s in the “South” where there were slaves. The vast majority of the US and the building of it was not by slaves.
_______
You said they never built railroads, or cities. But in fact slaves were integral to building the city of Washington:
The lengthy process of constructing the U.S. Capitol relied upon free and enslaved laborers at every step. As a city in its infancy, Washington, D.C. frequently experienced a shortage of free, white craftsmen for hire on construction projects.5 Instead, enslaved laborers from the surrounding slave states of Maryland and Virginia made up a bountiful, cheap workforce that could be “hired out” for work on the President’s House and the Capitol.6
https://www.whitehousehistory.org/enslaved-labor-and-the-construction-of-the-u-s-capitol
Dutton’s angry because Albo didn’t bend his knee to the Israelis enough and recognised that Palestinians exist.