Newspoll should be along from The Australian this evening if it follows its usual three-weekly pattern, and we’re also about due for a Freshwater Strategy poll overnight from the Financial Review. For the time being, there’s the following electorally relevant news from the past week:
• Former New South Wales Premier Dominic Perrottet announced his resignation from parliament on Friday to take up a position as US head of corporate and external relations for BHP. This will necessitate a by-election for his safe northern Sydney seat of Epping, presumably to be held concurrently with that for former Treasurer Matt Kean’s nearby seat of Hornsby.
• Nine Newspapers reports further numbers from last week’s Resolve Strategic poll showing 41% believe Fatima Payman should relinquish her seat to a new Labor Senator, compared with 29% who support her course of remaining as an independent. However, 54% believe Labor should allow caucus members more freedom to vote in parliament as they wish, with only 16% holding the contrary view.
• It has been widely reported that the government will introduce a package of electoral reform legislation next month, although Michelle Grattan of The Conversation reports it will not include the blockbuster proposal to increase the number of territory Senators, which has failed to find support, and is unlikely to be in place in time for the next election. What will be featured are truth-in-advertising laws on the South Australian model; a reduction of the threshold for public disclosure of donations from the current $16,900 to $1000, together with much stricter time frames for disclosure, reducing to daily at the business end of the campaign period; and a system of spending caps limiting the amount that can be spent on campaigning in any given electorate to $1 million. The latter is most obviously targeted at Clive Palmer, but teal independents have complained of their potential to hinder crowd-funded campaigns against major party incumbents, with Monique Ryan and Allegra Spender’s respective campaign spends in Kooyong and Wentworth at the 2022 election each having exceed $2 million.
Federal preselection news:
• Warren Entsch has confirmed he will not recontest the far north Queensland seat of Leichhardt, which he has held as a Liberal for all but one term since 1996. The Australian reports Labor’s candidate is Matt Smith, former professional basketballer turned Together Union organiser, who was preselected unopposed last week.
• Deloitte director Madonna Jarrett will again be Labor’s candidate for the seat of Brisbane, which Stephen Bates won for the Greens from the Liberal National Party in 2022.
• Jack Dietsch of The West Australian reports that Liberal preselection contests loom for the Labor-held Perth seats of Swan and Hasluck, both of which were won by Labor in 2022, with respective margins of 9.6% AND 10.7% under the proposed new boundaries. The candidates in Swan are Nick Marvin, former chief executive of the Perth Wildcats basketball and Western Force rugby league clubs; Matthew Evans, an army veteran who now works for Mineral Resources; and Mic Fels, a grains farmer. The candidates in Hasluck are Philip Couper, a contracts and procurement consultant and former adviser to state One Nation MLC Colin Ticknell; David Goode, a Gosnells councillor; and Ashutosh Kumar, a credit assessor at Westpac. Pearce, which was gained in 2022 and has a margin of 9.1% on the proposed new boundaries, and Cowan, which Anne Aly has held for Labor since 2016 with a new margin of 9.7%, have each attracted one candidate: respectively, Jan Norberger, who held the state seat of Joondalup from 2013 to 2017, and Felicia Adeniyi, manager at St Luke’s GP Medical.
• Jack Dietsch of The West Australian reports Labor has preselected the top three candidates for its Western Australian Senate ticket: Ellie Whiteaker, the party’s state secretary, who is aligned to the Left faction Australian Manufacturing Workers Union; Varun Ghosh, a Right-aligned former barrister who filled the vacancy created by Pat Dodson’s retirement in February; and Deep Singh, a staffer to Cowan MP Anne Aly aligned with the Left faction United Workers Union. The party’s two members elected in 2019 to terms that will expire in the middle of next year were the aforementioned Pat Dodson and Left-aligned Louise Pratt, who announced in February that she would not seek re-election.
Good Morning
Thanks William
I mainly support the Labor electoral reforms but share the concern about giving advantage to the major parties and I hope this can be addressed in a fair way without undoing the intent of improving and defending our democracy.
What’s the bet the Greens this week do some kinda variant on not far enough. Labor should be paying its donors, every household should have its own senator.
Insiders Sunday, 21 Jul
David Speers and the panel Raf Epstein, Karen Middleton and Shane Wright discuss growing momentum behind calls for President Biden to step down as Democratic nominee, crisis in the CFMEU, plus hydrogen and renewable energy.
GUEST : Zoe Daniel – Independent Member For Goldstein
Very disappointing that the proposed electoral reforms do not include an additional two Senators for the ACT and the NT. It is hardly democratic that Tasmania with a population of about 550,000 has 12 Senators elected for 6 year terms while the ACTs 350,000 people have 2 Senators elected for 3 years.
Political roundup:
A Searing Reminder That Trump Is Unwell: https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/archive/2024/07/a-searing-reminder-that-trump-is-unwell/679170/
Trump’s GOP is no country for MAGA women: https://www.salon.com/2024/07/20/the-clearest-message-of-the-convention-is-no-country-for-maga-women/
Democrats are gaming out post-Biden options while he remains insistent he’ll remain in the race: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/democrats-are-gaming-post-biden-options-remains-insistent-remain-race-rcna162857
Democratic donors funding an effort to vet potential VP candidates: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/07/20/democrat-donors-fund-vp-vetting-push/
Chip Roy calls to defund Secret Service after Trump assassination attempt: https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4783651-chip-roy-donald-trump-shooting-defund-secret-service/
Donald Trump’s Own Cabinet Did Not Think He Was Fit To Serve: https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trumps-own-cabinet-did-not-think-he-was-fit-serve-opinion-1927781
Pelosi Going Full Thunderdome?: https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/pelosi-going-full-thunderdome
Top security officials defend women in Secret Service: https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4783814-top-security-officials-defend-women-secret-service/
‘Can she win?’: Why Kamala Harris can’t shake doubts about her political future: https://www.politico.com/news/2024/07/20/democrats-harris-biden-elections-00169908
Starmer to hand teachers and nurses bumper pay rise: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/07/20/keir-starmer-hand-teachers-nurses-bumper-pay-rise/
Wes Streeting vows to get truth on bodged Tory promise to build 40 new hospitals: https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/wes-streeting-truth-new-hospitals-33288030
Russian tourists cancel Crimea holidays en-masse, Ukrainian military intelligence says: https://kyivindependent.com/russians-cancel-crimea-holidays-en-masse-tourist-season-ruined-hur-says/
Quad nations to oppose South China Sea militarization in Tokyo talks: https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2024/07/54ac6ad87a57-quad-nations-to-oppose-south-china-sea-militarization-in-tokyo-talks.html
Cuba admits to massive emigration wave: a million people left in two years amid crisis: https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/cuba/article290249799.html
Flames from Israeli strike on Yemen port ‘seen across Middle East’: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/07/20/flames-from-israeli-strike-yemen-port-seen-middle-east/
China raises Middle East diplomatic ambitions with talks between Hamas and rival Fatah: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/china-hamas-fatah-palestinian-unity-middle-east-diplomacy-rcna162825
Lots of stuff there, HH!
Robbo
It is even worse than that. ACT population is now up to 478,000 and growing fast.
At current growth rate ACT will overtake Tassie within ten years.
The greens will want a ban on donations from the likes of the fossil fuel industry and gambling and tobacco. I believe that’s an ambit claim, and personally I’d like to see them drop those in favour of the publication of ministerial diaries and some more transparency around lobbyists
As always the ALP will have a choice, work with the greens and cross bench to strengthen the legislation, or with with the coalition to pass something worse
phoenixREDsays:
Sunday, July 21, 2024 at 7:08 am
Insiders Sunday, 21 Jul
David Speers and the panel Raf Epstein, Karen Middleton and Shane Wright discuss growing momentum behind calls for President Biden to step down as Democratic nominee, crisis in the CFMEU, plus hydrogen and renewable energy.
_____________________
Raf Epstein. Jacinta Allan’s biggest fan. Thank God I will be on the road. Birthday lunch for my dad who turned 79 during the week.
Douglas and Milko I saw in one of your posts last night mention of astronomy. I had heard that in a few weeks time we’ll be able to see a variable nova brightening the sky. But I couldn’t track down which section, other than it will be as bright as one of the stars in Orion’s belt.
Any viewing tips?
Why is ABC tv news taking live feeds of a Trump rally as though it’s some kind of public service.
Mostly Interested @ #2 Sunday, July 21st, 2024 – 6:53 am
I was just thinking the same thing!
The Bandicoot has already said NO to electoral reform, unless it contains a ban on donations from coal and gas.
Tobacco he’s a bit mamby pamby about, having waved through relaxed vaping laws.
In addition, donations from extremely rich benefactors should be banned (or heavily capped), lest parties further slide into being the personal plaything of billionaires.
A better generic rule may be like:
– indexed 1m cap from membership based community organisations
– indexed 500K to 1m cap from companies with at least 75% Australian shareholders (and 50% non institutional)
– 10k to 100k cap indexed for individuals
– ban entirely foreign companies and privately held Aus ones.
Taylormade 7.28am
“Raf Epstein. Jacinta Allan’s biggest fan. Thank God I will be on the road. Birthday lunch for my dad who turned 79 during the week.”
It’s commendable that you’re so attentive and considerate in regards to your father in his advancing years.
Terrible polling for Biden.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/07/20/biden-weaker-trump-2020-swing-states/
I think the problem with the Territory Senator increase is not so much the ACT, but the NT.
NT only has only got about 250,000 people – and has a history of returning rednecks and/or law and order types. Given the small size of the roll there, it is quite likely in a normal year to get:
2 CLP
1 Lab
1 Random independent or second Lab
A bad year would return 3 RW and 1 progressive.
Conversely, the ACT could almost be guaranteed
2 Lab
1 Liberal
1 Greens or progressive independent.
From a Senate numbers perspective, this does not help either of the parties of government – and indeed may have unfortunate consequences in a bad year
Problem with donation laws is it unfairly hinders the non-labor Parties.
Example 1/ some multinational can donate a lazy few $mil. to a Union instead of giving it straight to Labor, no disclosure there.
#2/ No one with any connection to the building industry can afford to donate non Labor, their business would collapse.
Airbus Albo on holidays .Swiss Air look at me election reject Bill Shorten will I sure fill the gap equally unpopular with the public.
Labor has a union problem.
The NYTimes are continuing their Jihad against Joe Biden.
This lead Opinion piece from Maureen Dowd sums up the tone….
Everyone wants Joe Biden gone.
Even the people who don’t want him gone really want him gone.
“Everyone’s waiting for Joe,” said one top Democrat. “And he’s sitting at home, stewing and saying, ‘What if? What if? What if?’ We’re doing things the Democratic way. We’re botching it.”
I have many happy memories of Rehoboth Beach. I went there growing up and have Proustian recollections of crispy French fries with vinegar sold on the Boardwalk. But now my gladdening images have been replaced by a maddening one: President Biden hunkered down in his house there, recovering from Covid, resisting talking to anyone who will tell him the truth, hoarsely yelling, “Get off my beach!” at the growing list of Democratic lawmakers and donors trying to warn him that he is pulling down his party and the country.
It makes me sad that Biden doesn’t see what’s inescapable: If he doesn’t walk away gracefully right now, he will likely go down as a pariah and ruin his legacy.
The race for the Oval today is between two delusional, selfish, stubborn old guys, and that’s a depressing state of affairs.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/20/opinion/biden-trump-kamala-harris.html
The spending-per-electorate cap seems front and centre targeted at the independents, as opposed to the kind of Clive Palmer shenanigans that have been more controversial in recent times.
It’s a pretty bad look, and Labor should have the sense to cut it because the Liberals will certainly be cheering it. It’ll save them the trouble of having to fight off the teals and other independents based on actually campaigning.
With Joe Biden, I’m reminded of the Dylan Thomas poem..
Do not go gentle into that good night,
Old age should burn and rave at close of day;
Rage, rage against the dying of the light.
Though wise men at their end know dark is right,
Because their words had forked no lightning they
Do not go gentle into that good night.
https://poets.org/poem/do-not-go-gentle-good-night
#weatheronPB
Cloudless beginning,
to the day’s gentle rhythm.
Bright cool perfection.
The ACT Young Nutter Liberals want to restrict abortion rights, provide a tax cut to people who fly the Australian flag and to abolish income tax.
Lee has generally demonstrated a useful capacity to be ACT LOTO. But she is locked in a death struggle with not only the Young Nutters but also the Religious Nutters.
It rather looks right now as if the coming ACT election will once again be devoid of a credible opposition.
‘Rebecca says:
Sunday, July 21, 2024 at 8:09 am
The spending-per-electorate cap seems front and centre targeted at the independents, as opposed to the kind of Clive Palmer shenanigans that have been more controversial in recent times.
It’s a pretty bad look, and Labor should have the sense to cut it because the Liberals will certainly be cheering it. It’ll save them the trouble of having to fight off the teals and other independents based on actually campaigning.’
——————–
It is, of course, targeted at both. The Teals buying seats @ $2 million a pop is profoundly anti-democratic. Palmer trying to buy the Senate BOP with multi million spending, ditto.
The NT & Act would get four senators on Farrell’s proposed reforms but elected for six years so only two, as now, elected each election.
Robbo @ 7.18am
It is true that Tasmania is over represented with Senators, but that is a relic (in our Constitution) from the formation of the Commonwealth of Australia.
It would be an electoral distortion to increase the size of both the Act & Northern Territory Senate representatives.
The Northern Territory is already over-represented in the Parliament.
The two House of Representatives members are only there due to a distortion of the electoral boundaries by an agreement of the ALP & LNP organisations, which usually, splits at one apiece or recently two – zero.
The size of the Northern Territory and the dispersal of electors is the reason for having two Territory seats in the House, rather than an equal distribution of electors.
As for the ACT, until the election of David Pocock, it too was an even 50/50 split between the two major parties.
I can’t foresee that the LNP would consider supporting the doubling of the size of the ACT Senate representation and taking the risk of gaining one Senator at the cost of seeing two ALP and a Non-LNP independent or a Green Senator combining to create a 3 – 1 split.
The Thug and the Bandicoot will delay or block electoral reform.
For sure.
Starmer does not know how lucky he is.
In Australia we have a failed system of governance where the Far Right and the Far Left cuddle each other on a daily basis.
It’s a pretty bad look, and Labor should have the sense to cut it because the Liberals will certainly be cheering it. It’ll save them the trouble of having to fight off the teals and other independents based on actually campaigning.
Labor are always vulnerable to a well funded populist in their safe seats.
See Oxley 1996 for evidence of that, a disendorsed Liberal [Pauline Hanson] won their safest seat in Qld, and that was with no funding.
All a well funded Muslim Party candidate would have to do to win the very safe Labor seats in Sydney and Melbourne is run on Immigration levels being heavily reduced, imo.
Mundo:
Sunday, July 21, 2024 at 7:31 am
[‘Why is ABC tv news taking live feeds of a Trump rally as though it’s some kind of public service.’]
Ditto ABC News Radio. I think there are a few Trumpists who have
infiltrated Aunty.
Adding politicians in the ACT would not be my favourite policy to sell if I was in government
The ACT should be abolished and incorporated into NSW. The parochial excuses for its existence notwithstanding. Given the barriers to the change it won’t happen of course. Similarly the over representation of Tas in the HOR and smaller states in Senate cannot readily be addressed either. The easy way out is to increase the size of HOR, which solves the HOR problem, but makes the Senate problem worse.
Boerwar 8.25am
[It rather looks right now as if the coming ACT election will once again be devoid of a credible opposition.]
[The ACT Young Nutter Liberals want to restrict abortion rights, provide a tax cut to people who fly the Australian flag and to abolish income tax.]
It’s very similar to the older nutter Liberals in the Federal political sphere who’d without the slightest hesitation attempt to adopt these changes and more.
The Federal Liberal party is supported by a no longer fair nor honest sunset media sector, a compromised ABC and a somewhat mischievous Federal Greens party desperately seeking relevance.
The irony being that the ACT Greens behave within the ACT political arena with a suitably Green agenda and a degree of rationality and objective compromise.
The Federal Liberals will either slither to the next election with the nuclear flukey proposals from an inept Dutton or just procrastinate and make the difficult decisions after a failed Federal election campaign.
Australia, thanks to the Liberals has gone all very Trumpian, a craze, very yoyo, and waiting for a one percent moment to successfully compete for a place in the high hurdles.
It remains very disappointing that the Liberals continue to place personal significance ahead of good governance.
Geez if you win and be president you will be dumped.
Trump derangement syndrome and panic has infected the Dems.
Run Biden can swap him later on.He is a winner against Trump.
I thought initially he was too old but another couple of years is not beyond him.
Running a woman against Trump aka Hilary how did that go?
[‘If President Joe Biden decides to withdraw from the election, Democrats need not fear — they have a ticket in front of them that can still defeat presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump.
Not only would a ticket with Kamala Harris as president and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer as her running mate have the best odds of getting the party through this moment of crisis, but also the potential to excite voters and produce a historic outcome. To be sure, there are serious risks. At the same time, this could present an exciting opportunity for Democrats.
This combination would satisfy the axiom put forth by the brilliant Democratic strategist David Axelrod in 2016, when he explained why Trump defeated Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton. While he was referring to open-seat presidential elections, the wisdom still applies: “Voters rarely seek the replica of what they have. They almost always seek the remedy, the candidate who has the personal qualities the public finds lacking in the departing executive.”
Should Biden step aside, a presidential candidate who is Black, Asian American and decades younger may provide the change voters are craving. The two-woman ticket would create a stark contrast with Trump; while the former president would represent more of the same, Harris and Whitmer would offer a fresh vision of what America is all about.’]
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/05/opinions/kamala-harris-gretchen-whitmer-winning-ticket-zelizer/index.html?iid=cnn_buildContentRecirc_end_recirc
Some have said that Whitmer is unknown outside of Michigan but she did receive national prominence when a plot was revealed to
kidnap her. A bonus is that she is the governor of a key battleground state. That said, I think it’s better to have a female/male ticket – eg, Harris & Buttigieg.
_____________________________________
A crowd has assembled in front of the White House calling for
Biden to withdraw.
I have declared an Insiders-free day upon myself this morning. Enjoying it already!
BK
Not missing much – so far CFMEU and Trump/Biden.
A shadow of the balanced analysis on PB 🙂
BK:
Welcome to the club!
I’d go Buttigieg/Harriss myself but I know that wouldn’t work.
Pity, Buttigieg stands head and shoulders above any other dem….
Thanks fore the roundup HH. US and Australian politics both seem in a holding pattern.
Thinking of Sprocket’s poem and Biden, now that I have turned 60 I have no wish to lead a less relevant life, and I do not wish treatment of anyone “old” to be unjust. Yet I do not think it is ageist to call for Biden to step down. It is not his age that is the problem. It is his mental and physical infirmity, which are real.
I hope I can accept aging with good grace, and I can’t say I’m looking forward to feeling old. Yet at some point we all have to let go.
In most western societies the most disadvantaged group is the young, not the old. Biden has competed in eight presidential contests dating back to 1988. He has had plenty of chances. He should step down and give the next generation a chance.
As a poet might say, Joe Biden needs to let go.
E.H. (Erin Hansen)
So I held on, held on, held on,
They said that’s how you know you’re strong,
But not until I wilted
did I notice something wrong.
I thought holding on was bravery,
But when winds of change do blow,
Sometimes it’s even braver still
to let go, let go, let go.
This is not good. Surely someone will take responsibility for this?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2024/07/20/trump-secret-service-security-attempted-assassination/
Rudd being interviewed by Hockey at the RNC the highlight of Insiders so far – and the only one
[‘When Senator Fatima Payman quit Labor on 4 July, as it refused to condemn the Israeli perpetrated genocide in Gaza and also sanctioned her for speaking out against it, the old school white political establishment and media automatically went in to tag team mode at a 5 July presser with the PM.
Payman is Muslim. Reporters quizzed Anthony Albanese about the potential for a grassroots Muslim takeover of western Sydney politics.
And the PM responded, “I don’t… want Australia to go down the road of faith-based political parties, because what that will do is undermine social cohesion.”
Yet on hearing this, those who’ve been paying attention choked on their soup, as the real tangible threat to our secular system is in actuality the ongoing extremist Chrisitan creep into politics, which hit overdrive in late 2017, after the Christian Right bore witness to the passing of marriage equality.
No faith-based politics says Albanese, but he daren’t criticise the Christian Right, as the secular white political establishment is at core Christian. And the dead giveaway is prior to every session of parliament in multicultural, multifaith Australia, the Christian Lord’s Prayer is recited.
And as the Rationalist Society of Australia’s Si Gladman outlined in a recent article, the speaker of the House of Representatives, Labor MP Milton Dick, is soon appearing as a speaker at a Brisbane event bringing together leaders who follow a doctrine seeking to heighten Christian influence over politics.’]
https://www.sydneycriminallawyers.com.au/blog/christian-extremists-continue-attempts-to-infiltrate-australian-politics/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=week-30
Et tu, Speaker Dick.
Bloody hell! How yellow is Zoe Daniel’s jacket?!
Really sprocket_?
I thought the discussion of the CFMEU was balanced and excellent. But, then, I guess I’m not a Labor luvvie.
Biden comes across more as Scranton boy than a Delaware man.
———————————
60 years ago a truck carrying 30000 pounds of bananas lost its brakes coming down a big hill in Scranton PA. The truck was also on fire. Yet the driver didn’t jump out, he stayed in the truck trying to control the descent and warn people through his horn and leaning out the door waving his arm to get out of the way.
The truck eventually crashed, killing the driver and creating the largest amount of flambé mashed bananas recorded.
The driver was a hero.
Biden seems to not realise he has other options, that he started the fire and forgot to tend to the brakes, he isn’t saving anyone by staying behind the wheel and he won’t be remembered so fondly.
Secret service people it was reported were in the building the shooter climbed up on.Shooter was seen by secret service but ignored until shooting started reports say.
Public say they shouted and pointed to gunman but secret service people did not do anything.
Not lack of resources just incompetence and laziness.
Newspoll tonight Fatima and CFMEU if libs do not get bounce a major blow.
Zoe Daniel doing well on the Middle East – Freedom Boy has a mountain to climb in Goldstein
Whereas if he announced he was not running again, endorsed Harris and encouraged others to do so, he will be remembered as someone who put the country and the party ahead of his own personal ambitions and ego.