Three new federal voting intention polls have dropped in short order, including the monthly Resolve Strategic poll for Nine Newspapers, which seems to have lost most of the Labor lean that distinguished it from other pollsters before the start of the year. Both major parties are down two points on the primary vote from the February result, putting Labor at 32% and the Coalition at 35%, with the Greens up two to 13% and One Nation down one to 5%. Anthony Albanese’s combined very good and good rating is down three to 38%, with his combined poor and very poor up two to 49%, while Peter Dutton is respectively steady at 36% and down one to 44%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister shifting out from 39-32 to 40-30. In the absence of a two-party preferred measure from Resolve Strategic, my own favoured method of calculating one from flows at the 2022 election (which lumps together independents and all parties other than the majors, the Greens, One Nation and the United Australia Party into a single category) gets a result of about 52.8-47.2 in Labor’s favour, compared with a bit over 52-48 last time. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Sunday from a sample of 1610.
The Guardian reports the fortnightly Essential Research has what is by some distance Labor’s worst result on voting intention this term, with the Coalition opening a lead of 50% to 44% on the pollster’s 2PP+ measure, the balance being undecided. This compares with a Labor lead of 48% to 47% last time and a reversed result the time before, the latter being the only previous occasion when the Coalition led this term. We will have to wait upon the release of the full report later today for the primary votes. Despite this, The Guardian report relates little change on a monthly leadership on which respondents rate the leaders on a scale of one to ten, with 32% (down one) giving Anthony Albanese a rating of seven to ten and 35% (steady) a rating of zero to three. Peter Dutton had 31% at the top of the range, down one, and 34% at the bottom, up one.
UPDATE: The primary votes are Labor 29% (down three), Coalition 36% (up one), Greens 11% (steady) and One Nation 7% (down one), with undecided up one to 6%.
Further questions relate to campaign finance reform and the state of Australian democracy, recording a drop from 46% to 32% in satisfaction with the latter since immediately after the 2022 election and dissatisfaction up from 18% to 31%. There was strong support for truth-in-advertising laws (73%), real-time reporting of donations (64%) and donations caps (61%), though the related proposal of greater public funding found only 29% support with 35% opposed.
The weekly Roy Morgan poll is also less than stellar for Labor, recording a tie on two-party preferred after they led 51.5-48.5 result last time. However, this is more to do with a weaker flow of respondent-allocated preferences than changes on the primary vote, on which Labor is steady at 31.5%, the Coalition up one to 38%, the Greens up one-and-a-half to 14% and One Nation down one to 4.5%. My own measure of a result based on 2022 election preferences has Labor leading 51.5-48.5, which is little different from last time.
We also have from The Australian further results from the latest Newspoll showing 51% support for fixed four-year parliamentary terms with 37% opposed.
Mostly interested
Frankly. likely voters is a bullshit metric.
The polls have been inaccurate since Obama days.
Irenesays:
Thursday, March 28, 2024 at 11:48 am
Boerwar hatred of The Greens is indicated in increased silliness in his comments :
“The Greens would, for once wholeheartedly support the consequences of a war.”
Any party or individuals criticising Labor gets a blast from him.
The rants are pretty insane; like how the Greens want to destroy everything and anything, to the point that LNP supporters in the threat agree with him. And the very nice moment, commenting that the LNP and Greens will always team up against Labor (ignoring the long history of Labor and LNP working together.)
Rick Wilson on twitter
For our MAGA friends
Our Father, who art in Trump Tower,
Hallowed be Thy Name.
Thy kingdom come, Thy deals be done,
In America as it is in Mar-a-Lago.
Give us this day our daily bread,
Let us pay his debts
And cover the bills to his creditors.
And lead us not into bad deals,
But deliver us from losers.
For Thine is the kingdom,
The power, and the glory, forever.
Let’s make it great again.
Amen.
Socrates at 11.52 am
The photo of Marles at that Murdoch link shows him looking like he or his family have just been robbed.
“Victoria says:
Thursday, March 28, 2024 at 11:58 am
Queensland Alabama? Nah…..”
Not as many banjos?
Victoria @ #751 Thursday, March 28th, 2024 – 12:00 pm
That is patently untrue, I’ll dig up some references later this arvo if I get the time.
Victoriasays:
Thursday, March 28, 2024 at 12:00 pm
Mostly interested
Frankly. likely voters is a bullshit metric.
The polls have been inaccurate since Obama days.
—————-
The polling was accurate in 16 and 20 but the problem in the 2016 election wasn’t the polling but there wasn’t enough polls in key states so the result wasn’t picked up.
The type of providers who buy in to the NDIS. Who decide how much funding their client needs, and pocket a very good profit.
From 9News: Bill Shorten has vowed to investigate a disability provider who claims the National Disability Insurance Scheme will partially cover the cost of a 1980s-themed, three-night cruise for participants.
The company is associated with a man who is already being investigated by the competition watchdog for falsely claiming the Disability Minister would be the headline act at a gala event in Parliament last week.
Just give every disabled person a few million dollars and not bother with the NDIS.
Mexicanbeemer
The polls only became more accurate within days of the voting taking place.
Clinton lead In all the polls until the 11th hour in 2016.
Mexicanbeemer
What a silly thing to say. Funding is allocated and paid for as it is needed and utilised.
Foster to Ley:
Oh, Sussanah, dontcha cry fo’ me,
cos ah’m gone t’ Alabama
wit’ a banjo on my knee
Victoriasays:
Thursday, March 28, 2024 at 12:14 pm
Mexicanbeemer
What a silly thing to say. Funding is allocated and paid for as it is needed and utilised.
—————
Yep i am being silly.
I didn’t say that the Greens want a war. They know that their Light Mobile Force would be treated like the IDF is treating Hamas. Not even the Greens are silly enough to want that!
I was merely pointing out that the consequences of a war between China and the US would be exactly sorts of consequences that the Greens want to happen.
My notes on the war’s likely outcomes includes the wholesale destruction of industries that the Greens want to destroy, a drastic reduction in emissions and a drastic fall in the population. Such a war would take ICE vehicles off the roads by the millions. Homes left vacant by Australians fleeing Australia would most likely house the homeless and cause rents to crash. Further, it would instantly solve all our refugee issues except for one: the large number of Australian asylum seekers washing up on distant shores.
All this would be good for biodiversity which the Greens would support and would get the Greens to their target of Zero net Forty which they would also support.
My observation about the Greens is that they all WANT all these outcomes but would prefer it not to be a consequence of war but a consequence of war or a consequence of legislation and regulation.
The horribly reality that no-one is facing here, least of all the Greens is that there is no easy ride to zero net anything. Let alone zero net forty.
The Albanese Government is hemorrhaging public support because it isn’t unequivocally on the people’s side. It needs to mobilise the immense power that the federal government has to improve people’s lives in obvious ways.
Implement some version of Cameron Murray’s HouseMate program. The federal governments pays to develop land that is currently unused or under-used for housing, and then sells the properties to first home buyers. Apartments in inner-city suburbs, town houses in middle suburbs, and freestanding houses in outer suburbs, small towns, and rural and remote areas.
Implement some version of Bill Mitchell’s Job Guarantee program. The federal government, instead of paying job service providers to provide pointless workshops and meetings to the unemployed, funds jobs directly for the unemployed. The jobs would be administered at the community level, would be a good fit for the job-seeker’s abilities and interests, and would be socially useful in some way. The kinds of jobs that could be created would be limited mostly by our imagination of what a paid job can be. Jobs that involve social care, environmental care, community cohesion, and artistic and cultural output would be great candidates for this scheme.
Lift all income support payments to $90 a day for a single person ($630 a week, $1260 a fortnight). It shouldn’t matter whether the person is receiving the Age Pension, the Disability Support Pension, a carer’s payment, a student allowance, a job-seeker’s allowance, or an allowance for temporary illness or injury. All income support payments should be above the Henderson Report poverty line, which is about $90 a day for a single person.
Eradicate out-of-pocket fees for pharmaceuticals, medical devices, and medical consumables. The federal government already subsidizes these things. It may as well cover the full cost and put in place whatever contractual arrangements and domestic production capabilities are needed to assure Australia’s supplies of these essentials.
Fund the state and territory governments to upgrade and expand the public health care systems. Public health care should cover everything – preventative care, health promotion, primary care, secondary care, hospital care, dental care, GPs, medical specialists, allied health practitioners. Build up the capabilities of the public health systems so that eventually few people choose to pay out-of-pocket fees to see private practitioners.
Fund the state and territory governments to upgrade and expand the public education systems, including early childhood education. All schools should receive at least the Gonski School Resource Standard level of funding.
Make university and TAFE programs free, forgive all outstanding student debts, and increase the number of secure research and teaching jobs at university and TAFE.
Fund the state, territory, and local governments to make cities and towns more liveable. Plenty of infrastructure for pedestrians, cyclists, and scooter users. More parks and facilities for community sport. More facilities for artistic, cultural, and community events. Public transport that is frequent, well-connected, comfortable, and free.
Irene is deflecting from yet another post in which she praises Xi’s China and sinks the slipper into a democratic country.
Spot the pattern.
Oh, now Nicholas up for a bit of fomenting moral panic. Joins Credlin, Bolt, Murdoch, Dutton et al.
Once you set aside the culture wars bullshit and the moral panic smoke and mirrors, the next election will be decided by the hip pocket nerve and not by the fulminations of Irene or Nicholas, however earnest.
The reason the Albanese Government is traveling well and is set to pick up a second term is because wages are up, inflation is down, three quarters of a million people are in jobs that did not exist two years ago. Interest rates are due to go down by the end of the year. Australians will get a hefty tax cut in July. All this has been done with competent management by way of budget surpluses. Despite the histrionics, the median wealth of Australians is going up not down.
Further, the Albanese has addressed various bleeding sores of the Morrison Government: closing the gap, corruption, treating women properly and climate action.
Boerwarsays:
Thursday, March 28, 2024 at 12:16 pm
I didn’t say that the Greens want a war. They know that their Light Mobile Force would be treated like the IDF is treating Hamas. Not even the Greens are silly enough to want that!
I was merely pointing out that the consequences of a war between China and the US would be exactly sorts of consequences that the Greens want to happen.
My notes on the war’s likely outcomes includes the wholesale destruction of industries that the Greens want to destroy, a drastic reduction in emissions and a drastic fall in the population. Such a war would take ICE vehicles off the roads by the millions. Homes left vacant by Australians fleeing Australia would most likely house the homeless and cause rents to crash. Further, it would instantly solve all our refugee issues except for one: the large number of Australian asylum seekers washing up on distant shores.
All this would be good for biodiversity which the Greens would support and would get the Greens to their target of Zero net Forty which they would also support.
My observation about the Greens is that they all WANT all these outcomes but would prefer it not to be a consequence of war but a consequence of war or a consequence of legislation and regulation.
The horribly reality that no-one is facing here, least of all the Greens is that there is no easy ride to zero net anything. Let alone zero net forty.
… are you seriously suggesting that the Greens would be happy with a major conflict (and the consequences) between the big 2 superpowers of the early 21st century?
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2024/mar/28/australias-economy-has-become-a-young-people-screwing-machine-so-how-do-we-unscrew-ourselves
Lordbain
Can’t you read? I stated specifically that the Greens do Not want war.
I was making the obvious point that many of the consequences of a major war are exactly the same consequences that follow from the Greens stated policies. These include the destruction of whole industries, towns and regional economies.
You might not like that embarrassing reality.
So do stop deflecting.
Boerwar
Yep. It’s the economy stupid.
Mexicanbeemer
Cheers.
I would have thought that all the Millennials have to do is to wait for the mums and dads to die which is happening at an increasingly satisfactory rate.
But I suppose the Millenials will think it unfair that some Millennials will do better out of inheritances than others so will object to those Millennials being twice-screwed.
Or not, as the case may be.
Goodoh.
A billion dollars from the Albanese Government to help build Australia’s renewable industries and to increase our economy’s complexity.
I can just see Shoebridge whinging and raging that the Greens will delay the package in the Senate because… he wants to create more moral panic. He will have Dutton’s earnest support because it will not help build a single nuclear power station.
Lynchpin at 11.17 am
“Perceptions of Albanese’s problems are not new. Howard faced the same scrutiny and questions during his first term. He also almost lost to Beazley, remember. It wasn’t until Howard won a second term and got past the GST that his own confidence went up along with the confidence of those who voted for him.”
Correct. Howard’s honeymoon as PM lasted only a year. He was mostly behind in his second term, especially after the GST. See old graphs at:
His big bounce in late 2001 as the election approached came not from the mean and tricky Tampa charade, but mainly from the atmosphere created by the 9/11 attacks. See:
https://theconversation.com/2001-polls-in-review-september-11-influenced-election-outcome-far-more-than-tampa-incident-112139
Observers still thought Howard was a very dominant leader in autumn 2006. For one reading see:
https://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/download/media/pressrel/09YI6/upload_binary/09yi67.pdf;fileType=application%2Fpdf#search=%22media/pressrel/09YI6%22 (paper by Prof James Walter)
Walter quotes Hugh McKay’s observation, reported by M. Grattan in The Age on 21 Feb 2006:
‘Indeed, according to Hugh MacKay, Howard has made people relaxed and comfortable “… by the process of them becoming disenchanted and disengaged from politics. People are no longer engaged in the big issues. It’s really a case of leave it to him, leave it to the Government … They’ve become literally and metaphorically backyard obsessed … We’ve become a more fearful society—because it’s a more fearful world. … By explicit and implicit messages, he’s allowed us to become a less compassionate and more prejudiced society.”‘
Walter’s paper was given to a conference in Canberra in early March 2006. Few if any attendees there expected that, within 20 months, Howard would become only the second Australian PM to lose his seat.
Victoria @ #755 Thursday, March 28th, 2024 – 12:02 pm
They are truly the biggest suckers in the world. Except maybe for the Russian people, who let Putin and his cronies siphon off all the wealth that should be going to them. And all they get in return is a plentiful supply of cheap vodka. 😐
David Shoebridge is the Manichean Candidate.
The type of provider in the NDIS. Who decide how much funding their client needs, and pocket a very good profit.
From 9News: Bill Shorten has vowed to investigate a disability provider who claims the National Disability Insurance Scheme will partially cover the cost of a 1980s-themed, three-night cruise for participants.
The company is associated with a man who is already being investigated by the competition watchdog for falsely claiming the Disability Minister would be the headline act at a gala event in Parliament last week.
Mexicanbeemersays:
Thursday, March 28, 2024 at 12:11 pm
Just give every disabled person a few million dollars and not bother with the NDIS.
———
A much better NDIS policy. We know providers often charge 3 x as much to the taxpayer for a physiotherapy visit than a non NDIS person pays.
Spoken by Disability Recipient on The Drum. A good ABC program, should not have been axed. Likely this or more for all services and goods wheelchairs etc provided.
No wonder the NDIS costs us over $40billion in 2023/2024 and growing annually. More than Medicare. This is a disgrace.
Dr. D/l:
“Walter’s paper was given to a conference in Canberra in early March 2006. Few if any attendees there expected that, within 20 months, Howard would become only the second Australian PM to lose his seat.”
— – – – – – – – – – – – – —
Something similar was found in the U.S. with road safety initiatives, road fatalities aren’t reduced, for the simple reason that motorist become more complacent.
I think the same may have been found for Workplace Safety initiatives?
– – — – – – – — – – – – – –
In other words, there was absolutely no reason to boot the Howard Government
on performance, it was just that from about 2000 on to 2007 things were so good that more people thought that Labor couldn’t manage to fuck it up, so why not give them a go?
Same happened at the December 2, 1972 Election.
How wrong we were.
Gympie, if as you claim, LNP governments are superior, how about a list of positive achievements of the Abbott/Turnbull/Morrison Governments. Perhaps you could put debt levels at the top of the list and then how the appointment of Knights and Dames has a positive outcome for the majority of Australians.
Boerwar
Usually an inheritance is not forthcoming until someone is well over 50 or even 60 years old.
And if a parent lives into very old age, aged care costs cuts into any inheritance.
Having said that. Many of those within my sphere who have already received an inheritance, didn’t utilise it very wisely. lol!
A cabinet reshuffle for Albanese later in the year would be a good idea. I’d definitely move Andrew Giles elsewhere – even the most partisan Laborite on this blog would concede that Giles isn’t up to the job of immigration minister.
Chris Bowen is another millstone around the neck of this PM – I think it’s time really for Bowen and Tony Burke and a few other hangers-on from the Rudd/Gillard era to leave politics at the next election and hand over to some fresh blood.
Albanese has a talented backbench, the likes of Andrew Charlton and Sally Sitou and Josh Burns and Tania Lawrence for example, why not promote some of them at least to the outer ministry?
‘Irene says:
Thursday, March 28, 2024 at 1:03 pm
The type of provider in the NDIS. Who decide how much funding their client needs, and pocket a very good profit.
From 9News: Bill Shorten has vowed to investigate a disability provider who claims the National Disability Insurance Scheme will partially cover the cost of a 1980s-themed, three-night cruise for participants.
The company is associated with a man who is already being investigated by the competition watchdog for falsely claiming the Disability Minister would be the headline act at a gala event in Parliament last week.
Mexicanbeemersays:
Thursday, March 28, 2024 at 12:11 pm
Just give every disabled person a few million dollars and not bother with the NDIS.
———
A much better NDIS policy. We know providers often charge 3 x as much to the taxpayer for a physiotherapy visit than a non NDIS person pays.
Spoken by Disability Recipient on The Drum. A good ABC program, should not have been axed. Likely this or more for all services and goods wheelchairs etc provided.
No wonder the NDIS costs us over $40billion in 2023/2024 and growing annually. More than Medicare. This is a disgrace.’
—————————
More moral panic mongering by Iren. More abject lunacy. There are 400,000 people on the NDIS. Giving them a couple of million dollars each would cost $800 billion.
And Don Farrell can definitely go fairly soon too.
The best ministers in this government are Jim Chalmers, Mark Butler, Jason Clare, Amanda Risworth, Annika Wells and the Resources Minister from WA(much maligned on this forum, but she’s very sensible).
‘Democracy Sausage says:
Thursday, March 28, 2024 at 1:31 pm
A cabinet reshuffle for Albanese later in the year would be a good idea. I’d definitely move Andrew Giles elsewhere – even the most partisan Laborite on this blog would concede that Giles isn’t up to the job of immigration minister.
Chris Bowen is another millstone around the neck of this PM – I think it’s time really for Bowen and Tony Burke and a few other hangers-on from the Rudd/Gillard era to leave politics at the next election and hand over to some fresh blood.
Albanese has a talented backbench, the likes of Andrew Charlton and Sally Sitou and Josh Burns and Tania Lawrence for example, why not promote some of them at least to the outer ministry?’
—————————–
Twaddle. The High Court decision found Labor with the ATM government’s suite of legislation. It was woefully inadequate. What a surprise. With a second High Court decision pending the Albanese Government tried to make sure that appropriate legislation is in place. This was blocked by Dutton&Bandt. Think about that for a moment.
Bowen has has introduced a comprehensive suite of climate actions. The first by any climate minister in Australia ever. The latest – vehicle emissions standards is being blocked by Dutton&Bandt. Think about that for a moment.
Burke has introduced a raft of IR reforms that are benefiting Australia’s workers, in particular those who are the lowest paid and those working in feminized industries. The reforms also substantial support casuals and gig workers who were being screwed by the ATM governments. Think about that for a moment. Inter alia this has had the effect of reducing the gender pay gap significantly. Think about THAT for a moment. Burke is also a dab hand at doing the job of the manager of government business in the house. Those opposite are being slaughtered in QT after QT.
If you seriously want to think about a reshuffle and are in the hunt for crooks, liars, dunderheads and duds I suggest you will find a fertile hunting ground in Dutton’s shadow ministry.
Apparently the 1bn mega spend on solar panels is just the beginning of picking winners.
What could possibly go wrong ?
LVT
Lets just go nuclear with your mate Dutton then.
What could possibly go wrong?
SMRs went bust as a policy setting in record time.
The Big Cats?
$90 billion a pop at today’s prices?
What could possibly go wrong?
It will be Pink Batts 2.0
Boerwar
Only $550 billion dollars then for 6. Will LVT be prepared to pay for them?
Former Test cricketer Stuart MacGill has been committed to face trial for his alleged involvement in a cocaine haul linked to his apparent kidnapping.
MacGill was arrested in September 2023 and charged with taking part in the supply of a large commercial quantity of a prohibited drug.
The 53-year-old faced Sydney’s Downing Centre Local Court this morning, and was committed to stand trial on the single charge in the District Court.
Pink Batts worked bloody well – it was foil insulation installed by untrained workers by 2 bit install companies run by cowboys that was problematic…
Gawd if the LNP ever devised a scheme half as good at any point in time…
Labor has already endorsed nuclear through AUKUS.
Boerwar
More moral panic mongering by Iren. More abject lunacy. There are 400,000 people on the NDIS. Giving them a couple of million dollars each would cost $800 billion.
———————-
About time the disabled got something from government.
March 28, 2014 The Guardian. PM Albanese is travelling through the Hunter region to spruik the government’s $1bn announcement to offer subsidies and production credits to Australian manufacturers to build solar panels locally.
The initiative is considered a response to others made by governments around the world, such as the US Inflation Reduction Act, to pour hundreds of billions of dollars into the renewable energy industry.
The council’s chief executive, John Grimes, said today’s announcement was a “fantastic downpayment” but said Australia was starting very late in the global marathon toward transitioning fully to renewable energy:
It’s a bit like entering a marathon that started and turning up the startline an hour into the race and expecting to compete at that scale, but we do have the world’s best technology.
Congratulations to PM Albanese here. The failure of the ATM LNP has left us well behind in installing solar panels.
Just passing a very big array of solar panels, installed on sunny, previously cleared land, near Wangaratta, Victoria. Ideal location.
Granny Anny asks:
“Gympie, if as you claim, LNP governments are superior, how about a list of positive achievements of the Abbott/Turnbull/Morrison Governments. ”
– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
Happy to.
#1. Construction kicked off again at the end of 2013 with the booting of Labor.
It was still going gangbusters when Morrison got booted, so much that the glut of work meant there was and is a chronic shortage of house builders.
#2. made a decision on Submarines in the first 6 months, something Labor was unable to even look like ever accomplishing in 6 years.
#3. Built roads and bridges all over
#4. No NT Law & Order crises in 9 years.
#5. Made the NDIS work.
How’s it going under Labor?
#6. Stopped the Boats!
#7. Reduced #s on Nauru and Manus Island to zero.
#8. Supported the jobless during COVID with JobKeeper and large temporary increases in JobSeeker
Now, Granny, I know what you’re gonna say.
You’re gonna say:
“All those things are basic Good Government 101, so what?”
And, I agree with you.
Here’s my question to you:
“Why can’t Labor ever do any of those things?”
Lars, maybe you could give Gympie a hand with a list of achievements of the Abbott/Turnbull/Morrison Governments.
In addition to debt and knighthoods, perhaps that great big shirtfront on Putin should get a mention. One positive from the Turnbull Government was the same sex marriage plebicite, but sadly that caused the religious fundies to launch their successful takeover bid as they now own the Liberal Party. Perhaps Boarwar could republish one of his famous lists about the Morrison omni shambles.
Well just give me a little time Gympie because that list is absolute crap and it took you an hour and a quarter to produce it.
Eight items of bullshit in 9 years, wow.