ACT and NSW state by-election guides

Beginners’ guides to next fortnight’s election in the Australian Capital Territory, where the Liberals hope to end a decades-long drought, and three by-elections for blue-ribbon state seats in New South Wales.

With thirteen days to go in both cases, this site now offers a guide to the Australian Capital Territory election, and individual guides to the by-elections for the Liberal-held state seats of Epping, Hornsby and Pittwater in northern Sydney. The former finds Labor, which governs in coalition with the Greens, seeking a seventh successive victory and an extension on its 23 years in office, in circumstances that are seemingly more promising for the Liberals than those that prevailed when it suffered a dismal result in 2020. Labor has forfeited each of the New South Wales by-elections, but that in Pittwater is of considerable interest in offering a second chance for teal independent Jacqui Scruby, who came within 0.7% of winning the seat at the state election in March 2023.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

44 comments on “ACT and NSW state by-election guides”

  1. I thought Labor might have contested the Epping byelection at least, as their candidate took a fair amount out of Perrottet’s margin in the 2023 state election. Obviously NSW Labor head office wants to save their money and resources for the federal election next year.

  2. William, thank you for the very informative guides.

    I would have thought the Teals would have had a crack in the NSW by elections.

  3. pied piper says:
    Monday, October 7, 2024 at 12:11 pm
    Any chance we get a poll ?.
    Nt Election no poll now looks like ACT no poll.

    There have been relatively few published ACT polls over the years and nothing since the 2020 election so far as I know. Perhaps one poll will emerge before election day on the 19th although pre-poll starts tomorrow.

    Perhaps polling outfits don’t see much point since the ACT Liberals have been in continuous opposition for the past 23 years. In fact they themselves have many roadside corflutes proclaiming “23 Years is Long Enough”. They’re hoping for an “It’s Time” response I suppose but with the existing Assembly at Labor 10, Liberal 9 and Greens 6 it’s a big ask.

  4. citizen
    My running informal poll tells me that there is an ‘Its Time’ feeling among Labor supporters. Whether the alternatives are attractive enough for Labor voters to switch remains to be seen.

    I believe that Rattenbury’s desire to be the next Chief Minister is falling on deaf ears.

    Lee is generally well-regarded.

    The Greens in several electorates are on thin margins so can’t afford much erosion of support.

    Labor generally has thicker margins.

    Of the Indies, Emerson looks to be the likeliest but he would, IMO require the support from the sort of tactical voters who got Pocock over the line. I don’t get that sort of vibe either.

    The sheer number of Indies has, IMO, resulted in too much ‘choice’ and not enough certainty.

  5. Boerwarsays:
    Monday, October 7, 2024 at 8:43 pm
    citizen
    [My running informal poll tells me that there is an ‘Its Time’ feeling among Labor supporters.]

    The only interest for the majority of voters is the sheer number of corflutes on the roadsides, the frequency with which they are not randomly torn down, how quickly they are replaced and where these corflutes “go to die”.
    Rattenbury is ensconced in relatively secured sinecure for a Green’s leader and won’t rock the boat.
    Barr will step aside during the next term while the bitter infighting Liberals will maintain their “maybe next time” flavour despite the 23years.
    The independents and Greens results are a little more interesting under the Hare Clark system.
    Boerwar spends too much time on PB to know what’s happening on the ground.
    Status quo is the most likely.

  6. “Corio says:
    Tuesday, October 8, 2024 at 10:37 am
    I’m pretty sure Bill Stefaniak was never ACT chief minister.”

    Never Chief Minister but I think he was Attorney-General in the Carnell government around 2000.

  7. I would be pretty surprised if the Libs improved their position much.

    I don’t disagree there’s an ‘It’s Time’ mood, even among us who are supportive of Labor. The problem is there really isn’t much of an alternative.

    Yes, Elizabeth Lee is pretty well liked, the rest of her team are a bunch of OutRight weirdos. The “independents” not the others which are vote funnels for the Libs are just not consistent in their positions – which does matter in Canberra. Plus, whatever people think of Barr, the idea of the self-appointed leader of a movement of Independents saying they’d support Labor, but not with Barr as leader, was pure amateur hour.

    The Greens seemingly have peaked, so I wouldn’t be shocked if they drop a seat or two.

    My expectation is Labor will form the next government, but mostly due to a lack of better options. The Libs need to seriously sit down and figure out who the hell they are and what they stand for. They’ve certainly pivoted toward the middle in their rhetoric, but many of their candidates and electeds are fringe-dwellers. Fix that, they might have a chance in 2028 – also, I expect Barr will stand down in 2026, so there will be a new Labor leader/CM… whoever that might be.

  8. ‘goll says:
    Tuesday, October 8, 2024 at 5:33 am

    Boerwarsays:
    Monday, October 7, 2024 at 8:43 pm
    citizen
    [My running informal poll tells me that there is an ‘Its Time’ feeling among Labor supporters.]

    The only interest for the majority of voters is the sheer number of corflutes on the roadsides, the frequency with which they are not randomly torn down, how quickly they are replaced and where these corflutes “go to die”.
    Rattenbury is ensconced in relatively secured sinecure for a Green’s leader and won’t rock the boat.
    Barr will step aside during the next term while the bitter infighting Liberals will maintain their “maybe next time” flavour despite the 23years.
    The independents and Greens results are a little more interesting under the Hare Clark system.
    Boerwar spends too much time on PB to know what’s happening on the ground.
    Status quo is the most likely.’
    ==================
    My only claim is to have polled around 60 people, most of who are aged Rusties.

    I expected ‘Meh’ but got a reasonably consistent response that we needed a change of government but that none of the alternatives are all that appealing.

  9. Tara Cheyne who is seeking re-election has a HTV card which recommends supporters to put her at no 1 and then vote the remaining Labor candidates 2-5 as per personal preference.

    This is one of the wrinkles of the Hare Clark system.

  10. Came across a corflute graveyard this morning. A pox on all their houses, apparently. The only one left standing featured a Hitler tache.

    Came across a piece of corflute ambush advertising. Nestled amongs a bevy of corflutes was a corflute for the North Canberra Bears who are recruiting players.

  11. Watched the ACT leaders debate last night and my one takeaway was how aggressive and negative Elizabeth Lee came across, particularly the constant sniping and interjections when Andrew Barr was speaking. It’s the sort of approach to shore up partisan Liberals rather than win over undecideds and otherwise progressive voters willing to consider a change.

    Barr in contrast was calm and measured and sought to remind voters of his record of leadership especially during COVID and the health, transport and recreational infrastructure pipeline for Canberra.

  12. ‘jt1983 says:
    Wednesday, October 9, 2024 at 10:47 am

    God I hate Hare Clark’
    =================
    I don’t actually hate it but I don’t like it much.

  13. Just got letterboxed by Barr.

    Pamphlet:

    Photo of (a) Barr holding a toddler (who seems to be protecting his face from Barr); background greenery and (b) a smiling Barr undoing the button on his shirtsleeve, presumably to be followed by Barr rolling up his sleeves and getting back to work as soon as the election is over; background a building frame.

    Main message: Canberra is ranked the second city in the world for quality of life (thanks be to 23 years of Labor) and there is more to do on healthcare, housing, education and sports and the yarts.

    There is a QR code to scan and discover the Labor Plan.

  14. Hughes has been rooting for the Indies since the start of the campaign so take this one with a grain of salt.
    He has, IMO, seriously misrepresented the campaigns of the existing parties.
    His view is that the sheer number of Indie candidates is evidence for a desire for change. It may be nothing of the sort.
    His view is that the Indies are energetic compared to the tired existing players.
    He forgives the Indies their general lack of policy detail this time.
    Apart from that he has provided zero statistical evidence for his views.

    FWIW:

    https://citynews.com.au/2024/why-the-indies-will-hold-the-balance-of-power/?utm_source=mailpoet&utm_medium=email&utm_source_platform=mailpoet&utm_campaign=canberra-daily-today-s-news-today_7801

  15. ‘Southsider says:
    Wednesday, October 9, 2024 at 10:48 am

    Watched the ACT leaders debate last night and my one takeaway was how aggressive and negative Elizabeth Lee came across, particularly the constant sniping and interjections when Andrew Barr was speaking. It’s the sort of approach to shore up partisan Liberals rather than win over undecideds and otherwise progressive voters willing to consider a change.

    Barr in contrast was calm and measured and sought to remind voters of his record of leadership especially during COVID and the health, transport and recreational infrastructure pipeline for Canberra.’
    ——————
    What is your take on the vibe?

  16. It’s also really important to remember how difficult it is, under Hare Clark, for Indies to crack unless they’ve got an existing high profile.

  17. ‘jt1983 says:
    Wednesday, October 9, 2024 at 5:46 pm

    It’s also really important to remember how difficult it is, under Hare Clark, for Indies to crack unless they’ve got an existing high profile.’
    ————————-
    Yep. Somewhat true of Emerson and Carrick but only barely so.

  18. (Copied and Pasted from the Open thread/)

    ‘Holdenhillbilly says:
    Thursday, October 10, 2024 at 9:04 am

    Under a pseudonym, ACT Greens candidate Harini Rangarajan wrote a post on her personal blog comparing September 11 attack mastermind and al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden to Jesus Christ.
    An ACT Greens spokeswoman said the candidate’s post was a “creative writing exercise” and that Ms Rangarajan and her party abhor terrorism.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-10-10/greens-defend-act-vetting-after-bin-laden-blog-post/104450866
    =================
    ‘creative writing exercize’. Do they expect to be taken seriously.

  19. @boerwar, comparing their respective influence would be an interesting intellectual exercise. One was a terrorist. One is an allegory. I suspect JC will “live” on, while bin laden will be a forgotten footnote in history.

    We need to see the alleged essay before any real conclusion can be reached.

  20. @Boerwar It’s hard to summarise the overall vibe because I think divergent generational patterns will play out.

    The boomers and oldies are likely to return to type after the COVID interregnum. They dislike Barr’s economic development agenda, and get the most media airtime. I think this group will form the back bone of any swing to the Liberals or various independents.

    Barr remains relatively popular with Millennials and younger, and I think they will largely stick with Labor and the Greens.

    Labor can afford to lose some paint – a 4–5% primary drop (ie 1 in 8 of their voters from 2020) across the ACT would still net them 10 seats. At least some of this will go to the Greens. That’s why I think the most likely outcome is a continued Labor-Greens government, with perhaps 1-2 independents – Thomas Emerson taking the final seat in Kurrajong. Fiona Carrick is rated in Murrumbidgee but I think proliferation of independent options weakens her chances. If she does pull it off, I wouldn’t be surprised if it is at the Liberals’ expense rather than the Greens.

  21. @boerwar again, I’ve since read the post. Her writing is bizarre. It is not a comparison of their impact.

    Creative writing it may be, good writing it is not!

  22. ‘Southsider says:
    Wednesday, October 9, 2024 at 10:48 am

    Watched the ACT leaders debate last night and my one takeaway was how aggressive and negative Elizabeth Lee came across, particularly the constant sniping and interjections when Andrew Barr was speaking. It’s the sort of approach to shore up partisan Liberals rather than win over undecideds and otherwise progressive voters willing to consider a change.

    Barr in contrast was calm and measured and sought to remind voters of his record of leadership especially during COVID and the health, transport and recreational infrastructure pipeline for Canberra.’
    ——————–
    Based on comments I have been hearing, this one may be hurting Lee among some potential voters who might otherwise have switched to the Liberals in this election.

  23. ‘Mabwm says:
    Thursday, October 10, 2024 at 11:01 am

    @boerwar again, I’ve since read the post. Her writing is bizarre. It is not a comparison of their impact.

    Creative writing it may be, good writing it is not!’
    ———————
    oh. thanks.

  24. Goodness me.
    The Kurrajong electorate has the leaders of all three parties…
    Assuming Lee, Rattenbury and Barr all get up the competition for the remaining two seats is going to get complicated.

  25. ‘ Low Sensory Voting Location

    Elections ACT are offering a specialised early voting centre for neurodivergent voters who may need a quieter, calmer environment. Features include fewer booths, natural lighting, and private voting spaces to ensure you have your say in your way. ‘

  26. In the absence of any polling, two political scientists give their opinions on the ACT election.

    University of Canberra political scientist Dr Michael De Percy says any election predictions are just “guesses” without polling, but feels the Canberra Liberals could have their “best chance in 23 years” of being able to form a government, perhaps with the support of independents.

    “The change of leadership for the Canberra Liberals to a moderate Elizabeth Lee makes it more possible, if not probable, to have a good showing in this election,” he said…

    Veteran Australian National University political commentator Professor John Warhurst agrees the Liberals have a better chance than they’ve had in the past but wouldn’t bet on a change.

    “It’s all speculation [without polls], I don’t rule out a Liberal victory, but the most likely outcome is the government will be returned. They might lose some skin though,” he said…

    Both Professor Warhurst and Dr De Percy agree that the Greens may be the most vulnerable party in this election, given that they surged in 2020 and now face even more competition from a host of left-leaning independents…

    The University of Canberra lecturer doesn’t see a 2022 federal election-style ‘Teal wave’ happening at this Saturday’s poll either.

    “There’s been a lot of speculation about independents, but I’m not convinced. It’s possible that someone well-known like Fiona Carrick [in Murrumbidgee] might get up… but I just don’t think they are going to have the cut through … if you look at the corflutes, I’m hardly seeing any independents. Their presence is shallow,” Dr De Percy said.

    Professor Warhurst says the independents are facing a “hard slog”…

    But at the end of the day, both experts wanted it on the record that it’s all just speculation in the absence of good data.

    https://the-riotact.com/the-electorate-is-in-a-grumbly-mood-experts-have-their-say-on-the-act-election-outcome/817211

  27. A little bit of excitement to spice up the ACT election campaign three days out from polling day.

    Lee says sorry for giving journalist the middle finger

    By Jasper Lindell
    Updated October 16 2024 – 6:08pm, first published 5:43pm

    Opposition Leader Elizabeth Lee has apologised for giving a journalist the middle finger after a testy press conference on Wednesday.

  28. Even Lee giving the journo an angry bird has failed to get any press coverage. I wouldn’t be surprised if everyone in Canberra forgot to vote on Saturday.

    Is there an election even happening?

  29. Total guesswork I reckon if greens lose 4 back to 2, 2 independents, one each of those to Labor 11 and liberals 10. Engaged voters voting green last time probably less likely to vote lib gonna switch indi or back to Labor. Disengaged or new voters might be swayed by stadiums and housing promises. We will find out on the weekend.

  30. I think* Labor will remain in government in partnership with fewer Greens (currently L10 & G6), Liberals will not increase their numbers (currently 9) and ‘independents’ may possibly get one or two seats off the Greens. Labor could take a seat off the Greens in my electorate Brindabella where they narrowly beat a third Labor candidate in 2020. The Liberals have a problem in Ginninderra where they only have four candidates due to one being booted too late to nominate a replacement; also two of the remaining candidates have previously expressed RW racist views.

    *Given my woeful record in footy tipping competitions in the past, my election tips would not be highly rated.

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