Click here for full display of Tasmanian results.
Click here for full display of Dunstan by-election results.
End of Saturday night
Labor leads by 6852 to 5875 in Dunstan, with upwards of 7500 votes to come — the Liberals will need about 56.5% of these to overhaul the Labor lead, the chance of which my system puts at 1%.
In Tasmania, contrary to the general assumption of a Liberal minority government, there are still live scenarios where Labor and the Greens get to sixteen with a natural ally in David O’Byrne making it seventeen, making the magic eighteen achievable through a deal with either independent Kristie Johnston or the Jacqui Lambie Network. But perhaps the most likely scenario is that the Liberals get to fifteen and the JLN gets to three, with the latter naturally gravitating to the option with the least moving parts in which the biggest party forms government. My read of the situation is that there is a bedrock thirteen seats for Liberal, ten for Labor, four for the Greens, two for the Jacqui Lambie Network and two independent, to which can be added a likely fourteenth Liberal and a third JLN. In greater doubt are two seats in Franklin, to go between Liberal, ex-Labor independent David O’Byrne and the Greens, and a seat in Clark that could go to Labor or the Greens.
Bass. Despite dropping 21.5% from a Peter Gutwein-fuelled 60.0% in 2021, the Liberals have clearly won three quotas with two for Labor and one for the Greens. Beyond that, the Jacqui Lambie Network has 0.63 quotas, though postals may reduce this, while I’m projecting a Labor surplus of 0.34 above their two quotas. That would seem promising with respect to Rebekah Pentland, the strongest performing JLN candidate. Michael Ferguson and newcomer Rob Fairs are clearly elected of the Liberals — the third incumbent, Simon Wood, holds only the slenderest of leads over controversial colleague Julie Sladden. The two Labor incumbents, Michelle O’Byrne and Janie Finlay, are both returned, and the Greens member will be Cecily Rosol.
Braddon. Other than the JLN gouging 11% out of the Liberals, this was a similar result to 2021. There is no doubt that the Liberals have won three seats, returning incumbents Jeremy Rockliff, Felix Ellis and Roger Jaensch; Labor has won two, returning incumbents Anita Dow and Shane Broad; and the Jacqui Lambie Network has won one, which could be either be Miriam Beswick or James Redgrave. To that the Liberals seem likely to win a fourth seat with a 0.69 quota surplus, barring some impressive preference-gathering from independent Craig Garland on 0.40 quotas or a late-count surprise for the Greens on 0.52.
Clark. The only division without the JLN running, the 4.4% drop in the Liberal vote is perhaps pointing to how the election might have looked in their absence. Also a bright spot for Labor in that their primary vote was up 9.7%, with the independent vote down despite a seemingly strong selection of contenders. The Liberals have a clear two quotas, ensuring re-election for Simon Behrakis and Madeleine Ogilvie, as does Labor, with Ella Haddad re-elected and Josh Willie moving successfully from the upper house, while Vica Bayley of the Greens has been re-elected. The contestants for the two final seats are independent incumbent Kristie Johnston, with 0.64 quotas; the Greens, with a surplus of 0.57 putting former Hobart Lord Mayor Helen Burnet in contention; and Labor, whose surplus of 0.54 gives newcomer Stuart Benson a chance. Johnston will presumably coast home as around 10% for various other independents are distributed, leaving the Greens and Labor vying for the last seat.
Franklin. Labor can also take something out of the result in the other Hobart electorate: the 6.2% drop in their vote doesn’t look so bad when David O’Byrne’s 9.0% is taken into account, and the 8.0% Liberal vote exceeded the JLN’s 4.9%. Eric Abetz and Jacquie Petrusma were closely matched on the Liberal ticket, and both will be elected; Dean Winter is returned for Labor and will likely be joined by Meg Brown; and Rosalie Woodruff was re-elected for the Greens with a quota in her own right. In the race for the last two seats, O’Byrne has 0.72 quotas, and I’m projecting the Liberals to have a 0.74 surplus over their second quota (keeping incumbent Nic Street in contention) and the Greens to have 0.57 over their first (Jade Darko being the leader out of the party’s minor candidates), with preferences likely to favour the Greens.
Lyons. The Liberal vote fell 13.5% here, in part because of John Tucker unproductively draining 3.3%. They nonetheless have a clear three quotas, re-electing Guy Barnett and Mark Shelton and facilitating Jane Howlett’s move from the upper house, while Rebecca White and Jen Butler are re-elected for Labor. For the remaining two seats, the Greens have 0.84 quotas, the Jacqui Lambie Network has 0.67, and Labor has 0.64 over the second quota. Preferences will presumably be unfavourable for Labor, so the situation is encouraging for Tabatha Badger of the Greens and one of two closely matched JLN candidates, Andrew Jenner and Troy Pfitzner.
Election night
9.22pm. I now have a bug-free Dunstan page — all two-candidate preferred numbers are in and it’s calling it for Labor.
9.13pm. Labor’s position in Tasmania, while not great, has looked less bad as the evening has progressed — I now have them holding steady on the primary vote, with the Liberals down by double-digits. The JLN hasn’t matched the polling, but it looks well placed in the three non-Hobart divisions.
9.01pm. Dunstan is looking a bit less dramatic with the latest update, which cuts my projection of the Labor swing from 7% to 3%. I believe my system isn’t making a probability determination because it isn’t sure the Greens won’t make the final count, but I suggest it should be. All the booths are in on the primary vote — the TCP booth results don’t seem to be firing in my results system, so my read is based on preference estimates, which are likely to be pretty accurate.
8.57pm. I’ve found the error that was causing my system to read a Liberal-Greens result in Dunstan. Now it’s pointing to an emphatic win for Labor, erasing the 0.5% Liberal margin with a 7% swing. The Greens are up 8.7% on my reckoning and having a good night in Tasmania, seemingly on track for two seats apiece in Clark and Franklin and one each in Bass and Lyons, while striking out in Braddon.
8.51pm. Franklin also looks three Liberal (Eric Abetz, Jacquie Petrusma and Nic Street, with incumbent Dan Young squeezed out), two Labor (Meg Brown likely joining Dean Winter), two Greens (Rosalie Woodruff plus a lottery for second) and one independent, the independent in this case being David O’Byrne.
8.47pm. Clark looks three apiece for Labor, Liberal and the Greens plus with incumbent Kristie Johnston returned, and none of the other independents in contention unless preferences behave in a manner I’m not anticipating.
8.43pm. Braddon looking like three Liberal, two Labor and one JLN, with the last going to either independent Craig Garland or a fourth Liberal. The three Liberal incumbents and two Labor incumbents are returned.
8.40pm. So then, some overdue commentary on what we’re seeing in Tasmania, starting with Bass. Three Liberal, two Labor, one Greens, one in doubt. Rob Fairs a clear second elected Liberal after Michael Ferguson, open race for the third. Labor’s two seats will stay with the incumbents. Cecily Rosol elected for the Greens. Presumably JLN to take the third, which candidate is unclear.
8.34pm. Continuing to bash away at technical issues, but it looks like a boilover in Dunstan. My projections are seemingly not to be relied upon in that they are pointing to a Liberal-Greens contest, but it seems what we’re actually looking at is a surge to the Greens, a drop in the Liberals and a win for Labor.
8.05pm. My Dunstan display at least seems to be going okay — looking like a big vote for the Greens. My projected TCP has the Liberals ahead, but it’s a bit speculative at this stage.
7.55pm. I’ve been trying and failing to fix an issue that is making the parties in the booth results table appear in the wrong order.
7.35pm The big swing against the Liberals in Bass looks to be extending to Launceston. Perhaps some of this reflects the loss of Peter Gutwein’s vote.
7.31pm. The booth results maps you can find on my Tasmanian election results pages are a good way of discerning regional patterns, and it doesn’t seem the booths around Burnie are doing anything special for the JLN. The main story in Braddon remains that Labor is down more than Liberal.
7.28pm. There are 11 booths and 3.7% of the enrolled vote in from Bass, and it suggests the Liberals have taken a big hit with the JLN in double figures. However, almost all of this is outside Launceston — there the JLN vote may be lower and less damaging to the Liberals as a result. Lara Alexander making little impression so far.
7.23pm. Early numbers are a bit unspectacular for the JLN in its presumed stronghold of Braddon, but it can’t be stressed enough that results will be heavily regionalised here and in Lyons — Burnie booths may bring them up. Similarly, it may be too early to read reach conclusions from John Tucker being outpolled by Shooters in Lyons.
7.18pm. Still a bit busy with bug-squashing, but both major parties looking well down in Lyons, Labor doing badly in Braddon, first numbers (very small in this case) in Franklin consistent with the trend except that the Jacqui Lambie Network is as expected weaker here.
7.08pm. So far, Tasmania looks consistent with the polls in that the Jacqui Lambie Network is on about 10% in the non-Hobart seats which has come at the expense of the Liberals — except in Lyons, where it’s come at the expense of Labor. A few more booths might establish if the latter is an early count anomaly.
7.01pm. I’ve ironed out my Lyons bug, and I believe the Dunstan feed is starting to work.
6.55pm. Not sure why the ABC has numbers for Lyons and I don’t. I do have numbers for Bass and Braddon though, which are obviously from very small rural booths.
6.45pm. For reasons I’m unlikely to be able to solve, my Tasmanian pages are sometimes loading properly but sometimes not, either failing to load the map or falling over altogether. So you will likely need to hit refresh a fair bit to follow them properly. So far I’m unable to upload the feed for Dunstan at all, but that may be because it isn’t live yet.
6.30pm. Polls have closed for South Australia’s Dunstan by-election, which on reflection I think would be best dealt with on the same post as this one.
6pm. Welcome to the Poll Bludger’s live coverage of the Tasmanian state election count. Polls are now closed and we should be getting the first results from small rural booths fairly shortly. Through the link above you will find live updated results throughout the night and beyond, inclusive of an effort to project party vote shares in each of the five divisions through booth-matched swings. Also note that coverage of South Australia’s Dunstan by-election will commence when polls close there in half an hour.
There is the possibility that the JLN might just splinter and they all go their separate ways a la Derryn Hinch and the Palmer Party. They have come from nowhere and there is no ideology holding them together. It might happen sooner rather than later.
RE: Mostly Interested
”
Likely outcome as of today
15 Lib
10 Lab
5 Gre
3 JLN
2 Indi
”
Looks like the JLN are the Monarch Makers with that result. Really whoever they want to work with are who can form a majority coalition.
Blackburnpseph @ #551 Monday, March 25th, 2024 – 10:24 am
My money is on this. I could write a long spiel about the qualities of a good leader, and the risks of newly formed parliamentary parties but we all more or less know this and how it has played out before. I don’t really think this one will be any different.
IF, and is a big if, the JLN had been campaigning for years and had a very clearly spelt out mission statement, candidates who were aligned with the mission, a party leader who was a political visionary, voters weren’t just vote parking as a protest, yadda yadda yadda then perhaps the inevitable crash and burn wouldn’t occur. The Greens were the last party to achieve this and they’ve effectively been in the game nearly 40 years.
Jacquie speaks on ABC radio this morning, looks like they’re in. As expected the stadium funding is on the table. I reckon a bullshit ‘deal’ will be the stadium gets built but without it’s proposed roof. And there’ll be major school and hospital funding in the north of the state, a token on things like stamp duty for new home buyers to ‘alleviate’ the housing crisis.
She’s already backflipped on a hard no to the stadium, see below.
Just pap really.
“speaking on Monday, Jacqui Lambie said her candidates had no choice but to work with the Liberals since Labor leader Rebecca White had already conceded defeat.
“We have to form government in some way and if (Labor’s) not going to be in the race, then I guess we have no choice,” Senator Lambie told ABC Radio.
“I’m quite sure Tasmanians do not want to go back to re-election over the next two months, that’s not bringing stability. That’s what we promised Tasmanians.”
The federal leader suggested a “good start” for negotiations between Mr Rockliff and her candidates would be a second look at the millions put aside for a controversial new stadium proposed for Hobart.
“I still cannot come up with a decent reason why it is a priority to have a new stadium with a roof,” she said.”
https://www.news.com.au/finance/work/leaders/tasmania-in-political-limbo-as-talks-over-who-will-form-minority-government-begin/news-story/2941b2b2e44e458b1433fdc75afbb313
There’s an oft-quoted statement of Malcolm Mackerras that that when voters are faced with the uncertainty of minority government they will seek safety by giving a large majority to one side or the other.
Or words to that effect. I can’t find the exact quote.
We have just had yet another example of of how that’s complete nonsense.
The 3 JLN are going to need to work together too for any deals to work. That is not a given. The loyalty to the “cause” is probably not great.
It would also be preferrable for any government to have 18 MPs out of 35 and a different speaker. Would the Greens be willing to put one their numbers up or either of the two independents willing to stick their neck out for the role?
In SA Labor is now up to 7.6% (53.8/46.2) ahead after further counting this morning. That is a widening of the result from Saturday (53.3/46.7) after pre-polls were counted this morning.
Further counting of postals might not be completed till next week. I find it very hard to see how Labor’s lead can be overtaken by the remaining number of votes outstanding.
https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/liberal-candidate-anna-finizio-casts-her-vote-in-the-dunstan-byelection-admitting-it-will-be-a-close-race/news-story/7cec4c7dd0c545d3ce2ef56d29b937c5?amp
I find it odd that the three JLN majority brokers remain faceless and nameless as far as the media seems concerned. Has anyone seen/heard one yet other than the rather embarrassing interview given by some bloke on polling night.
Mundo – The reason why the remain faceless and nameless is because although it is fairly clear that one member of the JLN has been elected in three electorates, it is not clear which of the 3 candidates in each the winner will be. Unlike the senate voting, the candidates are not listed in any particular order under the system of Hare-Clark used. So until the tallying is done, who has actually been elected is a mystery.
The reality is the true horse trading can’t start until mid-April. It is 10 days until all the votes are in because of postals, throw in Easter which in Tassie is 5 days. Then the distribution takes a few days. So about April 10th.
You can tell who doesn’t have much clue about forming govt in Tasmania – all those such as premier Rockcliffe, various media commentators, Jacquie Lambie making statements before it is clear who is going to fill the positions that are still uncertain.
That applies in spades to JLN people. No-one has any idea which of the 3 JLN candidates will or might be elected in each of the 3 electorates where they have a good chance.
If you care, here’s the transcripts of the election night speeches
https://tasmaniantimes.com/2024/03/election-night-speeches/
These are Rockilff’s finest Iraqi Minster of Truth lines. Literally none of which were true.
“There’s still clearly much counting to do and to go and as we move forward over the course of the next week or more, but two things are very clear tonight. First, an historic fourth consecutive win for the Liberal Party in Tasmania. This has never happened before in the great state of Tasmania, congratulations team.
And secondly, Tasmanians have delivered a very clear message. And I want to assure each and every Tasmanian that we’ve heard it, and I thank you for it. But Tasmanians have not voted for a change of government. Make no mistake. This has been a very poor result for the Labour Party of Tasmania. That looks like their lowest vote, primary vote, ever. Labour hasn’t got enough seats to form a cabinet, let alone a government.”
Rockliff’s claim of a win is up there with Billie Snedden’s claim of almost 50 years ago that “we didn’t lose the election, we came second.”
Re Lambie: I think she should play her cards closer to her chest than she does.
However she showed good judgement in quickly facing up to the fact that the only chance for stable government in the immediate future is for her and her winning candidates to sit down and negotiate with the Libs.
Labor doesn’t want to play and, in any event, most of the JLN votes appear to have drawn from Liberal or Liberal-adjacent voters. If those voters had been keen on a Labor government, they could have voted for one.
She could have spent several weeks wasting her time by playing hard to get. I am certainly no fan of the woman and her tiresome “all politicians are untrustworthy scumbags except for me” shtick: I put the JLN candidates in Franklin right at the bottom of my preferences, with only Uncle Eric below them. But she strikes me as bring a practical person who wants to get stuff done rather than spend her time scoring cheap political points.
It’s conceivable that this arrangement might work out a little better than I thought. Or, alternatively, Uncle Eric might shout “Nein!” and pull the rug out from under it all. It’ll be interesting to watch what happens.
Sounds like Rebecca White is happy to look at a minority Labor govt but has enough sense to know Libs will get first shot. Minority govt is not same as coalition.
Jacquie Lambie will also no doubt try and bagain but seems to lack a serious strategy based on recent statements.
Socratessays:
Monday, March 25, 2024 at 12:30 pm
In SA Labor is now up to 7.6% (53.8/46.2) ahead after further counting this morning. That is a widening of the result from Saturday (53.3/46.7) after pre-polls were counted this morning.
=============================================
Pollbludger site still on 48% counted as it ended Saturday night. I dare say if these results were fed in the 1.0% chance of a Liberal win currently showing there would be severely reduced.
https://pollbludger.net/sa2024by1/Results/HA.htm?s=Dunstan
Note: i just went into the SA Election site. They aren’t showing any pre-polls counted there. Still also on 48.3% of the vote counted. I think you have confused the 53.8% which is what Labor was leading on the night. With Williams prediction of what it is going to end up at. The poll bludger number of 52.6% is what the system is predicting it will end up at. Not what it currently is at. Which is 53.8%.
The Tassie Premier is really big on hubris. Yes Labor’s primary vote is very poor and is very much cause for concern but he was the architect of the parliament going back to 35. The seat of Clark in Hobart is very left leaning and realistically neither major party could hope to win more than two seats each there. Therefore to obtain a majority now means you have to win four seats in each of the other four electorates which going forward I would say would be exceptionally difficult unless you have a primary vote of over 50% which realistically probably isn’t going to happen.
I think Socrates figures are the actual figures from Sat. which would show a 4.3% swing whereas the 3.3% swing on WB table is projected. That is implying a 1% improvement for Libs after rest of votes in.
As with Entropy.
Dean Winter is nominating for the Labor leadership
The sum total of updates today on the ECSA website for Dunstan seem to have been very small changes in the voting numbers published at the end of election night. Presumably they have just been doing checking today.
Big update on ecsa now
There is an update on the ECSA relating to Dunstan, which is 1781 formal votes, after preferences ALP 744, Liberal 1037.
Literally minutes after posting the above re Dunstan, some declaration ballots have been uploaded … around 1800, with the liberal candidate gaining about 293 votes. Labor lead drops to 730 votes. Greens primary vote crashed relative to election night (just 9.7% in that batch). Labor’s was very similar to election night (31.7%) and the liberals were up to 53.5%. I have no idea where these votes came from as there is no granularity provided … but the Liberals might yet have a chance if that first batch are representative of the rest …
Very good day’s counting for the Libs in Dunstan – to claw back 250 votes from Labor’s election night lead, with 1800 declaration votes counted today. It’s not clear what these are, but if that pattern is sustained with the other 6,500 votes still to be counted, it will be very tight. (1300 postals issued have not been returned as yet – a fair few of these will get added so would be around 7000 or so otes remaining to be counted).
If the votes counted today were early postal votes, you would expect them to be strongly pro-Liberal, but in the recent Dunkley election, the later postal votes were much more favourable to Labor. It will be very interesting to see how this unfolds as more votes get counted over the next day or two.
Entropy, Spence
Thanks and sorry for my error. I see now the Dunstan vote has just been updated for the pre-polls, which did favour the Liberals. The result is now 52.5/47.5 to Labor. Pre-polls broke quite sharply to Liberals today (58/42).
As expected Dean Winter has thrown his hat in the ring for leader.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-25/move-on-to-oust-rebecca-white-as-tasmanian-labor-leader/103630262
Does anybody know whether the 1781 votes added to the count are postal votes – which usually favour the Liberals more than prepolls. In the 2022 Federal election, across the whole of Sturt, the Liberals won 52.5% of the prepolls (after preferences) and 55.2% of the postals. The 58.2% for the Liberals from this group of ballots is higher than either of those, but since we don’t know where they are from, it looks like it will be another day before the result in Dunstan can be said to be decided. As at a couple of minutes ago, the ABC site has changed the prediction to ‘ALP Likely’
Rockliff’s new government will be short-lived. He is not known for his ability to negotiate or compromise. Jacqui Lambie and her, as yet, unknown members of parliament need to remain very forthright about what they want. And they need to be very vocal about the games Rockliff plays with them. The public needs to see JLN as the conscientious, hard-working good guys before it all collapses again.
And full points to Labor for standing back and letting Rockliff give it his best shot.
Rosalie Woodruff – the Greens leader – has been on TV spruiking about their part in the future governance of Tasmania. She has also expressed regret that Labor didn’t try to form a government with them. That would be the dumbest thing Labor could do, I think.
ABC news said the votes counted today in Dunstan were “postal votes” so maybe labor can breathe a little easier.
Unfortunately I think picking Winter dooms Tas Labor for 2028 as well.
The votes released today look like the first and earliest group of postals. Hard to understand why prepoll count couldn’t be completed today. Electoral Commission needs to show a bit more enthusiasm for keeping up with public expectations.
Luigi Smith says:
Monday, March 25, 2024 at 7:15 pm
Rosalie Woodruff – the Greens leader – has been on TV spruiking about their part in the future governance of Tasmania. She has also expressed regret that Labor didn’t try to form a government with them. That would be the dumbest thing Labor could do, I think.
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Don’t know anything about Tasmanian politics, but Labor only winning 10 seats out of 35, maybe all they will achieve, doesn’t say much about what Labor offered the Tasmanian voters. Voters didn’t want what Labor offered. Does that put their first preference vote close to 30%?
But The Greens are a social Democratic Party, what Labor once was. Have policies for low income people. The Greens who could gain 5 seats, and the JLN would have funded their campaign with considerably less money than the Labor or Liberal Party. And the belief is big campaign funding wins votes and government.
Maybe not any more.
And any party or individual who supports ending clear felling of forests at a time when Australia needs to keep this greenery to absorb atmospheric carbon dioxide created from burning fossil fuels will continue to gain voter support. Global warming is evident now with more extreme weather, coral bleaching, slow sea level rises as warmer air, especially in the Arctic and Antarctica and high mountain ranges is melting ice caps and glaciers.
Maybe it is the beginning of the decline of political parties. They present a set of policies, usually, for voters to accept or reject. Or use fear of the competition to gain support. Individuals and small parties will be interested in what their supporters want.
Much more appealing.
True political representatives.
The Tiser says mostly postal votes with some pre polls. Could still be pretty close.
Irene
The count is not over. Although unlikely, it doesn’t look impossible for The Greens to get 7 seat.
will laor go with winteror sombody from the left faction think white will go
Aaron newton @ #585 Tuesday, March 26th, 2024 – 7:19 am
Aaron, word is the Josh Willie, who successfully moved from the upper house this election, is likely to throw his hat in the ring. I wouldnt want to say one candidate is a shoe in to win, but if Willie does nominate he’d probably more likely to get it.
I tried to find footage of both so you can see how they perform.
Here’s Willie in the Upper house a year ago.
https://fb.watch/r1FCMiyTdk/
Here’s Winter in the lower house
https://fb.watch/r1FJ6KBew6/
William – you need to check link for updating Dunstan results. Out of action currently.
Another c 600 votes added on ECSA site.
The Advertiser today on Dunstan:
“The surprise surge, which party scrutineers said included at least 600 extra votes than Electoral Commission records, capped a day of chaos as it buoyed Liberal hopes of an upset victory after Dr Finizio, a lawyer, cut her opponent’s two-party preferred margin by 1.3 per cent to 52.5 per cent.”
How come “extra votes”?
As a long-time lurker here, I’m still surprised at the number of comments supporting Tas Labor folding so quickly in this contest. There’s a clear left-wing path to government here, and it’s nuts to me that a party with a chance at power wouldn’t try to seize it. Tassie is in desperate trouble, and the Libs certainly can’t fix it; now was the time to stand up and show your worth. What’s the point of existing as a party, if you don’t want to govern?
The ALP did everything possible (up to and including putting up legally-dubious election day corflutage at polling booths) to scare people away from voting for indies or minor parties. This clearly didn’t work. About a third of Tasmanians voted 1 indie or minor party, mostly to left-aligned indies or the Greens, and they did this eyes wide open. Minority governments in the future will be more and more common. Labor had better get used to the idea, and accept it – it’s what a lot of us want.
JLN has never formed part of a minority government before, and what happens in the next few weeks will be formative to how voters will see them, and how they will act, in the future. By withdrawing from the contest, Labor is forcing JLN to work with the Libs, and taking away their negotiating power in the process. It’s locking in the concept that Libs + JLN is a thing, and making a future alliance with JLN more difficult. Lambie is still pissed at the Libs because of their fake JLN website, and this was the perfect time to bring JLN into a more left-wing fold. To forcibly push JLN into the arms of the Libs isn’t “smart” politics, it’s political suicide.
And yeah, I remember that the old Labor/Green alliance didn’t work back in 2010. But if something doesn’t work once, maybe you should reflect, learn from your mistakes, and do it better the next time. Refusing to work with any minor party evermore is a way to stay in opposition forever. Tassie is going to get even more trashed over the next four years, and this one’s on Labor.
Part of me wonders, though, whether Tassie Labor just wants to be in permanent opposition. Cushy job, good salary, no responsibilities, no stress. Why would you ever want to deal with running the state? The speed of giving up, after the electorate had trashed the Libs with a 12% swing against, is hard to explain otherwise. It’s so disappointing.
The Advertiser report is puzzling. No such anomaly is showing up on the ECSA website. They mighty just mean that 600 votes were added to the tally late last night (ECSA now shows these as having been added at 11pm Monday). If the Advertiser is correct that most declaration votes counted so far are postals, then it would mean that there are very few pre-polling day postals remaining. Then it will come down to the 5,500 pre-polls. Plus there were also 1300 postal votes issued (but not received by last Friday), some of which will trickle in this week. Maybe another 500 or so? So 6,000 left to go.
It is noticeable that there is a very low informal vote. Only 2%.
If there are approx 5000 votes left to count in Dunstan, it would need to break about 56.5% to the liberals from here on in, which is currently just being achieved on whats been counted of the declarations to date. However, if its been mostly postals counted so far (which all evidence says is the case), it would seem a pretty tall order for them to continue breaking at that rate from prepolls.
Still you never know … could easily be only about 200 or so votes in it at the end. I’m pricing in about an 80-85% chance of labor winning.
Boxes of ballots from China? Check for bamboo fibres!
This was going to happen. SALibs use big data in postal and door knock efforts. And they put the money and effort into postals as they know it is worth it for them. How the prepolls break be interesting.
Boxes of ballots from China? Check for bamboo fibres!
This was going to happen. SALibs use big data in postal and door knock efforts. And they put the money and effort into postals as they know it is worth it for them. How the prepolls break be interesting.
Toorak Toff – there were around 2,400 votes counted yesterday in two batches, but only the first batch of 1800 were reported by ECSA. Scrutineers knew what the result for the other 600 which is what the Advertiser was referring to. I presume ECSA had not done all their final checks on the extra 600 so they weren’t reported until this morning.
Re the Tassie counting schedule, Easter has little to no impact on it. The 10 days under legislation is 10 days, the postals close next Tuesday and it’s off to the races for the preference distribution which they expect to finish by Sat 6th. They have left a few days for any recounts prior to expected declaration on the 10th which would be just in time for failed candidates to run for the LegCo (by one day).
Kevin – I guess I was wrong. But I got April 10 right, particularly if it is really close in some counts.
How do they get public servants to work over Easter?
Over it,
Although Labor has suffered many comprehensive thrashings over the decades, in all states and federally, the last one in Tasmania was different because they got to blame the Greens.
So naturally they did so, and swore never to take the course of action you suggest.
Maybe the opposition benches are just really comfortable.
Labor’s lead in Dunstan down to around 360, with 6,300 declaration votes now counted. With 2000 or so votes still to count, Labor’s lead is probably enough to hold on, but a lot tighter than it looked on Saturday night. Maybe more counting later today?
It appears that Labor picked up around 25 votes from the recheck of polling day votes – these extra votes could yet prove to be very valuable!
What odds the result is a mirror image of 2022?