Three new federal poll results:
• The monthly Resolve Strategic poll from Nine Newspapers has Labor up two to 30%, the Coalition up one to 38%, the Greens down one to 12% and One Nation down one to 5%. This pollster does not provide two-party preferred, but if the 15% none-of-the-above vote is treated as a single (it includes an unlikely 12% independent vote), the result is almost exactly 50-50 based on preference flows in 2022. Both leaders are steady on approval and down a point on disapproval, Anthony Albanese to 35% and 52% and Peter Dutton to 41% and 41%, with Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister out from 35-34 to 38-35. The poll also finds a telling 55% professing no opinion as to which party has better handled the situation in the Middle East, with 22% favouring “Peter Dutton and the Liberals” and 18% “Anthony Albanese and Labor”. It was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1606.
• The weekly Roy Morgan poll had a tie on two-party preferred after a 51-49 result to the Coalition last time, from primary votes of Labor 31.5% (up one-and-a-half), Coalition 37.5% (down half), Greens 12.5% (down one) and One Nation 5.5% (up one). Using the two-party measure based on 2022 election flows, Labor leads 52-48, out from 51.5-48.5 The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1697.
• The Guardian’s routine early drop of the fortnightly Essential Research poll doesn’t include voting intention results. Stay tuned for later today on that one.
UPDATE: Essential Research’s voting intention results have Labor up three points to 32%, the Coalition down one to 34%, the Greens steady on 12%, One Nation steady on 8%, and undecided unchanged at 5%. The 2PP+ measure has Labor leading 49-47, with the balance undecided, after trailing 48-47 a fortnight ago. Further questions find fully 40% saying “our political system needs fundamental change”, compared with 48% who think it “needs some reform but is fundamentally sound” and only 12% who think it is “working well”. A semi-regular question on Israel’s military action in Gaza records, for some reason, an eight-point rise in “unsure” since August to 32%: 32% favour Israel’s permanent withdrawal, down seven, 18% a temporary ceasefire, down three, and 19% consider Israel’s actions justified, up two. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1139.
Maybe they’ve used Chat GPT to write the ambitious agenda for them?
Here’s a Medicare Reform – pay GPs the real cost of the rebates – as in actually apply the Australian Medical Cost Inflation Rate since a Medicare was created. There’ll be plenty of GP’s and Bulk Billing then.
‘FUBAR says:
Sunday, October 13, 2024 at 9:03 pm
Childcare reforms – they’ve already made it vastly more expensive than it has to be and a huge cost to the budget. Don’t tell me – more billions.
Regional jobs – like the Live Sheep Export jobs they are destroying? How’s that Ute Tax coming along? They love regional jobs – we can see.’
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Posted out of fear…
You’re back Lars!
Haven’t seen you on the site for a while
This pretty much explains it Nadia:
https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-lede/keir-starmers-bafflingly-bad-start-as-the-uk-prime-minister
The UK doesn’t seem to be in any mood to give political leaders extended honeymoons.
The UK government maybe on a brexit payback to older voters have introduced disgusting pension reforms meaning many pensioners will not have enough money to heat their homes in winter.
Also the two tier Policing protests may have damaged them as well.
nadia88 says:
Sunday, October 13, 2024 at 9:06 pm
UK Labor turn out to have the same flaws that the Conservatives have and that UK Labor made so much of – and now the voters are judging them by the standards that they themselves set.
Free Gear Keir has had the worst first 100 Days in Office in history.
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Sunday, October 13, 2024 at 9:06 pm
That all you got?
It’s like a Year 8 debate, but with kids who don’t want to do debating.
The next UK election is no later than 15th August 2029. Only 1767 days to go.
nadia88 @ #1549 Sunday, October 13th, 2024 – 9:06 pm
That headed south quickly. What’s happenning in the UK?
Basically for the past 14 years the media over there have been lying about how great things were under the Conservatives, but now that there has been a change of government to Labour they’re free to say how shit things really are over there with the changing of their whole economy under Brexit.
So of course they’re attributing the blame to Labour, mainly because Keir Starmer is so easy of a target for it all, and the Conservatives haven’t even decided on a leader yet.
Nadia88:
Looked OK in opposition but incompetent governing
Appear to have no idea on illegal immigration which is increasing
NHS neglected even more
Cuts to government spending including targeting poor pensioners with winter fuel cuts
Raising taxes on the middle class and not rich
Accepting gifts from the rich donors whilst many struggle
Per UK – haven’t seen a political “honeymoon” come to such a sudden end.
3 months since the election and his polling is already heading toward the death zone.
We’ll have the Canada election within the next 12 months. They also use FPTP and the outcome will probably be similar to the UK election – except in the reverse.
These are the latest polling figures out of Canada.
Link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_45th_Canadian_federal_election
These are death zone figures for Mr Trudeau
Kirksdarke
Exactly what is happening.
The Tories in the UK have destroyed the UK in their 14 years of power. The punters are expecting Labour to fix it in 2 years.
WTF?
We clearly do need a Misinformation Law if that sort of bollocks is posted as truth.
In disasters of these dimensions, once you’ve lost the voters, they are rarely won back.
Starmer is stuck with the illegal migrant crossing disaster – about 750 per week.
Labour’s heart is not to deal with it (similar to what we went through under Rudd Mark 1), but the public have other idea’s.
As someone else said, 1760 days to the next election. The public elected this rabble knowing that Labour would be reluctant to take measures to stop the illegal flow, so the public can wear it for the next 1760 days. Will be a very hard lesson learned for the UK voters. There will be by-elections of course (and Labour has had a few defections), but he has such a huge majority, the public over there are stuck with this terrible Labour gov’t until 2029.
Note: 5 year terms are stupid, but once again the public elected a Tory gov’t who restored them, so who is to blame.
Gosh, are we going to get a newspoll?
Edit – looks like it’s up
LNP 51-49 2PP Golly gosh.
new leader
The Coalition now leads Labor on a two-party-preferred basis for the first time since the May 2022 election in a significant political boost for Peter Dutton as Anthony Albanese’s approval ratings fall to a new low. An exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australian shows the Coalition ahead of Labor 51-49, with an eight-month countdown to the next election.
This is the first time the Coalition has led Labor since it lost the 2022 election, cruelling the Prime Minister’s own political benchmark which he set by claiming until now that he had never lost a Newspoll.
The slim lead, however, has come from a slight shift in preference flows from minor parties, with the primary vote support for both the Coalition and Labor remaining unchanged on the previous poll.
Labor’s primary vote remains at 31 per cent, which is below the 32.6 per cent recorded at the last election and the equal lowest result for the party in this term in office.
The Coalition’s primary vote was also unmoved at 38 per cent. While two points higher than its last election result, this remains several points below the point which strategists assess could alter the election balance in its favour.
First to report Aus says libs ahead! Oops second .Bloody hell third.No fourth.
More psychological than anything but 57-43 up now 49-51 shows every time parliament sits labor seems to tank.
Que the West Australian…..
Cant go back to Tories after 100 days. If they hadnt been so shit themselves then probably would have been elected again.
Federal Newspoll
TPP: ALP 49 (-1) L/NP 51 (+1)
Primaries: ALP 31 (0) L/NP 38 (0) GRN 12 (-1) ON 7 (+1) OTH 12 (0)
https://theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/coalition-takes-2pp-lead-over-labor-for-first-time-since-albanese-won-2022-election-newpoll-shows/news-story/dd3ea38cba0f93160b3227750967fb30
The Coalition now leads Labor on a two-party-preferred basis for the first time since the May 2022 election in a significant political boost for Peter Dutton as Anthony Albanese’s approval ratings fall to a new low.
An exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australian shows the Coalition ahead of Labor 51-49, with an eight-month countdown to the next election.
This is the first time the Coalition has led Labor since it lost the 2022 election, cruelling the Prime Minister’s own political benchmark which he set by claiming until now that he had never lost a Newspoll.
The slim lead, however, has come from a slight shift in preference flows from minor parties, with the primary vote support for both the Coalition and Labor remaining unchanged on the previous poll.
Labor’s primary vote remains at 31 per cent, which is below the 32.6 per cent recorded at the last election and the equal lowest result for the party in this term in office.
The Coalition’s primary vote was also unmoved at 38 per cent. While two points higher than its last election result, this remains several points below the point which strategists assess could alter the election balance in its favour.
The two-point shift in the two-party-preferred vote is the result of a one-point fall in the primary vote for the Greens, to 12 per cent, and a one-point gain for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation, taking it to 7 per cent. Support for other minor parties and independents, including the teal independents, was also unchanged at 12 per cent.
This is 2½ points lower than the last election result. The latest Newspoll continues the trend toward a hung parliament at the next election.
Although the Coalition is now in front on a two-party preferred basis, its lead is not enough to win it enough seats to form a minority Coalition government, with a minority Labor government still the more likely outcome.
The Newspoll comes amid a heated parliamentary week, with the past fortnight dominated by Middle East politics, Palestinian protests amid the one-year anniversary of the October 7 anniversary of the Hamas terrorist attack and accusations that Labor had abandoned Australia’s long-held support for Israel.
I’d better front up – I did say several weeks ago that I thought the ALP primary may drop below 30 this poll. It didn’t.
I certainly didn’t expect the ALP 2PP to drop below 50 though.
Anyway – new thread coming up soon! Go WB
Kevin Bonham on twitter.
“#Newspoll ALP 31 L-NP 38 Green 12 ON 7 IND/other 12. Normally this would be very close to 50-50 so the 49-51 has almost certainly come about from rounding issues (eg ALP could be a few tenths below 31 and L-NP a few tenths above 38).”
Let’s see the independently calculated two party preferred !
Albanese has no conviction. He needs to go.
So, outside the MOE, what has changed….other than the theatrics…..?
Say it again and say it often, Labor has had a lead of 52-48 at the start of an election campaign and still loses an election.
However, for the Labor anti-Labor cheer squad, something to gloat about for a day or so.
Note the caution about the LNP still being a long way short of any election victory…..
Albos going nowhere.
PHON vote went up, hence the rise in the 2PP
I see KB is not convinced.
New thread.
Dutton will never be PM.
Never!
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.
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Never I tells ya!!;’6;;!:’&!
Cost of living, what it comes down to, Albanese and Chalmers do a poor job of selling this government’s achievements, and they are wedged on one side by the Coalition and on the left flank by the Greens.
And while Dutton is derided on this blog and in the letters pages of the Nine newspapers, he is not to be underestimated as a dangerous opponent for the PM.
https://x.com/crikey_news/status/1845380827128922444, shit lite gov with aspirations to be full of shit opp?