Newspoll has not reported according to the three-week schedule it usually observes, but the Financial Review fills the void with the monthly Freshwater Strategy poll. This records a tie on two-party preferred after a 51-49 result in favour of Labor last time, but it’s based on only the slightest changes on the primary vote, with Labor steady on 31%, the Coalition up one on 40% and the Greens down one on 13%. Anthony Albanese is up a point on approval to 38% and steady on disapproval at 45%, Peter Dutton is up two to 32% and down two to 41%, and Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister narrows from 47-38 to 45-39. The poll was conducted Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1055.
AFR: Australia’s sharemarket is falling after reports of attacks on Iran reignited fears of the high tensions in the Middle East spilling into a wider conflict. The Australian sharemarket sank near a three-month low following the report, and remains on track for its worst week since September 2022 – falling 3.4 per cent since the open of trading on Monday.
The news also sent the price of gold back near its record high above $US2400 an ounce. Brent Crude resurged above $US90 a barrel after falling for much of the week. “If these reports turn out to be true, fears over further escalation will only grow, as well as concerns that we are potentially moving closer towards a situation where oil supply risks lead to actual supply disruptions,” said ING head of commodities strategy Warren Patterson. HSBC chief economist and global commodities Paul Bloxham said the heightened tensions in the Middle East were sending investors to the safe haven asset amid uncertainty in the region’s outlook.
Ex-SNP leader Sturgeon’s husband has been arrested and charged.
BW: “My reasoning goes that the sort of men who commit DV are extremely unlikely to listen to women leading anti DV campaigns. There is a sort of perverse structural weakness in that approach. So, rather than Batty, we should instead be focusing on men of the kind that men might actually listen to, or even wish to emulate.
For example, Rugby League prop forwards.”
—————————————————————————
That’s an interesting idea. Because you can’t be entirely sure as to what skeletons anyone might have in their personal closet, it’s probably better to use someone who admits that they have thrown the fists around a bit or engaged in verbal abuse with partners (not too much, but enough to be credible) but who have seen the light and now know what they did was wrong.
I still think you are going to struggle because, from what I’ve seen most of the men who engage in this sort of behaviour are unlikely to listen because they consider perversely that they, and not their wife/partner are the true victim. “I couldn’t help it, she made me do it because she…” (insert here a selection from alleged unfaithfulness/endless scolding/money wasting/unjust decision to end the relationship or whatever other shortcoming you can think of). Or they excuse themselves by whinging that “there’s something deeply wrong with me and I don’t know how to fix it.” Or they simply don’t believe that their wife/partner has any rights as a human being. I’m not sure how to overturn these attitudes.
Perhaps the best imaginable message would be start convicting a few of these guys before they put their partner in hospital or in the grave. And then run a series of ads that say “We’re getting much better at catching people who commit DV and locking them up in prison. So watch out.”
But, then, as I am not left-wing, I tend to have a very dark view of human nature.
Matt @ #2095 Friday, April 19th, 2024 – 2:10 pm
All true. Our politicians seem overly obsessed with short term issues. If only there were some politicians that actually proposed we also deal with some of the longer term issues that matter to young people – like … oh, let’s just do some blue-sky thinking here … how about political integrity, the status of women, climate change … do you think that might a good start? 🙂
The Iranian claims of “what missile?” aren’t terribly convincing.
Boerwarsays:
Friday, April 19, 2024 at 2:11 pm
‘Bystander says:
Friday, April 19, 2024 at 2:05 pm
Attorney-General Mark Dreyfus will call out a crisis of male violence in Australia and demand that men step up to prevent it, after the number of women killed in violent incidents so far this year reached 24, including five in a stabbing rampage at Sydney’s Bondi Junction last weekend
.
It will be fascinating to hear just what he expects men to do. My guess is that it will just be more of the same old stuff that has so far had absolutely zero effect on the problem.’
——————————
Hmmmm…. the Fed and State labor governments are spending huge amounts on DV. The statistics are, if anything, getting worse.
I don’t know the solution but I do believe that Dreyfus is at least partly on the right track. Men have to lead on this.
My reasoning goes that the sort of men who commit DV are extremely unlikely to listen to women leading anti DV campaigns. There is a sort of perverse structural weakness in that approach. So, rather than Batty, we should instead be focusing on men of the kind that men might actually listen to, or even wish to emulate.
For example, Rugby League prop forwards.
————————–
It’s as if they are focused on the symptoms not the condition because there has always been violence men but it clear that many men have lost the plot on how to behave and the political class doesn’t get it.
FUBAR: “The Iranian claims of “what missile?” aren’t terribly convincing.”
Yeah, but the mullahs want to keep running their own country and grievously oppressing their own poor citizens. An escalation of their conflict with Israel into a full-blown war with western backing would jeopardise their continuing hold on power.
What is wrong with Desalination Plants?
What’s your alternative? Make more rain? Build more dams? Suck more out of the aquifers?
Right, so that’s why petrol jumped 50c/L today.
The near-future EV purchase is looking well in the black now.
Regarding rugby league front row forwards I agree you could do a lot worse than follow the example of Shane Weber when calling out bad male behavior towards women.
He was as tough as any front rower who have ever played the game but called out strongly bad behavior from certain Bronco players and resigned his club position to make his point.
There have been claims on this site that real wages growth has decreased under the Albanese Government by 4% to 5%. Is this actually true?. Real wages growth is wages growth minus the CPI increase for a given period. For the period 2H 2022 (first 6 months of Albanese Government) wages growth increased 1.9% while the CPI increased 3.7%. Which means real wages went backwards 1.8% in the first 6 months of the Albanese Government. Which actually was an improvement over the 2.4% they went backwards under the last 6 months of the Morrison Government. In 2023 real wages actually grew by a slight 0.1%, the first time in 3 years. So up to end of December 2023 real wages growth was negative 1.7% under the Albanese Government. Which is significantly different to the 4% to 5% being claimed in some posts. Also all this negative growth occurred in the first 6 months of Government. After this period real wages growth was slightly positive.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-02-21/wage-price-index-december-quarter-2023/103493098
davidwhsays:
Friday, April 19, 2024 at 2:48 pm
Regarding rugby league front row forwards I agree you could do a lot worse than follow the example of Shane Weber when calling out bad male behavior towards women.
He was as tough as any front rower who have ever played the game but called out strongly bad behavior from certain Bronco players and resigned his club position to make his point.
———————–
Agree but the message also has to show the right behaviors.
”
Rewisays:
Friday, April 19, 2024 at 1:09 pm
OK, so I will say this about Macarthur/Enough Already.
I was just talking with a co-worker about global affairs and this person said, of Ukraine, ‘I thought that was finished already’.
”
And that person who said that must be educated. It shows apathy of Australians in general.
But according to media we get outraged at smallest issues. Apparently.
No wonder L-NP gets regularly in this country of ours.
Albanese Strategy to win the Womens Vote [again]:
Blame all Men for everything and anything
Attack Dutton as Misogynist when he doesn’t fall in lockstep
Grace Tame
Rosie Batty
Call Election before SHTF in July at Reynolds/Higgins Defo Trial
That’s it
Somehow, I don’t think it’s going to work this time around, but credit for trying
Darn autocorrect Shane Webke
I mentioned some comments earlier on mental health and the (in my view) need for more psychiatric care beds in Australia. Some disagreed with my view and pointed out that we still don’t know much about the recent incidents in Sydney.
Whilst that is true, that doesn’t change my concerns, and thought I would add some evidence to back them up. This is a comparison of psychiatric care beds per 100,000 people in a range of OECD countries. Australia (39) rates at slightly over half the OECD average (68).
https://www.researchgate.net/figure/PSYCHIATRIC-CARE-BEDS-PER-100-000-POPULATION_fig2_313817909
You can see some of the base data here. The Australian (and other) figures include community residential as well as hospital psychiatric care beds. So the low Australian rate of care privision is not due to method of care delivery. Our rate of provision is low. The USA, which rates slightly lower, looks better if you include their large number of private psychiatric care beds.
https://apps.who.int/gho/data/node.main.MHBEDS?lang=en
This data for Australia is for 2016, though high population growth since is unlikely to have improved the situation.
”
steve davissays:
Friday, April 19, 2024 at 1:37 pm
The way its going there is going to be a full scale Middle East war before long, and if Trump the looney gets elected anything could happen.
”
steve davis
Mexicanbeemer I think it’s easier to highlight the wrong behavior that point out the right behaviors which may be different for different individuals and groups. It’s hard as neither women or men are homogeneous groups.
‘FUBAR says:
Friday, April 19, 2024 at 2:33 pm
The Iranian claims of “what missile?” aren’t terribly convincing.’
———————————-
True. In a sense it was the sort of good lie that might have enabled them to get out of retaliating against Israel while still saving face.
When I was a young bloke AFL football at the elite level was extremely violent. It was almost routine for players to punch each other’s lights out.
Since then three main drivers seem to have cleaned up most of the AFL violence at the elite level.
The first is that the VFL, and then the AFL, wanted women to attend in large numbers. Associated with this was they wanted footie mums to feel OK about their kids playing AFL. They felt they needed to reduce the violence to make the game palatable.
The second driver, and lately a crucial driver, has been the exposure of the AFL to concussion litigation. It is not just king hits that are being eliminated. It is all sorts of tackling and bumping as well. Notionally, at least, the head is sacrosanct. The AFL judicial process is still pretty scatty but the clean-up in player behaviour has been quite remarkable.
The third one is that the margins are so tight that losing a key player can seriously upset the balance of a team. Players who get themselves banned from games do not necessarily get a welcome reception from the coach or the team mates.
So, as noted AFL is remarkably less violent than it used to be.
There are some ALF players who have never been reported or convicted of breaking the rules, who would make admirable role models and influencers against male violence.
I would like to see especially Indigenous men step up because statistically rates of DV are higher in Indigenous communities.
Test
‘Socrates says:
Friday, April 19, 2024 at 3:05 pm
….’
—————–
Good post, IMO. I suspect there are related bottlenecks – staffing and the like – that would need to be addressed
It would be interesting to see whether the Netherland’s changed approach to medicalizing drugs instead of criminalizing them is making a difference in this policy space.
‘Badthinker says:
Friday, April 19, 2024 at 3:04 pm
Albanese Strategy to win the Womens Vote [again]:
Blame all Men for everything and anything
,,,,;
——————
Lie.
Australians in Israel have been urged to leave the country urgently if it is safe to do so as concerns mount about further escalation of conflict in the region following Israel’s retaliation strike on Iran.
The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade has updated its travel advice for Australians in Israel and the Palestinian territories, saying they should leave now if safe to do so.
The update came after Israel launched a retaliatory strike against Iran on Friday.
“We urge Australians in both Israel or the Occupied Palestinian Territories to depart if it’s safe to do so,” the warning stated. “Military attacks may result in airspace closures, flight cancellations and diversions and other travel disruptions.” DFAT also warned Australians in Israel that Tel Aviv’s Ben Gurion International Airport “may pause operations due to heightened security concerns at any time, and at short notice”.
From The Guardian
‘Fire ants spotted near tip of Murray Darling Basin
The Nationals have expressed concern over the discover of fire ants at Oakey, west of Toowoomba, for the first time.
Nationals leader David Littleproud said in a statement that Labor had been “too slow to act” on the issue, and the discovery was of great concern because Oakey is at the tip of the Murray Darling Basin….’
———————
Jesus. The Big Lies are coming thick and fast.
The best time to knock fire ants off was when they were first located. John Howard was the Prime Minister at that time.
The Coalition had the last ten years to do something about fire ants. But they dragged the chain.
IMO, there are off the chain, regardless of how much we spend now. We can safely add fire ants to the drivers of accelerating extinction rates in Australia’s contribution to the Anthropocene Extinction Event.
Hh
FFS. What are they doing there at all?
Heshbollah has an estimated 100,000 missiles many of which have retrofitted guidance systems.
Boerwarsays:
Friday, April 19, 2024 at 3:25 pm
‘Badthinker says:
Friday, April 19, 2024 at 3:04 pm
Albanese Strategy to win the Womens Vote [again]:
Blame all Men for everything and anything
,,,,;
——————
Lie.
==================================
Yes, that’s LNP standard strategy they take to all elections.
‘davidwh says:
Friday, April 19, 2024 at 2:48 pm
Regarding rugby league front row forwards I agree you could do a lot worse than follow the example of Shane Weber when calling out bad male behavior towards women.
…’
————–
Yep.
‘FUBAR says:
Friday, April 19, 2024 at 2:43 pm
What is wrong with Desalination Plants?
What’s your alternative? Make more rain? Build more dams? Suck more out of the aquifers?’
———————–
D’oh.
There are plenty of ways including not pissing away water on growing beef.
15,000 litres of water per kg of beef.
#Fire and move.
Grattan, contents as per the link:
https://citynews.com.au/2024/ethnic-tensions-complicate-multicultural-policy-reform/?utm_source=mailpoet&utm_medium=email&utm_source_platform=mailpoet&utm_campaign=canberra-daily-today-s-news-today_7801
Water recycling could greatly assist.
I’d be very surprised if any of Perth’s domestic water supply is used for growing beef.
‘FUBAR says:
Friday, April 19, 2024 at 3:42 pm
Boerwar says:
Friday, April 19, 2024 at 3:37 pm
There are plenty of ways including not pissing away water on growing beef.
15,000 litres of water per kg of beef.
I’d be very surprised if any of Perth’s domestic water supply is used for growing beef.’
———————
Well, we would want you to surprise yourself.
You posited desal as the only alternative.
It isn’t.
Rewi says:
Friday, April 19, 2024 at 3:41 pm
Water recycling could greatly assist.
I fully support the use of recycled water but you are basically putting it through a desalination plant – which is BAD!!!!
The Watercorporation in WA has done a huge amount of work on public perception of recycled water and the options for sourcing additional water and the end result was build another desalination plant.
Desalination plants make great sense for coastal cities like Perth.
Once again, I ask – what is wrong with making water through desalination?
FUBAR @ #2134 Friday, April 19th, 2024 – 3:46 pm
This:
https://www.sciencenews.org/article/desalination-pours-more-toxic-brine-ocean-previously-thought
FUBAR
All potable water goes through a treatment plant, as is required for recycling, which is not the same thing as desalination.
Desalination plants that helped address salinity in agricultural areas might be an improvement on using seawater.
FUBAR
“Once again, I ask – what is wrong with making water through desalination?”
Fair question. Philosophically I am not against desalination depending on where the power comes from. It is an environmentally clean but very energy intensive process. So if you can power it renewably, its mostly OK.
The infrastructure is still resource intensive, so I would always say to be more water efficient first. But if Australian government policy is to keep expanding population, then sooner or later yes we will be building more desal plants. The cost is not cheap but at city level per person it is peanuts compared to what our land prices have already (insanely) climbed to.
Boerwar says:
Friday, April 19, 2024 at 3:39 pm
From the article by Grattan:
Granny Anny will be all over this like a rash.
Player One
” Once again, I ask – what is wrong with making water through desalination?
This:
https://www.sciencenews.org/article/desalination-pours-more-toxic-brine-ocean-previously-thought
For every liter of pure water made, they found that on average 1.5 liters of highly concentrated brine is released back into the environment. ”
———————————————–
The brine question is easily overcome if it can be discharged into a large enough bidy of water that is well mixed. The brine is not actually polluted in a chemical sense – it is simply a more concentrated salt solution.
So in this case, as one engineering colleague said to me, dilution is the solution to the pollution. Take the pipe far enough out into the sea and discharge into a moving (not stagnant) body of water and its fine. At a geographic scale the quantity of salt is still tiny.
I have seen video of the water around the GC desal plant brine discharge pipe into the ocean. A year after completion there were more fish in the area than before construction.
‘Some brine can also still be hot from evaporative processes during desalination. ‘
Commercial desalination plants do not use the evaporative method of removing salt from water, they use reverse osmosis.
Salt concentration in sea water is 3.5%. Removing that from one litre of seawater and adding it to 1.5 litres of sea water would increase the concentration of that 1.5 litres from 3.5% to 5.8% per litre.
Putting those figures through FUBAR’s calculator, the increase in concentration of salt is therefore only one tenth of a thousand increase (or something like that).
FUBAR
Gaggle Government, here we come.
After nearly five months since the election of ‘formatie’, the process of negotiating to form the Cabinet, the four Right parties are still dicking around about nitrates in drinking water, managing finances and kicking all muslims out of the Netherlands. The levels of anger inside the process and outside the process are growing.
In Australia the BOP Lambies are straying and Bo Peep can’t find them reliably.
Hanson shed MPs at an historic rate.
The Greens turfed out long term hardy reps like Rhiannon. Thorpe torpedoed herself.
FUBARsays:
Friday, April 19, 2024 at 4:00 pm
Boerwar says:
Friday, April 19, 2024 at 3:39 pm
From the article by Grattan:
A recently-registered group called Muslim Votes Matter styles itself as “shaping our future through informed voting and collective influence”. It says on its website: “There are over 20 seats where the Muslim community collectively has the potential deciding vote”.
Granny Anny will be all over this like a rash.
====================================================
Didn’t the Australian Christian Lobby start off making similar sorts of claims?. How are they going now?. Muslims might prove as equally diverse and resist any similar attempts to herd them. For certain peoples political gain.
‘Leader says:
Friday, April 19, 2024 at 4:06 pm
‘Some brine can also still be hot from evaporative processes during desalination. ‘
Commercial desalination plants do not use the evaporative method of removing salt from water, they use reverse osmosis.
Salt concentration in sea water is 3.5%. Removing that from one litre of seawater and adding it to 1.5 litres of sea water would increase the concentration of that 1.5 litres from 3.5% to 5.8% per litre.
Putting those figures through FUBAR’s calculator, the increase in concentration of salt is therefore only one tenth of a thousand increase (or something like that).’
———————–
Bloody hell. If your calcs are right…. I imagine that doubling the salt concentration could/would have catastrophic impacts on some marine species.
Player One says:
Friday, April 19, 2024 at 3:50 pm
The article you linked to is pretty poor science. It basically says – there is a lot of brine being produced. Doesn’t acknowledge that there are huge oceans to disperse the brine in making the amount of brine insignificant. It provides no actual examples of the negative impacts that it highlights.
Having been involved on the WA DWER approvals process for the brine outfall for Desal plants and the operation of the ongoing monitoring of the outfalls, the fact is that well designed and located outfalls quickly disperse the brine and reduce the concentration. Any negative effects would be highly localised.
Boerwar
The salt concentration all depends on the respective volumes of water. Both desal plants I am familiar with (GC and Kwinana) discharge into bodies of water such that the movement rate of the surrounding water in terms of cubic metres per hour is thousands of times larger than the brine discharge volume. For ocean side plants it really makes no difference. One km downstream of the GC discharge point you would be lucky to detect it.
The ASX recovered over the course of today, and in fact was recovering as news of the attack broke and didn’t falter.
Make of that what you will.
Correct, and the brine generally goes into a pond or tank prior to discharge.
Your calculations could do with a little work but are on the right track.
I mean the same reasoning FUBAR is using for brine in the ocean informs his position on fossil fuel emissions as well.
FUBAR @ #2144 Friday, April 19th, 2024 – 4:11 pm
Right. Those are probably the same incompetent scientists that still believe in global warming.
Rewi @ #2148 Friday, April 19th, 2024 – 4:16 pm
Perhaps we could simply spray the brine into the atmosphere and create clouds that will prevent global warming.