Post-Dunkley miscellany (open thread)

The Liberals prepare to choose a successor for Scott Morrison in Cook this evening, an event likely to be of greater interest than the by-election itself.

The Dunkley by-election is now out of the way – if the progress of late counting interests you, the Poll Bludger’s live results page and live commentary post will continue ticking over. Another federal by-election now looms on the horizon for a date to be confirmed, though in the probable absence of a Labor candidate it is unlikely to generate as many column inches:

• The Liberals will choose their candidate for the by-election to replace Scott Morrison in Cook this evening, with a close race expected between Carmelo Pesce, Simon Kennedy and Gwen Cherne, the latter being boosted by an endorsement from John Howard (a fourth contender, Benjamin Britton, appears less fancied). Pesce is the subject of an unhelpfully timed report in the Sydney Morning Herald today relating that he participated in a Sutherland Shire council vote on an apartment development after earlier declaring a conflict of interest with the developer.

• Canning mayor Patrick Hall has withdrawn from the Liberal Party’s preselection for the Perth seat of Tangney, saying a controversy in which he is involved would “reflect poorly on the party and the seat of Tangney”, notwithstanding that he is the innocent party to the alleged incident. This came after Jesse Jacobs, a former council colleague of Hall’s, entered the preselection race despite facing charges of stealing Hall’s election campaign signs, following an incident in which Hall personally performed a citizen’s arrest on Jacobs and his co-accused. Other nominees are Mark Wales, SAS veteran and Survivor contestant; Sean Ayres, a former staffer to defeated former member Ben Morton; Howard Ong, a Singapore-born IT consultant; Melville councillor Jennifer Spanbroek; and Bill Koul, owner of an engineering consultancy.

• Victorian Labor Senator Linda White, whose six-year term began after her election in May 2022, died on Friday at the age of 64. White was a former assistant national secretary of the Australian Services Union, and succeeded veteran Kim Carr in the Left-mandated second position on the party’s Victorian ticket.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,889 comments on “Post-Dunkley miscellany (open thread)”

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  1. out of sortssays:
    Friday, March 8, 2024 at 10:56 am
    Entropy says:
    Friday, March 8, 2024 at 10:46 am

    How about France, Denmark, Norway etc?
    Are you still a “peace in our time” person?
    =============================================

    Actual relevance to the Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact?. Which my post was pointing out.

  2. Mavis @Friday, March 8, 2024 at 10:59 am:

    “This is essentially a political blog. Granted this is an open thread but if I were you, I’d go easy on discussing the topic you’ve been warned not to… I’ll leave it at that.”
    ==========

    I’d have thought debates over how far our Government should get involved in wars are definitely political debates, particularly when there is daylight between the positions of the major parties as is the case with Russia-Ukraine – and a chasm between them and the biggest of the minors, it seems.

  3. Fulvio Sammutsays:
    Friday, March 8, 2024 at 11:08 am
    I’m out of here. I may be a while.
    ============================================

    I hope you’re not in a Siberian gulag. As those walks in the snow never end well.

  4. There is no point blaming MAGA for Ukraine’s predicament. The so-called good guys dragged the chain on equipping Ukraine with modern 4+ gen fighters and requisite armour 18 months ago.

    The same ‘good guys’ who also blocked Taiwan from modernising its submarine fleet a decade ago, or equipping itself with new generation air-missile defence systems – even though they were tooting the burgle horn on ‘freedumbs of navigation’ and stoking paranoia just how China had changed under Xi.

    The truth is that even ‘the good guys’ don’t want a real and comprehensive mutual defence arrangement: just just want willing and pliable geopolitical pawns to move around the table.

    Which is why we should simultaneously adopt an echidna strategy, engage with as many allies and potential allies as possible (but be skeptical about their true aims, especially when it comes to america)and engage as positively as possible with potential bad actors as well (but also being skeptical about them as well).

  5. When a country’s on fire, it’s pretty poor form for those which are not to complain about the ruckus being made by those in the inferno. I think quite a few here need a long hard look in the mirror.

  6. Arky

    I’m not calling for William to intervene, I’m reminding MacArthur of his undertakings. Undertakings he himself has reminded us of repeatedly.

    The guy has been pushing the envelope for weeks and I’d had enough.

    Other people get squashed for commenting outside agreed parameters, why should he get a pass?

    If we can’t self-regulate it gets done for us.

  7. C@tmomma:

    Friday, March 8, 2024 at 10:17 am

    [‘What is going on between Russia and Ukraine is the battle between Democracy and Totalitarianism and it should be of concern to us all.’
    ——————————
    This is the case on some level but doesn’t tell the full story. Ukraine was and is at best a “flawed democracy”, whilst Russia is not a democracy. Some people in the West tend to pretend that Ukraine is a Scandinavian style democracy or something when there is no evidence for that. Ukraine is more democratic than Russia but it certainly was and is not a beacon of democracy.

  8. Rewisays:
    Friday, March 8, 2024 at 11:29 am
    ======================================================

    So he is passionate for a cause. Just scroll through it if it is no interest to you. Unless you are a supporter of Putin’s Russia what he writes is hardly offensive?.

  9. Rewi @ Friday, March 8, 2024 at 11:29 am:
    ================

    Frustrating to see someone ignore the rules in a space you care about, eh? Imagine how Ukrainians feel seeing such widespread disregard around the world for Russia’s transgressions against the rules in their space. Crimea river.

  10. “when there is no evidence for that. Ukraine is more democratic than Russia but it certainly was and is not a beacon of democracy.”

    I call this BS. Huge evidence that Ukraine is far more democratic than Russia. The fact that the opposition often win elections there. Is all the proof you need.

  11. “when there is no evidence for that. Ukraine is more democratic than Russia but it certainly was and is not a beacon of democracy.”

    I call this BS. Huge evidence that Ukraine is very democratic. The fact that the opposition often win elections there. Is all the proof you need. Check out how many different Presidents they have had voted out in the last few elections.

    Note: Sorry for post above which is not a correct reply, due to my misreading of statement.

  12. Entropy

    The same argument could be made of discussions of Gaza.

    I’m happy for a free for all on all subjects.

    Have at it, if that’s what you want, but be consistent.

  13. Don’t get me wrong Entropy, Ukraine is far more of a democracy than Russia is. I’m just saying that it is not a liberal democracy as we know in the West.

  14. All I can say is Putin is not Russia, and Russia will also be victorious in getting rid of this pathetic excuse of a person.

  15. Rewisays:
    Friday, March 8, 2024 at 11:36 am
    Entropy

    The same argument could be made of discussions of Gaza.

    I’m happy for a free for all on all subjects.

    Have at it, if that’s what you want, but be consistent.
    =======================================================

    Opinion on Gaza is very divided on here though. Is there actually anyone on here who actually supports the side of Putin’s Russia though?. If not it is far less likely to go where the other topic ends up going.

  16. On a different subject altogether, the reporting of the Samantha Murphy case. The reporting on the accused killer is so hyper focussed on him being the son of a former AFL footballer, it feels pretty icky. Like any moment they’re going to just asking the family whether they ever saw the alleged killer’s Dad play and are they fans.

  17. Even though the name of the accused killer of Samantha Murphy, was out in the media yesterday. A temporary suppression order was put in. Now lifted. His name and image are out in the public.

  18. Rewi @ Friday, March 8, 2024 at 11:38 am:

    “MacArthur

    You are consistent. I have never seen you advocate that the discussion of Gaza should be censored here.”
    =================

    Rewi, you have my view absolutely correct. But I’m not the boss here. I accept that, just as so many Ukrainians have had to accept they are no longer the bosses over so much of their own land. And that they have never been the bosses of other nations, whether friend or foe. All they can do is fight hard and raise their voices for help when they know they need it.

  19. S. Simpsonsays:
    Friday, March 8, 2024 at 11:42 am
    Don’t get me wrong Entropy, Ukraine is far more of a democracy than Russia is. I’m just saying that it is not a liberal democracy as we know in the West.
    ====================================================

    I’m not sure how you judge which democracy is better or worse. I always find the ability to vote out a Government a good measure. Though on that measure Italy could be the greatest democracy on earth. So if it occurs to frequently it might not be great too.

  20. Entropy

    So we should only debate issues that are not hotly contested?

    I think you’ll find that, if we all let loose, the debate over the extent to which the West and its allies should get involved would be equally fierce.

    This morning was the first time discussion turned to active consideration of deploying troops.

    By all means, if the considered opinion of Bludgers is that we should have a free for all on that topic, let’s go.

  21. Ukraine of a certainty more democratic and more of a country where rule of law applies…. relative to Russia anyhow. Probably a bit dysfunctional on some levels. Historically corruption a big problem and I guess still is. Nowhere is perfect and frankly I have serious questions as to whether the US is actually a functional democracy. ☹️.

    The bottom line though is that If Russia beats Ukraine there will be general war in Europe in the foreseeable future. We have seen in Ukraine the extent to which Russian rulers are willing to lose people and equipment to achieve their aims. Scary.

  22. S. Simpson:

    “Some people in the West tend to pretend that Ukraine is a Scandinavian style democracy or something when there is no evidence for that. Ukraine is more democratic than Russia but it certainly was and is not a beacon of democracy.”

    I’ve never heard anyone say that Ukraine is a Scandinavian style democracy, or a beacon of democracy. As a functional democracy under assault from a brutal dictator and mass murderer, does Ukraine need to be either in order for us to care?

  23. Poking around on the SMH website, I discovered that the odious Graham Richardson is a “Cranbrook parent”; one who is opposed to coeducation. This says it all; doesn’t it?

    Richo has certainly come a long way from the “love boat” saga to become a respectable parent of a boy at an exclusive eastern suburbs school.

  24. Western Silence on Gaza Proves Global Order Self Serving – Anwar
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/western-silence-on-gaza-proves-global-order-self-serving-anwar-20240307-p5faii

    The Gareth Evans Oration at ANU
    ‘Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim warned against the “selective” application of the international rules-based order, contrasting demands for China to abide by maritime law or Russia to withdraw from Ukraine to the West staying “utterly silent” on Israel’s war that has killed thousands of Palestinians.
    Wrapping up a state visit to Australia, Dr Anwar gave qualified praise to Australia, along with New Zealand and Canada, for shifting position to call for an immediate humanitarian ceasefire in Gaza.

    Dr Anwar, one of the region’s most prominent Muslim leaders, also revealed Prime Minister Anthony Albanese had listened “attentively” to his pleas to restore $6 million of Australian funding to the United Nations’ Palestinian refuge agency, UNRWA, when they met this week.
    “Unfortunately, the gut-wrenching tragedy that continues to unfold in the Gaza Strip has laid bare the self-serving nature of the much valued, much vaunted rules-based order,” Dr Anwar said while delivering the Gareth Evans Oration at Australian National University on Thursday.
    “The responses by the West to human suffering defies it. Why, for example, has the West been so vociferous, vehement and unequivocal in the condemnation of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, while remaining utterly silent on the relentless bloodletting inflicted on women and children in Gaza?”’

    Most ASEAN and the non Western world would agree.

  25. I’ve been meaning to ask this for a while as I haven’t seen much reporting and don’t follow it close. What’s happening with the NACC?

    Not a loaded question, genuinely curious. Is it stuck in an assessment of cases after the initial flurry of submissions? Is it doing a lot of legwork on investigations? Has there been any findings that I’ve missed?

  26. S. Simpson @ #1807 Friday, March 8th, 2024 – 11:33 am

    C@tmomma:

    Friday, March 8, 2024 at 10:17 am

    [‘What is going on between Russia and Ukraine is the battle between Democracy and Totalitarianism and it should be of concern to us all.’
    ——————————
    This is the case on some level but doesn’t tell the full storey. Ukraine was and is at best a “flawed democracy”, whilst Russia is not a democracy. Some people in the West tend to pretend that Ukraine is a Scandinavian style democracy or something when there is no evidence for that. Ukraine is more democratic than Russia but it certainly was and is not a beacon of democracy.

    The problem with this analysis is that that is exactly what Ukraine is fighting for. It wants to become a member state of the EU. It wants to become a member of NATO. It wants to leave its corruption behind. It wants to have free and fair elections. It no longer wants to be a ‘flawed democracy’. THAT is what it is fighting for.

  27. Stuart @ #1825 Friday, March 8th, 2024 – 11:56 am

    Poking around on the SMH website, I discovered that the odious Graham Richardson is a “Cranbrook parent”; one who is opposed to coeducation. This says it all; doesn’t it?

    Richo has certainly come a long way from the “love boat” saga to become a respectable parent of a boy at an exclusive eastern suburbs school.

    And the father of a KC.

  28. Irene, are you talking about this ‘Western sikence(sic)’?

    The U.S. military will build a temporary port and pier on Gaza’s coastline to provide a new route for humanitarian aid, President Biden is set to announce in his State of the Union address Thursday evening, according to senior administration officials. The officials, speaking on condition of anonymity under ground rules set by the White House, said the plan is part of Biden’s orders to “flood the zone” with assistance arriving by air, land and sea.

    The planned port’s main feature will be a temporary pier that “will provide the capacity for hundreds of additional truckloads of assistance each day,” with shipments coming through Cyprus, a senior administration official said. The plan will include coordination with Israelis on security requirements on land, as well as with the U.N. and humanitarian organizations to distribute the aid. It will take a “number of weeks” to plan and execute, the official said.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/03/07/israel-hamas-war-news-gaza-palestine/

  29. C@tmomma @ Friday, March 8, 2024 at 12:08 pm:

    “… that is exactly what Ukraine is fighting for. It wants to become a member state of the EU. It wants to become a member of NATO. It wants to leave its corruption behind. It wants to have free and fair elections. It no longer wants to be a ‘flawed democracy’. THAT is what it is fighting for.”
    =============

    Hear, hear! I will add that the elements of the Ukrainian elites and Ukrainian civil society which have been the greatest handbrakes against the development of mature liberal democracy and, most especially, the rule of law have been either Russian or Russophilic. The greatest impetus for the development of democracy and the rule of law has been the desire to meet EU requirements so as to achieve EU membership. Facts about the inadequacy of Ukrainian democracy are, in fact, evidence in support of arguments for more Western help for them to repel corrupt, autocratic Russia’s invasion, not less.

  30. imaccasays:
    Friday, March 8, 2024 at 11:54 am
    Ukraine of a certainty more democratic and more of a country where rule of law applies…. relative to Russia anyhow. Probably a bit dysfunctional on some levels. Historically corruption a big problem and I guess still is. Nowhere is perfect and frankly I have serious questions as to whether the US is actually a functional democracy. ☹️.
    ======================================================

    Fair points, there is still lots of corruption in Ukraine as it was inherited from the USSR and old habits die hard. To what extent does this corruption affect their democracy. From what i can see not hugely. As people all seem to be able to vote freely and the media as far as i know covers both sides of the political debate there.

    There does seem to belief by some if you have a properly working democracy you will have low levels of corruption too. I don’t think the two necessarily follow. For instance Singapore is hardly a democracy but probably has very low levels of corruption. While India is a democracy but has very high levels of corruption. So i don’t think you can judge how fair a countries democracy is by levels of other problems that occur in that country. For instance both USA and Mexico are still democracies currently but have some of the highest murder rates in the world. While India has some of most shoddy vehicle standards plus road law adherence and as a consequence probably the highest vehicle accident rates in the world but is also a democracy.

  31. Kevin Bonham@kevinbonham:

    #YouGov federal ALP 32 L-NP 37 Green 15 ON 6 IND/other 10
    2PP 52-48 to ALP (=)
    My 2PP conversion off these primaries 52.0 (+0.1)

  32. Thanks Hh and KB.

    I see Labor’s primary vote is stagnant in the low 30’s.

    They clearly need to give more ground to the Teal and Greens on legislation.

  33. BREAKING: Fifth mass coral bleaching event in 8 years driven by global heating confirmed on Great Barrier Reef https://t.co/P2sscdp2ec— Graham Readfearn (@readfearn) March 8, 2024

    This is due to people continuing to vote for parties that invest in, take direction and take political donations from the fossil fuel industry.

  34. If Ukraine were to join the EU, which I am not opposed to, they would need to first demonstrate to the EU that the Ukrainian state respects the rights of minority groups such as Russians, Hungarians, Romanians etc. That would entail marginalising the far-right Banderite element found in parts of Ukrainian civil society.

  35. Stuart says:
    Friday, March 8, 2024 at 11:56 am
    Poking around on the SMH website, I discovered that the odious Graham Richardson is a “Cranbrook parent”; one who is opposed to coeducation. This says it all; doesn’t it?

    Richo has certainly come a long way from the “love boat” saga to become a respectable parent of a boy at an exclusive eastern suburbs school.
    —————-
    A past NSW right faction Federal Labor Senator who has moved to supporting the Liberals. And their agenda of supporting business and wealthy people.
    He certainly did in a recent election, can’t remember if it was in 2016, 2019 or 2022.

    Not much difference between right faction Labor policies and Liberal polices.
    Richardson now lives in the electorate of Wentworth, NSW.
    He has been a political commentator on Sky News Australia. And with Alan Jones.

  36. So, let’s have no more of this nonsense about Labor being serious about climate…

    Rex Patrick
    @MrRexPatrick
    #SmokingGun: A new #FOI release shows that when Minister Plibersek signed off on introducing the Sea Dumping Amendment Bill into Parliament, she knew its sole purpose was to facilitate future gas developments. She also knew exactly who she was working for: Santos 1/3

    Santos’ Barossa project, with its 18% C02 content, will be Australia’s dirtiest LNG project. The Sea Dumping Act changes were ‘necessary’ to allow C02 from Barossa to be stored in Bayu-Undan using CCS technologies (that don’t actually work at industrial scales). 2/3

    The International Energy Agency has declared that the pathway to net zero by 2050 requires that no new oil and gas fields get approved. No ifs or buts!

    And yet
    @AlboMP ’s Government is wilfully facilitating new oil and gas fields. ‍♂️ 3/3

    https://twitter.com/MrRexPatrick/status/1765835638132334703

  37. S. Simpsonsays:
    Friday, March 8, 2024 at 12:32 pm
    If Ukraine were to join the EU, which I am not opposed to, they would need to first demonstrate to the EU that the Ukrainian state respects the rights of minority groups such as Russians, Hungarians, Romanians etc. That would entail marginalising the far-right Banderite element found in parts of Ukrainian civil society.
    ==================================================

    There President, while jewish. is a Russian speaking Jew. There is no evidence i can see that discrimination exists against native Russian speakers. Considering one was voted in as President.

    A country that is willing to vote in a person as President from an ethnic/religious minority, in this case Jewish. Plus a person whose native tongue is not Ukrainian, in this case Russian. To me seems to have a lot less racial discrimination problems than most EU countries. Possibly Ukraine should be teaching countries like Hungary and Poland lesson on this and not the other way around.

  38. S. Simpson @ Friday, March 8, 2024 at 12:32 pm:

    “If Ukraine were to join the EU, which I am not opposed to, they would need to first demonstrate to the EU that the Ukrainian state respects the rights of minority groups such as Russians, Hungarians, Romanians etc.”
    ==============

    Yes. The EU is on the case about that, rest assured. It is one of the seven criteria the EU set down for Ukraine to fulfil for EU accession. When the EU Commission ticks off on this, you can be guaranteed Ukraine has done the necessary work here.

  39. NYT
    Not possible to comment on

    It’s fair to say that George Santos is one of the main attractions on the floor ahead of the speech. Republicans who were publicly critical of the serial fabulist when he served in Congress are taking pictures of him. Others are going up to greet him warmly. I venture to say he is holding court.

    There really is no hope.. between SCOTUS & Santos & rapist Trump.. & 200million idiots …

  40. C@tmomma says:
    Friday, March 8, 2024 at 12:15 pm
    Irene, are you talking about this ‘Western sikence(sic)’?
    —————
    I am not talking. Anwar Ibrahim, Prime Minister of Malaysia is.
    (Thought I had corrected ‘silence’).

    The parcel dropping is nothing. Will not reach many of the over 1million starving. It is thought that well organised gangs get there first before any children or civilians.

    I am amazed you think dropping food, American dinners I believe, building a port for more trucks to bring in food,..…..is in any way showing support for Palestinians when a withdrawal of the IDF and ceasefire, agreement to a Palestinian state is the basic requirement.

    The killings will continue amongst the rubble and horrendous conditions.

    The question Anwar is asking is why isn’t the US and its supporters not criticising Israel as loudly as they criticise Russia. And for that matter China.

    Can you answer that?

    Good to see the loyal supporters of the USA justify the US war in Gaza.

    Will write no more on this.

  41. Puzzling to see some here warning against the dangers of Oz getting involved in international conflict…
    Ever since the time of the Sudan through to the present day, Oz has been involved in international conflicts.
    Of course, the conservatives are wedged on this point as they keep telling us, when it comes to climate change, that ‘we are too small to make any difference’ but not too small to send troops here, a warship there and a plane to some other trouble spot. When it comes to this military contribution apparently we are never too small.

  42. Went looking to see what penalties apply to people calling a cop “a black bastard” in the UK. The only similar example i found was this. When a cop called a teenager a “black bastard”. As far as i can see this language directed to a cop never ended up in court cases in the past. Though i do note Kerr denies using the word “bastard”. So that is in dispute too.

    “A policeman who was sacked after calling a teenage suspect a ‘black bastard’ has been given his job back after an appeal to the Home Secretary.

    Thousands of police officers signed a petition demanding the reinstatement of Metropolitan Police officer Steve Hutt.

    Scotland Yard said Mr Hutt – who was dismissed in February 1999 – would instead be fined 13 days’ pay.

    Mr Hutt was ‘absolutely delighted’ by the decision, said Pc Norman Brennan, one of his main supporters and campaigners.”

    https://www.thefreelibrary.com/Policeman+in+%27black+bastard%27+jibe+reinstated-a068359820

  43. Rex Douglas says:
    Friday, March 8, 2024 at 12:40 pm
    So, let’s have no more of this nonsense about Labor being serious about climate…

    Rex Patrick
    @MrRexPatrick
    #SmokingGun: A new #FOI release shows that when Minister Plibersek signed off on introducing the Sea Dumping Amendment Bill into Parliament, she knew its sole purpose was to facilitate future gas developments. She also knew exactly who she was working for: Santos 1/3
    ——————
    Thanks for this Rex.
    Santos are big donors to the Labor Party. As well as Labor having no intention to reduce CO2 emissions.

    And Carbon Capture and Storage technology to do the job effectively doesn’t exist. Labor are fooling Australians if they are using that as an excuse to continue new gas.

    From the Guardian. January 2023. Santos was the third-largest fossil fuels donor last year, a company pursuing five new major oil and gas developments including the deeply controversial Barossa and Narrabri projects.”

    And conveniently for Australia the gas?? will be permanently sequestered near Timor Leste. We are poor neighbours to Timor Leste.

    Yes. Business as usual for the ALP, the Alternate Liberal Party.
    In so many of their policies.

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