I’m advised that the proposed federal redistribution for Western Australia will be published early afternoon eastern time in Friday, and that EMRS will publish its first quarterly Tasmanian poll since the election at around midday today. Other than that, two items of polling news, one somewhat encouraging for Labor and another rather a lot less so.
The first of these is a multi-level regression with post-stratification (MRP) poll by Accent Research and RedBridge Group, an exercise that aims for a detailed election projection by surveying a large national sample of 4040 and using demographic modelling to project results for each electorate, and which it plans to conduct on a roughly quarterly basis. A similar exercise was conducted before the last election by YouGov which involved Shaun Ratcliff, who is now the principal of Accent Research. It performed reasonably in predicting 80 seats for Labor and 63 for the Coalition, compared with an actual result of 77 and 58. But it underestimated the scale of the gains by teal independents and the Greens, which maintained a record of the method doing better with major parties than minor parties and independents. The YouGov exercise also had a substantially larger sample of 18,923, which presumably allowed its demographically modelling to be more finely grained.
With that all taken on board, the seat projection has Labor on 73 and the Coalition on 53 with another nine too close to call, meaning a 50-50 result after rounding to whole numbers, including seven that are lineball between Labor and the Coalition. These are Labor-held Gilmore, Lingiari, Lyons and Robertson, together with their by-election gain of Aston, and Coalition-held Deakin and Moore (the latter of which points to a rather rosy reading of Labor’s situation in Western Australia).
Curtin is rated lineball between teal independent incumbent Kate Chaney and the Liberals, with Brisbane likewise between Greens incumbent Stephen Bates and the LNP, though the primary vote estimates appear to suggest Labor the more likely winner than the Greens (here I would repeat that warning about the method’s record in reading minor party and independent support). Only three seats are identified as changing hands: Cowper, where teal independent Caz Heise is tipped to succeed on the second attempt at unseating the Nationals by 52-48; Fowler, where Labor is credited with a 54-46 lead over independent member Dai Le; and Liberal-held Menzies, where Labor is credited with a 51-49 lead.
The exercise also works as a conventional opinion poll with the rate treat of breakdowns for each state and territory. Labor is credited with a 52-48 lead nationally, from primary votes of Labor 32%, Coalition 36% and Greens 13%. This represents very modest change on the 2022 result, which is also the case in each state and territory, including notably in Western Australia. All of the details, including the estimated results for each of the electorates (keeping in mind that these are set to be redrawn in three states and one territory), are available in the full report.
The less happy news for Labor comes from the weekly Roy Morgan poll, which is their worst result in this series for the term, putting the Coalition ahead 51.5-48.5 on two-party preferred, compared with a 50.5-49.5 Labor lead last time. The primary votes are Labor 28.5% (down two), Coalition 37% (steady), Greens 15% (up half) and One Nation 6% (up half). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1715.
Friendlyjordies’ latest video, talking about fish killings in the Darling River.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iLYwixdHYUI
An estimated 20-30 million fish dead near Menindee from 2023, mainly due to pesticides being washed into the river from floodwaters, according to his claims.
Mercury crosses 50°C in north, central India, heavy rain in Northeast kills 35
While many parts of northern and central India reeled under extreme heatwave conditions, heavy rain and thunderstorms triggered by Cyclone Remal left at least 35 people dead in northeastern states.
https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/imd-heatwave-alert-temperature-50degc-in-north-central-india-death-toll-heavy-rain-in-assam-mizoram-due-to-cyclone-remal-2541312-2024-05-29
“Many parts of northern and central India were in the grip of extreme heatwave conditions on Tuesday with the mercury touching 50 degrees Celsius in Rajasthan’s Churu and Haryana’s Sirsa and settling nine notches above normal in Delhi.
At least three weather stations in Delhi recorded maximum temperatures of 49 degrees Celsius or more. Mungeshpur and Narela in Delhi clocked 49.9 degrees, followed by Najafgarh at 49.8 degrees Celsius, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said.”
Vensays:
Wednesday, May 29, 2024 at 3:37 pm
Mercury crosses 50°C in north,
==============================================
I assume humidity is much lower than normal too for it to get that high in India?.
“Reminds me of Dotard stacking the Supreme Court with his shills so that in future years they will rule favourably towards his alleged criminality.”
Could be the first time the AAT has been compared with the US Supreme Court.
@Entropy at 3:43pm
Yes, that seems to be the case, the humidity around Delhi appears to be around 20-30% at the moment.
Dee
This is great news. Finding landowners who are happy to host these things, and paying them for their land will help with accelerating the build of large-scale renewables.
From the article:
* In short: A Riverland property owner has leased her land to host a large-scale solar farm for 40 years, and says unusable agricultural land could be repurposed for renewable energy projects.
* Energy expert Tony Wood says the number of land-based solar projects in Australia will grow with the demand for renewable energy.
* What’s next? Landowner Cathy Kruger says the income from the land lease will provide for her family in the future.
The flag of the state of Palestine is flown outside Leinster House (Irish Parliament) while the newly appointed Ambassador is welcomed to the floor of the Dail and a demonstration in the public gallery calls for sanctions against Israel.
https://www.rte.ie/news/ireland/2024/0528/1451568-ireland-recognition-palestine/
https://twitter.com/DavidShoebridge/status/1795693257336463491
This is ASTOUNDING !!
I refuse to reward him with my clicks.
Did he provide any scientific evidence to support that claim about pesticides?
Normally these types of events are caused by lack of oxygenation of the water and/or algal blooms.
The numbers sound huge – but that’s because it’s a huge river.
Yes.
On punishing “Hate” (and rewarding “Love”??)
According to the Attorney General’s Department, “There is no Commonwealth legislation enshrining a general right to freedom of expression. The High Court has inferred a freedom of political communication primarily from sections 7 and 24 of the Constitution.”
https://www.ag.gov.au/rights-and-protections/human-rights-and-anti-discrimination/human-rights-scrutiny/public-sector-guidance-sheets/right-freedom-opinion-and-expression#what-is-the-right-to-freedom-of-opinion-and-expression
Once upon a time in a universe far far away the preoccupation of a Labo*r Attorney General would be to address this gap and enshrine an Australians’ right to free speech and protection of whistle blowers to support robust debate in an open democracy.
But, alas, we live in a new hyper-sensitive world where the State’s role is not to champion unsettling freedoms but to protect against any offence (to the petite bourgeoisie). The trajectory is to a narrower conformity to values defined overseas and enforced with police powers and social censure.
For stifling debate, punishing the uncouth and reflecting North American bourgeois pathologies, it seems wee Dickie Dreyfus is your MAN and sadly the ALP (and Greens?) is your vehicle
The deal is done!
Despite up to 2000 people recently dying in a landslide, the Australian and PNG Governments and the NRL announce $600M to be spent on a PNG NRL team.
Much as I love the thought of NRL becoming THE sport of the South Pacific (Christchurch must be the next team) I can only see pain for Albo out of this.
https://www.news.com.au/sport/nrl/deal-is-done-australian-taxpayers-to-fork-out-600m-for-png-to-join-nrl/news-story/cbdc1b45274bbe883117ecbd5c6ac2c7
Interesting discussion about Australia recognising Palestine on Kevin Bonham’s Twitter/X account. (https://x.com/kevinbonham/status/1795621132999213264).
There was a motion in Parliament to suspend Standing Orders to discuss Palestine, but that motion was shot down.
The Teals are not the favourites of the month at the moment.
Although looking at the NRL article again I am smelling a beat up
FUBAR:
We do not pay wind and solar to not produce.
When the market clears a negative price, the generators (including wind and solar) that were dispatched have to pay to generate, and the energy consumers get paid to consume.
In most cases the market participants also hold off-market financial derivatives like Contracts-For-Difference or Power Purchase Agreements that blunt the effect somewhat (or they’re vertically integrated “gentailers” participating on both sides of the market).
》Please tell me we do not pay wind and solar to not produce.
Nope. It simply means anyone getting the wholesale rate for generation is paying for the privlage of putting power onto the grid
PVO demonstrating what a lightweight commenter he is – no wonder even the SmearStralian has ‘boned’ him.
Immigration minister Andrew Giles is appearing on ABC TV (from his dimly lit office in parliament house, not the ABC parliamentary studio) and he is being asked about the “revised” ministerial direction 99:
What we have seen in the Administrative Appeals Tribunal decisions is the original intent of ministerial direction 99 was not being followed. We have seen that. We have not seen the commonsense approach Australians should expect nor are we seeing the focus on community safety and this was made clear in Question Time today.
This was clearly a problem under previous directions under the former government too with many examples illustrated there.
We are focused on a new, revised direction that will put a high weight on community safety, but also deal specifically with additional concerns we see around victims and their families being heard and of course around redoubling our focus on family violence prevention.
Giles continued:
Some of the Administrative Appeals Tribunal decisions are very hard to reconcile with any sense of the expectations of the Australian community no, frankly, commonsense. These are very concerning, which is why I have also rushed to consider cancellation submissions in respect of some cases brought to light and already cancelled six visas having done so.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2024/may/29/australia-politics-live-parliament-question-time-anthony-albanese-peter-dutton-cost-of-living-immigration-visa-giles-environment-plibersek#top-of-blog
Andrew Giles…
Did Andrew Giles consider stepping down as minister?
Giles:
My focus has been and will continue to be focusing on fixing the mess that was left by Peter Dutton. Mess that has been revealed in three damning reviews; Nixon, Parkinson and Richardson.
As we have seen, particularly today in many reports in that Sydney Morning Herald and Parliament today, we’ve seen so many examples of decisions made by delegates of Mr Dutton when he was minister to release people in these circumstances.
Decisions not by a court, not by a tribunal. Decisions made by delegates of the Minister. This is something that is absolutely shocking…he is yet to account for his actions there
[What I owe the Australian community] is to work day and night to keep the community safe, to do everything I can do with strong laws and resources, including more than a quarter of $1 billion invested in supporting the cohort required to be released by the High Court in NZYQ.
On these issues, I owe the Australian community and my colleagues my absolute focus on continuing to do my job, which of course involves fixing the mess left with by Mr Dutton.
At last some good news in this tragic incident, police appear to have homed in on a lead in the Samantha Murphy murder case near Ballarat.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/phone-found-in-fresh-search-for-body-of-samantha-murphy-20240411-p5fj1o.html
Hoping this does lead to the discovery of her body and bring a conclusion to this horrible crime.
OC
V’landys is a mercurial character.
Earlier this year, my little red and black striped heart was thrilled by his statements that the Bears were coming back to the NRL and would play some games at my old stamping ground of North Sydney Oval.
But more recently he’s been talking about the Bears bring based in Perth.
Perhaps he’ll shortly announce that the PNG team will actually be based in Cairns.
Labor luvvies changing the subject anything but labor’s disastrous day.
meher baba @ #220 Wednesday, May 29th, 2024 – 4:56 pm
The NRL really needs another team in Sydney, so it makes perfect sense to bring back the Bears and also the Jets and possibly the Glebe Dirty Reds.
Who knows with PV’L – it sounds like he is playing one bid against another.
Yougov UK election poll:
Labour 47
Conservatives 20
Reform 12
Lib Dems 9
Greens 7
@Pied Piper at 5:03pm
Oh get over it.
My favourite genre of post on here is partisan hacks calling others partisan hacks.
Pied Piper accusing anyone else of being a partisan who is trying to redirect the conversation to topics they find favourable is hilarious and lacking extremely in self-awareness.
Rikalisays:
Wednesday, May 29, 2024 at 4:07 pm
But, alas, we live in a new hyper-sensitive world where the State’s role is not to champion unsettling freedoms but to protect against any offence (to the petite bourgeoisie). The trajectory is to a narrower conformity to values defined overseas and enforced with police powers and social censure.
For stifling debate, punishing the uncouth and reflecting North American bourgeois pathologies, it seems wee Dickie Dreyfus is your MAN and sadly the ALP (and Greens?) is your vehicle,
====================================================
Looks like this Rakali has decided to live down a rabbit hole.
Come on down President Harris !!…..
Kamala Harris gaining swing-state voters’ trust as Biden’s surrogate
May 29, 2024 — 3.46pm
Washington: US Vice President Kamala Harris is increasingly endearing herself to swing-state voters, a development that if it persists, stands to neutralise Republican attacks around President Joe Biden’s age.
Nearly half of swing-state voters, 48 per cent, say they trust Harris to fulfil the duties of the presidency if Biden were no longer able to serve, according to a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll conducted in early May. The reading marks the highest level of confidence since the survey was first conducted in October.
I Kamala had to go head to head with Trump she would eat him alive.
ASIO is up,at Senate Estimates
@Sceptic at 5:28pm
Honestly I think Kamala Harris should show more of the energy she had in the 2019-20 Democratic primaries.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S6-UC8yr0Aw
Just look at her here, there’s passion and drive there. And compare it with any speech she made as Vice President.
The way things are going, I just hope she can at least trounce whatever lickspittle Trump puts up as his running mate for VP.
VP’s tend to say little Kirsdarke
Wat Tyler says:
Wednesday, May 29, 2024 at 5:21 pm
My favourite genre of post on here is partisan hacks calling others partisan hacks.
Pied Piper accusing anyone else of being a partisan who is trying to redirect the conversation to topics they find favourable is hilarious and lacking extremely in self-awareness.
He who makes an accusation usually is deflecting from their own behaviour
Word salad Kamala lol!
“Ukraine is a country. Its in Europe. Russia is also a country, its bigger than Ukraine” RFLMAO!
She can hardly string three sensical words together. Bumbling Biden will do just fine.
Sceptic: Kamala has definitely been improving her performance lately, but let’s not get carried away.
She is one of the main reasons that Biden is required to keep on going rather than step aside.
@davidwh at 5:37pm
That’s true, I suppose, especially in public speaking, although they do at least often show power behind the screen. Dick Cheney to Dubya was one, even Biden himself to Obama was another.
With Kamala Harris, the meme has settled that all she does is sit in a corner office and answer emails, as started by The Onion. Not that Mike Pence was any better though.
Polls have indicated for a while now that ‘generic Democrat’ beats Trump.
I am still far from confident about Biden being able to win
Wat Tyler or Dog’s Brunch or anyone else who might have been following parliament.
Did Labor actually have a bad day today? The news reports I’ve seen didn’t say anything to that effect.
I’m not trying to reassure anyone. Immigration policy remains a mess and I reckon that’s getting through to voters. But that’s a slow burn.
Yeah, improving Harris’s reputation has been one goal of the Biden Administration this last half-year. For two reasons: so the public have faith in the contingency to Biden (i.e. if Biden drops dead, she could take the reins satisfactorily) and also, should Biden win, make sure their frontrunner in 2028 isn’t terminally unpopular. One of the unofficial roles of a VP is to be an attack dog or say things that might be unpopular to test waters but you can’t let them become too much of a problem or they could, at very least, be an anchor on the administration.
I don’t agree with the notion that Biden should step aside for her this year and let her beat Trump. That would just create chaos and show a lack of confidence from the Democratic side. Plus she would carry all the baggage from this term, without any of the incumbency. Also, I don’t think we should underestimate the bad optics of a woman “usurping” a man who was democratically elected (regardless of how friendly the transfer seems.)
Long story short, her optics have been a lot better in the last few months. Don’t know if she’d ever be President but her prospects are better than they were last year.
She just needs to work on her communication skills. Her words are sometimes too carefully constructed and come across as insincere.
You’d think out of 350,000,000 Americans, they’d be able to find two POTUS candidates that were actually viable?
Biden is evidently corrupt and demented. Trump is evidently corrupt and deranged.
Anyone that supports either of these fools is a partisan hack* and an idiot.
(*apologies to Wat Tyler)
meher baba @ #235 Wednesday, May 29th, 2024 – 5:18 pm
I don’t know. I don’t watch parliament and I have been working for most of the day, so I couldn’t tell you whether or not it was a bad day for them.
I agree on the immigration point. Don’t know whether anything today cut through but it’s definitely a resonating issue.
Agree with that.
Imagine if Biden were to step aside for a younger candidate. The obvious replacement is the VP Harris. But how do you replace a woman of colour (as will be the push should Biden not be the candidate), with someone else, presumably a white male without coming off as same-same as Republicans?
It won’t happen. Biden is the Democrat nominee. People need to recognise that the binary choice gives them either Trump and all his candidature represents, or Biden, which is the far safer option.
Any talk of anything else is just playing into the hands of Republicans and Trump.
It doesn’t matter which way you cut it – it looks bad for Biden. And, this is with Trump sitting through a court case about a fucking a porn star and paying to cover it up – a situation that any opponent would normally dream of.
RealClear Politics
Trump v Biden RCP Poll Average Trump +1.1
5-way RCP Avergae Trump +1.8
Top Battle Grounds Trump +3.1
Electoral College
RCP Electoral Map Trump 219 Biden 215 Toss Ups 104
No Toss Up States Trump 312 Biden 226
It’s as if the Democrats actually want to lose.
What can’t they see about how shit a candidate Biden is?
Kirsdarke:
The late, lamented (at least by me) PJ O’Rourke once wrote lyrically of the role of the “shithouse greeter” at one of the major hotels in Washington. This was a guy (African-American, as you would suspect in what is at heart a city of the South) who would provide soap and towels to patrons of the Gents, and even put gel in their hair and comb it, if asked.
PH observed that this guy was the second least important person in Washington, just ahead of the V-P.
I reckon it was a pretty accurate assessment.
I haven’t seen the news, and have been at work all day so haven’t watched QT.
As I’ve said previously, Giles needs to go. He is the weak link on immigration and for that reason is obviously targetted by the opposition.
Albo needs a reshuffle before the end of this year where Giles is moved sideways to a nothing burger portfolio where he isn’t in the limelight so much.
Confessions says:
Wednesday, May 29, 2024 at 5:51 pm
Harris would be a disaster.
Surely there are plenty of female Democrats apart from Harris and the Squad?
FUBARsays:
Wednesday, May 29, 2024 at 2:12 pm
Please tell me we do not pay wind and solar to not produce.
==================================================
Nope, not wind and solar, but it would be most of our current crop of politicians, particularly the LNP types.
meher baba says:
Wednesday, May 29, 2024 at 5:54 pm
One of his is always one of the first books for my holiday reading.
Newsome is their only chance but he’s a white guy replacing a black lady (and he looks like a used car salesman).
Biden will stay.
What do they say about Absolute Power?
The one who had a bad day is Peter Dutton , his incompetence as Home Affairs minister is coming out each time the federal lib/nats try to attack Labor
This sounds like someone who lost the immigration debate and backfire on him badly
I cancelled more than 6300 visas’: Dutton hits back at allegations on X
After an exclusive story was published by the Herald during question time, the opposition leader was quick to respond on social media.
The Vice Presidency ain’t worth a pitcher of warm piss
– [V.P.] Cactus Jack Garner