Newspoll should be along from The Australian this evening if it follows its usual three-weekly pattern, and we’re also about due for a Freshwater Strategy poll overnight from the Financial Review. For the time being, there’s the following electorally relevant news from the past week:
• Former New South Wales Premier Dominic Perrottet announced his resignation from parliament on Friday to take up a position as US head of corporate and external relations for BHP. This will necessitate a by-election for his safe northern Sydney seat of Epping, presumably to be held concurrently with that for former Treasurer Matt Kean’s nearby seat of Hornsby.
• Nine Newspapers reports further numbers from last week’s Resolve Strategic poll showing 41% believe Fatima Payman should relinquish her seat to a new Labor Senator, compared with 29% who support her course of remaining as an independent. However, 54% believe Labor should allow caucus members more freedom to vote in parliament as they wish, with only 16% holding the contrary view.
• It has been widely reported that the government will introduce a package of electoral reform legislation next month, although Michelle Grattan of The Conversation reports it will not include the blockbuster proposal to increase the number of territory Senators, which has failed to find support, and is unlikely to be in place in time for the next election. What will be featured are truth-in-advertising laws on the South Australian model; a reduction of the threshold for public disclosure of donations from the current $16,900 to $1000, together with much stricter time frames for disclosure, reducing to daily at the business end of the campaign period; and a system of spending caps limiting the amount that can be spent on campaigning in any given electorate to $1 million. The latter is most obviously targeted at Clive Palmer, but teal independents have complained of their potential to hinder crowd-funded campaigns against major party incumbents, with Monique Ryan and Allegra Spender’s respective campaign spends in Kooyong and Wentworth at the 2022 election each having exceed $2 million.
Federal preselection news:
• Warren Entsch has confirmed he will not recontest the far north Queensland seat of Leichhardt, which he has held as a Liberal for all but one term since 1996. The Australian reports Labor’s candidate is Matt Smith, former professional basketballer turned Together Union organiser, who was preselected unopposed last week.
• Deloitte director Madonna Jarrett will again be Labor’s candidate for the seat of Brisbane, which Stephen Bates won for the Greens from the Liberal National Party in 2022.
• Jack Dietsch of The West Australian reports that Liberal preselection contests loom for the Labor-held Perth seats of Swan and Hasluck, both of which were won by Labor in 2022, with respective margins of 9.6% AND 10.7% under the proposed new boundaries. The candidates in Swan are Nick Marvin, former chief executive of the Perth Wildcats basketball and Western Force rugby league clubs; Matthew Evans, an army veteran who now works for Mineral Resources; and Mic Fels, a grains farmer. The candidates in Hasluck are Philip Couper, a contracts and procurement consultant and former adviser to state One Nation MLC Colin Ticknell; David Goode, a Gosnells councillor; and Ashutosh Kumar, a credit assessor at Westpac. Pearce, which was gained in 2022 and has a margin of 9.1% on the proposed new boundaries, and Cowan, which Anne Aly has held for Labor since 2016 with a new margin of 9.7%, have each attracted one candidate: respectively, Jan Norberger, who held the state seat of Joondalup from 2013 to 2017, and Felicia Adeniyi, manager at St Luke’s GP Medical.
• Jack Dietsch of The West Australian reports Labor has preselected the top three candidates for its Western Australian Senate ticket: Ellie Whiteaker, the party’s state secretary, who is aligned to the Left faction Australian Manufacturing Workers Union; Varun Ghosh, a Right-aligned former barrister who filled the vacancy created by Pat Dodson’s retirement in February; and Deep Singh, a staffer to Cowan MP Anne Aly aligned with the Left faction United Workers Union. The party’s two members elected in 2019 to terms that will expire in the middle of next year were the aforementioned Pat Dodson and Left-aligned Louise Pratt, who announced in February that she would not seek re-election.
So what if Trump wins in the US which he will and he drills baby drills?
How is that going to affect climate change and with all the work/cost Australia has enacted on the climate?
The government should have not intervened and let all forms of energy compete on a level playing field. If renewables are the cheapest, good luck, go for it!
Lordbain – why do you think given the obvious disatisfaction with politics in this country (ie 30-40% of people voting other than Labor or Liberal), is no party advocating substantial political reform in this country?
Oh look, iffy numbers which still put Labor in the driver’s seat to form government… and Mundo, the southern hairy miseryguts emerges lol .
A spring wedding might assist – a time of rebirth, restoration, and renewal.
Dutts learnt the lesson of the Voice referendum and Albo didn’t.
It was:
The productive members of the society aren’t interested in Green/Teal issues, so don’t waste your time preaching at them.
Watching nine news Perth tonight and up pops “polling has just been released and it’s good news for the coalition”.
Stokes media will fire up in Aug when the industrial relations laws kick in.
The Coalition of nuclear warheads and super for houses. WOW ! What a future to vote for.
sprocket_says:
Sunday, July 21, 2024 at 8:24 pm
Looking at Dr Bonham’s aggregation..
My 2PP all-polls aggregate (last-election prefs) responds to this by remaining at 50.6 to ALP pending Newspoll. Those doing pollster-released prefs will probably move a little more towards L-NP off it.
=======================
Bludgertrack is sitting at 50.5%, so they are both pretty close.
Thanks for providing the Freshwater data too.
Lars, I would argue theres parties and groups out there offering non mainstream solutions; I also imagine we are at a point where the rusted on habits of supporting a 2 party system will continue to slip.
My only concern is that a right wing populist will have a field day with how shit Labor is atm…
I’ve got nothing against renewables. If they are the cheapest form of energy, as Chris”if you don’t like our policies don’t vote for them”Bowen keeps claiming – then go for it!
I would love to see wind farms on Manly, Balmoral, and Bodi Beach.
They could paint them maroon and white at Manly, red and black at Balmoral, and red, white & blue at Bondi.
Heck, I’d rather see that than Margot Robbie, Aryna Sabalenka, or Pamela Anderson parading there at the beach in the flick.
Well hang on, maybe not Aryna Sabalenka LOL
Dutts isn’t a right winger or a populist and I doubt he’ll last long as PM for that reason.
Labor keep on calling for Reaction, sooner or later they’ll get what they want, but they won’t like it.
If history is a guide, the Labor political party won’t do minority Govt anymore.
The fossil fuel cartel won’t want Teal/Green influence on energy export policy, as we’ve seen previously with the Gillard minority Govt.
The Labor political party may take their bat and ball and go home if they don’t get a HoR majority, just like Tas Labor did.
Labor and the L/NP could collude to force a new election if either fail to get a HoR majority.
Badthinker @ #303 Sunday, July 21st, 2024 – 8:31 pm
“The productive members of the society …” Oh, LOL!
Why not be honest and come right out and say the “worthy” members. Or perhaps the “deserving” members. Or is it the “Male, Stale, Yale and Pale” members. Oops – did I say that bit out loud? Sorry.
If Dutton is not a right winger then who is?
Some of the gainsayers here seem to be salivating the current polling, somehow, seeing the end of Labor in government at the next election.
I don’t believe this to be the case at all:
*This government is not of the Gillard era (which, incidentally went full term). It is free of any kind of scandal or internal division.
*Despite attempts to portray it otherwise, the government is competent in office.
*The stock market is at a very high point.
*Real wages are rising. Tax cuts, while poo-pooed, are real and represent money in the pocket despite the attempt to downplay them
*The Oz dollar has risen in value against other currencies
*Employment is strong
*Interest rates could be lower for home borrowers, but not so long ago, home loans were going out at 1 and 2% for borrowers and SFA for lenders
*There is no reason at all for Labor to go early to an election
*There is no reason for there to be a change in Labor leadership
*There is no reason to believe that the LNP has any policies at all which would make a significant difference to the Oz public if it gained office.
Come the next election….sometime between January and April of 2025 and the polls are as they are right now, Labor will be in office, again, in majority.
Perversely, if Trump wins, I sense this will be to Labor’s advantage as Dutton is aiming to be a paper thin replica of Trump here at home.
Dutton is aligned with the “National Right” faction of the Liberal Party, which he leads. He has been described as a right-wing populist.
Its even on his Wikipedia page.
Rex Douglas @ #311 Sunday, July 21st, 2024 – 8:48 pm
Utter nonsense. Tasmanian Labor is currently the worst performing state branch of the party, so it’s unlikely any mainland parties will take lessons from them as they are.
Federal Labor can work in minority, as I have seen with my own eyes, because at the very least in Question Time, the Teals ask constructive questions and the Labor ministers they ask give constructive answers. And it has been very refreshing to watch such exchanges. Much better than the usual brouhaha of Dorothy Dixers from the government backbench and the “Why are you so shit?” from the opposition.
Right wing populists could have a field day with how impractical & limited the Greens policies actually are. But they won’t, because it suits them to have the Greens around as spoilers.
steve davis at 8:51 pm
If Dutton is not a right winger then who is?
Probably have to go back to Senator Glen Shiel to find a right winger, he was defeated in 1990.
These days, they’d be wasting their time chasing preselection.
To make it clear, Labor are the Party of the Left/Extremem Left.
Once you can accept that, then placing Dutts in the centre isn’t hard.
BSA Bob… what? How does that even make any sense?
It’s estimated that 1.63 million Australians (31.4% of mortgage holders) are suffering from or at risk of mortgage stress. The tax cuts were welcomed but they were small fry relative to the increases in the cash rate. And I don’t think there’s much the government can do about it. That’s Labor’s primary problem, along with rising rents, though that’s a state issue. If the RBA increases the cash rate in August, it follows that Labor’s position in the polls could further suffer. Albanese should be brave by taking to the next election an undertaking to review CGT & NG. It’s better to die on your feet than to live on your knees – I think.
https://x.com/MollyJongFast/status/1814801610175881459
Bye Joe…
The situation with Higgin’s finances. Can Reynolds get at the money in Higgin’s Trust?
https://citynews.com.au/2024/reynolds-wins-access-to-higgins-2-4m-trust-documents/?utm_source=mailpoet&utm_medium=email&utm_source_platform=mailpoet&utm_campaign=canberra-daily-today-s-news-today_7801
By god, you write crap BT.
ALP is a centre-left party and the Coalition under Turnbull was a centre-right party but now it is a right party.
That is the reality, Dutton is not centre at all.
But you do amuse with your writings, they couldn’t be anymore wrong. Just like you early election predictions. Wasn’t it early August?
It is in the ALPs interest to go in May 25 – inflation will have moderated further and possible interest rate cuts.
Labor had a plan for CGT and NG. It was rejected. I wouldn’t be trying it again until there was no chance of winning the next election.
Lordbain @ 9.08
Course it makes sense. The Right needs the Greens on hand as one side of the “pincer movement” they’re making on the ALP.
yes yes BSA, its all a plot to pincer Labor… or maybe Labors policies are just shit?
Who can say,,,
Rex Douglas:
Sunday, July 21, 2024 at 9:16 pm
[‘https://x.com/MollyJongFast/status/1814801610175881459
Bye Joe…’]
I think you’re right & given that ad, it could be as early as tomorrow.
The Greens are finished if Dutton is elected. Bandicoot better be careful if he wishes it.
How the fuck are the Greens finished by a Dutton gov?
I haven’t seen clear evidence that Labor lost the 2019 election because of CGT and NG policies. It could just as easily be attributed to Shorten’s unpopularity. Labor’s primary vote went backwards in 2022 so it’s not like small target is working swimmingly for them anyway.
The assertion that the Greens are finished if Dutton becomes PM is laughable. It’s easier to blame others for the current predicament than accept that Labor currently suck.
BSA Bob at 9:03 pm
Right wing populists could have a field day with how impractical & limited the Greens policies actually are.
If there were any, yeah.
But, voters don’t like being told stuff, and
if the L/NP goes down the right Wing/Populist track, they’ll need Right Wing Populist policies.
Better to muddle along with the Parliamentary system and accept John Howards advice that
The Australian people always get it right.
Because Dutton will negotiate fuck all with them thats for sure.
Rex D @ 9.16pm
They should swear in Kamala on Aug 1st. She takes on Trump as President.
Kamala must show serious strong leadership (no laughing or giggling) devising a clear path forward.
The entire Democratic Party unites behind her as she exposes all of Trump’s lies and being a woman, gets under his skin.
It’s worth a shot, nothing to lose!
steve, so hows that any different then the current Labor gov?
Dont worry though, im sure Labor will do what they did during the ATM period… make noise but help pass Coalition policy 🙂
Lordbain @ #330 Sunday, July 21st, 2024 – 9:31 pm
Not necessarily “finished”, but if you take a look back at how the Greens fared in the 2013-15 Abbott government, they didn’t really achieve much there, did they?
I think reasonable changes to negative gearing, dividend imputation and CGT could be made providing this was done in a communication of fairness to all parties and without class warfare rhetoric.
mj
Well obviously Shorten was more important than the policy, so no point going back to any NG changes at all.
”
Lordbainsays:
Sunday, July 21, 2024 at 7:39 pm
sprocket, strongly disagree on that narrative, especially since the Labor policy the greens have “blocked” has been shit (and maybe Labor should be prepared to negotiate…)
”
Keep believing that LB, keep believing that. You accuse Labor partisans of tin ear and completely partisanship. The thing is you are no different when it comes to Greens political party. With what they are doing The Greens are taking down ALP along with them. Unfortunately whether you like it and accept it or not, That is what is happening with Greens actions.
51:49 to Labor ,
Kirk, its a bit more complicated then saying “party x did y during this period, ergo when ever its party x the same will occur”
Also where are current Green voters going to go?
Polling now is virtually irrelevant. Most voters are currently unengaged. The RBA will avoid lifting rates and try as hard as possible to cut them before the ALP goes to the polls. There’ll be swings and roundabouts but in the end Albotross is more than likely to be back in power after the next election.
In a sense, the ALP is already a minority government, in that it has to negotiate with cross-bench senators to get legislation through. Being in a minority in the House would simply require more of that (and might even be easier, since the Teals in general are saner than the likes of Hanson, Babet, ….)
A lot of the sense of instability during the Gillard government flowed from the theatrics of the House, and specifically from the way in which Mr Abbott was able to disrupt Question Time again and again with motions to suspend Standing Orders. But the Standing Orders of the House have now been amended to prevent that from happening.
Oopsie. That doesn’t suit the narrative.
Federal Newspoll
TPP: ALP 51 (0) L/NP 49 (0)
Primaries: ALP 33 (+1) L/NP 38 (+2) GRN 13 (0) ON 6 (-1) Others 10 (-2)
https://theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/newspoll-less-than-a-third-want-anthony-albanese-as-labor-leader-peter-dutton-no-better-off/news-story/2290bdfa9e1f294b21ed09f94d651370
poll conducted July 15 – 19 with 1258 voters
Newspoll: Less than a third want PM, Dutton’s no better
As the odds of a minority government at the next election increase, less than a third of voters say Anthony Albanese is their preferred leader of the Labor Party.
Its all I can see. Not paying for the rest of their shit.
LVT is crying in his chardonnay.
An exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australian shows only 28 per cent of voters nominated both Mr Albanese and Mr Dutton as their preferred leaders of their respective parties, ahead of five other chosen candidates, with more voters unable to nominate anyone as their favoured leader.
Despite Labor maintaining a lead in the two-party-preferred stakes, Mr Albanese’s disapproval rating is now higher than Mr Dutton’s, and the preferred prime minister contest has narrowed to just seven points in Mr Albanese’s favour.
An exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australian shows only 28 per cent of voters nominated both Mr Albanese and Mr Dutton as their preferred leaders of their respective parties, ahead of five other chosen candidates, with more voters unable to nominate anyone as their favoured leader.
This is the closest margin between Mr Albanese and Mr Dutton since the 2022 election. In a special Newspoll question, Mr Albanese was clearly favoured as the preferred Labor leader among Labor voters at 59 per cent.
Mr Dutton received majority backing among Coalition voters at 54 per cent but only 28 per cent of all voters chose Mr Dutton over potential Liberal Party rivals.
Country Liberal and opposition Indigenous affairs spokeswoman, Jacinta Nampijinpa Price was the next most favoured with 14 per cent, followed by deputy Liberal leader Sussan Ley at 6 per cent.
The Greens may not be finished by a Dutton government but they’ll find life a lot harder. Should they try their oppose everything grandstanding on Dutton they’ll face the full force of what Labor faces all the time. Their sound & feel good policies will be ridiculed by the daily press, Sky news will notice them, the ABC will take its orders & get stuck into them, the “Labor soft on Defence!!!” line will be converted to “Greens soft on Defence!!!” & on & on.
The Greens’ only alternative in such a situation would be to quietly vote against coalition measures to keep the fans happy while continuing their current attacks on Labor.
Lars Von Trier:
[‘Sunday, July 21, 2024 at 9:37 pm
51:49 to Labor ,’]
Seems like Labor will have a PV with a 3 in front of it.