Newspoll should be along from The Australian this evening if it follows its usual three-weekly pattern, and we’re also about due for a Freshwater Strategy poll overnight from the Financial Review. For the time being, there’s the following electorally relevant news from the past week:
• Former New South Wales Premier Dominic Perrottet announced his resignation from parliament on Friday to take up a position as US head of corporate and external relations for BHP. This will necessitate a by-election for his safe northern Sydney seat of Epping, presumably to be held concurrently with that for former Treasurer Matt Kean’s nearby seat of Hornsby.
• Nine Newspapers reports further numbers from last week’s Resolve Strategic poll showing 41% believe Fatima Payman should relinquish her seat to a new Labor Senator, compared with 29% who support her course of remaining as an independent. However, 54% believe Labor should allow caucus members more freedom to vote in parliament as they wish, with only 16% holding the contrary view.
• It has been widely reported that the government will introduce a package of electoral reform legislation next month, although Michelle Grattan of The Conversation reports it will not include the blockbuster proposal to increase the number of territory Senators, which has failed to find support, and is unlikely to be in place in time for the next election. What will be featured are truth-in-advertising laws on the South Australian model; a reduction of the threshold for public disclosure of donations from the current $16,900 to $1000, together with much stricter time frames for disclosure, reducing to daily at the business end of the campaign period; and a system of spending caps limiting the amount that can be spent on campaigning in any given electorate to $1 million. The latter is most obviously targeted at Clive Palmer, but teal independents have complained of their potential to hinder crowd-funded campaigns against major party incumbents, with Monique Ryan and Allegra Spender’s respective campaign spends in Kooyong and Wentworth at the 2022 election each having exceed $2 million.
Federal preselection news:
• Warren Entsch has confirmed he will not recontest the far north Queensland seat of Leichhardt, which he has held as a Liberal for all but one term since 1996. The Australian reports Labor’s candidate is Matt Smith, former professional basketballer turned Together Union organiser, who was preselected unopposed last week.
• Deloitte director Madonna Jarrett will again be Labor’s candidate for the seat of Brisbane, which Stephen Bates won for the Greens from the Liberal National Party in 2022.
• Jack Dietsch of The West Australian reports that Liberal preselection contests loom for the Labor-held Perth seats of Swan and Hasluck, both of which were won by Labor in 2022, with respective margins of 9.6% AND 10.7% under the proposed new boundaries. The candidates in Swan are Nick Marvin, former chief executive of the Perth Wildcats basketball and Western Force rugby league clubs; Matthew Evans, an army veteran who now works for Mineral Resources; and Mic Fels, a grains farmer. The candidates in Hasluck are Philip Couper, a contracts and procurement consultant and former adviser to state One Nation MLC Colin Ticknell; David Goode, a Gosnells councillor; and Ashutosh Kumar, a credit assessor at Westpac. Pearce, which was gained in 2022 and has a margin of 9.1% on the proposed new boundaries, and Cowan, which Anne Aly has held for Labor since 2016 with a new margin of 9.7%, have each attracted one candidate: respectively, Jan Norberger, who held the state seat of Joondalup from 2013 to 2017, and Felicia Adeniyi, manager at St Luke’s GP Medical.
• Jack Dietsch of The West Australian reports Labor has preselected the top three candidates for its Western Australian Senate ticket: Ellie Whiteaker, the party’s state secretary, who is aligned to the Left faction Australian Manufacturing Workers Union; Varun Ghosh, a Right-aligned former barrister who filled the vacancy created by Pat Dodson’s retirement in February; and Deep Singh, a staffer to Cowan MP Anne Aly aligned with the Left faction United Workers Union. The party’s two members elected in 2019 to terms that will expire in the middle of next year were the aforementioned Pat Dodson and Left-aligned Louise Pratt, who announced in February that she would not seek re-election.
Kevin Bonham is a good read for election seat analysis if you want detail of what happened in 2022. He debunks a couple of popular myths. Make sure your wide awake if you read it though- it’s complexity is a challenge us ordinary stat’s buffs.
Sheila Jackson Lee dies, David Letterman to headline Biden Fundraiser.
https://www.breitbart.com/news/longtime-us-rep-sheila-jackson-lee-of-texas-who-had-pancreatic-cancer-has-died/
Joe ain’t done yet!
The under 40s aren’t skewing anywhere near the glow-in-the-dark nuclear waste dump near you party within a barge poll anytime in many decades 😆
Let’s see. Rebecca’s preferred vision statement:
$2 million a seat by 150 seats.
$300 million gets you 150 Teals in the House.
A bit expensive for what you pay because not a single Teal of brings whole of government detailed policies costings and budgets.
Sure. They slag Labor. So they stitch up the Guardian. But then so does Thug and the Bandicoot. Same old same old same old. And they get the rest of the MSM.
How do you cost that in terms of election donations? The Oz runs at a loss of around $15 million a year: $45 million for an electoral cycle.
Democrat nominee:
Harris is $1.94
Biden $3.30
Hilary $11
Others $24.00++
Boerwar says:
Sunday, July 21, 2024 at 3:22 pm
Let’s see. Rebecca’s preferred vision statement:
$2 million a seat by 150 seats.
$300 million gets you 150 Teals in the House.
A bit expensive for what you pay because not a single Teal of brings whole of government detailed policies costings and budgets.
Sure. They slag Labor. So they stitch up the Guardian. But then so does Thug and the Bandicoot. Same old same old same old. And they get the rest of the MSM.
How do you cost that in terms of election donations? The Oz runs at a loss of around $15 million a year: $45 million for an electoral cycle.
__________
One only needs a simple majority. But why restrict to the Teals? And why just $2 million a seat? I shall just leave this article by Grattan Institute authors here for Rebecca:
https://theconversation.com/big-money-was-spent-on-the-2022-election-but-the-party-with-the-deepest-pockets-didnt-win-198780
Pied pipersays:
Sunday, July 21, 2024 at 2:20 pm
………..
Newspoll will the tax cuts Oasis rescue labor tonight ?
Or will Fatima and the CFMEU bury labor!
=======================================
A bet each way Pied?
One safe prediction Pied is that if the LNP primary is up & ALP down, we’ll see you here at about 9.32pm. If the reverse occurs, we won’t see you here tonight.
Lions! Great game 🙂
Griff: Sheesh, that’s another twice that you’ve frantically tried to change the subject rather than defend the indefensible. “If you can’t defend a party policy, just grab something else entirely that you can defend and pretend you think they’re talking about that” is a bit of a lame approach to political discussion.
Boerwar: Again, you prefer Liberal MPs to independent MPs. We know.
C’mon, this is Trump level stuff, Boerwar.
Dad and kiddy killed on T4 line in Carlton, terrible news, Minns giving eulogy on the guardian now… Expect delays on whole network 🙁
We all know BW prefers a 2 party system at all costs…
https://www.pollbludger.net/2024/07/21/weekend-miscellany-nsw-by-elections-fatima-payman-polling-electoral-reform-preselections-open-thread/comment-page-4/#comment-4331851
… I’d like to hear how the fed gov will stop the decline in their PV (Ditch the likes of Albo and W(r)ong would be a great start, bring up the Treasurer, and yes I understand he’s from QLD, and Husic …, given the UN ICJ found illegal settlements are just that, …). So far the opp appears to be up (BludgerTrack on 2.PP has gov down about 1.6%, since the 2022 fed election).
Anyway, conflating progressive Greens and conservative Teals seems interesting (in a delusional manner), no shit.
In TAS we saw shit lite run away after the election, rather than try an alliance. Anyway, this weekend even the Tasmanian RSL has come out against the current approach to a stadium, though full of shit is now in minority state gov.
Can’t wait for the next polls.
The tips so far.
When Biden will stand down:
C@tmomma – after mass on Sunday US time
Confessions – Monday morning US time
Mostly Interested – Monday night, prime time TV, US time
Nadia88 – < July 31
Lions! Great game
——————-
Bugger off.
Swans have lost 4 games – by a sum total of 10 points. 5, 1, 2, 2.
The 2 party system has been corrupted by the fossil fuel cartel, the big 4 consultancies and the US Defence industry.
Voters need to intervene and break it up.
When Biden will stand down:
———————–
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pHZneOidj9A
Biden prediction: He won’t.
TK
Close games that your team wins are always great games 🙂
Rebecca says:
Sunday, July 21, 2024 at 3:56 pm
Griff: Sheesh, that’s another twice that you’ve frantically tried to change the subject rather than defend the indefensible. “If you can’t defend a party policy, just grab something else entirely that you can defend and pretend you think they’re talking about that” is a bit of a lame approach to political discussion.
Boerwar: Again, you prefer Liberal MPs to independent MPs. We know.
__________
What am I changing the subject to? You keep asserting this without support. Are you projecting?
Perhaps you might read the article Rebecca. As I said before, I would prefer to see no private donations. I happen to personally believe the legislation doesn’t go far enough. I am not the one being partisan here. Are you alright with Palmer’s millions spent in 2022? Are you alright with what the Labor and LNP spend? Are you alright with how elections are done in America? What would you prefer to see? Do you want to keep the status quo? Or do you want to see something else?
Do try to be constructive 😉
Swans have butchered a few close games.
At least we are not Essendon
‘Rebecca says:
Sunday, July 21, 2024 at 3:56 pm
…..
Boerwar: Again, you prefer Liberal MPs to independent MPs. We know.’
———————-
Repeating your same old, same old twaddle does not improve it.
An individual spending $2 million to win a seat is good for democracy?
I call bullshit.
You don’t have to worry. The Thug and the Bandicoot will delay or block completely this reform.
Here is the outcome of the Bandicoots rooting around with the Thug:
Coalition plus 1.4%. Phon +2.2%. Greens .6%.
Dutton is laughing his arse off while thanking the Bandicoot!
Mundo @ #167 Sunday, July 21st, 2024 – 4:20 pm
I think he has to now. It’s just a matter of how the transition to the new nominee happens.
Socrates says Sunday, July 21, 2024 at 2:04 pm
I have never seen the sense in boycotting an election. Perhaps someone can convince me otherwise.
Confessions says Sunday, July 21, 2024 at 4:14 pm
After Netanyahu leaves Washington.
Deep down I know it, Confessions.
Mundo’s false bravura.
I recently did a bit of bus/train tourism to Sydney.
One of the educational safety signs in Central Station reminded people to park their prams parallel to the railway lines and to put the pram brakes on.
Sunday 28 July PM Washington time.
When Biden will stand down
C@tmomma – after mass on Sunday US time
Confessions – Monday morning US time
Mostly Interested – Monday night, prime time TV, US time
Nadia88 – < July 31
Mundo – he won’t
bc – when Netanyahu leaves Washington
bc:
To be clear, this is when Biden will stand down as the Democrats’ presidential nominee.
It is perfectly reasonable for him to see out the remainder of his term as POTUS.
Confessions says Sunday, July 21, 2024 at 4:39 pm
Yes. I do not expect that he will resign as President.
Interestingly Kamala Harris headlined an event today with Pete Buttigieg.
Lordbain @ #162 Sunday, July 21st, 2024 – 4:07 pm
No, he wants a 1 party system.
Who needs the US Secret Service when Providence will stitch up your enemies?
https://x.com/satpaper/status/1814894700953809378, centrist, tentative, focus group driven, all unreal diversity, benevolent racism, affirmative action … i/c xRRT
Under the current arrangements I give Australia a max of 4 years before the Thug initiates another decade of Coalition rule.
Enjoy!
Bloody hell.
I just read the latest guesses on the number of dwellings in China that are empty: 65-80 million.
Those with an interest in serious budget management, which self-evidently excludes the Greens, the Teals, the Liberals and the Nationals might well be concerned that China’s demand for iron ore might just contract sharply.
Norf trying hard to give the Silver Spoons a fright.
I saw a comment by the one of the ABC’s journalists on Friday that Biden had basically been implementing Trump’s China policy, but more effectively.
Polling is showing Joe competitive with Trump, so why would he quit now?
Harris, from wiki:
In 2006, as part of an initiative to reduce the city’s skyrocketing homicide rate, Harris led a city-wide effort to combat truancy for at-risk elementary school youth in San Francisco.Declaring chronic truancy a matter of public safety and pointing out that the majority of prison inmates and homicide victims are dropouts or habitual truants,
Harris’s office met with thousands of parents at high-risk schools and sent out letters warning all families of the legal consequences of truancy at the beginning of the fall semester, adding she would prosecute the parents of chronically truant elementary students; penalties included a $2,500 fine and up to a year in jail. The program was controversial when introduced.
I’ll bet.
This woman is a fanatic, no way could she be elected if the system is legit.
I would guess Biden will stand down as nominee in 4 or 5 days time. The Dems seem to doing all they can to avoid setting a deadline for him to make a decision. He will most probably remain president for the rest of this term but will have a lot of help from others. There seems to be widespread support for Kamala Harris to be the nominee.
Boerwar says Sunday, July 21, 2024 at 4:50 pm
We could do with some of those here 🙂
For those with a Yuan for command and control economies. Just forget about 80 million empty houses! One solution in the command and control economy is to order provincial governments to buy distressed properties and to turn them into social housing and make them available at cheap rent rates. (Let’s cap rents!) The problem? The provincial governments are in huge financial distress.
Although this article focuses on the salaries of top three execs, average pay for all lower ranking China’s bank workers is being cut by 10%.
Middle order banks with distressed balance sheets are being absorbed by large banks including the Agriculture Bank. But the Ag Bank has triggered discussion about its solvency. There are around 3,000 smaller rural banks which are rumoured to be in greater or lesser degrees of solvency distress.
https://www.reuters.com/breakingviews/chinas-banker-pay-crackdown-risks-pyrrhic-victory-2024-07-08/
Badthinker: The national polls mean nothing. It is the swing states that count and Biden is well behind in 7 of the 8 he won in 2020.
Fess,
per bc – Netanyahu visits Washington on Weds 24-Jul, so I suppose Thurs morning our time. bc – what’s your reasoning pls, or is it more that they don’t won’t to welcome an overseas leader to the U.S. when the U.S. is undergoing a leadership issue. (ie: embarrasing for Netanyahu)
Lars has mentioned 28-Jul; Lars, your reasoning pls for this date?
I just think a new team needs to be in place, otherwise we will end up with endless headlines of Dem Chaos. Once the running mate is sorted, then yes Biden goes.
I can’t imagine anyone in the Democratic Party wants a slug-fest to develop at their convention, so I believe it needs to be sorted before, preferably soon, and with Pres Bidens endorsement.
He’s been visited by Pelosi, Schumer and now Obama (despite Biden’s supposed COVID), so the end draws near. These are three of the most senior Democrats. I think the COVID thing is to allow Mr Biden some thinking time before he withdraws his candidacy.
Fess, thanks for your measured & objective posts on this issue the past 2 weeks too.
nadia88 says Sunday, July 21, 2024 at 5:06 pm
It’s no great analysis by me, I’m just following the suggestion of this article: https://www.watoday.com.au/world/north-america/biden-fumes-at-his-beach-house-resentful-at-obama-and-those-trying-to-drive-him-out-20240720-p5jv62.html
Nadia88 -28 July it’s Sunday night prime time in the US. Allows for transitional issues to be sorted by then and a national tv address – Biden can outline his legacy, reasons for dropping out and outlining what comes next.
Assuming he’s remaining president he also needs to signal he remains in charge and continuity of govt continues.
nadia88:
I personally don’t think Netanyahu’s address to congress should matter much to the Democrats choosing their presidential nominee. Biden is currently the President, and will remain so even if he announces he won’t be seeking re-election, and will therefore still be President when Netanyahu speaks to congress.
I have added Lars to the tip sheet.
Pete Buttigieg on Trump’s VP pick JD Vance:
https://youtu.be/guV7cRF6AEE?si=GHJU_VIYTS2fg2SM
Assuming Biden does stand down as the nominee, he’ll need a good excuse.
Not being fit for another 4 years of presidency won’t be enough. He’ll be considered in some people’s eyes as just not being up to a fight with Trump. That won’t do.
I think he’ll need to stand down as current president for health reasons and hand over to his VP.
It will be a better look for him and the Dems – and the US is all about looks rather than substance.