Polls: Essential Research, Morgan and more (open thread)

Essential Research finds Labor taking the lead, Roy Morgan does the opposite, YouGov has results on deportations policy, and uComms suggests no surprises at Saturday’s Cook by-election

The fortnightly Essential Research poll has Labor recovering a lead on the 2PP+ measure after a distinctly poor result last time, with Labor up four to 48% and the Coalition down four to 46%. However, Labor remains at its lowest ebb for the term of 29% on the primary vote, with the Coalition down two to 34%, the Greens up three 14%, and One Nation down one to 6%. For both measures, undecided is steady at 6%.

A regular question on the economic outlook finds an eight point drop since February in the expectation that conditions will get worse over the next twelve months to 48% and a two point rise in expectations of improvement to 21%. Further questions focus on housing, including a finding that 51% support removing “tax concessions like negative gearing and capital gains tax discounts for property investors”, with only 19% opposed, and 40% wanting lower house prices against 15% for higher and 45% for “stabilised”. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from 1165.

The Essential poll also asked about the two specifics of the government’s deportation bill that was blocked in the Senate last week, with 51% support for one-year prison terms for non-citizens who refused to co-operate with deportation against 17% opposed, and 50% support for blacklisting countries that refuse to accept deportees from further visa applications against 14% opposed. However, a poll published yesterday by YouGov found only 31% support for the government having “the power to ban all visa applications from a particular country” when the alternative option was to “treat all visa applications on an individual merit basis regardless of country origin”, support for which was 60%. The YouGov poll was conducted March 29 to April 6 from a sample of 1517.

The weekly Roy Morgan poll contradicts Essential Research in finding the Coalition leading for first time since its first poll for the year, with a 51-49 Labor lead last week making way for a 50.5-49.5 lead to the Coalition. The primary votes are Labor 29.5% (down half), Coalition 38% (up half), Greens 13.5% (down two) and One Nation 6% (up two-and-a-half). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1731.

The Australian Institute has a uComms poll for Saturday’s Cook by-election, which unsurprisingly finds Simon Kennedy assured of retaining the seat for the Liberals. After distribution of a forced-response follow-up for the initially undecided, the primary votes are 52.8% for Kennedy, 17.3% for the Greens, 11.7% for independent Roger Woodward, 8.0% for Animal Justice, 5.7% for Sustainable Australia and 4.4% for the Libertarian Party, with Kennedy leading the Greens 65-35 on two-party preferred. There were also numerous attitudinal questions, including a finding that 51.2% rated former member Scott Morrison’s legacy as prime minister as good against 43.6% for poor. The poll was conducted March 28 from a sample of 914.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,749 comments on “Polls: Essential Research, Morgan and more (open thread)”

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  1. The Roman part is half correct.
    (By Gerard, are you referring to Hayes? Not a solid foundation for reform)

  2. Lars Von Triersays:
    Sunday, April 14, 2024 at 7:30 pm
    It is the end times OC, as foretold in prophecy.
    ================================================

    Wagner is not a prophet, just a very naughty racist boy.

  4. CNBC
    Situation on eastern front has ‘significantly worsened’ in recent days, Ukraine’s army chief warns

    https://www-cnbc-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2024/04/13/situation-in-east-ukraine-has-significantly-worsened-army-commander.html?amp_gsa=1&amp_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQGsAEggAID#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=17130876730628&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnbc.com%2F2024%2F04%2F13%2Fsituation-in-east-ukraine-has-significantly-worsened-army-commander.html

    “Ukraine’s top military general warned Saturday that the battlefield situation in the east of the country, which continues to be the epicenter of the fiercest fighting in Ukraine, has deteriorated sharply.

    “The situation on the eastern front has significantly worsened in recent days,” Oleksandr Syrskyi, commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces, said on Telegram.”

  5. Boerwar @ #1644 Sunday, April 14th, 2024 – 7:30 pm

    ‘rhwombat says:
    Sunday, April 14, 2024 at 6:43 pm

    I’m going to break my personal injunction against drunk-blogging ( I have had >40g of alcohol since coming back from climbing at ~16:00 – not conducive to rational thought in a 67 year-old anarcho-syndicalist infectious diseases physician & superannuated hippy).
    The 7 deaths & associated survivor trauma of the Bondi Junction tragedy was not foreseeable, preventable or the result of anyone’s error or malfeasance. The person responsible is dead, whatever their mental state or treatment. There are no scapegoats. There is no group to “other” – not even those who seek to use the events for personal or political gain. The hope, promise & grace* that emerges from this event (which I see in our communal response) is that this continues. No blame, no retribution – just grace. I am in awe of those who have responded with grace.
    https://twitter.com/RonniSalt/status/1779419931064643800
    * My daughter is named Grace for what I believe is a very good reason.’
    —————————-
    I agree that individuals have acted with courage and grace. The MSM? Not so much.

    IMO, there are two levels to consider here.

    The first is the more general consideration that outrage politics, anger politics, anxiety politics, FUD politics contribute to mental ill-health in our society. I have no doubt at all that it does. After all the very point is to astro turf the emotions to political victory.

    Again, in terms of mental ill-health, there can be little real doubt that being a targeted minority (black gangs) is bad for the mental health of minority communities.

    Again, there is a general appreciation that copy cat events can, and sometimes do, happen.

    We have a leading politician whose basic currency is FUD and the like, whose basic approach is to create scapegoats and the like. We know this because he has publicly admited that he likes stirring people up.

    This is not politics in a vacuum. This is not politics without an impact.

    Whether this particular incident is linked to the general mental health impact of FUD politics, we don’t know.

    But fear mongers need to be held accountable for their behaviours and the impacts of their behaviours.

    With respect to Trump, dozens of people, infected with his bile and almost certainly affected mentally by his rhetoric, are now either dead cos ivermectin and the like or in jail because of the assault on democracy.

    Dutton is, relatively speaking, small beer. But he is on the same track. He needs to be held accountable for the impact he is having on the mental health of susceptible Australians.

    I do not disagree, but think the personalisation allows resolution of cognitive-dissonance by identification as “but he’s like us not them”.

  6. OC who could forget these immortal words of Gerard Hayes:

    “Government is like a good golf swing – it’s all in the follow through’

    Words to live by?

  7. My personal interaction with Gerard did not end well but he does appear to be the future of the NSW Right.

  8. Oakeshott Countrysays:
    Sunday, April 14, 2024 at 7:26 pm
    I am thinking trending to 2
    Ihrem Ende eilen sie zu,
    die so stark in Bestehen sich wähnen.
    ==================================================

    If Loge’s prediction of the “Twilight of the Gods” is to have an analogy. It would be more in the demise of the LNP methinks. After all it was Morrison who claimed to be the one on whom a miracle was bestowed.

  9. Holden hillbilly/ Tonifa

    “ Holdenhillbilly:

    “Iran’s military chief of staff says that an Israeli retaliation will be met with a bigger Iranian attack than the one overnight.”

    Wow! Iran will respond with an even bigger attack than the one overnight! What do the Iranians have in mind? A giant pea shooter? A massive flour bomb? Some really cruel name-calling? I shudder to think.”
    —————————————————————-

    There are the seeds of a big long term problem in this, that highlights how Israel has gone into Gaza without any clear long term political solution in mind.

    As the war in Ukraine has shown, you can shoot down incoming rockets and drones with SAMs. Problem is the SAMs are quite a lot more costly than the drones and the west does not actually make that many SAMs.

    So in a war of attrition, sooner or later the drone producer is likely to win. Then Iranian CMs and drones could start damaging Israel more seriously. In the past Israel could resort to air strikes, where it has overwhelmingly superiority. But to reach Iran involves flying over several countries with SAMs that will not permit the IAF.

    So sooner or later Israel might run out of SAMs. It then either has to rely on begging from the EU or USA, whose own supplies are not unlimited, or change strategy. Drones alone would not threaten Israel’s survival, but will hurt its economy and quality of life.

    So you can see why Iran is happy to keep using its proxies, not back down, and play the long game.

  10. shellbell @ #1650 Sunday, April 14th, 2024 – 7:38 pm

    https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/strathfield-massacre-how-wade-frankum-killed-seven-and-injured-six-before-turning-gun-on-himself-on-august-17-1991/news-story/0b2dc758349ba16431a2ded805746c3a
    I was moonlighting as
    The last Shopping Centre massacre in Sydney.

    Some parallels

    Thanks. I had forgotten, despite being involved (peripherally). Lots of parallels – but thank Dog there was no gun in this event.

  11. Entropy
    The predicted Götterdammerung was the destruction of the world system.
    With Labor at less than 30 and LNP at 35, even compulsory preferences will not save the duopoly for much longer. The days of coalition are dawning.

    Who will be Brunhilda to burn the place down?

  13. A video clip aired by Iran’s state TV service claiming to show fiery destruction in Israel due to a massive Iranian missile and drone attack is months-old footage of a fire in Chile, a reporter for a fact-finding division of the BBC clarified Sunday. Shayan Sardarizadeh posted screen captures from the video broadcast by Iran alongside shots from the same video circulating on social media earlier this year.

  15. Some interesting quotes from learned people—seems experiences

    *When I die, I want to die like my Grandfather who died peacefully in his sleep. Not screaming like all the passengers in the car which he was driving .*
    ~Will Rogers

    *Never under any circumstance take a sleeping pill and a laxative on the same night.*
    ~Dave Barry

    *Knowledge is knowing a tomato is a fruit; wisdom is not putting it in a fruit salad.*
    ~Miles Kington

    *Why waste your money looking up your family tree? Just go into politics and your opponent will do it for you.*
    ~Mark Twain

    *Have you noticed that all the people in favor of birth control are already born.?*
    ~Benny Hill

    *I asked God for a bike, but I know God doesn’t work that way. So I stole a bike and asked for forgiveness.*
    ~Emo Philips

    *By the time a man realizes that his father was right, he has a son who thinks he’s wrong.*
    ~Charles Wadsworth

    *People who think they know everything are a great annoyance to those of us who do.*
    ~Isaac Asimov

    *Nothing spoils a good story like the arrival of an eyewitness.*
    ~Mark Twain

    *Why is it that when we talk to God we’re said to be praying but when God talks to us we’re schizophrenic?*
    ~Lily Tomlin

    *If it’s sent by ship, then it’s a cargo, if it’s sent by road then it’s a shipment.*
    ~Dave Allen

    *An archaeologist is the best husband a woman can have. The older she gets the more interested he is in her.*
    ~Agatha Christie

    *The man who smiles when things go wrong has thought of someone to blame it on.*
    ~Robert Bloch

    *Always borrow money from a pessimist. He won’t expect it back*.
    ~Oscar Wilde.

  16. Oakeshott Countrysays:
    Sunday, April 14, 2024 at 8:00 pm
    Entropy
    The predicted Götterdammerung was the destruction of the world system.
    With Labor at less than 30 and LNP at 35, even compulsory preferences will not save the duopoly for much longer. The days of coalition are dawning.

    Who will be Brunhilda to burn the place down?
    ==================================================

    For one side that day dawned long ago. The real question is who will be the Rhine Maidens to cleanse and take the curse from the earth. It certainly want be the LNP who hardly have any women and mostly don’t really believe in an earth cursed by climate change anyway.

  17. Lars Von Triersays:
    Sunday, April 14, 2024 at 8:05 pm
    Entropy volunteers to play general Anemi at the end.
    ==============================================

    It appears you volunteered me. As i have no idea who General Anemi is. It may be hard for me to play the part.

  18. ‘Socrates says:
    Sunday, April 14, 2024 at 7:54 pm

    Holden hillbilly/ Tonifa

    “ Holdenhillbilly:

    “Iran’s military chief of staff says that an Israeli retaliation will be met with a bigger Iranian attack than the one overnight.”

    Wow! Iran will respond with an even bigger attack than the one overnight! What do the Iranians have in mind? A giant pea shooter? A massive flour bomb? Some really cruel name-calling? I shudder to think.”
    —————————————————————-

    There are the seeds of a big long term problem in this, that highlights how Israel has gone into Gaza without any clear long term political solution in mind.

    As the war in Ukraine has shown, you can shoot down incoming rockets and drones with SAMs. Problem is the SAMs are quite a lot more costly than the drones and the west does not actually make that many SAMs.

    So in a war of attrition, sooner or later the drone producer is likely to win. Then Iranian CMs and drones could start damaging Israel more seriously. In the past Israel could resort to air strikes, where it has overwhelmingly superiority. But to reach Iran involves flying over several countries with SAMs that will not permit the IAF.

    So sooner or later Israel might run out of SAMs. It then either has to rely on begging from the EU or USA, whose own supplies are not unlimited, or change strategy. Drones alone would not threaten Israel’s survival, but will hurt its economy and quality of life.

    So you can see why Iran is happy to keep using its proxies, not back down, and play the long game.’
    =========================
    Some interesting points here.

    As you note, drones are much cheaper than missiles. But unless they can get through to soft targets (houses, shops, refineries or power stations) they do almost no damage to hardened military infrastructure. Future systems might simply allow those on harmless trajectories to get through and blow themselves up for no effect.

    A further consideration is that both drone and anti-drone technology is in a state of flux. It is highly likely that future anti-drone technology will involve either or both of laser or sonic technologies to either destroy them or destroy their internal guidance systems. What is somewhat surprising is that there has not been a reversion to relatively cheap AA quad barrel systems used highly effectively by the ARVN and the Viet Cong.

    Israel would not have the slightest hesitation in flying over whatever countries to get to Iran. It would use JSFs so to do. The Iran axis did not show the slightest hesitation in flying drones over Jordan, Iraq or Syria. Apparently the Jordanians had some sport knocking down some of the drones.

    The general point about having enough munitions and their cost is always a critical consideration. But this applies to dumb shells as well as to expensive missiles – as Ukraine is demonstrating right now.

  22. Ven @ #1643 Sunday, April 14th, 2024 – 7:27 pm

    I suspect that all these people, who demanded immediate information on perpetrator after attack, were expecting the usual suspects.

    Or alluded to it here by pointing out carefully selected facts about where it occurred and inviting us to draw a particular conclusion from that information.

  23. It is rather worrying how confident Iran is in announcing and following up on its direct attack on Israel like this with over 300 drones and missiles.

    While according to the IDF, 99% of what they threw at them was intercepted and destroyed, what the next move will be is pretty much completely unpredictable from either side.

  26. Further to Cat’s answer, it would not shock me if access to ex Soviet/Russian nukes has been negotiated by Iran in return for Iran helping Russia out with large quantities of drones and ammunition 8n their war.

    A year ago Russia was in trouble but Iranian and North Korean supplies, along with US supplies slowing, has really turned things around for Russia.

  27. Dio

    “ You’d certainly want your intelligence not to be wrong on that one.”

    When has western intelligence on the mid east ever been wrong? Especially about WMDs?

    Boerwar

    I know Israel has AA defences (very effective) and is developing more. But just as Russia in Ukraine has used waves of attack combining drones and CMs, so could Iran. Use the drones to exhaust SAM supplies then follow up with bigger missiles.

  29. This is the detailed Washington Post article referred to in the previous link (I have made it free to read):

    VIENNA — For the past 15 years, the most important clues about Iran’s nuclear program have lain deep underground, in a factory built inside a mountain on the edge of Iran’s Great Salt Desert. The facility, known as Fordow, is the heavily protected inner sanctum of Iran’s nuclear complex and a frequent destination for international inspectors whose visits are meant to ensure against any secret effort by Iran to make nuclear bombs.

    The inspectors’ latest trek, in February, yielded the usual matrices of readings and measurements, couched in the clinical language of a U.N. nuclear watchdog report. But within the document’s dry prose were indications of alarming change.

    https://wapo.st/4aSHBNl

  30. Considering that weapons launched from Iran aimed at Israel have to pass through Iraq, Jordan and Syrian airspace, most of which is controlled by the USA and allies, there’s minimum chance of there being a successful nuclear strike even if Iran was at the stage that North Korea is. And even an unsuccessful strike could result in catastrophic retaliation on Tehran, so I very much doubt nuclear weapons are in play at the moment.

  31. ‘Socrates says:
    Sunday, April 14, 2024 at 9:05 pm

    Dio

    “ You’d certainly want your intelligence not to be wrong on that one.”

    When has western intelligence on the mid east ever been wrong? Especially about WMDs?

    Boerwar

    I know Israel has AA defences (very effective) and is developing more. But just as Russia in Ukraine has used waves of attack combining drones and CMs, so could Iran. Use the drones to exhaust SAM supplies then follow up with bigger missiles.’
    ———————————
    Hamas fired over 5,000 missiles and drones at Israel.

    Yet Israel has not shown the slightest intention of trying to flood Iran, Gaza or Lebanon with drone swarms. The reason, I am guessing, is that missiles and smart bombs do more damage, more certainly and at a cheaper overall cost than do drone swarms.

  32. Kirsdarke @ #1679 Sunday, April 14th, 2024 – 9:17 pm

    Considering that weapons launched from Iran aimed at Israel have to pass through Iraq, Jordan and Syrian airspace, most of which is controlled by the USA and allies, there’s minimum chance of there being a successful nuclear strike even if Iran was at the stage that North Korea is. And even an unsuccessful strike could result in catastrophic retaliation on Tehran, so I very much doubt nuclear weapons are in play at the moment.

    You’re correct. Iran isn’t even at the stage of testing a nuclear weapon if they have one.

  33. Socrates @ #1676 Sunday, April 14th, 2024 – 9:00 pm

    Further to Cat’s answer, it would not shock me if access to ex Soviet/Russian nukes has been negotiated by Iran in return for Iran helping Russia out with large quantities of drones and ammunition 8n their war.

    A year ago Russia was in trouble but Iranian and North Korean supplies, along with US supplies slowing, has really turned things around for Russia.

    Soc.
    After Vanunu, we know the Israelis have unacknowledged nukes, the ability to deliver them by air & no constraint under existing convention – but not without consequence of doing so. Even the Likudniks are not so apocalyptic. It would shock me if Russia gave Iran nukes, as the isotope signature of use would be eminently traceable & anathema to Putin’s pretensions. Like the “lab-origin” of COVID -19 & the Iraq bio-weapons bullshit these factoids live on in the febrile minds of those who need a scapegoat for domestic political reasons.

  37. Regardless, if somehow a nuclear bomb is detonated in Israel, it’s likely most of the world would react in very extreme ways, none of which would be advantageous to Iran.

  38. I could be proved wrong in the next minute torso, but it’s 5 weeks until the week after the budget. If they delay a week till next week (4 weeks since last Newspoll) then its only a 4 week gap between both the last poll and the next. if they release this week, then they have 5 week ago or 3 weeks then 2 weeks

  39. @MABWM

    10pm is usually the cutoff time if Newspoll is set to report. So I guess we’ll find out in the next 20 minutes if it’s happening or not.

  40. ‘Kirsdarke says:
    Sunday, April 14, 2024 at 9:40 pm

    Regardless, if somehow a nuclear bomb is detonated in Israel, it’s likely most of the world would react in very extreme ways, none of which would be advantageous to Iran.’
    ————————————
    If absolutely everyone were 100% rational that would be a serious consideration.

    As we have seen this last little while much of the region is suffering from a serious rationality bypass.

  42. Sad news, first-term Victorian Labor MP for Pakenham Emma Vulin has revealed that she’s been diagnosed with motor neurone disease.

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/victorian-mp-emma-vulin-reveals-motor-neurone-disease-diagnosis-20240414-p5fjrg.html

    Vulin, who has two children and overcame a stroke at the age of 36, has asked for privacy and time to digest the news, but she plans to continue to represent Pakenham.

    She is in her first term after winning the seat in a tight race in the 2022 election.

    “Recently, I received news that I am suffering from motor neurone disease (MND), a degenerative illness which more than 2300 Australians are currently living with,” Vulin wrote on Facebook.

    “The speed at which MND affects people varies for every person. I am in the early stages. I will continue to represent my wonderful community.

    “I have recovered from a significant stroke in the past and have the fight in me to continue being the voice for my community in the Pakenham District.

    “As my family and I process this news, we ask for privacy. We appreciate all the kind messages of support.”

  44. Iran… using footage from Chile… says the attack on Israel has been a success and the operation is now over. 😆
    You can’t make this stuff up! And I didn’t, it was a story in The Guardian.
    All I can add is that Iran must have been made aware of what going on with it was going to mean.
    They better hand the container ship back then.

  47. Meth & mushrooms re: Bondi. And yet there’s still people out there who think drug use is a victimless crime. What a joke.

  48. Iranian Air Defence is going to be as twitchy as a meth head on a downer.

    The biggest problem for Israel is that they can’t get their tankers close enough. They can easily get their fighter-bombers through Syrian air space. Iraqi air space is a little more complicated but it appears from the ease that the Iranian drones got through it that the US are not actively involved there so that shouldn’t be a problem either.

    The question really is where do the IDF jets tank? Have the IDF maximised internal fuel and external fuel capability? Do they use long range standoff missiles?

    They also don’t publicly have anything like the F-18 Growlers, but they probably do have F-15 with a similar capability – really needs to be a two seater aircraft.

    They were able to hit the Osirak site in Iraq a couple of decades ago. Their capabilities have only improved and they would have been planning a strike on Iranian nuclear sites for years so I expect it will be successful if they decide to do it.

    I just hope no aircrew are captured.

  49. Thank goodness for Open Justice in Australia. We can see what Justice Lee is going to say and it can’t be spun by the time it gets out to the public by Lehrmann or his media minders.

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