I’m advised that the proposed federal redistribution for Western Australia will be published early afternoon eastern time in Friday, and that EMRS will publish its first quarterly Tasmanian poll since the election at around midday today. Other than that, two items of polling news, one somewhat encouraging for Labor and another rather a lot less so.
The first of these is a multi-level regression with post-stratification (MRP) poll by Accent Research and RedBridge Group, an exercise that aims for a detailed election projection by surveying a large national sample of 4040 and using demographic modelling to project results for each electorate, and which it plans to conduct on a roughly quarterly basis. A similar exercise was conducted before the last election by YouGov which involved Shaun Ratcliff, who is now the principal of Accent Research. It performed reasonably in predicting 80 seats for Labor and 63 for the Coalition, compared with an actual result of 77 and 58. But it underestimated the scale of the gains by teal independents and the Greens, which maintained a record of the method doing better with major parties than minor parties and independents. The YouGov exercise also had a substantially larger sample of 18,923, which presumably allowed its demographically modelling to be more finely grained.
With that all taken on board, the seat projection has Labor on 73 and the Coalition on 53 with another nine too close to call, meaning a 50-50 result after rounding to whole numbers, including seven that are lineball between Labor and the Coalition. These are Labor-held Gilmore, Lingiari, Lyons and Robertson, together with their by-election gain of Aston, and Coalition-held Deakin and Moore (the latter of which points to a rather rosy reading of Labor’s situation in Western Australia).
Curtin is rated lineball between teal independent incumbent Kate Chaney and the Liberals, with Brisbane likewise between Greens incumbent Stephen Bates and the LNP, though the primary vote estimates appear to suggest Labor the more likely winner than the Greens (here I would repeat that warning about the method’s record in reading minor party and independent support). Only three seats are identified as changing hands: Cowper, where teal independent Caz Heise is tipped to succeed on the second attempt at unseating the Nationals by 52-48; Fowler, where Labor is credited with a 54-46 lead over independent member Dai Le; and Liberal-held Menzies, where Labor is credited with a 51-49 lead.
The exercise also works as a conventional opinion poll with the rate treat of breakdowns for each state and territory. Labor is credited with a 52-48 lead nationally, from primary votes of Labor 32%, Coalition 36% and Greens 13%. This represents very modest change on the 2022 result, which is also the case in each state and territory, including notably in Western Australia. All of the details, including the estimated results for each of the electorates (keeping in mind that these are set to be redrawn in three states and one territory), are available in the full report.
The less happy news for Labor comes from the weekly Roy Morgan poll, which is their worst result in this series for the term, putting the Coalition ahead 51.5-48.5 on two-party preferred, compared with a 50.5-49.5 Labor lead last time. The primary votes are Labor 28.5% (down two), Coalition 37% (steady), Greens 15% (up half) and One Nation 6% (up half). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1715.
Re: the Independent Australia article
Cal be pretty much summarised by: “Neoliberalism” = anything I don’t like
I’m not sure which part of the 70s we are supposed to idolised, the rapidly rising unemployment and inflation? Consumers paying exorbitant prices for basic goods and services?
And in the 50s/60s? Economic oppression of women? That fun period when Australia was the colonial masters of PNG? A little thing called the Vietnam war?
Look, if you are an old bloke who pines for an era where a woman couldn’t threaten your job and we were forced to buy your shit white goods and cars, that’s on you.
I’d think I’d rather have a slightly more modern government that prioritises inclusion and innovation.
Bizzcan @ #106 Wednesday, May 29th, 2024 – 11:08 am
And neoliberalism.
Entropy @ #99 Wednesday, May 29th, 2024 – 10:55 am
Thank you. Having worked for CSIRO for over 15 years in two different sites I was well aware of the mix of skills in most research teams.
The libraries were well stocked and we were generally very quick to pick up on anything new and relevant.
Badthinker is being just that
The Revenge Presidency
https://therickwilson.substack.com/p/the-revenge-presidency?r=1ne2d&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&triedRedirect=true
FUBAR
“Malinauskas is absolutely correct. We need to be building a nuclear industry to support AUKUS. That includes all phases of the nuclear cycle. That’s why we need an “expensive” nuclear power industry.”
——————————————–
I doubt Malinauskas said that. He isn’t that stupid. Why develop a nuclear fuel cycle if we are buying nuclear subs that don’t need refueling??
=——————————————-
“In the US the same people that build and run the domestic nuclear power industry also operate the nuclear refueling of the subs and aircraft carriers, as well as the major research labs in the US. It is a an integrated national effort and always has been.”
——————————————-
False. FUBAR do you have any background in this sort of engineering? I suspect not. That is OK. It is aparent that neither do most of the politicians, journalists and even naval officers who speak on it.
In USA the SSN nuclear propulsion and civilian nuclear power industries are almost entirely separate. Different companies, technology and fuels.
One (naval reactors) uses HEU fuel cores, the other (civilian reactors) uses LEU fuel cores. The sole company that makes naval reactors is BWX Technology in Ohio. The main companies that make civilian reactors are General Electric and Westinghouse.
In UK the same company (Rolls Royce) makes naval and civilian nuclear reactors. But the catch is that the USA still supplies UK with the HEU (highly enriched uranium, i.e. weapons grade uranium). The UK can’t enrich uranium to make HEU. (Hence all UK nuclear weapons are made from US supplied HEU). The only two countries in NATO that have a full nuclear fuel cycle sufficient to refuel US and UK SSNs are USA and France.
For Australia to have a full nuclear fuel cycle capable of fully supporting and refueling US or UK SSN reactors, we would need to learn how to enrich uranium to HEU (weapons grade). That is against current law. Many other nations would rightly object to the nuclear proliferation risk.
This is one of the many reasons why the “sovereignty” arguments raised by Dutton against getting French SSNs were a pack of lies. We will in fact have much less sovereignty with UK SSNs. SSN AUKUS subs will always be dependent on both UK and US technical support.
For maximum sovereignty we should be building either only US Virginias (if they let us) or only French Suffrens (if our navy admits they didn’t know what they were doing). The Suffren SSN is the only option we could fully support ourselves without having to deal with weapons grade uranium in Australia. So of course we didn’t pick it.
”
C@tmommasays:
Wednesday, May 29, 2024 at 5:13 am
I always thought that FUBAR was too smart to fall down the Nutter Truckers rabbit hole. Apparently not.
”
Hoffman hollers and heckles against anyone who disagrees Hoffman.
Yeah! Watch out for the black helicopters because they’re the ones that’ll hover over your roof and they’ll kick your door in and drag you away. Apparently.
You fucking idiot. That’s a stupid thing to write.
Do you say stupid things like that at work? Do people laugh at you?
‘People raped children’: Nat Barr erupts
Sunrise’s Nat Barr has lambasted a key government minister live on air over a controversial decision that allowed several rapists on visas to stay in Australia.
Premier fails to guarantee public housing promise as wait list soars
The Allan government has been accused of letting down vulnerable Victorians as new figures show a decrease in the total number of available public housing bedrooms.
Phillip Seymour Hoffman,
Do you not realise how easy it is to pick apart your arguments, such as they are?
1. A fallacious apples and oranges argument. You’re talking numbers a quarter of a century ago in a pathetic effort to try and debunk 2024/25 numbers. So try comparing apples with apples. What was the population in 2000 and how does that 100000 compare with 250000 for a population now of almost 27 million? Considering also the fact that Australia, in the interim, has built up a large tertiary education system for foreign students who only migrate here temporarily, thus distorting any numbers quoted. Especially by you.
2. Got your crystal ball out for this one. You are absolutely certain Labor won’t meet their new target? Lol. You should get your head out of your… social media feed and keep up with reality. 250 ‘Vocational Training Colleges’ have already closed as a result of Labor’s changes and some private universities’ foundations are looking decidedly shaky. Not to mention the hue and cry from the sector’s mouthpieces about the effect that the changes will have. But yeah, some barely-disguised Liberal/Sustainable Australia Party/UAP/PHON-adjacent zealot with an agenda on a blog is right.
😆 😆 😆
Your arguments are as weak as water, Phillip Seymour Hoffman. We know that. You seem to be the only one who can’t see it, well actually who doesn’t want to and just wants to keep pumping out the misinformation and disinformation, in a similar way to the disinformation that propelled the ‘No’ campaign. Funny that. Seeing as how immigration is now Dutton’s latest campaign iteration.
UK and miscellaneous cartoons
Checkout #PensionerBrigades on Twitter for some background info
Matt
Morten Morland
Martin Rowson
stephff cartoonist (only professional cartoonists will understand this one)
Jonsey (#AngelaRayner really got in his head, didn’t she? What a waste of #GreaterManchesterPolice time, #JamesDaly #politicalcartoon #caricature)
Chaz Hutton
Stephan Pastis
Guy Venables
deAn
Some general commentary
From Cathy Wilcox
Natalie Barr, shill for the Liberals and her boss Kerry Stokes, attacks a Labor government Minister. Did she not mention that a similar thing happened when the Coalition were in power? Of course not.
And this is new news? 🙄
Back on SSNs, what we need to do is learn how to maintain them. That is intended under AUKUS phase One, which is a bit I do agree with. It involves training hundreds of people on the technology, then letting them practice on maintaining US and UK SSNs based in Perth.
With SSN maintenance planned for Perth (logical) and SSN construction “promised” in ASC Adelaide, the problem will be in Adelaide. Until actual SSN construction starts in ASC, there will be no jobs in Adelaide for people who learn nuclear engineering skills. That might be ten years away.
We will never be building the SSN reactors, reactor compartments or fuel cores in Adelaide (or anywhere else) unless we both change Australian law and are happy to process uranium to weapons grade in Australia. Good luck getting that through parliament.
Hence Peter Malinauskas is in for some unpleasant news over coming years.
Is that Judith Sloan’s, I’m sewious! face? 😆
Thanks, Socrates, for the heads up on the Nuclear Subs base. I’ll see if I can get my son’s American friend who is driving us around to take me there. 🙂
We will never be building the SSN reactors, reactor compartments or fuel cores in Adelaide (or anywhere else) unless we both change Australian law and are happy to process uranium to weapons grade in Australia. Good luck getting that through parliament.
Labor’s only objection is cost. Once that is explained to them, what’s stopping bipartisan Legislation on weapons grade processing?
C@t are you actually enjoying ur time in America or r u spending all ur holiday time attacking pollbludger posters ?
A sad but important statement from the daughter of double-murderer Mark Bombara (who killed two women in Floreat, Perth, last week)
And a related article on the ABC
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-05-29/ariel-bombara-delivers-unambiguous-message-about-floreat-murders/103903650
“There needs to be a massive systemic change made to protect women to ensure that this never happens again,”
said.
“Authorities should have helped us to stop him and they failed.”
She and her mother had repeatedly warned police about her father’s disturbing behaviour, about his collection of guns and the fact that one – a Glock handgun — was missing.
……
While she didn’t want to be drawn on the details, she outlined how she and her mother had fled the family home in late March in fear of their lives.
In fear of her father, whose gun collection amounted to 13 firearms, and who lived with the family in the affluent riverside suburb of Mosman Park.
Having escaped, the Bombara women spoke with police three times in the following week, Ms Bombara said.
They wanted a temporary family violence restraining order, but police said no, she said.
………….
But Ms Bombara’s story also speaks to a fundamental societal problem in need of a fresh solution.
Federal MP Kate Chaney, who holds the seat of Curtin where the murders took place, put it succinctly.
“We definitely need a situation where women are taken seriously when they have a reasonable fear of violence,” she said.
“We see it again and again, that the system as a whole is not delivering.”
Arial Bombara also wants the fundamentals to change, not just the reform of gun laws.
“Men will kill regardless of what weapon they use.
“If they want to, they will find a way.”
Cat
I have technical reservations about the delivery feasibility of the AUKUS pathway requiring us to develop skills with both US and UK SSN technology. I think that will prove a sub too far.
However to be clear, I still think the US Virginia SSNs are superb quality, and if we get them and can learn how to use and maintain them would serve Australian security very well. So see them if you can.
My concern is that, putting aside any debates about France, if we are going to get 3 to 5 Virginias, we might be better off integrating with the US sub supply chain rather than the British, buying six Virginia SSNs, whilst contributing components to the US sub construction industry to help it speed up.
You should also see US aircraft carriers at Bremerton, which are enormous.
Weren’t the sub nuclear cores going to be pre-inserted into the shell before they came to Australia?
Abs Today Houses built going backwards under incompetent labor.
Mar qtr 24 ($m) Dec qtr 23 to
Mar qtr 24 (%) Mar qtr 23 to
Mar qtr 24 (%)
Building 33,315.1 -3.7 -2.0
Residential 19,581.4 -1.2 -2.8
Non-residential 13,733.7 -7.0 -0.9
Engineering 30,717.4 -2.1 6.2
Total construction 64,032.5 -2.9 1.8
Reference year for Chain Volume Measures is 2021-22.
Inflation going up under incompetent federal labor also.
Michelle Marquardt, ABS head of prices statistics, said: “Annual inflation increased to 3.6 per cent this month, up from 3.5 per cent in March. Inflation has been relatively stable over the past five months, although this is the second month in a row where annual inflation has had a small increase.”
The most significant contributor to the April annual rise was Housing (+4.9 per cent).
Badthinker
“Labor’s only objection is cost. Once that is explained to them, what’s stopping bipartisan Legislation on weapons grade processing?”
————————————————–
No it isn’t just cost. The more countries that learn how to make HEU, the more countries can make nuclear bombs. That is a fundamental threat to the nuclear non-proliferation treaty and efforts to limit the spread of nuclear weapons (which we helped found!!). World bodies have been trying to reduce the number of countries that do this for decades.
https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/Nuclear-Fuel-Cycle/Conversion-Enrichment-and-Fabrication/Uranium-Enrichment
Cat
“Weren’t the sub nuclear cores going to be pre-inserted into the shell before they came to Australia?”
Sort of. Modern SSNs are made in modular sections. Australia is not technically equipped to make the SSN module that contains the reactor, but we could make the rest of the modules and connect it together here with some skills training.
In practice what I expect is that the sub module containing the nuclear reactor (the reactor “compartment”) including the hull shell around it would be made by the home country of that sub design (UK or USA) and shipped here as a “sealed unit”. We would then make the rest of the modules and assemble it together.
Learning how to do this with two separate designs, with two separate supply chains for all the components, would be extraordinarily complex. Hence I think if we are definitely going to get Virginia SSNs (which are very good) we should stick to that with what we build here as well. I.e. stick to one class of sub.
Inflation staying above Reserve Bank guidance will mean that interest rates will stay where they are.
(Trying to paste some image links)
This is an example of a US SSN sub hull module being transported to a final assembly area. This is how an SSN reactor module could be sent to ASC.
This is a Virginia module being built, with the module contents being slid into the relevant hull section.
ASC itself used modular construction to build the Collins Class (we know how to do this).
Socrates,
I can see your logic about the Virginia Class subs, however, there needs to be some degree of UK in AUKUS, especially with regards to the new build on the drawing board. Also, I want to see what Keir Starmer (fingers crossed) and his new Defence Minister bring to the table after the UK Independence Day election. Independence from the Tories, that is. 🙂
Thanks for posting that at 11:44 D and M.
The State Government have laws in the Parliament now that will go some way towards making gun ownership more difficult. The Nationals with the backing of the Libs are doing all they can do to delay the laws passing.
Insurance and rent sending people into homelessness
Yes, Socrates, that’s pretty much what I had in mind. Would the sealed unit come by ship or massive cargo plane?
Cat
The fact is, the UK hasn’t “given” us anything under AUKUS. They are desperate for our money.
The initial deal Boris promised to station a UK sub our here for our learning. But it hasn’t happened.
The Royal Navy is desperately short of subs. They are struggling in construction and maintenance
https://www.navylookout.com/rn-attack-submarines-is-there-a-crisis/
I doubt Kier can turn this around. as with housing in Australia, it is due to ten years of udnerinefstment. They don;;t have the resources.
Rex Douglas,
How wealthy ARE you!?! Poor people, generally the Renters in Australia, cannot afford Insurance for the most part. Not the expensive sort anyway. Basic, or none at all.
I agree with Victoria about Medicare. You need to book in advance to see a doctor , but what if you’re sick overnight ? With the expense ( with no bulk billing), many sick people will just manage on their own. I’ve never seen it so bad. I hate to think what the bulk billing rates and the costs ( no bulk billing) will be in five years … people won’t attend gps when they have issues, and perhaps those issues get a lot worse by the time they’re dealt with.
pied piper
Ignoring inflation(7.2%+) was high under the former federal Lib/nats government
Today’s inflation figures more proof that Labor hasnt got control of inflation.
US and UK inflation coming down.
This is homegrown and the blame rests with Albo and Chalmers.
Remember the adults are in charge now apparently.
Why not develop the ability to build our own reactors and reduce our reliance on the US and UK?
You’re wrong. Google “Bechtel refuels Nuclear Submarines”. You will see that just that one company is involved in all parts of the defence and civilian nuclear industry.
Nuclear Submarine Officers do Nuclear Engineering degrees.
Your logic is confused – I don’t agree that we lose any sovereignty due to the source of the fuel/reactors. We would increase our strategic independence by developing the capability to produce our own fuel and reactors.
Scott.
Are you referring to 2022? During Covid?
Lars Von Trier
Knows as soon as there is a interest rate cut rise before the end of this year, Angus Taylor will hold a leadership spill against Peter Dutton
sealion says:
Wednesday, May 29, 2024 at 12:40 pm
Scott.
Are you referring to 2022? During Covid
—————-
yes covid had partly to do with it but Inflation was rising before
Lars Von Trier says:
Wednesday, May 29, 2024 at 12:39 pm
Today’s inflation figures more proof that Labor hasnt got control of inflation.
US and UK inflation coming down.
This is homegrown and the blame rests with Albo and Chalmers.
Remember the adults are in charge now apparently.
________
Cannot see the external drivers of inflation.
Use of Abbott’s tag line.
Thanks for the comedy during lunch 🙂
Socrates says:
Wednesday, May 29, 2024 at 11:50 am
Australia should have our own nuclear weapons.
Griff sees the light. There is hope still for slow learners.
Lars Von Triersays:
Wednesday, May 29, 2024 at 11:44 am
C@t are you actually enjoying ur time in America or r u spending all ur holiday time attacking pollbludger posters ?
======================================================
Are you suggesting if you were on holidays you wouldn’t be still attacking people on pollbludger?. I guess that’s the difference between being a paid staffer and a political hobbyist.
I’m suggesting it’s sad that c@t is in America and still posts multiple times on PB.
Lars Von Trier says:
Wednesday, May 29, 2024 at 12:51 pm
Griff sees the light. There is hope still for slow learners.
_________
Even slow learners like me work you out pretty fast 😉
We should build a massive particle accelerator in a massive tunnel around Canberra – powered by a nuclear power station. How good would that be for ANU and other Australian Universities?
Thanks griff I do try and write for a simple audience circa age 12. Good to know ur understanding.
Now having seen the Judith Sloan piece it is even worse than I thought in terms of substance. Nothing more than a polemic with a few totally unsupported factoids and an incredible amount of hyperbolic rhetoric. It is designed to appeal to the stupid and uncritical, and looking at the posters on this site who think it is credible, it seems to have hit the mark square on.
Lars Von Triersays:
Wednesday, May 29, 2024 at 12:54 pm
I’m suggesting it’s sad that c@t is in America and still posts multiple times on PB.
===============================================
The internet may appear to be magic for those that don’t understand how technology works. Maybe you should get the CSIRO to explain it to you?. Though you could just do a Judith Sloan and be happy with your own ignorance.
It actually doesn’t take anymore time out of your day to post on here from Australia or USA. Though one should be careful about the roaming charges. If you haven’t set it up to use a USA sim card or some other system that makes sure you are not on a very high charging plan while there.
Editor-in-chief of news.com.au among casualties in News Corp Australia restructure
https://www.theguardian.com/media/article/2024/may/29/news-corp-australia-restructure-newspaper-jobs
Philip Ruddock was the gold standard of Immigration Ministers.
Whenever confronted with a tricky one, Giles just needs to take 5 and ask himself.
“What would Ruddock have done in this situation”.
I critiqued Judith’s capacity factor numbers last night, though I hadn’t noticed her comment about lifetime: 25 year is “far too long” for wind/solar? What decade is this from?
30-35 years is now the norm in financial models. Even the older sites can go through extension of life measures