Three new federal voting intention polls have dropped in short order, including the monthly Resolve Strategic poll for Nine Newspapers, which seems to have lost most of the Labor lean that distinguished it from other pollsters before the start of the year. Both major parties are down two points on the primary vote from the February result, putting Labor at 32% and the Coalition at 35%, with the Greens up two to 13% and One Nation down one to 5%. Anthony Albanese’s combined very good and good rating is down three to 38%, with his combined poor and very poor up two to 49%, while Peter Dutton is respectively steady at 36% and down one to 44%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister shifting out from 39-32 to 40-30. In the absence of a two-party preferred measure from Resolve Strategic, my own favoured method of calculating one from flows at the 2022 election (which lumps together independents and all parties other than the majors, the Greens, One Nation and the United Australia Party into a single category) gets a result of about 52.8-47.2 in Labor’s favour, compared with a bit over 52-48 last time. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Sunday from a sample of 1610.
The Guardian reports the fortnightly Essential Research has what is by some distance Labor’s worst result on voting intention this term, with the Coalition opening a lead of 50% to 44% on the pollster’s 2PP+ measure, the balance being undecided. This compares with a Labor lead of 48% to 47% last time and a reversed result the time before, the latter being the only previous occasion when the Coalition led this term. We will have to wait upon the release of the full report later today for the primary votes. Despite this, The Guardian report relates little change on a monthly leadership on which respondents rate the leaders on a scale of one to ten, with 32% (down one) giving Anthony Albanese a rating of seven to ten and 35% (steady) a rating of zero to three. Peter Dutton had 31% at the top of the range, down one, and 34% at the bottom, up one.
UPDATE: The primary votes are Labor 29% (down three), Coalition 36% (up one), Greens 11% (steady) and One Nation 7% (down one), with undecided up one to 6%.
Further questions relate to campaign finance reform and the state of Australian democracy, recording a drop from 46% to 32% in satisfaction with the latter since immediately after the 2022 election and dissatisfaction up from 18% to 31%. There was strong support for truth-in-advertising laws (73%), real-time reporting of donations (64%) and donations caps (61%), though the related proposal of greater public funding found only 29% support with 35% opposed.
The weekly Roy Morgan poll is also less than stellar for Labor, recording a tie on two-party preferred after they led 51.5-48.5 result last time. However, this is more to do with a weaker flow of respondent-allocated preferences than changes on the primary vote, on which Labor is steady at 31.5%, the Coalition up one to 38%, the Greens up one-and-a-half to 14% and One Nation down one to 4.5%. My own measure of a result based on 2022 election preferences has Labor leading 51.5-48.5, which is little different from last time.
We also have from The Australian further results from the latest Newspoll showing 51% support for fixed four-year parliamentary terms with 37% opposed.
Dog’s Brunch @ #692 Thursday, March 28th, 2024 – 9:48 am
Capable, intelligent women who physically assault 6 year olds, causing welts on their legs, and who abhor left-handedness???
Brainwashed, vicious ratbags who should not be allowed anywhere near impressionable youngsters, more like!
They are trying to create other brainwashed, vicious ratbags, and parents tolerate it! Truly sick!
Diogenes
“In SA, there seems to be bipartisan support to bring in legislation for the Electoral Commission to count prepolls before voting day to speed up the process. Seems eminently sensible.”
Absolutely. The Dunstan result would have been done and dusted on Saturday night if that were possible.
”
frednksays:
Thursday, March 28, 2024 at 8:21 am
The polls didn’t see it coming. 32 point swing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vvzaYf_Q5Rk
”
frednk
Do you how many people voted in this special election? About 14.5% of registered voters. 14.5%!!!.
That is ridiculous even special election/ by-election standards. Just saying.
”
Victoriasays:
Thursday, March 28, 2024 at 8:42 am
frednk
It will be funny when the polls don’t see the blue tsunami coming in November. Lol
”
Victoria
Only 14.5 % registered voters voted in that special election. Only 14.5%!!!
Yabba wrote, “capable, intelligent women who physically assault 6 year olds, causing welts on their legs, and who abhor left-handedness???
Brainwashed, vicious ratbags who should not be allowed anywhere near impressionable youngsters, more like!
They are trying to create other brainwashed, vicious ratbags, and parents tolerate it! Truly sick!”
This!
sprocket
I appreciate your Your optimism. I hope you are right. But only about 14.5% registered voters voted in this special election.
Socrates
It’s hard to see a disadvantage to having more certainty on the night of the election. It has crept up on them a bit with the increasing number of prepolls.
Some fact checking required….
“In SA, there seems to be bipartisan support to bring in legislation for the Electoral Commission to count prepolls before voting day to speed up the process. Seems eminently sensible.”
Problem there is that there must be scrutineers and it would be impossible to enforce an embargo on them disclosing results and trends to their respective Parties.
Prepoll was counted on Sunday Morning at the 2017 Qld Election, now it is counted on the Election night.
However, since PrePoll doesn’t operate on Election Day, there’s no reason why it shouldn’t be counted on Saturday Morning, apart from the Parties getting a heads up of what to expectlater in the day and perhaps issue fresh HTVs to take advantage of the insider information.
A few right wing loons seem to think Albo is on the way out. Suckers.
Note what happened on the US where a state based female campaigned pro abortion and achieved a massive positive swing.
The same sentiment along with criminal and civil charges will be the end of Trump. He will take the Republicans down with him.
The same right wing religious fundies now own the Liberal Party in the southern states and have started a takeover in Queensland.
Australians don’t want to live their lives as dictated by these idiots. They are doomed to fail.
”
Pied pipersays:
Thursday, March 28, 2024 at 10:00 am
Labor sells out democracy and Australian values to deal with the Chinese dictatorship.Appeasers!
”
Idiotic statement to put mildly.
”
Scottsays:
Thursday, March 28, 2024 at 9:42 am
Overreach by this group.
Senator Faruqi as a prominent Muslim knows all about Islamaphobia. Slagging off the Greens won’t help their cause.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-28/faith-groups-warn-greens-deal-religious-discrimination-betrayal/103641770
”
Scott 2.0? I presume.
Lars Von Triersays:
Thursday, March 28, 2024 at 8:00 am
“I think Albo will resign if he can’t turn it around by mid year rather than have a RGR ending.”
“The Carney article is devastating for him.”
from Lars Von Trying to be a Fortune Teller
after reading Carney Von Crystal Ball
gympie
Yes, I think they could count on Saturday morning or Friday.
Scottsays:
Thursday, March 28, 2024 at 9:42 am
Overreach by this group.
Senator Faruqi as a prominent Muslim knows all about Islamaphobia. Slagging off the Greens won’t help their cause.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-28/faith-groups-warn-greens-deal-religious-discrimination-betrayal/103641770
”
Anything short of the adoption of the Australian Law Reform Commision Report in full would be extremely disappointing. Make the right choice Labor…
Our experience: We moved to a new area on the southern outskirts of Canberra 32 years ago before the schools were opened. Three schools are in close proximity in a “schools cluster”- public primary, low fee Catholic primary, public high. When the schools opened, our daughters attended the public system through to year 12 ,then uni through to graduation. So far as I know, the Catholic primary has similar facilities to the public primary.
I do get annoyed when the ACT Liberals and some of the local MSM try to denigrate public schools with stories claiming they are inferior in some way. At the 2020 ACT election the Liberals promised money for Catholic schools but nothing for public schools. Fortunately they have been in opposition since 2001 and hopefully will remain that way at the October election this year.
Technological advances has evened the field in determining the quality of education being offered from different schools across Australia.
Religion and “prestige” have become lesser factors in determining school selection.
There exists many examples of better outcomes being delivered by public schools in the big cities, the states and the degree of isolation.
The needs of children’s education is rapidly changing.
School funding decisions are political firstly rather than practical or fair.
Dog’s Brunch says:
Thursday, March 28, 2024 at 9:48 am
….
Excellent music education and the nuns were generally a strong example of capable, intelligent women.
Are there many left? There are now a lot of Lay teachers.
Promotion of PrePoll by the AEC and increasing take up by the Electorate, coupled with early counting of votes, will tend to make Election Day meaningless.
The ECQ makes the excuse that they’re saving money when asked why Election Day booths are woefully understaffed, [e.g.,BCC Election on March 16]leading to queuing, yet can find the $$ to rent 4 or 5 large PrePoll Voting Centres that won’t be used on Election Day anyway.
Not alleging any wrongdoing, but why do they appear to be dissing rather than respecting the Process, all the time?
Ven says:
Thursday, March 28, 2024 at 10:11 am
..
frednk
Do you how many people voted in this special election? About 14.5% of registered voters. 14.5%!!!.
That is ridiculous even special election/ by-election standards. Just saying.
That is why US polls are so wrong, it comes down to who cares enough to vote, or I suspect who is willing to vote.
Labor and the L/NP are just the parliamentary arm of the fossil fuel industry.
If you believe climate change is real, you logically can’t vote for either.
sprocket_ says:
Thursday, March 28, 2024 at 10:19 am
Some fact checking required….
Spent some time in the US and it looks pretty right to me.
Yabba says, ‘Capable, intelligent women who physically assault 6 year olds, causing welts on their legs, and who abhor left-handedness???’
I know, despite HI being a public school teacher for 35 years!
The Sean Carney article about the PM, much to my surprise, is NOT bad for him. Or, only if you are after a superficial one-liner, as the entirely superficial commentary of Lars Von Trier tends to be. Instead, I found some good advice for the PM in it:
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/albo-behaves-like-a-celebrity-we-need-him-to-be-a-prime-minister-20240327-p5ffkj.html
And why is such a crumb like Peter Dutton doing as well as the PM? Because he concentrates on his image projection, and he hones his lines to a fine point. Warm fuzzies from the PM just aren’t cutting it or cutting through.
Yabba
It has definitely changed.
As I understand it the schools have control over the priests showing up.
I don’t think there are many nuns left.
The company that owns the Singapore-flagged container ship that collided with Baltimore’s Francis Scott Key bridge on Tuesday killing at least six people may be forced to pay the most compensation in maritime history.
Grace Ocean, owner of the cargo ship Dali, may have to pay $2bn, according to US media. The sum far exceeding the $1.5bn paid in the 2012 Costa Concordia disaster, when 32 people were killed as the ship ran aground off the coast of Italy.
The federal government should underwrite war-risk insurance for shippers and set out plans to charter commercial vessels in a conflict, according to a new report warning a US-China war would likely close Australia’s vital trade routes through the Indonesian archipelago.
In an analysis of the nation’s shipping routes, the Australian Strategic Policy Institute warns two-thirds of the nation’s exports and 40 per cent of its imports could be brought to a halt by the blocking of key regional choke points, including the Malacca, Sunda and Lombok Straits.
While protection of the nation’s trade is a key argument for Australia’s decision to buy long-range nuclear submarines, the report warns “the greatest risk to the security of our trade routes lies relatively close to home”. “The entry points to the Indonesian sea lanes are obvious choke-points and are relatively close to the Australian mainland,” it says.
The report warns 40 per cent of Australia’s liquid petroleum supplies are derived from Middle East crude that passes through the Malacca Strait between Indonesia and Malaysia.
Its author, ASPI senior fellow David Uren, says US rather than Chinese forces would be likely to close the key Indonesian waterways in the event of a conflict over Taiwan, under longstanding American plans for a “distant blockade” of China. “China is highly dependent on the passage of shipping through those waters, so they could become the focus of a US blockade in any conflict between the two powers,” he says.
The closure of the key Indonesian trade routes would force Western Australia’s mineral exports to North Asia to take a 10,000km detour, travelling around southern Australia, up the nation’s east coast, and east of Papua New Guinea.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/defence/two-thirds-of-exports-at-risk-in-china-conflict-report-warns/news-story/66f9f86cd145aaa243b23ceb446cdc21?amp
Perceptions of Albanese’s problems are not new. Howard faced the same scrutiny and questions during his first term. He also almost lost to Beazley, remember. It wasn’t until Howard won a second term and got past the GST that his own confidence went up along with the confidence of those who voted for him.
I see Albanese as Labor’s Howard. Not commanding, not flashy, but good at getting the detail right and generally making the right calls. The electorate hasn’t made up their mind about Albanese yet But if he wins a second term, I think you will see a far more positive picture emerging.
The nuns I know are either in retirement or are firebrand feminists, infused by Liberation Theology, who are at war with the bishops.
I agree with Lynchpin though, solid and dependable will win in the end.
Holdenhillbilly says:
Thursday, March 28, 2024 at 11:12 am
…’
————–
Good post, IMO. All our cable-borne and sat-borne comms would disappear which would create chaos in our distribution systems. If you think Centrelink is having problems now…
Forget about the 10,000km re-routing. There would be no minerals reaching South Korea, China or Japan. Whole industries and regional economies would collapse.
Spares for most of our machinery would vanish from the inventories and the shops.
Our currency would crash and our ability to pay for imports would crash with it.
Inflation is pretty usual in these situations. Hyperinflation is a distinct possibility.
All government transfers would be at severe risk of being cut or eliminated altogether.
ICE vehicles would disappear from the roads because there would be fossil fuel enough for emergency vehicles and the ADF… if we can persuade the US to cart it to Oz at all.
There would be some remarkable pluses. Our population would likely fall as the refugee flow is reversed and as people with dual citizenships desert the sinking ship.
Plus, the Greens would, for once wholeheartedly support the consequences of a war. Many of the industries that would collapse are industries the Greens want to put to bed. This would at least temporarily reduce the current smashing impact on biodiversity. Put it altogether and we would have rapidly falling emissions.
Macro mismanagement by the Albanese Government:
1) overcook immigration to skyrocket infrastructure catch-up building costs;
2) exacerbate by enabling an unnecessary energy shock to drive building materials even higher;
3) bankrupt builders just as demand soars and
4) trigger an unprecedented rental shock for low-income families, youth and the vulnerable.
At least the Chinese communists are using their crisis to make housing access cheaper and more accessible.
Labor is throwing its own support base onto the streets:
Advocates say almost 40-thousand children and young people came to them for assistance in the 2023 financial year… and close to half remained homeless afterward.
They’re meeting with the federal government today to ask for the funds… to help build more.
From Macrobusiness, on 2GB this morning.
The National Anti-Corruption Commission has landed its first blow, with a former employee of the Western Sydney Airport charged with allegedly asking for a $200,000 bribe.
The Australian Federal Police arrested the former employee on Wednesday, alleging they had solicited the bribe while negotiating a $5 million contract for services at Western Sydney Airport (WSA), which is still under construction.
The person has been bailed, and will appear before Sydney’s Downing Centre Local Court on April 18.
Under New South Wales criminal law, the penalty could be up to seven years in jail.
Commissioner Paul Brereton said the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) had “chosen to publicise the charge to highlight the risk of corruption in high value and complex procurements in the Commonwealth sector.” “The commission acknowledges the timely and proactive actions of WSA in referring the matter to the commission and the AFP,” the NACC said in a statement. “WSA’s cooperation was a key enabler of the investigation.”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-28/national-corruption-wathcdog-claims-first-scalp-airport-bribe/103644382
sprocket at 10.19 am
“Some fact checking required….”
Not just fact-checking; there is a design fault in that analogy.
All analogies are limited. Some can be illuminating to a degree. Others are simply misleading.
Of course, explaining to many US citizens about the outside world is difficult, given their horizons.
However, comparing Tassie to Oregon is very misleading, apart perhaps from comparable scenery.
The population of Oregon is greater than half of NSW. The Republican presidential vote in Oregon has barely been above 40% for the last 4 elections. The Republican candidate hasn’t won there for 40 years.
Oregon was a Republican state until the mid 1980s, except for a Dem Governor win in 1974. Since the mid 1980s it has been solidly Dem. Even H. Clinton beat the Orange Ego by 11% in Oregon in 2016.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politics_of_Oregon
Moreover, while the Republicans usually win in the rural back-blocks, there is nothing comparable in Oregon to NW Tassie (i.e. Braddon).
If you look at long-term trends for State elections in Braddon, the trends are more or less the mirror image, i.e. the reverse, of Oregon, with the Tories doing better there mostly since the mid 1980s. See:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Division_of_Braddon_(state)
@ C@t; thanks for the Shaun Carney article.
2 things:
“Albanese has simply not become a commanding presence as prime minister. He is yet to find a way to articulate a coherent program for dealing with these profound inequities, much less a saleable story to go with it. … .”
#1. Carney talks about inequities withou saying what those are, and advocates for spin over substance
– – — – – – – — – – – – –
“Surely the fact that he is running level with Dutton, who has offered no policies except for the nuclear energy three-card trick, is a sign that the government has a longer-term problem.”
#2. Depite The [Murdoch] Australian shilling for Nuclear Energy for years, now that Dutton has adopted it as Policy, it’s a ‘3 card trick’?
Just a guess, based on that comment and my gut feeling that the Liberal base won’t vote for Nuclear Power in a million years, Dutton is using the Policy to expose the hypocrisy of Labor on even core ideology, and if elected, he’ll throw the Nuclear Policy to an Independent Assessment, which will find it doesn’t stack up on emvironmental grounds, and it’ll be tossed down the memory hole.
North Tasmania is like Ipswich and Caboolture.
‘Irene says:
Thursday, March 28, 2024 at 11:31 am
Macro mismanagement by the Albanese Government:
1) overcook immigration to skyrocket infrastructure catch-up building costs;
2) exacerbate by enabling an unnecessary energy shock to drive building materials even higher;
3) bankrupt builders just as demand soars and
4) trigger an unprecedented rental shock for low-income families, youth and the vulnerable.
At least the Chinese communists are using their crisis to make housing access cheaper and more accessible.
Labor is throwing its own support base onto the streets:
Advocates say almost 40-thousand children and young people came to them for assistance in the 2023 financial year… and close to half remained homeless afterward.’
————————
The Xibot strikes again!
Always the same themes: democracy bad. Totalitarian China good.
A rational person might just want to consider why there are only a few hundred Australians living in China (including one under sentence of death following a totally opaque trial) and around 1.2 million Australians of Chinese descent living in Australia.
Holden Hillbilly
Yes the Dali owners (and insurers) are indeed up for a lot of money. Apart from the cost of a new bridge ($2+ billion US for 1km long span) the port will be closed for months due to it being blocked till the bridge wreckage is raised. A port that scale is probably worth $100+ million per month in lost income.
This story has appeared in various media outlets today but not in Murdoch rags. No points for guessing why.
Has Stephanie Foster asked Sussan Ley for an apology?
If not, why not?
Cat at 11.06 am
“And why is such a crumb like Peter Dutton doing as well as the PM?”
Don’t be so hard on crumbs. After all, they were part of something bigger than them once.
Dutton is not doing as well. Exhibit 1: Dunkley by-election. Carney is simply wrong in that comment.
The point of the Carney article is that Albo should not be complacently thinking that being merely a bit better than Dutton is enough.
There are two observations from Carney that seem significant. 1) “Albanese has simply not become a commanding presence as prime minister.” Yes, but again the comparison is with Howard. When did he attain such a presence?
2) The marginal seats focus. Yes, that is important. Another reason why a comparison with 1998 is quite instructive.
Boerwar hatred of The Greens is indicated in increased silliness in his comments :
“The Greens would, for once wholeheartedly support the consequences of a war.”
Any party or individuals criticising Labor gets a blast from him.
The usual suspects in the LNP and media want Albanese to send soldiers to Alice Springs.
To do what?
Stand on a street corner with an automatic weapon and frighten the locals?
Not sure our soldiers have the experience in dealing with civil unrest to make that a good option.
“This story has appeared in various media outlets today but not in Murdoch rags. No points for guessing why.”
Clearly you can’t, but I’ll help you.
The Departmental Chief is [publicly] supporting her Minister, which she either had to do or resign, because, y’know, that’s part of her job.
In other words it’s a non story.
Yeah, Murdoch runs AgitProp all the time and spins everything to suit Labor, but there wasn’t much they could do with this one.
It’s like the 2013 Election, Abbott was going to win well, and he did, so it woulda been crazybrave to have run the headline
RUDD CERTAINTY
Of course, the Daily Murdoch did run this kind of line in the last 10 days of the 2019 Election, but that’s another story.
Posted without comment.
https://www.france24.com/en/americas/20240327-france-to-help-brazil-develop-nuclear-technology-for-submarines
And
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/defence/unachievable-dire-aukus-warning-as-britains-subs-program-sinks/news-story/551a798dcd8175e77c1ebc07a8423fbf?amp
A sovereigns citizen group was locked out of the town hall as they took the the local council, court and police station to hand over documents to declare Gympie a ‘demilitarised zone’ (DMZ) on Thursday 21 March. The document was a proclamation to establish a demilitarised zone for ‘Nmdaka Dalai Australis’, a term which can be found online from ‘The commonwealth of Australia – Unincorporated Association’, (CAUA) which says that the term translates to “Our Southern Lands”.
In what appears to be a part of a larger movement, the CAUA claimed to have given the DMZ document to the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs, Federal Police, Federal and State Governments and Councils as of Tuesday 12 March. The group recorded each of their interactions with council staff, police officers and courthouse staff as they handed over the documents asking them to “read it and understand it,” said by Aunty Bucky.
On Sunday 24 March, the group confronted Gympie Regional Council Chief Executive Officer Robert Jennings who accepted the documents, noted them and thanked the group for approaching him.
“Thanks everyone, look thanks for this, noted and you have it on camera so we got it all covered,” said Mr Jennings.
Following the charges made for wilful damage made on Thursday morning in memorial park, six police officers were seen to attend the group at the town hall where they also received documentation from the sovereign citizens.
https://gympietoday.com.au/featured/2024/03/27/town-hall-locks-out-protestors/
Ven
Hence why the polls are useless. Most of the people being polled, will probably not bother actually voting.
The polls since the days of Obama have been crap.
There were 364,000 job vacancies in February 2024, down 24,000 from November, according to new figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). Bjorn Jarvis, ABS head of labour statistics, said: “The number of job vacancies fell by 6.1 per cent between November 2023 and February 2024.
“The drop in February followed a small fall of 0.8 per cent in November 2023 and was the seventh quarterly drop in a row. “Job vacancies are now 23.5 per cent lower than they were at their peak in May 2022. However, they remain well above the pre-COVID-19 pandemic level and are still 59.8 per cent higher than February 2020, or around 136,000 more vacancies.
“The latest Labour Account data also showed that job vacancies continue to make up a much higher proportion of jobs in the labour market than we would typically see. In the December quarter 2023, they were 2.4 per cent of all jobs, compared with around 1.6 per cent during 2019.”
https://www.abs.gov.au/media-centre/media-releases/job-vacancies-fall-further-february-remain-high
Victoria @ #747 Thursday, March 28th, 2024 – 11:56 am
Not true, there is likely voters, expected voters, expected non-voters, these things are all weighted.
Queensland Alabama? Nah…..