Polls: Accent Research-RedBridge Group MRP and Roy Morgan (open thread)

An ambitious endeavour to project an election result seat-by-seat suggests Labor will more likely than not maintain its majority, but the weekly Roy Morgan poll has other ideas.

I’m advised that the proposed federal redistribution for Western Australia will be published early afternoon eastern time in Friday, and that EMRS will publish its first quarterly Tasmanian poll since the election at around midday today. Other than that, two items of polling news, one somewhat encouraging for Labor and another rather a lot less so.

The first of these is a multi-level regression with post-stratification (MRP) poll by Accent Research and RedBridge Group, an exercise that aims for a detailed election projection by surveying a large national sample of 4040 and using demographic modelling to project results for each electorate, and which it plans to conduct on a roughly quarterly basis. A similar exercise was conducted before the last election by YouGov which involved Shaun Ratcliff, who is now the principal of Accent Research. It performed reasonably in predicting 80 seats for Labor and 63 for the Coalition, compared with an actual result of 77 and 58. But it underestimated the scale of the gains by teal independents and the Greens, which maintained a record of the method doing better with major parties than minor parties and independents. The YouGov exercise also had a substantially larger sample of 18,923, which presumably allowed its demographically modelling to be more finely grained.

With that all taken on board, the seat projection has Labor on 73 and the Coalition on 53 with another nine too close to call, meaning a 50-50 result after rounding to whole numbers, including seven that are lineball between Labor and the Coalition. These are Labor-held Gilmore, Lingiari, Lyons and Robertson, together with their by-election gain of Aston, and Coalition-held Deakin and Moore (the latter of which points to a rather rosy reading of Labor’s situation in Western Australia).

Curtin is rated lineball between teal independent incumbent Kate Chaney and the Liberals, with Brisbane likewise between Greens incumbent Stephen Bates and the LNP, though the primary vote estimates appear to suggest Labor the more likely winner than the Greens (here I would repeat that warning about the method’s record in reading minor party and independent support). Only three seats are identified as changing hands: Cowper, where teal independent Caz Heise is tipped to succeed on the second attempt at unseating the Nationals by 52-48; Fowler, where Labor is credited with a 54-46 lead over independent member Dai Le; and Liberal-held Menzies, where Labor is credited with a 51-49 lead.

The exercise also works as a conventional opinion poll with the rate treat of breakdowns for each state and territory. Labor is credited with a 52-48 lead nationally, from primary votes of Labor 32%, Coalition 36% and Greens 13%. This represents very modest change on the 2022 result, which is also the case in each state and territory, including notably in Western Australia. All of the details, including the estimated results for each of the electorates (keeping in mind that these are set to be redrawn in three states and one territory), are available in the full report.

The less happy news for Labor comes from the weekly Roy Morgan poll, which is their worst result in this series for the term, putting the Coalition ahead 51.5-48.5 on two-party preferred, compared with a 50.5-49.5 Labor lead last time. The primary votes are Labor 28.5% (down two), Coalition 37% (steady), Greens 15% (up half) and One Nation 6% (up half). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1715.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,248 comments on “Polls: Accent Research-RedBridge Group MRP and Roy Morgan (open thread)”

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  1. Andrew Giles’ problems are not of his own making. They are the fault of his Department Secretary not properly informing him. Something the vultures circling him here refuse to acknowledge. Doesn’t suit their narrative.

    Anyway, I have my suspicions about promoting to Secretary someone who is a relic of the Dutton/Pezzulo regime.

  2. Here you go C@tmomma – stick this in your ‘racist dog whistle’:

    New polling from Resolve Political Monitor shows that two-thirds of Australians believe that last financial year’s net overseas migration (NOM) numbers of 528,000 were “too high”.

    Exactly half also believe that the federal government’s projected NOM cuts to 260,000 in 2024-25 are “too high”:

    Immigration polling
    Voters have also lost trust in Labor on immigration, with 60% believing the government has handled migration in an “unplanned and unmanaged way” and only 20% believing immigration was being run in a “carefully planned and managed way”:

    Government handling of immigration
    “Immigration is becoming a growing issue”, said Resolve director Jim Reed. “This isn’t a product of who is coming here or why, but the sheer quantum”.

    Almost every Australian knows somebody who has been adversely impacted by the rental crisis, which has been driven by Labor’s record immigration.

    Remember also that Labor promised to run a lower immigration program before the last federal election only to then double-cross voters and ramp immigration to record highs.

    https://archive.md/qY2cP

  3. Over 2 months ago , federal lib/nats and their propaganda media units claimed the nuclear thought bubble would be released immediately – No details was released , so the lib/nats media units used the boat people/immigration as a look away from the broken promise

    1 week ago , federal lib/nats and their propaganda media units claimed the nuclear thought bubble would be released immediately – No details was released , so the lib/nats media units used the boat people/immigration as a look away from the broken promise

  4. C@tmommasays:
    Wednesday, May 29, 2024 at 9:19 am
    Andrew Giles’ problems are not of his own making. They are the fault of his Department Secretary not properly informing him. Something the vultures circling him here refuse to acknowledge. Doesn’t suit their narrative.
    ——–

    Nothing is ever Labor’s fault, is it? Always someone else to blame…

  5. Trump honors Memorial Day by throwing a tantrum all weekend

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/5/28/2243175/-Trump-honors-Memorial-Day-by-throwing-a-tantrum-all-weekend?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_8&pm_medium=web

    “Across the U.S., millions of people took advantage of the long weekend to chow down on burgers and mark the unofficial start of summer with visits to pools, lakes, and beaches. Millions more honored the true purpose of Memorial Day by laying flowers on the graves of fallen veterans.

    “Trump kicked off his weekend by getting utterly humiliated by Libertarians.

    In what might be one of the most poorly thought-out political appearances of the century, Trump dropped in on the Libertarian National Convention on Saturday to tell them that they should just give up nominating their own candidates and put him at the head of their ticket.

    “What’s the purpose of the Libertarian Party of getting 3 percent?” Trump said as the crowd booed and heckled him. “You should nominate Trump for president only if you want to win.”

    Back at Trump Central, someone had the brilliant idea that Trump should drop in to explain why his authoritarian strong-man rule would be perfect for Libertarians. Fox News certainly thought it was a great idea.

    The ridiculousness of this idea was clear even before Trump stepped on stage.”

    “But almost every word Trump said generated a flood of derision. People on the floor of the convention shouted “liar” and “you crushed our rights.” Following his appearance, one attendee told Politico, “He’s more delusional than I thought.”

  6. Rex Douglas says:
    Wednesday, May 29, 2024 at 9:41 am
    The L/NP’s utter neglect in xxxx. their 10 yrs in Govt has caused great social damage across Australia.

    Why restrict it to only housing

  7. The radical extremists peddling nuclear in order to prolong fossil fuels are in effect destroying the economy and Australia’s great outdoors.

    Genuine conservatives wouldn’t have a bar of it.

  8. Two Standout Moments in the Closing Arguments

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/5/28/2243297/-Two-Standout-Moments-in-the-Closing-Arguments?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web

    “But I have hopes that the case is already won just from two points that stood out for me.

    First is the unforced error Trump’s lawyer Todd Blanche committed just before lunch.

    Judge calls defense attorney’s comment on sending Trump to prison “outrageous”

    Judge Juan Merchan said he’d give a curative instruction as to defense attorney Todd Blanche’s remarks about sending Trump to prison.

    During his closing arguments, Blanche talked about Cohen’s credibility and told the jury: “Then he came in here, he raised his right hand and he lied to each of you repeatedly. You cannot send someone to prison you cannot convict somebody based upon the words of Michael Cohen.”

    (Merchan also told Blanche his words were “outrageous,” but that was out of the jury’s hearing.)

    Juries take lots of cues from the judge; he’s the ultimate authority in the courtroom and he is expected to be fair. (Looking at you, Aileen Cannon.) They’ve already had several experiences of Merchan’s having to correct Trump’s lawyers, and especially the dressing down (though they were not present for most of it) of the one substantive witness Trump’s side put on.

    [Merchan] gave a curative instruction to the jury, explaining that Blanche’s comment was “improper” and that if Trump is convicted, “a prison sentence is not required.”He gave a curative instruction to the jury, explaining that Blanche’s comment was “improper” and that if Trump is convicted, “a prison sentence is not required.” ca.news.yahoo.com/…”

    “Second: The prosecutor, Steinglass, made an argument that made even Trump’s children sit up and take notice:

    Prosecutor Joshua Steinglass argued in summations late Tuesday afternoon that it was “no coincidence” that the Stormy Daniels payoff did not happen until a decade after the alleged sexual encounter in 2006. Steinglass argued that that fact disproves any defense suggestion that the Daniels payment was related to sparing his family. The hush money deal was reached in October 2016, two weeks before Election Day, “because the defendant’s primary concern was not his family, but the election.” http://www.washingtonpost.com/…

  9. In order to service immigration and a growing population you need to invest in sustainable infrastructure.

    The L/NP has a track record of neglecting that.

    Relying on them to fix that is very dumb thinking. Dutton is not the answer.

  10. I’ve been reading about SpaceX and their Starlink Sats since I saw the conga line of them this morning following the latest launch. Jeepers. Thats a lot of satellites, and he expects them to have short lifespans so they drop regularly and replaced regularly with newer tech.

    Phenomenal is one word for it.

    Can terrestrial comms compete? If they cant, and it is all left to Starlink – that makes Musk one hell of an oligarch.

  11. I knew it and that’s why I asked you to put it in black and white, Phillip Seymour Hoffman.

    To quote directly from you:
    ‘ New polling from Reserve Political Monitor shows that two thirds of Australians believe that LAST FINANCIAL YEAR’S Net Overseas Migration (NOM) numbers of 528000 were “too high” ‘

    To which I will only add the bit you ALWAYS leave out. The government have slashed the numbers for THIS FINANCIAL YEAR in half.

    That should make you happy, Phillip Seymour Hoffman, if you were really serious about this issue. But you’re not. Not really. I get that.

  12. Rex:
    The L/NP’s utter neglect of housing during their 10 yrs in Govt has caused great social damage across Australia.
    8 years 8 months 13 days actually.
    No, don’t thank me …

  13. This is a good read …

    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/the-pitiful-decline-of-australias-democratic-institutions,18637

    Australia had it all. So what happened?

    Labor embraced neoliberalism. That’s what happened …

    What has happened here over the last 50 years might not be immediately obvious to us. But that is because we are up too close.

    A few steps back and objectivity will reveal a degeneration of our democracy which is bleak and almost complete. In the 1950s and 1960s, Australia was the most egalitarian country in the world. The rich were rich but not obscenely so.

    The middle class were very comfortable. The workers all had jobs which paid enough for them to easily afford the necessities of life and have enough left over for a car and a holiday.

    Full employment was considered the most important part of the economy — so much so that the founding charter of the Reserve Bank made it a legal requirement for full employment to be its number one priority.

    Anyone who wanted a job could have one and could keep it for life if they chose. Unions were not only strong but were respected.

    Even the conservative Prime Minister Robert Menzies felt the need to make public statements at election time about how much he supported the rights of collective bargaining.

    Former Prime Minister Gough Whitlam took all that and parlayed it into a country where justice and equality reign supreme. A Medicare system where health care was, in effect, free.

    A legal aid system in which no one was disadvantaged because of lack of funds. Free tertiary education. Humane treatment of refugees, and a hundred and one just and laudable innovations besides.

    Now that is all gone, ironically at the behest of the next Labor leader after Whitlam. Former PM Bob Hawke introduced neo-liberal economic public policy and media monopolies in Australia.

    But he was a clever man. He managed to destroy the unions and the lucky country along with them — and at the same time have everyone believe he was a “good bloke”.

    Former PM John Howard thanked Hawke for making such a good start and successfully set about removing every remaining wonderful aspect of our hitherto magnificent democracy.

    It’s too late now to get back the Australia many of remember so fondly from our youth. Not while both parties of the duopoly continue to put profit before people.

    It’s time for change 🙁

  14. That makes Elon Musk the Rupert Murdoch of the 21st century.

    Be afraid. Be very afraid.

    Btw, I saw this bumper sticker on a Tesla when I was in Portland:

    ‘Love my Tesla
    Hate Elon Musk’

    Also saw my first Tesla Pick-up truck (? the angular one) on the road in Portland. They’re smaller than what I imagined. Not as ugly to look at as what I expected either.

  15. Sceptic says:
    Wednesday, May 29, 2024 at 7:10 am
    SMH. Ross Gittens…

    Labor sees that house prices and rents are rising because the supply of homes has failed to keep up with growth in the population. Part of the reason for this is what the statement admits has been a “long-term, chronic under-investment in social housing”.

    There needs to be a discussion & understanding about the meaning of “social housing”.. it’s not just low value subsidized slums

    It’s really about government ie societal investment in diversified housing assets
    ———————
    Gittins wrote in ‘The Saturday Paper’ a week a go that since the 1980s, social housing stocks have decline by 200,000 and that this number would , if still available, supply the currently needed homes.
    It’s a pity that the binary reactionists are so wedded to the ‘Immigration Bad’ cool-aid.

  16. C@tmomma says:
    Wednesday, May 29, 2024 at 5:13 am

    The numbers are what matter – just because you don’t like the source doesn’t change the facts.

    It demonstrates that the claims of diversification of wins farm locations doesn’t make up for nation wide wind shortages – which means there has to be basically 100% replication of generation capacity – an, no, there aren’t any grid scale batteries or enough hydro to cover that.

  17. Philip Seymour Hoffman:

    Bizarre comment. The only person bringing gender into the discussion is you. Seems to be the standard playbook of morally righteous people to attack the person along gender/race lines in order to distract from the underlying point being made.

    Again – two thirds of Australians agree immigration is way too high.

    The onus is on you in the minority to defend your position with logical arguments.

    But I guess if you can’t defend it logically you can simply call me racist – as Andrew_Earlwood and c@t_momma does – or sexist, as you appear to do.

    Odd comment to make considering that you started off your supposed “logical arguments” with ridiculous comment on the apparent tone of your interlocutor’s post.

    I didn’t call you sexist, I pointed out that you went straight to a misogynistic trope (“shrill”).

    But if the boot fits, wear it by all means mate.

  18. A few posters go on about migration affecting the Labor vote.

    I reckon if you asked most voyers how many migrants are coming into the country they would have no idea. They might be pissed off about the outcome of excessive migration but few would make the connection.

    Those outcomes will take ages to fix. If you turned the migration tap off today, the only difference would be that some industries would experience worse labour shortages.

  19. Wondering how that Greens MP in the seat of Brisbane got elected?
    He’s the Invisible Man in Parliament, has he even asked a question?
    Anyway, is it possible that Labor didn’t think they could win the seat in 2022 so tactically voted Greens?

  20. Confessions says:
    Wednesday, May 29, 2024 at 7:10 am

    But if you’re slashing immigration and only giving visas to celebrity couples, where will the workforce for the new projects come from?

    It’s already here. Building complex resource projects is a different skill set to building residential houses. We have plenty of experienced work force here to do these projects.

  21. C@tmomma

    To which I will only add the bit you ALWAYS leave out. The government have slashed the numbers for THIS FINANCIAL YEAR in half.

    ————————

    Lol.

    Couple points:

    1. Our historic long-term average of NOM prior to early 2000’s is sub 100k, more like 80k. So ‘slashing the migration take in half’ to 260k net is more like 3x’ing it from the sustainable level it should be.

    2. This is Labor’s PROJECTION that they’ll ‘bring it down(lol)’ to 260k net – which is already proving false and even partisan commentators can see they’ll be lucky to bring it ‘down’ to 370k net. Labor and treasury have a demonstrable track record of wildly incorrect projections on this issue. Another one is their hilarious building 1.2m homes in 5 years. Every economist can see that this simply will not happen. The only way to stop housing in Australia getting even worse than it already is, is to drastically reduce the literal millions of people coming into the country.

    The fact is Labor have been exposed as Big Australia pushers, which most Australian DO NOT AGREE WITH. No matter how much squirming and denial you engage in this is as clear as day. They cannot be trusted on this issue, which underpins the cost of living crisis they have engineered through their Big Australia policies.

    If they had come out prior to the election and said: ‘We will bring in over 1 million extra people into the country in the next 2 years’ do you think Australians would have voted them in? Instead Albo lied and said we will reduce migration only to turn around and crank it to levels never before seen in the history of Australia.

    This is why the electorate is turning on them.

    Turf them out for a generation until they fix their migration settings, the pack of treasonous globalists that is the modern Labor party and their pathetic head-in-the-sand apologists, such as yourself.

  22. Pied piper:

    Male life expectancy in USA 74.8 in 2022.

    That’s life expectancy at birth. If you want to know what the life expectancy for 77- and 81-year-olds is, you need to consult the actuarial tables.

    (and of course both Biden and Trump are recipients of some of the best health care it’s possible to have, which means they should expect to do even better).

  23. Confessions at 6:52am tells us how that crook and sexual devient Trump reckoned he could/would bomb China and Russia.

    In the most unlikely event that this clown ends up POTUS, I reckon the US Top Brass would quietly tell him to pull his head in very soon after inaugeration. The Yanks take the prestige of their military very seriously. How would most of them feel having Trump as Commander in Chief?

  24. Those outcomes will take ages to fix. If you turned the migration tap off today, the only difference would be that some industries would experience worse labour shortages.

    # Save DoorDash & UberEats /Vote Labor?

  25. Caf

    Odd comment to make considering that you started off your supposed “logical arguments” with ridiculous comment on the apparent tone of your interlocutor’s post.

    I didn’t call you sexist, I pointed out that you went straight to a misogynistic trope (“shrill”).

    But if the boot fits, wear it by all means mate.

    ——–

    There you go again – the only person bringing gender into this is you. A typical trait of moralistic wankers. See the term wanker can apply equally to males and females. As can the term shrill.

    To say you didn’t call me sexist is insincere, by implication you did and now you’re calling me misogynistic, so go figure.

    Engage on the issue, not the man (or woman) or them, they, whatever you want.

  26. Malinauskas is absolutely correct. We need to be building a nuclear industry to support AUKUS. That includes all phases of the nuclear cycle. That’s why we need an “expensive” nuclear power industry.

    In the US the same people that build and run the domestic nuclear power industry also operate the nuclear refueling of the subs and aircraft carriers, as well as the major research labs in the US. It is a an integrated national effort and always has been.

  27. C@tmomma says:
    Wednesday, May 29, 2024 at 8:29 am
    I think Stephanie Foster needs to go.

    The buck doesn’t stop with her.

    So much for the sisterhood.

  28. Philip Seymour Hoffman:

    There you go again – the only person bringing gender into this is you. A typical trait of moralistic wankers. See the term wanker can apply equally to males and females. As can the term shrill.

    To say you didn’t call me sexist is insincere, by implication you did and now you’re calling me misogynistic, so go figure.

    Engage on the issue, not the man (or woman) or them, they, whatever you want.

    Calling a woman “shrill” is absolutely a gendered put-down with a long and disreputable history.

    The only insincere one here is you pretending you don’t know this.

  29. Cat

    It occurred to me that if you are still in Washington State and not far from Seattle, if you wanted you could probably see US nuclear subs moored at the Kitsap naval base there.

    There is a huge USN maintenance base at Bremerton (on the other side of Puget Sound from Seattle). The operational subs are on the other side of the Kitsap peninsula at Bangor, but I doubt that is open to visitors.

  30. caf

    According to your warped world-view where everything is through a gender and likely racial lens. Can’t engage on the argument so pop up like a pipsqueak to try and point score on a confected gender issue.

  31. Is it time for Labor to present a serious rebuttal to Dutton’s Nuclear proposal, now that the CSIRO CBA has been debunked?

  32. I expect Miles to be gone before the next sitting – 24 June.

    They’ll put some nice words around it, but he is cactus – now a political liability that can’t be kept dragging down the Government.


  33. Steve777says:
    Wednesday, May 29, 2024 at 10:15 am
    ”8 years 8 months 13 days actually.
    No, don’t thank me …”

    Definitely seemed longer…

    It went on and on and on….. to the detriment of this country.
    Every good institution dismantling started by John Howard is completed by ATM governments. This country is left with so many issues that just good governance, which would have been sufficient during Rudd-Gillard years, is insufficient.
    There are so many booby traps laid out by ATM governments, especially by Morrison government, for Albanese government, anything it touches with or without careful consideration is blowing up in their faces to the delight of Lars, FUBAR, PP, Taylormade, Badthinker, Irene and loathsome PSH.

    If by any chance Dutton comes to power, the democracy of this country will be finished once and for all.
    L-NP wanted one party rule in mid 2000s similar to Singapore but without its efficiency.
    Even Singapore is faltering and they have nothing to fall back on.

  34. FUBAR the Luddite,

    The sisterhood is a convenient trope used to mask genuine criticism of other women. Usually made by men who wish to distract from the substance of the criticism. Like you just did.

  35. Badthinkersays:
    Wednesday, May 29, 2024 at 4:34 am
    Citing Nutter Truckers on a par with believing CSIRO could ever be an authority on matters engineering, economic & accounting?
    =====================================================

    You really justify the “N” in the acronym “RWNJ”.

    “Science research, engineering and technology
    Our four research capability streams are scientists/engineers, consulting, management and projects.”
    https://www.csiro.au/en/careers/career-opportunities/science-and-engineering

  36. Socrates says:
    Wednesday, May 29, 2024 at 10:48 am

    Cat – there’s the Hanford Nuclear site that a few of my friends work at. Part of the Manhattan Project and the US Nuclear industry until it was shut.

  37. Badthinker says:
    Wednesday, May 29, 2024 at 10:51 am
    Is it time for Labor to present a serious rebuttal to Dutton’s Nuclear proposal, now that the CSIRO CBA has been debunked?

    _____________________________________

    How was it debunked? And something more substantial than a brainfart from a Coalition economic toady.

  38. Badthinker,
    Who has debunked the CSIRO report and analysis of the Coalition nuclear power distraction in aid of perpetuating fossil fuel use? The only people I can think of are all Liberals. Judith Sloan, Jo Nova, Ted O’Brien, Angus Taylor and Peter Dutton. Have I missed anyone reputable?

  39. Philip Seymour Hoffman says:
    Wednesday, May 29, 2024 at 9:26 am

    I for one hope that immigration rules are changed so that many more overseas students and young temporary workers can stay here. I love them. We should welcome them in. I particularly feel for the young women who feel safer here than in the countries they’ve left and who are forced to leave Australia. This country has so much to gain from our visitors. We should make it easier for them to come and to stay.

  40. The CSIRO report has not been “debunked”. There is disagreement around their assumptions and methodologies – all part of an open and important policy debate.

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