Newspoll should be along from The Australian this evening if it follows its usual three-weekly pattern, and we’re also about due for a Freshwater Strategy poll overnight from the Financial Review. For the time being, there’s the following electorally relevant news from the past week:
• Former New South Wales Premier Dominic Perrottet announced his resignation from parliament on Friday to take up a position as US head of corporate and external relations for BHP. This will necessitate a by-election for his safe northern Sydney seat of Epping, presumably to be held concurrently with that for former Treasurer Matt Kean’s nearby seat of Hornsby.
• Nine Newspapers reports further numbers from last week’s Resolve Strategic poll showing 41% believe Fatima Payman should relinquish her seat to a new Labor Senator, compared with 29% who support her course of remaining as an independent. However, 54% believe Labor should allow caucus members more freedom to vote in parliament as they wish, with only 16% holding the contrary view.
• It has been widely reported that the government will introduce a package of electoral reform legislation next month, although Michelle Grattan of The Conversation reports it will not include the blockbuster proposal to increase the number of territory Senators, which has failed to find support, and is unlikely to be in place in time for the next election. What will be featured are truth-in-advertising laws on the South Australian model; a reduction of the threshold for public disclosure of donations from the current $16,900 to $1000, together with much stricter time frames for disclosure, reducing to daily at the business end of the campaign period; and a system of spending caps limiting the amount that can be spent on campaigning in any given electorate to $1 million. The latter is most obviously targeted at Clive Palmer, but teal independents have complained of their potential to hinder crowd-funded campaigns against major party incumbents, with Monique Ryan and Allegra Spender’s respective campaign spends in Kooyong and Wentworth at the 2022 election each having exceed $2 million.
Federal preselection news:
• Warren Entsch has confirmed he will not recontest the far north Queensland seat of Leichhardt, which he has held as a Liberal for all but one term since 1996. The Australian reports Labor’s candidate is Matt Smith, former professional basketballer turned Together Union organiser, who was preselected unopposed last week.
• Deloitte director Madonna Jarrett will again be Labor’s candidate for the seat of Brisbane, which Stephen Bates won for the Greens from the Liberal National Party in 2022.
• Jack Dietsch of The West Australian reports that Liberal preselection contests loom for the Labor-held Perth seats of Swan and Hasluck, both of which were won by Labor in 2022, with respective margins of 9.6% AND 10.7% under the proposed new boundaries. The candidates in Swan are Nick Marvin, former chief executive of the Perth Wildcats basketball and Western Force rugby league clubs; Matthew Evans, an army veteran who now works for Mineral Resources; and Mic Fels, a grains farmer. The candidates in Hasluck are Philip Couper, a contracts and procurement consultant and former adviser to state One Nation MLC Colin Ticknell; David Goode, a Gosnells councillor; and Ashutosh Kumar, a credit assessor at Westpac. Pearce, which was gained in 2022 and has a margin of 9.1% on the proposed new boundaries, and Cowan, which Anne Aly has held for Labor since 2016 with a new margin of 9.7%, have each attracted one candidate: respectively, Jan Norberger, who held the state seat of Joondalup from 2013 to 2017, and Felicia Adeniyi, manager at St Luke’s GP Medical.
• Jack Dietsch of The West Australian reports Labor has preselected the top three candidates for its Western Australian Senate ticket: Ellie Whiteaker, the party’s state secretary, who is aligned to the Left faction Australian Manufacturing Workers Union; Varun Ghosh, a Right-aligned former barrister who filled the vacancy created by Pat Dodson’s retirement in February; and Deep Singh, a staffer to Cowan MP Anne Aly aligned with the Left faction United Workers Union. The party’s two members elected in 2019 to terms that will expire in the middle of next year were the aforementioned Pat Dodson and Left-aligned Louise Pratt, who announced in February that she would not seek re-election.
Phil Coorey on Freshwater..
Labor’s poll numbers have been flat since December and party sources say it is a product of grievance politics, which is afflicting incumbents in Australia and abroad.
The poll shows pessimism is rife; 56 per cent believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, as opposed to 29 per cent who believe otherwise. This is the poll’s lowest level of optimism since the election.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/coalition-overtakes-labor-in-popular-vote-20240721-p5jv8y#:~:text=The%20Coalition%20has%20inched%20ahead,next%20go%20to%20the%20polls.
‘davidwh says:
Sunday, July 21, 2024 at 7:14 pm
At 40% primary vote the LNP is competitive.’
—————–
Indeed. As noted previously Dutton is laughing his arse off at the help Bandt is giving him.
12 days until Higgins v Reynolds starts.
Yeah, probably settled on the threshhold, but, y’know, who knew what when and could those 675,000 lost votes return to L-NP plus a few trainloads more?
BW< please explain how this is Bandts doing… Labor keeps tripping itself up, simple as that
You are delusional Badthinker to think the blue-on-blue hate fest will impact Labor.
Everyone knows the Liberals hate and demean women, and this Lehrmann/ Reynolds shitfest simply prolongs
‘sprocket_ says:
Sunday, July 21, 2024 at 7:17 pm
Phil Coorey on Freshwater..
Labor’s poll numbers have been flat since December and party sources say it is a product of grievance politics, which is afflicting incumbents in Australia and abroad.
….’
——————-
There is no doubt that the Thug and the Bandicoot have been astroturfing various grievances with the help of the MSM.
My view remains that those grievance would count for nowt if people’s standard of living were generally increasing.
They aren’t.
The international drivers don’t look all that promising.
China is in a perilous situation.
Trump’s impact on the global economy is highly unpredictable but cannot be expected to be benign.
The War in the Ukraine and its inflationary impacts will not go away.
The latest attack on Houthi oil installations will feed straight into insurance premium increases and increased fuel costs.
Climate related insurance premiums will continue to climb quite rapidly.
Perhaps if Blinkin manages to belt Israel and Hamas around the ears enough we might just get a ceasefire in the ME. That would help.
The mismatch between housing supply and demand is being helped by the Thug and the Bandicoot blocking supply side measures.
So the Thug/Bandicoot political bastardy is not going to go away any time soon.
Herald Sun 21/07
Premier Jacinta Allan has been forced to swoop in to save a bumbling Victorian minister who refused to answer whether he was made aware of intimidation concerns by CFMEU members on a Big Build project earlier this year.
During a trainwreck press conference on Sunday, Ms Allan stepped in to stop questioning of Minister for Transport Infrastructure Danny Pearson.
The minister had dodged several questions by journalists about how much he knew after contractors met in May to discuss union behaviour occurring on Suburban Rail Loop sites.
_____________________
Absolutely useless.
Hard to believe he is charge of delivering the Suburban Rail Loop.
LB
The Bandicoot is caucusing with Dutton to prevent/delay/stymie good government policy.
It is Adam Bandt’s fault, and he should be managed out
I must admit that I would enjoy a wry chuckle at the consternation of the Greens if they succeed so well in their ambition of destroying Labor that Dutton becomes the next prime minister.
The Bandicoot is certainly doing his worst in this respect.
And Freshwater has a go at projecting seats – which shows what an Everest the Liberals have to climb..
When those polled are asked how they would distribute their preference, the Coalition forged a lead of 51-49, up from the 50-50 dead heat at the June poll.
This represents a two-party swing against Labor of almost 3.2 per cent since the last election. If replicated at the next election, due by May 2025 at the latest, and the swing was uniform, Labor could lose as many as seven seats.
This would take its current tally of a notional 78 seats to 71 seats, well below the 76 needed to govern in its own right. Labor would need more than just the four Greens to pass legislation, should it be opposed by the opposition. There are currently a notional 15 members of the crossbench in the lower house.
Under the same scenario, the opposition would lift its seat tally from a notional 58 seats to somewhere in the mid-60s.
A year or so ago labor ahead 57-43 give it another year like the last they will be behind 57-43.
… what is he doing there hanging around a primary school. Is he concerned that Lilley may be in play perhaps).
Footnote – Lilley used to be Mr Swans old seat.
Swan lost in ’96, very close in 2013, couldn’t be called safe for Labor, LNP candidate selection in ’22 was disaster.
Swan had a big presence in the electorate, Annika Wells another Maurice Blackburn product, like Senator Murray Watt, worked on Immigration cases, possibly not a great fit for a pale stale seat?
sprocket, strongly disagree on that narrative, especially since the Labor policy the greens have “blocked” has been shit (and maybe Labor should be prepared to negotiate…)
Sprocket_
Under the same scenario, the opposition would lift its seat tally from a notional 58 seats to somewhere in the mid-60s.
Sounds about right, good result 2 years in.
Hard to believe L-NP can be competitive and be running on a Nuclear policy, but I guess we’re not in 1978 anymore?
Sprocket, do you still believe Biden’s debate performance was a cunning plan to lure Trump into a false sense of confidence and then destroy him?
It was certainly a very novel theory, interesting to know if you still believe it?
Despite what lib/nats propagandist Phil Coorey claims
it is completely false
Labor goes into the 2025 federal election
78 seats
Lib/nats 55 seats
Albanese should call the election now, the longer this goes on he’s going to lose. Whiffs of the Gillard Government.
The Greens are pushing Labor in the direction they need to go but for whatever reason don’t want to. Labor haven’t had a great economic hand but people don’t really see them doing anything that gives people hope that things will improve in the future so chances are Labor will continue to go backwards while it stands by a Shit Lite platform. I agree that it is probably in Labor’s interest to go to an election later this year can’t see it getting better for Labor this term.
BadT
If the Coalition wins 10 and gets to 65, they still need 11 Independents + a Speaker to control the treasury benches.
If I was Dutton, I’d start smooching the old money and young professionals in the inner cities he has lost, rather than badmouthing them.
Vladsays:
Sunday, July 21, 2024 at 6:47 pm
Forget about world events, assassinations, Ukraine and the Middle East. Nadia needs her polls. KB, WB, Ven and Sprocket. C’mon, get to work. Drop everything.
Sorry , like your enthusiasm and commentary by the way Nadia88. You are an interesting and thorough poster on this site! Just having fun.
================
All good Vlad! Yes I probably do get a bit caught up in the polls, but that is what the site is set up for. The other stuff, bar U.S. politics, I keep out of. Sorry WB, Ven & KB. No I don’t expect any of you to drop everything to provide poll data. Apologies if this came across wrong.
Welcome to the site too Vlad. I don’t think I’ve seen your name/posts before, but welcome anyway.
S. Simpson says:
Sunday, July 21, 2024 at 7:47 pm
Albanese should call the election now, the longer this goes on he’s going to lose. Whiffs of the Gillard Government.
—————–
The federal lib/nats combined primary vote averaging 36% making no inroads
2022 federal election result is more likely than not
The cream puffs at Labor HQ simply don’t have the political wherewithall to counter Dutton’s aggressiveness.
Albo has forgotten how to fight tories because he’s too busy being Churchill
As I near 70 years of age I find I’m likely to wake up one morning and realise I don’t give a shite anymore.
Certainly if Labor can’t manage to eek out two terms this time around I’ll chuck it in.
If Australian’s want Dutton what is the point.
Scott at this stage the best probable hope is a Labor minority government. If prices don’t come down soon then Dutton will win.
Just wondering….is Chalmers ever going to fire-up or did I over estimate his capacities.
Mundo the point is you are still alive and every vote counts. Besides I can’t see the Coalition forming government but minority government is a real possibility.
Petrol prices are stubbornly high and are a daily reminder of the Albanese government’s inability to tackle the cost of living effectively.
A term of minority government will probably lead to voters going back to the major parties. That’s assuming people see minority government a messy process.
Personally I’m going to wait to see what happens in the USA before making a sweeping judgement on Albanese.
Ok so how long will Labor’s next heroic period in opposition last?
My money is on three terms…..maybe four.
Think about it, Labor is going to lose to Dutton, Taylor…Ley for crisakes.
It beggars belief.
Mundo @ #275 Sunday, July 21st, 2024 – 8:01 pm
Frankly, Chalmers has to work on his delivery so that he doesn’t come across as sounding like a vacuum cleaner.
I mean Pete Buttigieg managed it, he became very easy to listen to over these past 4 years.
Cheer up – Only 17 more days until Albo passes Jim Scullin’s term in office. Hard realistically to see him staying in the saddle another 200 days and surpassing Edmund Barton or 220 days and surpassing Heavy Kevvie.
Says a lot about this country that we have managed 6 failed PM’s in a row now.
S Simpson a problem for Labor is that it suited them to make a lot of noise about cost of living CRISIS, housing CRISIS and thereby created an expectation they would solve these issues.
Serious, how does one deal with cost of living issues without stoking inflation.
And just on petrol prices, we have no control over it. We import all our oil so good luck reducing that cost.
S. Simpson says:
Sunday, July 21, 2024 at 8:00 pm
Scott at this stage the best probable hope is a Labor minority government. If prices don’t come down soon then Dutton will win.
——————————–
Peter Dutton or Angus Taylor who ever is the leader of the federal liberal party
have to provide details and costings of
Nuclear thought bubble
Supermarket thought bubble
Explain how keeping the majority of policies from 2022 federal election which cause rises in electricity prices, interest rate, cost of living , and inflation over 6% is going to help bringing down current cost of living
July 31 will that fire up Treasurer?
Ya don’t import massive amounts of people like labor has driving up inflation.
High inflation number on that date watch the shit fight between labor and the reserve bank before its rate announcement a week later.
Labor’s fate at the next election lies all in the hands of the RBA.
If the next move by the RBA is up coz inflation remains stubbornly high (thanks largely to unnecessary extreme action on climate change) then Dutton will scrape home.
If the RBA lowers rates or even possibly doesn’t move on rates, then Albo will get another term!
Voters feel pressure from the cost of living, high inflation, high rents, high interest
rates and possibly most important of all, high energy prices (given they were promised a warm winter as they sit there wasting money with their heaters/air-con on).
Munson
Think about it, Labor is going to lose to Dutton, Taylor…Ley for crisakes.
It beggars belief
Must be very jaundiced down there in the Apple Isle.
Not so much up here.
Kirby you start by blaming the previous government, the head of the Reserve Bank, the banks, the supermarkets etc but eventually people will look to the government for blame.
You guys acting like the LnP’s leading 60 40 Like I’m a long-time reader of this Website Like it’s kind of sad that when people see LNP up by one They go insane Like oh no Dalton is going to lead four terms How is he has he doesn’t even have the seats to get Near minority government Like calm down and see what happens If this was Before The Election yeah But damn you guys act insane Who knows maybe I want to go on this website Anymore Like what you imagine if Peter Dalton became prime minister How long do you think He lost before people hate him Like Tony Abbott Popular as opposition leader unpopular as prime minister
Lots of parallels between the Biden Administration and the Albanese Government. Both were off to a great start before it all started to fall away quickly. I am not suggesting that Albanese is cognitively impaired like Biden but for someone who allegedly comes from the Left of politics Albanese appears to be disconnected from working Australians.
Young Liberals at work – I remember the time when the Young Liberals had a great reputation for partying and not much political stuff. Nowadays…
Scott @ #285 Sunday, July 21st, 2024 – 8:10 pm
That’s just the thing. That doesn’t matter. What does matter is that all the swing voters that don’t want to make a fuss either turn on the TV after work, listen to the radio at work, or listen to their boomer bosses for the constant message of “Labor is shit. Labor will always be shit. Your life sucks, and your only choice to improve it is to vote LNP. Don’t question me, just do it.” And that’s how it’ll likely go.
Looking at Sportsbet
ALP 1.55
LNP 2.50
https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/politics/australian-federal-politics/48th-parliament-of-australia-6560505
Date of election
2024 7.00
2025 1.10
One of either the bookies or some of the posters on this blog are full of piss and wind
https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/politics/australian-federal-politics/year-of-next-federal-election-6570301
Lars Von Triersays:
Sunday, July 21, 2024 at 8:07 pm
Says a lot about Lars that Lars has spent all day , all month and an eternity repeating the same hypotheticals and has just about convinced Lars of his own bullshit and immortality.
Good onya Larsy
However it is unfair to blame Albanese for all the government’s woes, but his cabinet is characterised by mediocrity.
Our problems are not easy to solve. There are no easy solutions. Don’t create an expectation that the government can solve all these issues. We badly need some honest and open communication between politicians and the communities. Won’t hold my breath.
Voters throw out Liberals because Labor promises them something different (alongside rises for the Greens and the emergence of the centre right, social progressive teals).
Labor engages in policies that are basically Coalition light, or slight adjustments to existing Coalition policies.
Labor surprised they are losing voters.
Not really difficult; turns out when your promise voters something different, it doesnt mean neoliberal market based policies with a different coat of paint…
I mean nothing exemplifies this more then the NACC; promise voters a proper regulatory system to prevent corruption in politics… and then work with the Libs, the very party thats actions had helped bring corruption to the forefront during the previous campaign.
Amazing, well done Albo
Bit rich for Dreyfus to be talking about elder abuse when he was part of the parliament that legalised image-based abuse against elderly residents of nursing homes. It was one of the darkest, most shameful days in Australian Parliament’s history when they made legal the intimate recording of nursing home residents getting dressed, showering and toileting without their knowledge and consent, instead of criminalising it and putting the scum in jail like they were meant to.
The threat of the federal Lib/nats changing the stage 3 tax cuts back to the original
Where the rich gets bigger tax cuts , wage rises while the majority will get less wage rises and tax cuts
Even if they keep the current
Inflation and interest rate rises will be odds on
The federal lib/nats are done
Looking at Dr Bonham’s aggregation..
My 2PP all-polls aggregate (last-election prefs) responds to this by remaining at 50.6 to ALP pending Newspoll. Those doing pollster-released prefs will probably move a little more towards L-NP off it.