Three new federal poll results:
• The monthly Resolve Strategic poll from Nine Newspapers has Labor up two to 30%, the Coalition up one to 38%, the Greens down one to 12% and One Nation down one to 5%. This pollster does not provide two-party preferred, but if the 15% none-of-the-above vote is treated as a single (it includes an unlikely 12% independent vote), the result is almost exactly 50-50 based on preference flows in 2022. Both leaders are steady on approval and down a point on disapproval, Anthony Albanese to 35% and 52% and Peter Dutton to 41% and 41%, with Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister out from 35-34 to 38-35. The poll also finds a telling 55% professing no opinion as to which party has better handled the situation in the Middle East, with 22% favouring “Peter Dutton and the Liberals” and 18% “Anthony Albanese and Labor”. It was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1606.
• The weekly Roy Morgan poll had a tie on two-party preferred after a 51-49 result to the Coalition last time, from primary votes of Labor 31.5% (up one-and-a-half), Coalition 37.5% (down half), Greens 12.5% (down one) and One Nation 5.5% (up one). Using the two-party measure based on 2022 election flows, Labor leads 52-48, out from 51.5-48.5 The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1697.
• The Guardian’s routine early drop of the fortnightly Essential Research poll doesn’t include voting intention results. Stay tuned for later today on that one.
UPDATE: Essential Research’s voting intention results have Labor up three points to 32%, the Coalition down one to 34%, the Greens steady on 12%, One Nation steady on 8%, and undecided unchanged at 5%. The 2PP+ measure has Labor leading 49-47, with the balance undecided, after trailing 48-47 a fortnight ago. Further questions find fully 40% saying “our political system needs fundamental change”, compared with 48% who think it “needs some reform but is fundamentally sound” and only 12% who think it is “working well”. A semi-regular question on Israel’s military action in Gaza records, for some reason, an eight-point rise in “unsure” since August to 32%: 32% favour Israel’s permanent withdrawal, down seven, 18% a temporary ceasefire, down three, and 19% consider Israel’s actions justified, up two. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1139.
If you are not bothered by the destruction of Gaza that’s on you. I don’t have the inclination to condemn anyone for it. I haven’t got the time.
My long-standing position of expanding parliament is that now is about the right time to incrementally increase it from 12 to 14 Senators per state, maybe also from 2 to 4 Senators per territory, which would in turn allow the House of Reps to increase from roughly 150 to 175.
The alternative is that we go the same path as the USA and just keep it fixed where it is for another 100 years because expanding it is just too painful (it was Labor who expanded it in both 1949 and 1984 and both times got stung somewhat in those elections).
‘dave says:
Sunday, October 13, 2024 at 5:57 pm
Pathetic that when anyone raises an issue about Gaza some moron invariably brings up Oct 7.
….
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You might need to take that up with Hamas. They were quite taken with Oct 7. Still are. The consequences to date? Not so much.
Get rid of the Senate. Get rid of the states. Massive national productivity gains would be in the bag.
The 41,000 is just bodies counted and verified.
What’s under the rubble is anyones guess.
Any info on how those Australian War Graves in Gaza have fared?
Hamas using it as a command centre?
Well, those bad polls seem to have triggered a response.
I love how Borewar just makes stuff up to support his thinking. So a quarter of Gazan caualties were Hamas fighters by ‘his reckoning.’ Based on what data? What a joke he is.
Clem:
https://www.timesofisrael.com/poll-support-for-hamas-on-the-rise-among-palestinians-now-double-fatahs/amp/
Boer is being conservative in has estimations.
‘Clem Attlee says:
Sunday, October 13, 2024 at 6:29 pm
I love how Borewar just makes stuff up to support his thinking. So a quarter of Gazan caualties were Hamas fighters by ‘his reckoning.’ Based on what data? What a joke he is.’
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Current reporting out of Gaza is that no Hamas soldiers have been killed in the fighting.
They have, of course, been rolled up in the ‘civilian’ casualties.
I leave it to you to now offer your superior and serious statistics.
That is not how law, domestic or international, is written or interpreted.
Not Hamas etc Iran is the only one to deal with as Israel will soon.Iran gone quiet recently after Israel has basically said it has retributions coming.
Israel has US to help stop missiles Iran has nobody.
FUBARsays:
Sunday, October 13, 2024 at 6:38 pm
dave says:
Sunday, October 13, 2024 at 5:50 pm
If you were related to those people you might be more likely to see it as murder.
That is not how law, domestic or international, is written or interpreted.
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no shit sherlock.
Iran is closely allied to Russia at the moment. It’s a bit of a one way street, but Iran could always ask Russia for support.
The upper estimate is Israel’s claim of 17,000 Hamas killed. The lower estimate is 8,500 from ACLED.
https://acleddata.com/2024/10/06/after-a-year-of-war-hamas-is-militarily-weakened-but-far-from-eliminated/
So, it’s somewhere in the middle- so about 12,000. That’s killed. There’s normally a ratio of wounded to dead . A ratio of 2 wounded for every death in combat is a reasonable low end estimate – Google the research if you don’t believe me. So that means Hamas has also suffered about 24,000 casualties. Hamas’ fighting strength as estimated at about 30,0000 per-7 Oct 23. Israel has therefore, either killed or wounded basically the entire estimated strength of Hamas.
FUBARsays:
Israel has therefore, either killed or wounded basically the entire estimated strength of Hamas.
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Just wait a few years for all the children who have lost relatives and homes to grow up. Their ranks will swell with revenge.
Well said.
Get rid of local Governments and have Regional Governments. Brings more professionalism to planning development.
Russia cannot find enough to launch at Ukraine.Struggling to defend itself.
Rex Douglassays:
Sunday, October 13, 2024 at 6:22 pm
$675m pothole blitz to fix Victoria’s crumbling roads.
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1 million a pothole knowing this mob.
If that were a hard and fast rule then no conflict would ever end. How did we defeat the Nazis, Italian Fascists, and the Bushido? Why hasn’t WWII restarted? How did the Sri Lankans win their civil war? Why hasn’t the US civil war restarted?
Hamas and Hezbollah can be defeated. It just takes political will to make it happen.
Once again a thoughtful, well-written article. (I don’t necessarily agree with all of it.)
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/oct/13/israel-is-not-saving-western-civilisation-nor-is-hamas-leading-the-resistance
If that were a hard and fast rule then no conflict would ever end. How did we defeat the Nazis, Italian Fascists, and the Bushido? Why hasn’t WWII restarted? How did the Sri Lankans win their civil war? Why hasn’t the US civil war restarted?
Hamas and Hezbollah can be defeated. It just takes political will to make it happen.
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because eventually Israel will pull out of Gaza and Hamas will be back in control.
I don’t see any other eventuality.
Taylormade @ #1518 Sunday, October 13th, 2024 – 7:06 pm
Well, yeah, fixing potholes long-term requires pretty much re-doing that entire patch of road in major projects. It’s much more complex than simply patching up holes with temporary seals that get washed away in the next dousing of heavy rainfall.
Taylormadesays:
Sunday, October 13, 2024 at 7:06 pm
Rex Douglassays:
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Having a “potshot” are we ?
Of course Israel has the right to defend itself. The issue is, has their response to the attacks a year ago been appropriately proportionate?
Is there any “eventuality” ?
I can’t quite remember if it was a point raised here or not, but I think most people would be appropriately outraged if police responded to a bank robbery that involved hostages by simply demolishing the bank building and killing everyone inside and declared it a job well done and that anyone who said otherwise should be shunned and castigated.
How did we defeat the Nazis, Italian Fascists, and the Bushido?
Well, Italy switched sides with the stroke of a pen. Turned out Il Duce didn’t hold the reins after all.
Japan surrendered on the same terms they’d been offering to surrender on for a while after Soviets declared war and destroyed the Kwantung Army.
Nazis, well they were never defeated, there’s sightings all the time, some Vic cop and 50 masked people at Corowa the latest.
Is Albo really so far ahead of the game he can go on Spics & Specks.
From the Voice to a dead boring has been TV program.
Why not try & concentrate on core issues & problems, political good will destroyed in record time.
‘Kirsdarke says:
Sunday, October 13, 2024 at 7:31 pm
I can’t quite remember if it was a point raised here or not, but I think most people would be appropriately outraged if police responded to a bank robbery that involved hostages by simply demolishing the bank building and killing everyone inside and declared it a job well done and that anyone who said otherwise should be shunned and castigated.’
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False analogy.
Oh, whatever. Just leave them to it then.
My thoughts are with FN’s peoples on the eve of the British Crown tour of their lands.
Taking a breather from the chemo to visit Samoa and Australia. I met an ardent monarchist the other day who is driving a round trip of around 800km to catch a glimpse of the King and Queen. I wished her success.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/oct/13/republican-debate-flares-ahead-of-king-charles-first-visit-to-australia-as-monarch
dave says:
Sunday, October 13, 2024 at 7:12 pm
If that were a hard and fast rule then no conflict would ever end. How did we defeat the Nazis, Italian Fascists, and the Bushido? Why hasn’t WWII restarted? How did the Sri Lankans win their civil war? Why hasn’t the US civil war restarted?
Hamas and Hezbollah can be defeated. It just takes political will to make it happen.
_____________________
because eventually Israel will pull out of Gaza and Hamas will be back in control.
I don’t see any other eventuality.
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Most unlikely Hamas and Hezbollah will be ever defeated while there isn’t a Palestinian state. Others will take on their more militant role.
And Israel, as it had since 1948, when over 700,000 Palestinians were deported from their homes in land that is now the religious, Zionist state of Israel, will keep taking Palestinian land, and in Gaza’s case it is prime Mediterranean real estate for settling Israelis.
Hence the destruction of most buildings, job partly done for new developments, homes for Israelis.
Need to remember how many Israelis view Palestinians.
‘We have seen the religious fundamentalist settlers’ brutal treatment of Palestinians, who Yoav Gallant, Israel’s defence minister, calls “ human animals”.
And what is often not reported is the obscene crimes against Palestinians prisoners at Sde Teiman prison in a state that promotes itself as the only democracy in the region.’
From Louise Adler, in The Guardian, October 13, 2024
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/13/howard-jacobson-gaza-israel-cruelty-louise-adler?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
To change the topic, hopefully a nice fresh Freshwater poll soon.
Their last figures were 30-42-13 with others on 15%.
Hopefully soon.
Via afr
Did Irene show up again and mention China as Australia’s biggest trading partner AGAIN after I just commented on it the other day?
The script is getting a bit repetitive.
Do they pay by the talking point repeated?
I thought it was Newspoll tonight. Bit early isn’t it or am I wrong
daves aays:
Sunday, October 13, 2024 at 5:57 pm
“Pathetic that when anyone raises an issue about Gaza some moron invariably brings up Oct 7.
Personally I don’t even comment on ME issues usually because it is just a proxy for Australian politics.”
Oct 7 was terrible. The subsequent reprisal has killed sooo many more civilians.
Can we, or can we not, express our honest views ?
We should have a new Newspoll in about an hour, but Freshwater was due to drop tonight (usually via the AFR). They usually drop a poll every 4 weeks, and their last was 15-Sep.
Oh well. Have to wait. Apologies for false alarm.
Ya polling our leg Nadia !
Yeah they usually release Newpolls every 3 weeks so we are due one tonight. Curious to see if they will concur with the most recent polls which have seen a small rise in the Labor primary vote and small decline for the Greens. LNP seems to have remained fairly steady.
AFR have put up a negative piece on Albo so maybe a poll result coming,not Uncle Phil though.
It was the NBN scare campaign wot wun it.
Childcare and Medicare reforms will be a part of the “ambitious” policies Anthony Albanese will take to the election, as the Prime Minister kicks into election mode.
Mr Albanese told his caucus last week that the government was preparing for an “ambitious second-term agenda”, with an election due no later than in seven months.
News Corp can reveal the Labor government is eyeing education reforms — especially childcare, Medicare investment and regional jobs — as part of its election policies. The PM, who has just returned from a trip to Laos for the ASEAN and East Asia summits, also put supermarkets on notice, saying more action on competitive prices was on the agenda.
Yes, removing a clause allowing a minister to privatise the NBN is such a scare campaign. How dare Labor brings up legislation to prevent the sale of national infrastructure…
“ Well-known Jewish chef Ed Halmagyi said he decided not to wash the graffitied Hamas symbols off his eastern European bakery window on Sunday morning because “people need to know” that this happens in Australia in 2024.
The large red inverted triangles, painted on Avner’s in Surry Hills sometime between 10pm Saturday and 1.30am Sunday, was accompanied by a written note slipped under the door that warned the former TV chef to “Be Careful”.”
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/tv-chef-ed-halmagyi-defiant-in-the-face-of-antisemitism/news-story/9bc6211d78ab845bea6fa74688fc5934
This is what happens when you let demonstrators do whatever they want. Well done Albo and Minns – winning some votes.
UK Voting Intention – ALL TIED UP!:
Via @Moreincommon , 9-10 Oct. Changes w/ 5-7 Oct.
LAB: 27% (-2)
CON: 27% (-1)
RFM: 21% (+2)
LDM: 13% (+2)
GRN: 7% (=)
SNP: 2% (=)
Childcare reforms – they’ve already made it vastly more expensive than it has to be and a huge cost to the budget. Don’t tell me – more billions.
Regional jobs – like the Live Sheep Export jobs they are destroying? How’s that Ute Tax coming along? They love regional jobs – we can see.
Mr Albanese told his caucus last week that the government was preparing for an “ambitious second-term agenda”
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Caucus is probably getting impatient with this govt as well. Hope there actually turns out to be an ambitious agenda – better late than never.
Holdenhillbillysays:
Sunday, October 13, 2024 at 9:03 pm
UK Voting Intention – ALL TIED UP!:
Via @Moreincommon , 9-10 Oct. Changes w/ 5-7 Oct.
LAB: 27% (-2)
CON: 27% (-1)
RFM: 21% (+2)
LDM: 13% (+2)
GRN: 7% (=)
SNP: 2% (=)
===================================
That headed south quickly. What’s happenning in the UK?
“This is what happens when you let demonstrators do whatever they want. Well done Albo and Minns – winning some votes.”
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Yes. Yes. Police should have just open fire on the demonstrators, hey Colonel Kurtz!