I’m advised that the proposed federal redistribution for Western Australia will be published early afternoon eastern time in Friday, and that EMRS will publish its first quarterly Tasmanian poll since the election at around midday today. Other than that, two items of polling news, one somewhat encouraging for Labor and another rather a lot less so.
The first of these is a multi-level regression with post-stratification (MRP) poll by Accent Research and RedBridge Group, an exercise that aims for a detailed election projection by surveying a large national sample of 4040 and using demographic modelling to project results for each electorate, and which it plans to conduct on a roughly quarterly basis. A similar exercise was conducted before the last election by YouGov which involved Shaun Ratcliff, who is now the principal of Accent Research. It performed reasonably in predicting 80 seats for Labor and 63 for the Coalition, compared with an actual result of 77 and 58. But it underestimated the scale of the gains by teal independents and the Greens, which maintained a record of the method doing better with major parties than minor parties and independents. The YouGov exercise also had a substantially larger sample of 18,923, which presumably allowed its demographically modelling to be more finely grained.
With that all taken on board, the seat projection has Labor on 73 and the Coalition on 53 with another nine too close to call, meaning a 50-50 result after rounding to whole numbers, including seven that are lineball between Labor and the Coalition. These are Labor-held Gilmore, Lingiari, Lyons and Robertson, together with their by-election gain of Aston, and Coalition-held Deakin and Moore (the latter of which points to a rather rosy reading of Labor’s situation in Western Australia).
Curtin is rated lineball between teal independent incumbent Kate Chaney and the Liberals, with Brisbane likewise between Greens incumbent Stephen Bates and the LNP, though the primary vote estimates appear to suggest Labor the more likely winner than the Greens (here I would repeat that warning about the method’s record in reading minor party and independent support). Only three seats are identified as changing hands: Cowper, where teal independent Caz Heise is tipped to succeed on the second attempt at unseating the Nationals by 52-48; Fowler, where Labor is credited with a 54-46 lead over independent member Dai Le; and Liberal-held Menzies, where Labor is credited with a 51-49 lead.
The exercise also works as a conventional opinion poll with the rate treat of breakdowns for each state and territory. Labor is credited with a 52-48 lead nationally, from primary votes of Labor 32%, Coalition 36% and Greens 13%. This represents very modest change on the 2022 result, which is also the case in each state and territory, including notably in Western Australia. All of the details, including the estimated results for each of the electorates (keeping in mind that these are set to be redrawn in three states and one territory), are available in the full report.
The less happy news for Labor comes from the weekly Roy Morgan poll, which is their worst result in this series for the term, putting the Coalition ahead 51.5-48.5 on two-party preferred, compared with a 50.5-49.5 Labor lead last time. The primary votes are Labor 28.5% (down two), Coalition 37% (steady), Greens 15% (up half) and One Nation 6% (up half). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1715.
New UK polls:
LAB: 40% (-1)
CON: 28% (+2)
RFM: 12% (-1)
LDM: 10% (-1)
GRN: 5% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)
Via @JLPartnersPolls
24-25 May
_______________________________________________________
LAB: 47% (-1)
CON: 24% (-3)
LDM: 11% (+3)
RFM: 8% (=)
GRN: 3% (+1)
SNP: 3% (=)
Via @Survation
24-27 May
________________________________________________________
2024 GENERAL ELECTION MEGA POLL!
12,000 Sample.
Labour 46% (+1)
Conservative 23% (–)
Reform UK 13% (+1)
Lib Dem 9% (-1)
Green 5% (–)
SNP 3% (+1)
Other 3% (+2)
Changes +/- 19 May
via Redfield&Wilton
https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-25-27-may-2024/
______________________________________________________
Scottish Westminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 36% (+3)
SNP: 32% (-6)
CON: 17% (+2)
LDM: 9% (+1)
Via @Survation
23-27 May
**Edit to add:
The poll from JL with the gap at only 12 points has got the Tory papers giddy
Election Maps UK
@ElectionMapsUK
There has been no significant polling movement since Sunak called the election:
LAB: -0.1% to 44.1%
CON: -0.1% to 23.3%
RFM: +0.3% to 11.3%
LDM: +0.1% to 9.6%
GRN: -0.5% to 5.9%
SNP: +0.1% to 2.9%
I got the homeless guys car going this morning before work.
Also gave him a little transistor radio I had lying around, runs on a couple of AA’s and $20 for petrol.
He is not here now. Must have gone for a drive to charge the battery.
US inflation went up again, according to the latest figures from the US, Liar Von Trier. Also, you may want to look at Turkiye’s inflation, for a comparison against our own for example, before you trot out your lines next time about ours. It’s not the only example, of course. But simplistic one-liners like yours never take the fine detail into account in their pursuit of a snarky attempted take-down. Just like how the cause behind the insurance increases is Climate Change, which your muckas in the Liberal Party want to do less than zero about, fiddling while the world burns.
An interest rate rise could be catastrophic for Labor.
Entropy,
I am a global vigilante, with the emphasis on vigilance! 🙂
I have been using the free WiFi (thank you, CSIRO), wherever I have been staying, so all is well at this end.
Actually, the reason I have been posting more today is because my son and his friend went for a day trip to the westernmost part of the US, if you don’t count Alaska and Hawaii, and it involved a lot of walking, which was beyond my capabilities. So I stayed in the cabin.
Such a pity that Lars von Trier has to try and find a way to use my incapacity against me.
Also, I have been told that people are interested in my reports from America. Tough luck if he isn’t.
I’m learning a lot arguing against you C@tmomma – namely that the reason people are capable of holding onto societally destructive beliefs such as yours is that they pick and choose the evidence or lack thereof to suit them. Wilfully ignoring or discrediting hard evidence to suit whatever narrative they have going on.
I’ll respond to your previous comment which does exactly this when I can be bothered.
C@tmomma,
Please continue the travelogue.
C@tmommasays:
Wednesday, May 29, 2024 at 1:34 pm
Entropy,
I am a global vigilante, with the emphasis on vigilance!
I have been using the free WiFi (thank you, CSIRO), wherever I have been staying, so all is well at this end.
========================================================
Good to hear you are probably spending less on internet costs then you would be if back in Australia. Sounds like you have it all sorted out.
Lars keeps suggesting i post less too without me being on any holiday. So that line is more about not liking the political perspective you are posting from than being on a holiday or not i suspect. It is pretty typical of some right wing peoples belief in the freedom of speech though. Which generally involves full protection of their freedom of speech while doing everything to limit everyone else’s.
Good to see FUBAR is not pushing Lars’ line here though.
You know what Jake Sullivan said about Israel Rafah invasion at WH Press conference?
“We don’t see Israeli forces smashing Rafah.”
Hence, they didn’t cross the red line Biden imposed.
So Biden doesn’t consider the bombing of refugee camp in Rafah, where women and children were killed, as big deal.
“”What we have seen so far in terms of Israel’s military operations in that area has been more targeted and limited, has not involved major military operations into the heart of dense urban areas,” Sullivan told reporters at the White House.”
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/us-national-security-advisor-says-israel-provided-rafah-invasion-plan-refinements/3227625#
“In response to questions about how the US would judge Israel’s invasion of Rafah, which President Joe Biden has threatened to withhold US military assistance if there is a large-scale offensive, Sullivan said, “There’s no mathematical formula.”
“What we’re going to be looking at is whether there is a lot of death and destruction from this operation, or if it is more precise and proportional. And we will see that unfold. And we will obviously remain closely engaged with the Israeli government as we go. That’s how we see the situation right now,” he said.
In the post-WW2 period, poor management at the Hanford site, kept secret by the Govt, saw terrible radioactive pollution of the Columbia River, the surrounding area and later downstream.
We have an abundance of cheap clean renewable energy sources.
Nuclear and fossil fuels are economy and environment killers.
Socrates,
Looking into access to Navbase Kitsap, I don’t qualify for a Vistors Pass. Too much secret squirrel stuff going on that they don’t want the Average Joe off the street to see, it seems.
Its going to be the same questions from the federal lib/nats , time for a change in the federal Liberal party leadership
Entropy,
I think FUBAR likes calling us idiots too much to try and shoo us off the blog. 😀
In just over a month the Tax cuts kick in tens of billions for low income earners who will spend it boosting inflation and leading most likely to increased interest rates.
I have seen reports overnight that the Israeli strike in the Rafah area killed two senior Hamas commanders and that this was over a kilometer away from where the fire occurred. Where the fire occurred, there were lots of secondary explosions leading to claims of there being an ammunition dump. I watched the video and there were definitely lots of secondary explosions in the fire, but I suspect that they were probably gas bottles for cooking. When ammo explodes it’s not just a fireball type explosion but normally lots of projectiles firing off all over the place – which there wasn’t in the video.
Current spot price in Victoria is -$46.65 MWh
C@tmomma says:
Wednesday, May 29, 2024 at 2:02 pm
I don’t like it. I do it when I am either pissed off or angry or both.
Please tell me we do not pay wind and solar to not produce.
That was because the technology was new and the rush to develop the technology as part of the Cold War push.
Using it as an example to stop a new build reactor is ridiculous.
Steadily cleaning up the Morrison/Dutton mess..
Albanese:
The Government continues to refuse and cancel visas on character grounds. Section 501 has not changed and I make this point; since coming to government we are deported over 4200 individuals from immigration detention, in our first year of government the number of individuals we deported from immigration detention was almost double the number the previous government deported the year prior, the AAT made a decision independently of government to overturn visa cancellations.
As the minister has said he will be reviewing the recent AAT decisions
Parliament yesterday passed legislation abolishing the AAT and replacing it with a new administrative review tribunal. The only effective way of ensuring the tribunal members are making better decisions is to issue a new revised direction which the Minister will be doing. The new directive will ensure that the protection the committee outweighs any other consideration.
Dutton has the twin albatrosses around his neck of:
– failed Home Affairs minister
– failed Defence minister
Somewhat blunts his QT attacks
Fubar
“You’re wrong. Google “Bechtel refuels Nuclear Submarines”. You will see that just that one company is involved in all parts of the defence and civilian nuclear industry.”
—————————————————–
My mistake. I had forgotten about Bechtel. They can design almost anything, including civilian and naval nuclear reactor components. However (and I should have made this clearer) they do not BUILD the reactors, only design. BWXT is still the only firm that actually makes USN reactors.
—————————————————–
“Nuclear Submarine Officers do Nuclear Engineering degrees.”
Yes I am aware of that. USN engineers often leave for higher money in the civilian sector.
However doing the degree does not give you knowledge of the individual specialised technologies.
USN sub officers then do several years of further training and on-sub learning. A civilian nuclear reactor could not just walk onto a USN sub and take over.
—————————————————-
FUBAR
“Australia should have our own nuclear weapons.”
—————————————————-
I really hope somebody from the LNP says that between now and election day.
Moratorium.
“…but I suspect that they were probably gas bottles for cooking. ”
You wouldn’t have to suspect anything if journalists weren’t getting targeted by strikes or banned from entering
FUBAR says:
Wednesday, May 29, 2024 at 2:12 pm
Please tell me we do not pay wind and solar to not produce.
They keep on producing and rack up the credits – a magic pudding
Genuine conservatives who enjoy the great outdoors and cheaper energy from clean renewable sources wouldn’t have a bar of the radically extreme nuclear and fossil fuel agenda of Dutton.
Has the moratorium been lifted? Hope not…
Sprocket
You forgot to mention Health Minister.
Failed Home Affairs minister asks about MD99
Answer/;
Time after time get questions from those opposite, one remains unanswered. The Leader of the Opposition is still yet to tell us why he, here, not a court or a tribunal, he released a detainee from detention who went on to allegedly commit a violent crime. When will he answer that question?
The Government continues to refuse and cancel visas on character grounds. I continue to cancel AAT set-asides, section 501 has not changed. The Albanese government has always said that visa decisions need to be guided by two clear principles.
Firstly the protection of the Australian community.
Secondly, common sense.
I’d have thought the Govt would’ve announced today the ceasing of weapons components being sent to Netanyahu …?
Socrates says:
Wednesday, May 29, 2024 at 2:24 pm
Once China invaded Taiwan I believe that there will be sufficient bipartisan support for Australia to develop its own nuclear weapons.
The cunning plot of a string of Liberal Attorneys General stacking the AAT with fellow travellers is coming to fruition, with the overturning of visa cancellations on character grounds.
Reminds me of Dotard stacking the Supreme Court with his shills so that in future years they will rule favourably towards his alleged criminality.
A significantly armed light mobile force of autonomous air, sea and land capability that is prioritised to defend Australia should be our strategy. Less aggression, more neutrality.
Dutton losing it in QT
Tony Burke also has a point of order about the interjections during Ryan’s point of order:
Particularly when members of the crossbench raise points of order, there is a level of aggression and shouting led by the Leader of the Opposition that is quite different to what I just got [when raising a point of order].
…The level of direct anger and aggression from the Leader of the Opposition is just out of control, every time there is a point of order from the cross bench. They have a right to raise these points of order.
Seems to get most het up when the Teals are talking
Post up on the Tasmanian EMRS poll:
https://www.pollbludger.net/2024/05/29/emrs-liberal-35-labor-28-greens-15-in-tasmania/
Is Dutton in ‘boofhead’ mode today …?
Another Labor PV in the 20’s…
Only today?
FUBAR says:
Wednesday, May 29, 2024 at 12:58 pm
We should build a massive particle accelerator in a massive tunnel around Canberra – powered by a nuclear power station. How good would that be for ANU and other Australian Universities?
____________________
Why not just repurpose the tunnel from Snowy 2.0
Cat
“Looking into access to Navbase Kitsap, I don’t qualify for a Vistors Pass. Too much secret squirrel stuff going on that they don’t want the Average Joe off the street to see, it seems.”
Sorry. In that case you could just drive by on the opposite shore from Bremerton, and still get an excellent view of all the ships and subs tied up at the base.
Dr Fumbles Mcstupid says:
Wednesday, May 29, 2024 at 2:52 pm
I did consider that but they like circles.
The same questions from the federal lib/nats have backfired again on them Dutton seems to have realise the mistake , he is waving goodbye to the chamber , Dutton must be getting ready for a federal liberal party leadership challenger sooner than later
“Regional property owners joining transition to renewable energy with solar farm land leases”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-05-29/leasing-land-for-solar-farming-transition-to-renewable-energy/103829734
Nice comment from UWA alma mater:
If Anthony Albanese won’t do his job and sack his wildly incompetent Immigration Minister then his party should find a new prime minister who will.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13469705/PVO-Albanese-Giles-immigration-rapists-Australia.html
Andrew Giles changed immigration laws so that violent criminals including child rapists could stay in Australia if they have close ties to the community.
When the change of policy blew up in his face, Giles started playing the blame game: It’s the Home Affairs Department’s fault, the Administrative Appeals Tribunal’s (AAT) fault.
It is anyone’s fault but his apparently.
Before Labor changed the law, criminals were deported. Now they claim community and family ties and get to stay. And not for stealing a loaf of bread, just to be clear.
Sprocket reckons Albo is “tidying this (immigration issue) up nicely”
Get off the weed.
Peter Dutton is not good news for the federal Lib/nats and propaganda media units on immigration and home affairs
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/higher-tolerance-for-rapists-fighting-deportation-but-zero-tolerance-for-facts-20240529-p5jhid.html
When Dutton was home affairs minister, for instance, the tribunal decided that an Iranian heroin dealer and ice manufacturer, known as YKZZ, should be allowed to stay. The tribunal cited Direction 79 and the “higher level of tolerance” as an important reason. Was this decision in September 2019 a sackable offence for the minister at the time?
”
sprocket_says:
Wednesday, May 29, 2024 at 2:26 pm
Has the moratorium been lifted? Hope not…
”
It was applicable only for yesterday unless things changed today.
You old softie you…
WTF ??
https://twitter.com/DavidShoebridge/status/1795680350905249799