Newspoll should be along from The Australian this evening if it follows its usual three-weekly pattern, and we’re also about due for a Freshwater Strategy poll overnight from the Financial Review. For the time being, there’s the following electorally relevant news from the past week:
• Former New South Wales Premier Dominic Perrottet announced his resignation from parliament on Friday to take up a position as US head of corporate and external relations for BHP. This will necessitate a by-election for his safe northern Sydney seat of Epping, presumably to be held concurrently with that for former Treasurer Matt Kean’s nearby seat of Hornsby.
• Nine Newspapers reports further numbers from last week’s Resolve Strategic poll showing 41% believe Fatima Payman should relinquish her seat to a new Labor Senator, compared with 29% who support her course of remaining as an independent. However, 54% believe Labor should allow caucus members more freedom to vote in parliament as they wish, with only 16% holding the contrary view.
• It has been widely reported that the government will introduce a package of electoral reform legislation next month, although Michelle Grattan of The Conversation reports it will not include the blockbuster proposal to increase the number of territory Senators, which has failed to find support, and is unlikely to be in place in time for the next election. What will be featured are truth-in-advertising laws on the South Australian model; a reduction of the threshold for public disclosure of donations from the current $16,900 to $1000, together with much stricter time frames for disclosure, reducing to daily at the business end of the campaign period; and a system of spending caps limiting the amount that can be spent on campaigning in any given electorate to $1 million. The latter is most obviously targeted at Clive Palmer, but teal independents have complained of their potential to hinder crowd-funded campaigns against major party incumbents, with Monique Ryan and Allegra Spender’s respective campaign spends in Kooyong and Wentworth at the 2022 election each having exceed $2 million.
Federal preselection news:
• Warren Entsch has confirmed he will not recontest the far north Queensland seat of Leichhardt, which he has held as a Liberal for all but one term since 1996. The Australian reports Labor’s candidate is Matt Smith, former professional basketballer turned Together Union organiser, who was preselected unopposed last week.
• Deloitte director Madonna Jarrett will again be Labor’s candidate for the seat of Brisbane, which Stephen Bates won for the Greens from the Liberal National Party in 2022.
• Jack Dietsch of The West Australian reports that Liberal preselection contests loom for the Labor-held Perth seats of Swan and Hasluck, both of which were won by Labor in 2022, with respective margins of 9.6% AND 10.7% under the proposed new boundaries. The candidates in Swan are Nick Marvin, former chief executive of the Perth Wildcats basketball and Western Force rugby league clubs; Matthew Evans, an army veteran who now works for Mineral Resources; and Mic Fels, a grains farmer. The candidates in Hasluck are Philip Couper, a contracts and procurement consultant and former adviser to state One Nation MLC Colin Ticknell; David Goode, a Gosnells councillor; and Ashutosh Kumar, a credit assessor at Westpac. Pearce, which was gained in 2022 and has a margin of 9.1% on the proposed new boundaries, and Cowan, which Anne Aly has held for Labor since 2016 with a new margin of 9.7%, have each attracted one candidate: respectively, Jan Norberger, who held the state seat of Joondalup from 2013 to 2017, and Felicia Adeniyi, manager at St Luke’s GP Medical.
• Jack Dietsch of The West Australian reports Labor has preselected the top three candidates for its Western Australian Senate ticket: Ellie Whiteaker, the party’s state secretary, who is aligned to the Left faction Australian Manufacturing Workers Union; Varun Ghosh, a Right-aligned former barrister who filled the vacancy created by Pat Dodson’s retirement in February; and Deep Singh, a staffer to Cowan MP Anne Aly aligned with the Left faction United Workers Union. The party’s two members elected in 2019 to terms that will expire in the middle of next year were the aforementioned Pat Dodson and Left-aligned Louise Pratt, who announced in February that she would not seek re-election.
Yes, that is my view. An open primary just brings the chaos, along with the potential of some rando nominee either nobody has heard of, or who is completely unsuitable as a national candidate getting up.
Harris for all the question marks against her is still the Democrat primary voters’ preferred candidate. She’s the VP and next in line for the presidency. She can inherit the Biden-Harris campaign funds (even though she may not need them), already has national campaign infrastructure in place, and gives a really solid contrast with old, white whiny man Donald Trump.
She wouldn’t be my first pick if the Democrats were coming in at this with an open field, but for this moment right now, she is the best and most appropriate for the circumstances. I reckon the Dems should give her a go. Unfortunately I am seeing the open primary case gather momentum. Maybe this would eventually churn out Harris as the nominee and give legitimacy as the candidate. But I just believe the downside risks of this process outweigh the risks of Biden simply passing the baton to Harris and endorsing her.
timbo:
That’s the JD Vance argument: that if you can’t be the nominee you aren’t fit to be the actual president.
It’s nonsense of course because being able to do the job at 81 years old for the next 6 months is a very different calculation than being able to do the job as at 81 years old for the next 4 and a half years.
The Republicans are trying to psyche the Democrats into keeping Biden as the candidate because they really want to run against him.
I’m not making a precise prediction on when/if Biden makes the announcement, just I know if it’s to be successful, it has to be a flawless landing for it to be successful, so if he’s going, then the Democrats have to have the aftermath fully planned out before the convention.
If he doesn’t step down, it’s probably going to be a very gloomy convention, since the Democratic party seems to have made it clear that they won’t tolerate a doddery zombie-ish performance from Biden in the way that Republicans cheer on their bathsalt insane god-emperor Trump, and it seems so far that Biden is not capable of delivering anything more than that.
Randy Rainbow!:
https://x.com/i/status/1814345848685507030
Sometimes I wonder what could possibly happen next. This past week we had a near-assassination and the biggest ever internet crash. What could top that?
The big news this coming week must be Biden stepping aside in favour of anyone else. The defeat of Russia in Ukaraine gets closer day by day and must happen before November. Maybe Putin will resign this week. Or Netanyahu. Could happen.
But my money is on a cosy alliance of words between the CFMEU intransigents and Peter Dutton. They have a common adversary – and adversity makes strange bedfellows. Or maybe that’s happening already.
Harris for all the question marks against her is still the Democrat primary voters’ preferred candidate.
That’s a surprise.
Harris couldn’t win or place in any Primary in 2020 and dropped out early.
The only elections she’s won have been in one party State California.
This looks like a coup. Joe was an unqualified chucklehead when he ran in ’84; ’88; ’08; and 2020, Trump is probably winning anyway, Joe has been okay on foreign policy and he despises Harris.
Why would he quit?
Putin might fall out of a window but I don’t think he’ll resign ever. One way or another, he’ll die in office.
”
Luigi Smithsays:
Sunday, July 21, 2024 at 5:42 pm
Sometimes I wonder what could possibly happen next. This past week we had a near-assassination and the biggest ever internet crash. What could top that?
”
Asked and answered
The ‘greatest bubble in human history’ is close to bursting, black-swan investor Mark Spitznagel says
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-bubble-close-to-bursting-mark-spitznagel-black-swan-2024-7
“A black-swan investor, Mark Spitznagel, says the stock market is heading for a historic sell-off, reiterating an uberbearish warning for investors who are getting comfortable with steady stock gains amid the frenzy over artificial intelligence.
In a recent interview with The Wall Street Journal, Spitznagel said the yearslong rally in the stock market amounted to the “greatest bubble in human history.”
He pointed to similarities with the dot-com bubble, when investors poured money into tech stocks before the frenzy fizzled and the Nasdaq crashed in 2000.
“You don’t feel like a fool for making a bearish argument,” he told the Journal
Steve777 @ #207 Sunday, July 21st, 2024 – 5:49 pm
Yeah, when it comes to Putin, I doubt he’ll willingly leave power and if he does I doubt his successor will let him live long afterwards. He’s gone too far to live long in retirement like Khrushchev and Gorbachev.
Interesting from the Bonham most recent article is that the LNP need over 51% of the TPP to win office next time around.
At the moment the polls seem to be close but a lot of the LNP vote is wrapped up in Queensland and any gains by Labor there will be against the run of play as it were.
As an article in the local Sunday Times mentioned today, the Liberals and the Nationals cannot get their act together at the State level let alone the Federal level. All other things being equal, at this point in time, the Libs and the Nationals are in for another four years in opposition at the State level
At the Federal level, it may well be one or two of the “surprise” Labor seat win seats in 2022 will not be repeated.
So, from the fringe of the WA scene and Queensland…..Libs might pick up a couple of seats in WA, while, Labor at rock bottom in Queensland don’t have a lot to lose.
As many have asked, where will Dutton find the seats he needs?…..Not in SA, not in Tassie, unlikely in Victoria as Dutton it totally despised there so, as usual, it comes to NSW……….
AI is a bubble? Man, I invested in it just as i invested in NFTs, Bitcoins etc… longevity baby.
Also pretty sure the markets well aware of Chinas reduced Iron Ore demands…
Thanks Sandman for the warning re the numbery nature of my article, I’ve put a Wonk Factor warning in now, albeit only a 3/5. 🙂
Amen to that!
https://www.thebulwark.com/p/enough-with-the-biden-psychodrama
”
davosays:
Sunday, July 21, 2024 at 4:03 pm
Dad and kiddy killed on T4 line in Carlton, terrible news, Minns giving eulogy on the guardian now… Expect delays on whole network
”
Doesn’t it appear that father and child came to Australia in last October from India to die?
Confessionssays:
Sunday, July 21, 2024 at 4:39 pm
When Biden will stand down
C@tmomma – after mass on Sunday US time
Confessions – Monday morning US time
Mostly Interested – Monday night, prime time TV, US time
Nadia88 – < July 31
Mundo – he won’t
bc – when Netanyahu leaves Washington
Sandman- he wont.
Freshwater stratwgy2PP
LNP:51
ALP:49
Primary
LNP40
ALP:31
Grens::13
Greens is taking ALP along with them.
And Lars,to your dismay, ALP primary is still in 30s
Kevin Bonhamsays:
Sunday, July 21, 2024 at 5:56 pm
Thanks Sandman for the warning re the numbery nature of my article, I’ve put a Wonk Factor warning in now, albeit only a 3/5.
No worries Mr B. Your work is always balanced and makes sense, even better. LOL.
Farage & Truss fly back to UK with no selfies with the Donald.
Kamala Harris campaign ad from 2020. It could do with an update, but it still seems to work.
https://twitter.com/AdamJSmithGA/status/1814723038564192535
‘Kirsdarke says:
Sunday, July 21, 2024 at 5:39 pm
I’m not making a precise prediction on when/if Biden makes the announcement, just I know if it’s to be successful, it has to be a flawless landing for it to be successful, so if he’s going, then the Democrats have to have the aftermath fully planned out before the convention.
…’
——————–
I am sort of hoping that the real reason for the delay is to ensure the next steps are nailed down first.
An interesting discussion on gig employment in China … and the US:
https://www.scmp.com/economy/economic-indicators/article/3269601/chinas-gig-workers-becoming-new-normal-inevitable-trend-comes-burden?campaign=3269601_518b17fc-473b-11ef-b6d2-522fdf36e912&module=perpetual_scroll_1_RM&pgtype=article
Great work Ven. I knew we may have a “double event” tonight. Could smell it.
Anyway, I don’t have AFR access, could you dig up the full primaries please.
Sprocket or WB – I think you have AFR access. Full primaries pls, polling period & sample if possible.
Ut OH, the IDF sent a few bomber jets over Yemen today- this is going to get messy if other countries get on the IDF hit parade. Ughh.
KB – if you’re still on the site. Freshwater analysis please.
LNP steady, looks like Labor down 1. Greens steady.
July 19 – July 21 nadia88.
Albo also -14 net sat in Freshwater. Dutton -3 net sat
‘Sandman says:
Sunday, July 21, 2024 at 6:32 pm
Ut OH, the IDF sent a few bomber jets over Yemen today- this is going to get messy if other countries get on the IDF hit parade. Ughh.’
———————–
The Houthis fired a missile which hit Tel Aviv the other day, murdering an innocent civilian in the process.
“While elections have been won by leaders rated this poorly in the past, such as (former Victorian premier) Dan Andrews, there is clearly a concern about Albanese that is gradually and consistently getting worse among the electorate,” Dr Turner said.
Labor’s poll numbers have been flat since December and party sources say it is a product of grievance politics, which is afflicting incumbents in Australia and abroad.
The poll shows pessimism is rife; 56 per cent believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, as opposed to 29 per cent who believe otherwise. This is the poll’s lowest level of optimism since the election.
Uncle Phil does the business says libs may be able to form minority gov if labor keeps going the way it’s going.
Entree let’s hope!
QLD isn’t going to help the federal Lib/nats
Up until now it seemed like a Labor dominated minority government which would be workable.
If Labor polling declines further its looking more like a short term hung parliament with fresh elections within 12 months of the election date.
Will be interesting to see if Newspoll aligns with other polls – which suggests 49-51 as well or whether it becomes the outlier.
Cant not see the federal lib/nats getting above 55 seats
Forget about world events, assassinations, Ukraine and the Middle East. Nadia needs her polls. KB, WB, Ven and Sprocket. C’mon, get to work. Drop everything.
Sorry , like your enthusiasm and commentary by the way Nadia88. You are an interesting and thorough poster on this site! Just having fun.
Lars Von Tier
Going to be disappointed if Labor primary vote is 34% in newspoll
Scott = son of Meguire Bob.
Lars Von Trier
Im going with my head
My head telling me labor primary 34% – Lib/Nats combined primary vote 36%
gut feeling Labor 35% – Lib/nat combined primary 35%
Pied pipersays:
Sunday, July 21, 2024 at 6:40 pm
Uncle Phil does the business says libs may be able to form minority gov if labor keeps going the way it’s going.
Entree let’s hope!
———-
OMG thats funny. With 4 Greens and a bunch of Teals in play Dutton couldnt form minority government even in their own delusional heads – get the Coalition to 52-48 2PP and come back to me and explain why the Coalition PV will be more evenly spread electorate to electorate than last time. Labor is no doubt slipping away on PV but is that slippage going to the Coalition ? I would think not in most seats.
I don’t see any major change. Freshwater primaries have remained within a 2% margin since the referendum. Newspoll may be more interesting.
Edit: 2% looking at bludger track data. Still stable.
Lars Von Triersays:
Sunday, July 21, 2024 at 6:36 pm
July 19 – July 21 nadia88.
Albo also -14 net sat in Freshwater. Dutton -3 net sat
==============================================
Thanks Lars. Interesting, they actually delayed a week. I thought this may be an old poll because of the Trump incident. OK. Well 40% LNP. This is winning territory for the LNP. Clearly the nuclear announcement, the Paris backflip and the S3 tax cuts are having no negative impact on the LNP primary. ALP primary continues to trend down, so to be fair/honest, the S3 revision has had minimal impact. I think it must be the Sen Payman issue and the subsequent division which has ensued (ie division is death) That Senator has/is causing quite a bit of damage to Labor. CFMEU issue – more a Victorian issue, but will be interesting to see the Federal numbers out of Victoria if they become available.
Couple more hours for Newspoll.
2022 was a good one to lose.
Josh, Scotty, Porter, Timbo, Zimmerman, Falinski, all gone, never to be seen again plus you only get one Anthony Albanese in a political lifetime.
I’m hoping for a 32 and going to the election with Albo.
The notion that Labor would automatically be forced to run the country with House and Senate BOPs is not a gimme.
While only a tradition, what happens if the Liberals gain more seats than Labor in the House? With the governance wreckage being inflicted by the Thug and the Bandicoot, this is far from impossible.
The generally accepted starting point is that the Party with the most seats gets first crack at forming a government.
The Greens have previously stated they were prepared to work for the Liberals. The Teals are progressive in social policy areas but seem to be conservative when it comes to taxation, IR policy and economic settings.
Then again, Labor might decide that the best thing for the future of Australia is for voters to get a taste of Dutton running the country with the aid of the Cooties and the Teals – particularly if the Senate BOP is controlled by the extreme Right.
Enjoy!
nadia88 says:
Sunday, July 21, 2024 at 7:04 pm
Lars Von Triersays:
Sunday, July 21, 2024 at 6:36 pm
July 19 – July 21 nadia88.
Albo also -14 net sat in Freshwater. Dutton -3 net sat
==============================================
Thanks Lars. Interesting, they actually delayed a week. I thought this may be an old poll because of the Trump incident. OK. Well 40% LNP. This is winning territory for the LNP. Clearly the nuclear announcement, the Paris backflip and the S3 tax cuts are having no negative impact on the LNP primary. ALP primary continues to trend down, so to be fair/honest, the S3 revision has had minimal impact. I think it must be the Sen Payman issue and the subsequent division which has ensued (ie division is death) That Senator has/is causing quite a bit of damage to Labor. CFMEU issue – more a Victorian issue, but will be interesting to see the Federal numbers out of Victoria if they become available.
Couple more hours for Newspoll.
__________
Agreed on the Payman situation. Was cued for maximum impact and did the business.
My view is that people are hurting financially.
I see signs of it all the time.
If there is no real shift in the COL between now and May 2025 the Thug will be our next prime minister.
Sando:
Labor is no doubt slipping away on PV but is that slippage going to the Coalition ? I would think not in most seats.
Tend to agree.
The Greens play the role that the old Socialist Left used to.
But, are these swinging voters or just swinging Leftists?
That’s the question.
If the swingers are still hanging tough with Albo, once the swing is on, doesn’t matter if the Greens are on 18% nationwide, Labor are toast.
Freshwater..
At 40% primary vote the LNP is competitive.
Freshwater on issues…
Scottsays:
Sunday, July 21, 2024 at 6:43 pm
QLD isn’t going to help the federal Lib/nats
=================================
Scott – correct. We don’t know the full sample and spread around the country as yet, but a strong LNP vote in QLD will only serve to bolster the current LNP member’s margins. As you, and we all know, it’s seats, not margins, which count & it’s western Sydney & WA which really count, though I am starting to focus attention on Victoria a bit. I note that Mr Albanese was in QLD at a primary school in the division of Lilley on Friday, so perhaps the internal polling in QLD is showing big problems for Labor. (note Lilley is held by Labor with a 10% margin, so is a safe-ish seat, so one begs the Q, what is he doing there hanging around a primary school. Is he concerned that Lilley may be in play perhaps).
Footnote – Lilley used to be Mr Swans old seat.
Yeh that is deff not a good poll for Labor… ooft
Nadia88.
Might advise not getting too hung up on transitory opinion polls.
You sound as though you are a bit of a poll driven junkie…Good for you, but I suspect you have been round long enough to see one party (in the past, Labor) leading 52-48 into an election campaign and lose.
The movie “Don’s Party” says it all.
Back in the day, 1969 was it? Labour was all set to win. They did not. Disappointed (bloody annoyed) Labour voters, had to wait until under hopeless McMahon fell into a heap until 1972.
Doesn’t matter now, but if Labo(u)r had won in 1969, things come `1972 might have been a lot different.
At this point, a Dutton victory come 2025 would really surprise me – regardless of current opinion polls.
The US and its allies have limited their Yemen strikes to targets very closely related to Houthi missile attacks on neutral merchant shipping: weapons dumps, weapons transports, missile firing command and control centres, and radar installations.
The Israelis have instead targeted low-hanging high value economic targets: oil storage depots. I don’t know whether they also targeted Houthi leaders.
This time.