The fortnightly Essential Research poll has Labor recovering a lead on the 2PP+ measure after a distinctly poor result last time, with Labor up four to 48% and the Coalition down four to 46%. However, Labor remains at its lowest ebb for the term of 29% on the primary vote, with the Coalition down two to 34%, the Greens up three 14%, and One Nation down one to 6%. For both measures, undecided is steady at 6%.
A regular question on the economic outlook finds an eight point drop since February in the expectation that conditions will get worse over the next twelve months to 48% and a two point rise in expectations of improvement to 21%. Further questions focus on housing, including a finding that 51% support removing “tax concessions like negative gearing and capital gains tax discounts for property investors”, with only 19% opposed, and 40% wanting lower house prices against 15% for higher and 45% for “stabilised”. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from 1165.
The Essential poll also asked about the two specifics of the government’s deportation bill that was blocked in the Senate last week, with 51% support for one-year prison terms for non-citizens who refused to co-operate with deportation against 17% opposed, and 50% support for blacklisting countries that refuse to accept deportees from further visa applications against 14% opposed. However, a poll published yesterday by YouGov found only 31% support for the government having “the power to ban all visa applications from a particular country” when the alternative option was to “treat all visa applications on an individual merit basis regardless of country origin”, support for which was 60%. The YouGov poll was conducted March 29 to April 6 from a sample of 1517.
The weekly Roy Morgan poll contradicts Essential Research in finding the Coalition leading for first time since its first poll for the year, with a 51-49 Labor lead last week making way for a 50.5-49.5 lead to the Coalition. The primary votes are Labor 29.5% (down half), Coalition 38% (up half), Greens 13.5% (down two) and One Nation 6% (up two-and-a-half). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1731.
The Australian Institute has a uComms poll for Saturday’s Cook by-election, which unsurprisingly finds Simon Kennedy assured of retaining the seat for the Liberals. After distribution of a forced-response follow-up for the initially undecided, the primary votes are 52.8% for Kennedy, 17.3% for the Greens, 11.7% for independent Roger Woodward, 8.0% for Animal Justice, 5.7% for Sustainable Australia and 4.4% for the Libertarian Party, with Kennedy leading the Greens 65-35 on two-party preferred. There were also numerous attitudinal questions, including a finding that 51.2% rated former member Scott Morrison’s legacy as prime minister as good against 43.6% for poor. The poll was conducted March 28 from a sample of 914.
“… 51.2% rated former member Scott Morrison’s legacy as prime minister as good against 43.6% for poor.”
Sydney’s northern beaches may be the ‘Insular Peninsula’ … but down in the Shire they’re in a parallel universe.
“Essential Research finds Labor taking the lead, Roy Morgan does the opposite …”
After the herding phenomenon that culminated in the 2019 polling debacle, I guess it’s reassuring to observe fluctuations in the major polls. Polls are gonna do what polls do.
Meanwhile, the press pundits will persist in pontificating on every wrinkle of a point up or down within the margin of error.
And the beat goes on
Yes, the beat goes on …
I think there is very little chance that the hostages held by HAMAS are still alive.
Unless there has been proof of life we are not being told about, and I see no reason for the Isrealis to withhold such evidence, then they are dead.
I am a cynic, so I believe this conflict will resurface every 16 or 20 years, I.e. when a new wave of kids get of military age, on each side, for at least another century.
Climate change may throw a spanner in the works though. Each one may be forced to co-operate with the other.
All over the world we may have to stop killing each other just to save each other.
#weatheronPB
Cool air moves the trees,
and the empty sky glows with,
anticipation.
No end to trouble at Boeing… Dreamliner issues… again.. “ not an immediate … issue”.
Put that in fine print on your ticket!
This is what you get when you merge with McDonald Douglas that built plans where doors also fell off ..
From the NYT..
Mr. Lewis said Boeing had done extensive testing on the Dreamliner and “determined that this is not an immediate safety of flight issue.”
“Our engineers are completing complex analysis to determine if there may be a long-term fatigue concern for the fleet in any area of the airplane,” Mr. Lewis said. “This would not become an issue for the in-service fleet for many years to come, if ever, and we are not rushing the team so that we can ensure that analysis is comprehensive.”
The Middle Ages are firmly upon the US.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2024/04/09/arizona-abortion-supreme-court-ruling/
Lib/nats combined primary vote of 34% would be a disaster
Still think they are around the same level as 2022 federal election which is not that much better 35.7%
One Notion up 2 1/2!?! Ye gods!
Another Australian export to the US that I’m sure many are happy to see the back of.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/style/power/2024/04/09/nick-adams-alpha-male-trump-campaign-surrogate/
As for his remarks about Taylor Swift. My god. What a goose!
Simon Millman, WA Labor Member for Mount Lawley, is the latest to announce he will not contest the 2025 election, electing instead to return to the legal profession.
Two new US polls have Biden edging ahead..
WASHINGTON, April 9 (Reuters) – U.S. President Joe Biden has marginally widened his lead over Donald Trump ahead of the November presidential election as the Republican candidate prepares for the start of the first of four upcoming criminal trials, a new Reuters/Ipsos poll found.
Some 41% of registered voters in the five-day poll, which closed on Monday, said they would vote for Biden, a Democrat, if the election were held today, compared with 37% who picked former President Trump. That 4 point lead was up from a 1 point lead Biden held in a Reuters/Ipsos poll in March.
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-has-marginal-1-point-lead-over-trump-reutersipsos-poll-shows-2024-03-14/
https://issuesinsights.com/2024/04/08/independents-third-party-candidates-loom-as-election-deciders-in-2024-ii-tipp-poll/
bidon is not a very strong president but better than trump
And The Economist poll aggregator….
https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-2024-election/trump-biden-polls?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
Um, Taylor Swift is worth more than Travis Kelce. 😐
I’d rewrite Nads as Numpty Against Democracy Sloganeer
😆
Confessions @ #9 Wednesday, April 10th, 2024 – 6:38 am
Sure – but on the other hand you have to hand it to someone who can call a room full of Americans ‘nads’ (which is of course Aussie slang for ‘gonads’ or ‘testicles’) without them even realizing he is satirizing them.
The guy has ‘nads 🙂
Australia seems to be quiet on aid for Ukraine. I hope we are not reacting to presure from China.
We have old stuff we can send to Ukraine but we are not.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
Analysis
Viceregal controversies aren’t new, but Sam Mostyn’s appointment took the outrage to new levels, writes a fired-up Annabel Crabbe, She gives Janet Albrechtsen a good serve here,
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-04-10/sam-mostyn-governor-general-viceregal-drama/103686858
Michaela Whitbourn reports that a senior Australian Federal Police officer recorded an allegation that Brittany Higgins “may have been drugged” on the night she alleges she was raped in Parliament House by Bruce Lehrmann. This came from her lawyers in a bombshell submission in Lehrmann’s defamation case. Justice Lee had requested a submission from Ms Higgins.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/higgins-makes-submissions-to-court-as-judge-sets-fresh-date-for-lehrmann-decision-20240409-p5fiih.html
Liability, imputations and truth – Amada Meade outlines what the judge will consider in his Bruce Lehrmann defamation trial verdict.
https://www.theguardian.com/law/2024/apr/10/bruce-lehrmann-defamation-trial-verdict-decision-today-network-ten-brittany-higgins-ntwnfb
The SMH exposes some of the toxic culture that has been existing at Seven, Not a good look.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/new-seven-expenses-affair-rocks-sunrise-top-network-executives-20240408-p5fi6w.html
Miriam Webster reports that The Home Affairs Minister has spoken frankly about tasking Stephanie Foster with transforming the department’s tattered reputation, after years of poor staff feedback, and the sacking of its former boss. Clare O’Neil said her “first request” to Ms Foster, upon her appointment in November 2023, had been to address well-publicised cultural issues within Home Affairs, which public servants have ranked as the worst department to work for.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/8585583/clare-oneil-tasked-home-affairs-boss-with-reforming-culture/?cs=14329
Labor’s move to abolish the council providing independent oversight of public record-keeping will further entrench Victoria’s reputation for secrecy over transparency, argues the editorial in The Age.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/bad-for-transparency-bad-for-democracy-the-bill-the-state-government-should-drop-or-change-20240409-p5fid6.html
“Migrants – what are they good for?” A lot, actually, declares Shane Wright who explains his position.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/migrants-what-are-they-good-for-a-lot-actually-20240409-p5fiic.html
“How about this time we try, just try, to report on budgets and tax differently?”, urges Peter Martin.
https://theconversation.com/how-about-this-time-we-try-just-try-to-report-on-budgets-and-tax-differently-227353
Penny Wong has signalled that the Albanese government is prepared to recognise a Palestinian state as part of an international push to end the Israel-Hamas war, in a major policy shift that has sparked fury in Australia’s Jewish community and threatens to place Australia at odds with the US. Ben Packham reports that Senator Wong told the ANU’s National Security College on Tuesday that peace could only come with a two-state solution, with “a Palestinian state alongside the state of Israel”.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/penny-wong-backs-palestinian-statehood-as-path-to-peace/news-story/d325b3a07a8e80cf3086f46c28cf3e3c?amp=
Defence boss turned weapons company director Mark Binskin led the ‘Keystone Cops’ task-force associated with Afghan war crimes cover-ups. The Albanese Government has now appointed him to “scrutinise” the Israeli Defence Force “investigation” into the killings of Australian aid worker Zomi Frankcom and her World Central Kitchen colleagues in Gaza last week. Former army officer Stuart McCarthy reports.
https://michaelwest.com.au/mcbride-binskin-keystone-cops-zomi-frankcom-investigation/
Housing in Australia is a bin fire – and desperate people will buy anything, writes Peter Lewis pointing to the results of the Essential poll.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2024/apr/09/australia-housing-crisis-guardian-essential-poll
A disillusioned Michael Pascoe says that there is regular reporting of the shrinking primary vote of the major parties almost as if it is a surprise. T\He says there is no surprise at all when substance is repeatedly ditched in favour of political theatre, when stunts and outrage are the common currency instead of principles-based policy.
https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/finance/2024/04/10/pascoe-political-theatre-swamps-substance
The faults in Australia’s childcare model have been obvious for years. It’s time for a sweeping overhaul, argues Matt Wade. He says that while Labor’s recent boost to subsidies has improved the affordability of childcare services, at least in the short term, the sector faces two other big challenges: accessibility and quality.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/costly-childcare-s-a-slippery-slope-so-why-haven-t-we-learnt-20240409-p5fify.html
Vice Admiral David Johnston’s status quo promotion ADF chief is a bad mistake from Anthony Albanese, argues Greg Sheridan who says, “The Albanese government, and especially Defence Minister Richard Marles, can’t have it both ways. They can’t tell us one minute that there are endemic cultural problems in the entire Defence establishment – civilian and military – and that this has led to wasted money, horrendous delays in projects and a gravely sub-optimal performance, and then go ahead and reward, promote and shower praise on everyone who has overseen that culture over the past decade.”
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/vice-admiral-david-johnstons-status-quo-promotion-adf-chief-is-a-bad-mistake-from-anthony-albanese/news-story/5d14969c7e33ce3a7581a91a2f865f13?amp=
Competition regulator Gina Cass-Gottlieb will get the power to block serial acquisitions and those that entrench the market power of big players, but Treasurer Jim Chalmers rejected a “presumptive ban” on mergers. Ronald Mizen tells us that the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission chairwoman has pushed for a regime that effectively rejected mergers unless the parties could prove the deal was unlikely to substantially lessen competition.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/chalmers-merger-crackdown-to-shake-up-m-and-a-20240409-p5fif9
And Hannah Wotton explains the three big changes to merger laws and why they matter.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/the-three-big-changes-to-merger-laws-and-why-they-matter-20240409-p5fig1
Australia’s labour force is changing significantly under Labor and citizens are benefiting greatly. The value of machinery, transport equipment and other manufactured goods exported from Australia last year was at an all-time high of $44.9 billion. That’s up an impressive 23.1% on the same exports two years ago, writes Alan Austin.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/manufacturing-and-construction-jobs-created-as-australia-defies-global-trends,18489
While Woolworths and Coles point the finger at the behaviour of other big retailers, it’s a brain twister as to how giving suppliers more help will benefit customers at the checkout, says Elizabeth Knight.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/everyone-seems-to-be-a-victim-in-the-supermarket-review-20240409-p5fihj.html
NSW public schools will have their budgets slashed by up to $148 million this year as thousands of deputy and assistant principals are forced back into classroom teaching roles to help deal with chronic staffing shortages. Lucy Carroll reports that in a letter to principals on Tuesday afternoon, NSW Education Department secretary Murat Dizdar said school budgets would be reduced by 1.25 per cent, and any accumulated unspent discretionary funds frozen over the next year. And the gap widens further.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/school-budgets-slashed-by-148-million-as-deputies-forced-back-to-classroom-20240409-p5fijn.html
Australia’s public schools will miss out on $13bn in the next five years if accounting tricks are maintained in upcoming funding agreements, a major report has found. The National School Resourcing Board’s annual review, tabled in parliament last week, showed government schools lost more than $2bn in 2022 because of a Morrison-era loophole that allows states and territories to claim up to 4% of public school funding on non-school expenditures.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/apr/10/scott-morrison-era-accounting-tricks-to-cost-public-schools-13bn-over-next-five-years
Alexandra Smith tells us that the NSW government will rethink its water security policy – including doubling the capacity of Sydney’s desalination plant and keeping Warragamba Dam below capacity – to guarantee the city’s drinking water supply while mitigating flood risk.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/the-plan-to-save-our-drinking-water-without-flooding-sydney-20240409-p5fida.html
Matt O’Sullivan tells us that the traffic chaos associated with the Rozelle interchange is not ‘going to improve any time soon and that a number of councils are at boiling point.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/sydney-mayor-fears-there-are-no-plans-to-fix-rozelle-interchange-chaos-20240409-p5fieh.html
In an interesting legal development, the parents of a Michigan school shooter have each been sentenced to between 10 and 15 years in prison for their role in an attack that killed four students in 2021 in a case that has broken new ground as the US seeks to tackle its years-long epidemic of school shootings.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/apr/09/michigan-school-shooter-parents-sentencing
Yesterday the Arizona supreme court ruled to let a law banning almost all abortions in the state go into effect, a decision that could curtail abortion access in the US south-west and could make Arizona one of the biggest battlefields in the 2024 electoral fight over abortion rights.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/apr/09/arizona-supreme-court-abortion-decision
Trump’s latest and desperate attempt to delay criminal trial in hush-money case has failed.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/apr/09/trump-hush-money-trial-delay-rejected
Cartoon Corner
David Pope
Alan Moir
David Rowe
Matt Golding
Andrew Dyson
Glen Le Lievre
Mark Knight
Spooner should be in hospital!
From the US
Cook is unusual in that it is a coastal metropolitan seat with the political outlook of a regional seat. Teals would do poorly in Cook just as Labor does. The god people of Cook would vote in Donald Duck as their MP without hesitation as long as he was running for the Liberal Party.
Rachel Maddow dissects pathetic media coverage of Trump’s abortion video
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/4/9/2234265/-Rachel-Maddow-dissects-pathetic-media-coverage-of-Trump-s-abortion-video?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_2&pm_medium=web
”
Scottsays:
Wednesday, April 10, 2024 at 6:24 am
Lib/nats combined primary vote of 34% would be a disaster
Still think they are around the same level as 2022 federal election which is not that much better 35.7%
”
No they are not.
A ALP 29% PV is minority LNP government territory as you have witnessed in Tasmania election.
Ven says:
Wednesday, April 10, 2024 at 7:52 am
”
Scottsays:
Wednesday, April 10, 2024 at 6:24 am
Lib/nats combined primary vote of 34% would be a disaster
Still think they are around the same level as 2022 federal election which is not that much better 35.7%
”
No they are not.
A ALP 29% PV is minority LNP government territory as you have witnessed in Tasmania election.
——————————
Tasmanian state election is completely a different system to federal election
If the federal Liberal party received 37% in primary vote on federal election day, they would win 0 seats in Tasmania
If the federal Lib/nats combined primary vote was 37% all over Australia including QLD
The lib/nats would be depleted to around 40 seats
Oliver is not a drowning man
He’s a tumbler
Federal Lib/nats seats are under threat not only Labor , the teals, greens and other independents
with the federal lib/nats combined primary vote in mid to low 30’s
Labor may lose and also will likely pick up enough seats they lose to remain in majority
Thanks BK!!
Ven
Labor or the Lib/nats at federal level are unlikely to be averaging over 40% in the primary vote for a while until the voting public decides that independents , teals mainly are not doing what they were hoping, or making matter worse in parliament
Labor primaries in the 20’s. Wow…
That sinking feeling got a hold on me.
The budget better be one for the ages.
10 years of Dutton just around the corner.
Kristina got 25% primary in 2011 in NSW – the record is in sight!!
Mundo
If the lib/nats combined primary is 34% , Dutton would be lucky to remain as leader by october this year yet till the 2025 federal election
Libs/nats are in from 57-43 behind.Fed Labor has put them in the game .
Remember when Albo said the adults are in the room/government about his gov in the past year it’s been a shite rest of stuff ups,bungled policy,failing ministers and incompetence in basic governance.
From 3 month welfare/pension application processing waits to cutting aerial surveillance in the north by 20 percent its sheer vote damaging stupidity kids stuff!
Greens maybe tempted to hurt labor on pref deals to bend labor to their will.
I think Labor need to re-assess their values and what they stand for.
Their advisors and backroom power brokers are killing the party.
It hard to tell where it is at ,when the 3 federal by-elections seats , are not going the same way as the opinion polls
Where opinion polling showing Labor losing ground , Lib/nats slight improve is not showing up in
by elections
Aston (former Lib safe seat) – 8.3% swing to federal labor government
Fadden (Very Safe LNP seat) – federal Labor government around the same level as 2022 federal election
Dunkley(50-50 seat) – 1% swing to federal Labor government
Dunkley by-election 2pp swing to the Liberal party , was due to one nation and Uap not having candidate
I foresee the Liberal Party boosters celebrating the coming Cook by election triumph.
The proof that Dutton’s tactics are resonating in the heartland.
I’d advise Labor to shift their efforts more towards looking after household CoL rather than their multinational and investment sponsors interests.
The latest consumer sentiment ratings coninues to have Australia deeply in the doldrums.
All due to the interest rate rises over the past 18 months.
That is then reflected in support for the govt of the day.
The minute interest rate goes down, govt sentiment will improve. It is that simple.
Despite high interest rates, housing is expensive and that flows onto rental costs etc.
That is the elephant currently in the room.
Hopefully the budget will include more money for Medicare
GP costs are also affecting consumer sentiment
Scott @ #34 Wednesday, April 10th, 2024 – 8:29 am
Exasctly. But the Bedwetters and the Hard Ons on either side would beg to differ.
There have been analyses done about why the polling differentiates so markedly from real world results and the general consensus has come down on, you can believe the polls the closer you get to the election. Also, by looking at who answers polls these days, or who is at home when the Morgan poll person knocks on the door. A lot of young people don’t answer the phone unless the know who’s there, think email is for old people (I have disabused my Millennial of that idea) and don’t even answer the door unless they know who is there or it’s a pre-arranged meeting.
So, polls indicate a vibe but the truth comes out at our compulsory elections.
Victoria, you are on the money.
Victoria @ #37 Wednesday, April 10th, 2024 – 8:38 am
And turning that around is like turning around the Titanic. Though political opportunists will always seek to look at it through a short term lens.
Business confidence is holding up though.
Optional Preferential Voting (OPV) should be introduced. It might give Labor a wake up call that it must EARN Greens voters preferences rather than expect them by default.
Labor primary with a 2 at the front seems to be locked in. Most of the polls are saying the same.
Albanese and Wong must be worried about Labor’s dwindling support, and are now manufacturing fake concern about Gaza. I don’t think any Muslim community leaders will invite him to Eid celebrations, that’s for sure.
Phillip Coorey
Political editor
Apr 9, 2024 – 5.52pm
Anthony Albanese has further dampened the hopes of those looking for welfare increases and other handouts in the May budget, saying it was important that fiscal policy matched monetary policy to see off inflation.
It does appear that Albo and Chalmers have another surplus and subsequent interest rate cuts front of mind. Plus the revamped tax cuts coming in from July 1.
Building up a war chest for the March/May 2025 pre-election Budget to ‘bring home the bacon’.
I don’t think Australia will go out on a limb and recognise a Palestinian state.
I think this is a shot across the bows.
If things improve after midway this year , the federal lib/nats and their propaganda media are dreading and will also be dreading
There still another federal Labor government budget to come in 2025 before the federal election
Clare O’Neil said her “first request” to Ms Foster, upon her appointment in November 2023, had been to address well-publicised cultural issues within Home Affairs, which public servants have ranked as the worst department to work for.
_____________________
O’Neil needs to take a good look in the mirror.
Reducing public servants to tears is a massive cultural issue.
This is a very good article outlining the current retail and small to medium retail business environment:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-04-10/retail-insolvencies-cost-of-living-pressures-business-support/103684496
Rewi says:
Wednesday, April 10, 2024 at 8:48 am
I don’t think Australia will go out on a limb and recognise a Palestinian state.
I think this is a shot across the bows.
_______________________________________________
Of course it is. Australia has, quite rightly in our national interest, stayed with the herd of similar western countries.