The Dunkley by-election is now out of the way – if the progress of late counting interests you, the Poll Bludger’s live results page and live commentary post will continue ticking over. Another federal by-election now looms on the horizon for a date to be confirmed, though in the probable absence of a Labor candidate it is unlikely to generate as many column inches:
• The Liberals will choose their candidate for the by-election to replace Scott Morrison in Cook this evening, with a close race expected between Carmelo Pesce, Simon Kennedy and Gwen Cherne, the latter being boosted by an endorsement from John Howard (a fourth contender, Benjamin Britton, appears less fancied). Pesce is the subject of an unhelpfully timed report in the Sydney Morning Herald today relating that he participated in a Sutherland Shire council vote on an apartment development after earlier declaring a conflict of interest with the developer.
• Canning mayor Patrick Hall has withdrawn from the Liberal Party’s preselection for the Perth seat of Tangney, saying a controversy in which he is involved would “reflect poorly on the party and the seat of Tangney”, notwithstanding that he is the innocent party to the alleged incident. This came after Jesse Jacobs, a former council colleague of Hall’s, entered the preselection race despite facing charges of stealing Hall’s election campaign signs, following an incident in which Hall personally performed a citizen’s arrest on Jacobs and his co-accused. Other nominees are Mark Wales, SAS veteran and Survivor contestant; Sean Ayres, a former staffer to defeated former member Ben Morton; Howard Ong, a Singapore-born IT consultant; Melville councillor Jennifer Spanbroek; and Bill Koul, owner of an engineering consultancy.
• Victorian Labor Senator Linda White, whose six-year term began after her election in May 2022, died on Friday at the age of 64. White was a former assistant national secretary of the Australian Services Union, and succeeded veteran Kim Carr in the Left-mandated second position on the party’s Victorian ticket.
That’s the second former Survivor contestant to run in a contest for the Liberals.
The CEO and director of the Bureau of Meteorology, Andrew Johnson, revealed to staff the cost of its delayed IT overhaul – one of Australia’s most expensive ever – despite repeatedly telling senators such details must be kept under wraps for cabinet secrecy reasons.
Johnson declined senators’ requests in October to disclose the cost of the bureau’s computer upgrade, labelled Robust. He again rejected such calls during Senate estimates on Tuesday, telling the South Australian Greens senator Barbara Pocock: “I wish I could tell you, but as a cabinet decision … I’m not at liberty to disclose those to you.”
However, in January 2023, Johnson detailed to staff the project’s initial and ongoing costs, according to a video of his speech at an Australia Day awards event seen by Guardian Australia.
“The initial program we got up – I think we can probably almost talk about it now – [was] nearly a billion dollars in funds, a billion dollars over four-ish years. It’s a huge amount of money especially for a little agency like us. “So to even get to the starting blocks to get this quantum of investment required an enormous effort,” Johnson said. “In my experience, [it was] one of the largest, most comprehensive, multidisciplinary, whole of agency, whole of government efforts.”
Johnson then told staffers that “some of you will be aware” the bureau had secured “another billion in new funding over the decade ahead”. At the time of his speech, spending was already two years into the 10-year period, and was “starting off slow [but then] the serious money really kicks in”.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/mar/04/bom-chief-indicates-cost-of-it-overhaul-to-staff-after-refusing-to-disclose-to-senators
“Jesse Jacobs … entered the preselection race despite facing charges of stealing Hall’s election campaign signs, following an incident in which Hall personally performed a citizen’s arrest on Jacobs and his co-accused.”
What a rabble!
“Johnson declined senators’ requests in October to disclose the cost of the bureau’s computer upgrade, labelled Robust.”
Robust-debt? 😉
Malaysia’s government said Sunday it may renew the hunt for missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 after a U.S. technology firm proposed a fresh search in the southern Indian Ocean where the plane is believed to have crashed a decade ago.
Transport Minister Anthony Loke said Texas-based Ocean Infinity has proposed another “no find, no fee” basis to scour the seabeds, expanding from the site where it first searched in 2018. He said he has invited the company to meet him to evaluate new scientific evidence it has to find the plane’s final resting place. If the evidence is credible, he said, he will seek Cabinet’s approval to sign a new contract with Ocean Infinity to resume the search. “The government is steadfast in our resolve to locate MH370,” Loke told a remembrance event to mark the 10th anniversary of the disappearance of the jet. “We really hope the search can find the plane and provide truth to the next-of-kin.”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/mar/03/trump-confuses-obama-biden-virginia-rally
Bit hard to complain your opponent’s mistakes are age-related when you continually make your own gaffes.
John Black gets mixed reviews for his election analysis – here he has a go at Dunkley results.
Now, let’s look at the swings, booth by booth in Dunkley, weighted for vote. It’s important to note here that we’re looking at the range of swings, which was around 15 per cent for the major parties.
When we ranked the primary vote swings to the Liberal candidate Nathan Conroy, we found the biggest pro-Liberal swings in booths containing male construction workers, particularly tradies who drove a truck to work. It’s probably fair to conclude Labor’s “Ute Tax” wasn’t a big hit in a seat containing 1½ times the national average of construction workers.
Booths swinging against the Liberals contained more voters aged 40 and above, men and women with bachelor and post-graduate degrees, finance sector workers and the better paid workers generally on more than $200,000 a year. And, I don’t know how to break this gently Nathan, so I won’t, but booths containing lots of Irish-born women didn’t seem that keen on you, either.
Labor’s Belyea hoovered up the top end of town from both the Liberals and the Greens. These included retirees on big super funds, professionals, graduates and post grads and those working from home, along with workers in the creative arts, healthcare or finance.
Those booths swinging from Labor included the tradies and ute men moving to the Liberals and our big mainstream stereotypes of working families and the digitally disrupted workers – those in blue-collar and white-collar jobs most threatened by technological change.
But there were also clusters of swing voter groups, such as 20-something and 30-something families, some with low to average incomes on Family Tax benefits and some in the more aspirational third income quartile, with a smattering of migrants. If Labor loses these voters in 2025, it’s in genuine trouble in its outer-suburban seats across the country.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/dunkley-exposes-further-shift-away-from-major-parties-20240303-p5f9dw
And John Black on the Greens disaster in Dunkley…
The Green gains across the booths were pretty non-existent, with maximum booth swing of zero in Carrum Downs Central, but it’s fair to say the party’s losses were minimal among unskilled blue-collar workers. I suspect this was due to the absence at the by-election of One Nation and United Australia Party candidates, who won these demographics in 2022. Their absence seems to have saved the Greens even more serious post-election trauma.
In terms of losses, the Greens basically lost all their higher socioeconomic status voters: the professionals, the post graduates, the scientists, the better paid. They even lost most heavily among their Green 2019 voters. It was a pretty scary list for the Greens really and virtually all of them headed to Labor, to make up for the continued exodus of Labor’s blue-collar workers to the Liberals.
Jeez… has anyone told Trump that Obama isn’t the president anymore & told Biden he’s not airdropping food to the Ukraine … some choice the voters have
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/morrison-might-not-have-held-a-hose-but-dutton-doesn-t-hold-a-policy-20240303-p5f9em.html
And Dunkley voters be like: ‘meh’.
The swing the Liberals got was because Palmer’s and Hanson’s parties didn’t run. But they will next year, and what then?
Educated professionals can see through all the low rent stunts and rhetoric.
so speakman must not have felt the liberals have much chance of returning to governmentfederaly if he decided not to run in cook so the next option is the local mayor
But there were also clusters of swing voter groups, such as 20-something and 30-something families, some with low to average incomes on Family Tax benefits and some in the more aspirational third income quartile, with a smattering of migrants. If Labor loses these voters in 2025, it’s in genuine trouble in its outer-suburban seats across the country.
The point was made on Insiders yesterday that Labor has to counter the scare campaign from the Liberals on the ‘Ute Tax’. Firstly by pointing out the numbers from the Automotive Industry that the Coalition are touting, are specious.
Those on low to middle incomes will benefit from the tax cuts and an interest rate cut or two before the federal election.
The migrant demographic need to be reminded that the Coalition are morphing into a Trumpist Anti Migration party, with their rhetoric laying the blame for the housing crisis at their feet. Also, Labor needs to remind them of the Coalition’s staunch support for Israel, especially as it applies to Western Sydney seats that Labor holds. These are things that may help keep some of them in the tent for Labor by the federal election next year.
Gabrielius Landsbergis, Lithuania’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, has commented on the Russian attack on a multi-storey apartment building in Odesa on the night of 1-2 March, which claimed the lives of three children, among other civilians.
“This is absolutely outrageous murder. By deliberately killing babies in their sleep, Russia is declaring a clear contempt for any peace agreements, past or future,” Landsbergis wrote. He added that there must be “serious and immediate consequences” for Russia, “not continued impunity”.
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/03/3/7444787/
He is rapidly becoming my favourite European political figure (within the EU).
“ In terms of losses, the Greens basically lost all their higher socioeconomic status voters: the professionals, the post graduates, the scientists, the better paid.”
______
Probably because the current Greens lineup reminds the professional class of the ‘warrior’ student politicians disrupting campus and generally being annoying with no purpose beyond blowing hard from their university days.
I wonder why that is?
Macarthur,
What can NATO countries do, besides comment about Russia?
And continue supplying Ukraine with arms, of course.
C@tmomma @ Monday, March 4, 2024 at 7:28 am:
“Macarthur,
What can NATO countries do, besides comment about Russia?”
=======================
C@tmomma, I think what Landsbergis has been calling for is for NATO countries further west of the Vistula to finally removed their timid hiding behind self-imposed red lines regarding supply of munitions to Ukraine. Specifically, moving past bureaucratic delays in ammunition procurement, and greenlighting decent long-range missile capability. (F-16’s are already in train.) I would add the immediate confiscation of all $300B or so of frozen Russian assets for both military aid and long term reconstruction. Finally, I think NATO countries should rule out any peace negotiations with Russia while it is still ruled by any war criminal, including and especially Vladimir Putin. That is not an exhaustive list, but it’s enough for NATO to be getting on with right now
Appalling behaviour. At an event attended by tens of thousands of people, someone could’ve been seriously injured or worse had they been hit by a flare.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/pro-palestinian-protesters-charged-following-mardi-gras-incident-20240303-p5f9c0.html
The problem is they can’t win back Teal seats while being anti-science, anti-women, inward-looking and always pitching to the lowest common denominator.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-04/dunkley-by-election-dutton-strategy-didnt-materialise/103539644
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
In this review of the Dunkley byelection, Patricia Karvelas writes, “the celebratory speeches at the Liberal Party function did appear incongruous with the stark reality — despite Australians suffering a decline in their material living standards, the government’s primary vote held up. How could that be?”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-04/dunkley-by-election-dutton-strategy-didnt-materialise/103539644
“Morrison might not have held a hose, but Dutton doesn’t hold a policy”, writes Peter Hartcher who says that all the Liberals managed to do was to rearrange the right-wing vote temporarily without laying a glove on Labor.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/morrison-might-not-have-held-a-hose-but-dutton-doesn-t-hold-a-policy-20240303-p5f9em.html
The Coalition should have used the Sunday morning after Dunkley to start talking about an alternative economic narrative that would have broad appeal in both blue-collar battler seats and blue-blood teal seats, declares the AFR’s editorial which says the Liberals went down market after Dunkley.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/the-liberals-go-downmarket-after-dunkley-20240226-p5f7ra
Disappointed Liberals have expressed frustration at a lack of policy options from the federal opposition, as both major parties sought to take positives from the Dunkley byelection result, say James Massola and Paul Sakkal.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/liberals-say-they-have-a-mountain-to-climb-after-dunkley-loss-20240303-p5f9cw.html
The Australian reckons Peter Dutton will unveil pre-budget nuclear power plan after the Dunkley by-election loss.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/peter-dutton-to-unveil-prebudget-nuclear-power-plan-after-dunkley-byelection-loss/news-story/132ada8b54e0f11611c3af31ab505143?amp=
Meanwhile, AGL Energy has earmarked a site midway between Sydney and Adelaide to provide nearly 20 per cent of renewables it needs to complete its energy transition, marking its biggest move in green energy since billionaire Mike Cannon-Brookes became its largest shareholder.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/agl-plots-mega-renewable-energy-development-as-transition-plans-accelerate/news-story/c28f3b3d31b25768e1daace8912fcedb?amp=
Dunkley shows the Liberal party’s ‘more of the same’ is not a path to government, writes Paul Karp who concludes his contribution with, “The danger for the Coalition is that a swing of a bit more than 3 or 4% is just enough to convince them they’re on track to shake the Albanese government loose, but not enough to prompt them to craft any solutions of their own. Perhaps they won’t need policy, perhaps the scares will be enough. All we can say with certainty is: tonight, they were not.”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2024/mar/02/dunkley-shows-the-liberal-partys-more-of-the-same-is-not-a-path-to-government
Michelle Grattan wonders if Dunkley tell Peter Dutton he should give more attention to the former Liberal heartland.
https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-does-dunkley-tell-peter-dutton-he-should-give-more-attention-to-the-former-liberal-heartland-224936
Peter Dutton says credible policies on the economy, tax and climate change will help win back Liberal voters as he rejected suggestions he had given up on the teal electorates and was trying to win government with a sole focus on the suburbs and regions, writes Phil Coorey.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/dutton-talks-up-hopes-to-win-back-teal-seats-20240302-p5f9aw
Phil Coorey reckons that almost a year since controversial Liberal MP Stuart Robert quit the parliament, Peter Dutton will fill the outer shadow cabinet vacancy with a reshuffle to be as small as possible to minimise the potential for internal unrest.’
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/dutton-to-keep-reshuffle-to-a-minimum-20240228-p5f8l1
Labor has reason to be pleased by a moderately sized swing against the government in the Dunkley byelection, but with no knockout blow, says Jennifer Hewett.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/albanese-claims-vindication-as-well-as-victory-20240303-p5f9co
Pollsters say conservative lobby group Advance was the biggest loser out of the Dunkley byelection given that despite its $300,000 ad spend, Labor did not lose paint on its primary vote, and that the result brings into question the group’s role in promoting the No vote during the Voice referendum.
https://www.afr.com/politics/victorian-liberals-advance-in-disarray-after-dunkley-loss-20240303-p5f9cf
Dutton will claim a moral victory, but the true moral of the story is different writes James Massola.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/dutton-will-claim-a-moral-victory-the-true-moral-of-the-story-is-different-20240303-p5f9ca.html
Alan Kohler writes that the cost-of-living crisis is all about housing, so it’s probably permanent.
https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/opinion/2024/03/04/alan-kohler-cost-of-living-housing
The stage 3 tax cuts always were irresponsible, and still are. They’ve caused interest rates to be raised by more than needed, and they’ll plunge us into deficit and debt, argues Ross Gittins. He says only an irresponsible (Coalition) government would commit themselves to making a huge tax cut of a specified shape more than six years ahead of an unknowable future, hoping they could trick Labor into making itself an easy political target by opposing them.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/contrary-to-appearances-the-stage-3-tax-cuts-will-leave-us-worse-off-20240303-p5f9dk.html
The situation for growers is so dire that more than a third are considering walking away from their farming business, according to a submission to the Senate supermarket pricing inquiry.
https://www.theage.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/australia-s-vegetable-industry-in-serious-jeopardy-suppliers-warn-20240301-p5f925.html
The Federal Government last week launched a new influencer-led social media campaign to discourage vaping among young people, warning that social media is “awash” with pro-vaping content, writes Charles Maskell-Knight.
https://johnmenadue.com/greater-efforts-are-needed-to-tackle-a-staggering-increase-in-vaping-rates/
China’s leading spy agency has been revealed as the organisation behind the sustained targeting of Australians detailed by the nation’s spy chief in his annual threat assessment. Nick McKenzie writes that in an exclusive interview with the SMH and 60 Minutes, ASIO Director General Mike Burgess has separately hit back at calls for him to identify the “traitor” ex-politician who he accused of betraying the nation in last week’s threat assessment.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/china-revealed-as-country-behind-spy-chief-s-unnamed-a-team-20240303-p5f9cr.html
Shane Wright argues that we have changed our spending habits so dramatically that inflation has to be recalculated.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/from-dough-to-dogs-how-the-pandemic-changed-our-spending-habits-20240301-p5f922.html
The family of Kumanjayi Walker complained to the media standards watchdog in 2022 about The Australian’s coverage of the Warlpiri man’s death, questioning why the journalist responsible had not disclosed her personal relationship with Zachary Rolfe in her articles. But the Australian Press Council decided not to investigate the 2022 complaint, saying it considered it was “unlikely that a breach of [its] standards of practice has occurred”.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/mar/03/kumanjayi-walkers-familys-complaint-about-the-australians-coverage-not-investigated-by-media-watchdog-ntwnfb
Caroline Lucas still is reeling from Rishi Sunak’s shameless, dangerous speech which she says was a masterclass in gaslighting and made a new art form of rank hypocrisy.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/mar/03/sunak-speech-protest-tories-friday-no-10-caroline-lucas
Geoffrey Roberston wants Putin to be put on trial for humanity to be the judge.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/put-this-monster-on-trial-let-humanity-be-the-judge-20240301-p5f8zq.html
With an entirely preventable outbreak of measles spreading across Florida, medical experts are questioning if quackery really has become official health policy in the nation’s third most-populous state. America is f****d!
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/mar/03/florida-measles-outbreak-preventable
Cartoon Corner
Peter Broelman
David Rowe
Megan Herbert
Matt Golding
Jim Pavlidis
Glen Le Lievre with a gif
https://twitter.com/i/status/1763753800236720302
Alan Moir
Mark Knight
Spooner
From the US
About five million Australians on social security payments will receive a cash boost when indexation kicks in later this month. People on the age pension, disability support pension and carer payment will receive an extra $19.60 a fortnight for singles and $29.40 for couples every two weeks, starting March 20. The maximum rate of pension will rise to $1,116.30 for singles and $1,682.80 for couples a fortnight. Those receiving rent assistance, JobSeeker, single parenting payments and ABSTUDY will also see an increase in their payments. At the end of the month, single JobSeeker recipients with no kids, and people aged over 22 on ABSTUDY, will pocket an extra $13.50 per fortnight.
The single parenting payment will also go up by $17.50 a fortnight, bringing total fortnightly payments to just over $1,000.
An extra 77,000 parents are now on a higher rate of payment after eligibility was expanded last year to cover parents with a youngest child under 14. Each member of a couple will get an an additional $12.30 per fortnight.Ms Rishworth said the government’s “number one” priority was addressing inflation and cost-of-living pressures.
Peter Dutton will announce the Coalition’s signature energy policy before the May federal budget, including a plan identifying potential sites for small modular nuclear reactors as future net-zero power sources.
In the wake of the Dunkley by-election result which returned the seat to Labor against a 3.56 per cent swing, the Coalition will refocus its attack on the government’s contested path to net zero as part of a full-scale assault on Anthony Albanese’s handling of the cost-of-living crisis.
The Australian understands that the Opposition Leader will unveil plans for a nuclear-powered future as the first instalment of a pre-budget economic reform program ahead of the next election. The energy policy announcement will identify potential locations for small modular nuclear reactors and detail plans for safety standards, regulation and waste disposal.
It is understood the opposition will “be bold with policy, but not reckless” as it also begins a gradual rollout of economic policy, amid criticism it has failed to provide an alternative path to financial relief for households.
It comes as Liberal and National MPs are pushing for the rollout of bold reforms on housing, workplace relations, migration, tax and energy policy to cut through to voters in the wake of Labor’s victory at the Dunkley by-election.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/peter-dutton-to-unveil-prebudget-nuclear-power-plan-after-dunkley-byelection-loss/news-story/132ada8b54e0f11611c3af31ab505143?amp
Cat
“Macarthur,
What can NATO countries do, besides comment about Russia?”
Further to Macarthur’s comments, western European countries can do a lot more for Ukraine. Relative to their economy, western Europe has not done much yet. The major european nations contribution has been small. USA, nordic and eastern European country have done more in %GDP terms. For example, EU nations have only sent Ukraine about 1/3 the amount of artillery ammunition they originally promised, which is critical for the sorts of attrition battles happening in Ukraine.
Australian defence economist Perun gives a good summary in his weekly video report.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nQLI8xnINqk
I accidentally briefly had a News service on (normally watching SBS including their afternoon programmes from the USA – if not out to lunch!!)
The defeated Liberal Party candidate was frothing at the mouth that, at the general election “We are coming to get Albanese”
The hatred was palpable (and with an accent noting the hatred we see elsewhere around the World including, unfortunately, in the USA with Trump – something I for one do not wish to see as a factor in Australia noting those who marched against Covid protocols which was concerning)
It dawned on me that the Liberal Party (and the Nationals) no longer have articulate, well presented candidates
The criteria is hating Labor and hating whoever the Labor leader is – and relying on media to manifest that hatred
And being a Pentecostal or of the IPA
It is no wonder the LNP is losing their former blue ribbon seats to articulate Independent candidates
And otherwise pandering to who they are pandering to – preaching hate from their pulpits
Absolutely reliant on Regional and Rural Queensland for their representation being at all significant
John Black, per sprocket_:
‘… we found the biggest pro-Liberal swings in booths containing male construction workers, particularly tradies who drove a truck to work. It’s probably fair to conclude Labor’s “Ute Tax” wasn’t a big hit in a seat containing 1½ times the national average of construction workers.’
Alternatively, it’s probably fair to conclude that a lot of those tradies voted PHON or UAP last time, but didn’t have that option this time.
The pursuit by the Liberal party and Peter Dutton of nuclear power to replace coal as a policy is so obviously a cynical ploy at having a policy that everyone knows wont ever happen.
But it’s such a strange policy to be trying to sell.
It just feels so completely tone deaf to me, and the only thing that seems to be cutting through for PD. Oh yeah he wants nuclear power. How can that even remotely win any votes, which is the real aim of policy positions, even if they are a fake position. It certainly wont win any Teal seats, and how does it enhance the outer suburb strategy the Libs have tacked their colours to?
Here we go again:
“The criteria is hating Labor and hating whoever the Labor leader is …”
Indeed: in the previous thread there was a post about the Liberal member for Flinders congratulating Jodie Belyea … and copping a torrent of abuse from fellow Liberals.
And in regard the identification of the “spy”, the invitation is for the individual to out themselves
Why haven’t they?
And who, if anyone, is actively advising them to do so to prevent all from being implicated?
Noting certain political players are seeking a name from others
I saw criticism of the timing of the fuel standards policy, being labeled as a ute tax. There were suggestions that the policy could have been released after the Dunkley byelection.
But in my view the timing was spot on, it was a good chance to see some real data on how voters view it, see how the Liberals might try to counter it through a scare campaign, and then give the Labor party time before the next election to sharpen their responses.
Mostly Interested @ #27 Monday, March 4th, 2024 – 8:18 am
The figures in the Resolve Strategic poll last week suggest that Dutton is gaining traction with his Nuclear push. It’s the ‘Zero Emissions’ line, apparently, which is appealing to younger people. Sure, it’s a simplistic read of the whole Nuclear issue, but it resonates.
This policy, of course, as you point out, ignores the facts about introducing Nuclear Power to Australia. That it will take 20+ years to get it on the ground and so it’s likely just a subterfuge to continue to enable coal and gas.
I think this is where Labor need to get more vocal with the community. Point this out. Repeatedly.
Socrates @ #24 Monday, March 4th, 2024 – 8:11 am
Thanks for this, Soc. tl:dr They must walk the talk.
C@t, I guess the younger generation just haven’t had the cultural immersion into why nuclear is such a poor idea.
They wont remember any of the ban the bomb protests here in Australia, nor the violent anti nuclear power protests of the late 70s and early 80s in the UK. The question of nuclear powered ships in A/NZ ports. The additional generation(s) between the end of the pacific war, schools doing paper cranes as part of remembrance of the two bombs dropped on Japan. No recollection of the arguments over the third uranium mine in the 80s. The plethora of made for TV movies that existed during the late soviet era. Even the Fukushima nuclear accident didnt seem to get the deep cultural shock that Three Mile Island and Chernobyl had.
My rather poorly illustrated point being that as usual, the further humans get in time from generational memories the more likely we are to revisit the factors that made those memories in the first place.
Thank you, BK.
‘China’s leading spy agency has been revealed as the organisation behind the sustained targeting of Australians detailed by the nation’s spy chief in his annual threat assessment. Nick McKenzie writes that in an exclusive interview with the SMH and 60 Minutes, ASIO Director General Mike Burgess has separately hit back at calls for him to identify the “traitor” ex-politician who he accused of betraying the nation in last week’s threat assessment.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/china-revealed-as-country-behind-spy-chief-s-unnamed-a-team-20240303-p5f9cr.html‘
——————————————-
Burgess must go.
(I make the following comments on the basis of a personal belief that the politician concerned was a Labor MP.)
1. The timing of his original announcement about an Australian politician had direct political ramifications in a by-election week. There is nothing in his reasons to support that timing.
2. Burgess gave as one of his reasons for not naming the A Team or the politician is that they would learn how ASIO had gathered information. This cannot be true. Firstly, the A Team would know which Australian politician they turned. They knew who they were when Burgess made his announcement. Burgess has now named the A Team. There is now no reason for him not to name the politician. As a general principle in a democracy, voters should know who that politician was.
3. Burgess’s original reason for not naming the politician was that this would let the A Team know how ASIO nobbled him. This does not even remotely pass the pub test.
4. Burgess is now communicating with the Australian people via an ‘exclusive’ interview with a single journalist. WTF? It is a matter of national security interest. Burgess’s announcements, increasingly scatty as they are, should be made via national and open means. If you are in a hole, stop digging.
5. Burgess is talking as if there is now nothing to see here and it is time to move on. If there is nothing to see here why has he drawn attention to it.
6. Burgess was appointed by Dutton. Dutton had access to ultra briefings. As a matter of national security Dutton would have been briefed on who the politician was. Dutton has announced that he would lay down money on it being a Labor politician. Has Dutton used his access to national security briefings for party political purposes during an election week? Is Dutton therefore compromised in such a way as to raise serious questions about his fitness to be prime minister? There must be an inquiry whether he abused access to national security briefings.
7. Burgess is now communicating with the Australian people via an ‘exclusive’ interview. FMD. This is a matter of national interest, not just for any readership of the SMH who might have a particular interest in his increasingly scatty remarks.
8. Burgess is talking as if things are done and dusted. Really? The politician committed a crime while he was in office. The first question is whether ASIO briefed the AFP. If so, did the AFP, itself heavily politicized, act on the brief of evidence? Were charges laid? Was there some sort of secret trial? Was there a conviction?
9. Is the absence of a conviction the real reason that Burgess can’t name a name? And, in the absence of a conviction, how can Burgess state categorically that a politician is a criminal? (I note that this is generally a grey area where dozens of politicians could be questioned about foreign influence. I wish this was not so, but it is so.) In terms of the rule of law, there is a deeply troubling proposition here. Burgess sees himself as judge, jury and executioner.
10. Burgess has put Albanese is a difficult situation. Albanese should sack Burgess if he does not resign. But Albanese can not sack Burgess without becoming the target of scurrilous attacks that he is protecting a Labor politician.
11. As a result of Burgess the reputations of all politicians have been put at risk. There has been rampant speculation about the identify of the guilty party. There have been various public exculpations. Our democracy is in serious enough trouble without the sort of tripe laid on by Burgess.
Burgess must go.
He has meddled seriously in Australian politics. He has politicized ASIO is a party political way. He has shifted ground on his ‘reasons’ for so doing. He has klutzed his comms. He has raised serious questions about whether the rule of law was actually applied to an alleged major Australian criminal. He has raised serious questions about the role of both ASIO and the AFP. He has triggered Dutton to compromise himself.
C@tmomma from previous thread:
In regard to adjusting your monthly submission. Each month when my submission has been taken I receive an email from Press Patron informing me, contained in the email is a link that allows me to adjust the amount should I wish. Clicking on the link will allow you to sign into your Press Patron account and adjust the amount commencing the next the money is paid.
Hope this helps. Cheers, T
sprocket_ @ #8 Monday, March 4th, 2024 – 5:58 am
John Black’s election analyses are rubbish. They use tiny bits of ill-defined data to bear huge conclusions. I’m surprised anyone still gives them any credibility as they have been debunked time and time again.
#weatheronPB
Thin grey clouds attempt,
to spoil the happy sunshine,
and the cool rich air.
“ The ACT government has apologised to former Liberal minister Linda Reynolds and paid substantial damages over accusations by former chief prosecutor Shane Drumgold during Bruce Lehrmann’s rape case that the senator had engaged in “disturbing conduct” that included political interference in the police investigation.
Senator Reynolds launched defamation action in December in the wake of findings by the Sofronoff board of inquiry that Mr Drumgold’s allegations against her were baseless and “grossly unethical”.
The settlement is believed to be the fifth successful legal action by the former defence minister over allegations against her,”
Good. There’s a few posters here who should take note – but they probably aren’t worth anything.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/linda-reynolds-wins-apology-and-damages-over-shane-drumgold-political-interference-slur/news-story/be68cebd993c9e9ded95e6f688fb3606
I find it quite interesting that in the lead up to the Dunkley by-election, everyone was talking about how there would be a sympathy vote for labor, and then everyone is surprised when labors primary vote didn’t move…
I’m very surprised that the green vote collapsed in the way that it did, and in the light of that I do give credit to the ALP machine for holding on to the seat.
“A vote for Labor is a vote in Peta Murphy’s memory” was the best message Labor could have possibly run with and I believe you can see that in the results.
Also, the LNP should work to secure ON preferences, as their are some dissatisfied Rightwing Labor voters who will vote for ON but not for the LNP.
Former ACT chief prosecutor Shane Drumgold will on Monday learn if a report that found he engaged in serious malpractice and grossly unethical behaviour during the prosecution of Bruce Lehrmann will be quashed, or upheld.
After less than three weeks of deliberation, Acting Justice Steven Kaye will deliver a judgment ruling on whether former judge Walter Sofronoff KC displayed a bias when conducting an inquiry into Mr Drumgold’s conduct during the Lehrmann case.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/shane-drumgold-vs-walter-sofronoff-decision-to-be-handed-down/news-story/df0cd09ac58858e7dc3843212233d9d1
Today, Melbourne will host the 50th ASEAN-Australian summit. It will mark the 50th anniversary of Australia becoming a Dialogue Partner. And, since 2014, we have been a Strategic Partner. The main aims of our partnership are strategic, economic and cultural co-operation.
ASEAN is important to us. Our two way trade exceeds that which we have with the U.S., the E.U. Or Japan. There are over a million people living in Australia who have South East Asian heritage.
ASEAN countries are fiercely protective of their sovereignty, and perhaps the greatest impediment to our relationship is our lack of independence in regard to U.S. strategic policy in the region, our ‘deputy sheriff’ status. These countries have relationships with China going back many centuries and, despite China’s actions in the South China Sea, wish to remain neutral. The outlier is the Phillipines, who are drawing defensively closer to the U.S. in the face of Chinese aggression.
Our relationship with ASEAN is further complicated by the politically repressive nature of a number of their governments. In particular, Myanma’s military junta is engaged in a bloody civil war with its political opponents and ethnic minorities, involving numerous human rights violations. On Saturday, hundreds of Myanma, Cambodian, Lao and Vietnamese attended a protest at Melbourne’s Parliament, and were addressed by Labor Federal MP Julian Hill.
It is worth remembering Paul Keating’s 1994 words:
“If we do not succeed in the Asia-Pacific, we succeed nowhere…
We have no great and powerful patron in this. We have to make our own way, in our own way.”
NSW chief prosecutor Sally Dowling SC has cautioned her staff against running meritless rape cases and urged them to axe matters that have “questions of credibility and reliability”, as she comes under fire from multiple judges who claim her office prosecutes sexual assault cases that have no hope of securing a conviction.
The warning comes as a staff member from within Ms Dowling’s office told The Australian the judges were “correct” in their claims, blowing the whistle on a culture in which they said junior solicitors felt pressured to progress with unverifiable allegations.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/legal-affairs/nsw-dpp-sally-dowling-warns-staff-against-meritless-rape-cases/news-story/43c3ed5d595b141dd1db28af48cb3ee2
In relation to the suggestions about targeting western Sydney migrant communities around Coalition support of Israel, Labor’s caught in the same bind there as Biden and Starmer overseas – they’re being relatively tame in their approach to criticism of Israeli policy, which prevents them really distinguishing themselves. Look at Michigan for how well the “look, we’re not exactly speaking out for your relatives, but the other side suck worse” is playing out amongst Arab-American voters.
Labor people who think the usual annual indexation is a gift to people on welfare: for the love of god, get over yourselves. You don’t realise how bad you make Labor look when you act like it’s something people on welfare should be grateful for. It’s the kind of subconscious contempt that starts to make Labor supporters look not very different from the Libs. The social media behaviour of hardcore Labor supporters towards people on welfare is just kicking themselves in the head repeatedly among that demographic, and even usually wise Labor people don’t have a lot of insight about it.
Again, people who can’t see the connection between large swings against the Greens in uber-wealthy Mount Eliza and a very deliberate, public pivot by the Greens towards economic policies that run counter to the interests of those uber-wealthy voters (The Age had a Liberal MP poking at his own side by suggesting that Max Chandler-Mather was effectively the Shadow Minister for Housing at this point) have so badly lost the capability to be objective about anything political that they don’t belong on a psephology site.
Queensland’s opposition has called for the Integrity Commissioner to investigate the links of former Labor cabinet minister Kate Jones to a lobbying firm that was set up as Steven Miles became Premier.
Liberal National Party spokeswoman Fiona Simpson said there were “serious questions to answer” by Mr Miles, elected last December as Premier in a partyroom vote with the factional assistance of Ms Jones.
It was revealed by The Weekend Australian that Canberra-based public relations and lobbying firm Akin Agency – for which Ms Jones is a “specialist consultant” – had expanded into Queensland, registering eight clients just a day after the factional deal was struck for Mr Miles to replace Annastacia Palaszczuk.
Ms Jones’s involvement with the firm is absent from the firm’s mandatory declaration on the Queensland Lobbyist Register or mentioned on her LinkedIn page.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/queensland-liberals-seek-integrity-call-on-labor-lobbyist-links/news-story/43eb676806c6e4f777b0fb1a12d03c7b
And Biden’s airdrops
Rainman @ #972 Sunday, March 3rd, 2024 – 10:31 pm
BeauSyphilis actually thinks that confronting three men in their undies waving white flags is an “engagement”. That’s what they taught him as a young feller, when he went to ‘killing strangers’ school, to fulfil his life’s ambition.
Thanks BK – however you did not include Sean Kelly’s commentary re Dunkley, including a shout out to WB…
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/how-low-can-they-go-byelection-exposed-our-cheap-and-tinny-politics-20240301-p5f94o.html
Ute Tax; small nuclear reactors: there’s an opportunity for a vote-winning policy meld here. I’d vote for Dutton if I could have my own small-nuclear-reactor powered Cruiser to do the Big Circle, loaded up, towing the van, without ever having to refuel. Grey nomad bliss.
President Zelenskyy on the apparent willingness of the Polish government to pander to pro-Russian, anti-Ukrainian “farmers’ protests” (really, ‘Rage Farmers’ – thank you, C@tmomma!):
“The situation at the Polish border has long gone too far both economically and morally, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said.
“It is necessary to finally find a solution to the situation on the Polish border, which has long gone beyond [any limits of] both economics and morality.
It is impossible to explain how the difficulties that a bleeding country is going through can be used in a domestic political struggle. But we will overcome this.
I am confident that Ukraine is able to withstand [the pressure], achieve its goals and defeat Russian terror. Together we can ensure this.”
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/03/3/7444796/
Ukrainska Pravda has these stories on Poland’s ongoing importation of Russian agricultural produce through Belarus, even while Poles attack Ukrainian grain shipments and spill them out onto roads and railway tracks:
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/articles/2024/02/29/7444388/
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/articles/2024/02/29/7444407/
Clearly, many otherwise genuinely distressed Poles have been misled by Russian disinformation into taking out their anxiety upon the already suffering Ukrainians. This is why Russian disinformation must be countered with truth throughout the West, in every forum possible.
Luigi Smith says:
Monday, March 4, 2024 at 9:43 am
“Ute Tax; small nuclear reactors: there’s an opportunity for a vote-winning policy meld here. I’d vote for Dutton if I could have my own small-nuclear-reactor powered Cruiser to do the Big Circle, loaded up, towing the van, without ever having to refuel. Grey nomad bliss.”
Your insurance premiums would go sky high every time you opened the bonnet…
Brillant idea nonetheless.