First up, developments ahead of the Dunkley by-election, which Rachel Baxendale of The Australian reported yesterday was “unlikely to be held before late February”:
• A Liberal preselection ballot scheduled for January 14 is expected to include Frankston mayor Nathan Conroy; Donna Hope, who as Donna Bauer held the state seat of Carrum from 2010 to 2014 and is now an electorate officer to Chris Crewther, former federal member for Dunkley and now state member for Mornington; Bec Buchanan, another staffer to Crewther and the party’s state candidate for Carrum in 2022; and Sorrento real estate agent David Burgess, who was on the party’s Legislative Council ticket for Eastern Victoria in 2022.
• Paul Sakkal of The Age today reports the widower of the late Labor member Peta Murphy, Rod Glover, is being encouraged to seek preselection by “senior Labor figures”. The report describes Glover as a “respected former staffer to Kevin Rudd, university professor and public policy expert”. Also mentioned in Rachel Baxendale’s report were Madison Child, an “international relations and public policy graduate in her mid twenties who grew up in Frankston”, and has lately worked as an electorate officer to Murphy; Georgia Fowler, a local nurse who ran in Mornington at the November 2022 state election; and Joshua Sinclair, chief executive of the Committee for Frankston and Mornington Peninsula.
Other preselection news:
• Tim Wilson has confirmed he will seek Liberal preselection to recover the Melbourne seat of Goldstein following his defeat at the hands of teal independent Zoe Daniel in 2022. Paul Sakkal of The Age reports he is “unlikely to face a challenger”.
• Lydia Lynch of The Australian today reports nominations for Liberal National Party preselection will close on January 15 in the inner Brisbane seat of Ryan, which the party lost to Elizabeth Watson-Brown of the Greens in 2022, and the Gold Coast seat of McPherson, which will be vacated with the retirement of Karen Andrews. The front-runner in the former case is said to be Maggie Forrest, barrister and the party’s honorary legal adviser. In addition to the previously identified Ben Naday, Leon Rebello and David Stevens in McPherson (the first two being rated the front-runners) is Adam Fitzgibbons, head of public affairs at Coles. Party insiders are said to be “increasingly concerned” about the emergence of a “McPherson Matters” group that is preparing a teal independent bid for the seat.
• Lily McCaffrey of the Herald-Sun reports Emanuele Cicchiello, deputy principal Lighthouse Christian College deputy principal, has been preselected as Liberal candidate for Aston, the Melbourne seat that was lost to the party in a historic by-election result on April 1. Cicchiello ran unsuccessfully in Bruce in 2013 and has made numerous other bids for preselection.
• Rochelle Pattison, chair of Transgender Victoria and director of corporate finance firm Chimaera Capital, has nominated for Liberal preselection in Kooyong, joining an existing field consisting of Amelia Hamer, Susan Morris and Michael Flynn.
• The New South Wales Liberal Party website records two unheralded federal election candidates in Sam Kayal, a local accountant who will again run in Werriwa following an unsuccessful bid in 2022, and Katie Mullens, conservative-aligned solicitor at Barrak Lawyers who ran for the state seat of Parramatta in March and has now been preselected for the federal seat of the same name.
Polling news:
• The Courier-Mail sought to read the temperature of Queensland politics post-Annastacia Palaszczuk without breaking the budget by commissioning a uComms robopoll, crediting the Liberal National Party opposition with a two-party lead of 51-49. The only detail provided on primary votes was that the LNP was on 36.2% and Labor 34.4% – no indication was provided as to whether this was exclusive of the uncommitted, which is often not the case withuComms. Steven Miles was viewed positively by 42.7% and negatively by 27.6%, with only the positive rating of 37.8% provided for David Crisafulli. A forced response question on preferred premier had Crisafulli leading Miles by 52.2-47.8. True to the Courier-Mail style guide, the report on this unremarkable set of numbers included the words “startling”, “explosive”, “whopping” and “stunning”. The initial report on Tuesday was accompanied by a hook to a follow-up that promised to tell “who Queenslanders really wanted as Annastacia Palaszczuk’s replacement”. The answer was revealed the next day to be Steven Miles, favoured by 37.8% over Shannon Fentiman on 35.0% and Cameron Dick on 27.1%. The poll was conducted December 21 and 22 from a sample of 1911.
• RedBridge Group has a poll of Victorian state voting intention showing Labor leading 55.9-44.1, little different to the 55.0-45.0 result at the November 2022 election. The primary votes are Labor 37% (36.7% at the election), Coalition 36% (34.5%) and Greens 13% (11.5%). Extensive further results include leadership ratings inclusive of “neither approve nor disapprove” option that find Jacinta Allan viewed positively by 24%, negatively by 30% and neutrally by 32%, John Pesutto at 16% positive, 36% neutral and 29% negative, and Greens leader Samantha Ratnam at 14% positive, 29% neutral and 35% negative. The poll was conducted December 2 to 12 from a sample of 2026.
• Nine Newspapers published results from Resolve Strategic on Thursday on whether various politicians were viewed positively, neutrally, negatively or not at all, which it had held back from its last national poll nearly a month ago. Whereas a similar recent exercise by Roy Morgan simply invited respondents to identify politicians they did and didn’t trust, this one took the to-my-mind more useful approach of presenting respondents with a set list of forty names. In the federal sphere, the five most positively rated were Penny Wong (net 14%, meaning the difference between her positive and negative results), Jacqui Lambie (10%), Jacinta Price (6%), David Pocock (5%) and Tanya Plibersek (3%). The lowest were Scott Morrison (minus 35%), Lidia Thorpe (minus 29%, a particularly remarkable result given what was presumably modest name recognition), Barnaby Joyce (minus 27%), Pauline Hanson (minus 25%) and, interestingly, Bob Katter (minus 15%). Of state leaders, Chris Minns (plus 14%) and David Crisafulli (plus 9%) did notably well, and John Pesutto (minus 7%) and the since-departed Annastacia Palaszczuk (minus 17%) notably poorly. The poll was conducted November 29 to December 3 from a sample of 1605.
Bystandersays:
Sunday, January 7, 2024 at 2:25 pm
Entropy posted
Quote:
“Isn’t it enough to see that a garden is beautiful without having to believe that there are fairies at the bottom of it too?”
Only until you start wondering where the garden (and everything else) actually came from in the first place. Then it is not quite so simple.
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In the beginning there was quantum mechanics and really crazy things happened there. It wasn’t till the universe had expanded beyond the realms in which quantum mechanics held sway. Did anything sensible begin to happen.
Quote: “The universe is not only stranger than we imagine; it is stranger than we can imagine.”
nath: “Some atheists are just as obnoxious as some of the religious. However, they at least don’t think they have God on their side.”
But some of them – eg, the Dawkins acolytes who tried to get everyone to call them “Brights” – think they are cleverer than everyone else, which is just as bad IMO.
One of the big misunderstandings of Dawkins and those of his ilk is that they can’t look at religion from any perspective other than as a rival epistemology to science. But, while the epistomological concepts of most religions are pretty silly, they also provide important insights and inspirations in the realms of philosophy, music, the fine arts, storytelling, psychology and sociology.
Take a religious festival such as Mexico’s el Día de Muertos (“Day of the Dead”): their Halloween festival. It can be attacked as propounding stupid non-scientific ideas about life after death. And, for that matter, it can also be attacked as a recent reinvention of a long-lost Aztec culture reminiscent of the way that Walter Scott almost singlehandedly reinvented a Scots tradition of clans and kilts and what have you in the early nineteenth century.
But, though scientifically ridiculous and a bit phony, for the Mexican people of today, el Día de Muertos plays a positive role in helping them to deal with a fact that we all understand intellectually, but find extremely difficult to grasp at an emotional level: that we ourselves, all of our family, and everyone else we know will, in the relatively near future, be dead and gone from this world forever.
One can appreciate the emotional, philosophical and artistic “truth” of such rituals even if one is not a doubt-free religious believer. No atheist whom I’ve ever encountered truly gets this.
One can appreciate the emotional, philosophical and artistic “truth” of such rituals even if one is not a doubt-free religious believer. No atheist whom I’ve ever encountered truly gets this.
_________
Of course they do. I bet there are many atheists who participate in that ritual. In the same sense that I and many atheists participate in Christmas.
There are questions to answer.
If not god, who is going to save the King?
‘ but find extremely difficult to grasp at an emotional level: that we ourselves, all of our family, and everyone else we know will, in the relatively near future, be dead and gone from this world forever.”
————————————————————————-
The closest on can get to immortality is to have ones ideas pass down from generation to generation. My prediction is that Einstein’s Energy=Mass by speed of light squared will still be believed. Well after all the current religions have gone the way of what we now call Greek, Egyptian and Persian mythology.
In that way science also celebrates the dead.
Quote: “The key to immortality is first living a life worth remembering.”
I note that Murdoch operative Bolt is going after Chris Bowen today in the H/S.
It confirms my suspicion that Bowen is rogue operator within the fossil fuel aligned Labor party who is actually trying to do the right thing re climate policy.
So 1 unit of Abbott is 19 May 2024. Let’s see how many Abbott units Albo manages to put in. Any takers for 2 or more units of Abbott for Albo?
It’s also time to consider who could be the Gold Sophie winner for the next election (ie someone of Ministerial rank who loses when their party is re-elected, Sophie Panopolous being the original winner and Kristina Keneally the Gold Sophie Winner of 2022). My tip Pat Conroy – 5% margin in Newy. Could be a dark horse for the Gold Sophie this year?
Rex Douglassays:
Sunday, January 7, 2024 at 4:01 pm
I note that Murdoch operative Bolt is going after Chris Bowen today in the H/S.
It confirms my suspicion that Bowen is rogue operator within the fossil fuel aligned Labor party who is actually trying to do the right thing re climate policy.
———————————————————————-
I don’t get your logic here. As Bolt has nothing to do with mainstream Labor belief. If Bowen was being attacked by someone with links to the Labor Party you may have a point. To claim that Bolt is prosecuting a case for the so called by you “fossil fuel aligned Labor party” is ludicrous to the extreme. Bolt only prosecutes cases for the far right of the LNP if you haven’t noticed.
Lars Von Triersays:
Sunday, January 7, 2024 at 4:02 pm
So 1 unit of Abbott is 19 May 2024. Let’s see how many Abbott units Albo manages to put in. Any takers for 2 or more units of Abbott for Albo?
It’s also time to consider who could be the Gold Sophie winner for the next election (ie someone of Ministerial rank who loses when their party is re-elected, Sophie Panopolous being the original winner and Kristina Keneally the Gold Sophie Winner of 2022). My tip Pat Conroy – 5% margin in Newy. Could be a dark horse for the Gold Sophie this year?
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My tip is anyone who gets their tips from LVT will lose lots of money at the bookmakers. My other tip will be that Nath will claim that LVT tips are usually very accurate. Which makes me suspect Nath could be a bookmaker.
“Religious ‘feelings’ are simply make-believe.”
Strange that this isn’t applied to the Aboriginal religion. Billions of dollars worth of undersea pipelines are being delayed because of imaginary spirits.
And…Malthus Lives!!! Huzzah!!!
Stronger-than-expected jobs data in the United States is casting doubt on how fast and how far the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates, and pouring cold water on hopes of rate relief from the Reserve Bank of Australia as early as June.
The local sharemarket is set to move within spitting distance of its record high ahead of the release of US and Australian monthly inflation data this week that will give central banks clues on whether they can contemplate easing.
US employers hired more workers than expected last month while raising wages at a solid clip, bolstering hopes that the central bank was poised to achieve a soft economic landing. But enduring strength in the jobs market has led bond traders to scale down the number of expected rate cuts in 2024 to five, from six, with the first one priced for May.
Futures traders on Friday imply a 74 per cent chance the Fed will start easing its funds rate in March – from 88 per cent earlier last week. “Solid US jobs growth, cautious Fed minutes, and a still robust US economy raise doubts about markets’ aggressive Fed rate cut expectations,” said Christian Keller, head of economics research at Barclays. “Markets’ insistence of Fed cuts by March may turn out to be overly confident. The Fed minutes suggest that the FOMC members remain quite reluctant to reduce rates very soon.”
Traders have also reduced their expectations of rate cuts in Australia. Bond futures are fully priced for an RBA easing in September, from June, and ascribe an around 50 per cent chance of a follow-up move by December, from more than 100 per cent previously indicated last week.
https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/rba-rate-relief-delayed-after-strong-us-job-report-20240107-p5evlx
Entropy
Murdoch is invested in fossil fuels and is against renewables. That’s very clear.
Labor is all fcked up re fossil fuels. A total basket case of different agenda’s. Head office is invested in fossil fuels via superfunds and political donations. But there are a few like Bowen who at least try to progress renewables.
Bowen is clearly doing something useful re renewables if Murdoch has Bolt attacking him. That’s the logic.
Nath / Meher Baba
nath “Some atheists are just as obnoxious as some of the religious. However, they at least don’t think they have God on their side.”
MB “But some of them – eg, the Dawkins acolytes who tried to get everyone to call them “Brights” – think they are cleverer than everyone else, which is just as bad IMO.”
Despite being an atheist I am happy to have a discussion about life, faith and ethics with a reasoning theist of any faith.
I don’t like arrogant or dismissive atheists any more than I like fundamentalist theists. Both are unhelpful to their causes.
Entropy posted
Entropy
You must be fairly well read to keep coming up with these interesting little quotes. Here’s one I came across recently from Mark Twain that tickled my fancy:
“It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.” (He was an agnostic, the same as me).
FUBARsays:
Sunday, January 7, 2024 at 4:30 pm
“Religious ‘feelings’ are simply make-believe.”
Strange that this isn’t applied to the Aboriginal religion.
————————————————————————-
It isn’t applied to any religion not just indigenous ones. Certain land claims, that you seem to support, fall down completely. if you don’t believe what the religion claims.
FUBARsays:
Sunday, January 7, 2024 at 4:30 pm
“Religious ‘feelings’ are simply make-believe.”
Strange that this isn’t applied to the Aboriginal religion. Billions of dollars worth of undersea pipelines are being delayed because of imaginary spirits.
______________
I’m not sure where this is occurring but what has the truth of religion got to do with cultural heritage?
Bystandersays:
Sunday, January 7, 2024 at 4:46 pm
Entropy posted
“The universe is not only stranger than we imagine; it is stranger than we can imagine.”
Entropy
You must be fairly well read to keep coming up with these interesting little quotes. Here’s one I came across recently from Mark Twain that tickled my fancy:
“It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.” (He was an agnostic, the same as me).
————————————————————–
Mark Twain is like the USA’s answer to Oscar Wilde, both are very good sources for quotes.
Mark Twain certainly made some poor investment decisions. He may of been thinking of some of the proposals he was convinced into investing in.
It’s fairly telling how claims of Indigenous burial sites are dismissed by many yet if I wanted to develop the Melbourne General Cemetery into housing I would not be allowed because thousands of Christians are buried there.
Rex Douglassays:
Sunday, January 7, 2024 at 4:37 pm
Entropy
Murdoch is invested in fossil fuels and is against renewables. That’s very clear.
Bowen is clearly doing something useful re renewables if Murdoch has Bolt attacking him. That’s the
logic.
———————————————————————-
I have no problems with what you say above. I fail to see how it supports this claim you made though:
“It confirms my suspicion that Bowen is rogue operator within the fossil fuel aligned Labor party”.
As Bolt is clearly working for Murdoch’s agenda not that of the Labor Party and you fail to provide any evidence that Murdoch and Labor’s agenda are aligned here. As all evidence suggest both Murdoch and Bolt will act against the Labor Party at every possible opportunity.
Q: Some atheists are just as obnoxious as some of the religious..
really? Are radical atheists trying to ban abortion? OR VAD? Or homosexualiy? Or contraception? Are they saying non atheists will burn in hell for all eternity?
Do they get tax exemptions, govt grants and projects? Atheist counselors in every school, and in every military unit?
Important to remember Andrew Bolt is a former Labor staffer.
Lars Von Triersays:
Sunday, January 7, 2024 at 5:10 pm
Important to remember Andrew Bolt is a former Labor staffer.
———————————————————————
About as important as remembering Mark Latham was a former Labor leader i suspect. Both have taken a very different path since then.
Quote: “Losing your way on a journey is unfortunate. But, losing your reason for the journey is a fate more cruel.”
Timelapse shows giant iceberg – three times larger than New York City – drifting through southern ocean
https://www.independent.co.uk/tv/climate/iceberg-antarctica-southern-ocean-b2474030.html
Torchbearersays:
Sunday, January 7, 2024 at 5:09 pm
Q: Some atheists are just as obnoxious as some of the religious..
really? Are radical atheists trying to ban abortion? OR VAD? Or homosexualiy? Or contraception? Are they saying non atheists will burn in hell for all eternity?
Do they get tax exemptions, govt grants and projects? Atheist counselors in every school, and in every military unit?
————————————————————————-
Once they start knocking on your door and trying to convert you to atheism. Will be the point they become obnoxious. They certainly have never knocked on my door though.
I think the arrogant atheist thing is a red herring. Simply because it is religious institutions and their advocates who are continually encroaching their views onto public policy across various a number of issues.
Secularism is what our government systems are built on. Trying to frame atheists as somehow the same as religious advocates is not only a false, but poor analogy.
Entropy
Exactly
And difficult to argue with.
I too have never had an atheist knock on my door for the sole purpose of converting me to atheism (not that conversion would be needed).
I have however, had LDS, Mormons and and Watchtower Slave people (I forget which denomination they belong to – 7th dayers?) multitudinous times.
Sighs of relief in the Nation’s Capital…Summernats is over for another year.
r/Canberra has been full of stories depicting the annual petrol celebration as a ‘trial’ for the good citizens of Canberra.
Whether or not the time of ICE vehicles is ending ( I’m not so sure yet despite being a recent EV convert) but the atmosphere surrounding a minority of the attendees this year has been especially like an out of control wake.
Women, fast-food workers, the general public seem to be ‘over’ the antics of drunken loons both on foot and in their cars.
It will be interesting what the fall-out will be given every year brings some new outcry over the event that even seasoned exhibitors are now shunning (but to what extent is not quantified)
The Cookers during Covid and their continued presence (very small numbers) has not left the general population too happy with the annual petrol festival.
What do you get when you cross a Mormon and an Anglican?
Someone who knocks at your door for no particular reason.
Predicting chaos is fine. Anything else…
https://citynews.com.au/2024/bom-doing-its-best-amid-chaos-expert-says/?utm_source=mailpoet&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=canberra-daily-today-s-news-today_7801
Conroy is Shortland: not really Newy and closer to 6%.
I don’t think he will get the Golden Sophie
Plagiarism reviews at 20 paces.
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2024/jan/06/neri-oxman-bill-ackman-plagiarism-accusations
Anglicans are just Catholics who want to masturbate and get divorced.
Dog’s Brunch,
Summernats was just on the news. There was a punch on between Security and some pissed patrons. They must have been goading them all day long and Security appears to have just lost it with them. I guess this is what happens when you combine unlimited amounts of alcohol on one side with men who have spent too much time in the gym.
I used to hate Summernats when I lived in Canberra. This year however looks like the imported security staff took the opportunity to pick fights with attendees, one security personnel in particular.
Andrew Bolt is as much like the Labor Party today as Donald Trump is like a Democrat.
Confessions @ #2385 Sunday, January 7th, 2024 – 6:22 pm
It looked to me like boozed up attendees trying it on with Security and so they lost it with them.
OC I am only giving Conroy a 1 in 4 chance of the Golden Sophie.
Its 5.6% margin ( but prior to Conroy was a minimum of 10% for the last 20 years). Conroy got a 1.5% swing to him last election.
Basically ALP = the Liberal and One Nation Vote which are about 40,000 votes each. The difference is 9000 Greens votes.
Think of all those retirees moving to Lake Macquarie including former National ALP President Williamson.
Not one of those security guards looked like they spend any time in the gym.
And the guy pinged on the news actually king hit a passer by who had no idea the hit was coming. I wouldn’t be surprised if charges were laid against him.
nath
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/aussie-court-halts-santos-barossa-pipeline-near-tiwi-islands-2023-11-15/
An underwater rainbow serpent journey might be disrupted – if that isn’t religious rubbish then what is?
fess: “Watchtower Slave people (I forget which denomination they belong to – 7th dayers?) ”
The Watchtower people are the Jay Dubs (ie, Jehovah’s Witnesses). They are a particularly toxic cult that is obsessed with the end of the world, breaks up families, etc. and, most entertainingly of all for my purposes, teaches that there is only room in heaven for 144,000 people but nevertheless has millions of adherents. It’s a paradox I can never resist bringing up with any Jay Dub who accosts me about their ridiculous beliefs
The Jay Dubs aer far worse than the LDS/Mormons or Adventists, both of whom have some weird views, but are reasonably honourable people IMO; eg, the Mormons are pretty much the only “fundamentalists” (not quite the right word for them, but you know what I mean) who have so far been disinclined to give their full support to Trump.
FUBAR says:
Sunday, January 7, 2024 at 6:26 pm
nath
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/aussie-court-halts-santos-barossa-pipeline-near-tiwi-islands-2023-11-15/
An underwater rainbow serpent journey might be disrupted – if that isn’t religious rubbish then what is?
__________
I see nothing about an underwater rainbow serpent in that article. Are you just doing some borderline racist riffing?
Summernats?
Meh.
Whats the story with the Mormons and magic underwear?
LVT: “Whats the story with the Mormons and magic underwear?
Mormons aren’t allowed to have naked sex, so they wear these sort of long john things with buttoned up holes in suitable places that can be opened up when the need arises. I believe they’re called “temple garments.”
The garments have masonic-style symbols on them which I think are meant to promote fertility. The founders of Mormonism drew inspiration from Freemasonry, which is why they call their churches “temples.”
I used to like to tease the Mormons who came to harrass me at my house about their special underwear. But, having made some friends later in life who are former Mormons, I’ve come to the view that the Mormons, while quite bizarre, aren’t the worst people going around. So now I content myself with just slamming the door in their faces.
meher:
My god, how did I forget the JoHos?!
The Mormon rejection of Trump is interesting considering they’ve long been a Republican stronghold.
I recall reading some polling recently that indicated the mormons favour DeSantis over Trump.
fess: “The Mormon rejection of Trump is interesting considering they’ve long been a Republican stronghold.”
I think it’s more of a wariness than an outright rejection. But still good on them.
Talking about Trump and the evangelicals, I have a distant non-relative in the form of my partner’s nephew who is a pretty out there born again preacher who travels the country trying to persaude other Christians that Armageddon is about to occur. His predictions appear to depend to a certain extent on numerology, which I doubt is all that acceptable to many other evangelicals, but that’s his problem.
Anyway, I saw him at Christmas and talked to him for as briefly as I could (which is never easy with these sorts of people). But the subject of the Donald came up and his take is that Trump is possibly the Beast 666 or the Antichrist or some such, and he reckons that a lot of evangelicals around the world feel the same way. But this makes those who are in the US more inclined to vote for him than not, because they are craving the end times, rapture and what have you.
Whatever.
Is it Mormons who were opposed to Trump or just Mitt Romney?
I thought trump carried Utah easily?
FUBAR @ #2390 Sunday, January 7th, 2024 – 6:26 pm
People who believe in Neoliberalism?
nath
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-12-07/federal-court-hears-evidence-in-tiwi-santos-barossa-project-case/103183768
Do you know how to use an internet search engine?