Click here for full display of Tasmanian results.
Click here for full display of Dunstan by-election results.
End of Saturday night
Labor leads by 6852 to 5875 in Dunstan, with upwards of 7500 votes to come — the Liberals will need about 56.5% of these to overhaul the Labor lead, the chance of which my system puts at 1%.
In Tasmania, contrary to the general assumption of a Liberal minority government, there are still live scenarios where Labor and the Greens get to sixteen with a natural ally in David O’Byrne making it seventeen, making the magic eighteen achievable through a deal with either independent Kristie Johnston or the Jacqui Lambie Network. But perhaps the most likely scenario is that the Liberals get to fifteen and the JLN gets to three, with the latter naturally gravitating to the option with the least moving parts in which the biggest party forms government. My read of the situation is that there is a bedrock thirteen seats for Liberal, ten for Labor, four for the Greens, two for the Jacqui Lambie Network and two independent, to which can be added a likely fourteenth Liberal and a third JLN. In greater doubt are two seats in Franklin, to go between Liberal, ex-Labor independent David O’Byrne and the Greens, and a seat in Clark that could go to Labor or the Greens.
Bass. Despite dropping 21.5% from a Peter Gutwein-fuelled 60.0% in 2021, the Liberals have clearly won three quotas with two for Labor and one for the Greens. Beyond that, the Jacqui Lambie Network has 0.63 quotas, though postals may reduce this, while I’m projecting a Labor surplus of 0.34 above their two quotas. That would seem promising with respect to Rebekah Pentland, the strongest performing JLN candidate. Michael Ferguson and newcomer Rob Fairs are clearly elected of the Liberals — the third incumbent, Simon Wood, holds only the slenderest of leads over controversial colleague Julie Sladden. The two Labor incumbents, Michelle O’Byrne and Janie Finlay, are both returned, and the Greens member will be Cecily Rosol.
Braddon. Other than the JLN gouging 11% out of the Liberals, this was a similar result to 2021. There is no doubt that the Liberals have won three seats, returning incumbents Jeremy Rockliff, Felix Ellis and Roger Jaensch; Labor has won two, returning incumbents Anita Dow and Shane Broad; and the Jacqui Lambie Network has won one, which could be either be Miriam Beswick or James Redgrave. To that the Liberals seem likely to win a fourth seat with a 0.69 quota surplus, barring some impressive preference-gathering from independent Craig Garland on 0.40 quotas or a late-count surprise for the Greens on 0.52.
Clark. The only division without the JLN running, the 4.4% drop in the Liberal vote is perhaps pointing to how the election might have looked in their absence. Also a bright spot for Labor in that their primary vote was up 9.7%, with the independent vote down despite a seemingly strong selection of contenders. The Liberals have a clear two quotas, ensuring re-election for Simon Behrakis and Madeleine Ogilvie, as does Labor, with Ella Haddad re-elected and Josh Willie moving successfully from the upper house, while Vica Bayley of the Greens has been re-elected. The contestants for the two final seats are independent incumbent Kristie Johnston, with 0.64 quotas; the Greens, with a surplus of 0.57 putting former Hobart Lord Mayor Helen Burnet in contention; and Labor, whose surplus of 0.54 gives newcomer Stuart Benson a chance. Johnston will presumably coast home as around 10% for various other independents are distributed, leaving the Greens and Labor vying for the last seat.
Franklin. Labor can also take something out of the result in the other Hobart electorate: the 6.2% drop in their vote doesn’t look so bad when David O’Byrne’s 9.0% is taken into account, and the 8.0% Liberal vote exceeded the JLN’s 4.9%. Eric Abetz and Jacquie Petrusma were closely matched on the Liberal ticket, and both will be elected; Dean Winter is returned for Labor and will likely be joined by Meg Brown; and Rosalie Woodruff was re-elected for the Greens with a quota in her own right. In the race for the last two seats, O’Byrne has 0.72 quotas, and I’m projecting the Liberals to have a 0.74 surplus over their second quota (keeping incumbent Nic Street in contention) and the Greens to have 0.57 over their first (Jade Darko being the leader out of the party’s minor candidates), with preferences likely to favour the Greens.
Lyons. The Liberal vote fell 13.5% here, in part because of John Tucker unproductively draining 3.3%. They nonetheless have a clear three quotas, re-electing Guy Barnett and Mark Shelton and facilitating Jane Howlett’s move from the upper house, while Rebecca White and Jen Butler are re-elected for Labor. For the remaining two seats, the Greens have 0.84 quotas, the Jacqui Lambie Network has 0.67, and Labor has 0.64 over the second quota. Preferences will presumably be unfavourable for Labor, so the situation is encouraging for Tabatha Badger of the Greens and one of two closely matched JLN candidates, Andrew Jenner and Troy Pfitzner.
Election night
9.22pm. I now have a bug-free Dunstan page — all two-candidate preferred numbers are in and it’s calling it for Labor.
9.13pm. Labor’s position in Tasmania, while not great, has looked less bad as the evening has progressed — I now have them holding steady on the primary vote, with the Liberals down by double-digits. The JLN hasn’t matched the polling, but it looks well placed in the three non-Hobart divisions.
9.01pm. Dunstan is looking a bit less dramatic with the latest update, which cuts my projection of the Labor swing from 7% to 3%. I believe my system isn’t making a probability determination because it isn’t sure the Greens won’t make the final count, but I suggest it should be. All the booths are in on the primary vote — the TCP booth results don’t seem to be firing in my results system, so my read is based on preference estimates, which are likely to be pretty accurate.
8.57pm. I’ve found the error that was causing my system to read a Liberal-Greens result in Dunstan. Now it’s pointing to an emphatic win for Labor, erasing the 0.5% Liberal margin with a 7% swing. The Greens are up 8.7% on my reckoning and having a good night in Tasmania, seemingly on track for two seats apiece in Clark and Franklin and one each in Bass and Lyons, while striking out in Braddon.
8.51pm. Franklin also looks three Liberal (Eric Abetz, Jacquie Petrusma and Nic Street, with incumbent Dan Young squeezed out), two Labor (Meg Brown likely joining Dean Winter), two Greens (Rosalie Woodruff plus a lottery for second) and one independent, the independent in this case being David O’Byrne.
8.47pm. Clark looks three apiece for Labor, Liberal and the Greens plus with incumbent Kristie Johnston returned, and none of the other independents in contention unless preferences behave in a manner I’m not anticipating.
8.43pm. Braddon looking like three Liberal, two Labor and one JLN, with the last going to either independent Craig Garland or a fourth Liberal. The three Liberal incumbents and two Labor incumbents are returned.
8.40pm. So then, some overdue commentary on what we’re seeing in Tasmania, starting with Bass. Three Liberal, two Labor, one Greens, one in doubt. Rob Fairs a clear second elected Liberal after Michael Ferguson, open race for the third. Labor’s two seats will stay with the incumbents. Cecily Rosol elected for the Greens. Presumably JLN to take the third, which candidate is unclear.
8.34pm. Continuing to bash away at technical issues, but it looks like a boilover in Dunstan. My projections are seemingly not to be relied upon in that they are pointing to a Liberal-Greens contest, but it seems what we’re actually looking at is a surge to the Greens, a drop in the Liberals and a win for Labor.
8.05pm. My Dunstan display at least seems to be going okay — looking like a big vote for the Greens. My projected TCP has the Liberals ahead, but it’s a bit speculative at this stage.
7.55pm. I’ve been trying and failing to fix an issue that is making the parties in the booth results table appear in the wrong order.
7.35pm The big swing against the Liberals in Bass looks to be extending to Launceston. Perhaps some of this reflects the loss of Peter Gutwein’s vote.
7.31pm. The booth results maps you can find on my Tasmanian election results pages are a good way of discerning regional patterns, and it doesn’t seem the booths around Burnie are doing anything special for the JLN. The main story in Braddon remains that Labor is down more than Liberal.
7.28pm. There are 11 booths and 3.7% of the enrolled vote in from Bass, and it suggests the Liberals have taken a big hit with the JLN in double figures. However, almost all of this is outside Launceston — there the JLN vote may be lower and less damaging to the Liberals as a result. Lara Alexander making little impression so far.
7.23pm. Early numbers are a bit unspectacular for the JLN in its presumed stronghold of Braddon, but it can’t be stressed enough that results will be heavily regionalised here and in Lyons — Burnie booths may bring them up. Similarly, it may be too early to read reach conclusions from John Tucker being outpolled by Shooters in Lyons.
7.18pm. Still a bit busy with bug-squashing, but both major parties looking well down in Lyons, Labor doing badly in Braddon, first numbers (very small in this case) in Franklin consistent with the trend except that the Jacqui Lambie Network is as expected weaker here.
7.08pm. So far, Tasmania looks consistent with the polls in that the Jacqui Lambie Network is on about 10% in the non-Hobart seats which has come at the expense of the Liberals — except in Lyons, where it’s come at the expense of Labor. A few more booths might establish if the latter is an early count anomaly.
7.01pm. I’ve ironed out my Lyons bug, and I believe the Dunstan feed is starting to work.
6.55pm. Not sure why the ABC has numbers for Lyons and I don’t. I do have numbers for Bass and Braddon though, which are obviously from very small rural booths.
6.45pm. For reasons I’m unlikely to be able to solve, my Tasmanian pages are sometimes loading properly but sometimes not, either failing to load the map or falling over altogether. So you will likely need to hit refresh a fair bit to follow them properly. So far I’m unable to upload the feed for Dunstan at all, but that may be because it isn’t live yet.
6.30pm. Polls have closed for South Australia’s Dunstan by-election, which on reflection I think would be best dealt with on the same post as this one.
6pm. Welcome to the Poll Bludger’s live coverage of the Tasmanian state election count. Polls are now closed and we should be getting the first results from small rural booths fairly shortly. Through the link above you will find live updated results throughout the night and beyond, inclusive of an effort to project party vote shares in each of the five divisions through booth-matched swings. Also note that coverage of South Australia’s Dunstan by-election will commence when polls close there in half an hour.
Been a bit out of the loop today. Did this actually happen, or is it just wild speculation based on Rebecca White conceding after not doing so last night?
This is the funniest election in a good long while. Idiot Premier calls an early one for his idiot big stadium for dumb idiots, that only idiots who tend to hate him anyway would benefit from regardless. State hates it and him for it, swings double digits against him. Votes for independents and a weirdo southern bogan party that has no discernable politics. Not wanting to be one-upped in the non-politics department, after warning how third parties and independents risked destabilising government, Tasmanian Labor flat out refuses to negotiate with them and throws away the first opportunity in a decade to form government, because…??????. Great stuff.
And White did not actually concede … turns out she just said Rockliff has first dibs on trying to form a government … as per convention and protocol.
Asha: Guardian blog, 3 hours ago:
‘Despite an earlier report suggesting she would declare Labor had lost the Tasmanian election, the party’s leader, Rebecca White, has offered a more nuanced position at a media conference in Richmond, outside Hobart.
‘She said it was clear that the Liberal party had won the most seats at the election and should be given the first opportunity to form a government.’
Oliver Sutton:
That seems like a fair position for Rebecca White to take. Convention does give Rockcliff the first shot at forming a government, and the Liberals do seem to be better places to do so. Being too eager to start talking with the crossbench probably wouldn’t be a great look for White given her statements about minority governments during the campaign.
If Rockcliff is unable to to get enough crossbenchers onside, then the only options are another election or Labor trying to form a government. And I don’t think the Tasmanian people would be particularly keen on yet another election right now.
‘Party with biggest pluralty gets dibs on government’ isn’t a convention or a protocol or anything other than loser talk lol
After an election that produces a hung parliament, the incumbent leader of the government surely should always get first crack at putting together a parliamentary majority.
.I thought that was actually a convention of the Westminster system.
Furtive Lawngnomesays:
Sunday, March 24, 2024 at 5:34 pm
‘Party with biggest pluralty gets dibs on government’ isn’t a convention or a protocol or anything other than loser talk lol
================================================
It’s political convention. The Governor generally give the party with the most seats a certain period to form a Government. If they can’t the next in line party is given a chance to do so.
The governor gives government to the party that has the consent of parliament. That’s the convention. Pretending that other parties somehow aren’t allowed to negotiate amongst each other for that consent is loser talk. sorry
In 1996 the then Tasmanian Premier Ray Groom lost his majority and refused to govern in minority so resigned so his Treasurer Tony Rundle took over and governed in minority with the Greens until 1998.
The Governor would ask Jeremy Rockliff to test his numbers then failing that then they would ask Rebecca White. If neither could or refused then more likely there would be a new Liberal leader who would try to appease the crossbench to get confidence. A second election would not happen lightly and would only be a very final resort. Nobody wants or needs a second election. In 1989 the Liberal Premier Robin Gray lost his majority and asked the Governor for a second election but was refused one. Labor and the Greens took a signed agreement to the Governor but were initially rebuffed. Parliament was recalled with Gray as Premier but when his choice as Speaker was voted down he resigned and Labor leader Michael Field was sworn in as Premier. Those years were a wild ride in politics.
Furtive Lawngnomesays:
Sunday, March 24, 2024 at 5:48 pm
The governor gives government to the party that has the consent of parliament. That’s the convention. Pretending that other parties somehow aren’t allowed to negotiate amongst each other for that consent is loser talk. sorry
==================================================
It is all currently academic anyway. Until the seats are declared negotiations can not go very far. As nobody knows what negotiations are actually needed to get to a majority currently.
The convention is the incumbent government gets first dibs, not the party with the most seats.
That doesn’t prevent other parties and crossbenchers from negotiating behind the scenes, of course.
Furtive Lawngnome at 5.10 pm
It could get sillier yet. Lambie may tomorrow ask the Parliamentary Library to explain to her how, in NZ, a real party (albeit still largely a personality cult headed by W. Peters) has set much of the agenda of the new government there, based on only 6% of the national vote (Lambie’s network, not party, has 6.7%).
The difference is that NZ First is an experienced populist outfit with a supreme leader; JLN will be neither.
Asha is right. The fool who called the election, ie the incumbent Premier, gets first shot at proving they have the confidence of the house.
If he can’t do it, the leader of the next largest group has a shot.
But with the unique TAS system we won’t know for sure who 2/7 of the MPs are for a couple of weeks! In particular we have no idea which Lambies are up for slaughter.
Rocliffe’s speech on Saturday night is looking particularly premature right now.
——————-
The duopoly is dead. Political leaders are going to have to change their rhetoric about ruling out coalition partners. The progressive left vote is now split forever more. It is on the right to, but they are better able to hide it by having a presumed coalition.
——————-
Loved this election, now the fun starts.
Then start with the declared winners then? Not that there’s any reason Labor couldn’t negotiate with likely, or even unlikely winners anyway. Except that Labor seems addicted to losing I guess
Asha if it actually worked the way you think then parties could stay in government in perpetuity on the pretext of continuing negotiations, regardless of how many seats they have.
“Asha if it actually worked the way you think then parties could stay in government in perpetuity on the pretext of continuing negotiations, regardless of how many seats they have.”
The governor governs: he don’t like that kinda behaviour …
Lawngnome, that’s not what Asha said. Anyway, I’m going out to shout at clouds and then maybe argue with some straw men.
An election was called. We don’t yet have a result. Of course preliminary discussions should occur but you would have to be very careful. At this stage we don’t know which lambies have one. They could stand anywhere on any issue. Their notional leader is completely unpredictable. We know next to nothing about these people. They could be closet liberals. They could be angry laborites. Negotiations are pointless until we know who and what they are.
Lambie herself was very critical of Rockliff on election night. Was she posturing? Was she serious?
Oliver Suttonsays:
Sunday, March 24, 2024 at 6:24 pm
“Asha if it actually worked the way you think then parties could stay in government in perpetuity on the pretext of continuing negotiations, regardless of how many seats they have.”
The governor governs: he don’t like that kinda behaviour …
===============================================
The Governor always sets a deadline.
On the chance that there are 3 JLN MPs forming government, all the risk sits with them. There are members of the parliamentary liberal party that will eat them alive. They’ll wrap them in parliamentary protocols and arcane practices. The three JLN MPs will find themselves muted at every twist and turn.
And they they’ll face the blame once we go back to an election.
The Liberals won’t negotiate in good faith, they’ll nickel and dime whatever the JLN puts in the table. The JLN will probably not have a long term policy view and will quickly run out of things to negotiate with.
You know what, if I was the JLN I wouldn’t go into government with the libs. Guarantee supply and assess each piece of legislation on its merits. Put up your own bills and get the greens and Labor to pass them.
MI
That makes sense. In a formal coalition the JLN and Indies might be bound to support the Libs. Better to sit off and get what you want, not just rubber stamp legislation.
I’d have my money on another election in a year or so
Relax, folks. ABC TV evening news reports that Tasmania has re-elected a Liberal government.
Who knew?
Labor possibly do not want to govern with a rainbow coalition. Politically it is a poisoned cup. With a mixed bench of other teams keeping you in power little of any agenda will be advanced.
Sure the paid positions are nice, there are better offices, more staff, etc. But the chances are a Liberal led government held together with sticky tape is not going to get anywhere either.
I am expecting the Tasmanians to be back to the polls before the end of next year.
Oliver Suttonsays:
Sunday, March 24, 2024 at 8:14 pm
Relax, folks. ABC TV evening news reports that Tasmania has re-elected a Liberal government.
Who knew?
_____________________
Not you that’s for sure.
LOL, Taylormade!
“Have you seen Ben Raue’s graphs of candidates votes by seat? He uses a sort of dark Teal for the Greens.”
Probably an accommodation for colourblindness? Red & Green don’t go well together and yellow is taken by JLN so that colour choice is pretty good if you’re going to use white text.
Mabwm at 6.48 pm and B.S. Fairman at 8.29 pm
“We know next to nothing about these [JLN] people. They could be closet liberals.”
Even if they’re not that yet, they could become closet Liberals as an exercise in self-perpetuation.
More than any other elected MPs, if they are elected, the JLN ones will have an interest in avoiding another election, and they might be more agile than Tucker and Alexander in achieving that.
The basis of their interest in that is clear; they only just got elected, with even Braddon not a walkover.
Yes Rockliff went overboard with his speech, especially given the large anti-Lib swings, particularly outside Hobart.
But look at the narrow calculation based on a crude coincidence of self-interest: if the Libs get to 15, and JLN get 3 MPs, those two groups together comprise 18 MPs, who would all have a strong interest in avoiding another election.
Hence the critical importance of the late counting. People are assuming that the Libs and the newbies from JLN cannot possibly get on. But, once you realise the latter group have, unlike the independents, no real policy positions, and you appreciate the crude logic of self-interest, Rockliff may get home.
There will be the problem of who will be speaker. That’s where the independents come in. Surely D. O’Byrne would be considered an ex-Labor rat if he became speaker. Does Johnston have her price?
Could there be sufficient ‘anyone but Abetz’ preferences to exclude him before he reaches a quota? I know it’s a long shot.
Love this old saying..”The Government has the confidence of the floor of the House…” Bit to go on this one!
Dinkum:
At 0.75 of a quota, I’d have to assume that there will be enough preferences from down-ticket Liberals to get him over the line even with significant leakage.
Ashasays:
Sunday, March 24, 2024 at 9:34 pm
Dinkum:
At 0.75 of a quota, I’d have to assume that there will be enough preferences from down-ticket Liberals to get him over the line even with significant leakage.
====================================================
While it is very likely you are right. It would be really funny if there wasn’t.
Entropy:
Absolutely!
I’m not that familiar with Tasmanian election counts, but when do they usually start counting preference flows? Do they start doing manual counts in the next few days, or do we have to wait a couple of weeks till they ‘push the button’?
Ninasays:
Sunday, March 24, 2024 at 10:23 pm
I’m not that familiar with Tasmanian election counts, but when do they usually start counting preference flows? Do they start doing manual counts in the next few days, or do we have to wait a couple of weeks till they ‘push the button’?
=================================================
I don’t really know either but i assume it is like the Federal Senate. So have to wait for end of postal vote return period. Then they push the button?.
I ‘m certainly not advocating it, but what are the chances of a Grand Coaltion between the Liberals and Labor in Tasmania?
I feel like thats a possibility that never gets discussed.
disasterboy: I think a grand coalition was seriously considered locally during the height of the forestry dispute – to shut out the Greens – but the national Labor party leadership wouldn’t have a bar of it.
There’s nothing in it for either major party nowadays: it would just damage their brands.
In a sense, the decision to reduce the size of parliament from 35 to 25 was a piece of jointly-supported action directed against the Greens.
Would the greens be the opposition in Tasmania if there ever was a Liberal/Labor combined government
More media reports overnight that Labor -not so much Bec White but the party executive – has thrown in the towel and won’t be seeking to form a coalition. I suspect they are not only spooked by the prospect of pissing off their own base by having anything to do with the Greens, but are also aghast at the possibility of needing to engage with Johnston and particularly O’Byrne (not to mention both together: it would be like the US trying to form a tripartite coalition involving both North and South Korea).
However, if Rockliff were to declare himself unable to form government, I think it is certain that the Governor would direct the Labor leader – White or whoever – to have a go.
But Rockliff should be able to get something together. The question is how long will it last, particularly with the growing right faction challenge from within his own party.
A further thought.
In the event of a Liberal-JLN coalition, the pathway to an early leadership coup against Rockliff has been made a little smoother by the false flag operation against the JLN that so greatly pissed off Jackie Lambie.
Just a coincidence, I’m sure.
Another Tasmanian state election called immediately would be the better alternative than no-confidence motion succeeding and forcing the premier of liberal minority government to go and ask the governor to call the election
To be fair, a primary vote of 29% for Labor is terrible, and they couldn’t really try to form a government on that basis. Remember too the last time they were in a formal coalition with the Greens in Tasmania, it ended rather badly.
Rebecca White needs to be replaced by leader, that’s very obvious, she’s had 3 straight elections and she really hasn’t advanced the cause of Tasmanian Labor in that time period.
Tasmania is different, of course. In particular, with multi-member electorates, voters might be more inclined to vote Green or other minor parties or independents because they have a better chance of getting up. Also, given that the overall number of voters is comparable to that of some of the larger local government areas on the mainland, maybe politics down there is more local, with individual candidates having a bigger role when deciding how to vote. Maybe a Tasmanian could comment.
Anyway, looking at the primaries, I get:
Left / Centre Left (ALP+Green+Animals) —> 44.1%
Right (Liberal + Shooters) —> 39.1
Centre / Someone Else —> 16.8
To me, that looks like a better result for the Left than the Right.
Scott,
Yes, if Labor and Liberal were to forma Grand Coalition, the Greens, as the largest party outside government, would become the official opposition.
Which is one reason among many why such a coalition won’t happen.
Another election can’t be called before the newly-elected parliament sits. There’s a precedent where a Liberal premier of Tasmania tried to do just that and the governor refused.
I apologise for being too lazy to look it up, but it was about thirty or so years ago.
Could the ALP offer confidence and supply only to the Libs and still retain the title of opposition?
Jacobin – Supply and confidence is not required for a government to govern in minority. A minority government just needs to convince the governor that they are the least likely to lose a confidence vote.
If the governor is in this position of deciding who governs, they generally consult the major parties. Labor could just say then the Liberals are in a better position to govern.
Who is the official opposition is up to the parliament. By convention, it is the largest party not in government but there are times in Westminster parliaments where that has not always been the case. For example at the moment, in WA the Nationals and Liberals are equal in numbers (3 a piece) and therefore it was up to the parliament to decide. Also during WWII in the UK, there was a national government of all 3 major parties and they appointed an opposition from their numbers and not the ILP who had 4 MPs.
Because I cant be bothered waiting I’m going on likely outcome as of today
I predicted this:
15 Lib
10 Lab
4 Gre
2 JLN
4 Indi
Likely outcome as of today
15 Lib
10 Lab
5 Gre
3 JLN
2 Indi
I’m not surprised that John Tucker got bumped by JLN, I am a little surprised Sue Hickey got bumped by the Greens. But thems the breaks.
Democracy Sausage: “Remember too the last time they were in a formal coalition with the Greens in Tasmania, it ended rather badly.”
I keep hearing this, but it isn’t necessarily the case. The Labor-Green accord (or whatever it was called ) of the early 2010s provided a government that functioned quite well until – as always happens for tactical reasons – the two parties broke up the relationship close to the election and campaigned separately, with Labor pushing as always for majority government (and the Liberals doing so even more strongly).
As of 2014, Labor had been in Government for 16 years. Dissatisfaction with minority government certainly helped Hodgman achieve the 12 per cent swing that swept the Liberals into majority government, but the “time for a change” factor was also significant, as perhaps also was sexism towards Lara Giddings on the part of older voters (both male and female in my experience): particularly in the light of the negativity towards Gillard during the 2010-2013 Federal term.
The big question is whether or not Labor can hope to achieve a majority government again. The last time that Labor achieved this was 2006, when they were still glowing from the (largely undeserved) credit that came from being in government when the state received a significant revenue boost from the introduction of the GST. Also, the Libs under Rene Hidding were in a particularly sorry state at that time, which enabled Labor to achieve a majority even though the Greens had received 16.6 per cent of the vote (as opposed 13 per cent or so on Saturday night).
Moreover, the nature of the Tasmanian electorate has changed. There has been a significant influx of migrants from the mainland, of whom a substantial proportion have strong views on environmental issues, which inclines them towards voting for the Greens. And, as on the mainland, there is a trend for traditional blue collar workers and their families to shift to the Libs. There is also a growing population of migrants, particularly from the sub-continent, who bring a further degree of uncertainty into the mix, but my sense is that a lot of them are open to voting for the Libs.
In this election just finished, Labor squibbed the opportunity to follow Malinauskas’s lead in SA and make hospitals and health the biggest issue of the election. I’m not quite sure why that opportunity was missed it’s certainly what I would have done if I had been in charge of their marketing campaign. I hate to say it, but I sometimes got the impression that many of the Labor candidates were more concerned with making sure they got elected than that their party won government (perhaps, understandably, most of them assumed that the party had no chance of winning the election). And White really didn’t cut through very well as leader.
Maybe a messy Lib-JLN coalition (with possibly independents involved) for the next 1-3 years (I can’t conceive of them making it to 4) plus a much better campaign could bring Labor more than 50 per cent of the votes at the next election. But I’d have to say it doesn’t seem especially likely, and the future for Labor down here is that, if they want to be in government, they might have to find a long-term way of working with the Greens a la the ACT arrangement.
Labor and Greens in Tasmania need to GROW UP!
They need to work together. They are chasing the same vote.
jacobin: “Could the ALP offer confidence and supply only to the Libs and still retain the title of opposition?”
I guess this is an interesting question in a hypothetical sense, but is meaningless in a practical sense. As I’ve already explained, the ALP down here is desperate to see the Libs govern in a coalition with someone other than them and then see it collapse and bring on an early election that they would expect to win. I’m not sure it’s a viable tactic, but it’s clearly the one they’re running with.
So they have no interest whatsoever in doing anything to help the Libs right now.
Mostly Interested: that looks right to me. There’s a faint outside chance of 11 Lab (3 in Lyons) and 2 JLN and an even fainter chance of 12 Lab if they finish ahead of Burnett in Clark. But I think it’ll end up being as you suggest.