Evidence is starting to emerge of a strengthening in Kamala Harris’s position in the wake of last week’s debate, and while this hardly amounts to a paradigm shift in terms of the popular vote – after rounding to whole numbers, The Economist’s poll aggregate records no change from Harris’s 50-46 lead when the debate was held on September 10 – it’s been enough to move forecast models substantially in her favour. Nate Silver’s model is the most striking case in point, with Trump’s win probability falling from 59.7% to 52.0% just over the past few days, having peaked at 64.4% the day before the debate. After bouncing around 52-48 for a couple of weeks, The Economist’s probability reading now has Harris leading 57-43. FiveThirtyEight’s model remains the most bullish for the Democrats, putting Harris’s win probability at 63%. More from Adrian Beaumont at The Conversation.
A lot of DJT media stock was unable to be sold until this week. Trump owns 59% himself but there are others who owned significant blocks which couldn’t be sold either. Trump says he is not sell (and who wouldn’t believe him?) but there could be selling from the others at the moment.
The stock becomes virtually worthless* if Trump doesn’t win. So that probably explains a lot of the drop.
* It will have a small value but nothing like it is valued at the moment.
Team Katich @ #450 Tuesday, September 24th, 2024 – 11:00 am
There’s a large number of Haitians in Florida. Trump is not targeting them I imagine. Their numbers can affect the vote too.
The Hispanics in Florida are different to the Hispanics elsewhere. There are a lot more with Cuban heritage who either fled or had their parents flee Castro’s Cuba – so it is lot easier to create a fear of “communistic” democrats. Same with the Venezuelans and Columbians who are more heavily in Florida than elsewhere in America.
There are about 400k Haitians in Florida but they are not Hispanic – they’re black and speak a French creole.
Also Florida has the second largest population of Puerto Ricans in America outside of New York. With the continuing economic woes in Puerto Rica, the flow into Florida has increased, mostly centred on the Orlando region. They are different to Hispanics from elsewhere as they can vote from day one as US Citizens.
I note that the Harris campaign is using the poor polling to motivate supporters against complacency.
“Aw, hello RD – haven’t heard from you for a bit. Sorry to pop in too often for your liking. But as you like thinking about me so much, you can count my number of posts (average per day since and before) to compare and LMK the difference. ”
Just pointing out that complaining about people posting opinions on a politics blog while posting your own opinions masquerading as fact all seems a little twee.
Trump is alsospending more time at Maralago because he believes he is safer than being out and about.
I’m not so sure.
The call is coming from inside the house……
As I said back in 2020, “Hispanic” or “Latino” is too broad a demographic to narrowly categorise. In fact, they are Mexican-Americans, Venezuelan-Americans, Cuban-Americans etc., not to mention Puerto Ricans, who aren’t even a foreign-immigrant culture. They all have their different cultural values and desires as voters. But that’s only half the story. Take Mexican-Americans for instance. Despite the label being equally valid for both, there’s a huge difference between the values of someone who came over from Mexico not too long ago, only recently got citizenship and still has family coming over (some of whom, are doing it illegally), and a fourth generation Texan who is ethnically Mexican.
And that’s not mentioning economic class (but that’s its own category and all demographic groups can be subdivided by that.)
“Democrats need to stop playing identity politics”
Humans are emotional, social creatures. Politics should reflect that. Conservatives are obsessed with identity – it has fundamentally driven their politics for the last 60 years in the USA. Life for a black person is different than life for a white person, just as life for a rich person is different from life as a poor person. Democrats are branded as racist because they chose the side of black freedom in the 1960s.
Rah rah identity politics rah rah.
Identity politics has been very successful in moving power from dominant groups of society to less dominant groups. You can bet your life those decrying identity politics are people whose identity and right to maintain their power are the ones being challenged.
It’s just a tiring cliche at this point. Breaking down demographics into groups and playing on their collective identity is natural politics. It’s the same instinct as a local politician making sure to be seen wearing the local football team’s colours. Of course that’s only a small part of it and speaking to such group’s financial and security interests are much more important but it’s still valid.
The term never seems to be applied to the various appeals to white grievance which is more frequently appearing in politics.
Re the Trumpf being a threat to Democracy.
There are enough Trump positive folk holding the levers of power to grandly cock-up the counting of votes and declaration of winners.
This could cause enough Electoral College votes to disappear and stop Kamala reaching the 270 votes required. Then we have a contested election decided by a one-state one-vote session of Congress. Et Voila, election stolen!
And once given the levers of power, the Trump / Republican party will model its heroes Urban and Putin and the USA will have show elections with a pre-determined result for ever more.
I have mentioned this before, but haven’t had a bite.
Project 2025 explicitly states the bible bashing reactionary right’s desire to ban pornography.
Why aren’t the Democrats (or a suitably removed proxy) shouting this from the rooftops?
Imagine all those angry white men, Teamsters, Incels, etc. that would change their Trump loving ways so quick!
Coming out as loudly pro-pornography would (slightly*) undermine their efforts to go after Robinson over his porn-related comments in NC. And NC is worth more to them electoral-college wise than whatever slight boost they might get nationwide.
* Really though there’s enough to go after in the comments that the porn angle becomes basically tangential/irrelevant.
a r @ 2:17 pm
The way US politics is awash with dark money, all it takes is a Super Pac masquerading as a Porn supportive entity paying for adds on PornHub or Twitter or Playboy or where ever one goes for Porn these days. NO need to connect with the Democrats.
I disagree that the porn angle is not worth it – I think there is a substantial amount of men who could be inspired to change votes or just not bother to vote to make a difference. They just need to be made aware.
And it would be fun for a Journalist to ask Robinson what his stance is on the Project 2025 anti-porn agenda 🙂
Wat Tyler, In my view, white grievance and identity politics are one and the same.
Both involve a focus on perceived threats to one’s social, economic, or cultural status. Identity politics often centers on the interests and experiences of marginalized groups, white grievance can be seen as a reaction to changes that challenge the traditional dominance or privileges of white individuals, framing these changes as a loss or injustice. Both involve a sense of group identity and the defense of that identity’s interests.
Posted with approval by Arky on the other thread. Useful discussion on outliers, IMO. Mentions the latest NYT Siena sunbelt results:
https://www.natesilver.net/p/trust-a-pollster-more-when-it-publishes
IMO there are lots of variables. The one that has slipped off the radar is the loss of blue collar jobs following the GFC. Men who lost their jobs then never got another job. The second is the erosion of middle class jobs consequent to globalization.
Whatever other explanations are urged those two need to be kept on the table.
From the latest polling, it looks more and more like the battle is Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin. That’s the Kamala Line. Hold those states and she wins. Anything beyond is just a bonus, like the extra states Biden ended up winning in 2020. But those states look like she’s in the lead, while other possible paths to victory are less viable without significant changes in the last month of the race (which can happen, of course).
“Why aren’t the Democrats (or a suitably removed proxy) shouting this from the rooftops?”
For one, it would feel like a step with legitimate backfire potential, and for another, men voting for Trump probably don’t believe for a second he’d do it, and they could even be right.
@C@T: “There’s a large number of Haitians in Florida. Trump is not targeting them I imagine. Their numbers can affect the vote too.”
My Miami Heat put out a very strong statement defending the Haitian community against Trump and Vance because of that, to their credit. A number of Haitian-American employees there. The Arison family who own the team are Democrats, which no doubt helps.
However, while Harris has edged closer in the Florida state polling over time (some of which might be related to the Haitians), the margin still looks too big to close.
This is a good article about the demographic shifts in Florida since Obama carried it which have turned it red
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3998391-how-florida-became-a-conservative-bastion/
Sometimes people joke about how the best things liberals could do to win elections in America would be to move from New York or Los Angeles to Alaska or North Carolina etc but basically that’s kind of what happened in an unorganised way for the conservatives with Florida- Republicans moved from safe blue states to Florida, a shift that didn’t start with COVID but accelerated when DeSantis made it a haven for everyone who didn’t like masks or lockdowns (and one would suspect it also led to Democrats leaving the state rather than send their kids to book-burning schools, further driving the demographic change).
Arky at 3:43 pm
“For one, it would feel like a step with legitimate backfire potential, and for another, men voting for Trump probably don’t believe for a second he’d do it, and they could even be right.”
I am sure people thought the same thing about Prohibition! Would Trump veto the legislation if it arrived on his desk? Not sure about that.
Max and David and Adam and Sarah and Maureen should phone Jill to congratulate her for trying to greens ant that awful centrist sell-out Harris.
Jesus Christ can you please contain your daily sundowning to the main thread please?
This is the POTUS thread. Jill is the POTUS Greens candidate.
The Greens can run but they can’t hide.
Right now it is a serious and legitimate to question why the Greens are trying to help Trump win POTUS.
Trump’s latest rally. They seem to be getting more and more unhinged. Not to mention amping up the racism.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jqWPsnCkM2I&ab_channel=TheBulwark
The big difference between post November 5 2020 and 2024 is Biden is President, not Trump.
With his newly anointed immunity for offical acts, Biden will have every right to send the FBI into Georgia and anywhere else partisan electoral officials are delaying certification. You won’t be able to delay all that well from a remand cell.
And the January 6 ceremonial counting of the votes has already been declared a national security event – doubtful that any protesters will get within miles of the Capitol.
https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/archive/2024/09/mark-robinson-scandal-maga-defense/680002/?utm_campaign=atlantic-daily-newsletter&utm_content=20240923&utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&lctg=66919c750b69bab0cd0c8def&utm_term=The%20Atlantic%20Daily
This man is the Lt Governor of Nth Carolina. Why is nobody demanding that he stand down on the basis that his conduct is inappropriate for Lt Governor, much less a candidate for governor? And yes, this question could reasonably have been asked even before the latest allegations surfaced with the inflammatory shit he has said previously, but it is even more relevant now.
My god, I hadn’t thought of that!
@BT says – this is 1930’s Germany, mate, and those too stupid to see it are the problem. It’s about 1937.
I quoted Trump himself at you, but oh no, he didn’t mean it. Poor frog. Is the water getting warmer?
“But I can tell you this: There’s been over $1 million spent on me through AI by a billionaire’s son who’s bound and determined to destroy me.
Okay, put a name to the accusation then. If you’re telling the truth you won’t fear a Defamation action.
So, Mark Robinson’s closest staff resigned yesterday for no good reason then? 😐
Ergo, if what he is saying now is true then they would have stayed and stoutly defended their man.
Last night’s Kimmel:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2XoqttCWIMY
Royal D
“Just pointing out that complaining about people posting opinions on a politics blog while posting your own opinions masquerading as fact all seems a little twee.”
I’m no more perfect than the next guy, but I don’t (generally) do that. I offer opinions, sure, but as. . . opinions.
SolarPunk
“And once given the levers of power, the Trump / Republican party will model its heroes Urban and Putin and the USA will have show elections with a pre-determined result for ever more.”
Then you woke up.
“I’m no more perfect than the next guy, but I don’t (generally) do that. I offer opinions, sure, but as. . . opinions.”
I’m no more perfect than the next guy, but … I am more perfect than the next guy. In your opinion.
We’re all offering opinions. As opinions. My opinion is that not only is Trump a threat to democracy but he bears more responsibility than any single individual for the increased level of political violence in the USA.
Boerwar, Wat Tyler is right. Save this crap for the open threads.
Royal D
“We’re all offering opinions. As opinions. My opinion is that not only is Trump a threat to democracy but he bears more responsibility than any single individual for the increased level of political violence in the USA.”
And that’s a perfectly valid opinion, and I never suggested it’s invalid although I think it’s wildly exaggerated. Same as polar opposite opinions to yours are also valid opinions.
Obviously, the most useful opinions on here are those surmising re impacts on poll movements, rather than endlessly recycling my opinion (or using a 3rd party website quote to do so) in a thousand different ways. (not suggesting you are a chief offender of that btw)
I guess Nate Silver has stopped doing Peter Thiel’s bidding for some reason, because his model is now more bullish for Harris (54.1%) than The Economist’s (53%).
So Harris has pledged to get rid of the filibuster to legislate reproductive freedom. Let the hyperbole commence!
…
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/09/24/harris-filibuster-abortion/
An interesting polling disconnect is what the large national, and even state, polls identify and weight as demographic voting intention – and the dedicated polls which drill into a particular cohort. A few of the latter today
Why it matters: New data from the nonpartisan APIAVote and AAPIData show that Harris, who is Black and Asian American, is generating excitement about one of the nation’s fast-growing voting constituencies.
It’s the first major survey of Asian American voters since President Biden dropped out of the race and Harris entered.
The big picture: Asian American voters in recent elections have been among the Democratic coalition that made the difference for Democrats in battleground states like Georgia.
By the numbers: According to the survey, 66% of Asian American voters now say they plan on voting for Harris compared to 28% for Trump. Only 6% said they were undecided or would back another candidate.
In a previous survey, 46% of Asian American voters backed Biden and 31% supported Trump, while 23% said they planned to vote for someone else or were undecided.
Intention to vote has also grown: 77% of Asian American voters said they are “absolutely certain” they will vote in the 2024 election, up from 68 percent who said the same a few months ago.
https://www.axios.com/2024/09/24/harris-asian-american-voters-survey
And a second cohort being underweighted is youth…
Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump by 31 percentage points among likely young voters, according to the latest iteration of the Harvard Institute of Politics Youth Poll.
The poll, released by the Harvard Public Opinion Project Tuesday morning, found 61 percent of 18-to-29-year-olds nationwide voting for Harris, 30 percent voting for Trump, and 9 percent expressing support for other candidates or undecided — with Harris leading by double digits on key issues including abortion, climate change, and gun violence.
When the IOP last conducted the poll in March — before President Joe Biden stepped out of the race — only 50 percent of likely young voters said they would vote for Biden.
“In just a few weeks, Vice President Harris has drummed up a wave of enthusiasm among young voters,” Anil Cacodcar ’26, chair of HPOP, said in a press release. “Harris is enjoying a perfect storm of personal appeal, policy support, and positive reach on social media.”
https://www.thecrimson.com/article/2024/9/24/youth-poll-fall-2024/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
With UN Chief António Guterres saying in UN General assembly that Lebanon could become another ‘Gaza’, tensions must be running high in US Muslim community. As it is they have turned against Biden administration decisively in the last 10 months and polls are showing Harris may get about 12% of their vote, this may be the October surprise preponed to September to help Trump.
Suddenly, NYT polls is showing Trump is leading in Georgia and Arizona leading by 5% and others polling showing MI to be tied, is it possible the September surprise surprise is showing desired effect?
We have electoral proof in UK and Australia, Muslims are showing their anger against “progressive” parties at the ballot.
”
William Bowesays:
Wednesday, September 25, 2024 at 5:37 am
I guess Nate Silver has stopped doing Peter Thiel’s bidding for some reason, because his model is now more bullish for Harris (54.1%) than The Economist’s (53%).
”
Was it hard for Silver to believe latest NYT/Sienna poll, Trump and Harris are tied nationally and Trump leading decisively in Georgia and Arizona?
The governors might not be MAGA but the electoral officials in most of those states are definitely MAGA.
https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/trump-swing-state-officials-election-deniers-1235069692/
Bullfinch Group has some Florida polling very bullish for Harris
Trump 48
Harris 47
Also Georgia
Trump 47
Harris 49
And North Carolina
Trump 48
Harris 49
https://cdn.prod.website-files.com/65fc824cf835683ce2d3549b/66f2fc6cef3551afcccb8041_Independent%20Center%20Sep%202024%20SE%20Swing%20Survey%20Toplines.pdf
”
sprocket_says:
Wednesday, September 25, 2024 at 6:40 am
And a second cohort being underweighted is youth…
Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump by 31 percentage points among likely young voters, according to the latest iteration of the Harvard Institute of Politics Youth Poll.
”
This youth vote could be in flux now Israel-Lebanon war is escalating and Lebanon could become another ‘Gaza’.
From that poll of young people:
”
Confessionssays:
Wednesday, September 25, 2024 at 6:51 am
Adam Carlson@admcrlsn
·
7h
A big reason why 2022 mattered:
Not a single swing state has a MAGA governor that’ll play footsie with overturning election results:
AZ: Hobbs (D)
GA: Kemp (R) — normie Republican
MI: Whitmer (D)
NV: Lombardo (R) — normie Republican
NC: Cooper (D)*
PA: Shapiro (D)
WI: Evers (D)
The governors might not be MAGA but the electoral officials in most of those states are definitely MAGA.
In the swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, Rolling Stone and American Doom identified nearly 70 pro-Trump election conspiracists currently working as county election officials who have questioned the validity of elections or delayed or refused to certify results. At least 20 of these county election officials have refused or delayed certification in recent years.
https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/trump-swing-state-officials-election-deniers-1235069692/
”
These MAGA electoral officials are a real threat to Harris if the election turns out to be very close in favour of Harris.
WaPo lead article…
In her first six weeks on top of the Democratic presidential ticket, Kamala Harris surpassed the total number of campaign contributors that President Joe Biden had acquired in his 15 months of campaigning. Harris has received contributions from 3.8 million individual donors, more than 70 percent of whom were unique to her and did not donate to Biden. As the vice president rides a wave of enthusiasm, seen in the large crowds at her rallies and the flood of new volunteers who have signed up to help the campaign, she has attracted more young donors and more donors in critical swing states.
……
In Georgia, Harris has 103,000 total donors, more than twice Biden’s 48,000. But her numbers grew the most in Atlanta and its suburbs, and she also saw bumps in smaller cities such as Macon and Savannah.
……
Donations in North Carolina showed a similar pattern: Harris had around 118,000 total donors to Biden’s 60,000 and racked up support in the Research Triangle, consisting of Raleigh, Durham and Chapel Hill, alongside other major North Carolina metros.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/09/24/kamala-harris-younger-donors/