RedBridge Group: 51-49 to Coalition in Victoria

The Coalition pokes its nose in front on two-party preferred, amid conflicting reports on the status of John Pesutto’s leadership.

The Herald Sun reports a RedBridge Group poll of state voting intention in Victoria has the Coalition leading 51-49 on two-party preferred, after the last such poll in late July had it at 50-50. The primary votes are Labor 30% (down one), Coalition 40% (steady), Greens 12% (steady). The poll was conducted from a sample of 1516 from September 26 to October 3, hence slightly before reports of a looming move against Liberal leader John Pesutto – which James Campbell of the Herald Sun reports has “stalled because disgruntled Liberal MPs can’t agree on who should be the potential challenger”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

38 comments on “RedBridge Group: 51-49 to Coalition in Victoria”

  1. The push against Pesutto has never been poll driven, so I doubt it will change anything.

    Actually if anything it might make it more enticing for a challenger to go now and take over in the best political position they’ve been in since Ted Bailieu.

  2. Mind you, that leaves a vote of 18% for others and independents – if I recall correctly, a ton of western suburban seats got a high independent vote in 2022.

  3. Mavis says:
    Thursday, October 10, 2024 at 7:34 am
    You’d think this poll would save Pesutto.
    =====================
    I agree, but here we are. In the middle of leadership speculation.
    As mentioned above the poll period didn’t quite capture this latest round.
    We should have the state resolve poll in about 3 weeks.

  4. What is going on here? The libs are in total disarray. They are actively suing each other! I was in the court a couple of weeks ago. They literally hate each other. Their disunity is so great they can’t even decide who will challenge their embattled leader.

    Jacinta lacks Dan’s cut through, but she is a perfectly competent Premier. The upshot? 2 years out from a poll people have the “it’s time” feeling. I Susie t however that once they focus on what is actually being offered, a lot of people will hold their nose and preference Labor ahead of the Libs. Expect indies and Greens will pick up seats. (Frankly I think the same thing will probably happen federally.)

    Two long years to go. The infrastructure projects will be finished by then.

  5. Dr Doolittle says:
    Thursday, October 10, 2024 at 12:10 am
    nadia88 at 11.43 pm

    Here are the updated (post-redistribution) margins for Victoria:

    https://antonygreen.com.au/2024-federal-redistributions-final-boundaries-for-victoria-released/

    Now, if you are claiming “there is trouble brewing” for federal Labor in Victoria, which seats will go?

    You refer to 1990, but the state situation then for Labor in Victoria was much worse than it is now.
    ========================================================================
    Dr.D,
    I can only go by some of the recent polls out of Vic to justify the “trouble brewing” comment.
    The VIC ALP primary began to sink around April/May this year.
    * May Resolve Poll – ALP 29%
    * Jun YouGov Poll – ALP 24% (with the LNP on 41%)
    * Jun Resolve Poll – ALP 29%
    * Jul Resolve Poll – ALP 30%
    * Aug YouGov – ALP 27%
    * Sep YouGov – ALP 29% (with an 18% primary for the Greens – which is a freak once off figure)
    * Oct Redbridge – ALP 30% (Libs back above 40%)

    In comparison, 12 months ago the ALP were getting 40-42% of the primary vote in Vic.
    My hunch is that the lowering of the threshold for state land tax to kick in has upset Victorians who have a second property. There are a lot of working class Melbournians who have a holiday house on the Bellarine & Mornington Peninsula’s, and they’re now paying more, and they don’t want to be lectured about being “toffs” who are depriving younger people of houses. There may be some issues with cost blowouts on major projects. I don’t have any figures so won’t reference anything there.

    Federal Implications:

    * Both the ALP & LNP got 33% of the primary each at the last Fed Election in Vic.
    * The ALP in Vic today is down by 2-3 pts, in comparison to the last Fed Election
    * The LNP in Vic today is up by about 6-7 pts.
    * Grn’s are steady
    * PHON vote has nearly doubly from 2.8% to around 5% in Vic.
    * The ALP is at the high tide mark in Vic with 24 of 38 seats. They’re not going to pick up any more, but they have a lot to lose if there is a swing to the conservative side of politics. (Vic is the opposite of QLD in that regard).
    So, to answer your Q regarding changing seats in Vic…
    * Wills (Green pick up)
    * Kooyong (LNP pickup)
    * Aston (LNP pick up)
    * Chisolm (LNP pick up)
    * Menzies (now notionally ALP, but should be a Lib retain)
    * Indi (LNP pick up off Haines)
    * Cooper (possible Green pick up as Clifton Hill has been moved in).
    * Deakin – AG has ticked it down to a 0% margin, but given there is a clear primary swing to the Libs in Vic, then they should stonk it in
    * Melb Ports – Tight 3 way. ALP only has to get to the final two, and they’ll retain this seat, probably on a rare increased margin.

    So “No 9 seats” falling to the LNP.
    I only referenced 1990 because that was the last time Victorian’s decided to swing en masse.
    It’s not quite there yet, but there is trouble brewing in Victoria as reflected in the current polling.
    Anyway, that’s my assessment Dr.D. Back to you!

  6. You can fool all of the people some of the time. The scales are falling from the eyes of the Victorians. They have been taken for mugs and the State is mired in infrastructure projects that are years late and billions over budget and the debt to pay for them is spiralling out of control. The ambulance and health system remains in crisis years after the pandemic is a distant memory and can no longer be the excuse. The ALP has no solutions.

    The Libs have plenty of time to sort out their leadership and make a clear run into the election.

  7. Redbridge has the Libs/ Nats ahead 51/49 in regional Victoria. In 2022, the combined 2pp of all those seats was 53.5 to the LNP – there is no way in the world that regional Victoria is somehow swinging to the ALP. The Redbridge headline figure may be credible but the regionals are not. This has come up in poll after poll and they never define how they break the seats up.

    As the Nats hold regional seats on huge margins, I would not be surprised if the LNP need a 2pp of 52 or even 53 to win. It used to be balanced by the huge Labor majorities in the Northern and Western suburbs but these are now way down from their peaks of old.

  8. On a previous page I described the Lib/Nats in Victoria as a “clown show”. They are currently publicly airing their dirty washing in the Federal Court. Word has it that suburban branches are being taken over by “Taliban” Christian cult members. A suggestion was made in the Age that Kim Wells was a contender for leadership. Nice enough bloke but sacked as Treasurer after one budget and rarely troubles the scorers in parliament. Other contenders seem to be attached to the Deeming train of destruction which aims to overthrow Pesutto who has dragged them back to be something like competitive.
    The “Taliban” Christians have the support of the Murdoch press that has, inter alia, dragged up a 2013 car accident involving the then opposition leader Andrews; confected a conspiracy theory about the same Andrews as Premier when he fell and badly injured his spine requiring 6 months off work and any other dirt they can find or manufacture. Building transport infrastructure for the 21st century is a pareticular target for a “debt crisis” confection.
    Guess which press organisation engaged Redbridge to produce this poll ?????

  9. nadia – on what basis do you think the Coalition is going to take Indi off Haines? (8.9% margin)

    Cooper was an 8.7% margin ALP vs Greens (Antony Green made it 8.2% after the redistribution). Wills was an 8.6% margin ALP vs Greens but reduced to 4.6% after the redistribution according to Antony. I think the recent polling has belled the cat regarding the true popularity or lack thereof of the Greens single-minded campaigning on Gaza. Wills is a difficult call nonetheless, but I really don’t think Cooper is under threat.

    I agree with you though that Macnamara is going to be an increased margin.

    The redistribution in Vic was really brutal for Labor. The abolished Higgins was Labor. Chisholm was rendered marginal vs Libs and Wills marginal vs Greens with big slices off the margin There were very tiny gains for Labor in the marginal Liberal seats of Deakin (but only by 0.2%) and Menzies (1.1%) which will only matter if Labor retains its winning position from the 2022 election. The Libs got a little help against Monique Ryan but I still think she’ll retain.

    It’s a good thing we all trust the independence of the AEC and get that these things happen, as in a vacuum it was a pretty unfair-looking redistribution for Labor (NSW redistribution wasn’t great either, with the abolition of an indie seat, Bennelong being made notional Liberal and marginal Paterson and Parramatta having their margins reduced with no real damage to the Libs except that their chances against Allegra Spender were reduced, as if they were going to be able to beat her anyway). In neither of these redistributions were the margins in close Labor seats increased, only decreased.

  10. FUBAR @ #10 Thursday, October 10th, 2024 – 10:34 am

    You can fool all of the people some of the time. The scales are falling from the eyes of the Victorians. They have been taken for mugs and the State is mired in infrastructure projects that are years late and billions over budget and the debt to pay for them is spiralling out of control. The ambulance and health system remains in crisis years after the pandemic is a distant memory and can no longer be the excuse. The ALP has no solutions.

    The Libs have plenty of time to sort out their leadership and make a clear run into the election.

    Well if that’s what you be-leave and makes you happy, so be it.

  11. Hey Arky,

    OK, Per Indi. I think Haines has run out steam. She was a partial architect of the NACC, and I think most posters here regard that as a lemon. She had her sophomore last election, and the use of “Voices for” has run it’s course in Australia. We’ve had a new party registered this week, again using “voices”.
    After the failed referendum it is now a disastrous word to use. ie: voices of this, voices of that, the voice. Gosh where does this end.
    Secondly, Libs and Nats probably won’t run a candidate each and the ALP vote is in single figures. I think she’ll lose next election.

    Per Cooper – Yes the margin has been slightly reduced (re-edit by me) with the Greens picking up Clifton Hill. The current member is low impact and I believe the ALP primary will decline. The Greens have settled their internal problems locally after the Alexandra Bathal era came to an end. The state equivalent seat went Green several cycles ago and in fact they topped the primaries at the last state election, the LNP barely registers a pulse (OK, 16% but this will go down), and a new group called the Vic Socialists nearly outpolled the Libs in the last state election (10% to 8%). As we’ve found out today, the Socialists are recommending a vote to the Greens. Samantha Ratnam is standing for the neighbouring (& similar) seat of Wills. She is a Vic Green rock star who survived the danslide election, and I believe she will bump the Green vote up significantly in both seats.

    Kooyong – the Libs topped the primaries last election, and they’ll get a boost from the Toorak voters added in. A “Hamer” is standing in that seat too which should be enough to round up the Lib strayers.
    Most likely revert back to the Libs for one or two cycles. Eventually it will become a Green seat in the 2030’s.

    Agreed – the AEC distribution was brutal for the ALP. I thought Vic would be appealed but Labor waived it through.

    Looks like the main thread has erupted into another Greens v Labor day. Glad I’ve kept my post tucked away on the Vic thread.

  12. Kage,

    Yes, the state Vic Libs look like a clown show, however their primary seems to be ticking up. I don’t know why it is going up, because division is “usually” death in Oz politics. Something else is driving the state Lib vote up. I’ve made a suggestion in an earlier post today, but will wait to hear from the Victorian posters in due course.

    Redbridge – Yes commissioned by the Herald Sun, but one of the Redbridge Directors is Labor to his bootstraps.

  13. Nadia

    Interesting observations particularly regarding Indi. Interesting to hear from Zoomster on her views if she is still hanging around the Pollbludger parts.
    Cooper – it would seem that Ged Kearney is a good fit for the electorate and can hold on.
    Wills – they will be a bloody fight and suck in huge Greens and Labor resources. Samantha Ratnam a ‘rockstar’ – what? – the Victorian Greens (with the exception of Adam Bandt) seem to have some sort of party issued invisibility cloak. They just can’t get the message out there.
    Kooyong – not sure if the circumstances are there this time for Monique Ryan to win and she is more polarising than the other Teals.

    There has been mention about Goldstein but I find it hard to fathom that Zoe Daniel won’t win.
    Not sure what is happening on the ground but Dunkley and McEwen could be in play if it gets difficult in the outer suburbs.

  14. nadia88 @ #16 Thursday, October 10th, 2024 – 12:39 pm

    Kage,

    Yes, the state Vic Libs look like a clown show, however their primary seems to be ticking up. I don’t know why it is going up, because division is “usually” death in Oz politics. Something else is driving the state Lib vote up. I’ve made a suggestion in an earlier post today, but will wait to hear from the Victorian posters in due course.

    Redbridge – Yes commissioned by the Herald Sun, but one of the Redbridge Directors is Labor to his bootstraps.

    I have found that several of my conservative acquaintances have been banging the drums on their social media pages of late regarding the ‘idiots running Victoria’ and how stupid,useless and leaderless they are,repeated ad nauseam.You know the kind of Green/Co. stuff that goes over here daily as a poor excuse for political discussion brought to you by The Newspaper and TV arms of the evil empire.
    They care not that there is two years of this term still to run,plenty of time for interest rates to go down,completion of major projects and for their own parties to continue to self destruct.

  15. nadia88 at 10.21 am and 12.23 pm

    “So, to answer your Q regarding changing seats in Vic…
    * Wills (Green pick up)
    * Kooyong (LNP pickup)
    * Aston (LNP pick up)
    * Chisolm (LNP pick up)
    * Menzies (now notionally ALP, but should be a Lib retain)
    * Indi (LNP pick up off Haines)
    * Cooper (possible Green pick up as Clifton Hill has been moved in).
    * Deakin – AG has ticked it down to a 0% margin, but given there is a clear primary swing to the Libs in Vic, then they should stonk it in
    * Melb Ports – Tight 3 way. ALP only has to get to the final two, and they’ll retain this seat, probably on a rare increased margin.”

    Your best guess is the Libs pick up 2 Lab marginals and 2 from Indies. Latter is very unlikely. Marginals seem too close to call, either way, including Deakin.

    What group of voters who did not vote for Joshie F. would vote for A. Hamer, knowing that would increase the risk of getting Dutton? Ms Hamer could not hold her own in a debate with Dr Ryan, even without the millstone of Dutton’s nuclear policy.

    Boerwar has said Ms Haines is very unlikely to lose Indi. Libs would need a very strong local candidate. Stuff about “voices” is fluff.

    On your estimate the LNP is nowhere near government, partly due to their inability to recover in Victoria. Voters have various limitations but an inability to distinguish a federal from a state election is usually not one of them. See, for e.g., Labor’s failure to get the 6th Senate seat in SA in 2022 when their primary vote (federal compared to previous state election) dropped a lot.

  16. Nadia at 12.30. I take it you do not know Kos Samaras. If you did you would know he has been beating the same drum for years, even when employed by the ALP. His contention is that Labor is losing traction in formerly safe seats in the Northern and Western suburbs. The numbers seem to confirm that. In some seats up to 10% of the primary was lost reducing 25% margins to 15% margins. If this trend continues Labor could be in trouble. However, most of the working class know that while Labor disappoints by not transforming their lives, they know the Conservatives will change their lives and not in a good way.
    The Victorian Socialists, the Greens, various single issue independents, Animal Justice, Reason Cannabis parties attract votes away from Labor since they can make promises knowing they will never have to deliver. Not saying that they are duplicitous just pointing out that ugly beast Reality.

  17. Nadia88
    What is your issue with Alex Bhathal.
    She was a great candidate.
    And why do you think Kooyong will go green? You said it will go back to the Libs, and a sentence later you say it will go green.
    Agree with you on the voices nonsense. It is overused and a bullshit slogan.

  18. Nadia88 at 12.23 pm re Indi

    When did the Libs last hold Indi? 2010-13. They lost it by 439 votes in 2013 due to Mirabella. They have “Buckley’s or none” of regaining it. No boundary changes. Haines’ margin is 9%. The Nationals’ vote in 2022 was 3.8%, down from 9.5% in 2019. That is not a significant aspect. Note also that the Lib vote in 2022 was only 5.3% above Labor on preferences (from Antony Green).

    Previous voting at: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_results_for_the_Division_of_Indi

  19. Vlad says:
    Thursday, October 10, 2024 at 5:34 pm
    Nadia88
    ================================
    You: What is your issue with Alex Bhathal.

    Me: I have no issue with Alex Bhathal. She was a candidate for six seperate elections.
    The ALP and LNP usually give a candidate 2 elections, and then they move on!

    You: She was a great candidate.
    Me: Was she?

    You: And why do you think Kooyong will go green? You said it will go back to the Libs, and a sentence later you say it will go green.
    Me: The western end is strong Green, in the area surrounding Swinburne Uni. The eastern end is all “Doctor’s wives”. Toorak (in the south) will provide a temp boost to the LNP, but eventually I feel the seat will go Green, probably in 2 elections time. Amelia Hamer should win next election as the LNP still topped the primaries and they now have a boost with Toorak.

    You: Agree with you on the voices nonsense. It is overused and a bullshit slogan.
    Me: No argument from me there.

  20. Kage says:
    Thursday, October 10, 2024 at 4:40 pm
    Nadia at 12.30. I take it you do not know Kos Samaras. If you did you would know he has been beating the same drum for years, even when employed by the ALP. His contention is that Labor is losing traction in formerly safe seats in the Northern and Western suburbs. The numbers seem to confirm that. In some seats up to 10% of the primary was lost reducing 25% margins to 15% margins. If this trend continues Labor could be in trouble. However, most of the working class know that while Labor disappoints by not transforming their lives, they know the Conservatives will change their lives and not in a good way.
    The Victorian Socialists, the Greens, various single issue independents, Animal Justice, Reason Cannabis parties attract votes away from Labor since they can make promises knowing they will never have to deliver. Not saying that they are duplicitous just pointing out that ugly beast Reality.
    ============================================
    Kage – some of your contentions, and my comments. Not having a dig, just my thoughts:
    * No I don’t know Kos Samaras, but I sure as hell watch his twitter feed.
    * I’m aware he “sinks the knife” into the ALP from time to time, but he looks at the polls and provides an opinion. I like looking at opinions from people who focus on polling and not what their heart says they should believe in. The latter group need to be ignored.
    * His contention is correct; that the ALP are losing working class votes in their traditional seats. This is happening worldwide and is something that the centre-left need to deal with.
    * I don’t think Labor needs to worry too much about double digit swings in their safe seats, unless it is repeated at the next election.
    * Working class voters don’t necessarily know that Conservatives will change their lives in a bad way. Around the world, working class voters are moving to the conservatives, via the culture wars. They elected Boris in Britain in 2019 with a “stonking” majority. Working class voters in Pennsylvania elected Trump in 2016. Adrian Beaumont today posted a report about Austria. As the “left” has focused on university graduates and whatever, their working class base has moved to the right (albeit probably feeling abandoned because university graduates have different values to the working classes). It’s messy, but it is reality.
    * Per the minor parties you mentioned in your last paragraph. The “socialists” need to be watched as they performed very well in Melbourne’s northern suburbs in the 2022 election. I believe they may move Australia wide but will wait to hear back from their posters on this site.
    Reason/Cannabis party/Animal Justice – these are all nonsense parties.

  21. Dr Doolittle says:
    …..
    ====================================
    Your comment: What group of voters who did not vote for Joshie F. would vote for A. Hamer, knowing that would increase the risk of getting Dutton?
    Me: She’ll pick up the ex-Oliver Yates voters from 2019, and possibly some of the 6% in 2022 who moved from Josh to Monique. This will get Hamer into the high 40’s, and probably enough to get the seat.

    Your comment: Ms Hamer could not hold her own in a debate with Dr Ryan, even without the millstone of Dutton’s nuclear policy.
    Me: Not aware Hamer has debated Ryan anywhere, but send me the link.
    Per the “millstone of Dutton’s nuclear policy” comment – sorry you’re showing your bias.
    Are you a Teal or Labor supporter?
    The fact of the matter is that since Dutton announced the nuclear policy, the LNP primary has
    ticked up over late June/July/August & Sept. Gosh, I know, as I copped it on this site.
    On a couple of polls the LNP have topped > 40% primary. It may be a “millstone” for you, but
    in voter land, it doesn’t really rate.

    Your comment: Boerwar has said Ms Haines is very unlikely to lose Indi. Libs would need a very strong local candidate. Stuff about “voices” is fluff.
    Me: Has he? And I doubt Boer is concerned about “voices fluff” either. Check with him perhaps pls.

    Your comment: On your estimate the LNP is nowhere near government, partly due to their inability to recover in Victoria. Voters have various limitations but an inability to distinguish a federal from a state election is usually not one of them. See, for e.g., Labor’s failure to get the 6th Senate seat in SA in 2022 when their primary vote (federal compared to previous state election) dropped a lot.

    Me: Sort of correct. The LNP is not near but not “nowhere” near reaching gov’t. Peter Dutton needs to spend more time in Western & Northern Sydney and W.A. A couple of visits to Victoria wouldn’t go astray either. At the moment we are heading to a Labor minority gov’t. The positive for Federal Labor is that they have the choice of dealing with the Greens (they won’t…aka Tasmania), or dealing with a couple of Teals (which they will), for the purposes of confidence & supply.

  22. Blackburnpseph says:
    Thursday, October 10, 2024 at 12:51 pm
    Nadia

    Interesting observations particularly regarding Indi. Interesting to hear from Zoomster on her views if she is still hanging around the Pollbludger parts.
    Cooper – it would seem that Ged Kearney is a good fit for the electorate and can hold on.
    Wills – they will be a bloody fight and suck in huge Greens and Labor resources. Samantha Ratnam a ‘rockstar’ – what? – the Victorian Greens (with the exception of Adam Bandt) seem to have some sort of party issued invisibility cloak. They just can’t get the message out there.
    Kooyong – not sure if the circumstances are there this time for Monique Ryan to win and she is more polarising than the other Teals.

    There has been mention about Goldstein but I find it hard to fathom that Zoe Daniel won’t win.
    Not sure what is happening on the ground but Dunkley and McEwen could be in play if it gets difficult in the outer suburbs.
    =============================
    Hey Blackburnpseph,
    Indi – bit of a gut feeling. I think the Libs will drop out and leave the Nats a clear run. Both parties may run, which probably won’t make much of a difference. Haines has attached herself to the lemon NACC.
    I don’t think she’ll hang on, but we’ll see.
    Wills & Sam Ratnam. She survived the Danslide. She’s a savvy politician. She’ll win.
    Goldstein & Zoe Daniel – yes, I reckon Zoe will get a 2nd term.

  23. Thanks for the replies Nadia.

    I don’t think Haines’ electorate is going to go after her because of the NACC or because the community group that originally supported her used “Voices”. Seems incredibly tenuous. I thought you might have seen some seat polling.

    The state Nationals did a surprisingly good job of uprooting independents at state level last election, and you’d assume they will try the same tactics on Haines but by the same token she should be aware of it.

    Haines already successfully managed the transition from Cathy McGowan and then increased her margin, and there hasn’t been a Coalition member in Indi since 2013. I think she’s got a better grasp on her electorate than most indies.

  24. nadia88 at 8.37 and 8.49 pm

    You haven’t factored in the poor Lib record in Indi since 2013,* when Mirabella lost it even though there was a big national swing to the Libs. The Libs won’t give it to the Nats to come second. See Eden-Monaro. “Porkie” Barilaro implicitly advocated a vote for Labor in the 2020 by-election, so he could have a run himself at the next general election (he didn’t factor in his disgrace). That helped Kristy McBain to win. Her 2022 margin (before redistribution) was nearly as large as Haines’ margin. Libs and Nats aren’t good at cooperating S of Qld. See also Gilmore in 2019 where Nats helped Labor. NACC is not an issue for voters post-Morrison. Its poor performance won’t lead to a swing against Haines, let alone a loss. Boerwar made the comment several months ago that Haines is ensconced in her seat, even if achieving little. Locals would probably rate Haines’ performance higher than he does, so no change in Indi.

    Why is Dutton’s nuclear policy a millstone? Because it breaks the rule set by J.W. Howard in 1996 – don’t announce anything that could be controversial. (1998 re GST is no exception because Howard won then only due to the poor performance of NSW Labor, and because having a big dubious policy from government is different to from opposition). Previously I have referred to a comment by S. Birmingham when the nuclear policy was announced (as a headline, minus the details); Birmingham more or less said it broke the J.W. Howard rule. Of course Birmingham wasn’t consulted about the policy, which the Libs took from the Nats. Some of the Libs in SA, perhaps many like N. Minchin and his lesser followers these days, might be stupid enough to think Dutton’s policy won’t lose votes, but Birmingham isn’t.

    The polling evidence? Wait for the polls in Feb and March. There has been little scrutiny of the Dutton policy so far, but almost all journos would say privately that it’s economically reckless. If Labor has not gone to sleep by autumn they will use that line in attacking Dutton’s policy. So the policy will be a tactical failure because it will allow Labor to criticise Dutton on economics.

    In other words, it is premature to judge that policy on polls so far. That would certainly be Birmingham’s view. The main factor in the polls isn’t Dutton’s nuclear policy. Many marginal voters still wouldn’t know it exists. The main factor is housing pressure as it interacts with inflation. See the chart from Alan Kohler on the ABC news tonight comparing household debt in Australia to elsewhere. Australia has the worst household debt of comparable countries, something Varoufakis pointed out on one of his visits. Hence the importance of the RBA decision re interest rates. Kohler seems to think the RBA will belatedly follow the world.

    Re Kooyong, I haven’t been there for over 10 years. Amelia Hamer will get a huge amount of boosting from the Lib press (9Fax + Murdoch) which many observers will think is significant. She is only in the race because of the corporate media. If she had to debate Dr Ryan directly, she would be revealed as little but a pretty face with a blue-ribbon name. These days the quality of actual political debate in Australia is worse than it was before TV and even radio.

    Many who voted for Yates in Kooyong in 2019 were concerned about global warming, even if they couldn’t vote for Julian Burnside (Greens). Dutton’s policy will keep many such voters supporting Ryan, and Hamer will fall far short of the high 40s. See the trend since 2016 at:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_results_for_the_Division_of_Kooyong

    In two elections Joshie F. crashed his primary vote from 58.2% (2016) to 42.7% (2022). He was top of the ballot both times. Many fewer candidates in 2016. That accounts for a small part of the difference, but not most of it. Enough formerly Lib voters have deserted the party to make the seat hard to regain. That’s why Joshie refused to run again, despite his second thoughts.

    Why are you advising Dutton to go to Northern Sydney? Any Lib leader campaigning even a little in Northern Sydney is on the defensive. And Dutton’s defence against the Teals is poor.

    * Previous voting trends are more helpful indicators than an interstate gut feeling. See again:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_results_for_the_Division_of_Indi

  25. Dr Doolittle
    What group of voters who did not vote for Joshie F. would vote for A. Hamer, knowing that would increase the risk of getting Dutton?
    ————————————-
    If people vote as they did in the last state election and before 22 Ryan wont be returned. Dutton might turn some people off but many voted for Howard Abbott and Morrison but Albo might become a problem for Ryan because people will want to know who she supports in a minority parliament.

  26. Samantha Ratnam survived in Northern Metropolitan because the Greens vote – in their heartland – was just too high to resist the Group Voting Ticket onslaught. Both the Greens and Libs should have won more seats but did not do so because of GVT.
    The Victorian Labor government has a deeply undemocratic streak – keeping GVT, single electorates for local council elections, hiding or having short period consultations on major plans, having major planning consultations due during the caretaker period. ‘Guided Democracy’ is alive and well and living in Victoria.

  27. Mexicanbeemer at 12.08 pm

    “If people vote as they did in the last state election …” there would never be any swings so Antony Green’s computer program would be superfluous in Australia. Trick is to guess change.

    Previous voting patterns are clearly relevant, including trends. The biggest trend in Kooyong is how quickly Joshie F. crashed the Lib vote after 2016 when up against two reputable people.

    “Dutton might turn some people off …” is a contender for understatement of the season. He is much more disciplined than Trump yet basically similar, oblivious to nuance or policy details. Most of the electorate are not equipped to comprehend policy details, but Dutton’s vibe is off. How far off will vary greatly nationally. Much more off in Kooyong and Curtin than in Qld.

  28. Dr Doolittlesays:
    Friday, October 11, 2024 at 4:03 pm
    Mexicanbeemer at 12.08 pm

    “If people vote as they did in the last state election …” there would never be any swings so Antony Green’s computer program would be superfluous in Australia. Trick is to guess change.

    Previous voting patterns are clearly relevant, including trends. The biggest trend in Kooyong is how quickly Joshie F. crashed the Lib vote after 2016 when up against two reputable people.
    —————————-
    All governments lose support and liberal TPP had been trending lower since the 94 byelection but the liberals became directionless changing leaders from Turnbull to Morrison and people tell me Frydneberg wasn’t an active local member.

  29. Thanks Dr.D.

    Appreciate your time on these threads as you have a very thorough knowledge of political trends in our country. Can I ask, are you an former-politician, or staffer.

    Anyway, I’ll stick with my comments regarding Indi, Kooyong & Wills.
    We’ll see when the elction rolls around. I’m sure we’ll both be back to analyse.
    I do keep an eye on your posts.

  30. Regards Alex Bhatal, I never met her personally, but chatting at the past few elections her fellow Greens members seemed to describe her as a bully.

  31. nadia88 on Friday at 7.32 pm

    “Can I ask, are you an former-politician, or staffer [?]”.

    Yes you may ask; no I am neither. From 2004 until 2016 I was a lecturer in International Politics at UWA, where William was researching. It is largely a sorry place nowadays I believe, because of much corporate restructuring gone mad. For many years until 2016 there was an expert on US politics, who knew his stuff well and wrote occasionally about pork-barreling in Australian politics. He did not examine the electorate level details, which are crucial, as shown by the 1998 election result. Once the US politics expert retired he was never replaced. So UWA has a US Studies Centre which is partly a propaganda arm for US “soft power”, but no teaching expertise about US politics. Worse still, there is no teaching expertise on Australian politics. (For a short while the situation was even worse – Peter Van Onselen, a media poser, was employed with little educative benefit.) While my main areas concerned global governance, the UN and European international politics, the last lecture I gave was on Australian politics.

    If you want to understand my approach, see this review article about 3 books on top judges:

    https://sci-hub.se/10.1080/10361146.2011.623763

  32. Liberals in the Hunt for a big-name leader
    Former federal health minister Greg Hunt was asked to re-enter politics to lead the Victorian Liberals amid a crisis over John Pesutto’s leadership.

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/greg-hunt-asked-to-lead-victorian-libs-amid-political-crisis-facing-john-pesutto-over-moira-deeming-case/news-story/ea5511b786ec0824a85460db4b38b287

    You can see the full text in my Bluesky post.

    https://bsky.app/profile/leroylynch.bsky.social/post/3l6c4v4yzkz2z

  33. Thanks Dr. D
    Yes I will go through the link you provided.
    Many thanks, and also for taking the time out to drop a line on this site.

  34. Dr.D
    I’ve gone through that report on the goings on in the High Court at the turn of the century. A terrible period and I suspect the background to it is a foretaste of what may come to pass with the politicisation of our institutions. We see how it is playing out in the S.C.O.T.U.S. I hope we don’t end up with this here, though I feel we are well on the way.
    Also, just reading today your piece on Covid19, the European response & nationalism.
    Your work on Russia & Eurasia is also on my list.
    My greatgrandmother came to Australia from Russia in the late 1940’s so I have an interest.
    спасибо, Надя88!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *